What To Do With Michael Tonkin

On the down side, Tonkin has a 5.17 ERA and has been unusable against lefties, as they are hitting .292/.380/.642 off him going into Thursday's game (Victor Martinez added a three-run homer to Tonkin's lefty woes).You'd think a changeup guru would help Tonkin develop that pitch to better neutralize southpaws (looking at you, Neil Allen).

Tonkin can rack up strikeouts, but bad things happen when he allows contact. This season he's inducing fewer grounders (48.8% coming into 2016 vs. 34% this season), giving up more line drives (18.9% vs. 26.4%) and more of his fly balls are leaving the park (11.3 HR/FB vs. 15.4).

If you want to shut the book on Tonkin based just on those numbers, I can't blame you. But, looking deeper into the numbers and taking into account how he's been used, there may be some reason for hope.

On the plus side, Tonkin is improving in some crucial areas. He's boosted his strikeout rate (7.55 entering the season to 9.91 in 2016) while lowering his walk rate (3.02 vs. 2.87). Also, both his contact percentage (76.3) and swinging strike rate (11.1) are career highs by a large margin.

One thing that hasn't been in Tonkin's favor that's out of his control is the way he's been used. He's recorded at least four outs in 23 appearances and pitched two full innings or more nine times. He's appeared in every inning but the first and his 1,233 pitches thrown ranks 7th among 140 qualified relievers.

He's Paul Molitor's mop-up man, and the role has not suited him well.

Through his first 25 pitches of an outing, Tonkin has limited opponents to a .786 OPS, but once he has eclipsed the 25-pitch mark, it spikes to a 1.128 OPS. He's also giving up a .957 OPS when pitching in games where there is at least a four-run margin (which was the case when he allowed the V-Mart homer on Thursday afternoon).

Obviously, one way to get out of that mop-up role would be to perform well enough that you get promoted to late-inning work, but Tonkin hasn't inspired confidence to rationalize that kind of jump. But he continues to be used in a role that doesn't appear to suit him and, surprise, he continues to underperform. It's not too different from the lose-lose situation Trevor May has been in the last season and a half.

With a new set of evaluators set to take over the front office, maybe Tonkin's role will be adjusted in 2017. Or maybe he'll be jettisoned off the roster and be evaluated in an entirely new organization.

Things haven't gone the way I'm sure Michael Tonkin had hoped in 2016, but I wouldn't be surprised with a new, more specialized role and a different pitch mix he could find success next season.

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