Riverbrian

I'm asking for 3 but you've always been more optimistic than I. ?

2nd Paragraph... I am in agreement with you. What you are saying is something that would be easily overlooked by broadcasters, writers and fans and it probably creates a half baked narrative presented as fully cooked and swallowed whole by many. There are a lot of things like that in the world of baseball. 1st Paragraph... In the case of the Twins, I haven't logged the specific examples, I have nothing conclusive but I do have a general impression from watching almost every night that Rocco tends to utilize Duran and the perceived better bullpen arms available when facing the top the order and lesser available bullpen arms when facing the bottom of the order. So, I think you can take what you are talking about and add it to the many things that Rocco has to consider when making the bullpen decisions that he does. On Monday... It was Jax replacing Bundy to face the top of the lineup. It was Duffey replacing Jax to face the bottom of the lineup. The only place I question Rocco on Monday was in the 9th when he turned to Pagan to face hitters 2, 3 and 4 with the game tied in the 9th but that is because I'm a little Pagan spooked. Clearly the Twins still consider Pagan to be high leverage. I would have thrown Duran in the 9th while making phone calls to other teams to bolster the future pen. ?

I think the original point is a very interesting consideration and probably has a high level of correctness and I'll admit it was something that I hadn't thought of. However, that top of the order that skews the data will be the same top of the order that the starting pitcher must face after going through the order twice. So while the data may be skewed, those top of the order guys who skew the data are still holding a bat in their hands ready to skew the data some more.

I don't believe there is X number of AB's or a specific X period of time. I think its a process of pulling from the bottom when roster decisions are forced. Is the player near a chair when the music stops.

He hit the nail on the head. Other than the odd addition of "be" at the end of his sentence. ? Quality starting pitching became too scarce and too expensive. Trying to find 5 starters to put together a quality rotation was incredibly hard to do, there were not enough of them to go around, the demand far exceeded the supply. Remember the term innings eater? We don't hear it much these days but that label really wasn't as charming or flattering as we romanticize it to be. However, it was reality because teams were forcing pitchers to do what they could not do just to adhere to a traditional structure that worked in a different era. Now add to this the injuries. The frequency of pitchers getting hurt and the lengthy downtime of the average pitching injury and the traditional staff was being held together with duct tape. 5 effective starters isn't close to what was needed to get through 162 games when in reality you need 8,9 10 of them and teams were lucky to find 3 to start with. Innings eaters all over the place. The Rays solved this problem. They stopped asking pitchers to do what they couldn't do. They stopped with the inning eating mediocrity and replaced those mediocre innings with guys who were more effective throwing 2 or 3 or 4 innings and they were also less expensive. It worked... other teams noticed that it worked and it has spread like best practices do in any industry worth it's salt and it's here in Minnesota now. If you were not watching the Rays, the Dodgers and other teams implementing successfully while you were watching Terry Ryan lose traditionally, it just might be a little confusing to you. In the nutshell that Mike laid out succinctly. Mediocre pitchers are given less room for error than they used to

This sentence alone says an awful lot.

You are saying Bundy third time through the order is better than a 2nd inning out of Jax. I'll take the 2nd inning out Jax every time knowing that it won't work out every time.

What you suggest is great thinking. If Celestino is only going to be utilized against a left hander that isn't showing up. Yes... Send him to St. Paul please. However... there is no reason that Celestino can't get into the lineup against right handers from time to time. Not one OF is playing like a player that should prevent others from playing. Buxton with his power should play every day but he's not because of his injury. Plenty of playing time for Celestino.

Zavala was the 9th hitter in the White Sox lineup last night. Zavala was the last hitter that Bundy faced. (He struck him out to end the 5th Inning). That is exactly two times through the order and 18 batters. Bundy got this done in 58 pitches. Jax was on the mound to face leadoff hitter Tim Anderson to start the 6th inning. Teams usually stack the best hitters at the top of the order. Pitchers typically pitch worse third time through the order. Dylan Bundy has the worst numbers in our rotation. Jax has been our 2nd best bullpen arm. Jax didn't throw during the entire Orioles series so he was fresh. It's a high leverage situation with a slim 2 to 1 lead. You want Rocco's gut to do something different?

I've got a section in my backyard that has been over run with thistles. It took a long time to dig them out yesterday. After that I mowed the lawn. Didn't sleep well last night because my body was pretty sore. This is what tired feels like.

Let's take this math one more step. Let's say you want to hang on to the traditional closer/set up/set up model for late game high leverage situations. Those guys typically throw around 60 innings a year. So let's deduct 20 innings from the 81 you have to average from those 3. 20 x 3 = 60 You have 5 bullpen slots left (after you deduct the 3 high leverage guys) that have to absorb those 60 innings the late inning high leverage guys cough up. The 81 innings needed per 8 slots rises to 93 for the remaining 5 just to cover for your late inning high leverage guys. 60/5 = 12 + 81 = 93 When you start talking about 93 innings, you are talking about more than 1 inning thrown every two days. These guys have to throw multiple innings. This is a main reason why I openly question the practice of having a dedicated closer, saving your closer (best arm) for specific 9th innings situations and limiting him to 60 innings especially when high leverage can occur anywhere in a baseball game. Why can't your best pitcher give you two innings in the 5th and 6th of a tie game. Your best arm should throw more innings than 60 because you are asking a lesser arm to throw more innings just to allow him to do that and that makes no sense. Your best arms should throw more innings than lesser arms. Your best hitters should have more plate appearances than your lesser hitters. Anything else is hard to justify.

You just got to do the math and the need for an adjustment to the traditional model is obvious. I'm a broken record on this but it's simple math. You have to account for 1400 plus innings in a given season. Dave Goltz tossing 300 innings doesn't exist anymore. 162 games x 9 innings = 1458 6 innings per start: 162 x 6 = 972 1458-972=486 innings needed to be covered by your bullpen 5 innings per start: 162 X 5 = 810 1418-810=648 innings needed to be covered by your bullpen. I don't have the current numbers but I believe we are currently below 5 innings per start. At 648 innings we are now asking for the 8 bullpen slots to produce 81 innings a year when it used to be 60. The traditional bullpen model isn't going to work. You can't hide a bullpen arm and wait for low leverage. You don't have the roster slots to do this. It's harder to hold your best arm for the traditional closer role for specific situations such as a lead less then 3 runs in the 9th. Your best arm may need to toss a couple of innings in the 6th and 7th. I've also been a broken record on this but I hate boxes. A starter must start the game. A closer must close the game. Pitchers pitch they don't need to be stuck into traditional boxes. The Rays are singing the words of John Lennon. "Whatever gets you through the night... It's alright... It's alright". What matters is how many innings can you pitch and how many zeroes can you hang.

When I think of the 2014 and 2015 Royals bullpen. They showed the world that you could win without the starters carrying the load. You could win with a bullpen and I think that opened some lanes of thinking in front offices like the Rays have done. However I do believe the Royals bullpen had a traditional set up to it, if memory serves.

That's Fixable

You man not need to make that decision. Often times the decision is made for you with an injury. If it was today and my decision. It would reluctantly be Garlick. It would be Garlick because he has an option and he is playing less than others on the roster. Now... I don't personally believe that Garlick should be playing less but that's another subject.

There will clearly be the need to make a decision on Sano in the off-season. It doesn't look like they will pick up the option because of options inside the organization and cheaper just as productive options outside the organization. But... for the rest of this year. When he is ready to come off the 60 day. A Strotman or a Godoy will come off the 40 man to make room and Sano will return to our dugout. He will share playing time with others. Nobody will have to sit extensively to work him in and if he gets on one of his hot streaks, we will sing his praises. If he stays on a cold streak... we have others to turn to. I am looking forward to his return.

That's the beauty of his line. @jorgenswest If he is serious... I agree with him. If he was joking... It was very funny.

I typically have a cup of coffee in the morning. I've done this for decades. To be honest, I don't really have a loyalty to any brand and if I'm really honest... I can't tell the difference between Folgers and Maxwell House so I just buy whatever is on special and that becomes my brand for the next 24 days. I decided to do a taste test. I bought two brands (Tim Horton's and Folgers) and made a cup of each and tried both side by side. After the taste test, I can tell you without question that I prefer a Twins Walk Off to the Twins getting walked off. Still not sure on the coffee, maybe the Tim Hortons. Maybe.

So he timed his implosion well.

Lots of our brothers and sisters on TD watch the Twins pretty much exclusively. The Twins for decades tried to operate in the traditional sense. Goltz, Thormodsgard, Zahn and Redfern. Viola, Smithson, Butcher, Schrom with Ron Davis blowing saves after being set up by Lysander is what they know. Santana, Gibson, Pelfrey, Hughes and Milone with Fein and May for the 7th and 8th and Perkins to close is what they watch year after year. What the other teams are doing isn't in view.

I thought he was under 5 years with an option left?

Yes absolutely. The Rays adapt to the staff. Just because they were successful with the opener concept doesn't mean they would walk away from a starter that can throw more innings. Archer is being managed because of injury recovery and future injury concerns according to what I've heard. The youngsters are coming off a covid year which is going to take some time to build back up their innings. The Twins are managing the staff they have as well.

Lots of our brothers and sisters on TD watch the Twins pretty much exclusively. The Twins for decades tried to operate in the traditional sense. Goltz, Thormodsgard, Zahn and Redfern. Viola, Smithson, Butcher, Schrom with Ron Davis blowing saves after being set up by Lysander is what they know. Santana, Gibson, Pelfrey, Hughes and Milone with Fein and May for the 7th and 8th and Perkins to close is what they watch year after year. What the other teams are doing isn't in view.

Agreed We've seen them use Duran for multiple innings but not so much with Jax thus far. I do wonder why. A couple of thoughts. Starting pitching injuries have probably reduced the pile of multi-inning bullpen options. We started with 8 (including Duran) on the roster who have started in the past and still ended up with Chi-Chi starting a couple of games. The games are really stacked up this year because of the work stoppage. Not as many off-days so that is going to mess with whatever resting is required of the pen.