LaBombo

Depending on how much you want Saunders next year, there's maybe a silver lining here for you if Saunders' (team) option year doesn't pan out: "According to many reports, Saunders had been seeking a three-year deal, but pitching at Safeco may be the next best thing. The Baltimore Sun's Eduardo A. Encina wrote that pitching at Safeco "sets him up well for a good season before heading back into free agency." If Saunders plans to go to a franchise next year that doesn't understand park effect, then I think the Twins stand an excellent chance to be near the top of a very short list.

Here is the source for the Felix deal: Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners agree to $135.5 million contract extension, according to sources - ESPN They're a going concern on the east coast, and while hardly infallible, they're right at least often enough to keep paying the ConEd bill. Here's the link to the blogger in his footie pajamas you appear to imagine I'm citing regarding Saunders: Lefty Joe Saunders to sign a one-year deal with Mariners USA Today. It's obviously not completely solid without the story on the option, but it is a team source the reporter cites. Posting this more for the other folks on the thread, since you seem generally undaunted by pieces that don't fit your puzzle.

Eisenreich was a great story. Appeared to be done as a ballplayer due to Tourette Syndrome, but came back with the Royals after missing two seasons. Started improving at an age where most guys start to decline, hit his peak in his mid-30's, and retired with a career that would be the envy of most guys who peaked in their late 20's. First recipient of the Tony Conigliaro Award for overcoming a major obstacle to play baseball. But since that all happened after Eisenreich left the Twins, my favorite # 4 memory is still "Molitor for three!", Johnny G's call of Mollie's 3000th hit, the first guy to triple for 3k.

That's at least a little bit like saying 'It's no big deal to drive in 120 runs if 50 of those are the hitter driving himself in with homers'. And when Mauer had those batting averages you mentioned, he posted OBP's of .429 and .444. Those are ridiculously high for an offense-first position, let alone catcher.

There's one source reporting the deal is a one year contract in the $5-7 million range, with an "option year", but no report of whose option or if there's a significant buyout if the team has the option. At any rate, it's safe to assume that Seattle gave Saunders the impression they have money and aspirations, since they extended Felix for 5 years to the tune of $135 million within hours of signing JoeJoe.

Middle infielders seem to get hurt more often than other position players, so another live body couldn't hurt, at least in ST.. Carroll will be 39 in 10 days, Dozier struggled, and Flori/esco don't have enough talent combined to make one decent infielder. Whether you address it with Brignac or not, I'd say there's a depth issue there.

It's all good. We're already set, with Correia, Pelfrey, and Co. We have it on good authority from Twins brain wizards so powerful that even their vaguest impressions and wildest guesses are more accurate than mountains of empirical evidence. The bald guy said that, so it must be true.

Who's the more likely candidate for serious regression, the 30 year old Cabrera whose 2012 WAR was lower than his 2011 total, or the 34 year Willi whose 2012 WAR was double his 2011 output? And while the Twins will replace their third-best hitter with either a journeyman or a double A kid, the Tigers replaced the worst outfielder in baseball with one of the best, and will probably get a strong bounceback season from Avila. And a Verlander-less Tigers rotation would still feature 4 guys who would very likely be the ace of yet another dreadful Twins staff. Diamond and Porcello have nearly equal James ERA projections. Diamond is the Twins ersatz ace, while the Tigers shopped Porcello, who is now their 6th best starter. Also, when you say that the Royals added a "pretty good starter", I'm assuming you're referring to Shields, who's posted a top-20 WAR among all MLB starters the past two seasons. But they also added Ervin Santana and Jeremy Guthrie, who both pitched well in 2010 and '11 before derailing last year. Their 2013 James ERA projections are 4.04 and 4.20 respectively. How many Twins starters do you expect to beat or even equal that while backed by a Span-less, Revere-less outfield? I'll be pulling for them, but they're probably going to be lousy again this year.

Our recollection is actually very similar, it's just that I was making a slightly different point. Gagne's defensive rep varied somewhat, but basically I remember it like this: Average range that grew, either in practice or just by reputation, to above average. Excellent hands and positional awareness, and one of the best shortstop arms in either league. While admittedly limited as a stat, Gagne's Range Factor per 9 innings history exactly mirrors the perceived mid-career increase to significantly above league-average range, for what it's worth. Fielding runs above average shows his defense was about 7 or 8 runs better per season than the rest of the league on average. And despite his hacktastic approach at the plate, he managed about 2.5 to 3 wins above replacement per season throughout his prime. My point was that because Gagne played in the era of Ripken, Ozzie, and Barry Larkin, "above average" looked fairly pedestrian by comparision. To lend a little more historical context, there are only 12 modern-era shortstops elected by the BBWA to the Hall of Fame. That's almost exactly one per decade. Gagne played almost his entire career with 3 of those 12 guys in the league and in their primes. It set the shortstop bar for Gagne's era ridiculously high, and made it harder to appreciate how good he was despite being nowhere near the players they were. Interesting note on the physical similarity. Haven't seen Dozier in person, but my impression was that he is stockier than the whippet-lean Gagne. May have something to do with today's uniforms. Gagne was probably a better athlete with just a bit more power and speed, plus a much better arm. But I'm hoping Dozier regains his minor-league batting form and end up with the better eye at the plate, and that would go a long way toward closing the gap in their values.

Awesome. And fitting, since Oppie was investigated by his own country and accused of being a subversive or even a traitor as he labored to give them the single largest military technology advantage since the invention of the firearm. Think Gleeman would be up to the intern role? Ryan's opening line of the press conference: "One and two thirds innings pitched, 8 earned runs and two home runs allowed. May 20, 2012 is a date which will live in infamy."

Or whether or not they have an ugly girlfriend. By their own inadvertent admission, the Twins are looking more and more like the Moneyball parody of the cro-magnon scouts volleying cliches back and forth. Still hoping it's a smokescreen, and a brilliant disguise for the Twins' secret Manhattan Project-like effort to revolutionize sabermetrics. But since Doogie Wolfson mused in a podcast with Gleeman that a Twins official admitted to him that he didn't like Edwin Jackson because of what he saw when scouting Jackson pitching in high school, I'm less hopeful than ever.

Unbelievable. One year deal, chump change, at least an outside chance for a bounceback season, and a leftie who could platoon with Dozier (.500 slugging pct. vs. lefties last year) if Dozier can't handle shortstop. Wouldn't want to block incoming titans like Escobar and Florimon, I guess.

I had avoided comparing Dozier to Gagne because I'm not sure his defensive ceiling at short will approach what I remember Gagne's ability being, which was maybe just shy of Gold Glove, but very good. He had the disadvantage of his entire career overlapping that of HOF'ers Cal Ripken and Ozzie Smith. Gagne was an above average player, but because he didn't hit 25 dingers a year or perform two cartwheels and a triple Lutz before every throw to first, he was never really given his due. And you're exactly right, quality regulars like Gagne are every bit the building block of champions that star players are. So defense aside, here's Dozier's James projection again next to Gagne's career average: BD: .253/.300/.372 GG: .254/.302/.382 And since it doesn't seem like Dozier shares Gagne's frustrating propensity to chase bad pitches all the way into the stands if necessary to get a bad swing at them, I think 'Dozie' stands to regain some of his 10% or so walk rate from the minors and maybe boost his OBP 10 or even 20 points. That, combined with average or slightly better D at short, would add up to a fine ballplayer, and ease much of the pain of the decade-long revolving door at shortstop. Fingers crossed.

Ideally I'd like to see them use 11, like most good teams. But unless the rotation exceeds most people's expectations, it will take 12 or 13 just to keep from burning out the bullpen. Like I said, I'm not commenting on the merits of Lara as a rule 5 pick, I'm just saying that an organization that is in rebuild mode shouldn't be scared to death of losing a backup catcher who happens to be one of the worst hitters in the history of baseball, as opposed to using the spot on someone who might actually turn into a ballplayer.

Whatever you think of Braulio Lara's potential, Butera is another great example of wasting a roster spot on a guy who is basically a dime a dozen.

The good news is that Span is an excellent example of a player who seemed to have hit a low ceiling after several years in the minors, and then suddenly turned into a quality major leaguer. The bad news is that when most people think of that kind of player, they're going to think of Span because of how rare an occurrence that is. But Span is probably an encouraging comp in one way, which is that he had about the same number of plate appearances in the minors as Dozier does when Denard finally saw the light. Dozier is older than Span was because of playing college ball, but the experience levels are similar. The James projection for Dozier in the majors in 2013 is roughly .250/.300/.370. If he can really manage that and play a passable short and second, he'll be an affordable utility guy for several years. If he can add a tick of power or OBP to that and play a little above average d at short by working on smart guy things like positioning, he'll be a poor man's Jason Bartlett minus the freakish season. If he hits a little worse and plays ok at second, he's Steve Lombardozzi senior, a guy who won't kill you but who never lets you stop thinking about how to replace him. Either way, he seems like a sharp kid, and I'll be pulling for him to have a major league career of some stripe.

Yup. Gant was out because he didn't slide. Coble explains it at the end of this for the physics-challenged people who don't understand that Gant was falling on his own after running into Hrbek and that Hrbek has every right to apply the tag as Gant gets himself out with a dumb play. My favorite memory of Hrbek is the fact that he played the rest of the World Series despite the fact that he received multiple death threats after that game, including one helpfully phoned in to his mom's house. Stay classy, Atlanta!

Said another Twins PR enforcer. Sarcasm? Really? Anyway, thanks for suggesting a home remedy for stupid that I don't need. On another note, thanks a bunch for helping me prove a point I wasn't trying to make, but absolutely should be: "Suddenly? Where have you been? " That's someone else who didn't get the Woody Allen-esque subtlety of birdwatchher's "sarcasm". But North is a card-carrying member of the Twins Faithful, so maybe his whiff on birdman's stealthy comic genius is ok.

You're on the short list of the most hysterical FO apologists on the board, but this is beneath even you. No, not the implied defense of one of the worst hitters in the history of major league baseball. That kind of thing is par for the course here. But the outrage that people are "suddenly" "bashing" a player who has been criticized for YEARS here and every where else but the Twins' PR unicorn stable for his almost magical ability to make baseballs miss his bat..., that's not... sane. The thing is, it isn't 'sudden', and if you're historically awful at what you do, criticism of you isn't "bashing", it's a plea for a major upgrade to mediocrity. Money para-quote: 'Drew Butera? You gotta problem with Drew Butera?' A ray of hope. At least you're inadvertently channeling someone who can handle a bat: http://cdn-static.denofgeek.com/sites/denofgeek/files/styles/insert_main_wide_image/public/untouchables.jpg

If I had a choice between calling 911 to get EMS help for either the person who posted this or the guy in a bathrobe wandering around my mostly-ok neighborhood sniffing garbage cans and occasionally clenching his fists together and screaming "Khaaaaaan!!!", you would have heard sirens before I read the 4th sentence.

That sounds like a good plan for next year, and a very good baseline for a generic 'Joe's early 30's' ratio. But since they're very likely going nowhere in 2013, it might be good for JM to catch somewhere around 85 games. Less wear and tear, more games to keep Doumit sharp behind the plate to enhance possible deadline value, and more chances to either expose Butera as an utter fraud of a major leaguer or showcase him for a GM with an all-glove/no-bat fetish.

Actually, it's 5 years past the age where hitters typically begin a modest decline, and a year past the age where most players begin to decline at a sharper rate. On the other hand, some players do age very well, and a few even become better players in their 30's than they were in their 20's. When he came to the Twins in 1991, Chili Davis was a poor defensive outfielder who didn't hit for a high average, but he could draw walks and hit for power. At age 30, after 9 season, Chili had managed an OPS+ season over 140 just once, and none in the 6 years prior to coming here. Yet starting at age 31, Davis would post OPS+'s over 140 three times, and two more seasons of at least 130 before retiring at age 39. Even his final season's OPS of 108 was in line with the production he had managed in his late 20's. Chili isn't a great comp for Willi, but he's not bad one, either. If JW ages well and posts a pair of OPS+'s in the 120's to go with the 140 he put up in 2012 and play tolerable defense in a corner OF spot, the Twins will have gotten a bargain. And that should be true whether they keep him or move him for the worthwhile sort of prospect that kind of bargain player should bring in trade.

If it makes it easier for you to stomach the Twins' offseason in free agency to believe that players are giving up millions to avoid a half dozen April games that might be 5 degrees cool than Detroit or Chicago or other northern cities, go for it. By the way, how much of a premium are teams like Texas paying to have free agents come to play in 2+ months of hellish heat, as opposed to a handful of cold games?

Yes. Was about to put up a link and that quote earlier. The open and implied disdain for the Twins' free agency offseason seem to grow every week.

Probably for the same reason we have so much trouble attracting Fortune 1000 and Forbes 100 companies....