Brock Beauchamp

I generally agree but the current Kirilloff situation shares little in common with what the Cubs did to Bryant. Kirilloff played scrimmage games against the same pitchers all of last season, excluding a single postseason game, and unsurprisingly seems rusty as a result. The Twins also have Rooker, who appears to be more ready in the here and now, though has a lower upside than Alex. Whereas the Cubs blatantly held back Bryant for service time considerations and everyone knew it.

Rooker is also a lot older, has a full season at AA, half a season at AAA, and played a handful of MLB games before getting injured last season. Kirilloff certainly has a (much) higher ceiling than Rooker but there are plenty of reasons to go with Brent to open the season.

Going into Spring Training, I suspect the Twins were leaning away from Kirilloff making the roster and him not hitting certainly doesn't help his case, though I'm not sure how much it hurts, either. All in all, I suspect the default plan was for Rooker to make the roster over Kirilloff. It's hard to keep them both on the same 26-man, at least to open the season. And Alex probably hasn't changed any minds in that regard, factoring in his lack of hitting or not. Which is too bad because with the AAA season pushed back, it means he won't be getting the reps he needs (along with everyone else who needs reps after not playing in games that matter since September of 2019).

Almost certainly. I'm not even convinced it will happen at all this season. Which is really unfortunate because I'm super excited to take the family to at least one, hopefully more, Saints games this season.

Right now, roughly 20% of Minnesotans have had at least one vaccine shot (which, while not 100% effective, one shot is a big immunization in itself). It's the ninth of March. And the scale is only ramping up, there's a good chance we're at 30%+ of the entire population getting at least one shot by Opening Day. Instead of arguing about numbers, maybe take a moment to realize how much we've all done (well, some of us) to get to this point and how close we are to the end zone.

Good. I'm not sure what numbers we should be opening up in or how quickly, but it's time to start moving that direction. At some point, we need to tear the band-aid off and live our lives again. I don't know if that should start to happen in April or June but it's going to happen soon.

Someone with extensive experience writes up this lengthy explanation of the process, including why it’s so difficult to predict timelines due to government bureaucracy and a pandemic, and this is your response?

Polanco was also the walking wounded most of last season. It’s not a given that he’s healthy again but there was something obviously wrong with Jorge in 2020 and I hope he’s past it now.

I believe Maeda will regress, which I’ve said many times. What I don’t believe is that he will revert back to his career numbers with the Dodgers because “fluke season”.

Holy crap, what does BP have against Kirilloff? That's a huge gap between the next lowest and BP in the top 100 rankings.

Shaddup, you. Edited and fixed for obvious reasons.

LOL I completely forgot about 2017. Sigh.

I was hoping to get to watch him live in St Paul some time later this year. Well, that's the Twins for ya. When's the last time they had a heralded prospect make it through the minors and into the majors without a significant injury along the way? I fully expect Alex Kirilloff to be killed by a falling blimp any day now.

This won't happen because a lying idiot can spread the virus just as readily as an honest idiot. The goal is containment of the virus, not containment of liability for private organizations. America is already extraordinary at the latter, we don't need any additional nudges in that direction, while we're pretty bad at the former and need considerable help in that regard.

I generally agree about putting untested draftees high on a list but putting Sabato eighth on the Twins list feels like a pretty conservative move. The system is deep but not particularly top-heavy. Sabato is ranked below a few guys who won't even make a top 100 prospect list this year.

Except all the things I mentioned are actually trackable, measurable changes, not Spring Training puffery nonsense (but nice job conflating the two things). They’re right there on his Fangraphs page if you care to look for them.

The way I see it, the problem here is that you continue to grade Maeda's 2020 season using only the most superficial stats and a gut feeling, while ignoring what he actually did to improve over past seasons. It has been widely written about and discussed that the Twins changed his approach to batters, particularly use of his changeup to opposite side hitters. But to dig into the stats... this is out of all qualifying pitchers in MLB last season: FIP - 10th K% - 8th BB% - 4th Combine the K/BB into K-BB% and Maeda comes in fourth in all of baseball, only behind literally the best pitchers in the game last season (in order: Bieber, deGrom, Bauer). Last season, Maeda improved on swing percentages in the zone and swing percentages outside the zone, while reducing contact (sometimes drastically) on those same swings. According to Fangraphs, every pitch type he threw last season with any regularity was positive value, which is pretty extraordinary and speaks to his control and command. Long story short, the Twins took Maeda's pitch combination and when/where to throw them, tweaked them pretty heavily, and as a direct result, Kenta improved in almost every measurable way over his previous career numbers. Is Maeda due to regress in 2021? I mean, probably... because almost all pitchers who pitch that well for a stretch are due to regress a bit. Will he regress to his career norms? Unlikely, because we can establish actual changes made and the corresponding improvement that went along with it. This wasn't a lucky season nor did he pitch over his head.

I'm not sold on 2021 Kenta being quite as good as 2020 Kenta but he made trackable changes to his approach and the underlying numbers reinforce the idea he'll be a better pitcher going forward than he was with the Dodgers. And I just don't understand why Twins fans seem so reluctant to acknowledge that he's probably going to be very good again this season. I can't remember the last time I saw fans of a team ignore a quality starting pitcher on the team while screaming "we need an ace!!!!11" all day, every day.

The Twins have made the postseason in 2017, 2019, and 2020... and Byron Buxton has 6 career postseason plate appearances. Sigh.

I don't know if "disappointing" is the right word. Last season, Thorpe lost 2mph from his fastball and I have no idea why. If that velocity returns, he could go right back to being a good prospect. If this is him going forward, that's a real bummer for the guy because he can't survive in MLB with 89mph stuff. Did anyone ever explain why his stuff was so dismal in 2020?

Hmm. I was hoping for more of a sure thing but I guess this is fine for the fifth starter role.

I don't even really know Bauer's politics and I've never heard much discussion of them. But what I do know is that he's something of a jerk online (while often being apolitical) and is quite a polarizing figure in past clubhouses. That doesn't mean I don't want him on my team but any reservations I have about his character aren't about "politics", they're about inviting a loud-mouthed person many feel is a jerk into a clubhouse.

*raises hand* I wouldn't. Not because Bauer isn't a better player - he is - but because "two years for the same price as four" isn't how money works. Bauer would absolutely cripple the Twins' ability to go out and get Cruz, Simmons, Happ, or other players. The price of Bauer per season is basically Cruz + Donaldson + Simmons, give or take a couple of million. I'll take those three good+ players over one great+ guy that doesn't have an amazing track record. Bauer took it to an entirely new level in a 60 game season. There's evidence to back up he'll be a better pitcher going forward but I'm skeptical that his "1999 Pedro" season in a shortened pandemic season is what we'll see going forward, at which point that $40-45m cost starts to really sting a mid-market team.

I don’t know who is more accurate, I’ve never checked, but Vegas’ goal isn’t accuracy, it’s to split the bets.

Um... Wade had over 100 plate appearances with the Twins over the past two seasons so...