Andrew Gebo

Yeah I was making a joke because it’s not a bold prediction at all. It’s more so a matter of fact at this point haha. Thank you for reading!

Today’s contest was the last of a long 10-game road trip and Minnesota was looking to finish strong, with a 6-4 record. They had the right guy on the mound in Jake Odorizzi, who has been nothing short of dominant all season, but even more so as of late. Over his last seven starts prior to today, Jake was 6-0 with a 0.65 ERA and 16 1/3 scoreless innings.Box Score Odorizzi: 6.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 8 K, 70.7% strikes (70 of 99 pitches) Bullpen: 3.0 IP, 4 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 3 K Home Runs: Cruz (11), Sano (6), Buxton (8), Rosario (19) Multi-Hit Games: Cruz (3-for-6, HR), Rosario (3-for-6, HR), Cron (2-for-5, 2B), Sano (2-for-5, HR), Adrianza (2-for-3, 2B, BB), Buxton (2-for-5, HR) WPA of +0.1: Cruz .125, Garver .111 WPA of -0.1: None Download attachment: Win69.png (chart via FanGraphs) Scoring Comes Early Early run support was one of the FSN broadcast keys to victory and Minnesota did exactly that. Jorge Polanco and Mitch Garver jumped on Detroit pitcher Ryan Carpenter before most fans had time to find their seats. A single from Polanco and a double from Garver scored the Twins first run on only the fourth pitch of the game. The first inning scoring did not stop there. With Garver standing on second and nobody out, Nelson Cruz stepped into the box and quickly found himself in an 0-2 hole. He battled back to even the count at 2-2 before blasting a high fastball over the left field wall, giving Minnesota a 3-0 lead and marking the fourth consecutive game in which Nelson Cruz has homered. Next Game Tue vs. SEA, 7:10 pm CT (Perez-Leake) Last Game DET 9, MIN 3: Third Out Eludes Gibson, Eades Debuts More from Twins Daily Twins Minor League Report (6/8): I Wander Who Hit That Grand Slam A Golden Bear Changing Cities: Q&A with Louie Varland Craig Kimbrel and Risk Tolerance Click here to view the article

Across all sports the term “underdog” is typically given to teams who lack elite talent but are good enough to be relevant. It is rare when a team leads their respective sport in most major statistical categories and fighting for the number one seed in the postseason to be given the “underdog” label. The 2019 Minnesota Twins are the exception to that rule. As a fan, it is very easy and understandable to be blinded by emotion when talking about your favorite team. We all think our favorite team is the best - unless you’re a Marlins or Orioles fan but then you wouldn't be reading this anyway. Fans also tend to overreact to minor mishaps or punch a hole in the wall when their team doesn’t commit $45million over three years to a 31 year old reliever with declining peripherals. This article will not be an emotionally driven rant about media biases and the Twins not getting respect because they’re a small market team. Rather, my goal is to present an objective analysis of how absurd it is that this team is already an “underdog” to make a deep postseason run. Let’s first look at the current playoff odds of AL division leaders, provided by FanGraphs. Houston Astros: (42-21), 99.9% chance of a postseason appearance, 20.1% chance of winning the World Series. Minnesota Twins: (40-20), 96.5% chance of a postseason appearance, 7.7% chance of winning the World Series. New York Yankees: (38-22), 95% chance of a postseason appearance, 12% chance of winning the World Series. Now let’s compare how these teams have performed so far in terms of offense and pitching, beginning with offense. It’s no secret the Twins have crushed the ball this year and you may not be surprised to see them at the top of the AL, but here it is anyway. Minnesota Twins: .272/.339/.510 .850 OPS, 114 HR, 14.7 WAR Houston Astros: .271/.344/.478 .822 OPS, 100 HR, 14.5 WAR New York Yankees: .257/.334/.448 .781 OPS, 97 HR, 8.7 WAR You probably didn’t need me to tell you how good their offense has been. If you follow this team then you should (hopefully) already know that. There you have it though, of the current AL division leaders, the Minnesota Twins are the best offensive team. Now let’s look at pitching, beginning with starting pitching. Minnesota Twins: 3.56 ERA, 1.28 HR/9, 1.16 WHIP Houston Astros: 3.68 ERA, 1.55 HR/9, 1.06 WHIP New York Yankees: 3.89 ERA, 1.65 HR/9, 1.22 WHIP Let that sink in for a second - the Minnesota Twins not only have the best offense but one of the best starting rotations as well. Bullpen stats aren’t as favorable but they’re also not as bad as most people in Twins territory seem to believe. Minnesota Twins: 4.67 ERA, 1.26 HR/9, 1.41 WHIP Houston Astros: 3.32 ERA, 1.18 HR/9, 1.12 WHIP New York Yankees: 3.74 ERA, 1.04 HR/9, 1.26WHIP If you’re reading this then you likely follow baseball. If you follow baseball you likely already knew the Yankees have a great bullpen and the Astros turned Ryan Pressly into a super reliever - it’s okay to be sad about that one Twins fans, I’ll allow it. However, the Twins bullpen has been respectable and Taylor Rogers is emerging as a super reliever. Let’s recap - of the three current AL division leaders, the Twins have the lowest odds of winning the World Series, according to FanGraphs. Minnesota also currently boasts the best offensive production among AL division leaders and their starting rotation has the lowest ERA and has surrendered the least amount of home runs per 9 innings. Also, if the season ended today, Jake Odorizzi is the AL Cy Young winner. Their bullpen has been good but not great and ranks last among current AL division leaders but they’ve still gotten solid production from the bullpen. 10th best bullpen ERA in the league type of production - which by the way, is pretty darn good. Here’s a quick look at how they stack up against all of MLB in pitching and hitting. Minnesota currently leads the league in the following offensive categories: AVG, SLG, OPS, and wOBA. They’re tied for first in wRC+ and HR. Minnesota has been an offensive juggernaut. FanGraphs currently has the Twins ranked as the 4th best starting rotation in the league. They don’t lead the league in any statistical categories other than Wins - which for the most part is a useless stat when evaluating a pitchers individual performance - but their overall starting pitching production has been very strong. Any time you can rank in the top 5 of the league you’re doing something right - thank you, Wes Johnson. Minnesota’s bullpen currently ranks 11th in the league, according to FanGraphs. Top 10 would sound a lot better but 11th is still pretty good. Considering the bullpen expectations were extremely low going into the season, being the 11th best bullpen in the league is a pleasant surprise. If you have read this far you’ve hopefully learned or confirmed your own beliefs that the 2019 Twins are an offensive powerhouse with a top 5 starting rotation and a bullpen that ranks in the top half of the league - Go Twins! Yet for some reason, of the current AL division leaders they have the lowest odds to win the World Series (only 7.7% if you can’t remember that far back). Chris Russo of MLB Network thinks Minnesota is a “regular season team that isn’t built for the postseason”. He’s not alone in that sentiment, either. Most of the publications I have read and TV analysts I’ve listened to seem to echo the same feelings. They don’t believe the 2019 Minnesota Twins are legitimate World Series contenders and it’s shocking. Most of the time when a team is this good they are a consensus World Series favorite - except that doesn’t seem to apply to the 2019 Minnesota Twins. Maybe it’s because the roster lacks household names. Eddie Rosario, Jorge Polanco, Max Kepler, C.J. Cron and Mitch Garver aren’t going to be on the cover of Sport Illustrated anytime soon. The Astros, Dodgers, Red Sox and Yankees (when healthy) feature a lineup full of MVP winners, All Stars and future HOFers. This could be why the Twins are overlooked but that’s an idiotic reason. Perhaps it’s because Minnesota has been relatively irrelevant since 2010 - other than the brief postseason cameo in 2017. The Tigers, Royals, White Sox and Indians have all appeared in or won a World Series over the last two decades. The Twins, on the other hand, haven’t reached the ALCS since they were defeated by Anaheim in 2002. Maybe everyone forgot about Minnesota and now that they’re a juggernaut they don’t believe it, but again, that’s idiotic. Could it be because they don’t believe their current production is sustainable? This would be the least-idiotic reason to doubt this team. Jake Odorizzi has been a good but not great pitcher over his career. Now suddenly he’s a front runner for the AL Cy Young. Byron Buxton is putting together his best season as a pro, Jorge Polanco is an MVP candidate and up until his last couple starts, Martin Perez has been a completely different pitcher. As I write this on June 6th, the Minnesota Twins currently have five position players with a top 10 WAR for their respective positions. Those five are Polanco, Schoop, Kepler, Buxton, and Rosario. Top 10 doesn’t do enough justice for Jorge Polanco, he has the highest WAR of all shortstops and the 9th highest WAR in the entire league. He’s on pace to win a batting title and possibly the MVP. Minnesota is also one of only three teams in the league with two starting pitchers who rank top 20 in ERA - Jake Odorizzi (2nd) and Jose Berrios (20th). It is very possible that this level of production from relatively unproven players is not sustainable but even that is a bit of a stretch. Byron Buxton was the number one prospect in baseball, so seeing him produce like this isn’t outrageous. Jorge Polanco has always been able to hit and he’s just now entering his prime at age 25. It’s not uncommon for players to have a breakout season after having spent parts of five years in the big leagues and over 1,000 career plate appearances. Jake Odorizzi and Martin Perez, however, are performing significantly better than they have over their careers which does make it harder to believe it is sustainable. The 2019 Minnesota Twins are a legitimate championship contender. By no means am I saying they’re a lock for the World Series and will cruise through the postseason. It’s very possible they get bounced in the ALDS. It’s baseball, anything can happen but this is a very good baseball team that deserves more respect and should not be viewed a consensus underdog. Thank you for reading! If you’d like more Twins news and articles follow me on Twitter @Gebo__

I know how you feel! I felt the same way when writing this story. That’s why it features a quote from Major League and a history of the 2009 draft. Winning is fun though!

All this team does is win. Kyle Gibson was spectacular, completing seven innings for the second time this season, and the lineup stayed hot, scratching across eight more runs. The Twins have now won five straight and 10 of their last 11 games.Box Score Gibson: 7.0 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K, 69.4% strikes (68 of 98 pitches) Home Runs: Adrianza (4) Multi-Hit Games: Adrianza (3-for-4, HR), Polanco (2-for-5), Cron (2-for-3, 2B, BB) WPA of +0.1: Cron .218, Gibson .214 WPA of -0.1: None Download attachment: Win525.png (chart via FanGraphs) When You’re Hot, You’re Hot The Twins got on the board early, which seems to be an ongoing theme in 2019. The two runs came in different varieties, however. With two on and two away in the first inning, C.J. Cron lifted an easy fly ball to right field that should have been a routine “can of corn” to end the inning but the baseball god’s had other ideas. The White Sox right fielder seemingly never had a good read on the ball, allowing it to drop in for a two-run double. The old adage, “the ball never lies” once again proved to be true when Cron was later thrown out trying to take third on a passed ball. Thanks to RBI singles from C.J. Cron and Ehire Adrianza, the Twins added three more in the fourth inning and stretched their lead to 5-1. The lone run for the White Sox came from a Jose Abreu solo home run. With the way Gibson was throwing this game looked to be over before the fifth inning. Quality Start for Kyle Gibson Throughout most of this season, Kyle has struggled with working deep into games and has had a handful of outings where everything went wrong in one inning. That was not the case today. Gibby looked sharp from the first pitch of the game until his last. His final line was 7 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 1 BB, 9 K. Going Streaking in Minneapolis Every time a team goes on a winning streak I can’t help but remember this gem of a quote, “If we win today, it’s called two in a row, and if we win again tomorrow, it’s called a winning streak. It has happened before”. Luckily for the 2019 Twins, they are much better than the 1989 Lou Brown-led Indians from the classic film, Major League. Today’s win was the fifth in a row for the Twins. The last time they won five in a row? Oh jeez, only about a week ago when they won five straight before dropping game four in Seattle last Sunday, May 19. Selling Out For Taters Call me a sellout but I love seeing taters and sold out baseball stadiums. When I began typing this segment of my story I had planned to write about how the Twins won without hitting a home run. then Ehire Adrianza decided to make me use the backspace button when he launched a three-run homer in the eighth inning breaking the score open and giving the Twins an 8-1 lead. There was a lot of awesomeness in today’s game. Gibson pitched well, Adrianza had a multi-hit game and four RBIs, and the Twins won — again. The most awesome part about today though, at least to me, was the sellout crowd at Target Field. There’s something special and beautiful about a sea of red and blue filling the seats and cheering on the best team in the league. Hopefully the sellouts continue all through the summer. MLB Draft DOES Matter The MLB Draft will begin on June 3, so let’s go a decade back in time to the 2009 draft. Today’s starter, Kyle Gibson, is one of two starting pitchers taken in the first round that year who is still pitching for the team that drafted him. The other is Stephen Strasburg, who went first overall to the Nationals. In 2009, the Twins drafted Gibson with the 22nd overall pick and of the 16 pitchers taken in the first round, Kyle was the 14th pitcher to come off the board — meaning 13 other pitchers were taken before him. A decade later it looks like the Twins didn’t miss on their first round pick, unlike many other teams that year. Here are a handful of the pitchers taken before Gibson and If you remember any of these names I will be very impressed: Matt Hobgood, Jacob Turner, Tyler Matzek, Aaron Crow, Matt Purke, Alex White, Chad James, and Chad Jenkins. Of those eight pitchers, only six of them ever appeared in a big league game. Those lucky six combined for a career WAR of 4.0 - which if you’re not familiar with WAR, just know that’s really bad. A WAR of 4.0 for a single player over the course of one season is pretty good, an all-star level player, but a six player combined career WAR of four is what’s referred to as “replacement level” production. As I write this in 2019, Kyle Gibson has a career WAR of 9.3, which is the fourth best of the sixteen pitchers taken in the first round of 2009. Here are the three with a better career WAR: Stephen Strasburg (26.3), Mike Leake (12.6) and Mike Minor (10.1). A decade later it’s fair to say the Twins did well with their 22nd overall pick in 2009. While you’re likely now feeling all warm and fuzzy and thinking “Oh wow, that is great! Good for the Twins!” There is one other relatively minor detail about that 22nd pick in 2009 - a guy named Mike Trout, was taken three picks later by the Angels with the 25th overall selection. Not only is he the first player to have a career earnings over half a billion dollars but he also has a career WAR of 67.5 which is more than Strasburg, Leake, Minor and Gibson combined. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen525.png Next Game Sun vs. CHW, 1:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Covey) Last Game MIN 11, CWS 4: Twins Make Home Run History More from Twins Daily When the Twins Go Buying ... Who Are They Selling? Building for Primetime Baldelli Is More Coddling Millennial Than Field General Click here to view the article

The Twins hit eight more home runs Thursday afternoon, giving them 98 on the year. Wow. The lineup jumped all over Matt Harvey, scoring eight runs in less than three innings en route to wrapping up the series sweep. Martin Perez improved to 7-1 on the season.Box Score Perez: 5.0 IP, 6 H, 2 ER, 4 BB, 3 K, 58.0% strikes (51 of 88 pitches) Home Runs: Schoop 2 (10), Polanco (9), Cron (13), Sano 2 (4), Kepler (10), Rosario (14) Multi-Hit Games: Cron (5-for-6, 2 2B, HR), Kepler (3-for-5, 2B, HR, BB), Rosario (3-for-6, HR), Polanco (2-for-3, 2B, HR, BB), Sano (2-for-4, 2 HR, BB), Schoop (2-for-5, HR) WPA of +0.1: Schoop .198 WPA of -0.1: None Download attachment: Win523.png (chart via FanGraphs) Bringing The Rain in Southern California Mother Nature may have brought the rain on Wednesday, postponing the game until today. This afternoon, however, the Twins were the bringers of rain. They made sure to shower the outfield bleachers with home run balls, early and often. The Dark Knight, otherwise known as Matt Harvey, likely wanted a mulligan after surrendering four home runs in only 2 2/3 innings. New Day, New Lineup, Same Result Today’s contest was the 49th game of the year for the Twins and the 37th different lineup that Rocco Baldelli has used. That stat is a product of many factors, such as injuries, positional versatility, and perhaps most significantly, Baldelli’s emphasis on not over-using players. Whatever the reason may be it doesn’t seem to matter, this team hits taters, regardless of who’s in the lineup. Making Tater Tot Hotdishes The greatest quote of the year still belongs to Max Kepler, when he said, “we’re going to hit a lot of taters”. If anyone has his phone number it might be wise to ask him for lottery numbers because he was spot on with that prediction. After their third inning home run barrage, today marked their league-leading 24th multi-home run game. In the seventh inning Sano and Schoop went back-to-back, each hitting their second of the game. Max Kepler joined the party as well, launching his 10th of the year. Eddie Rosario finally snapped his streak of tater-less games (that is a word, go along with it), blasting his 14th of the year — his first since May 8. Entering the game they had 90 home runs, before it was over, they were at 98. That is certainly more than enough taters needed to make a hot dish. Aggressive Eddie If you have watched this team long enough then you have likely become accustomed to Eddie Rosario being a very aggressive player. His aggression is part of what makes him such a special and entertaining player. One play early in the game that really stood out was when Rosario scored on a sac fly hit to the shortstop. The ensuing four home runs that same inning made this play a relatively minor detail in the box score, but at the time it was anything but that. Martin Perez had just wiggled out of a first inning jam. The score was tied 0-0, with runners on second and third and nobody out. Luis Arraez hit a blooper into shallow left field. Angels shortstop, Zack Cozart, caught the shallow pop-up while drifting back on his heels. Eddie, being Eddie, saw this as an opportunity to steal a run and he did just that. When watching this play I couldn’t help but think of how the injury to Andrelton Simmons affected the outcome. It’s certainly hard to argue that Simmons is anything but the best defensive shortstop in the game. Had he been in the lineup today and playing shortstop it is likely fair to think Eddie would not have tagged up in that situation. Again, this play became an irrelevant footnote, but nonetheless, it is still an interesting baseball play worth mentioning. Fun Facts Today’s contest featured a handful of interesting tidbits. Hopefully these fun facts can provide you with a few conversation starters at your next cocktail party: Yesterday was only the second rainout in Anaheim in nearly 25 years.This 2019 season is the first time in franchise history the Twins have enjoyed a 6+ game lead in the division before June 1st.So far this season, no other team in the league has hit six or more home runs in one game, the Twins have done it four times.Their eight home runs today ties the franchise record for team home runs in a single game.Twins have 208 extra-base hits, no other team has yet to hit 200.Their 18 road wins is the most of any team in the league.Today was World Turtle Day and Willians Astudillo struck out and walked in the same game (that’s more rare than rain in Southern California).Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen523.png Next Game Fri vs. CHW, 7:10 pm CT (Berrios-Lopez) Last Game MIN 8, LAA 3: Bats Break Loose Late More from Twins Daily Polanco Proving It for Good Baldelli Is More Coddling Millennial Than Field General Where's the Weakness? Click here to view the article

Going into Sunday’s action, the Twins were looking to accomplish two things: Stretch their season-long win streak to six games and complete a four-game road sweep of Seattle for the first time in franchise history. Unfortunately, they were denied both and they boarded a plane to Los Angeles looking to begin a new winning streak.Box Score Gibson: 6.0 IP, 9 H, 4 ER, 0 BB, 6 K, 64.8% strikes (59 of 91 pitches) Home Runs: None Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (4-for-5) WPA of +0.1: Polanco .252 WPA of -0.1: Cron -.168, May -.171, Gibson -.301 Download attachment: Win519.png (chart via FanGraphs) Buxton Hitting 9th There is not much to gripe about when a team is playing this well. The early season success indicates Rocco Baldelli has pushed all the right buttons. However, having Buxton continue to hit ninth, especially in a matchup like today's, is perplexing. Slightly more than a quarter of the way through the season, Buxton is leading all ninth-place hitters in hits (39) and home runs (4). Byron has also been the Twins' second-best hitter when facing left-handed pitching. Going into the game, he was hitting .400/.444/.640 with a 1.089 OPS, second only to CJ Cron, who has crushed lefties to the tune of .393/.438/.964 and a 1.402 OPS. Those numbers alone are not indicative of a number nine hitter. It becomes even more perplexing when considering today’s lineup featured Ehire Adrianza, and Luis Arraez making his first big league start. Both of who were slotted higher than Buxton in the lineup. Byron has been enjoying the breakout season we have all been waiting for, so this very well could be a case of “if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it.” Buxton went 0-for-3 with a pair of strikeouts, but also drew a walk and scored a run. There wasn't much offense to speak of for the Twins. Lead off man Jorge Polanco had four of the team's seven hits, all of which were singles. Trading Zeros Early While the Saturday night game featured a lot of early offense, Sunday proved to be quite the opposite. Neither team pushed a run across through the first three innings. The only real threat came in the top of the third, when the Twins had the bases loaded and two outs with C.J. Cron at the plate. He was unable to drive in a run, adding to the Twins struggles with two outs and runners in scoring position. Offense Wakes Up Finally, in the bottom of the fourth, the Mariners drew first blood. With back-to-back doubles from Edwin Encarnacion and Domingo Santana, they took an early 1-0 lead. Much like they have done all year, the Twins responded immediately. Following back-to-back walks to open the fifth, Polanco dropped down a beautiful bunt and a throwing error by the pitcher allowed a run to score, tying the game at 1-1. Like we’ve come to expect, the Twins did not stop there. Buxton scored on a weak chopper back to the pitcher off the bat of Jonathan Schoop and the Twins added a third run of the inning thanks to an error by the Mariners shortstop, J.P. Crawford. Perhaps most impressively, they scored three runs in one inning without hitting a home run. Much like they did to Berrios on Saturday, the Mariners feasted on Kyle Gibson in the fifth inning. After surrendering a leadoff double, it looked like Gibson was about to wiggle out of the jam with two quick outs. Mitch Haniger had other ideas, however, as he blasted a two-run home run to tie the game at three. The very next batter, Daniel Vogelbach, launched a solo home run, giving the Mariners a 4-3 lead. 7th-Inning Stretch The Mariners were able to stretch their lead to 7-3 in the bottom of the seventh. Trevor May retired the first two batters he faced, but then appeared to lose control of the zone. He issued a pair of two-out walks, fell behind Edwin Encarnacion and gave up a three-run blast. Closing It Out The Twins offense showed a little life in the ninth. They managed to get two runners on and a one-out single from Polanco drove in a run. With Schoop representing the tying run, he flew out to deep right field and that was the ballgame. A sweep would have been ideal, but it’s hard to imagine anyone being upset with a 3-1 record in a four-game road series. The flight to Los Angeles will likely still be a happy one. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen519.png Next Three Games Mon at LAA, 9:07 pm CT (Odorizzi-Pena) Tue at LAA, 9:07 pm CT (Pineda-Cahill) Wed at LAA, 8:07 pm CT (Perez-Harvey) Last Game MIN 18, SEA 4: Sharks Eat Mariners Click here to view the article

The powerful Twins lineup mashed a couple more home runs tonight, but the team's struggles to deliver clutch hits continued. They combined to go 0-for-10 with runners in scoring position and Jose Berrios had his worst start of the season as the Twins dropped the series opener to the Angels 5-4.Box Score Berrios: 5.2 IP, 12 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 3 K, 62.4% strikes (63 of 101 pitches) Home Runs: Polanco (8), Gonzalez (4) Multi-Hit Games: Polanco (2-for-5, HR), Rosario (2-for-4) WPA of +0.1: Astudillo .178, Gonzalez .110 WPA of -0.1: Kepler -.117, Buxton -.171, Garver -.182, Castro -.210, Berrios -.332 Download attachment: Win513.png (chart via FanGraphs) Neither pitcher looked good early on, as Jose Berrios and Tyler Skaggs combined to throw 121 pitches through the first three innings. In the fourth inning, Berrios matched his season high in hits allowed (eight) and recorded his first ground ball double play of the season when he got Shohei Ohtani to ground into a 4-6-3 on a 3-0 pitch to end the inning. Worst Start of the Year for Berrios The struggles for Berrios didn’t end after he induced the fourth inning double play. In the fifth inning, a replay challenge ruled Andrelton Simmons was safe on a stolen base and he later scored on a seeing-eye ground ball from Albert Pujols. Jose also served up two home runs, the first to Shohei Ohtani in the third inning and the second to Tommy La Stella in the sixth. After allowing two base runners following the La Stella home run, Berrios' night was cut short after 5 2/3 innings. For the first time this season, Jose was pulled prior to completing six innings. He surrendered 12 hits and allowed five earned runs with only three strikeouts on 101 pitches. Simply put, he did not look like his usual self tonight. Resilient Twins Offense Strikes Again The Angels weren’t the only ones having fun at the plate. Thanks to a pair of two-run home runs from Jorge Polanco and Marwin Gonzalez, the Twins tied the score at four apiece in the bottom of the fifth inning. If not for having an Angel in the outfield, it very well could have been three home runs for the Twins but Garver’s blast came up just short of the flower beds in left and instead landed in the outfielders glove. Coming Up Just Short The bullpen kept the Twins alive, keeping the Angels off the board over three plus innings. A double from La Tortuga to lead off the eight showed promise of another late inning rally but the offense fell short and were unable to drive him in. With the top of the order due up in the ninth, the Twins had one last chance to come from behind. Unfortunately it didn't go their way. They were retired in order and for only the third time this year the Twins dropped back to back games. Postgame With Baldelli Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen513.png Next Three Games Tue vs. LAA, 6:40 pm CT (Gibson-Pena) Wed vs. LAA, 12:10 pm CT (Odorizzi-Cahill) Thu at SEA, 9:10 pm CT (TBD) Last Game DET 5, MIN 3: We Have a Problem Click here to view the article

Don’t get me wrong, I love me some MadBum! Who doesn’t want to see him blowing snot rockets, staring down umpires after a bad call and being an overall badass? If Perez or Odorizzi regress back to their career normal level of production then the possibility of acquiring Bumgarner becomes very real. It’s also very likely they can get Bum without giving up Lewis, Kiriloff or Graterol. He turns 30 in August, he’s a free agent after this year and he’s shown signs of not being the same guy he was back in 2014. A player like that doesn’t typically warrant a return of a top 10 overall prospect.

If Buxton can reach his full potential and be the type of player that earned him the title of baseballs #1 overall prospect then Kepler is likely the “worst” OFer on the team. Now, before you get mad at me, that’s not a knock on Kepler. That more so speaks to the overall potential of this teams core. Kepler, as you outlined in your post, is showing signs of breaking out and becoming a very good player. It would be hard to argue that an OF consisting of Rosario, Buxton, and Kepler is anything but one of, if not the best OF in baseball. His low BABIP is head scratching for sure. The only theory I can think of is that defensive shifts are impacting his BABIP. Balls hit up the middle or to the pull side are being turned into outs more frequently due in large part to the shifts. There could be other factors involved but defensive shifting likely plays a role in his low BABIP.

You’re absolutely right that Gibson being the #4 is more about his health going into the season and less about his ability as a pitcher. I don’t think anyone, Perez included, expected him to be this good. His cutter and 3-4mph increase in fastball velocity seems to be a huge turning point for him, which is great to see. The fact that Gibson is slotted as the #4, regardless of the reason why, just highltits the depth of their rotation. The rotation lacks household names, other than maybe Berrios but even he’s not a well known name to casual fans of other teams. I think that plays into fans’ perception of the rotation because there’s no Chris Sale, Justin Verlander, Clayton Kershaw, Max Scherzer, etc. type guy. Last note on the rotation, Wes Johnson deserves a lot of credit for their success. He’s clearly figured something out. The bullpen is going to be tricky. Right now it looks like the reliever market is going to be very limited at the deadline. Simple supply/demand economics would indicate that means any arms that are available will likely demand above market value given the scarcity of the market. I remain optimistic about Romero. He’s certainly struggled with command but he has electric stuff and I think he could develop into a weapon out of the bullpen. Thanks for reading and let’s keep the good times rollling!

Thanks for reading! The only way a trade for Melancon would make sense is if the Giants eat most of his contract and even then I don’t know for 100% but I believe he has full no trade rights. Sam Dyson, Tony Watson, and Will Smith are the more likely candidates from their pen. I’m going to have to disagree with you on Cave, though. I really don’t think the Giants would have much interest in him. Left handed bats (Barry Bonds aside) have not done well in their ballpark. The Padres also have some intriguing arms in their pen but they’re beginning to look like a potential contender if not this year then very soon so it’s probably unlikely they’re willing to part with any talented bullpen arms. Overall though I think the reliever market is going to be very limited at the deadline. Outside of the Giants there’s really not many guys who fit the bill in terms of being trade chips. In regards to their internal options I remain very optimistic about Romero. I know he’s struggled with his command this year but there’s no denying he has great stuff. High velocity fastball and effective breaking balls when he can actually throw them for strikes. I think he’s a guy who has a chance to develop into a weapon out of the bullpen.

Thanks for the comment! I do agree that playoffs are a different beast and that is one area where a guy like Bumgarner could be very valuable. His career postseason track record is HOF worthy. There’s no active pitcher in the game who’s performed better than him in the playoffs. Even still, like I mentioned in my post I’m not convinced it’s wise to give up high end prospects to get him on a rental with the hope he can rediscover his 2014 postseason dominance. Obviously Bum isn’t the only pitcher available but I’ve heard Twins fans throw his name out there a lot. The pen is tricky too. Off top of my head I’m really not sure how many, if any, top level relief arms will be available at the deadline. Kimberl is the easy and obvious answer but I have a hard time believing that’s the direction they want to go.

Recently I have seen a lot of chatter on various social media sites about what the Twins should do at the deadline. Even though it’s only May, let’s talk about it. You’ve probably all heard or taken part in the cries for this team to be buyers. The other day I saw a tweet claiming they should trade Sano for Madison Bumgarner. This type of unrealistic fantasy trades aren’t worth discussing so let’s focus on much more practical moves. History will tell us that contending teams will almost certainly be buyers at the deadline. Cubs traded for Chapman, Astros acquired Verlander and the Dodgers made a deal for Yu Darvish. However, this doesn’t mean contending teams are obligated to make a blockbuster acquisition at the deadline. In some cases marginal improvements or staying quiet at the deadline makes sense and that’s where the Twins should be. Yeah, yeah, I know… “but we need pitching!!” … It’s no secret good pitching is important. News flash though, the Twins already have excellent pitching. Berrios, Perez, and Odorizzi are a very solid front end of a rotation. There’s likely not a single GM that would scoff at Kyle Gibson as their number four starter. Pineada from what he’s shown so far is the weak link in the rotation, but that’s generally always the case with your number 5 starter. Also, in his defense he’s pitched in less than ideal weather conditions and is still building up his stamina after missing a year and a half. It’s reasonable to expect him to be at least a little better than he has been as the season progresses. So if we’re going to add pitching it likely won’t be to the starting rotation, injuries aside, of course. Bumgarner would be great, sure, but if we’re being honest he’s not any better than the top three guys in the rotation. Do we really want to see the Twins give up prospects to get Bumgarner as a rental when he wouldn’t even be the staff ace? That brings us to the bullpen, everyone’s favorite thing to gripe about. While yes, expectations were low for that group coming into the season they’ve actually performed really well. Taylor Rogers, to his credit, is quietly becoming the next Andrew Miller. I have full confidence in May, Hildenberger, and Parker. Now, this isn’t to say there’s no room for improvement in the bullpen. As I mentioned in a previous post, Will Smith of the Giants would make sense. That’s the type of marginal pitching addition this team should be seeking. No sense in selling the farm for an elite level arm when there’s no glaring need. Now for the lineup. I would hope we can all agree there’s really no need to add a power bat to the existing group. Also, there’s no room to add a guy. With Sano coming back every position is occupied with more than capable hitters. Let’s do ourselves a favor and not even entertain the idea of adding a position player unless the injury bugs jumps out from the behind the curtain and wrecks damage on this squad. Last note regarding the deadline talk, there’s one more thing to keep in mind. Top tier players don’t come cheap at the deadline. Yes, the Twins have a really good farm system but given the way this current roster is constructed it really doesn’t make much sense to sell off some of that organizational depth. The core group of the team is still very young. Berrios, Polanco, Buxton are all 25 or younger. Kepler is 26 and Rosario is the elder statesman at 27. The veteran guys on this team are all on short terms deals. Cruz, Cron and Schoop are one year deals. Marwin Gonzalez is on a two year deal. There will be turnover on this roster and a need to dip into that minor league depth in the not so distant future. This team is built to win now, yes, but they’re also built to win over the next 5 years or so. Maximizing on any opportunity to win is important but so is taking advantage of a multi year window. For all those reasons it would make sense for the Twins to be marginal buyers, if not spectators at the deadline. Quick note on Rosario. I did some digging into his numbers over his recent cold stretch and if the two homers in Toronto don’t indicate it’s a matter of time before he snaps out of it, maybe these stats will. Overall, his GB%, LD%, and FB% has remained around his career average. He’s continuing to produce hard contact at the same rate he always has. His K% for the season is the lowest of his career and his BB% is the highest. Those are all very good sings. The one glaring stat is his BABIP (batting average on balls in play), which has been hovering below .200 most of the year. For reference, .300 BABIP is about league average and for his career, Rosario has been slightly above that number. It’s pretty safe to say his recent cold snap (much like the Polar Vortex) will soon pass and he will begin to heat up again. Hopefully faster than the weather has this spring. Last note regarding Rosario, opposing pitchers have been throwing him a lot, and I mean, a lot more change ups. Once he makes the adjustment to that pitch and gets a little more luck on balls in play he will soon be on another tear. Thank you all for reading and I look forward to your comments!

Kepler* not Keller lol

There’s really not a whole lot of places to add guys right now. Obviously injuries can happen and there could be a need down the line where there presently isn’t one. Let’s focus on the here and now though. When Sano returns every position is somewhat set in stone. Rosario, Buxton and Keller have more than earned their keep. Polanco, Schoop and Cron aren’t going to be replaced. As Dan Hayes outlined in a recent article in The Athletic, the Twins have gotten tremendous value from every catchier on their roster. Pitching is the only area where there’s room to improve. Berrios, Perez, Oodorizzi, with the way they’ve been throwing so far are a very formidable front end of the rotation. Gibson is very much a solid 4 starter on any team. Pineada, as you mentioned as been shaky at best but it’s not too far out of the question that when the weather warms up and he builds more strength he will be a lot more effective than he is right now. Buumgarner would certainly be nice but unless Perez or Odorizzi sudddenly decline it’s hard to say we truly need another top level arm at the front end. That brings us to the bullpen. As I outlined in a recent blog post, their bullpen has been pretty darn good. Yes adding a quality arm or two would help but it depends at what cost. Recent market trends indicate a top level relief arm commmands about a top 50 prospect. You’re certainly not wrong the Twins have a window to win now but you also gotta think about the future of this club too. Cron, Cruz, Schoop are all on one year deals. The core players we have right now are all still young. Rosario (27), Polanco (25), Buxton (25), Berrios (24). This team is built to win now and in the future. If they make the playoffs this year they’re already “ahead of schedule”, much like the 2015 Astros who won it all a coupe years later. Don’t wanna sell the farm to win now when your window is much larger than just this year.

I agree. While they’ve pitched well so far it obviously doesn’t hurt to add another quality arm or two. It’s just a mater of at what cost. The Indians gave up a top 50 prospect for Brad Hand. The Cubs gave up Gleyber Torres for Chapman and the Indians gave up Clint Frazier for Andrew Miller. The Twins pen isn’t so terrible where they need to sell the farm for an elite arm. That’s why I like Will Smith.

Rosario has also ran into some bad luck at the plate. I think his average is a little misleading. His current BABIP is .177 which is absurdly low. That’s definitely a product of some bad luck when he’s putting balls in play. He’s still making good contact and not striking out a ton. Eventually he’ll start having more balls in play drop in for knocks.