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Everything posted by stringer bell
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Article: The Defensive Dilemma
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Positional flexibility is a good thing for borderline guys. If Chris Herrmann weren't both an acceptable catcher and an adequate corner outfielder, I doubt he would have seen the major leagues and he might be out of baseball. Brian Dinkelman got free health care for life because he could play both second base and the outfield corners. The Twins this year used Pedro Florimon at second and third in Rochester because it certainly appears that he can't hit enough to be a regular, but he might be able to become a three-position utility infielder for someone. Dan Rohlfing of the Red Wings is another guy who can catch and play the outfield corner (plus first base) and it wouldn't surprise me that he gets at least a cup of coffee in the majors because of his versatility. Premium guys like Sano and Buxton won't get moved around. It is telling that the Twins sent Hicks down and used him on the outfield corners, suggesting that his future might be as a utility outfielder, rather than a center fielder. -
Article: The Defensive Dilemma
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I think putting another slow guy (Mauer, Pinto) in the outfield is going exactly the wrong way to improve the defense. The infield is satisfactory at each position, without a real weak link, but not "rangy" unless Santana is the regular shortstop, and I'm not convinced that Danny can be a plus defender at short. Adding a speedy, rangy left fielder and having a regular center fielder would improve things immeasurably. I probably like Schafer more than I should--I love the speed on the bases and he's been pretty good in the OF--but using him more than half the time in the outfield might make the outfield defense more palatable. -
Article: The Defensive Dilemma
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nice conversation. I agree with several things posted, but disagree with quite a few as well. Yes, repetitions will make a player a better fielder. Danny Santana had played less than 10 professional games in the outfield. He has come a long way while learning on the job. If he continued to work on center, he would be adequate as soon as next year IMHO. Lots of talk about Aaron Hicks playing a corner. I just don't see enough bat to play a corner. Arcia was a brutal outfielder last year, he is better this year and I think he can be adequate next year. He's got enough speed and a good arm. He has focused better this year, but still isn't close to a finished product. Having four or maybe five guys play 99% of the outfield innings would help greatly. I think the Twins are moving in the right direction there. Misplays not only come on balls that should be outs, they happen on balls that are legitimate hits. Turning singles into doubles and triples will be alleviated if the pitchers allow less hits in the first place. Game situations caused by better pitching (a healthy lead) will take some more pressure off the defense. Defense and pitching are intertwined. Great defense helps pitching and great pitching helps suspect defense (see Tigers, Detroit). There is plenty of room for the Twins to improve both defensively and on the mound. I think they might improve enough to be interesting next year. -
One man's opinion--the baserunning hasn't been that bad. We have seen some dreadful mistakes, but we often have seen the extra base taken when offered. I hate to use the cliché, but a guy like Dozier, who displayed very good instincts to go with good speed, may be trying to do too much. Schafer is going to make some outs on the bases, but he also will take a whole bunch of extra bases via the stolen base and just being aggressive. Slower guys have to know when to go and I think in large part they have been cautious, but haven't clogged the bases either.
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I pretty much disagree with the posts immediately above me. First of all, Gardenhire has done an excellent job protecting the health of his bullpen. In the past two years at least, there has been minimal lost time in the bullpen. Some of that might be good luck, but Gardenhire tries hard not to pitch guys on three consecutive games and if they go long in one game, they likely get a couple days off. As far as strategy, every manager tries to get LH pitchers in against LH hitters and finds spots for right handers to face primarily right handers, so sure they'll have short outings. Francona used something like eight relievers in a game where he led throughout to maximize matchups. If a guy goes 10-15 pitches, he's probably available to face a couple batters the next day. The pitchers have roles and it helps them to better prepare. They know when they are likely to be used and who they'll face. It is easy to second-guess if the "8th inning guy" gives up the lead with the closer not warmed up. But if for example Casey Fien throws a good eighth, should he be a candidate to go out for the ninth? There are a lot of one inning relievers in baseball. There is less flexibility and that combination makes for seven and eight-man bullpens. Sometimes we see situations where we say "huh", but more often than not there is a reason why the peculiar move or non-move was made.
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Gardy pretty much put Schafer's throw on the two veterans, Dozier and Mauer. Missing cutoff men happens to all teams. I would agree that Arcia has been guilty more than his share. It is part of not being fundamentally sound, not the be-all and end-all.
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I see this year as 75% or more on the pitching staff. The idea was for the not necessarily dominating starters to give innings so that the bullpen wouldn't be overworked, and lately the starters' failures have certainly effected the bullpen. As mentioned above by Platoon, the Twins seem to be in the lowest quartile of fundamental play. I am not really big on productive outs, but getting runners home from third with less than two out has been abysmal all year. Defensive fundamentals have been substandard, as well. I really can't fault lineups or who has played in the big picture, but four 90+ loss seasons is too many and the biggest factor in the game has shown almost no improvement. I think Gardy and Anderson should both go, but I see no real reason to retain Anderson. It is time for someone new to work with the pitchers.
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The Twins have just been swept by the Angels. They were competitive for three games, but got beat up on Sunday. The fact is that, despite a fairly good offense in the five games, the Twins had no chance because the Angels are superior in all facets of the game. At least some of the young guys are playing and a few are thriving. Kennys Vargas is hitting and slugging and Danny Santana is established as a good hitter who has played center field more than his natural position of shortstop. In the last four years, much has been made of the Twins' continuing futility and much of this stems from non-competitive Septembers. It sure looks like the same thing is happening again. Of course, this year, as mentioned above, they are playing some guys who will be around when the roster is turned over. What is particularly disappointing is that there apparently is no one ready to help the pitching staff. We've seen Phil Hughes go out almost every time and give the team a chance to win, Kyle Gibson has faded a bit, but has been satisfactory. Beyond that? Well, Ricky Nolasco has one good start since returning from the DL, Trevor May has improved, but previously was historically bad, the team has gotten nothing out of Tommy Milone. The bullpen is in tatters. All the guys who have been with the team all year seem to be worn out. The late-season reinforcements have been underwhelming and these are the guys that will be getting the first chance if some veteran arms are let go! Maybe this gives guys like Jake Reed and Burdi a quick path to the majors. Maybe it is time for management to change. I have been embarrassed by my favorite team in the last four years and I just don't think it has to be this bad.
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Position Players for 2015--Get used to what you're seeing
stringer bell commented on stringer bell's blog entry in stringer bell's Blog
With both a more effective starting rotation and some flexibility in the relief corps, I believe that a 12-man staff should be the rule rather than the exception. I think that Escobar is an ideal utility man because he plays good defense at many positions, but IMHO he's the best shortstop. If Santana lands the SS job, than Escobar and Nuñez provide a little bit of everything as reserves. I'm still believing in Parmelee, but if another outfielder is acquired, Parmelee is on his way out. Schafer will almost certainly not go through the arbitration process, so the Twins will have to do some "fancy footwork" to keep him in the fold. If Schafer is not back next year, there is room for a free agent in the outfield. Assuming good health, here is my handicap for the marginal players on my list: Suzuki, Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Arcia--100% Santana-95%, Vargas 80%, Pinto 75%, Nuñez, 70%, Hicks 65%, Parmelee 55%, Schafer 50%. Schafer is probably the only one where a contract will be an issue. -
Position Players for 2015--Get used to what you're seeing
stringer bell posted a blog entry in stringer bell's Blog
The Twins will probably lose 90 games this year. That doesn't mean that they will be making wholesale changes of their roster, at least not from the position player standpoint. After watching half of the Angel series, I'm convinced that all of the 13 position players that will head north out of Fort Myers are playing for the Twins right now. Most of the players are givens. A couple of guys will have competition and two of the jewels of the system will probably get their chance sometime in 2015, but what you are seeing is pretty close to what you will get in the spring of 2015. Here's my thirteen players: Regulars--Mauer, Dozier, Escobar, Plouffe, Santana, Hicks, Schafer, Arcia, Vargas, and Suzuki. Bench--Parmelee, Nunez, and Pinto. You notice I listed ten regulars. I am visualizing Santana as a tenth starter, around the infield and outfield. Hicks and Schafer share with Santana in left and center. This is a young lineup (basically) with both power and speed. This is essentially the same lineup that is leading the league in scoring since August 1. If Hicks tanks again, there are alternatives. I have started a thread and stated in other threads that I like both Nuñez and Parmelee as bench players. I also expect that Pinto will gain more time behind the plate next year and that by the end of the season, he may be sharing time or better with Suzuki. With exciting guys like Sano and Buxton perhaps just a phone call away by midseason, one has to be optimistic about the position players. The pitching staff? well, changes have to be made. -
Article: Twins Promote Eight for September
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
OK, I'm going there. Eight plate appearances. Those of you advocating Polanco's recall and competing for a position on the team next year are putting way too much emphasis on eight plate appearances. I believe Eric Fryer had three hits in his first eight plate appearances this year. Does that make him a legitimate prospect? No. Some guys, from Aaron Hicks to Willie Mays go 0-8, does that make them busts? Again, no. Eight plate appearances is simply too small a sample to matter. Polanco, at 20 years old, competed well in High A ball. He wasn't dominant, but he competed well. He hit .281, with a .780 OPS and got a deserved promotion to AA. At New Britain, he was satisfactory, no more, no less. The batting average was OK (.281), but he only had seven extra-base hits and nine walks in a quarter season. Defensively, he's probably not ready, if errors made are any gauge of defensive performance. If Polanco shows the same improvement in 2015, it will make considerably more sense for him to get a late-season look. He then might really be on the cusp of staying in the big leagues, even if he doesn't get a single AAA plate appearance. We know that at 23, Danny Santana was ready offensively. It looks like Kennys Vargas was ready from his 24th birthday on. We also know that at 23 and 24, first round draft choice Aaron Hicks wasn't ready. I certainly haven't seen enough of Polanco to make blanket statements, but I'm sure the Twins get reports from his managers and coaches. If he were truly ready for major league baseball, even a September audition, somebody would have made the case for him. I doubt that has happened. -
Article: Twins Promote Eight for September
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
The only thing bringing up Polanco does is add service time, and that's not a good thing for the team. He's the fourth best shortstop and they sure don't need more than three. Let him master AA at least before he's promoted. -
Let's get specific, who stays and who goes?
stringer bell commented on goulik's blog entry in Blog goulik
Generalities: The bullpen gets turned over for younger, harder throwing arms. After the last month, maybe just a thought might be made about grooming a future closer. More speed and defense in the outfield. I think there's a place for Schafer, not sure about Hicks. If Santana is the shortstop, the Twins could and should keep both Escobar and Nuñez as utility guys. Pinto is my backup catcher, but if a trade is made and there is a more defensive-minded (perhaps LH hitting) young catcher to be traded for, it makes the team more balanced. I count seven guys for five spots in the rotation: Hughes, Gibson Nolasco, Milone, Meyer, May and Pelfrey. While Pelfrey and Milone (and Nolasco) don't look that good right now, things can change in six months. -
Article: The New Top Twins Pitching Prospect?
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Berrios: I've met him and talked to him twice. He seems like a nice young man. The WBC messed up his 2013 and he came back with an outstanding 2014. I think he could see time in the majors next year, but the progression has to continue. As far as the K/9, he didn't pitch that much at NB, so it is SSS (in part). Next year, he should get a half season at AA and we'll probably get a better feel for his dominance or lack thereof. Meyer: I've heard him compared to Scherzer, in that Max didn't get deep into a lot of games in his minor league career, despite great stuff. We have the added factor of a shoulder injury, making the Twins hyper-cautious with him. I look forward to seeing what he can do in big league games and expect that will happen in 2015. -
Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree with JB. Gardenhire is fine as a manager, but sometimes you just need a change for change's sake. The evidence (IMHO) is mounting that whatever message Anderson gives works with less than the average number of pitchers. He and the Twins have been walk-averse, first and foremost, and willing to believe in "pitch to contact", which has become a cruel joke. It worked a lot better when the Twins had above-average fielders at eight of the nine defensive positions. That isn't the case now, and doesn't look like it will be like that any time soon. The position player situation seems far more positive than the pitching despite the near-total loss of a season from two of the top five prospects in baseball. The pitching is poor and the prospects for improvement seem to be getting further and further away. -
Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I would say that consistency is a quality of a good offense. I think that if a pitcher can reasonably count on 3-4 runs every day, he can pitch more comfortably, the infield doesn't have to play in early, the manager doesn't have to feel compelled to play for a run or two to take the lead early (read sacrifice bunts). Consistency would mean strength in the lineup, top to bottom, and production from different means of scoring runs--speed, power, bunching hits. -
Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
There is real progress this year. Look who has been jettisoned. The Twins started the season with a bunch of 30+ guys who were either past their prime or never were very good. Most are gone. They have two (TWO) pretty good options at short, when they started with Florimon. Trevor Plouffe has established himself (as Dozier did in 2013) and Dozier has proven that his breakout wasn't a fluke. The Twins acquired two nice players (Hughes and Suzuki) both now for three years. There is more to be done, no question. Somehow, some way, the pitching needs to be improved dramatically. On the position player front, one key acquisition plus improvement of young players would equal a pretty dynamic and effective offense. -
Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
An ace, yes. More Nolascos, Correias, etc., not so much. Adding an outfielder who can play decent defense in either center or left also makes a lot of sense. Beyond that, I like the position players and believe totally that barring further injuries, the Twins have two perennial All-Stars on the horizon in the next two years. The bullpen needs to be turned over and either from within or without, the startng rotation needs to take giant steps. I am hoping for a new manager and pitching coach next year. It is not that Anderson and Gardenhire aren't competent, but a new voice needs to be in charge. -
Article: A Closer Look at the 2015 Twins
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I continue to believe Escobar has earned starting shortstop for the start of 2015, although his recent slump makes the argument more tenuous. I reluctantly agree that Santana should get the majority of starts at short the rest of the way. I don't think he will produce major league defense despite very good tools. He sure didn't look good in Spring Training. It is time to see. The bat has proven to be legit. It is unfair to Parmelee, but Schafer should be a regular through September. He has been very good in left field and a real spark plug from the bottom of the order. The walk he took to start the eighth inning yesterday was outstanding and his presence on the base paths changed everything that inning. -
Article: Twins Promote Eight for September
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm not defending Bernier's promotion. If he starts more than one or two games, I'll be howling about that. Letting him sit on the bench and using him as a late-inning defensive replacement or pinch-runner is fine. Otherwise, maybe Doug can get a coaching gig. Does he speak Spanish? -
Article: Twins Promote Eight for September
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Romero's future in professional ball isn't with the Twins IMHO. He wasn't promoted when the regular 3rd baseman and one of his primary backups were disabled on the same day. He turns 28 this month, so he's not young, he hit 8 homers for Rochester in almost 500 PAs, so not much power, 0 stolen bases, not much speed and his rep as a defender is substandard. Besides all of this, one of the Twins' mega-prospects is a third baseman--the only position Romero has played with any regularity (40+ games at first in his over 800 minor league games). -
Article: Twins Promote Eight for September
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
During the season, they have established youngsters Santana and Vargas. Regulars certain for next year are Mauer, Dozier, Plouffe, Arcia, and Suzuki. They are returning both Pinto and Hicks. I think that is almost all of the position players that will be heading north from Fort Myers in late March/early April. Within a year from now, we may see Buxton, Rosario, Sano and maybe Polanco. To me, the pitching side is much less defined and predictable. I'm almost certain that, if healthy, Meyer will be promoted before midseason. We'll also see much turnover in the bullpen. There really isn't much to promote right now. -
Article: Twins Promote Eight for September
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Florimon played all three infield spots in Rochester after he was sent down. He made a lot of errors, but that seems to go with playing on minor league fields. -
The top five farm teams all had winning records and three made it to postseason. New Britain had some brutal stretches, but finished just out of the playoffs and Rochester had most of their team recalled at one point or another and came up one game short. Good luck in the playoffs E-Town, Cedar Rapids, and Fort Myers!
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