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Everything posted by stringer bell
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Article: Surprises Mark Twins Opening Day Roster
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Does the brain trust like Vargas that much? Keeping Park at AAA makes sense if the team thinks he'll be replaced by Vargas as soon as he's healthy. On DanSan, my thought is perhaps they think he'll relocate the magic beans from 2014 and again become a dynamic offensive player. The tools are still intriguing. Like most posters here I'm not happy with the 25-man roster. I certainly expect a lot of change in the coming months.- 388 replies
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I don't care about BA, but I'd sure like to see Dozier's OBP stay at last year's level or maybe go a little higher. This spring, he's seemed to concentrate on base stealing and I wouldn't be surprised to see him have a career high there. As far as homers, I'm going to go with 30, a big number but still 12 less than last year (42 homers for a middle infielder is insane!) and I, too, would expect a few more doubles with fewer balls going over the fence.
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Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Hughes got knocked around facing mostly major leaguers after a three-hour bus ride. It may be a blip on the radar or it may signal he just doesn't have it after his surgery. As far as Berrios goes, even if he's sent to Rochester, he'll get his chance again in Minnesota, probably long before the All-Star game. Park/Vargas? IMHO, neither is proven, but Vargas is younger and a switch hitter and he's on the 40-man. I don't think the Twins want to give him away (or whoever would have to leave the 40-man) so that they can add Park. Santana? The Twins thought they had caught lightning in a bottle when he came up in 2014, but he hasn't flashed much of that since. The biggest problem is that he's not a good defender anywhere. I wouldn't be surprised if the Twins kept him this spring, but I wouldn't be surprised if he was DFAed early in the season, if not by the final roster cuts.- 85 replies
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- brian dozier
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Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Here are some roster realities. Haley is a Rule V, so he would have to be offered back to his original club if he's not on the 25-man roster. Santana, Adrianza, Grossman are all out of options. Vargas has another option remaining, as does Murphy. Park, Vogelsong, Schuck, Stubbs, Breslow (today) and Gimenez aren't on the 40-man roster and would have to be added in order to go north with the club. The 40-man is currently full, but Trevor May is a certainty to go on the 60-day DL and open a spot. The only veteran that I know of with an opt-out is Breslow, which is supposed to be resolved today (most likely added to the 40-man, with May on the 60-day DL).- 85 replies
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- brian dozier
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Article: Twins Roster Projection 2017: Version 3.0
stringer bell replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I'm guessing that Gimenez does win the backup catcher position. I like to see righty/lefty balance so adding Breslow makes some sense and perhaps Meijia getting the nod over Berrios, with JO getting the call whenever somebody scuffles or is injured. Santana, Park or maybe Adrianza have a shot for the last position player on the team. I also think one of Haley or Vogelsong will make the club as a long man with the other guy out of the organization.- 85 replies
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- brian dozier
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Article: Cool Heat: Shaggy Is A Closer In Waiting
stringer bell replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Pressly also has the stuff to be a closer. I'd like to see him get a chance, although as I remember it, he wasn't great in close and late situations last year (of course they didn't have that many). The BP could be all right, if everybody lives up to expectations. -
Goodrum is an interesting guy. He's always seemed to be more of an athlete with plenty of tools, who hasn't produced as much or developed as much as one might expect. He has been playing multiple positions for a while now and if he can handle the glove part, he's got speed and power (especially for an infielder) so that maybe he could get a look at the big stage. I presume he'll go to Rochester or get there sometime this year.
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- zack granite
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Slegers is a personal favorite of mine. I met his mother at the Macy's Thanksgiving Day parade and got a Mom's report about his progress at that point. She also mentioned Minnesota roots--his grandparents lived in Minnesota and his mom was raised in the state. Good luck to him at Rochester. If he has a good year, it wouldn't surprise me to see him get a chance with the Twins.
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Article: Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)
stringer bell replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Comments about those that didn't make it: Mussina-He'll probably go the "Blyleven route" and eventually get in the Hall. Qualified? IDK, he bet the Twins all the time. His numbers are very good. I think he's more qualified than some who have made it, but I can't say he absolutely belongs. Guerrero-Not a huge fan. As noted above there are several people in Vlad's range who haven't been treated kindly, but as close as he was this year, he is a shoo-in. I confess I probably saw the "old Vlad" and mostly remember an aging DH more than seeing Guerrero in his prime. Hoffman-I guess he'll get in next year, as well. He pretty quietly put up great numbers as a closer. I'm wondering what standard for relief pitchers there is as far as magic numbers (like 3000 hits and 500 homers for hitters).- 114 replies
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- barry bonds
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Article: Running Down The Hall (Of Fame Ballot)
stringer bell replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
I agree on the three selections. I think all three deserved admission and it took longer than it should have for both Raines and Bagwell. Yes, there are plenty of jerks that get to vote on Hall induction, but there were enough that made the right choices. Clemens and Bonds have sullied their records. They certainly performed at HOF level. I shed no tears that they were not included.- 114 replies
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Leidner is probably a less-gifted Tim Tebow and Tebow got meaningful snaps almost entirely because of his physical gifts. Some NFL suspects have become solid pros, but developing accuracy this late in the game is a real long shot for Leidner.
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Leidner has not been good, but part of the problem is the talent around him. Receivers that can't get open and drop too many balls when they do combined with an O-line that is much better run blocking than pass protecting contribute to the problem.
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Doesn't it really depend on the metric? I know other have cited stats that say Dozier's range is poor. While I don't consider him a gold-glover, I see him as average or at least in the middle range. As for Polanco, I don't think any one factor of his defense at short is excellent, but on the other hand I don't see any factors that are irredeemably bad.
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- jorge polanco
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I think Escobar has had an off-year defensively at shortstop, compared to previous seasons. He has bobbled or kicked more balls this year than in the previous two IMHO, some resulting in errors, some called hits and some ruling out double plays. My eye test of Polanco (limited reps) is that overall he probably fails in the "adequate" category. The arm is sufficient, but I"ve seen enough misplays to consider him in the bottom half of the shortstop pool. While SS may not be his eventual position, I have no problem with sending him out there to start the season in 2017. Perhaps, with many reps, he'll improve. Maybe someone will trade for him as a shortstop,
- 60 replies
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- jorge polanco
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I don't have any stats to back it u, but i have seen some incremental change in Rosario's selectivity. He has gotten ahead more and thus gotten better pitches to hit. I doubt Rosario will ever walk much, but if he forces the pitcher to throw strikes, he will improve. As far as the ill-advised throw, Eddie has done that several times. At what point is it too many poor decisions? Perhaps Rosario crossed that threshold last night.
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- eddie rosario
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Twins Almanac: Dozier Edition
stringer bell commented on Matt Johnson's blog entry in The Twins Almanac
I though Soriano hit 42 that year. Well, maybe a few were as a PH, DH or outfielder. Two of Dozier's 39 came in one of the two or three games where he DHed, so his total as a 2B is 37. I'd love to see him set that record.- 2 comments
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Article: Thoughts On Brian Dozier
stringer bell replied to stringer bell's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
As I said earlier, take a look at Robbie Cano from mid 2014 until July 1st 2015. I can't be sure on the exact interval, but he was lousy for most of a year (doing this from memory). Bad slumps happen to good players. For a long time, the longest position player hitless streak by a Twin belonged to a pretty good hitter-Butch Wynegar. I think minor injuries figure into diminished performance, as well. I don't believe Dozier was completely healthy at the conclusion of last year. -
Let me preface what will undoubtedly be a long entry by saying I am a Dozier fan. I have spoken to him at spring training a couple of times and like the young man. I believe he has been the Twins MVP for each of the last four seasons, including this one, and I have no doubt that he is the team's best player at this point. Certainly he isn't flawless, but the Twins need more players like Brian Dozier, not fewer.Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, he knows who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation. Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion of the topic: First of all, when the season started, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season were the questions of whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, would he be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not lazy popups or routine fly balls. Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year. As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the calls to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000. He slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline. Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic. Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and an MLB-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans who remained. The question that stems from his performance in both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. These seem to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. This makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although his work from mid-2015 through May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time. In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball onto the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for a guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBIs or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June have been off the charts. Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showed good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier. Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media. I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, even if he is traded, but hopefully he continues as a Minnesota Twin. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better. Click here to view the article
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Over the course of this long, horrible season, Brian Dozier has often been a hot topic of conversation in Twins Territory. He isn't shy about stepping up to a microphone, my wife and daughters think he's good-looking and he's been a regular with the club as their second baseman for four years. If someone casually follows the Twins, he knows who Dozier is, so it figures that he would be a topic of conversation. Let's see why Dozier has been discussed so much and what I think should be the conclusion of the topic: First of all, when the season started, Dozier couldn't get it going. After a bad second half in 2015, Dozier came out of the gate slow in 2016. Through all of April and May, Dozier barely reached .200 and the signature power was lacking. Had the league figured him out? Was the 28 year old (turned 29 in mid-May) regressing already? Should he be benched or put at the bottom of the order? My thought, then and now, was that it is a long season. If a guy is a good player, he'll come out of a funk. Robbie Cano had a similar stretch at the end of 2014 and beginning of 2015 and Cano might be a Hall-of-Famer. Along for the ride early in the season were the questions of whether BD was too pull-happy and if he used the whole field, would he be a more consistent and productive hitter. My thought was that Dozier needed to be able to hit the ball with authority when he was pitched away and as the season has progressed, he has accumulated some oppo hits and several to the middle of the field, the key being that he hit the ball hard, not lazy popups or routine fly balls. Moving on, Dozier has spent most of the season hitting #1 or #2. Many have thought it wasn't ideal for a guy whose calling card is big power to hit first or second. My thought then was that the Twins simply didn't have a better option. Dozier takes some of the longest at-bats on the team, he's walked a fair amount since arriving in the majors and he's a good base runner who doesn't clog the bases for those behind him. Ideally, he should have hit lower in the order to make a few more of his homers multi-run shots and I think that where Dozier hits in the lineup in 2017 will be a hot controversial topic if he is in a Twins' uniform next year. As the season rolled toward the All-Star break, the calls to sell and rebuild the Twins included Dozier's name prominently. He had some value and the club is/was going nowhere in '16, so cashier him for a prospect or two and let Jorge Polanco handle second base. In June and July, Dozier recovered from his slow start. He put up a great line in June, posting an OPS for the month in excess of 1.000. He slowed in July, hitting only .240 but still putting up an OPS of .824. Trade Dozier at the deadline? Didn't happen and IMHO shouldn't have happened. He hasn't slowed down much since his monster June and with a team-friendly contract and relative youth, his value should only be higher in the off-season or at next year's trade deadline. Another topic that has emerged is defense. After a truly stout year in 2013, Dozier's defense has been categorized as below average by most metrics. While I don't believe Dozier is elite defensively, my eyes tell me he is in the average range. He makes a few outstanding plays (probably more than any other Twins player) and doesn't get to some balls he should, perhaps because of shifting, maybe because the position of shortstop has been in flux since he became a second baseman, maybe because in three of the last four years, the team never had a shot at contention. I don't know. In checking BB Ref, Dozier lags in zone rating but is above average in runs saved. I see it as a wash, making Dozier average in the field. I'm waiting for someone to refute this, but in the final analysis, defense probably is an "eyes of the beholder" topic. Since the All-Star break, Brian Dozier has been en fuego. He's hitting .320, with an OPS of 1.091 and an MLB-leading 21 homers. I guess that puts to rest the "first half player" meme that was circulating among the diehard fans who remained. The question that stems from his performance in both the cold April and May and his elite performance since is what to expect going forward. I have turned over in my mind what the most likely trajectory of Dozier's career figures to be. One extreme is Dan Uggla, who like Dozier wasn't highly regarded, got a chance in his mid-twenties and became a star in large part because of his power numbers. Uggla fell off a cliff in his early thirties. An opposing example is Jeff Kent. Kent was an okay player, but not even a full-time regular until he was 29. Starting from age 30, Kent won an MVP, was an All-Star five times with three different teams and posted OPS+ numbers over 119 every year until he was 39. These seem to be the extremes for power-hitting second basemen. Is Dozier going to be productive for most of another decade or is regression going to meet him around his 30th birthday? My answer is that no one knows for sure. It appears to me that Dozier has made adjustments to become a more complete hitter without diminishing his best asset--home run power. This makes him a candidate to sustain high-end performance, although his work from mid-2015 through May of this year give a good argument that he could turn into a pumpkin at any time. In the last few weeks as the tumult in my life has moved Twins baseball onto the back burner, I've managed to check the box scores, cluck over the disastrous pitching and watch highlights of games. Dozier has been front and center continuing his power surge. He now projects to exceed 40 homers and if he hits just one more long ball, he will have hit more in a single season than any Twin since Harmon in 1970. 40 homers would be a Top Ten season in franchise history dating back to the Senators who started playing at the turn of the 20th century. Only Harmon and Roy Sievers (once) have ever hit 40 homers in a single season in franchise history. Dozier is projected to score and drive in over 100 runs, also a rare feat, especially for a guy who has hit first or second most of the season. He may or may not make 40 homers, 100 RBIs or 100 runs, but on such a bad team those numbers stand out big and bold. Although I'm not a big fan of WAR, it does represent a quick and dirty assessment of value and Dozier's 5.6 WAR for this season is in the Top Ten in the league. Because the season has been so bad, I don't think Dozier has gotten the attention he deserves for his huge season. He won't win a Silver Slugger or MVP, he won't win the HR championship or set any other records, so there hasn't been any national coverage, but his overall season and particularly his production since June have been off the charts. Now in the season's final month, most Twins fans are thinking about the future (with good reason). Augmenting a terrible rotation is Priority One and trading Brian Dozier to get pitching help makes sense, since his value should be at an all-time high. This argument is buttressed by the play of Polanco, who has hit over .300, showed good on-base skills, but a questionable glove at short or third. I believe Jorge Polanco is best suited to second base and I believe adding him for Dozier wouldn't be all bad since Polanco is a switch hitter and wouldn't be prone to long slumps with his swing and approach. However, unless the payoff is monumental, Brian Dozier should be the Twins second baseman next year. He has had a season for the ages despite the wreckage around him, he's only 29 and if the last 100 days are an indication, he might get even better. Finally, he's been a solid citizen off the field. If the club wants somebody as the face of the franchise, they could do worse than Mr. Dozier. Just a couple more thoughts before I summarize--Dozier has been durable. Since becoming the team's second baseman, he hasn't been disabled and has missed only a handful of games with injuries. Secondly, my observation is that he is a good teammate. He doesn't sulk, cheers for his mates, appears to like their company off the field (loved the State Fair video) and despite having strong religious views, doesn't put that in the face of his teammates or the media. I have mentioned many of these thoughts in previous threads on the forums of Twins Daily. I find this player to be fascinating, especially in light of his minor league career and low status when drafted. I think Brian Dozier is a fine player who hasn't gotten the appreciation he deserves for this, his best season. I will continue to be a Dozier fan, even if he is traded, but hopefully he continues as a Minnesota Twin. In the event that he is traded, I will be pulling for the players acquired in return and hope they make the Twins better.
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