ericchri

It's basically a tossup. If they trade Willingham for prospects, they're admitting that they're not trying next year and the ticket sales plummet. If they trade him for ML-ready SP, it's probably not as good as we need it to be, and when the team doesn't improve fans revolt. If they keep him, they risk regression or injury, and little return on a perceived asset. This is why being an armchair GM is so much fun. Personally I'm betting on the Twins not bailing on next season until after the season has started, which means they don't deal Willingham til the deadline. I think I'd prefer trading Willingham for a high upside prospect if possible, but I'm not going to be surprised or upset when it doesn't happen.

I originally thought I wouldn't want Grienke, as outside of one great season he's mostly been an above-average pitcher, not a star (nevertheless Cy Young quality compared to anything the Twins have). But he's young enough that he could stick around through the transition from our current veterans to all the young pups who'll be coming up in the near future. And I think it would be nice to have a little stability in the rotation when that is happening. That being said, I find it hard to believe anyone is outbidding the Dodgers for Grienke. I kind of feel the same about Anibal Sanchez, he's young enough that 5-6 years of him wouldn't be the worst contract ever if he doesn't tank. Both of those guys are going to get contracts much bigger than I think they should, but I don't get to set the market, and I think I'd like to see one (both ) with the Twins somehow. Not holding my breath, though. The Jackson/Marcum types seem much more likely for the Twins to actually pursue, and who knows what they'll eventually end up with.

I'm torn. Span was my favorite Twin, and I hoped we could do a little better in trade, but they got the kind of thing back I was hoping for. A starting pitcher prospect with a high upside. We desperately needed some of those in the system. BJ Hermsen may be a contributor to the team some day but he can't be one of your top prospects at the position, he just doesn't appear to have much upside. The Twins are unlikely to ever "buy" a top-tier starter from FA, so if they're ever going to have some it's going to be by developing them from prospects.

I never understood why the Twins switched back to Nishi at short when he came back from breaking his leg. Not saying Casilla was amazing, but after spending all of Spring Training building to that, why after coming back from a 6-week absence is the guy with the weaker arm now playing short instead of 2B? I love that Baseball America article linked, as the projected 2016 lineup as part of the page is fun to think about. But it has Denard Span in LF for the Twins in 2016? Not seeing that, I'd assume someone else (Kepler?) would be the more likely candidate with the assumption Arcia was the DH as predicted there. Reports had Arcia being a decent fielder, is that not actually the case? Levi Michael is the best defensive infielder in the Twins system? I've not heard that before. That makes him a much more intriguing prospect than he's seemed up until now. Not that it makes him a top prospect just because of that, but if he's even a decent hitter he suddenly becomes very useful, even if it's just as a utility guy. This year we hopefully have guys moving up levels such that we have a better idea what we have in our middle infielders. A+ ball seems to be really hard to judge hitters on, so if we get Santana and Michael to AA at some point in 2013, maybe we find out whether there's actual big-league talent there.

Guessing contracts is not really my thing, but if he were a FA I wouldn't expect Morneau to get much more than a 1-year deal for around 8 million this offseason, maybe with an option for a second year. He still has to prove he's healthy, even though he looks awful good compared to most of the FA 1B options. As for Gibson, any reason to not just use him as the #5 starter? Every time an off-day in the schedule comes around, he gets skipped to keep everyone else on normal rest schedule. Assuming good health he'd get around 25ish starts on the year, presumably. At 5-6 innings a start he'd end up in the 125-150 innings range for the year, depending on how well he pitched and how many starts he actually got.

The Twins signed Boleska right after the season. He was the closer of the FM Redhawks this past year where he put up some crazy numbers. And he's Canadian. Agh, one of my hometown players got signed by the Twins? I need to read the paper more, apparently. It's funny, I only went to one Redhawks game this year and I recall the relief pitching being awful. Don't have any idea if Boleska was actually one of the pitchers or not, though. I rarely pay serious attention, as I don't typically expect any of them to move beyond semi-pro. We did have a former catcher (Chris Coste) win a WS ring with the Phillies a few years ago, though, so I should know better.

Apologies in advance for excessive Vikings talk... I'd hardly call what Rick Spielman did completely rebuilding the Vikings. Honestly, I think the Vikings of a year ago look an awful lot like what the Twins look like right now. Huge gaps in the roster with a few good veteran players and lots of underperforming youngsters. The Vikings got better by solidifying a glaring weakness (offensive line) by adding one standout, which pushed an iffy player (Charlie Johnson) to a role he was better suited to, and having a young guy take a big step forward to becoming a standout (John Sullivan). The secondary also improved due to the addition of a 1st round pick in Harrison. But I can't honestly say I saw the Vikings dumping anybody they could for draft picks or young players this past offseason. They just rode it out with what they had and a couple rookies performing well makes everything else look better. Throw on two of the best players in the game in Peterson and Harvin performing at All-Pro level, and you've got a team. If the Twins do what the VIkings have done this year, they'd essentially probably move Willingham to full-time DH and put Arcia or Hicks into the everyday lineup in hopes he rakes at the majors as well (similar to Harrison). Then you'd get Gibson up to be a quality starter (Kalil) and probably have Hendricks take that giant step forward (Sullivan). And Mauer (Harvin) and Morneau (Peterson) play at an All-Pro level, suddenly the team doesn't look pathetic. It's all wishful thinking, though. Nobody thought the VIkings were going to be good this year, because all they added were a couple rookies and took a flyer on a receiver without much history who was also going to miss 20% of the season due to suspension. The rookies have been as good as (probably better) than expected, and that along with standout performances by the two stars makes the season look good so far, discounting the absolutely brutal schedule they have to finish the season in which it wouldn't be shocking to see them go 1-5 to finish up at 7-9 on the year. And a 7-9 football record translates roughly to a 71-91 record in baseball. For the record I'm betting on a 3-3 finish, but I won't be shocked at anything except for winning all 6. I'm onboard with spending serious money to improve the roster, or I'm onboard with moving veterans for youngsters with 2014 or 2015 in mind. I don't think I'm onboard with spending minimally to just sort of barely plug holes only to have to do it again every year perpetually.

This sounds like the kind of thing the Twins would do in the mid-to-late 90's. Sign a washed-up veteran in hopes he reclaims some of his past glory to pretend you're trying to compete when you're really not. I actually kinda wanted the Twins to sign him when he was a FA, I thought he'd look great at the top of our lineup with Span (two guys at the time sporting near .400 OBP), but his performance in Seattle has erased that feeling. Pass on Figgins, please.

This sounds fairly similar to something I was thinking in the Money Matters thread. I wasn't originally much of a fan of signing FA pitchers to long-term deals, but in the last few days I started thinking about fixes that weren't just stopgaps but actually were part of the long-term answer, and I pretty much agree with this sentiment. I worry that signing a couple expensive FA pitchers to long-term deals, combined with Mauer's contract, we'd be hamstrung financially. But then I started thinking about the core of hitters we have coming up potentially taking a lot of the expense out of the hitting lineup so that maybe we aren't as hamstrung as you first might think. If we sign FA starters, I'd prefer it to be guys young enough and good enough to contribute for 5-6 years to bridge over from the current veterans to all the young guys that will coming up in the somewhat-near future. I don't want to have to rebuild the pitching staff at the same time as the young hitters are cutting their teeth in the majors.

Have the Twins ever "blown up" the team completely? In other words trading away many of their best players simultaneously and not backfilling with mediocre veterans to pretend they're still trying? I can't help wondering how that would be received by the fandom. The proximity to Target Field opening would certainly be a hindrance to that, but it would be refreshing to see them taking a clear path towards a specific goal of future contention as opposed to just sticking their fingers in the holes and hoping the leaks don't grow. I can't honestly see it happening, but I'd rather watch a bunch of rookies lose 100 games than a bunch of veterans lose 85-90. For me to be fairly confident the team was going to be a legitimately competitive team next season, I think they need 3 starting pitchers, one bullpen arm, and a middle infielder that isn't a well-below-average hitter. And that doesn't guarantee anything, cause then you're banking on health and continued above average production from a lot of people it wouldn't be shocking to see not produce like they did this year (Willingham, Plouffe, Burton, Burnett, Diamond). A part of me thinks my offseason plan might be to go ahead and give Grienke and Anibal Sanchez what they want and call it good. I honestly don't care much for most of the other FA pitchers as any kind of solution that helps us long-term. If you can get the Pohlads to let you spend $110 million next year, you might actually have a team that can compete in the AL Central if everything breaks right (yes, that means everything, which isn't likely, but who knows), and if not, sell off assets (Willingham, Morneau, Span/Revere, Burton, etc...) at the deadline or next offseason. At that point we should have more players looking major league ready (Arcia, Hicks, Parmelee who probably is right now, Gibson, a whole bunch of minor league relievers to choose from). And we might have as many as four theoretically legit starters (Grienke, Sanchez, Gibson, Diamond) to anchor the rotation for many years. With the rotation and Mauer eating up most of the money we have to go young everywhere else, but that's where our minor leagues look decent anyway.

First off, Hicks hasn't even reached AAA. Revere's proven he can hit big-league pitching. Revere's D is the best--far better than Span's. Also, on the basepaths, he forces pitchers to pay attention to him and makes Mauer better. Mauer was a .270 hitter with a propensity for double plays prior to Revere. When pitchers had to respect Revere and toss more fastballs to Joe, the DPs went WAY down and the average increased. (Mind you, I'm not attributing ALL of Mauer's success to Revere, but the speed does fit well into the lineup...) I don't necessarily disagree with anything you're saying about Revere (though I think you're a bit off about Mauer). Mostly I just feel like we've seen about the best of Ben Revere we're going to see. He doesn't have enough pop in his bat and he doesn't walk, meaning his OBP and OPS are never going to be anything special, even with his fairly high BA. That doesn't mean I think Revere is no good, but I think Hicks profiles to be a better overall player. The way I understand it he's just as fast, more patient at the plate, has more power potential, and though I'm not hugely concerned with it he has a much stronger arm. Yes, Hicks could flame out, but somebody from our glut of outfielders has to go, and I'd rather keep the one with the highest upside, even if there's still some chance at him washing out. Just a personal preference. We'd be replacing Revere's bat with Parmelee's at that point, and while obviously a different player, he might add another power hitter to the lineup which has potential to score a lot of runs, just in a different way than Revere's presence does. With the assumption we'd keep Span if we traded Revere, we've still got time to let Hicks develop. Long-term Buxton "theoretically" has the highest upside of all of the numerous CF guys in our system, so if we trade Hicks, that's fine too. I'll be a little disappointed, but I'll just be happy to see them cleaning a CF out of our roster for something of value. I wouldn't be surprised if Seattle was more interested in Hicks than Revere (the implication is there based on him being named first), but I'm just some schmoe on a message board, not a GM.

Just for fun, read the comments to this thread from the Braves fan perspective. If Twins fans and Braves fans were allowed to make trades for the teams... http://blogs.ajc.com/atlanta-braves-blog/2012/11/07/braves-might-trade-pitching-for-lineup-needs/

I'd rather let them have Revere than Hicks, his upside is a lot higher than Revere's. But we have plenty of options to get through the next few years waiting for Buxton if it takes Hicks to get good pitching. Anyone offering pitching for any of our outfielders should get serious consideration.

I think that tweet only suggested the Twins would be worried about replacing the RH bat if they made that move, not that it had to be part of the deal. Seems doubtful they'd get ML ready starting pitching and a ML ready hitter back in return for just him. Willingham seems more likely to be a deadline trade if Plouffe is hitting well and the Twins are out of it, for that reason, due to the uncertainty of having any legit RH in the lineup.

1. Rod Carew 2. Harmon Killebrew 3. Joe Mauer 4. Tony Oliva 5. Kirby Puckett 6. Bob Allison 7. Kent Hrbek 8. Chuck Knoblauch 9. Justin Morneau 10. Paul Molitor

You trade Span for Shields because it is a net increase in payroll of only ~$5 million per year, not 10-12, with the presumed effect of not decreasing your lineup too badly in the process (defense might be a different issue, however, if Parmelee then takes over RF). If you want to add 3 decent SP this offseason, it's going to take something like that, as opposed to only buying FA starters. I think the real question is what it takes to get Shields. As long as we're not throwing in one of our top 6-8 prospects in addition to Span, I could probably live with it.

I think it probably bleeds over from basketball especially (being a winter sport). And some people don't take the time to consider differences in sports, once they hear "Nobody wants to go to Minnesota" in regards to one sport, they just assume it applies to other sports. I also think Minnesota's reputation for not spending that last little bit to make the play for a championship, while not completely accurate, is out there. Meaning if your choices are Minnesota and Detroit, where most other factors are going to be similar (market size, climate), you're going to think that Detroit is the team more likely to make the move at the deadline to put the team over the top. There's also no getting around the fact that the Twins have been putrid two years in a row. Even if you don't subscribe to any other factors, most people facing equal opportunities in all factors except "chance to win" are going to rank Minnesota low on that factor right now. Also, what are state income taxes considered to be for Minnesota? I should know, but I have nothing more than a gut feeling that for some reason tells me they're a little on the high side. Without being able to listen to the thoughts of every free agent on the market, you're never going to definitively answer that question, but it's not too far-fetched to believe some FA's are going to need a little extra financial incentive to go to Minnesota versus somewhere else. Not all, but some.

Harrison is even less likely to stick at 3B than Sano, correct? Are any of our SS prospects candidates to move to 3B?

I'm onboard with trading Morneau, but I'm not sure you're getting any value from him right now. I think I'd be inclined to trade him and eat some of his salary for a couple A-ball flamethrowers and hope one of them pans out. Honestly, I think I'd probably be more inclined to hold onto him until the deadline next year to see where things stand in hopes his value increases (or the Twins are in contention). Signing 3 FA pitchers to semi-long-term deals seems almost guaranteed to have one of them bust. Finding playing time for Parmelee means one of Morneau/Span/Revere/Willingham has to go. Or, god forbid, actually using management skills and finding a rotation amongst those 5 plus Doumit and Mauer which gives everybody an occasional game off. I know somebody posted it somewhere on the board previously, but I'm too lazy to look for it. With 3 OF spots, C, 1B, and DH you have 6 positions to fill with 7 players. It wouldn't seem far-fetched to believe you could set it up so each of those guys gets a day off each week instead of jerking Parmelee around (plus you actually have a semi-legit PH option for every game). Then again, I'll be shocked if Span isn't traded this offseason, so the problem goes away (sort of, until Hicks/Arcia are ready).

Take out his 2009 Cy Young season and he doesn't look all that special. He's a very good pitcher, significantly better than anything the Twins have, but not worthy of 5+ years and $90+ million dollars. Being the best FA pitcher on the market any given year does wonders for the inflation of salary for said player (see Wilson, C.J., or Lackey, John). That one season just looks crazy amongst all his other seasons, it's so much better than any of his others. And for someone who's now pitched in the majors for 9 years (though he missed most of a season back in '06), it's hard to believe he's ever getting anywhere near that '09 season again. Figure on seasons of around 100-120 ERA+ (i.e. occasionally average, occasionally very good) from him from here on out. A drastic improvement if you're the Twins, but they can't afford what he's probably going to get for what he's probably going to contribute.

Capps isn't a bad pitcher, he just cost the Twins too much. I actually respect that he tried his best pitching through injuries, and trying desperately to get back from one. I wouldn't even mind if they brought him back, since they won't lose a draft choice this time, but it would have to be for far less money and not as the "closer." Another fairly reliable guy in the bullpen would be nice. I suspect they can get someone else to do about the same job he would, though, so I would assume the general bad will towards him from most fans means he's pitched his last game for the Twins.

Yeah, A-rod stuck in Minnesota, away the big lights of New York, or the party-town of South Beach (the Marlins being the rumored destination I've seen). Can you say locker room cancer? I could see him playing well for a while, but it would only be in an effort to get traded back to someplace he wanted to be.

Wouldn't having the trees there be considered something of a "home field advantage?" Twins hitters should get accustomed to it, where visitors who only visit occasionally would struggle.

Jeter is exactly who I was thinking of when I posted that. I guess it comes down to a philosophical thing, but when comparing Mauer's ~.410 OBP to what the Twins have to offer as an alternate (~.350 for Span, ~.330 for Revere), I think the difference is severe enough to warrant pretty serious consideration. If we had someone who could post a .380+ OBP and steal 30+ bases, I'd probably agree they should use that guy as leadoff, but with the options they have right now (obviously could change), I'd vote for Mauer.

Any reason Mauer shouldn't be the leadoff hitter? I see a lot of people suggest #2, but I'm not sure why that makes more sense than leadoff. His OBP warrants as many at-bats as possible, I would think. But instead we get the same old "your best-average hitter is your #3" that the Twins have been running out there for as long as I can remember. Yeah, he's not a base-stealer, but I'll take someone being on base as often as possible over someone who's on-base less often but occasionally steals a base. I like the notion of the original post. If Boston says "I'd like to talk about Mauer" you have to listen. Honestly, I don't see much reason not to listen to anybody asking about anyone. "Interested in Sano, Buxton, and Gibson? Sure, what are you offering?" After you've heard them out you can always say no, but why not listen? I'd be really surprised to find out TR wouldn't even hear somebody out, even if I don't expect a whole lot of actual transactions. I won't speculate as to what's a fair offer, it's way outside my depth, but Mauer does seem like a good fit for Fenway.