Riverbrian

Just sitting at work... Doing a ton of repetitive data entry. Listening to the game... Trying to imagine the plays in my head from the description which causes a lack of focus and entry of wrong data and having to back and fix the errors and a ton of ton data entry left to go. Baseball Rules!!!

I agree... I think both years were probably outliers. I think it all comes down to opportunity to do something out of the norm. BTW... Using eye test data... I've always thought that Gutierrez was one of the few players that lowered Pitchers ERA's by himself. When he had a 30 UZR... I was like... Damn Right... this stat agrees with me... It rules. I just can't anymore... However... I don't want it thrown away... I want it... it's info... I just want it tempered... and I don't like players being hung by it year to year knowing the sample size isn't sufficient. Perhaps the biggest problem with UZR is this: The data that makes up the stat isn't transparent for the average fan to recreate and this leads to massive misunderstanding and misuse..

Gutierrez went from +30 to +5 one year to the next because there isn't enough non routine plays to stabilize the stat in a given year. Yet the stat is quoted by the year and used to hang players by many year to year... And the stat is folded in to WAR and WAR is used to hang or glorify players. If UZR is the best we got... We ain't got much. My opinion... nothing more... nothing less. I've looked into because I wanted to believe in it. I'm a defensive freak to a fault.

Its hard to quantify the true result of the identical catch with no one on. Its hard to quantify what happens with the bases loaded and two outs as well... Its easy to say "3 runs saved by that catch" ... but we don't know what the guy hitting behind him would have done. He now gets to reach into that raffle drum. A raffle drum that has 3 "reach base" cards and 7 "out" cards. When the catch happens with zero outs... or the bad jump happens with zero outs... its harder to quantify because there is more baseball left in an inning. You can go through history and come up with an average... 0.4 runs saved on average... for X outs... X base runners... all games... all time. But baseball games are decided when the game blows past the average. In my opinion... when a team scores 5 runs in an inning on you... Its usually game over. When you look back at those big innings... You can usually find a play where a defender could have contributed to stopping it... preventing it. By moving his feet... by not laying up on a soft liner... by not double clutching on a DP chance. These moments happen with zero outs and two outs. Most times there is no effect to the game but some times its part of a landslide and those landslides lose games. Its about outs... Give them an extra one and you risk the landslide... Steal an out from them... Its a lot harder for them to string something together. These moments are huge and very hard to quantify. Each landslide is hell on a pitchers ERA. Apart from Dozier... The Twins don't have players who steal outs defensively. This is a handicap our average pitchers have to overcome and something the Twins need to fix or we will be complaining about pitching for awhile.

If all 250 lazy fly balls where in the same high percentage zone. He'd be above zero but not by a lot. If he was standing in a low percentage zone for each lazy flyball.. His UZR would be record setting. Each zone is weighted using data of balls caught or not caught in that zone collected over the years. All players... all games... all plays. There are zones where the ball is caught so often that a caught ball in that zone will barely move the UZR needle upward. In those Zones... The only big needle moves are down and it takes one ball not caught. There are also zones where not catching a ball will barely move the needle down but if you catch the ball in that zone... The needle moves big time up on one catch.

The question is why is UZR fluctuating wildly. It isn't about a fielder getting hot or cold. UZR has to sift through routine play after routine play. Ball hit into Zone 8D -- Caught Ball hit into Zone 8D -- Caught Ball hit into Zone 8D -- Caught Repeat this 35 more times and pretty soon Zone 8D has an out percentage of 98%. And then Ball into Zone 8D -- Not Caught UZR will then factor in that balls in zone 8D are caught 98% of the time and weight it accordingly. That one ball not caught because a player lost the ball in the sun or was shifted over into Zone 7A and he falls into a huge UZR hole that is impossible to climb back out of. Why is it hard to climb out of it? Because he only get a couple of chances a game and those chances are... Routine flyball into Zone 8 -- Caught... Just like everyone else is doing. UZR is a bad stat because it penalizes one mistake or one bad shift to harshly. Defense is the exact opposite of hitting stats. A hitter gets a hit 3 times out of ten... A fielder makes the play 9 times out 10. If the fielder makes a play 9 times out of ten... It's going to take a lot of chances to correct that one time when it didnt happen. And that's why UZR fluctuates like a ping pong ball on steroids.

In my opinion... I applaud the efforts but most defensive metrics are half cooked in my opinion... Some day... They will be cooked and I wait for that day. On the subject of defense... I believe it's huge but really hard to quantify. It's all about the extra out or stolen outs and isolated moments in games and the crooked number that kills teams. One ball not caught can be the difference between hanging a zero for an inning and allowing five in an inning. When a pitcher is struggling and our pitchers have struggled a lot. Lorenzo Cain running one down that Shin Soo Choo Couldnt run down or Nolen Arenado making a sick play can provide that one out the struggling pitcher needed to escape any inning with average stuff. On the reverse side.... Delmon Young spinning around like a confused tourist can give the opposing team one more chance to find the seats or lace a double down the line or both. It can and has led to the crooked number and ball games can end on a crooked number in the 4th inning. I've seen it too many times... Most crooked numbers have someone screwing up defensively somewhere and it doesn't always show up with a big red E in the box score. And if Gibson gives up 4 in an inning because Plouffe didn't move his feet to the left to get him out of the inning.. It's going to take a few innings of scoreless ball to stabilize that ERA. Make the play and you can sit down unscathed. Defensively... I like Dozier... I think Mauer was very solid 2nd half of the season. And that's about it. The rest of the team is average to below average. As a whole...mthe team doesn't have the defensive skill to help our pitchers who need the help. Braves pitchers love Simmons and they all know that they have lower ERA's because of Simmons.

I still don't understand this. I've read articles and comments saying what a bad defensive player Nunez was with the Yankees. The only problem is... I still haven't seen it. I watched a lot of Twins baseball and at no point did I say to myself... This Nunez guy is bad defensively. I'm capable of saying it... I've said that Plouffe was bad defensively after watching him in 2012 and 2013 (not 2014). I thought Delmon Young was as bad as it gets. But for Nunez... I honestly haven't seen this bad defender. Ok... OF needs a little work but he can find flybAll's... But in the IF... I just haven't seen the evidence. I just wonder if this is more rep then actual performance. As for Santana... I'm glad he's coming home to SS if that's where he is best. A good manager will find at bats for Escobar if he is also playing well. It's all good. My only concern about Santana at SS comes from looking at CF and knowing that he's the only guy on the roster who can play CF and proven for at least a year that he should be in a major league lineup.

I ain't trading him. Depth is important!!! if you worry about regression... Depth kinda helps. Unless the Mets are shipping Harvey or Wheeler or DeGrom or that Noah Kid. I ain't trading him.

Dang Right... Especially during ST... The scoreboard doesn't matter... It's about moments... At bats... Pitches and getting dirty.

Tom Kelly?

I was thinking about those Whale Crackers

Watching this O' Rourke guy... Bring back Stauffer

We are having pitching issues

I've seen all good people Roundabout Owner of a Lonely Heart It can Happen Long distance Runaround

Had Banana bread for lunch today... Opened the fridge and there it was... I said... Yum... Lookie there... Banana Bread for me. Turned out to be meat loaf.

Escobar!!! OK.. Stauffers turn

Good News Bad News Good News: Papa Murphy's makes the best pizza in my opinion... My youngest Son works at Papa Murphy's So he gets make a pizza for himself and he brings one home frequently. Bad News: My son likes Pineappple on his Pizza

I'm gonna call JB "Rick Allen" until she says she's two handed again.

I don't think he did... But one day he might.

Concur... And throw in a Come On Stauffer while you're at it.

Hunter is gonna have to work with Hicks on the art of the home run rob. Jumping into the fence while jumping up usually impedes progress.

Still one handed? You've had that injury for awhile now.

I really don't have an excuse... Do I? I have a Garmin in my car and Gas Money.

Me 2... Concur comes out of me out of habit automatically now. Even on things I'm opposed to... So I gotta break the habit. I spent last weekend moving all of our stored stuff from one side of the basement to the other because my wife thought it was a good idea and I responded with "Concur" when I meant to say... "Why the hell would I do that".