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Riverbrian

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Everything posted by Riverbrian

  1. Riverbrian
    I agreed with your earlier post mainly because I will always agree that you need a surplus in the bullpen. I’m just not sure yet about what the Twins have in the bullpen and not ready to declare anyone as “going to fail”. The Rays didn’t have a top end bullpen last year... nobody would have looked at that pen and said “eureka” but they had a surplus because the pen performed when asked. But I agree... you always need a surplus and you can’t get that surplus with 3 or 4 guys that you only trust in low leverage.
  2. Riverbrian
    Agreed
  3. Riverbrian
    Apparently, this was quite the controversial article. I didn't see the harm in it but after reading the responses... I decided to go back and read the article again. At no point did he compare the CAREER of Polanco to the CAREER of Carew. He listed the top OPS+ performances from Twins middle infielders. My personal all-time favorite Twin Mr. Rod Carew is sitting at the top and Cody was pointing out that Polanco is above that mark. If all Cody or anyone is allowed to write is: Polanco is having a great start to the season but let's see him do it for another 10 years... well, there won't be much point in writing that.
  4. Riverbrian
    I did Run expectancy: how many runs we can expect to score, on average, given a specific base/out state. That explains everything right there. "how many"? The chart illustrates that you will score less runs on average when you bunt and this is because when you sacrifice an out... you also sacrifice one-third of your ability to score multiple runs and therefore make it harder to hang a 6 on the scoreboard. As a result you score less runs and reduce expectancy in the process. The chart the article needs: What happens to the percentages of scoring one run and one run only. That's the chart that will tell you if Kepler or Adrianza should have bunted last night in the 8th. We didn't need 6 runs... we needed 1.
  5. Riverbrian
    I meant that. I'm sick and tired of ball guys.
  6. Riverbrian
    Considering that the runner needed to be moved over first and foremost... I think it's possible that Adrianza was the better choice in that situation. Either bunting or hitting the ball behind the runner. But, like Chief said and Jkcarew said... Sometimes players fail. Right now... Psychologically... I'm just hoping that the Twins are not trying to out homer each other. I've seen baseball teams get on home run rolls like the Twins have been on and get drunk with the power. The home runs come so easy that they start losing sight of the little things (like mere singles, driving in runs/keeping the chain moving) while in pursuit of the almighty dinger. I wouldn't proclaim it but I am suggesting the possibility that our struggles with runners in scoring position the past few games could be drunk with the power related. Just keep hitting the ball guys... they will still leave the park on occasion.
  7. Riverbrian
    Yep, You are not going to use your driver to chip on to the green from 30 feet out. Teams and players need to have multiple clubs in the bag.
  8. Riverbrian
    This would be an overly simplistic view of things... however, this is how I look at it. When you bunt... you are playing for one run and one run only. Sure you'll take 5 runs in the inning if it happens but whenever, you lay down a bunt, you have lessened your chance to put 5 runs on the board that inning by creating the out and those outs are precious. So, whenever you bunt, you are saying forget 5 runs this inning... I need 1 run right now. You are laying down the bunt to get a single run across the plate. When you don't bunt, you are playing for as many runs as you can possibly get in a given inning and teams should always be trying to score as many runs as possible in any given inning. Unless, time is running out. That is the only time that playing for a single run and a single run only makes sense. If you are down a run or tied and that Single run keeps you alive or wins it. That's why I'm not bunting until the 8th or 9th inning and the game is tied or 1 run apart. If Astudillo would have hit a single instead of a double last night, leading off the 8th... I'm not sure that I would have bunted in that situation... but since it was a double... getting the pinch runner to third where a sacrifice fly or a seeing eye single through the drawn in infield ties the game. This isn't a moment to think about getting 5 runs in the 8th... this is a moment to think about tying the game up. This is one of the few situations were the bunt is almost required. It was an execution failure.
  9. Riverbrian
    I know you are not a bunt guy. I’m not a bunt guy either Because I’m a big believer in the crooked number and not making outs is how you produce the crooked number and producing the crooked number produces wins. However... if you are ever going to bunt... That would have been the time because the clock was running out. Once it is determined that you are not going to bunt. You better be able to pull that ball and get the runner over. Oh well... tomorrow is another day.
  10. Riverbrian
    Bottom of the 8th Inning: The Twins are down a run. Astudillo leads offs with a double. Schoop pinch ran for Astudillo and Kepler pinch hit for Adrianza. Kepler failed to advance Schoop and he really needs to advance the runner in that situation. The game is 9 innings long with plenty of time and opportunity to produce something therefore I'm not going to say that was the ball game. However... at that moment and context... that was the ballgame.
  11. Riverbrian
    Agree with your post entirety. Thinking Nelson Cruz would be healthy for 162 games is a little optimistic.
  12. Riverbrian
    I hate to suggest it because the answer drives me a little crazy but... The Tigers and Blue Jays are not blessed with left-handed hitters. Neither are the Yankees or Astros for that matter. Like I said... I hate to suggest it because I disagree with what I am suggesting. Conservation is my suggestion because we only have one left hander in the bullpen and his name is Taylor Rogers. Here come the Angels with 5 left handed hitters to contend with and a bunch of lefties with the Mariners... If Rogers is healthy and If I'm right... We will see him alot this week. So yeah... my guess is conservation and It's the opposite of what I'd like to see done with Rogers.
  13. Riverbrian
    Here's the template that Baldelli is following. Vs. RH 1. Kepler 2. Polanco 3. Cruz 4. Rosario 5. Cron 6. Gonzalez 7. Schoop or Garver 8. Castro or Schoop 9. Buxton Vs. LH 1. Garver 2. Polanco 3. Cruz 4. Rosario 5. Cron 6. Gonzalez 7. Kepler 8. Schoop 9. Buxton When Astudillo plays... he typically goes into the slot of the player who isn't in the lineup leaving the rest of the template undisturbed. When Adrianza or Cave plays... they will bat 7th or 8th and this will push the 6th, 7th and 8th hitters in the template up one place. It's pretty predictable... I'm not complaining... we are winning. I just don't understand why a template is necessary.
  14. Riverbrian
    Kepler has been leading off against RH's. Garver has been leading off against LH's. We faced an LH yesterday. Garver wasn't in the lineup. Astudillo was in the lineup instead and like Garver... he was batting lead-off. Very template-esque.
  15. Riverbrian
    I didn't see the game because I was driving in the car listening to it so any thoughts I have wouldn't be fair comment as far as the game goes. However... on this point, I have been watching. I want to state that I'm absolutely happy with the way things are being handled... I don't have complaint... however... It appears that players are locked into batting slots in the order and I don't understand the reason why. I know that they are trying to separate rights and lefts to give the opposing manager something to think about when trying to decide between a lefty or righty out of the pen and that is sensible but I've been watching and it is rather obvious that Baldelli has locked in players to similar slots in the batting order. I honestly don't care about batting order... go ahead and put Dave Kingman in the lead off spot... I really don't care... I'm also not a psychologist but I do strongly believe that players will not be emotionally damaged and unable to perform if they are moved around in the lineup. If he wants to put Astudillo in the lead off spot... I'm fine with it... But if he did it because Garver usually hits in that spot against lefties and Astudillo is replacing Garver... then I'm not fine with it... because that is auto-pilot managing and I don't care much for that.
  16. Riverbrian
    Yep It's really hard to build depth when two talented players at a position are a problem. As a result, Drew Butera is the typical example of catching surplus.
  17. Riverbrian
    It's always eye of the beholder so I was curious. My overall concern was that the definition of "surplus" at the catcher position may have reached an impossible (never achieved before) standard. The catcher positions are overflowing with .200 hitters and that's why J.T. Realmuto cost nearly the same (maybe more, maybe less) than Christian Yelich did.
  18. Riverbrian
    Is there any team in MLB currently with a surplus behind the plate?
  19. Riverbrian
    I was going to say that his cutter looks a lot like a slider. Same football grip and release.
  20. Riverbrian
    I thought he looked leak proof last year at the plate. I worry about everyone from year to year, I never pencil in players to repeat, improve or decline... but I honestly had Polanco at the bottom of my worry list. I thought he turned a corner and I was planning on a nice year.... although I was not planning on this nice of a year. And I paid a good chunk of my available auction money for him to play SS for my fantasy team... to back my conviction. More power to Polanco... Keep it up.
  21. Riverbrian
    Surrender!
  22. Riverbrian
    As soon as you think you have depth and use that as an excuse to lessen that depth... the baseball gods will teach you a lesson and lesson it further on you... leaving you no place to build it back up. There is absolutely no reason to trade Castro. Enjoy this team!
  23. Riverbrian
    Meeting rooms during staff meetings work just fine for me.
  24. Riverbrian
    (Raises Hand)
  25. Riverbrian
    When I was five... My Dad got out of the car to open the garage door and he told me to not touch the car as he was getting out. I wasn't thinking about touching the car until he told me to not touch it. Anyway... I put the car in gear and it slowly drove through the garage door before my Dad could get back into the car to stop it. I mention that just so you know that I skipped over Polanco and went straight to Harrison and Murphy.
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