LaBombo

So they rush Hicks to the majors to appease impatient fans and generate a minuscule increase in attendance, and then they flip those same fans off twice a week by trotting out a poster child for the Bill Smith Apocalypse? interesting marketing strategy. While they're at it, how about a Carlos Gomez or JJ Hardy bobble head giveaway? Dollar Lemon Juice on Paper Cut Night? How about Get Hit by a Line Drive Right on the Shin Day?

Why would the Twins let any player with an ounce of prospect mojo stagnate or regress in a 25 AB per month utility role? And if 'wasting' 150 bench AB's on CC is negligent because they could be used on a prospect, what would that make 537 PA's spent on a 38 year old utility infielder in a lost season? ideally the last spot would have gone to a Bucky Buchanan-ish AAA guy a bit younger than CC, blocked from the majors or labelled quad A by another franchise. But apparently those are as impossible to come by as backup catchers who can Obp their weight.

What if it had something to do with Guzman being really bad at hitting? In 2002, the Twins managed a stable, if unconventional, top of the order. Jacque led off almost every game, with a respectable .346 OBP and 25(!) home runs. Guzman batted over 600 times in the 2 spot, posting an abysmal .292 OBP there. Mientkiewicz settled into the third spot and took most of his plate appearances there, posting an exceptional OBP. As alluded to by Willi and others, that's where Mr. Run Expectancy Matrix enters the picture. Guzman batted in front of Minky pretty often. And Guzie made an out reeeally often. So that means that, as far as scoring a run himself, Minkie was bucking casino odds quite a bit thanks to Guz. Really. Check it out. Flash Guzman made a ton of outs. Flash Guzman usually batted in front of Minkie. A ton of outs in front of Minkie made it hard for him to score runs. Really. In other words, as much as it might seem like sabr snobs are not getting your obvious point, consider the fact that Minkie 2002 often came to the plate with a below-average or less chance to score a run mostly because he was batting behing a speedy, incompetent hitter named Christian Guzman. If that's not enough, there's the tidal wave of generic statistical evidence that isoloated speed is insignificant compared to OBP/OPS/wWhatever/etc. Of course speed matters, all things being equal. But other things are seldom equal, and they almost all matter more. Also, Guzman was a middle infielder who often batted at the top of the Twins order despite a bad OBP, and it's a huge joke to you that someone could dare to question Gardy's alleged(?) tendency to bat an OBP-unqualified MI there. So if you couldn't explain Guzman's presence there with "speed", you'd have a lot to answer for, wouldn't you, doctor? Not a trial, and you've raised some valid and interesting points about statistical vacuums in a game (or at least a chunk of its fan base) that abhors them. Well done.

Agreed. His .389 babip masked a declining walk rate and increasing K rate. But if he clocks in somewhere around his 2011 season (.260/.333/.430) and plays above average defense, he's still a big upgrade over the dreadful Boesch. Good pick for a dark horse, and yet he was widely rumored to have been shopped at the meetings and may still end up in the bullpen with Smyly and his #3 starter stuff landing the 5th spot. That's how deep they are. People apparently forget what a monster Cabrera was before the Crown. He's only 30, and most projections don't show him losing more than about 25 points of OPS. By comparison, everybody is projecting Willingham's to drop by about 50. Agree about Fielder, though. More impressed with him as the season wore on. So I'll take the over, but doubt they'll get close to 100 wins unless they add a very solid reliever. Which I think is about a 50/50 proposition.

http://th02.deviantart.net/fs26/PRE/f/2008/041/d/0/My_Prediction__Pain_background_by_kingofank.jpg

Thanks. After reading that I'm curled up in the fetal position under my desk, reliving the guilt of getting that little bird incinerated by the dragon. Anyway, Gibson couldn't control the fastball, so they didn't have much choice. As for his age, if he's good enough to really make a difference when he gets here, he'll still probably be fairly good when he's 32.

Scarey. Had (and still have) high hopes for him as a prospect, but yeah, keep the young man alive. If he gets to pitch again, for any franchise, then bonus.

He's in a different hospital now and awaiting "rib resection surgery".

The hardest thing for me to figure out about this is why it's taken so long to hear a pitcher reference the difference. Weird. It's not April 1st today, is it?

Sure. They lost Span and Revere, and there's a chance that neither Hicks or Mastro will measure up immediately as offensive replacements. Willingham is 34 and a candidate for some regression from his career year. Doumit will be 32 and is coming off a career high for PA's, so a tad less production in 2013 seems plausible. Carroll is 113 in middle infielder years. The rest of the middle infielders might be better than last year, but by how much?

Really? It would seem like the pitchers who really matter when evaluating hitters in spring training would be working on the control of off-speed offerings and ensuring that the arm angle and release match the fastball as closely as possible. But maybe you're right, that a crucial phase of the game magically disappears in an otherwise really meaningful set of exhibition games. Does that make a bunch more sense than the possibility that a kid who has been christened the default opening day center fielder by a borderline-negligent organization, and by much of the media and fan base as Torii Hunter and Kirby Puckett's love child, would be, I dunno, maybe pressing a bit, overly aggressive even? Yeah, silly me.

Thankfully, his name was never Twinkified down to 'Beckie'.

Totally agree. Just thought it was interesting to see that the staff is pre-exonerated for... whatever this turns out to be. At this point I'm much more interested in seeing the Twins field players worth keeping healthy than I am in the Chicago Hope theatrics of the people who are supposed to keep them healthy.

It seems to me like there's an old story that Mark Twain once comforted a friend who was nervous about giving a speech by telling him something like "Don't worry, they're probably not expecting much." And that's pretty much where I am with the Twins trainers and medical people. All they have to do is make it through the season without performing an unnecessary amputation or incinerating a player with a massive Bengay overdose, and I'll be happy. Plouffe's injury, if it lingers, is the kind of thought exercise I'd want to avoid if I were hitting the division contender Kool-aid especially hard this season. How many competitive franchises in MLB would be forced to admit that their best backup option at third base is an adorable hobbit with 13 career home runs and an AARP card?

Important dates in science fiction history: August 4, 1997 - SkyNet becomes self-aware. August 29, 1997 - SkyNet launches preemptive strike against the USSR. March 10, 2013 - SkyNet launches preemptive defense of Twins medical staff.

Other way 'round. Beltran 71, Hicks 94. For what they're worth.

Maybe if we're desperate for a twins CF comp for Hicks, we should start thinking Player B to keep expectations in line. He was a switch hitter who struggled from one side (albeit RH), had good plate discipline, some pop, and contact issues: Hicks: AA age 22. 472 AB .286/.384/.460 79 BB 116K 13HR 32SB 11CS Player B: AA age 21 516 AB .287/.398/.450 94 BB 117K 15HR 29SB 7CS B was a third rounder who was less highly regarded than Hicks but who marched through the minors without a level repeat. Half season of AAA and midseason call up at 22. 98 AB .265/.351/.327 before knee injury ended season. Struggled following year in 392 mlb AB's posting .232/.303/.296. Put it together at age 24, 525 AB .291/.372/.434 12HR 19SB 5CS as the Twins CF in 1996...

Don't feel too bad. You made some good points, but using mere logic to tackle a post with "love" and "Pohlads" in the same sentence is like handling anti-matter with salad tongs.

It's a starter/reliever thing for me, but great call on the comp. Also, Gibson strikes me as more of a likeable Nook Laloosh rube than a veteran of the California Penal League: http://www.minnpost.com/sites/default/files/KyleGibsonTwinsHeadShot210.jpg "Raye Anne, right? That's a beautiful name. Is that Greek? It's a beautiful name. There's a great song by Motley Crue. Do you know it? Raye Anne, she's a stay on..."

But we've already got one of these dudes, don't we? That Deduno guy who kept hitting the mascot last year, right? http://i.imgflip.com/gjf8.gif One more reason Gibson doesn't start the season on the 25 man...

Dear World Baseball Classic, Please go away. Or at least don't conflict with spring training. It's embarrassing to see players who've almost all just had five months off leave work the first or second week back. Thanks, LaBombo

No. Just next to nothing. It's great that Hicks is off to a fast start, but it has little to do with predicting his path going forward compared to his minor league record and accumulated scouting.

It's always nice to see a prospect look sharp in spring training, especially one who everyone hopes to see with the big club sometime this season. That being said, Hicks' homers say much more about what a ridiculously ineffective gauge of a player's ability spring training is than they say about Hicks. It's great for his confidence, but I'm just looking for him to make contact and get on base. If he adds power to the tool box, bonus. Regarding future potential, Hicks will go as far as his left-handed swing will take him. Everything else is there, from all accounts. And I'll throw Carlos Beltran into the mix for comps. Toolsie switch hitter, much more effective batting right-handed. They're grain of salt at best, but here are the Cube's grades for their offense: Beltran: Speed 77 Contact 54 Patience 71 Batting Average 62 Power 70 Hicks : Speed 78 Contact 47 Patience 94 Batting Average 60 Power 68 Beltran is a perennial All Star, so of course he represents the best case outlier for Hicks. How about 'Poor man's Carlos Beltran' as a realistic goal, with Hicks partially compensating for lower average and much less power (the cube vastly under-rates Beltran) with more walks and maybe a bit better defense. I'd be very happy with that, and I'll bet the Twins would be too.

Don't you mean 'can he bunt for power'?

It's not a precise science, but yeah, hitters can easily lose 30 or 40 points of average in transition from AAA to the majors. 50 might be a little bit over the average non-PCL drop. But then you throw in the intangible of a guy with one season above A ball struggling to adjust to his first two-league jump and pressing when he scuffles, and yeah, an MLB equivalency average 50 points below your hypothetical AAA .230 average seems very plausible. Liked your take on spring training, though. There's definitely a psychological element to the sorting process of spring training, especially when a non-contender has multiple unknown quantities battling for roster spots.