Only Here in Negative

Are you now on team 13 pitchers? :-) Or maybe Team Astudillo? His bat control and ability to play catcher may be more valuable. Though of course there's something to leaving with who brought you to the dance. Adrianza has been on this team all year and has been a big cog. Leaving him off has the potential to be disruptive. I wish the Twins had been able to grab Billy Hamilton or someone. The clear value is in having that base stealing threat. Does anyone know a similar guy in AA/AAA?

Interesting and a smart move by MLB to stop gaming of the system. Probably a good argument for Adrianza too, especially with some nagging injuries to guys like Buck, Rosario, Cruz, and Cron.

Defensive replacement means you're up late. Pinch runner means you're down or tied most likely. In the former you hopefully don't need his bat. In the latter, you are much more likely to need it.

But is he redundant with Schoop and Arraez already on the roster? Not to mention Marwin? It isn't Sano vs. Adrianza.

Agreed. I think it would take multiple injuries/flameouts and is super unlikely. That said, when I look at how unlikely the Twins are to use Adrianza in the series for anything meaningful, part of me wishes that they'll have so many strong relief options that they think about leaving him off. Adrianza is really only useful if you have multiple day-to-day injuries that don't allow you to comfortably pull a guy from the roster and replace him.* Isn't it more likely that the Twins would use an extra reliever (assuming Littel or Thorpe pitch well down the stretch) in an extra inning or short-start game than need Adrianza to come off the bench? Now I've kind of talked myself into that 13th pitcher. Twins aren't going to go far if they don't win the close games in extras and another reliever would be useful. * Even then, I'm sure you could fake an injury to a Thorpe or Smeltzer and get Adrianza in.

If Perez moves to the rotation, you could potentially see Thorpe and Smeltzer if the Twins want two longer relievers. I think you'd only see this if there are major red flags down the stretch for 3-4 starters. But worth considering. At that point, you could even see the unthinkable 13 man staff on the roster and Adrianza taking a seat. Seems unlikely but it'd be hard to argue that Adrianza provides more value than the ability to bullpen a game. Hopefully doesn't come down to that.

This assumes the Twins make the ALDS and not the Wild Card game, which is a totally different beast. Don't worry, I've knocked on wood. Also, lets try to keep this focused on the playoff roster and not the deadline or the FO. Those threads have had their day, we're looking forward. Okay, let's go. ---------------------------- Last year in the ALDS, three teams carried 11 pitchers and the Yankees carried 12. So we’ll carry at least 11 and consider a 12th. But first the givens for position players: Catchers (2): Garver and Castro Infielders (4): Polanco, Sano, Cron, Schoop Outfielders (3) Buxton, Kepler, Rosario DH (1): Cruz Marwin (1): Marwin (who I see as the 4th OF when the Twins are healthy) That's 11 locked position players. These are the pitchers I see as givens: Starters (4): Berrios, Pineda, Gibson, Odo Relievers (6): Rogers, Romo, Dyson, May, Duffey, Perez Ten relievers brings us to 21 players and my first apology. I felt bad not including Arraez above, he’s definitely #22 and I’d expect to see him starting against righties while Schoop goes against lefties. More of a thought process thing than a comment on his status on a playoff roster. He's a lock and I’d be shocked if he didn’t have more at-bats than Schoop by the end of a series. The Twins will also certainly carry at least one more reliever. The handedness will be interesting there. I made Perez the starter who becomes the 6th reliever because I think he pairs best as a handcuff for each right-handed starter. That said, if one of the starters bombs in September, they could easily be the one moving to the pen. Regardless, I think the Twins will have their 7th reliever be a lefty since even if Perez is in the pen, they will view him as more of a long-reliever handcuff-type for a starter who leaves early or a pitch-him-til-he-drops option for a game that goes to extras. Therefore, I think you’re looking at one of Smeltzer or Thorpe for spot #23. (And I personally loved the Twins deadline but do think they erred in not getting a cheap veteran LOOGY for that spot, I like Thorpe and Smeltzer but will not enjoy them facing a tough lefty in a big spot. Would've been an easy upgrade, even if it meant finding a guy with an option for August bullpen shuffling.) So for those final two spots you’re looking at Adrianza, Cave, and Astudillo for position players or else a 12th reliever. Neither the Yankees nor the Astros have a ton of lefties in the lineup so I think you’ll see a right-handed reliever as a candidate. That means one of Hildy/Harper/Littel/Graterol/Alcala. I’ll be watching all September to see who gets hot from that group, particularly the latter two. If no one does, you’ll potentially see two position players. Of those position players, Adrianza makes the most sense. He’s a late-inning defensive replacement for Sano (though if Cron continues to crater, you may see Sano at 1B and Marwin at 3B in the playoffs) and his bat has been hot for two months now. Cave is relatively redundant when the Twins are healthy since he’s a 5th OF (and is he that much better than Arraez out there?) Astudillo is more interesting if he gets hot. Having a 3rd catcher can be useful for extra innings in the playoffs so I’d probably go with Astudillo if they don’t go with an 8th pitcher . If nothing else, his contact bat could be great off the bench in a runner-on-third-with-one-out situation. (As an aside, one of my few real criticisms of Rocco has been his inability to get Garver time at 1B – why is Adrianza ever playing there when you can get Garver’s bat in the lineup? It’s not injury, since a 1B can shift to C if something untoward happens.) It should be noted that nowhere on here do you see a pinch-runner type. That’s my final small criticism of the Twins’ playoff prep. Adrianza has been a key player this year but he’s largely redundant in the playoffs unless the Twins reach the World Series and are playing by NL rules. The Twins are unlikely to pinch hit multiple times in a game before that point so his only value is as a pinch runner. He's definitely better than Sano or Cruz on the basepaths but he's not that much better. The Twins would be much better off with a speed-first guy who can steal a base or score from first on any double -- but that guy isn’t currently on the 40 man. It’ll be interesting to see what the Twins do with the open 40 man spot before they hit the end of the month. Everyone hopes they add Graterol or Alcala to that open spot in case they are playoff-ready but if the Twins decide not to, will they find a speed-only guy in AA/AAA and add him? Might be a savvy move. It should also be noted that the Twins could open a second 40-man spots by moving Gonsalves to the 60 day DL. Gonsalves' spot would be an ideal spot for a speedy minor-league veteran who you wouldn't mind DFAing in the offseason. You heard it here first. Unless someone else said that elsewhere in which case, you heard it plagiarized here. So my guess at a playoff roster: Starters (4): Berrios Gibson Odorizzi Pineda Relievers (7): Perez Rogers Dyson Romo Duffey May Smeltzer DH (1): Cruz Catchers (2): Garver Castro Infielders (6): Cron Schoop Arraez Polanco Sano Adrianza Outfielders (4): Buxton Kepler Rosario Gonzalez 25th Man: Astudillo isn’t going to get enough at-bats in September if this stays close so I don't see him forcing himself on the roster. Cave adds nothing and is about to lose playing time (and his 25 man spot for a few days) with Buck back. Given the Twins issues with start length and the potential for quick hooks, they’ll go with a reliever. Littel probably deserves it but I’m going to go with my heart and say Graterol shows enough down the stretch to make the roster. Thoughts?

This is a fair point. The FO clearly really liked one or likely both of these guys because I don't think that they thought they were selling high on Pressly. It is rather ironic that with Pressly going down and Alcala a candidate for the Twins pen come September 1st that the Twins could have the guy who helps them out the most this year (by virtue of potentially pitching in high leverage playoff situations). I still like the trade but can absolutely see your well-put point.

A bit of an arbitrary number since Celestino is #21 and Alcala is #23 and they're likely to move up since both are taking big second half jumps. Plus, #21 in the Twins loaded system is not perhaps indicative of their value. I think most people would look at those two as up-and-coming prospects -- and most reviews of the trade at the time indicated as such. Good call on Duran. I knew the Escobar trade had someone important but stupid work kept me from doing a dive. That Escobar trade was really the cherry of last deadline. It's sad to not have him and too bad he never hit the open market as you would expect but for a 1/2 season of a guy they basically got a rich man's version of via a combination of Marwin Gonzalez and Arraez, they got a very nice prospect. Good point.

But look how much your concept of a trade changes over time. When consummated, the Pressley trade seemed solid - a good-but-not-great reliever who we'd gotten in the Rule 5 for a young power arm and a toolsy outfielder. You'd miss Pressley and worry about replacing him but those were legit prospects. Then if you wait until the end of the 2018 season, it looked awful. Pressley takes a huge jump and Alcala and Celestino were nothing special. Same thing if you move to June 1st of this year. But look at it today, and it looks much better. Alcala and Celestino are looking like great prospects and Pressley is likely out for the season and about to cost seven times what he cost this year. And you can argue that Pressley will likely directly contribute to no World Series games while under team control. You have to look at a trade in the long run or you're just reacting to the here and now. If I based my review of the Pressley trade on just right now, that would be incomplete. It wouldn't showcase all he did for the Astros over the past 12 months and it wouldn't include the potential for prospect burnout. Just like doing it right at the trade consummation wouldn't include the potential for the Astros to develop Pressley. Or how dismissing the Twins' ability to develop their new players from the equation or the potential for injury to any of the three guys might change our view of the trade. Your stance is basically equivalent to those terrible clickbait articles: Grade the 2018 NFL Draft! There can't possibly be anything to definitively learn from something that hasn't fully developed yet. I'm not arguing that no one should discuss the merits of the trade. Just that any indication that the trade was clearly won by Houston or was clearly the worst move by the FO is incredibly premature. Its trafficking in hyperbole and reactionary hot takes. Also, watch the namecalling. No reason to call people's opinions weak. Or so I've been told. I think by you.

And the Twins got a significantly higher package of prospects because of that year. That makes it different the other way. You have to give up value to get value. None of the other Twins trades were for players with the upside of Celestino and Alcala. Some of those players might contribute but its hard to see many with the star upside of the guys Houston traded. I also think that if Lance Lynn had gone to the Yankees and done very well for them, there would've been some angst. He just was an okay pitcher. Also, highly doubt he ends up top 5 in Cy Young. Though he has had an excellent season.

And many of those posters were also upset about other trades that turned out fine. "We were right about one trade" is about as small of a sample size as you can use. The Twins made a number of trades last year at the break and most of them were pretty solid on paper. We don't really know yet on any of them in person because it's early. The Pressley trade was not a clear mistake. You can't know that unless you know that Pressley will continue being the guy from the last year for the next two years and/or that Alcala and Celestino will be guys whose name we bandy about on a "remember this fallen prospect" thread in ten years. If Alcala becomes a serviceable relief arm and Celestino becomes a 4th OFer, the trade is probably pretty even. If either pops into a late inning guy/starting OFer, the Twins win. If neither makes more than a token appearance, then the Astros win. Gotta give it time before calling something a "clear mistake".

There is no way you can make that call yet. Pressley has been very good but he's hurt right now )potentially done for the season) and will get expensive next year. The Twins didn't get nobody in that trade. Alcala is one of the best young arms in the Twins system and has a decent chance to be an impact bullpen arm down the stretch. The Twins control him for the next six years (at least). Celestino started out poorly but has been one of the hottest bats in the minors and just reached High A ball at age 20. The early returns on the Pressley trade were bad for the Twins but they were always going to be. That's what happens when you trade established relievers for prospects. But the deal doesn't look so bad a year later and will potentially look like a steal for the Twins in two years.

That doesn't stop most people.

This would be more interesting just for september when rosters expand. Not sure they can make it two weeks though. Maybe if they decide to dl someone else?

That is confirmation bias. In a very small sample, he's been a bit rough when he pitched two innings one day and then pitches the next. When it's one inning he's fine. And even that two inning thing is really a pretty small sample.

Adrianza over the last 50 games has an ops of close to 1.000

I think there wasn't much to say about Kevin Gausman. He's Kevin Gausman.

But if you knew that you could then turn around and shop Correa/Polanco for CF help, do you think you'd get someone better than Buxton? Or maybe be able to move Correa for a better pitching prospect? I'd think so. I love Buck but I'd trade him for Correa in a heartbeat. I'd also probably trade him for Berrios if Jose were with another team. Luckily he's not!

I think you have to look at it as value. If the Twins were able to get Correa, he has more value to the league than Buxton and they could flip him. Correa is a year younger, plays a more premium position, and has had more sustained success. He does hit free agency a year earlier but I still think that most teams, in a bubble, would take Correa over Buxton now. I wouldn't do Giolito but I think its the only one I could see someone thinking is okay (besides Berrios of course!)

Interestingly he currently has more WAR (Baseball Reference) than Buxton. 10.0 to 9.8. Hopefully Buxton passes him in September! For that 1st round, the Top-11 in WAR is as follows: Correa (20.6) Seager (15.9) Stroman (13.5) Addison Russell (12.4) Hanniger (10.7) Gausman (10.0) Buxton (9.8) Matt Olson (9.2) Joey Gallo (8.2) Stepehn Piscotty (7.8) Berrio (7.6) The Twins would definitely trade Buxton for Correa straight up but other than that, I don't see anyone on that list they'd trade him for. Only one might be Lucas Giolito (3.8)? Would you? He was bad last year but he's a 24 year old with great stuff and you control him until 2024. For all of Buck's struggles to perform and stay healthy, he's still a pretty excellent pick.

I I'll counter with this: Dyson at Oracle last year: 39.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, .709 OPS Dyson away last year 31 IP, 1.45 ERA, .577 OPS Your sample is small. If you add the two together he's pretty much the same home and away.

Asking the obvious question: What conspiracies do you believe in? If you say moon landing, that should be warning points.

I'll counter with this: Dyson at Oracle last year: 39.1 IP, 3.66 ERA, .709 OPS Dyson away last year 31 IP, 1.45 ERA, .577 OPS Your sample is small. If you add the two together he's pretty much the same home and away.

Glad you liked that deal. Addressing these in point form. 1.) Also been a fan of Thorpe for like four years, he's been my guy for awhile. Only thing you're wrong on is that he MAY be the 5th starter next year. I think he's going to be a 3/4 and there's no maybe about it. He has the stuff and the makeup and the Twins have some openings. He's only going to get better. 2.) You are right that maybe Diekmann is unnecessary. I was in on him before Smeltzer and Thorpe both look viable. I'd be fine rolling with them as a second lefty, perhaps having the two of them run the shuttle in tandem. 3.) I want to take all of that salary. Maybe someone will show how paying Kennedy $16 million next year impacts the Twins ability to fill pitching holes or extend people but I remember them having little to no money committed to next year. KC is a cheap club rebuilding, that salary is a big selling point. If they take that, I could see it being a Romero-type alone. It'd be nice to save Javier/Gordon for the offseason or next deadline when prices are lower. 4.) I don't know about this. I agree its deep but its nowhere near the best. The Cubs, Indians, Astros, and Dodgers (just to name a few) have way better rotations. Berrios is the #1 but who would start Game 2? I can talk myself into any of the 4. Gibby based on last year, Pineda based on last few starts, Perez based on beginning of this year, Odo based on veteran status. I think you are right that there's no one who is substantially better than they guys we have now that MadBum is likely off the market and the Mets are going to demand so much that they trade no one. If they got a starting pitcher 07/31 for low-tier prospects, I'd be okay. But agreed that I don't see it as a priority. One solid reliever, maybe two if you get good deals. No need for a "closer"