It's a useful way to start thinking about it. But since the games are not coin flips, and indeed do not have an independent or uniform distribution of expected outcomes, even if the players were robots which they are not, you'd need higher powered statistical methods than I could muster to say whether 100-to-1 odds are too high or too low to offer for the proposition bet. Where humans are involved, across just four days, I think I want a little more than the coin-flip analysis to call it foregone. And I wrote the, ahem, foregoing before checking the ALE standings this morning. Put it this way: a mere day later, the likelihood is now down around 97%, probably (a 1-in-32 shot). Is that number still foregone? Darned likely, of course. But if foregone is too strong a word now, maybe it wasn't quite foregone yesterday either. A single day shouldn't matter that much. For me, foregone is more like the Astros' and Dodgers' chances heading into late August. The Dodgers withstood a horrendous stretch and still made it in a breeze. Time-remaining is the big differentiator.