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Entering the 2025 season, the Twins were expecting great things from Matt Wallner. “The Pride of Forest Lake” had a 143 wRC+ (.251/.366/.500) in just over a full season’s worth of games, showing enough promise that the Twins were willing to part with longtime right fielder Max Kepler. He even took over one of Kepler’s primary spots in the batting order as the team’s leadoff hitter to start this season and rewarded the organization’s faith in him by hitting .263/.373/.474 (138 wRC+) until he was sidelined by a strained hamstring on April 15th. 
From his return to the active roster on May 31st to July 2nd, Wallner looked more like Joey Gallo than classic Wallner. While the power was still present (.244 ISO), his batting average plummeted (.156), leading to a 77 wRC+ and for calls to demote him to Triple-A. However, it was notable that his struggles did not coincide with an increase of strikeouts. A big man with big power, striking out in over 30% of his plate appearances has been the tradeoff for being a threat to go deep every time he steps up to the dish. While a slump to start the 2024 season included striking out in over half of his plate appearances, this season’s decline featured a strikeout rate just below 30%. Wallner’s problem wasn’t a lack of contact, it was a lack of hard contact. 
The good news is that Wallner appears to have righted his ship without taking a detour to St. Paul, as he’s been hitting .239/.340/.522 (139 wRC+) in his last 15 games. What’s puzzling is that a big part of Wallner’s game is still missing, though.
During his 2023 season, Twins Daily writer Matt Braun labeled Wallner a “Hit By Pitch Savant.” At the time the article was written, “Cement Bones” had amassed 12 plunkings in just 49 games, and finished with 13 in 76 games. Despite only appearing in roughly half of the season’s games, his hit-by-pitch tally was just 2 behind Donovan Solano for the team lead, who achieved 15 while needing 58 additional games. Wallner’s 2024 season was similar as he was drilled 16 times in just 75 games, yet once again was only good for second place as Willi Castro accumulated 21 in over double the playing time.
If that wasn’t enough evidence, his rate of beanings is where Wallner really shined. While he’s not atop any hit-by-pitch leaderboards because of his injuries and slumps taking away playing time, he’s still rivaled his contemporaries when we look at his ratios. From 2022-2024, Ty France led MLB with 68 hits-by-pitch, which equals 1 HBP per 6.4 games, or 1 HBP per 26.7 PA. Here, we see the Top 10 (or 11, as there’s a 3-way tie for 8th) over Wallner’s first three partial seasons.
MLB Hit By Pitch Leaders by Volume, 2022-2024
Player
Games
Plate Appearances
Times Hit By Pitch
G/HBP
PA/HBP
Ty France
438
1813
68
6.4
26.7
Andrés Giménez
451
1806
60
7.5
30.1
Mark Canha
404
1511
58
7.0
26.1
Randy Arozarena
458
1947
51
9.0
38.2
Willson Contreras
322
1340
49
6.6
27.3
Pete Alonso
476
2038
46
10.3
44.3
Jonathan India
373
1597
45
8.3
35.5
Anthony Rizzo
321
1344
44
7.3
30.5
Willi Castro
394
1436
41
9.6
35.0
Luke Raley
277
933
41
6.8
22.8
Isaac Paredes
407
1593
41
9.9
38.9
But when we look at his games played per hit by pitch and plate appearances per hit by pitch, that’s when Wallner enters the chat. 
MLB Hit By Pitch Leaders by G/HBP, 2022-2024 (min. 60 games)
Player
Games
Plate Appearances
Times Hit By Pitch
G/HBP
PA/HBP
Leo Jiménez
63
210
16
3.9
13.1
Matt Wallner
169
580
31
5.5
18.7
Ty France
438
1813
68
6.4
26.7
Willson Contreras
322
1340
49
6.6
27.3
Luke Raley
277
933
41
6.8
22.8
Mark Canha
404
1511
58
7.0
26.1
Anthony Rizzo
321
1344
44
7.3
30.5
Zach Neto
239
931
32
7.5
29.1
Andrés Giménez
451
1806
60
7.5
30.1
Luis Urias
212
758
27
7.9
28.1
 
MLB Hit By Pitch Leaders by PA/HBP, 2022-2024 (min. 60 games)
Player
Games
Plate Appearances
Times Hit By Pitch
G/HBP
PA/HBP
Leo Jiménez
63
210
16
3.9
13.1
Tim Locastro
81
113
7
11.6
16.1
Matt Wallner
169
580
31
5.5
18.7
Bradley Zimmer
109
117
6
18.2
19.5
Luke Raley
277
933
41
6.8
22.8
Tyler Freeman
206
637
25
8.2
25.5
Mark Canha
404
1511
58
7.0
26.1
Ty France
438
1813
68
6.4
26.7
Josh Harrison
160
539
20
8.0
27.0
Willson Contreras
322
1340
49
6.6
27.3
Returning back to Matt Braun’s 2023 article about Wallner, he pointed out that Wallner gets hit in two primary locations by doing one simple trick: It’s either his elbow or his lower legs, and it’s because he simply does not get out of the way. Regarding his elbow, he even seems to stick it in the path of the ball while also appearing to get out of the way. 
This season, The Minnesota Moose hasn’t been as much of a ball magnet. While he’s still shy of his 76 games in 2023 and 75 games in 2024 and thus his volume of hit by pitches should be expected to be lower, his rate of plunkings has dropped precipitously. 
Matt Wallner Hit By Pitch, MLB Career
Season
Games
Plate Appearances
Times Hit By Pitch
Games/HBP
PA/HBP
2022
18
65
2
9.0
37.5
2023
76
254
13
5.8
19.5
2024
75
261
16
4.7
16.3
2025
61
222
3
20.3
74.0
Anecdotally, I don’t recall seeing Wallner suddenly develop an aversion to wearing one from a pitcher, so I was puzzled when I discovered his dropoff. My instinct was to check if he’s being pitched differently than in years past, which turns out to be true (the images below are from the catcher’s view). 
2023
2024
2025



As you can see in the 2025 image, not only is Wallner seeing fewer pitches off the plate inside (the right of the zone in the pictures), he’s seeing fewer pitches outside the zone, period. This is confirmed by his 2025 zone percentage (the percent of pitches seen inside the strike zone) being the highest of his career. It might seem that challenging a power hitter like Wallner is a recipe for disaster, but we have to remember that swinging hard often comes with a fair number of whiffs, too, of which Wallner has not improved. (MLB average zone% is 52.4% and average z-contact% is 85.6% in 2025). 
Matt Wallner Zone% and Zone Contact% By Year
Year
Zone%
Z-Contact%
2022
47.9
68.8
2023
49.5
73.1
2024
48.4
72.2
2025
53.8
70.9
While getting hit by pitches may seem accidental, we have to remember that some players show that it is indeed a skill, such as Ty France and Willi Castro. Wallner was demonstrating the same in the past, but pitchers are also pitching inside the zone more to take away one of his weapons. Fortunately, he’s countered the loss of HBPs by boosting his walk rate to a career-high 11.3%, so he’s still finding ways to get on base even when the hits and hit-by-pitches weren’t coming.
It seems like Wallner might be getting himself out of his most recent slump, and returning to being a threat at the plate will probably lead to more pitches out of the zone and thus more chances to demonstrate how he got the moniker “Cement Bones.” Regardless, I think all of us (and perhaps Wallner himself, too) would prefer to see him rack up hits and home runs more than fastballs to the elbow pad and breaking balls to his lower body. 
 

Maybe I'm just bored at work, but I thought it might be good to have a blog where we track the MLB players traded, see the returns, and see how that effects what the Twins might, should, or could do. Here's a start with the first 3:
Ryan McMahon to Yankees - Rockies traded 3B McMahon to Yankees for LHP Griffin Herring (Yankees #17, 45 FV grade) and RHP Josh Grosz (not in top 30). McMahon is a much better fielder than Castro, Castro a much better hitter (112 OPS+ to 92 wRC+).  Suggests Castro is worth one top 20 prospect and a flyer. Actually sounds about right. Does take the Yankees off the board as a trading partner for Castro. I don't know about you but I'm not in favor of helping the Yankees anyway.
Gregory Soto to Mets - Orioles trade LHRP Soto to the Mets for RHP Wellington Aracena (20, somewhere between 14 and 25 in Mets system) and Cameron Foster (26, unranked power RP just moved up to AAA, maybe close to majors). Foster is a power guy who dominated AA but off to a slow start in AAA: could be a decent MLB middle reliver soon. Aracena throws 97+ with shaky command at the A ball level but profiles as a possible late inning reliever if he can refine his control. Not a bad haul for the rental Soto. Coloumbe is older than Soto but much better this year. Maybe we can get a better headliner prospect that's doing well in AAA plus a flyer like Aracena for Coloumbe. Do it if we can. 
Josh Naylor to Mariners - DBacks traded 1B Naylor to Seattle for rookie left-hander Brandyn Garcia and pitching prospect Ashton Izzi. Naylor has a 123+ OPS, Ty France 85+ and Naylor is a better 1B. No comparison. Garcia was Seattle’s 11th-round pick out of Texas A&M in 2023. He ranked 13th among Seattle prospects at MLB Pipeline and 19th at Baseball America. Izzi, 21, is a long-term development play. He pitched well in Low-A last season but has struggled to a 5.51 ERA across 12 starts in High-A this year. In other words, 1 top 20 and a flyer. France will be lucky to get us the flyer. Trade him for whatever you can get. 
Returns so far make me optimistic that we might actually be able to get some quality prospects for both Castro and Coloumbe. Still prospects though, none of whom are MLB ready this year or probably next year. I would trade Coloumbe for a similar or better return and maybe try to re-sign him in the off-season. I would try to re-sign Castro now and if not, also trade him for the same or a better return and follow the same path in the off-season. 
What do you guys think about the return and how it impacts the Twins? Would you make similar deals?

I think a great "soft sell" move would be the Twins trading 1 or 2 of Martin, Julien,  Miranda to Oakland for Luis Severino.
Severino is having a perceived bad year, He actually has value.
His split are solid away from that minor league ballpark the As play in, with an ERA of 3.03 on the road vs. 6.68 at home. while he is not a strikeout machine, he i slimiting hitters to a .212 avg on the road vs .303 at home.  Giving up .820 OPS at home but just .605 on the road.
He just signed a 3 year $67M deal this past offseason.  Part of the reason for that is the league mandate that Oakland had to spend to a certain threshhold.
I am sure MLB woudl frown on them just trading to slash salaries after that mandate, but they couldnt block a deal based on "baseball sense" 
 
So lets say Twins send 1-2 of Julien, Martin, Miranda to Oakland for Severino where Twins take on 100% of remaining salary this year, but Oakland retains 50% the next 2 years.
 
That would basically mean the Twins get Luis Servino on a 2 year deal (after this year at an average of $12M per). 2 years at $24M total would be a great sign as a FA signing of a pitcher of Severinos potential!!
If we get the "away" version of Severino for that money that is a STEAL!!!
Oakland is not contending this year, and most likely nto until they move to Vegas which is still not until 2028.  There is ZERO need to have Severino on the roster, and he wouldn't have been if they weren't forced to spend.
 
Would Severino be better than... Paddack? Zebby? Fest? Bullpen Game?  I think so!!
 
and next year with a rotation of Lopez, Ryan, a potentially healthy Ober, Severino, would be a great base for a new ownership group to play with.
And none of Martin, Julien, Miranda, etc will be part of the future anyways.
 
Build for the future without "selling" now.
 

As we go through the annual Trade Deadline Speculation-Fest, we are all aquiver about the haul we might receive for Duran, Jax, Ryan, etc.  That's understandable, they should fetch handsome returns if traded.
However, to me, I wonder if we're asking the most important question -- what are our playoff chances in 2026?
As this is written, Baseball Reference gives us an 8.6 percent chance of making this year's playoffs. I'm not giving up on this year's team but the objective part of me realizes that our chances are slimmer than an airbrushed cover model.  So, if we trade Castro, Bader, Coulombe, etc., I'm not going to like it but it is justifiable, certainly.  
However, the question I'd like you to answer is, what do you think of our playoff chances in 2026?  Here's our projected roster as we sit today:
Catcher -- Jeffers 
1B -- Clemens
2B -- Keaschall 
SS -- Correa
3B -- Lewis
utility -- Lee
OF -- Buxton, Larnach, Wallner
We would need to add a catcher, another infielder (a right-handed bopper at first base would be extremely helpful), and a couple of outfielders (ditto on the big bopper).  Where those come from are the topics for the hot stove league -- our current fringe players, the guys in AAA, free agents, etc.
Starting pitchers -- Pablo, Ryan, Ober, Zebby, SWR, Festa
Relievers -- Duran, Jax, Varland, Stewart, Sands, Topa
Actually a surplus of one starter, but we know they'll all be needed.  The additional two relievers are hot stove fodder as well -- AAA, free agents, etc.
In broad strokes, IMO we have enough pitching.  We need to add one or two above-average bats (I'm thinking .280 hitters with 20+ HR potential), which I'm thinking is not unrealistic.
Back to the question -- do we have enough be a contender in 2026?  My answer is yes, which means we DO NOT trade away our controlled 2026 key pieces.  
Now, inquiring minds want to know.  What do you think -- do you see us as 2026 playoff contenders right now, do we stand pat with our 2026 key pieces or trade them away?

Luckily we play in the AL Central, but is the Twins window of opportunity to contend slamming shut?
What will this team look like next year?  and no I am not looking to next year already!!  hehe, I am looking at next year to help determine what moves should be done at the trade deadline THIS year.
our FA after this year...
Joey Gallo (should be released anyways, but no way he is back next year)
Max Kepler (see above)
Michael Taylor.. HE has been a great signing, maybe we resign if cheap, but as of now a FA
Kenta Maeda 
Sonny Gray No chance he comes back.
Basically our entire starting OF and 40% of the rotation.  Granted Ober, Ryan, and Lopez are a good 3 to build around.
SO who do we have "plug -n-play" for OF next year?  cross fingers Buxton can play OF, Hope Wallner can show he is the real deal. Larnach hasn't been able to be consistent over long run, can Austin Martin get healthy and fulfill his promise? even if Emmanual Rodriguez can get things going in the minors he is still a bit off. Could we move AK to OF if we can upgrade 1b?? maybe but optimal.
My philosophy is SPEED SPEED SPEED!!!  OS my move at the deadline this year is to go after young near MLB ready prospects. This brings me once again to Jordyn Adams. His bat is finally coming around over the last year and a half, albeit at a hitter friendly ballpark. But a .264 avg and an .817 OPS with 33 steals against just 3 CS. he is a Gold Glove Calibur CF who could replace Taylor as the insurance against Buxton, and if Buxton can play CF, then we slide Adams to LF... or would a move to LF help Buxton????  his RH bat helps balance our lineup.
You put Adams in at #9 and potentially Royce Lewis at leadoff, and you have 2 burners back to back. You can really start playing some games with those two in order.  This works both this year and into the future,  This year can have Adams/Castro LF  Taylor/Adams CF, Wallner RF.
 
And Adams shouldnt cost TOO much... how about we send Kuechle and either Gallo or Kepler if they will take them.

After a long, harsh Minnesota winter, Spring Training offers and a glimpse of green grass and the hope of a successful Twins season. The Twins’ time in Florida is like any trip to the Sunshine State—some visitors leave with a golden tan, others depart with bad sunburn. As the team prepares to head north, here are my winners and losers from the Twins’ Spring Training. Let’s start with the guys who got burned.
Losers
1. Kenta Maeda
Spring Training stats should never weigh heavily in player evaluations, but when a veteran pitcher like Maeda returns from 19 months of Tommy John rehab, his performance will be scrutinized. Despite a solid outing today, Maeda’s spring has been mediocre. He has posted a 4.91 ERA in 14.2 innings, issuing 10 walks, striking out 14 batters, and showing inconsistent fastball velocity. These numbers aren’t awful, yet with Bailey Ober, Louie Varland, and Simeon Woods-Richardson all seeking a spot in the rotation, Maeda’s grasp of the fifth starter role grows looser. King Kenta will need to regain his pre-injury form quickly or risk being relegated to a diminished role.
2. Trevor Megill
Megill’s arm talent is undeniable. His fastball consistently touches 100 MPH and advanced metrics show that his breaking pitches are competent. Unfortunately, the on-field results never seem to match the underlying metrics (much like his bullpen mate Emilio Pagán). Megill entered the spring with a shot at a bullpen role with the Twins, then struggled to a 10.80 ERA and 2.10 WHIP before being demoted to Triple-A on March 19. Twins fans will probably see Megill again this season as he will be one of top relief options available in St. Paul, yet it’s fair to wonder how many second chances Megill will receive.
3. Gilberto Celestino
2023 is the most important season of Gilberto Celestino’s career. That is a strange statement considering Celestino played 122 games with the Twins last season and will likely spend most of 2023 in Triple-A. However, given Celestino’s limited minor league experience (only 75 career games above High-A), this season at Triple-A is critical for his maturation as a player. The thumb injury Celestino suffered early in camp required surgery, putting his development plan on hold while he is out until late April. Missing one month isn’t catastrophic, but finger injuries can linger. If Celestino rushes back or suffers a setback, his long-term development will pay the price.
Winners
1. Edouard Julien
Despite all the praise that top prospect Brooks Lee garnered in Fort Myers, Julien is undoubtedly the Twins prospect whose stock has risen the most this spring. Across seven games with the Twins and four games with Team Canada in the World Baseball Classic, Julien is hitting .394 (13 for 33) with five homeruns and six walks. His advanced approach at the plate looks MLB-ready, mixing patience with power. The Twins’ infield depth and questions about Julien’s defensive home created a roster crunch that resulted in Julien being optioned to Triple-A on March 14, but Julien’s performance this spring shows that he is ready to contribute at Target Field.
2. Kyle Farmer
Farmer’s solid Spring Training—an OPS of 1.052 and four homeruns—has flown under the radar as health questions about Alex Kiriloff, Jorge Polanco, and Jose Miranda have dominated Twins infield storylines. The 31-year-old Farmer is a six-year veteran, so a good month of March doesn’t change his projected upside, but he is a “winner” here because he will leave Fort Myers poised to parlay his hot bat into important at-bats for the Twins. His infield counterparts Polanco and Kirilloff are starting the season on the Injured List, meaning Farmer will play a critical role in the Twins’ early-season success. If Farmer keeps hitting, the Twins offense will get a massive boost and Farmer could become a valuable trade chip to fill an everyday role on another team.
3. The Twins Front Office
There are plenty of valid questions about the Twins’ offseason moves. Will Joey Gallo rebound from his terrible 2022 season? And did the team need another left-handed hitting outfielder? How will the offense replace the bat-to-ball skills of Luis Arraez? etc. Regardless, one thing is clear this spring: this Twins roster is deep. Yes, Jorge Polanco and Alex Kiriloff are starting the season on the IL, however the Twins have starting-caliber replacements in Kyle Farmer, Donovan Solano, and Nick Gordon. Typically, exclusively DH-ing a Platinum Glove winner like Byron Buxton would wreck a team’s defense, but the Twins adding recent Gold Glove winners in Michael A. Taylor and Joey Gallo minimizes the defensive decline. And Bailey Ober, probably the odd man out of the Twins’ early-season starting rotation, has yet to allow a run this spring and continues to look like a fourth starter in a competent MLB rotation. Not to mention the prospect reinforcements waiting at Triple-A. All said, Spring Training has shown that this front office deserves credit for building the deepest Twins roster in recent memory.
...
Thanks for reading! I'm interested to hear your thoughts and your winners/losers of the spring.