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stringer bell

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Everything posted by stringer bell

  1. Both players have options. For what it's worth Abel has 50 days of major league service time. Spending two months in Triple A will give the Twins another year of team control under the current rules. Zebby has 1 year and 10 days, so two weeks in St. Paul would net another year of control for Matthews.
  2. Pretty much agree with all of this, although they may try to move Jackson through the DFA process. He hasn't hit. They may also try the same with Kreidler and/or Gray although I doubt they would expose both infielders. I don't think they will DFA Outman despite his poor performance in '24 and '25.
  3. I bit the bullet and asked Google if a guy with less than six years of service on a minor league deal can opt out and Google answered that they cannot unless they negotiated an opt-out. Altavilla might have an opt-out option in his contract, but I doubt it. If he does have an opt-out, I think he's close to a lock to make the Opening Day roster. Google contradicts itself about more veteran players on minor league contracts, but MLB Trade Rumors quotes the Basic Agreement stating that free agents with more than six years of service time who were on a major league roster or Injured List at the close of last season have automatic opt-outs. That would include Urshela, Chafin, Arcia and Hendriks.
  4. Wow, just wow. Twenty spring training at-bats and he's labeled a BUST. Lewis might not be an All-Star, but next to Buxton, he is the best bet to be a 3 WAR or better player on this team IMHO. He's healthy and running well. If his health holds, he'll be fine.
  5. Here’s my take: Since this thread started with Altavilla, he’ll be the first topic. He has experience and a couple good pitches. He’s helped his case in limited work. I think he makes the Opening Day roster. Liam Hendriks is throwing mid-90s and has been pretty effective. I think he’s in as well. Andrew Chafin doesn’t wake up radar guns, but has been an effective reliever for a while. I think he’s the third non-roster pitcher add. #4 is Orlando Arcia. He’s hit a bit in ST and has been a capable shortstop. With the ability to play other positions. Kreidler hasn’t hit this spring or ever in the majors. I don’t think the Twins trust Gray at short. James Outman has had a good ST, as has Roden. Back to Altavilla—He doesn’t have 6 years of service, so I believe he’s doesn’t have the right to opt-out unless it is written in his minor league contract. Gio, Hendriks, Chafin and Arcia should be able to opt-out, so that if any of them don’t make the team, they’ll likely become free agents. Jackson not making the club would add one 40-man spot. Outman could be the second, but I’m not sure the Twins will expose him. After that are tough calls. Maybe Kreidler or Gray could be DFA’d but there isn’t much minor league infield depth and both have an option.
  6. Mid to upper 90s velocity for Altavilla. He is on a minor league contract and hasn't exceeded six years of service. Does he have the right to refuse assignment to the minors. There's about 10 days until Opening Day, so something could happen for him to not make the team. I'm looking at about four non-roster players making the team, which means that four guys would have to be DFA'd. Alex Jackson and James Outman could provide two spots, as they are out of options and do can't be sent to St. Paul without being exposed to all the other teams. I'm not sure who the other guys would be--if Topa is let go, it would open a spot.
  7. Yeah, I think he might end up being the best minor league contract they signed this year. Really good velocity and his Savant page shows some promise. He'll need to throw enough strikes, but if he does, I think he will be effective.
  8. I don't think the cases are similar in terms of what caused the guys to be moved to the bullpen. Varland, for example, had an above average velocity fastball as a starter and I think most of the others weren't impacted by lack of velocity. Yes, it would figure that Ober might pick up a couple mph, but going from 89 to 91 wouldn't make much difference IMHO.
  9. I just can't see Urshela making the team. He is certainly well-regarded, but his offense and defense have diminished quite a bit since his season with the Twins, and he wasn't that good then. If he's willing to go to AAA as a fallback for Lewis he might get a shot, but adding him to the 40-man might be a bit much, especially since the Twins probably will have to make 40-man space for 2-3 pitchers and maybe Orlando Arcia. I think the key thing for Gray is whether he is capable of playing shortstop. He looks like a better hitter than Arcia or Kreidler and I don't think being a left handed hitter is much of a detriment
  10. Maeda pitched out of the bullpen 7-8 years ago, when BPs weren't built as much on velocity, as they are now and I believe he was throwing closer to mid-90s with his fastball then, as well. I can't think of anyone in the last several years who lost a rotation spot substantially because of diminished velocity and converted to a successful reliever.
  11. Ober doesn't profile as a reliever IMHO. Either he makes his stuff work in the rotation or he's a release candidate, similar in some ways to Kenta Maeda during his time in the AL. Since he never threw really hard, his margin for error has always been pretty small, but he managed to be good until last season.
  12. I've not had him as making the club since Spring Training started and as noted, he hasn't done much if anything to move the needle. That said, he has an option remaining, and it is probable he'll get a chance with the Twins at some point, probably as a short-side platoon guy. I'd be pulling for Wagaman a lot more if he was a good defender at any of the corner spots, but the numbers say he isn't.
  13. With the exceptions of Lee and Wallner, this looks like a roster evaluation game. Most of these guys could make the team, but none are guaranteed. Urshela is probably a remote possibility unless there is an infield injury.
  14. Don't really want to second guess you Squirrel, but the data says that Correa was no longer a GREAT SS last year or the year before. His range is on a par with Lee, although he does have a much stronger arm. There is a reason why he went to third base for the Astros.
  15. .Luke Keaschall played infield and outfield prior to having elbow surgery. He played second base exclusively in the field in 2025 as he was recovering arm strength. His defense at second base was below average. Because he profiles as a solid or better offensive player, it may be just fine for Luke to play other positions and perhaps settle on one that is not second base. Personally, I think he may end up as a first baseman when all is said and done. Not every player can be Willi Castro versatile and trying to make Keaschall into that would most likely be a mistake. However, being able to move him to another position to get a better defender in the game could be a good idea. Given the Twins' current roster, I really don't see much opportunity for Keaschall to go to left field and if the choice is to move Keaschall to get Clemens in a game, just move Clemens to left field. I don't think he is that superior to Keaschall at second. I think with work and sufficient reps, Keaschall can be at least adequate at second base. I'm not sure the Twins feel that way though.
  16. A lot to chew on here. Is Lee really 6'2" and 215 lbs? I saw him pretty up close and he looks more like 6 even and 200. Considerably shorter than Kreidler and about the same frame as Wagaman, who is also taller. Second, players work with trainers who know a lot about athlete's bodies and how to prepare them for their season. If Lee wants to be quicker and faster, I am sure his trainer had a plan for that. One factor in last year's disappointment for Lee was the early back injury that seemed to make him less athletic all year. If he's truly over it, that one factor might make him quicker and faster this year. I've never heard Lee's arm described as anything above average and what I've seen of him, he's compensated by having a quick transfer and release. I'd say it is adequate, but we won't hear the rah-rahs for his throws as were accorded Correa. The -1 runs saved must have come from stats only after Correa was traded. His numbers at Savant and Fangraphs look worse.
  17. Are we sold that Culpepper will be a better SS than Lee? Yes, he is the faster runner, but hands and accuracy enter in as well. Gleeman and the Geek seem to think it is an open question as to whether he better suited at third or second than shortstop and they have access to the Twins' brain trust and have been at spring training this year. If Culpepper isn't a shortstop, there still isn't anyone to push Lee off the position. The report on Lee yesterday said that his defense was pretty close to average at shortstop (I believe it was from the time Correa was traded) and average is acceptable if he's a plus hitter. Also, it would explain the playing of Keaschall in left field if Culpepper is viewed as a possible second baseman.
  18. No question that some defensive improvement is needed. The sprint speed last year was recorded in the bottom quartile, not a good place for a shortstop. A half-step or foot per second faster could put him a lot closer to average. The offensive performance is also a necessity. If he hits like a utility infielder, he is destined to be a utility infielder.
  19. Winning is better than losing. Nice for Culpepper to have a lovely parting gift of a GWRBI.
  20. No one has posted on this thread for a few days and I'm going to bump it up. There are many interesting position battles going on and TBH I don't like the way most of them are going. James Outman and Alan Roden have been strong thus far this spring. The out-of-options Outman may have pushed himself onto the roster and he's not really a good fit unless Buxton needs more time off than he had last year. Roden has had his second consecutive good spring and on its merits, he should have a position, but as basically a LH hitting corner guy, he's behind both Larnach and Wallner and also would squeeze Austin Martin out of playing time. Since he has an option, it would seem the Twins would likely send him to St. Paul over losing Outman to a DFA. Coming off a good last third of the '25 season, Martin has shown he has tools lacking in most of the team--speed, contact plus he improved dramatically in the field last year. I think he should get a chance to play every day and keeping either Roden or Outman severly limits that chance. The utility infield cluster has played out about as expected. Orlando Arcia is a minor league signing almost certainly with an opt-out. He's played multiple positions and has hit acceptably mostly against minor league pitching. Kreidler has plus skills as a defender and can play outfield, but hasn't shown much (in games at least) to convince anyone that he can hit major league pitching. Gray looks like a superior hitter, but hasn't played much shortstop. It would appear that Arcia has the inside track for coming north with the major league team and he has been dreadful since midseason of his All-Star year. Kody Clemens has hit well enough to probably have his spot written in ink on the Opening Day roster, while Eric Wagaman has been more of a utility guy, playing both third base and corner outfield, which could squeeze Austin Martin even further if he makes the club. Ryan Jeffers and Victor Caratini are locks to be the catchers, if healthy. Neither has looked that great, but they are veterans with guaranteed spots, "working on things" could be more than an excuse. Alex Jackson hit a homer early, but hasn't hit at all since. It's disappointing because I thought he might hit enough to force a tough decision on keeping him and he's out of options and he has a good defensive skill set. If he starts swinging better, he still could force the Twins to consider carrying three catchers. On the pitching side, Justin Topa appears to have pitched himself to the outside looking in. The Twins would hate to eat a major league contract, but it isn't like he's being paid big dollars. As has been covered elsewhere, there are four lefties with a strong case to make the club in the bullpen. Rogers and Banda have major league contracts, so I would expect they are safe. Chafin has a long history of being a pretty good middle inning and lefty specialist. That leaves Funderburk (maddingly) as the odd man out unless the Twins want to carry four left handed relievers. I saw Orze pitch twice, once on TV and once live. He looked outstanding once and walked the bases loaded before and during a thunderstorm, but escaped with no runs. He's probably one of the RH relievers. Sands has looked okay this spring and given his competition for a spot, he likely can get a six-month lease on a condo. The other bullpen spots are not so certain. As mentioned, Topa might be out or at least he has to pitch himself in. DFA pickup Zak Kent hasn't been able to establish himself in the majors, but he looks like he has a good arm and he's under 30 with an option. On another thread, I said I thought one RH bullpen spot would be between Liam Hendriks and Dan Altavilla. Hendriks has had major health issues in the past three years, but in this decade was an All-Star closer. Altavilla has had plenty of injuries as well, but he is throwing mid-to-upper 90s and was successful in about half a season for the bad White Sox last year. The Twins most likely can't send Hendriks to the minors due to his vet status, while Altavila is short of six years of service and could be assigned to St. Paul unless he put an opt-out in his minor league contract. Matt Bowman is both an "old friend" and someone who has been in the majors most of the last two years. His stuff is middling, but he might be able to provide adequate middle inning relief. Non-roster guy Julian Merryweather turned heads with his stuff early, but went down with an injury. He likely gets sent to St. Paul, but I would bet imaginary money that he'll spend considerable time on the Twins' roster this summer. Now on to the rotation. Top starters Joe Ryan and Bailey Ober would seem to each be at least a week behind, both have made only one Grapefruit League appearance. Taj Bradley and Simeon Woods Richardson look like heavy favorites to start in the rotation, although both have put up a poor start followed by a good one. Zebby Matthew and Mitch Abel would be looking for the last spot. Abel has been lights out, including facing major league starters, Zebby got knocked around his last start, but continues to show quality pitches that should qualify for consistent success. Drumroll please. Predictions for the Opening Day roster (no further injuries). Pitchers--Ryan Ober, Bradley, Abel, Woods Richardson, Matthew (bullpen for now), Orze, Sands, Hendriks, Rogers, Banda, Funderburk, Chafin. Catchers--Jeffers, Caratini. Infield--Bell, Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Arcia, Wagaman, Clemens, Outfielders--Wallner, Larnach, Buxton, Outman. Not much that I like for the bench or platoon spots. Matthews sticks as the sixth starting option but in the BP for now and provides innings for short starts from Ober and Ryan. Initally. IL for Festa and Adams. What I'd like to see: Pitchers--Ryan, Ober, Abel, Woods Richardson, Bradley. Bullpen--Funderburk, Rogers, Chafin, Banda, Matthews, Orze, Sands, Altavilla. Catchers--Jeffers, Caratini, Jackson Infielders--Bell (DH), Clemens, Kreidler (ugh), , Keaschall, Lee, Lewis, Outfield--Roden, Martin, Buxton, Wallner. Rationale: Larnach and Wallner along with Bell is at least one too many slow primarily left handed hitters. Larnach has less upside and makes more than Wallner, so he should be the one to go. Keep Jackson if he can hit at all. Neither Jeffers or Caratini has every caught 100 games in a season and it is likely that there will be catcher injuries. The talent in the upper minors is almost non-existent. Eventually Keaschall might transition to another position and maybe it is first base. I'd give him a healthy season before I gave up on him at second, especially since his speed should translate to decent range. I would hope Clemens isn't a full platoon at first, Caratini could carry much of the load. I'd like to see both Martin and Roden get a real opportunity to see if they can be everyday players, or in Roden's case a strong-side platoon. Kreidler makes my team because he is supposedly well above average defensively, including in the outfield and he has to be better than what he put up with the Tigers. Try Zebby and maybe later Festa in late innings with a more limited assortment and max effort. I think Hendriks is done. Great story, but his comeback with the Twins is just a postscript. I am certain there will be a great amount of bullpen shuffle and I hope some live arms emerge. Unless there are real breakthroughs from a bunch of players, this team isn't going to contend. Time to separate the wheat from the chaff.
  21. I think Altavilla has the best, most recent, resume of the non-roster invitees. His baseball savant page is a bit of a mixed bag, but overall it's pretty good. I think one spot is going to a non-roster right hander and it probably comes down to Hendriks vs. Altavilla. Unless he had it written into his minor league contract, Altavilla shouldn't be able to opt out if he actually was sent to St. Paul, but because of his veteran status, Hendriks could. Altavilla has zero closing experience at age 33, so there's that.
  22. Here's my list of ex-Twins in the WBC (may have missed some): Puerto Rico--José De León, Willi Castro, Eddie Rosario, Jorge López, Jovani Morán, Christian Vázquez. Canada--Jordan Balazovic, Edouard Julien. Columbia--Gio Urshela, Donovan Solano, Jhon Romero .USA--Griffin Jax. Mexico--Daniel Duarte. Great Britain--Vance Worley. Austrailia--Aaron Whitefield. Venezuela--Luis Arráez, Dominican Republic--Carlos Santana. Israel--Harrison Bader, Matt Bowman. Nicaragua--Erasmo Ramirez. In addition, there is a "Designated Pitcher Pool", apparently pitchers to be added if the team advances. Included in pitching pools are José Berríos (Puerto Rico), Liam Hendriks and Lewis Thorpe (Austrailia) and Jharel Cotton (Great Britain) along with current Twin Joe Ryan. Dan Altavilla (Italy) is currently in camp with the Twins, as are former Twins Bowman, Urshela, Hendriks Buxton didn't play tonight, but remains on the Team USA roster. Taj Bradley was selected by Team Mexico, but opted out. Pablo López was chosen for Team Venezuela, but was replaced due to injury. Ex-Twins on coaching staffs: Justin Morneau (Canada), Johan Santana (Venezuela), Jason Marquis (Israel) and Jacque Jones (Nicaragua). If anyone has any additions or corrections, please reply and note the change.
  23. It's now 8-0 in the sixth. Better to lose in pool play, but that run differential!!! Edit: Gunnar goes deep on Altavilla. 8-1 after 6.
  24. 1) There is development runway for Rodriguez and Gonzalez. If they aren't slated to play at least three-quarters of the time for the Twins, they can benefit from extra time in the minors. 2) I don't think there's room for this club to carry Wallner and Larnach unless Bell is the regular first baseman. 3) The pitchers sent down have a lot of work to do before they pitch on the Target Field mound. 4) Mendez seems a long way from the majors and an even longer way from being a first baseman. 5) Larnach is an average major league bat with little defensive value or upside. Wallner has elite tools (power and throwing arm), but he has to improve from the three two outcomes player he was last year. I'd bet on Wallner to be better this year and beyond.
  25. Interesting defensive positions--in the regular season would Clemens and Wagaman be switched? Lee has exclusively played short this spring AFAIK, but can Gray handle shortstop? I believe the consensus is that Kreidler is the Twins' best defensive SS, so he is getting reps at different positions and finally Martin is getting another start in center field. Is he truly an option there?
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