Brock Beauchamp
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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp
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In 2009 - I didn't bother researching the rest, the lowest starter had a bWAR of -0.2. That's hardly comparable.
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Just so everyone is clear on this, the only rumors TD "endorses" are in article form written by Nick, Seth, John, or Parker. We neither endorse nor promote community rumors.
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I went back and looked just for the hell of it. In 2012, the Twins had an entire rotation (five guys) of starters who had a bWAR of -0.8 or lower and started 7 or more games. Nick Blackburn "topped" the list with an, I have to admit, ****ing amazing -2.1 bWAR. *gags uncontrollably*
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What's Holding Up The Dozier Trade?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
FTR, I don't believe Dozier is an elite player either but he has an elite skill. -
I knew I should have added a "magnitude of failure" qualifier to that list but decided I didn't want to look up the stats again. Yes, many teams have negative WAR starters... They're often -0.2 or -0.4 WAR or something of that ilk. The Twins had -1 or lower WAR pitchers and several of them over the past five years. It's not only that the Twins pitchers were below replacement level, they were waaaaaay below replacement level and continued to get starts.
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I fully agree that getting only a #4 starter for Dozier would be a failure, I was simply pointing out how De Leon could be more valuable to the Twins while still being mediocre.
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What's Holding Up The Dozier Trade?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yep. It's not as if Dozier suddenly developed power last season. He was already at the top of the class when he was hitting a measly 28 home runs a season. -
What's Holding Up The Dozier Trade?
Brock Beauchamp replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Nick's quote was "elite power-hitting middle infielder", IIRC. That's an accurate description of Dozier. The power-hitting qualifier is the elite part of Dozier's game. -
Back of the rotation starters aren't that easy to find. If they were, the Twins wouldn't have given hundreds of innings to negative WAR starters each season for the past several seasons. Several negative WAR starters. Every. Single. Year. This is gag-worthy but I just checked to be sure... These are the years where the Twins had at least three pitchers start five games or more and posted a negative bWAR: 2012 2013 2014 2016 Three pitchers. At least five games started. Every season. Ish.
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I believe he's saying that, value-wise, De Leon straight-up is likely to give the Twins more actual on-field value. But I don't believe he's advocating a straight-up deal for the players. Let's say De Leon misses the mark and turns into a #4 starter for six years. He'd accumulate something around 14-15 WAR during that time, which would be enormously valuable to the Twins because they're currently throwing negative WAR players into the rotation. On the other hand, Dozier is likely to supply 8-10 WAR while the Twins aren't in contention. In that scenario, De Leon provides more value to the Twins than Dozier would have. To the Dodgers, that scenario would play out in the exact opposite direction. They could use Dozier's 8-10 WAR but have little need for De Leon's 14-15 WAR.
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Fair enough.
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What if my projection includes 162 extra-inning games?
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To the Twins, yes, but that shouldn't be the only consideration to make a deal. It's similar to the concept of always taking the BPA in the draft every June. Rebuilding teams don't gain much from expiring contracts of veterans but how that rebuilding team values that veteran is not universal to all teams. The Twins should be motivated to move Dozier but they shouldn't take whatever the Dodgers offer just because Dozier's two year value to the Twins is expected to be minimal.
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I don't see why this is a problem. It appears both parties are happy with the current situation and will formalize it when the time is right for both parties to do so. In short, who cares? Jansen isn't pitching, the Dodgers aren't playing, and there is no money changing hands. This kind of thing happens all the time in business. Neither the Dodgers nor Jansen are obligated to another team/player so they could wait until pitchers and catchers report and there's no issue at all. Jansen is not obligated to sign with a team by a specific date or even sign at all, for that matter. He can do whatever the hell he wants.
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Yeah, that's the crux of the issue. Both of the interested parties are using reports and data we've never seen and are operating on a level well above our layman analysis. For all we know, both front offices are bickering over some player in rookie ball none of us even considered part of the deal and that's what is holding this thing up for a month.
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Ah, my mistake then. I read that post as if it was claiming Dozier's 2016 wasn't elite, which it very much was.
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While I agree Dozier isn't an elite player - yet, anyway - you're really reaching with a lot of this post. First, Dozier's 2013, for all intents and purposes, should not count as it's partially irrelevant to the conversation at hand (projecting Dozier's worth). It was May of 2013 that he and Brunansky altered his approach and Dozier has been a wildly different hitter since that point. Before the swing adjustment, Dozier had hit around 25 home runs in the entirety of his professional career spanning ~2400 plate appearances. Since that adjustment, he has hit around 110 home runs in ~2300 plate appearances. "he hit 263/.323/.561 which is good but not insane." Whoa, man. Way to set the bar high. True, an .884 OPS is not "insane" but it's really freakin' good, even more so when it comes from a middle infielder. There were all of five qualifying MLB players who play an up-the-middle position and posted a higher OPS than Brian Dozier last season. Last year, Dozier accumulated roughly 6 fWAR in a full season. While I don't believe Dozier is an elite player (yet, anyway), that is absolutely an elite year of play. So it really boils down to how you want to define "elite". Are we talking single seasons or projection of a player's future performance?
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I can't speak for Dave but if Dozier stays healthy over the next two seasons, I think his over/under is somewhere around an 8 fWAR. I think his power spike is legit (probably not 40 homer legit but maybe 30-35 homer legit) but he'll continue to lose on defense and baserunning.
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Cardinals "Very Much In" on Brian Dozier
Brock Beauchamp replied to Seth Stohs's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Yeah, the only outright bust from that group was Worley but May came along in the deal so it was still pretty reasonable. Capps was a dumb trade but Matt Capps was exactly who we expected him to be in 2010. Worley was a bust. May for Revere straight-up may end up being a fair swap. Meyer was buggered by the front office. He was a risk and maybe not a smart risk but the front office and coaching staff did that guy absolutely zero favors in the way they managed him. -
One of the most reasonable takes I've heard on the situation thus far. It's a fair argument from both sides, which is probably why we haven't seen a deal announced yet.
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If Dozier had even back-to-back seasons of 6 WAR, I'd probably consider him elite. If he had three seasons of 5+ WAR, that's definitely elite. It's basically Ian Kinsler. Dozier is a very good player coming off what might be a career year. I can't call him elite quite yet.
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Definitely. Teams, especially ones as smart as the Dodgers, don't hang on to players because they paid a lot for them. They hang on to players because they place a high value on them.
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Don't stay in St Paul unless you plan to do a bunch of stuff in St Paul (which may be the case, there's plenty to do there nowadays). While it's cool the Green Line exists, it's slow as molasses. It's an hour end-to-end from Union Station to Target Field and is only marginally faster than a bus over that same distance.
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True, but the price paid for Alvarez is a good indication how highly the Dodgers value him as a player.
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No, it's not. For Dozier to maintain his current value, he needs to go into the break with an .800 OPS. If he's to exceed his current value, he needs to maintain his 2016 .850+ OPS. I think that's a pretty bad bet unless the Dodgers are being completely unreasonable (which isn't out of the question given Friedman, who may not quite be in the mindset of a "spend all the moneys!!!1" franchise). Well, the .800 OPS may not be a terrible bet. But I sure as **** wouldn't bet on the .850+ OPS.
