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Dantes929

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Everything posted by Dantes929

  1. Dantes929
    Except it is trending down even without Pelfrey in the equation. Every other starter has a lower ERA now than at the end of April. Correia for example went from 7.33 down to 5.87. Not great but hard to demote guys that are trending in the right direction.
  2. Dantes929
    I am with you but it is harder after he just gave up a single run against the Yankees in his last start. Finally under a 6 ERA and trending down just makes it tough to cut him. He was pretty good for us last year which gives him a little longer leash. I think he earned another start. I said this yesterday that I fear that he will be just good enough for the Twins not to demote him but bad enough for the fans to want him replaced. I would say several good starts in a row would make him attractive trade wise and a couple more bad ones in a row will be enough to pull the trigger. The tough part comes when he throws a good game every other start. After a bad one you say ok, another one like that he is gone but then he throws a good game so you give him another chance and so on.
  3. Dantes929
    Like to point out every once in a while that Dozier was an 8th round choice and the #30 Twins prospect in 2010. Just to show that while a lot of attention is on the high prospects and we have a lot of them, they don't always pan out. On the other hand there are those lower rated prospects that do pan out. Its why I don't mind seeing projections but try to ignore ceiling comments especially for position players.
  4. Dantes929
    Its true Seth, Injuries, free agency, position changes all argue that you don't draft out of need. Mauer came up when we had a very solid catcher in AJ and though some may not think so now it worked out pretty well for us.
  5. Dantes929
    No problem taking Gordon but I will say Escobar has been a pleasant surprise. I was not high on him when we got him but he has won me over for the time being. Santana also looks like he could stick. Best part is I really haven't seen a drop off in defense since Florimon left. These guys have turned a huge weakness into a strength. Hopefully they can keep it up.
  6. Dantes929
    Answer is every single other team. No team is going to sign guys for multi year contracts for big money and then not give them at least a half a year barring worse performances than we have seen so far. It is likely if Corriea had bombed his last two outings he would be sent down but that is not the case. I would have been all right with a youth movement but can you imagine the Twins sitting patt and then have Meyer and May bust along with Gibson and Deduno? Deduno replaced Pelfrey and Nolasco and Correia both have their ERA's under 6. Not a great stat until you consider they have spent most of the season over 6. Pitching is trending positive. They allowed 4 fewer runs in May even though they played one more game. Offense shrunk considerable though. June off to a great start for both.
  7. Dantes929
    Short term Correia throwing a good game was bad. It will guarantee him at least two more starts. Mid term if Correia can put several good games together he will become attractive as trade bait. I want to see Meyer and May up but the two logical candidates based on performance are Nolasco and Correia ant the organization is going to give them a good size leash and they both threw 1 run ball against the Yankees. At least Pelfrey is out of the equation for the time being.
  8. Dantes929
    Yes, pretty exciting that there are 4 guys with at least 8 starts that deserve a call up and the one with the highest ERA is Alex Meyer. Guessing all 4 could outperform Correia right now. Wonder how short his leash is. Guessing if he does well today it will earn him another 2 starts but what if he gets shelled today? Nolasco stepped up last night. Maybe Correia will as well. I would not root against the Twins and I know the best result would be for him to throw 4 great games in a row in order to build trade value but I just don't think it likely. Likely is that he throws just well enough to avoid being sent down but poorly enough that we want him sent down. What a difference from the last three years when it really didn't matter cuz we had nothing in Rochester that was any better. Now we have 4 of them.
  9. Dantes929
    Did Eddie Rosario play? Any word at all on Buxton?
  10. Dantes929
    Exactly. He is supposed to be fast and his minor league numbers are better than Hicks were. I have not given up on Hicks but I was always a little more intrigued by Rosario. Still hoping Hicks gets it together and next year we see our fastest outfield ever in Buxton, Hicks, and Rosario.
  11. Dantes929
    "In general, pitchers that throw with velocity get more K's -More K's usually means better overall numbers" There is a lot of room in that general. I remember in a year the Giants won it they threw the fastball less than any other team and the velocity of their fastball was middle of the pack. That is going by memory and I don't know where to get the velocity stats but easy to go look at baseball reference for this year. I think you will agree that ERA is a much better value than strikeout totals. Best three teams for ERA are A's, Braves, and Giants yet they rank 17th, 4th and 14th in strikeouts. Top 3 teams for strikeouts are Dodgers, Indians and Yankees and their ERA ranks are 8, 20, and 17. I value control and stuff over velocity but I guess we can agree that the recent editions of the Twins have not had enough of any of the 3.
  12. Dantes929
    Tobi, I admit the %s were just off the top of my head. Viola, Radke and Buehrle all spent time as aces and certainly there is much that exists between Clemens and Zumaya. Maybe replace Viola with Pavano or even just go with Buehrle and Clemens. Clemens had a career 3.12 ERA and lets steroid adjust it to 3.3. No denying Clemens was better but they both had a lot of success. Where is the cutoff point for the odds of just those two or bust? Would you take a 10% flyer on Clemens over 100% chance of a Buehrle? I know Clemens is rare but Buehrle's do not grow on trees, either. It was all for the sake of argument.
  13. Dantes929
    There is the risk and there is what is fun about baseball. Mark Buehrle would contradict that you need to miss bats or strike out people to be successful. Frank Viola would contradict that it is necessary to have a blazing fastball to strike people out. Nolan Ryan would argue that it certainly helps to have a blazing fastball. It is most likely that the #1 in the draft will not become a legendary player. Less likely that the #5 will . If you think Kolek has a 10% chance of being Roger Clemens, a 40% chance of being Joel Zumaya and a 50% chance of being a bust do you take him? Do you take that over Nola if Nola has a 20% chance of being Viola, 20% chance of being Buehrle, 30% chance of being Radke and #30% chance of being a bust? I agree that you do not look short term but risk reward is very real.
  14. Dantes929
    I read all 4 pages of comments and none of them said it better than the 1st one.
  15. Dantes929
    "It's like aiming for another division title knowing it has next to no chance of turing into a World Series title" All division titles have a fair chance at turning into a WS title. Just because it didn't turn that way for the Twins the assumption is that it couldn't have. I agree that Radke shouldn't be the goal. Santana or Liriano or Verlander should be the goal but if you shoot for Verlander and he ends up producing like Radke that is ok since there are very few Verlanders out there and Radke wasn't bad.
  16. Dantes929
    "have to believe that at least one of them will end up being a significant improvement over Correia and possibly Gibson" At the moment insert Nolasco in place of Gibson. Not that Gibson has been a world beater but his ERA is one and a half runs better than Nolasco.
  17. Dantes929
    "NOT striking out anyone is pretty much a guarantee of NOT having success." Mark Buehrle is 9-1 with a 2.33 ERA and 5.2 strike outs per 9. Hughes strikeout rate is lower than his career average but having his best year. Its not just the lack of walks though that is huge. Its that he uses both sides of the plate and has command of where he is throwing it. Pitching to contact isn't bad. Doing it badly is bad.
  18. Dantes929
    The rest of his quote " . In particular, I had an easier time recognizing the breaking ball out of the hand of a right hander as a right handed hitter. I also took away the back-door breaking ball from right handers. That is one of Hick's weaknesses as a left-handed hitter. " is valid regardless of level and pressures. I always though he looked particularly weak from the left side against curve balls breaking into him. Fact is he is 2 for 4 against right handers. How long did it take him to get his 1st two hits last year and how long before he got a multi hit game. Concentrating on one swing should only help him.
  19. Dantes929
    It was his natural side to start with. Its like being surprised a right handed hitter should have chosen batting left handed. He wasn't really a switch hitting talent.
  20. Dantes929
    Exactly my thoughts. Add in the number that should never have taken it up in the 1st place. Hick's splits have always impeded his progress and my guess was that the absolute ceiling for hitting lefty against righty was the same as his stats batting righty against righty. Doesn't take much logic to say that is a losing proposition if the brightest outlook is to break even. As far as I am concerned Hicks should be judged from this day forward. Getting all his reps from the right side should do nothing but help. I remember Jim Eisenriech trying switch hitting in legion ball. He was ok but he was never going to be as good from the right side so gave it up. Someone should have recognized that in Hicks as well. I tend to give the Twins more benefit of the doubt but if a doofus like me can see it and predict it just from stats and his slow development I have to lay some blame at their feet. It shouldn't have been a decision in the hands of Hicks to start with. This is long overdue, IMO.
  21. Dantes929
    I have liked Willingham a lot but not excited about him coming back. Definitely looking forward to Arcia coming back and staying back.
  22. Dantes929
    I would agree with that though even when he is touching that he doesn't seem to miss a whole lot of bats. I don't believe it is a phhyscal thing with him and whatever mechanical flaw that is keeping him from throwing hard is also keeping him from throwing accurately. If he can get back to the way he was throwing last July I would like him replacing Correia. If not then May or Meyer replacing Correia.
  23. Dantes929
    I am one of the few supporters of Pelfrey and while the 5 scoreless is nice I don't think it should be much of a factor. 43 strikes in 83 pitches is horrible. Is his velocity back to near 95? Comes down to command and velocity for Pelfrey. If he doesn't have it, keep him down there til he does.
  24. Dantes929
    No big deal but you have Arcia as pitcher of the day and Pelfrey as hitter.
  25. Dantes929
    Well, I don't want to trade him for pitching since he is a good pitcher himself. Our biggest current need is outfield but Willingham and Arcia are coming back, Parmalee is doing all right and Hicks is getting on base along with the fact that we all hope Buxton and Rosario will soon be out there so I don't want him traded for an outfielder that will just muddy the picture even more. Shortstop is the other spot so if we can package him with Santana for a guy we think will be better than Santana and will be a long term guy there then that would make sense. Otherwise, enjoy having a good reliever for the 8th inning. The hallmark of most Twins winning seasons has been that a lead after 7 will stay a lead. Tons of value there so only trade it for commensurate value.
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