Twins Fan From Afar

Great data. Funny . . . or telling . . . how it all correlates.

CDog, thanks for the clarification on that ground ball single -- like I said, I didn't see it, but was just going off of something one of the SEA or MIN writers had penned.

I love that Hamels, the veteran, was so concerned with teaching the rookie Harper a lesson, and then completely stopped paying any attention to Harper, who was dancing about 30 feet off of third base by the time he broke to steal home.

 [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xtyQYSXbRKc/T6fBiL8aLDI/AAAAAAAAAUY/9XBCELyGchk/s320/JM2.bmp [TD=class: tr-caption]Since taking a foul tip to the knee last week, Joe Mauer hasn't been the same [/TD] [/TABLE]  [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] Since Joe Mauer dinged his knee taking a foul tip on April 29, he has not been the same player. Yes, he missed only one game, which is a testament to the fact that he is resolute in his desire to to play this season. That, especially when compared to the way Mauer and the organization dealt with his injuries last season, should be commended. But what about the product on the field? Last week, I wrote about Mauer's ground ball rate -- specifically, the fact that we should keep an eye on the frequency of his ground outs second base as a possible indicator of his health. To sum up that post: In Mauer's 2009 MVP season, he hit into the 4-3 putout 12.2 percent of the time; in 2011, when he was injured, but before being placed on the disabled list, that figure was 26.3 percent. And as of last Tuesday's game (when I wrote the post), that number was 18.2 percent. The last four games (since I wrote the post about the ground ball rate) have not been good offensively for Mauer, and that has me worried. Take a look at his Fangraphs game log, and tell me if you don't agree. In 16 plate appearances (14 at-bats because Mauer walked twice), Joe has 1 hit -- an infield single to shortstop. He has grounded out to second base 6 times in those 14 at-bats, including one double play grounder. Only 4 balls have left the infield -- all flyouts. And -- possibly the worst sign for Mauer -- not a single line drive. Horrible numbers from our former MVP and team leader. His percentage of at-bats that result in grounders to second is now at just under 21 percent on the season. I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill. In Mauer's defense, Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez pitched 2 out of those 4 games, and they are, of course, very good pitchers. And the sample size is still small. But don't we expect more from Mauer against good pitchers (than we do, say, Drew Butera), and isn't that a fair expectation? Deep down, don't you think that something is wrong with Mauer -- i.e., that the knee is really plaguing him and that he's just grinding out at-bats? Admittedly, I didn't watch this weekend's games, but from what I listened to on the radio, they described Mauer as "cautious" when he was running. For those that are still stuck believing that Mauer's best -- or only -- value to this team is as the starting catcher for the next several years, this is what we have to look forward to. Yes, there are going to be weeks-long and months-long stretches of great baseball from Mauer, even if he remains at catcher forever. But there are also going to be stretches where his legs and knees are so banged up that he can't get any power into his swing. Aside from that "clutch" infield single (which I read could have been ruled an error), Mauer hasn't provided very much value to the Twins in the past week. This isn't my rally cry to move Mauer from catcher immediately and forever, as much as it is a recognition -- maybe the fifth or eighth or tenth recognition in the past several years -- that, as he ages, Mauer's best "value" to the Twins is being healthy and on the field, regardless of the position.

 [TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-xtyQYSXbRKc/T6fBiL8aLDI/AAAAAAAAAUY/9XBCELyGchk/s320/JM2.bmp [TD=class: tr-caption]Since taking a foul tip to the knee last week, Joe Mauer hasn't been the same [/TD] [/TABLE]  [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] Since Joe Mauer dinged his knee taking a foul tip on April 29, he has not been the same player. Yes, he missed only one game, which is a testament to the fact that he is resolute in his desire to to play this season. That, especially when compared to the way Mauer and the organization dealt with his injuries last season, should be commended. But what about the product on the field? Last week, I wrote about Mauer's ground ball rate -- specifically, the fact that we should keep an eye on the frequency of his ground outs second base as a possible indicator of his health. To sum up that post: In Mauer's 2009 MVP season, he hit into the 4-3 putout 12.2 percent of the time; in 2011, when he was injured, but before being placed on the disabled list, that figure was 26.3 percent. And as of last Tuesday's game (when I wrote the post), that number was 18.2 percent. The last four games (since I wrote the post about the ground ball rate) have not been good offensively for Mauer, and that has me worried. Take a look at his Fangraphs game log, and tell me if you don't agree. In 16 plate appearances (14 at-bats because Mauer walked twice), Joe has 1 hit -- an infield single to shortstop. He has grounded out to second base 6 times in those 14 at-bats, including one double play grounder. Only 4 balls have left the infield -- all flyouts. And -- possibly the worst sign for Mauer -- not a single line drive. Horrible numbers from our former MVP and team leader. His percentage of at-bats that result in grounders to second is now at just under 21 percent on the season. I don't want to make a mountain out of a molehill. In Mauer's defense, Jered Weaver and Felix Hernandez pitched 2 out of those 4 games, and they are, of course, very good pitchers. And the sample size is still small. But don't we expect more from Mauer against good pitchers (than we do, say, Drew Butera), and isn't that a fair expectation? Deep down, don't you think that something is wrong with Mauer -- i.e., that the knee is really plaguing him and that he's just grinding out at-bats? Admittedly, I didn't watch this weekend's games, but from what I listened to on the radio, they described Mauer as "cautious" when he was running. For those that are still stuck believing that Mauer's best -- or only -- value to this team is as the starting catcher for the next several years, this is what we have to look forward to. Yes, there are going to be weeks-long and months-long stretches of great baseball from Mauer, even if he remains at catcher forever. But there are also going to be stretches where his legs and knees are so banged up that he can't get any power into his swing. Aside from that "clutch" infield single (which I read could have been ruled an error), Mauer hasn't provided very much value to the Twins in the past week. This isn't my rally cry to move Mauer from catcher immediately and forever, as much as it is a recognition -- maybe the fifth or eighth or tenth recognition in the past several years -- that, as he ages, Mauer's best "value" to the Twins is being healthy and on the field, regardless of the position.

I updated my "adopted prospect" page accordingly. Sucks for Wimmers; sucks for Twins fans.

The news was already announced elsewhere on TwinDaily, but Wimmers has a partial UCL tear. Definitely not good news. Surgery is not scheduled now, but who knows. Per La Velle: http://www.startribune.com/sports/twins/blogs/150307955.html

[TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EANbn5dkhPo/T6PQ2x-FxrI/AAAAAAAAAUM/Zzb2q6T9Bn0/s1600/Safeco.bmp [TD=class: tr-caption]The Twins have not realized much success in Seattle lately [/TD] [/TABLE] [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] There are some teams that, for no reason in particular, the Twins seem to struggle against on the road. No, I'm not talking about the Yankees or the Rangers here; I can list some solid explanations for the Twins' lackluster performances against those teams. I'm talking specifically about the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners, usually bringing up the rear of the AL West, seem to turn it on when they play the Twins at Safeco. Here's a recent history of the Twins-Mariners season series: Last season, the Twins were 3-5 in their season series against Seattle (1-1 at Safeco). Our good team from 2010 managed a 6-4 record (3-4 at Safeco), our 2009 team went 5-5 (1-2 at Safeco), and the 2008 Twins went 5-4 against the Mariners (2-4 at Safeco). You have to go back all the way to 2007, when that year's Twins team went 6-3 against Seattle, and had a 5-1 record at Safeco, in order to find the last time that we posted a winning season series at Safeco. If you add it up, the Twins are 7-11 at Safeco in that 2008-2012 period, against a team that is usually among the worst in baseball. Just for reference, here is Seattle's winning percentage each year from 2007-2012: .543; .377; .525; .377; .414; .407. It's curious. Yes, Seattle has had some great pitchers over the last few seasons, like Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda, who are always formidable opponents. So it's never going to be an "easy" road series when you draw King Felix. And yes, Safeco is known as a pitchers' park -- but so is Target Field, where our 2010 team went 3-0 against the Mariners. I wonder what it is about Safeco that's bogging down the Twins? On paper, Safeco would seem to be a match for most Twins teams: good for our "pitching to contact" philosophy and large gaps for our speedy hitters -- much like Target Field. But for whatever reason, it hasn't translated into success. Most years, I stay up to watch the Seattle games, and am left at the end of the series feeling like the Twins missed an opportunity to gain some ground. Just generalizing -- they really seem to scuffle at the plate in Seattle. Whatever it is that has prevented the Twins from realizing much success at Safeco these past few seasons, hopefully the fact that we have several new players this season, like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit, will bring about a change in the way the Twins play the annual Seattle series. Or, perhaps I should just hope that we get at least one base hit tonight.

[TABLE=class: tr-caption-container] http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-EANbn5dkhPo/T6PQ2x-FxrI/AAAAAAAAAUM/Zzb2q6T9Bn0/s1600/Safeco.bmp [TD=class: tr-caption]The Twins have not realized much success in Seattle lately [/TD] [/TABLE] [Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] There are some teams that, for no reason in particular, the Twins seem to struggle against on the road. No, I'm not talking about the Yankees or the Rangers here; I can list some solid explanations for the Twins' lackluster performances against those teams. I'm talking specifically about the Seattle Mariners. The Mariners, usually bringing up the rear of the AL West, seem to turn it on when they play the Twins at Safeco. Here's a recent history of the Twins-Mariners season series: Last season, the Twins were 3-5 in their season series against Seattle (1-1 at Safeco). Our good team from 2010 managed a 6-4 record (3-4 at Safeco), our 2009 team went 5-5 (1-2 at Safeco), and the 2008 Twins went 5-4 against the Mariners (2-4 at Safeco). You have to go back all the way to 2007, when that year's Twins team went 6-3 against Seattle, and had a 5-1 record at Safeco, in order to find the last time that we posted a winning season series at Safeco. If you add it up, the Twins are 7-11 at Safeco in that 2008-2012 period, against a team that is usually among the worst in baseball. Just for reference, here is Seattle's winning percentage each year from 2007-2012: .543; .377; .525; .377; .414; .407. It's curious. Yes, Seattle has had some great pitchers over the last few seasons, like Felix Hernandez and Michael Pineda, who are always formidable opponents. So it's never going to be an "easy" road series when you draw King Felix. And yes, Safeco is known as a pitchers' park -- but so is Target Field, where our 2010 team went 3-0 against the Mariners. I wonder what it is about Safeco that's bogging down the Twins? On paper, Safeco would seem to be a match for most Twins teams: good for our "pitching to contact" philosophy and large gaps for our speedy hitters -- much like Target Field. But for whatever reason, it hasn't translated into success. Most years, I stay up to watch the Seattle games, and am left at the end of the series feeling like the Twins missed an opportunity to gain some ground. Just generalizing -- they really seem to scuffle at the plate in Seattle. Whatever it is that has prevented the Twins from realizing much success at Safeco these past few seasons, hopefully the fact that we have several new players this season, like Josh Willingham and Ryan Doumit, will bring about a change in the way the Twins play the annual Seattle series. Or, perhaps I should just hope that we get at least one base hit tonight.

You can view the page at http://twinsdaily.com/content.php?502-Wednesday-Minor-League-Daily

The Twins conclude their 3 game series against the Angels tonight. Here's the link to the TwinsDaily game thread. Hopefully Liam Hendriks can right the ship for Minnesota, without Justin Morneau (who hopefully will be back for Friday's game against Seattle) and Danny Valencia (back stiffness). It would be good not to be swept by the Angels. It would also be good to keep Albert Pujols from doing any damage. It's not looking good so far (6-0 Angels in the 4th, and the Twins have no hits), but perhaps this team can turn it around. In any event, I'll be asleep by the time the Twins game concludes, so here's a recap of Wednesday's minor league action: ROCHESTER 1, SCRANTON-WILKES BARRE 2 This was a defensive struggle. The Red Wings only managed 5 hits all night. Ben Revere, Matt Carson, Rene Tosoni and Ray Chang (who stole his second base of the season) all had singles, and Brian Dozier hit his 7th double of the season. Dozier, whose hit scored Revere, accumulated Rochester's only RBI tonight (11th of the season for him). Dozier is now batting .283 on the season, for those keeping close tabs. Pitching was a bright spot for Rochester tonight. Cole DeVries was charged with the loss (0-2) but was effective tonight, going 6 and 1/3 innings and allowing 6 hits and 2 runs, but striking out 4 and and walking none. Deolis Guerra, suddenly one of the brightest pitching prospects in the entire Twins farm system, pitched 1 and 1/3 innings in relief, allowing 2 hits, but striking out 3. He's allowed no runs at AAA. Tyler Robertson accounted for the other 1/3 of an inning, and struck out the only batter he faced. Although it was a tough loss for Rochester, the pitching performances were encouraging. NEW BRITAIN 5, HARRISBURG 4 New Britain has been involved in many close contests lately. Tonight, they eeked out a victory against the Harrisburg Senators. Chris Colabello, an 8-year independent league baseball player until 2012 (primarily with the Worcester, MA Tornadoes), had a great night offensively. He went 2-for-5 for New Britain, with his 5th home run of the year, a 3 run shot in the third inning with two outs. Wilkin Ramirez and Pedro Florimon each had two hits, including a double, Estarlin De Los Santos picked up 2 singles, Evan Bigley had a run-scoring single and a walk, and Nathan Hanson had a sacrifice fly. Definitely a team effort on offense. De Los Santos stole his 5th base of the season. Aaron Hicks was 0-for-3 with a walk, was caught stealing, and is batting .268 on the year. Andrew Albers got the start for New Britain tonight. The bad: he gave up 3 home runs and 4 runs on 7 hits. The good: he lasted 6 innings, issued 0 walks, and struck out 5. The bullpen was better, though. Bobby Lanigan pitched 2 and 1/3 innings, gave up 0 runs, allowing 3 hits and striking out 1. Luis Perdomo picked up the win tonight (2-2), tossing 1 and 2/3 innings, allowing 1 hit and striking out 1. New Britain is now 17-9. FT. MYERS 2, PALM BEACH 1 In another defensive contest, the Miracle edged out the Palm Beach Cardinals in a pitchers' contest that went 11 innings. First, the offense. The Miracle only accumulated 5 hits all night, but it was just enough to get the win. Daniel Rohlfing was 1-for-4 with a double and an RBI (his 10th of the season), top prospect Oswaldo Arcia, playing right field today, was 1-for-5, and drove in Ft. Myers' other run. Arcia is batting .263 on the season, and has driven in 5 runs. Andy Leer (a double), Michael Gonzales and Josmil Pinto had the other Ft. Myers hits. The pitching was excellent tonight. Pat Dean got the start, and went 7 full innings, allowing 1 run on 7 hits. He struck out 3 and walked 2, and his ERA stands at a respectable 3.68. Bruce Pugh went 3 innings and picked up the win (1-2) in relief for the Miracle. He allowed 2 hits and 2 walks, but kept the Cardinals off the board when it mattered. Lefty -- and Minnesota native -- Cole Nelson earned the save tonight, allowing 1 hit and 1 walk, but striking out 1 in a scoreless 11th inning. BELOIT 6, CEDAR RAPIDS 5 It was a see-saw night in Cedar Rapids, but the Snappers prevailed. There were some very good offensive performances tonight. Miguel Sano led the way, going 3-for-5 with a double (6th of the year) and 2 RBIs (23 on the year). Adam Bryant was 2-for-5 with a double (3rd of the year) and 2 RBIs (12 on the year). Weng-Wei Lin was 2-for-4 with a walk, and first baseman Rory Rhodes was 2-for-4 with his first home run of the season. Matthew Koch and Adam Pettersen also contributed hits for Ft. Myers. Matthew Summers go the start for Beloit, going 5 innings and allowing 3 runs -- only 1 earned -- on 6 hits; he struck out 2 and walked 3. In relief, Ryan O'Rourke got both a blown save and the win, pitching 2 innings, allowing 2 runs -- only 1 earned; he struck out 2 and walked none. Corey Williams picked up the save (his 4th of the season), tossing 2 scoreless innings, striking out 2 and walking 1. One big issue tonight for Ft. Myers was defense. As you can see from the pitching lines above, only 2 of the 5 runs allowed were earned. The Miracle committed 4 errors tonight. Sano had 2 -- one throwing and one fielding (7 on the season); Summers had an error on a pickoff (2nd of the season); and Rosario had a fielding error (8th of the season). Clearly, the team could use a little work on fielding. But that's what the lower levels of the minor leagues are for -- player development. ----------- Players of the day for Wednesday, May 2 Hitter of the day: Chris Colabello [ATTACH=CONFIG]841[/ATTACH] Pitcher of the day: Pat Dean [ATTACH=CONFIG]842[/ATTACH] ----------- A look ahead: Thursday, May 3 schedule Rochester @ Scranton Wilkes-Barre -- LHP Lucas French New Britain @ Harrisburg -- RHP Steve Hirschfeld Ft. Myers @ Palm Beach -- RHP Madison Boer Beloit @ Cedar Rapids -- LHP Matthew Tomshaw ----------- If you have any questions or comments, leave them here, and I'm sure Seth will answer them.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] One of the more common Joe Mauer complaints in Twins Territory is that he grounds out to second base, and does it a lot. This phenomenon was on display last night in Anaheim, when Mauer was retired on a 4-3 putout in each of his three at-bats. And if you go back to his last plate appearance on April 29, before his day off against lefty C.J. Wilson, Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play. That marks 4 straight at-bats in which Mauer has been retired on a grounder to second. As we all know, everything with Mauer is viewed under a microscope -- some things fairly, and others unfairly. It's become common to bemoan these outs. On the one hand, a weak grounder to second base, repeated time after time, is frustrating output from your #3 hitter that you expect to hit the ball hard, and often in the air. On the other hand, though, we all know that Mauer's swing is best when he's hitting line drives and hard grounders, and many of these 4-3 putouts this season have been well struck -- it's just that they were within range of the second baseman. Some of this, too, is perception versus reality -- much like I noted last week with respect to Mauer's clutch hitting ability: some Twins fans are now on the lookout for Mauer groundouts to second base. In his brief time before he hit the disabled list in 2011, it seemed like grounding out to second was all that he did, so perhaps there's reason for the fan concern. Let's see what the numbers suggest. For purposes of consistency, a ground out to second also includes an error charged to the second baseman on a Mauer grounder, as well as a fielder's choice grounder to second where Mauer reached, and of course a grounder to second that started a double play. Thanks to Fangraphs, I can tell you that Mauer has grounded out to second base 18 times in 99 plate appearances thus far in 2012. That corresponds to roughly 18.2 percent of the time. This season, Mauer has grounded out to second more often that he has lined out or flown out to left and center field, combined (13 times). Interestingly, Fangraphs indicates that Mauer hasn't once flown out or lined out to right field all season. Is that possible? The fact that the groundouts seem to come in bunches -- 4 in his past 4 plate appearances as I mentioned, 2 in a row on April 17 against CC Sabathia, and 2 in a row on April 18 against Hideki Kuroda -- certainly doesn't help Mauer's case with respect to fans' perception of the frequency of Mauer 4-3 plays. For comparison, let's look first to Mauer's grounders to second in that brief period of time in 2011 before he was placed on the disabled list. Keep in mind when evaluating these numbers that he was suffering from bilateral leg weakness, and perhaps even Lyme's Disease and a broken heart. In 38 plate appearances, Mauer hit into the ol' 4-3 10 times, which translates into 26.3 percent. A smaller sample size, indeed, but if your perception was that Mauer was grounding out to second more frequently, you were correct. 3 of the groundouts also came in succession. Now let's look at Mauer's 2009 MVP season. In 606 plate appearances in that historic season, Mauer grounded out to second 74 times, which corresponds to 12.2 percent. This number probably makes sense to you: my recollection of 2009 is that Mauer hit the ball in the air at a higher rate -- not just the home runs, but the doubles, as well. So, after the first month of the 2012 season, Mauer, at 18.2 percent is roughly in-between his 2009 4-3 putout rate (12.2 percent), and his 2011 rate (26.3 percent) that he compiled while playing injured. The takeaway from these numbers is that, yes, a Joe Mauer groundout to second base has been a common occurrence in 2012, more prevalent than when Mauer was playing his best baseball. And it's probably always going to be the most common method of retiring Mauer. But even in 2009, Mauer was still hitting into the 4-3, or the 4-6-3, over 10 percent of the time. For 2012, if Mauer can start to turn into line drives just a few of those balls that are currently grounders, he'll see that batting average creep up, and the 4-3 percentage go down closer toward that 2009 figure. On the other hand, though, if that 18.2 percent suddenly hits 25 percent, I'm going to begin to wonder how Mauer's body is handling the grind of catching, and if his lower body is as strong as it should be.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] One of the more common Joe Mauer complaints in Twins Territory is that he grounds out to second base, and does it a lot. This phenomenon was on display last night in Anaheim, when Mauer was retired on a 4-3 putout in each of his three at-bats. And if you go back to his last plate appearance on April 29, before his day off against lefty C.J. Wilson, Mauer grounded into a 4-6-3 double play. That marks 4 straight at-bats in which Mauer has been retired on a grounder to second. As we all know, everything with Mauer is viewed under a microscope -- some things fairly, and others unfairly. It's become common to bemoan these outs. On the one hand, a weak grounder to second base, repeated time after time, is frustrating output from your #3 hitter that you expect to hit the ball hard, and often in the air. On the other hand, though, we all know that Mauer's swing is best when he's hitting line drives and hard grounders, and many of these 4-3 putouts this season have been well struck -- it's just that they were within range of the second baseman. Some of this, too, is perception versus reality -- much like I noted last week with respect to Mauer's clutch hitting ability: some Twins fans are now on the lookout for Mauer groundouts to second base. In his brief time before he hit the disabled list in 2011, it seemed like grounding out to second was all that he did, so perhaps there's reason for the fan concern. Let's see what the numbers suggest. For purposes of consistency, a ground out to second also includes an error charged to the second baseman on a Mauer grounder, as well as a fielder's choice grounder to second where Mauer reached, and of course a grounder to second that started a double play. Thanks to Fangraphs, I can tell you that Mauer has grounded out to second base 18 times in 99 plate appearances thus far in 2012. That corresponds to roughly 18.2 percent of the time. This season, Mauer has grounded out to second more often that he has lined out or flown out to left and center field, combined (13 times). Interestingly, Fangraphs indicates that Mauer hasn't once flown out or lined out to right field all season. Is that possible? The fact that the groundouts seem to come in bunches -- 4 in his past 4 plate appearances as I mentioned, 2 in a row on April 17 against CC Sabathia, and 2 in a row on April 18 against Hideki Kuroda -- certainly doesn't help Mauer's case with respect to fans' perception of the frequency of Mauer 4-3 plays. For comparison, let's look first to Mauer's grounders to second in that brief period of time in 2011 before he was placed on the disabled list. Keep in mind when evaluating these numbers that he was suffering from bilateral leg weakness, and perhaps even Lyme's Disease and a broken heart. In 38 plate appearances, Mauer hit into the ol' 4-3 10 times, which translates into 26.3 percent. A smaller sample size, indeed, but if your perception was that Mauer was grounding out to second more frequently, you were correct. 3 of the groundouts also came in succession. Now let's look at Mauer's 2009 MVP season. In 606 plate appearances in that historic season, Mauer grounded out to second 74 times, which corresponds to 12.2 percent. This number probably makes sense to you: my recollection of 2009 is that Mauer hit the ball in the air at a higher rate -- not just the home runs, but the doubles, as well. So, after the first month of the 2012 season, Mauer, at 18.2 percent is roughly in-between his 2009 4-3 putout rate (12.2 percent), and his 2011 rate (26.3 percent) that he compiled while playing injured. The takeaway from these numbers is that, yes, a Joe Mauer groundout to second base has been a common occurrence in 2012, more prevalent than when Mauer was playing his best baseball. And it's probably always going to be the most common method of retiring Mauer. But even in 2009, Mauer was still hitting into the 4-3, or the 4-6-3, over 10 percent of the time. For 2012, if Mauer can start to turn into line drives just a few of those balls that are currently grounders, he'll see that batting average creep up, and the 4-3 percentage go down closer toward that 2009 figure. On the other hand, though, if that 18.2 percent suddenly hits 25 percent, I'm going to begin to wonder how Mauer's body is handling the grind of catching, and if his lower body is as strong as it should be.

I might try to catch his next start in New Britain. He was great tonight!

I commented before this was put on the front page, so I'll repeat here: Thanks for the great post! Strangely, this is the stuff that interests me the most. As fans, we all see the on-the-field stuff, but most of us have no idea of what day-to-day life is like, especially for you guys living with host families. Good luck on the road trip!

Thanks for the great post! Strangely, this is the stuff that interests me the most. As fans, we all see the on-the-field stuff, but most of us have no idea of what day-to-day life is like, especially for you guys living with host families. Good luck on the road trip!

This was a really good read, and I laughed. If you were being serious, well, then, I also laughed!

I'm sensing a little Beloit bias in the players of the day! Just kidding, great report!

Yes, because those Spring Training stats are such fantastic indicators of regular season performance. Just ask Francisco Liriano.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] I've been thinking about this question lately. Baseball farm teams are, by nature, really interesting. General managers don't set the rosters, or even acquire the players. And I bet if the Rock Cats GM gets a call from Terry Ryan suggesting that he play the back-up shortstop because "something may be in the works," the back-up shortstop will get a lot of playing time, regardless of what that does to New Britain's chances. In the minor leagues, the best-performing players often don't last with the team very long, because they are bumped up to the next level. With the Twins' system, we've already seen that take place this year (Lucas French and Deolis Guerra to AAA, Caleb Thielbar and BJ Hermsen to AA to take their places), and we will see it dozens more times this season. So, as fans, how good should we expect our farm teams to be? On the one hand, it's easy to look at things in the abstract and simply say, "for every player promoted, there should be an emerging player ready to take that vacated roster spot." But that's not baseball -- that's not life. Guerra, for instance, was putting up disgustingly good numbers for the Rock Cats; he was undoubtedly their best reliever -- their Glen Perkins. It would be great if Caleb Thielbar could instantly achieve the success that Guerra had in the last part of 2011 and 2012, but that's anything but a given. Similarly, French was arguably the Rock Cats' best starter this season -- their (fill in the blank if the Twins had a good starter). Good starting pitching is tough to replace, and although it seems that BJ Hermsen is ready for the next level, it's doubtful that he will replicate French's stats (French's success at AA should be partially attributed to the fact that he has MLB and AAA experience). I think a better approach, rather than expecting seamless roster transitions, is to expect competitiveness. Some years drafts are going to be pitcher-heavy. Right now, the Twins have a surplus of outfield talent at the MLB level and down on the farm. Over the course of time, it's the responsibility of the front office to have depth at all positions and all levels, but it's difficult to imagine -- on any one day -- having perfect Low-A, High-A, AA, AAA and MLB depth in any one organization. In 2011, Baseball America rated the Kansas City Royals as having baseball's best organizational ranking. The Omaha Storm Chasers, the Royals AAA affiliate, had a 79-63 record last season and won the Pacific Coast League championship. The Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the Royals' AA affiliate, finished 73-64, and won their division championship. The High-A team, the Wilmington Blue Rocks, failed to make the playoffs, going 66-72, good for 6th out of 8 teams in their division. Finally, the Low-A team, the Kane County Cougars, went 65-74, and also failed to make the playoffs. The Royals' farm system is just one team, and just one example, of course. It's interesting, though. Their AA and AAA teams were very good last season, despite the fact that the Royals have several young players, like Eric Hosmer, that have been called up recently. It's notable, though, that their lower level teams were both sub-.500 last season, despite the fact that Kansas City almost always has a very high draft position. So what does this mean for our Twins and their farm teams? I think it's just something to keep an eye on. New Britain, the team I'm following, is 15-9, off to a good start. After going 44-98 in 2010, they finished 72-70 last year, and are on an even better pace now. The Rochester Red Wings are 9-14, still a better pace than they had last year. The Beloit Snappers are 14-11, and the Ft. Myers Miracle are 9-15. Some good so far, and some not so good. The other notable thing about fielding competitive teams throughout the system is that players get used to playing winning baseball. I'm sure you remember the stories from last season about certain young Twins players (Drew Butera, Danny Valencia, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes were all named at various times) that didn't particularly care whether the Twins were winning or losing; rather, they seemed preoccupied with being big league ballplayers. Many of those guys played on awful Rochester and New Britain teams. If you have no expectation of winning each and every game at the minor league level, and your behavior is modified accordingly over the course of several hundred games and thousands of at-bats, why would that automatically change once you get "the call?" I imagine it's difficult for the Twins -- or any organization -- to successfully achieve balance at all levels of the system. That's why the Twins are now having career minor leaguers come in and play at Rochester -- simply to field a competitive team. Hopefully, with several early picks in the 2012 draft, the Twins can shoot up the farm team rankings, and we will, in 3-5 years, see another wave of solid MLB prospects ready to play at Target Field.

[Originally published at Twins Fan From Afar] I've been thinking about this question lately. Baseball farm teams are, by nature, really interesting. General managers don't set the rosters, or even acquire the players. And I bet if the Rock Cats GM gets a call from Terry Ryan suggesting that he play the back-up shortstop because "something may be in the works," the back-up shortstop will get a lot of playing time, regardless of what that does to New Britain's chances. In the minor leagues, the best-performing players often don't last with the team very long, because they are bumped up to the next level. With the Twins' system, we've already seen that take place this year (Lucas French and Deolis Guerra to AAA, Caleb Thielbar and BJ Hermsen to AA to take their places), and we will see it dozens more times this season. So, as fans, how good should we expect our farm teams to be? On the one hand, it's easy to look at things in the abstract and simply say, "for every player promoted, there should be an emerging player ready to take that vacated roster spot." But that's not baseball -- that's not life. Guerra, for instance, was putting up disgustingly good numbers for the Rock Cats; he was undoubtedly their best reliever -- their Glen Perkins. It would be great if Caleb Thielbar could instantly achieve the success that Guerra had in the last part of 2011 and 2012, but that's anything but a given. Similarly, French was arguably the Rock Cats' best starter this season -- their (fill in the blank if the Twins had a good starter). Good starting pitching is tough to replace, and although it seems that BJ Hermsen is ready for the next level, it's doubtful that he will replicate French's stats (French's success at AA should be partially attributed to the fact that he has MLB and AAA experience). I think a better approach, rather than expecting seamless roster transitions, is to expect competitiveness. Some years drafts are going to be pitcher-heavy. Right now, the Twins have a surplus of outfield talent at the MLB level and down on the farm. Over the course of time, it's the responsibility of the front office to have depth at all positions and all levels, but it's difficult to imagine -- on any one day -- having perfect Low-A, High-A, AA, AAA and MLB depth in any one organization. In 2011, Baseball America rated the Kansas City Royals as having baseball's best organizational ranking. The Omaha Storm Chasers, the Royals AAA affiliate, had a 79-63 record last season and won the Pacific Coast League championship. The Northwest Arkansas Naturals, the Royals' AA affiliate, finished 73-64, and won their division championship. The High-A team, the Wilmington Blue Rocks, failed to make the playoffs, going 66-72, good for 6th out of 8 teams in their division. Finally, the Low-A team, the Kane County Cougars, went 65-74, and also failed to make the playoffs. The Royals' farm system is just one team, and just one example, of course. It's interesting, though. Their AA and AAA teams were very good last season, despite the fact that the Royals have several young players, like Eric Hosmer, that have been called up recently. It's notable, though, that their lower level teams were both sub-.500 last season, despite the fact that Kansas City almost always has a very high draft position. So what does this mean for our Twins and their farm teams? I think it's just something to keep an eye on. New Britain, the team I'm following, is 15-9, off to a good start. After going 44-98 in 2010, they finished 72-70 last year, and are on an even better pace now. The Rochester Red Wings are 9-14, still a better pace than they had last year. The Beloit Snappers are 14-11, and the Ft. Myers Miracle are 9-15. Some good so far, and some not so good. The other notable thing about fielding competitive teams throughout the system is that players get used to playing winning baseball. I'm sure you remember the stories from last season about certain young Twins players (Drew Butera, Danny Valencia, Trevor Plouffe and Luke Hughes were all named at various times) that didn't particularly care whether the Twins were winning or losing; rather, they seemed preoccupied with being big league ballplayers. Many of those guys played on awful Rochester and New Britain teams. If you have no expectation of winning each and every game at the minor league level, and your behavior is modified accordingly over the course of several hundred games and thousands of at-bats, why would that automatically change once you get "the call?" I imagine it's difficult for the Twins -- or any organization -- to successfully achieve balance at all levels of the system. That's why the Twins are now having career minor leaguers come in and play at Rochester -- simply to field a competitive team. Hopefully, with several early picks in the 2012 draft, the Twins can shoot up the farm team rankings, and we will, in 3-5 years, see another wave of solid MLB prospects ready to play at Target Field.