Riverbrian

On a scale of 1 to 10. That's 10 funny. Sadly... quite possibly true... but sadly funny.

I contend that injuries could be the most viable path to improving this team. Yeah... I know... it absolutely may not but at this point... it can't be discounted as a way to improve.

I'm not as worried about the bullpen. Yes... it can be improved and I hope it is improved some way some how. It's the offense that has my full concern and it's the offense that is going to almost demand perfection out of the bullpen because they are not creating moments for the bullpen to breath easy for a game or two.

Great Post. I'll throw a couple more additions to my novel. Teams can hold players rights until well past their prime: Kyle Farmer will reach free agency in 2025. He will be 34 years of age when he finally gets a chance to choose who he plays for and at age 34 he won't have that many choices. Kyle had no choice in this matter. He was drafted by a deep Dodger team who operated under the terms of the CBA. The margins are incredibly thin: Miranda, Steer, Strand who do you choose? The Twins chose Miranda, Steer and Strand were traded to the Reds. Steer was drafted out of college in 2019... a 40 man decision would have needed to be made on him at the conclusion of last year. Was there room for Steer on the Twins 40 man roster? How much better or how much worse was Steer then the guys that the Twins selected for the 40 man spot. Probably not much difference at all but the Twins were getting crowded so Steer was probably an easy guy to include in the trade because keeping Steer on the 40 man will cost themselves someone else that they liked. There are only so many 40 man spots. Strand was drafted out of college in 2021. He was probably the hard one to include in the deal because he didn't require a roster spot. The Reds won't have to make a decision on him until after the 2024 season. He is tearing the cover off the ball in the minors. The Reds don't have to call him up... because they can use this time to take a look at Steer and others. Calling him up early... will cost them a player so they will probably take time with him even if he is hurting the baseball over and over again. Players... many we never thought of or heard of... are pretty good players and have the potential to be pretty good major league players yet they still get bounced out of the systems of all 30 teams because of roster space decisions. Lack of opportunity kills them. The only conclusion that I have come up with is this: 26 man roster spots are GOLD! When you decide to hang on to Pagan and let him struggle... there is a bigger consequence than just absorbing his poor performance. Somewhere down the line, like falling dominos... someone that could have gotten opportunity instead is gone. All teams... not just the Twins make mistakes on these types of decisions all the time. You can't screw around with the 26 man roster, you can't waste a spot on a Billy Hamilton type player, You need a team full of players competing for playing time. You need 26 players on the 26 man who can play. You can't let a Logan Morrison just waste a spot with crappy performance and everyday playing time day in and day out. You should never let a Andrealton Simmons or Logan Forsythe play every day on a losing team when they will not be in uniform next year. You should never sign a Matt Belisle during a losing season at the expense of a Nick Anderson. Honest competition is the only way to minimize mistakes that are sure to be made because the margins are thin. The decisions are hard. If you let bad play clog up the system, the bottle neck is much worse than it already is by the terms of the CBA. You will spill potentially better players down the line. You may not know who those spilled players are...but they are spilling. Constantly search for better... even if it's improving from a .560 OPS to a .690 OPS and never assume that you know... who is better.

Maybe but I think they are making the same mistake that nearly every team makes. I've spent a lot of time looking at all 30 teams and how they go about the process and it is indeed a process with a very hard hard hard filter that is very difficult for a young player to squeeze through. As for the development time that you reference... IMO... the biggest culprit is the agreed upon rules between the players and owners in the CBA. The rules set forth in the CBA basically make it irresponsible to rush a player through the system. The system in place demands that a young player has to be significantly better than a veteran player just to earn a MLB job, the system can reward mediocrity and it can impede development. After a player is drafted: Teams have 4 years to make a decision on college players, 5 years with high school players before they must be placed on the 40 man roster or exposed to the rule 5 draft. For a college player drafted at age 22... they can be looked at until they are 26. After a player is placed on the 40 man roster... they are assigned 3 minor league options before they must be assigned to the 26 man roster or be exposed to other teams this gives teams 3 years to send them up and down without consequence. For that college player who is drafted at age 22... now they are 29 years old. Once their options are gone, they have to be placed on outright waivers to be taken off the 26 man roster and this gives other teams the chance to claim them. Using Kyle Farmer for example. He was drafted at age 22 out of the University of Georgia by the Dodgers in the 8th round. The Dodgers used all 4 years allowed by the CBA to determine if they wanted to protect him. They wanted to protect him and stashed him in the minors, calling him up and down until they traded him to the Reds. Welcome to the majors Kyle Farmer the 28 year old Rookie who is actually pretty good but hiding deep in a deep Dodger system waiting for his chance. The Dodgers followed the rules... there was nothing that Kyle Farmer could do about it. And we have Twins fans wondering who is this guy at age 32? You gotta cheer for a guy like Kyle... He practically took the full brunt of the process and came out the other side. The funny thing about Farmer... he's 32... he still has an option remaining and under 5 years of service time. We could send Kyle Farmer down without consequence. Let's look at Nick Gordon... Nick was drafted out of high school at age 18. He did his 5 years and he has used his 3 minor league options. He has gone through this entire process. He is now 27 years old and he is out of options so he can't be sent down or the Twins could lose him for nothing to any team that would like to claim him so he is allowed to struggle and hopefully work out his problems. This is an important point because I'll contend that there are (I'm making up a number) 15 players in the Twins minor leagues that would be able to produce better numbers at the MLB level than what Nick has with us this season. Nick is protected from consequence for the time being. On the other hand... Jose Miranda still has options remaining so he is sent down because the club can send him down even though he isn't struggling as bad as Nick Gordon. Let's look at someone like Yunior Severino. He's really hitting the ball down in AA. Why can't the Twins take a look at Yunior while he's hot. First he needs a 40 man spot. Anybody taken off the 40 man roster is exposed to other teams. Ok... you found a 40 man spot... Who do you take off the 26 man roster. Do you release a Gordon just to see if Yunior is going to be OK in the majors? Nope... Do you send a player down that is more advanced through the system. The end result for Yunior is this... he can get as hot as he wants, he's not getting a roster spot unless there is a cannonball of injuries. He will spend his 5 years in the system and this is his 5th year. The Twins will have to decide if Yunior gets a 40 man spot after this season. It's looking like a yes if he keeps hitting like he is. In a nutshell. The CBA is the reason why it takes a long time for players to... umm... develop. Believe me... if players were exposed to the majors at age 23 instead of 26... They'd have it figured out at age 25 instead of age 28. The CBA is the reason why entry into the major league is a hard hard system to filter through. The CBA has created a system that rewards mediocrity from vets and slows down the development process. The CBA punishes a team that rush players through the system because that organization will have to pay younger players at the arbitration table quicker and eventually pay them or lose them to free agency at a younger prime age. The CBA will also punish the aggressive team because they won't have the necessary depth stashed away in AAA should the need occur and the need will occur. Kirilloff has used his last option this year. He can't be sent down next year. This is his year to be healthy and claim a job... This is his year to face lefties/righties the whole kit and kaboodle.

Kirilloff Career MLB Splits: VS LHP 100 PA 4 HR .250 BA .728 OPS VS RHP 330 PA 10 HR ..263 BA .734 OPS Is there anything in his minor league stats that strongly suggests that he needs to be protected from lefties?

I think development goes way beyond the draft. If the previous regime drafted Kirilloff and they did... does the previous regime get the credit for drafting Alex or does the current regime get the credit since they were responsible for his development since being drafted. To give the credit to the previous regime for simply drafting the player... it kinda suggests that the player is fated to become what he is going to become. Might as well let all the coaches go if that is the case because all you have to do is nail the draft and the player is going to be what he is going to be. The Dodgers always draft late but they develop a lot of incredible prospects. Drafting late doesn't seem to kill their farm system. Bobby Miller is hitting the stage tonight I believe. Did they draft well or develop well. Probably both but I would put more credence... a lot more on the development side.

Here are two questions for the stat heads out in the gallery. I don't know the answer so I'll take reasonable guesses. All baseball teams employ lots of analysts. I assume that they are not repeating work so there should be a lot of different data points to consume. The goal of all this data is improved product on the field. With all this assumed data. 1. Why does the Left/Right Splits appear to be the only thing visible to us with the naked eye as far as lineup alteration from game to game? There has to be data gathered that suggests Byron Buxton doesn't hit this type of pitcher for example. 2. Why don't we see more batting order fluctuation based on other data such as Byron Buxton doesn't hit this type of pitcher well so for this matchup... Buxton moves down in the order. Back to question #1... Why do splits appear to trump all other data points because I assume that there are other data points? Lots of them... because there are a lot of analysts in the modern game to gather a lot of different data points? .

We have a lot of role players in that sense. If you want to grow tomatoes... plant tomatoes... don't plant carrots. If you want to grow a role player. Plant a role player. Julien will be a role player if the Twins plant him as one. It is all he will be allowed to be by an organization that has predetermined his fate. Do I trust the front office to determine who is a significant player in the future and who is a future role player. I want to be clear... I do not. They shouldn't trust themselves either because it's too hard to do and the margins are too thin. If the front office is going to purposely limit potential because they have predetermined his worth and stop his potential on purpose. I want a new front office as soon as reasonably possible. Thankfully, I do not think they feel this way about Julien.

I'm glad they are communicating with the players. I'm glad they have a game plan. You are correct... the plan isn't working and plans often don't and are then in need of adjustment. Last night's utilization was more of the same on steroids.

This is a good point. If playing the platoon splits is the only card that he knows to play and assuming he doesn't know who will pitch the 2nd. Brebbia is the only pitcher that he knows where he will pitch. Lead off with your three left handers as you suggest. This probably forces Kapler to throw Beck in the 2nd instead of Manaea and he will get a string of right handers but why are we worried about Beck.... just like why are we worried about Manaea. Later in the game... it forces Kapler to throw a left hander against the trio of lefties at the top... Rogers or Alexander are available for use but they probably don't throw Manaea because it's just 3 lefties and Beck was his chosen bulk guy). Garlick and Solono are still available to pinch hit later in the game when he turns to Taylor Rogers or Alexander. When he pinch hits as early in the game. He has spent those moves... Kapler can now manage the game free and clear with the matchups that he wants. It was a bad move... but ultimately you are right. The team overall hitting was awful and there isn't much a manager can do about that. The only idea that I have to get this team hitting better... is to give Kirilloff and Julien a chance to see if they can do better and it shouldn't be a high bar to clear. Kirilloff just took the lefty Moore deep on Sunday. He's been our best hitter since he hit the roster. So... Nope... the platoon splits trump everything.

I have participated in a lot of discussion lately (and in the past) that can leave the impression that I'm anti-platoon. To be clear - I'm not anti-platoon. I am anti-strict adherence to the platoon. To be clear - This team has platooned it's way to a bad offense. It's not the platoon's fault that the offense is bad. The offense is bad because the players are playing bad. A platoon hitter isn't going to make this offense better. We need HITTERS... the kind of hitter that we are not going to pinch hit and Rocco let everyone know last night that the hitters that we need will not be Kirilloff or Julien so we can adjust our expectations now and move on from this pair. As far as I'm concerned in regards to our use of the platoon... Last night was a bridge too far. Our young clean up hitter was pulled before he swung a bat in reaction to a 7.81 ERA left hander taking the mound after the opener. He set the lineup to left handed based on one inning of a right handed opener and then re-set the lineup to right handed in the 2nd inning based on a left handed 7.81 ERA pitcher entering the game. The blind adherence to platooning just got cartoonish. We don't need MORE platoon hitters. We need HITTERS! We need hitters who can hit both hands, we need hitters that nobody is going to pinch hit for. If a player needs to be platooned... he is not the type of hitter we need. We got enough of those guys and they are failing at the moment. Did we call Kirilloff up to be a platoon hitter or are we hoping that he is better than that? Are we developing Kirilloff to be a platoon hitter or are we hoping that he is better than that? We have Kirilloff for the next 5 years before he hits free agency. Are we going to develop a platoon hitter for the next 5 years? I guess so. That is exactly what they are doing. Kirilloff didn't start against left-handers on Friday and Saturday so he obviously isn't good enough to face them in the eyes of the front office and he won't be good enough to face them in the future due to not being allowed to face them. I have been hopeful that Kirilloff develops into a plus plus hitter. It won't happen. The Twins are going to minimize his development to be nothing more than a strong side platoon that will need to be pinch hit for when Josh Hader enters the game. Or worse... when Sean Manaea enters the game. Will Kirilloff have bad career splits when we look at his numbers 3 years from now.? Yes he will. The Twins are going to make sure that he does via usage. Julien? Future platoon hitter? Yep... future platoon hitter. He can't even face a 7.81 ERA left-hander. We don't need more platoon hitters. WE NEED HITTERS! It won't be Kirilloff or Julien. We can cast our eyes down the road.

A simple usage chart would have pretty much laid out who was available to pitch last night. And... And... If they were fooled by a 30 pitch bullpen session. I'll add these considerations: A: Manaea threw a bullpen session and his ERA is 7.81. How long do you think Manaea was going to pitch? B. His ERA was 7.81 going into the game. That's the ERA you are setting your lineup for?

You are correct -- 10 baserunners total in the game. 4 hits, 4 walks and 2 hit by pitch. Solano with a single and two walks - Garlick with a walk and a home run AGAINST A RIGHT HANDER that Rocco never would have allowed to happen if he didn't paint himself into a corner by the third inning. Jeffers got plunked by a pitch as a pinch hitter for Gallo in the 9th. That is 6 out of 10 base runners in the game. The rest of the lineup managed: Castro 1 Single - 1 Double Vasquez 1 BB Buxton 1 HBP I'll add that the ERA's (prior to the game) that befuddled our offense were: 1 Inning - Brebbia - 4.26 (RHP) 3.1 Inning - Manaea - 7.81 (LHP) 2.2 Inning - Beck - 5.71 (RHP) 0.2 Innings - Tyler Rogers - 2.22 (RHP) (He's been good) 1 Inning - Alexander - 4.67 (LHP) And I'll echo what plenty have said - 16 strikeouts. Now that we got that out of the way. 😉 It was a stupid move.

Tonight he was

That's OK... As long as there was a meeting before hand asking Rocco how he got beat by the opener strategy especially when he came from the Rays organization that invented it... followed by telling him to never do that again. Update -- Kyle Garlick... the guy that they won't play against right handers but now has to face a right hander because of this early move... Hits a home run against a right hander. Which is something that Rocco would have never allowed to happen so Rocco gets it right by getting it wrong. How can anyone not love the game of baseball?

Hey Edouard, You are betting clean up tonight. Psych!

The Twins are currently down 4-0. The top of the 4th is just getting started. The Giants used on opener in the 1st inning with right handed John Brebbia. Left handed Sean Manaea entered the game in the 2nd inning. After a 1-2-3 first inning. Rocco reacted to this by pinch hitting Solano for Julien before he even swung a bat in the cleanup spot and then later in the 3rd inning. Kyle Garlick pinch hit for Alex Kirilloff. Here's a note for opposing managers. Start an opposite hand opener and Rocco will over react early. I understand why he did it. He shouldn't have done it. Yeah Manaea splits are worse against Right Handed Hitters but let's face it... Manaea has an ERA of 7.81 this season... so how many innings did you think Manaea would throw? Did you just fall for Gabe Kapler saying "Hey Look Your Shoes Untied" because I'll bet a Right Hander is in the game before the 6th and you've... well... whatever. I hope he wasn't expecting Junis in the 2nd because he just threw yesterday. Where did he think Kapler was going after the opener? Rocco has just wrapped up the Over Managing Manager of the Year Award. Nobody else will top it. He can start writing his acceptance speech immediately after the game. I've been on his side... He may have lost me tonight.

The game inside the game. Pitchers want to throw the ball where it's difficult to drive the ball. Batters want pitchers to throw the ball where the ball can be driven. If you swing at pitches that the pitchers want you to swing at... You will turns balls into strikes and get behind in the count, you will foul off pitches, you will pop out, you will roll over into tailor made grounders and you will strike out. That's the game inside the game. Our struggles with the bases loaded are the same as the offensive struggles that we have no matter how many are on base. This team hasn't been very good from top to bottom when it comes to forcing pitches to work inside the zone. If they can get better at this... the numbers will go up significantly. If they can't... we got to get some new guys.

Farmer: 2096 PA's in the minors in a loaded Dodger system. .294 BA .789 OPS 1417 PA's in the Majors primarily with the Reds after the Dodgers traded him .258 BA .711 OPS The majority of his major league AB's came in the last two seasons (1,112 AB's) with the Reds at age 30 and 31 and his performance in those two seasons was average to slightly better than average. I'll take average right now to replace the below average and while continuing to look for above average.

I wish I could be as confident in these future assessments as you are. When if comes to Farmer and his track record. I would say... What track record? Can't really have a track record if you are not allowed on the track. The majority of Farmer type players become what you say because they are watching others get a track record. But... regardless if they revert back to a pumpkin in the future. I'll take the momentary production. It's better that watching those players put together an actual poor track record.

It's probably because you are writing letters. The U.S. Postal Service is probably delivering those letters to the parking garage next door.

Kyle Farmer didn't get any decent playing time until he was 30 years old. What they are at age 24 and 25 doesn't have to be a permanent affliction. It can become permanent if his controlling team makes it permanent by refusing opportunity to turn the page. 😉

I think the front office should listen to me and me only. 😎 On Lewis... If he keeps hitting like he is. Straight up to the majors. SS,3B,2B,OF... He can play in any of those 6 positions as far as I'm concerned. When June 1st hits, we will have a better idea on where he should play at that time. We need hitters. Static position or finding playing time at multiple positions are OK with me.

He's a switch hitter and he's been on the roster since opening day. He got into a couple of games back to back this week against the Dodgers and then injuries got him 3 more games for 5 in a row and he did good during that stretch. I have no idea if he is going to take this stretch and run with it or if he is going to revert back. There is only one way to find out what he will do. The only thing that I know for sure is that we don't have anyone on the team that has taken a stretch and ran with it and we have given some long long long stretches to players that did very little with it while Castro mostly watched. My problem with Castro has always been this: The Twins were not turning to him to help when they needed help. Castro has no value if he can't get playing time with a team full of players hitting .210. This is his moment... It's overdue and I hope he is in the lineup tonight for 6 in a row. Let's see what he can do, that way we can let the players decide.