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Brock Beauchamp

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Everything posted by Brock Beauchamp

  1. Brock Beauchamp
    And we're sold out!
  2. Brock Beauchamp
    It doesn't concern me much. I think Falvey and (especially) Levine have enough experience to navigate this situation without turning it into a mess. I think what they're implying is that they're not going to pursue a Dozier trade after a specific date but if a team approaches them with an offer they like, they're still open to discussing a trade. As for your trade idea, I'd be satisfied with De Leon and Stewart if I was the Twins. I'd take that deal. It wouldn't thrill me but it seems a fair swap of talent.
  3. Brock Beauchamp
    To be fair, there are loads of other factors that go into a stock price. For example, Netflix missed earnings estimates a few times but explained they had invested loads of money - more than expected - into international operations. While that hurt their bottom line for 1-2 quarters, their stock price stayed flat or even went up because of expected future profits from that investment.
  4. Brock Beauchamp
    I worry about that as well but given the history of the respective parties, I'm inclined to believe it's Friedman who is being the hardass.
  5. Brock Beauchamp
    I generally agree but I simply don't know enough about De Leon to form a real opinion. If Falvey was the only guy involved here, I might be inclined to think the Twins were being unreasonable and that Derek may be taking a hard line to avoid looking bad in front of baseball and the press. But with Levine on board - a seasoned front office veteran from a winning franchise - I'm wondering if it just boils down to the fact Friedman is trying to get Dozier for a song and the Twins aren't going to play his game. Which is one of the reasons why I really liked the idea of picking up a second-in-command with tons of experience in this realm.
  6. Brock Beauchamp
    The way this is shaking out makes me wonder how much the Twins actually like De Leon. It's possible they're asking for more on the back-end because they don't love the centerpiece. And because they can't find a good fit with another team, they're working hard with the Dodgers because they don't have other options. Dunno how I feel about that situation but it's a possibility.
  7. Brock Beauchamp
    We're down to just a handful of tickets remaining so if you want a ticket, order now.
  8. Brock Beauchamp
    No, which is why Dozier starting off 2017 with an .800 or better OPS would go a long way toward establishing a new performance baseline. Right now, he's a .775 OPS guy with an outlier .880 season. That *could* change if he starts 2017 somewhere between his 2016 and 2014-15 seasons. I don't believe Dozier will repeat his 2016 (though it could happen) but it's possible, maybe even likely, he's a better player today than he was during his 2013-2015 seasons. I'm not sure Dozier's value drops much if he goes into the break on a 4.5-5.0 WAR pace. Sure, that's off his 2016 line by quite a bit but it also means trade partners will be more confident he's a way above average bat for the position. But it all depends on the market. It's unfortunate so many contenders already have solid or better second basemen. That's probably the riskiest part of this entire situation. If another team falls out of contention and offers their second baseman opposite Dozier, both players lose value on the market.
  9. Brock Beauchamp
    Dozier was quite good in Sept/Oct, posting an .884 OPS. I don't expect Dozier to duplicate his 2016 season but if he goes into the break with an OPS at or just over .800, I'm not sure his value will change much (like now, it depends on who needs a second baseman and how badly they need one). Dozier doesn't have to replicate 2016 to maintain high value. Right now, 2016 is an outlier season. If Brian starts the season strong, that 2016 becomes less of an outlier and more of the norm. But again, I'd prefer to avoid the risk involved and trade him now for a reasonable return.
  10. Brock Beauchamp
    I generally agree. The pitching staff isn't going to be fixed with one guy. The Twins need others to step forward as well: Berrios, May, Burdi, Jay, Gonsalves, etc. Thankfully, they have the arms coming... They're not spectacular but enough of them could be solid to drag the pitching staff to respectability (though external help is needed as well).
  11. Brock Beauchamp
    While I agree with the general idea here, it appears you're adding a starting pitcher from a baseline of 0 WAR. That simply isn't the case. The Twins had two starters - Duffey and Berrios - that posted a bWAR of -1.6 and -1.7, respectively. That's one of the major reasons I wanted to see a Dozier trade. Even if you get a middling 3 WAR pitcher in return, the net gain is actually close to 5 WAR.
  12. Brock Beauchamp
    I was going from a line of a $15m deal but $10m-12m has similar issues. First, few players are traded on July 1st, which is the rough halfway point of the season. The Twins would likely be on the hook for 60-67% of Bautista's salary, not 50%. Going from a baseline of $12m, that's still a lot of money. If the Twins want to open up the trade partners to all teams, they may need to be open to adding cash to the deal and cash included usually doesn't translate to prospect worth at a 1:1 ratio. The best case scenario is that Bautista goes into the break mashing and the Twins net a top 50-75 prospect, a better prospect than what they would have chosen with the second round pick, though not enormously better. Just... Better. A more sure thing. The worst case scenario is that Bautista is injured/bad and worth nothing. The Twins burn $12m and the first second round pick of the draft. I don't see much upside there and I see a lot of downside. Bautista is going into his age 36 season. He's pretty old in baseball terms.
  13. Brock Beauchamp
    While we may be confident Bautista will hit enough to net a second round pick equivalent, let's not forget that will cost the Twins at least $10m with a peak of $15m-ish if the receiving team needs cash back to make a deal work. It could cost the Twins over 10% of their payroll to pick up a guy just in hopes he'll be good enough to flip for the equivalent of a draft slot they already have banked. That's a terrible risk for something with so little upside (the upside being that if Bautista goes bananas, he'll net more than that second round pick). I'd love to have Bautista on the team but it simply doesn't make much sense on a team trying to figure out what they have in Sano, Park, Vargas, and Mauer.
  14. Brock Beauchamp
    It was my fault. I've been fighting off a cold for the past few days and woke up late this morning. Tickets are now available.
  15. Brock Beauchamp
    Heh.
  16. Brock Beauchamp
    If the Twins didn't have the first pick, I'd agree. But that second round pick is roughly the equivalent of the pick that got them Jose Berrios. It's not something you hand away without pause.
  17. Brock Beauchamp
    It's an interesting question. Is Russia more interested in Trump as president or just screwing with the US whenever they get an itch?
  18. Brock Beauchamp
    Well, this is a bummer but I guess you take the cards dealt to you. It's a risk to hold on to Dozier but if the Dodgers are offering 50-70% of his on-field value right now, the risk diminishes quite a bit. It's a lot easier to duplicate 50-70% of Dozier's value in July. And if he's heading toward the break with 20+ homers, then you might just get more for him.
  19. Brock Beauchamp
    Maybe not yet but the ball is just getting rolling here. It's going to be an ugly few months. Each report we see is more damning than the last. That will have to change if Trump is going to get through this unscathed.
  20. Brock Beauchamp
    Holy ****. If this is true... I didn't expect much of Trump but I didn't believe even he could be this stupid.
  21. Brock Beauchamp
    He approves. http://images.complex.com/complex/image/upload/c_limit,fl_progressive,q_80,w_680/577291908_psrfyq.jpg
  22. Brock Beauchamp
    I may steal the headline raffle prize. It's that good.
  23. Brock Beauchamp
    But Nick wasn't attaching value to his statement. He was referring to Dozier's skill set, which includes elite power for his position. And Dozier didn't double his home run total last season. He topped the previous season by 14 home runs, or an additional 50%. Nick's actual statement, for the record: "And here we're talking about Dozier, an elite power hitting middle infielder in his prime with two full years of control remaining." There's absolutely nothing wrong with that sentence. All three statements are true. Dozier is an elite power-hitting middle infielder. He's still in his prime. He has two years of control.
  24. Brock Beauchamp
    I really don't understand what the hell is going on in this thread. Whether you keep or remove Dozier's 2016 home runs, he still leads all middle infielders in homers over the past 3-4 seasons. By that standard - hitting more home runs than anyone else who plays middle infield - he's an elite power-hitting middle infielder. It doesn't matter if he leads by one home run or 20. He's the best at that particular skill and, therefore, elite. I hate to go all pedantic-semantic on the board but jaysus, the definition of elite is "the best in a class".
  25. Brock Beauchamp
    That hair transcends the Hall of Fame.
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