Riverbrian

I have no idea but they might be trying to adjust it and it's causing the hold up. All the GM's and Support staff are seeing what you are pointing out about the contracts and production. And as a result... the players and the agents are starting to speak up because they are sensing an adjustment. Ultimately tho... The CBA would have to be adjusted to make an adjustment. Full disclosure... I'm on the players side... they are not hurting for money so I'm not losing sleep but I am on the players side. For 6 years... Players are controllable. The players have no choice at all. For the first 6 years... Lorenzo Cain was paid 21.5M. Based on his production over that time... you could say that he was very underpaid in comparison. When Cain reaches free agency he finally gets leverage. (Only for those who are good enough to survive the first 6 years). This is Lorenzo's time to use that leverage... play where he wants to play instead of what team drafted him and held him securely. The Problem players run into with the CBA is that they are controlled over their most productive years so once GM"s starting looking at the metrics... like you have. They start questioning the value of signing long contracts and when they refuse to offer them. We get long hold outs... we get players threatening to strike and agents starting to point fingers... because the players held up their end of the bargain... they allowed themselves to be underpaid (by industry standards) to wait for the pay day and now the teams are saying... hey wait a second... we don't want to pay you here either. You raise a very valid point... but as you can see... the system was designed for this very thing. I don't know who said it... but there is a quote that I absolutely love: "Your systems are perfectly designed to give you the results you are getting". Brandon Moss was saying the same thing. http://www.nydailynews.com/sports/baseball/truth-moss-free-agent-freeze-out-article-1.3797095

Well Good... We are in agreement that it is indeed "Complicated". 1. Do you want Darvish at all? Are you saying that you wouldn't want Darvish no matter if the price was 1 year at 1M? 2. If the answer to "1." is "I wouldn't want Darvish at all" that becomes a different discussion and people are going to crawl out of the woodwork ready for that simple discussion. 3. If the answer to "1." is I would take him at 1 year/1M... we have now established wiggle room and the discussion gets much more complicated. Once we know that you are either "2." or "3." it will help us get to the crux of your issue and a whole new complicated discussion will avail itself. If you are willing to pay 1 year at 1 million and knowing that he is sure to get a larger offer. The complication becomes how much would you pay? Once you have a price set in your mind that you would be comfortable with. The market conditions are going to either surpass that number or they don't. If the market surpasses the number you are willing to pay... you will have to decide if you want the player. You seem to have decided that you don't want the player but is there a number where Darvish makes sense? Once the market conditions reveal themselves. You are back to the question... Do you want him at all or is there a more sensible choice out there. If you believe that Cobb makes more sense... then you are back to putting together a term of contract you are comfortable with for Cobb instead of Darvish but if the market surpasses what you are comfortable paying... are you willing to go higher to get the guy that you want? What if the Cobb Market is close to the Darvish Market? Are you now out completely? There is a ton of complication to navigate. You haven't made your case.

Thank You I try Actually... I will expand this post. You are trying to get someone to take the bait that someone will produce some kind of proof that they "Know" Darvish will be better and when they do that... they will be immediately marginalized because how could anybody know. You don't know either. Darvish could get hurt on the 1st pitch of the 1st spring training and be done for the rest of his career. Darvish could below average for the entire length of contract. It is a legit concern for any contract offer. You are clearly in the don't sign him camp and that is a respectable opinion. There are some of us who are in the sign him camp and there are some of us in the sign him camp that realize that it could all go terribly wrong and still willing to roll the dice. My response was my way saying... I'm hoping nobody takes the bait that you just flung out there.

Of course I have no idea what is happening... I can only assume this: Yu wants the Yankees and Dodgers to enter the arena because it may be a preferred location but at the very least... The Yankees and Dodgers getting involved could raise the bar. The Yankees and Dodgers have stayed in contact because they are trying to move money. The Cubs are hoping to appeal with their championship potential but are probably low balling because everything they have done this off-season suggests budget restraint. Yu would have to take a lesser offer to play for the Cubs. The Brewers and Twins are the non-typical FA Players... They would have to be at or near the top of the discussed parameters. Not saying Contract offer but parameters of a comfort level. The Rangers are out according to Jon Daniels. The Phillies are the other team to watch that very few talk about... They could enter. Then again... I could be completely wrong. But Yu is waiting for something or someone it seems.

If anyone has rationale behind "knowing" Darvish will be as good... you wouldn't be able to take it seriously. If anyone has rationale behind "knowing" that Darvish will not be as good... you wouldn't be able to take it seriously.

(High Five)

https://www.rosterresource.com/mlb-los-angeles-angels-info/ Pujols AAV -3M Upton AAV +5 Simmons AAV +3 Tack on 5M to the estimated 169M and we might be in the ball park. I'm also not sure if that 169M on Roster Resource contains the 7.3M in retained money. I'm also not sure if Sportrac contains the 5.9M in Non Guarentee Contracts. Which is just to say I'm estimating the best I can.

Kinsler and Cozart are missing from the halosheaven link. That's about 23.67 AAV.

I was throwing out a number... with no idea of its correctness. But... Donaldson and Machado are potential trade deadline chips. Greinke could be a trade deadline chip like Verlander was last year. Perhaps, most importantly... I also believe that the Competitive Balance Tax is based on the AAV of the contract not the year to year number. This way teams can't front or back load to work around it. Potential trades for players with time left remaining on the contract would be averaged out. Verlander for example would be a bigger 2017 cap hit to the Astros then what is left to be paid in 2017 because of the 68M remaining on his contract. Basically... If you sign a player to a 5 year contract and it pays like this. 2018: 5M 2019:10M 2020:15M 2021: 20M 2022: 25M That's a 5 year 75M deal with an AAV of 15M. Each year 15M will be what counts toward the cap. Teams don't get extra cap room in 2018 with 5M and they are not squeezed harder in 2022 when 25M is due the player.

That would depend on Arte Moreno just saying screw it... let's go for it... like I did before and it didn't work it. I'm guessing the Angels are around 20M to 23M below the 197M competitive balance tax threshold. Any team that fancies themselves competitive will want some cushion for trade deadline possibles. How much cushion? IDK... Guessing 10M? and that is only a guess... maybe even a weak guess. Angels would have to willfully go over the cap (Moreno has taken out the checkbook before) or trade assets like Calhoun or Valbuena to clear the space. It's just looking like everyone is trying to stay under the cap this year.

If you put all your eggs in one basket... you better be prepared to pay whatever it takes to get the basket.

Ervin Santana on the mound facing Didi Gregorius in the bottom of the 1st inning of the AL Wild Card Game. The Twins are leading 3-0... There is one out with runners on 1st and 3rd. 1st Pitch: Fastball Fouled off 0-1 2nd Pitch: Fastball up out of the zone for a ball 1-1 3rd Pitch: Fastball up out of the zone for a ball 2-1 4th Pitch: Change Fouled off 2-2 5th Pitch: Fastball in the zone. RULED A BALL. Would have been a strikeout for the 2nd out. Who knows what happens after that. The Twins are still not guaranteed victory. However... 6th Pitch: Home Run to RF... Game Tied. **** happens... it is what it is... nothing we can do about it... Wait... there is something we can do about it. http://www.espn.com/mlb/playbyplay?gameId=371003110

In other words. If that's the best he can do.

Dear Falvey and Lavine, You better walk away with a difference maker this year. Don't screw this up. Sincerely Riverbrian

Too big a risk. This is the year to make his money. Just like it is risky for teams to sign FA pitchers... it is also risky for Pitchers to not lock up a long term deal. He gets hurt... He just lost a 100 million dollar bet. Players would much rather put the risk on the ownership and understandably so. The players have been risking it all. For 6 years they have been praying to dodge those injury landmines just to get here. If I'm Arrieta... I want my money now.

Yep Yep and Yep to everything you are saying. I'm sure the Dodgers are trying to move Kemp and I'm sure the Dodgers are telling Yu's agent that they are trying. I can even believe that the Dodgers would appeal to Yu so I can see him waiting just in case. Basically... According to my math... The Dodgers are at the limit because they need some wiggle room in case they want to do somethings at the trade deadline. They would have to clear similar salary to whatever they offer Darvish. Puig by himself won't do it... They need to move Kemp. Or Half of Kemp plus a Puig or Ryu or Grandal or Forsythe. Or 2 of Puig, Ryu, Grandal or Forsythe. Tight free agent market can also signify a tight trade market as well. Very few seem to be in a hurry to add 20 million to their payroll. Will they get it done... maybe... Darvish seems to be heartened enough to wait... must be a reason for waiting or else someone in the Dodgers org is leading his agent on. I'm guessing... Hopefully logically but it sure seems like time is not our friend.

I don't believe that Mauer's contract caused the Twins to pick up cheap pitchers. I only believe that Mauer's contract guaranteed Joe a decent salary for the duration.

There are multiple windows open. Multiple Rebuilding Clubs is just one of them. Competitive Tax Reset is a window The most impressive Free Agent Class in history next year is a window for this eyar Stacked AAA Arms in Rochester is a window. I agree with you Nick... Nice Article Cleveland... I hand them Nothing!!!

I'm printing this quote on a piece of paper with the "basdeball" spelled differently. I'm then wrapping the piece of paper around a rock. Then I'm throwing the rock through the window of the MLB Offices.

Back in 1999 the folks at Blockbuster Video said similar stuff. a. People keep coming in and renting Toy Story 2. b. We are currently valued at 2.5 Billion c. This punishing our customers with late fees thing is increasing our revenues YOY. 4 years later... During a meeting of the board of directors. One of the board members was suggesting that they failed to adjust to market conditions while another board member was on Wikipedia researching Chapter 11 while the Chairman was pointing at a big chart that showed a clear reversal of fortune. ​The Rise and Fall of Blockbuster is completely unrelated to the future of baseball. Blockbuster ripped me off once and I have never forgiven them so I like pointing out how stupid they were when context allows.

Todd Frazier and Carlos Gomez are the two free agents that... IMO... legitimately improve our team. Frazier could slot in at 3B if Sano has any issues preventing him from playing 3B for a stretch. That would move Escobar to multiple position role at SS and 2B from time to time. Frazier is a legit 30 plus home run guy. Frazier could take Adrianaza's spot on the roster. Gomez can play all 3 OF positions but specifically play CF if Buxton tweeks a hammy. Gomez and Buxton in the same OF would cover ground along with Kepler and Rosario. Gomez has some legit pop if he keeps his head and helmet on straight. Gomez could take Grossman's spot (I love Grossman but Gomez is in upgrade). I'm not a starting 9 and some other players guy. Adding Frazier and Gomez in my mind doesn't mean that Escobar and Kepler won't play. I want 25 guys who can produce and I want competition at all positions. We would be adding insurance for injury and failure and if no one gets injured or fails... that would be wonderful. Molitor can easily rotate the playing time so everybody gets fed and I'll see you for Game 1 of the World Series at Target Field. I'm not saying we should... I'm just saying those are two players that I think will improve the club.

Research told McDonalds that they wanted healthy food options. McDonalds introduced the McLean as a result of what seemed to be undeniable data. The people spoke but the people didn't put their money where their mouth was. When you ask people to make suggestions there are times when they say things that they think they should say. Umm... Healthy Food... Yeah... Healthy Food... that's what I'm supposed to say. Baseball clearly has a major demographic issue that needs to be addressed and they don't have that long to address it. The median age is 55, it won't be long before the bulk of the audience ages out of the prime demo real estate that attract advertisers. The advertisers will placing ad buys with the coupons offered by your favorite team. It's a serious problem. When conducting research to solve this serious problem. I totally believe that the number one issue would reveal itself as pace of play. However... I'm not sure they are drilling down what they mean by that. I just don't believe that a pitch clock saving 10 minutes or the extra 10 minutes saved by limiting mound visits and pitching changes is going to fix it. Lowering the average length of game from 3 hours and 7 minutes to 2 hours and 47 minutes isn't the button that turns on the future generations. They can barely make it through one inning without flipping over to the WWE and forgetting to go back to the game. Baseball is what it is. It's a game built on failure and failure means the routine over and over again until someone hits one 500 feet. The problem isn't time... it's the action. They need to think about connecting with the increasingly distracted younger generation. This needs to be done with technology. Use technology to get the game on every smart phone, tablet, or whatever so people can watch the game with ease. Tired of whatever App... I can easily flip the game on. Don't charge an arm and a leg for viewing rights. Think Cume... a little from the many instead of milking the few. Use that same technology to create stars. If you don't know who Mike Trout is... Hang in there... we will educate you by plastering Mike Trout funny videos on every social media site. Make Trout and Byron Buxton human interest stories so people can relate to them. Use the technology to educate and entertain. Don't think you are too hip for the room if you introduce spin rates or launch angles. The more people know... the more they will get into it. Educate... share the details. Get Rid of Dick and Bert. I'm sorry to say it... I love those guys... but... broadcasts need to re-brand themselves. Dick and Bert style is yesterday. If broadcasts are going to explain the new data and educate people about the game of baseball... we are going to need people who understand it. The Big smooth tones of Dick won't matter anymore... It will be the content... can he entertain? Can he liven up the dull times that are inherent in the game. And please stop worrying about the short term buck and stop quibbling over territorial rights and make sure that the Twins Fans can access the action in Iowa, Vermont or anywhere on every device possible for as economically as possible. Think Cume... a little from the many instead of milking the few. It's also going to take a culture change from the 1920 baseball ideals that are still adhered to. Baseball got a big clue toward the right direction of actually entertaining a younger generation during the WBC and Ian Kinsler was sure to slap the Puerto Rico baseball team for that... Let them know that fun is not allowed is what Ian and our 1920 traditions are saying. Let them do backflips around the bases after home runs. Enough Library Baseball or you get beaned.

To Mikelink, on a personal note. I do tip my hat to you. You have doggedly stuck to your opinion against all comers and you have done so respectfully and that shows you are first class guy. Your courage and grace deserves that respect... the same type of respect that I would offer to that brave guy or gal who rushes into a burning building to save a salamander.

LOL Norm's Tire Sales in Roseville open's at 7:30 every morning.

I respect your opinion... but you are basically saying that you are out on Free Agency. Not only turning off the spigot but removing it from the house followed by welding the pipe shut. In my opinion... you are right and also wrong at the same time. Right: The basic outline of your opinion really can't be argued. Teams are indeed signing long term contracts to players who often don't perform at a level that the terms of the contract suggest they should. Wrong: Your fear of a less than optimal result isn't reasonable despite being correct on your basic point. The cost of these contracts is baked into the ledgers so teams are mitigating the end result... whatever that may be. All teams should be able to afford a big contract or two regardless if they work out because the CBA keeps those young players that make up the majority of a roster at the league minimum or at least somewhat affordable while they are controlloble. If a team can't afford a big contract or two... the churn will be hard to stomach. I don't want my Twins to take the approach that the Rays and A's take. We are a small market but I don't think we have to act quite as small as Oakland and Tampa. You have used Pujols as an example of a bad contract numerous times. Open it up and take a look at the payments by year. 2012: Age 32 - 12M 2013: Age 33 - 16M 2014: Age 34 - 23M 2015: Age 35 - 24M 2016: Age 36 - 25M 2017: Age 37 - 26M 2018: Age 38 - 27M 2019: Age 39 - 28M 2020: Age 40 - 29M 2021: Age 41 - 30M I'm sure you don't believe that Jerry Dipoto was thinking that Albert Pujols was going to have his best year at age 41 and therefore paid the most in that final year. I'm also sure that you probably believe that Jerry Dipoto was probably fully aware that Pujols may actually be a liability at age 41. Yet... the Angels paying him more that final year. Dipoto and Arte Moreno went ahead, offered and signed the contract anyway. That should tell you that the clubs are baking the cost, the risk, the decline... all of it into the process or they wouldn't pay him the highest dollar amount at age 41. It would make them ridiculous. I feel it is a mistake to assume that the Pujols contract is "damaging" or horrible. The Angels had their eyes wide open and were not duped or tricked. They did it because he was available and he entered free agency with a .328 career average and 445 home runs over 11 seasons. He was a once in a generation type of player. They did it because the other teams also wanted him. I've read comments from time to time suggesting that the Cards were smart to let Pujols go. However... The Cards reportedly offered Pujols a 10 year deal as well for 210 million. Same length and close to 4 million less AAV so the Cards were also willing to pay Pujols a lot of money into the age of 41 to keep him in St. Louis. They both wanted the player and who wouldn't want him. With the CBA... If you want the player it's nearly impossible to control the terms unless nobody else wants the player. You simply determine... Do you want him? If you do... You have to put the algorithms down. You have to put the actuary tables down. If the answer is NO... it simple... let somebody else pay... If the answer is kinda but you like some other options... then you can mess around a little. But if the Answer is Yes... or in the Twins case... The Answer is Yes and he is really the only player you seem to want... You can't mess around. Regression, injury risk... none of that matters anymore. I know you understand all of this but... in the end... it really weakens your point when you say that you would do 3 years for Darvish because it is similar to saying I'll give you a peanut butter and jelly sandwich for that Cadillac Escalade. Your Answer to the question "Do you Want Him?" is clearly NO. I'm answering the question "Yes". I'm just hoping to convince you that you are letting the dollar amount get in your way.