Coming Soon: Starting Pitching (But How Soon?)

Unfortunately, there aren’t really AAA starting pitchers that are ready yet. There are three guys in Chattanooga who have fans talking, and for good reason. They may not be ready today, but in a month, it could be a different story.

The Lookouts have had three starting pitchers who have been really good in the past month or so. Today we’ll talk about them and try to figure out if they are close to being ready to contribute in 2017, or if we’ll have to wait.

Fernando Romero

The hard-throwing righty who was chosen the Twins #1 prospect by Twins Daily before the season has been solid for the Lookouts. In 14 games this season, he is 7-5 with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. In 78.2 innings, he has given up 70 hits, walked 30 and struck out 76. These are solid numbers, especially when you consider that 84% of his batters faced this season have been older than he is. He won’t turn 23 until Christmas Eve.

In his last six starts, he is 5-0 with a 1.16 ERA and a 1.01 WHIP. Opponents are hitting .183/.266/.282 (.548) off of him in that stretch.

We know about Romero’s stuff. He’s got a big fastball that sits 95-96 and touches 98 at times. He’s got a terrific slider that can be devastating at times. He also has worked on his changeup, which remains inconsistent, but it’s something he really works at.

The nice thing has been seeing improvement. Opponents’ OPS against him by month shows it. Opponents posted an .656 OPS off him in April, then .632 in May, and so far he’s at .617 in June.

Last year, he was shut down at 90.1 innings (Between Ft. Myers and Cedar Rapids). Let’s assume he threw another 25 innings in extended spring training. That’s a total of 115 innings. If there are some who subscribe to there being concern when a young pitcher throws more than 25% more innings from year-to-year, then Romero should be shut down when he reaches about 143 innings in 2017. He is currently at 78.2 which means he has approximately 60-65 innings to work with before the end of the season. If he averages six innings, he could make 10-11 more starts which puts them right to playoff time.

Romero was added to the 40-man roster last November and is on his first option year. One way to keep or control his innings may be calling him up to the Twins as a relief pitcher for the last month or two of the season, if the Twins are competing. There may also be value in having him pitch in the Southern League playoffs if the Twins are out of contention at that time.

Felix Jorge

Jorge turned 23 years old in January, a little over a month after being added to the Twins 40-man roster. The Twins were able to sneak him through a Rule 5 draft a year earlier, but would have lost him had he not been protected this year. He had a strong season in 2016 between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga.

After a slow start this year, Jorge has taken off. Overall in 14 starts, he is 8-1 with a 3.26 ERA and a 1.30 WHIP. In 85.2 innings, he has given up 89 hits, walked 22 and struck out 61. Seventy percent of his batters faced have been older than him. Like Romero, Jorge has continued to put up better numbers each month. The OPS against him in April was .853. In May, that dropped to .705, and in June so far, it’s just .676.

While he is not a strikeout guy, Jorge attacks the strike zone. He has a good three-pitch mix and is able to throw strikes with each of them. His fastball sits 91-92 and touches 93. He has a good curve and a good changeup. He will give up some hits because of how many strikes he throws, but he doesn’t hurt himself with walks. He also is able to work deeper into games consistently.

In his last six starts, he is 4-0 with a 2.41 ERA. He’s walked just 1.3 per nine (2.3 overall) and struck out 7.0 per nine (6.4 overall). Oppenents have hit just .178/.229/.326 (.555) off him during that time frame.

Jorge has been remarkably durable and consistent the last three years. In 2017, left-handed batters have hit .272/.320/.411 (.731) off of him. Right-handers have hit .271/.322/.406 (.728).

A year ago, he threw a combined 167.1 innings so he should have no limitations in 2017. If he continues to pitch well, he could make some starts late in the season for the Twins since he’s on the 40-man roster. Again, he can remain in Chattanooga if the Twins are not in contention and pitch in the playoffs for the Lookouts.

Stephen Gonsalves

Gonsalves was the Twins (and Twins Daily’s) choice for Pitcher of the Year in 2016 when he put up remarkable numbers between Ft. Myers and Chattanooga. He was Twins Daily’s #2 prospect in the preseason. He was invited to Twins big league spring training where he impressed until a shoulder injury cost him the last few weeks of spring training and the first six of seven weeks of the regular season.

However, since he has returned, he has been very good. He has made seven starts. He’s 3-3 with a 2.85 ERA and a 0.85 WHIP. In 41 innings, he has given up just 26 hits, walked nine and struck out 51.

The left-hander understands how to pitch and makes quick adjustments even during a game, or within an at-bat. The one concern with him last year, even while dominating at AA, was a high walk total. To this point, he has really reduced his walk rate, down to just 2.0 BB/9.

His fastball has been between 91 and 94 this spring. His changeup is talked about as being great, and it gets swings and misses. He added a slider/cutter before the 2016 season, and that has been a swing-and-miss pitch for him as well. It has also helped him against right-handers. While lefties are hitting .257/.316/.429 (.744) off of him in just 38 plate appearances, right-handers have hit .149/.198/.307 off of him (121 plate appearances).

LAST SIX STARTS

I’m going to post this here again, just so they’re right next to each other:

Jorge: 4-0, 2.41 ERA, 1.09 WHIP, 1.3 BB/9, 7.0 K/9, .247/.279/.361 (.640)

Romero: 5-0, 1.16 ERA, 1.01 WHIP, 3.0 BB/9, 9.1 K/9, .183/.266/.282 (.548)

Gonsalves: 3-2, 2.68 ERA, 0.86 WHIP, 1.9 BB/9, 11.7 K/9, .178/.229/.326 (.555)

0N 40-MAN:

Jorge and Romero

Not on 40-man:

Gonsalves

SUMMARY

After some early-season inconsistency Fernando Romero has been quite strong the last six weeks. He’s been dominant. Opponents haven’t hit him. He’s been keeping runners off base. His stuff continues to improve.

Jorge has been good too. He’s been pretty consistent, and while he doesn’t strike out too many, and gives up some hits, he doesn’t hurt himself.

Gonsalves is a good combination of stuff and stats. He’s left-handed and sitting in the low 90s. He’s got the three-plus pitches. He has come back and started right where he left off.

In my opinion, Gonsalves is the closest to MLB ready. He’s also the one who isn’t on the 40-man roster. Romero is likely the one with the highest ceiling because of the velocity, but he has work to do, pitches to improve. Meanwhile, I think Jorge has to be a step-by-step type. He can become a mid-rotation type of starter, more likely a back-end type. He needs time at AAA whereas you might be able to make a case that Romero and Gonsalves could be guys promoted right from AA.

But then again, two years ago at this time, we all wanted Jose Berrios called up directly from AA Chattanooga, saying that he was clearly ready based on his statistics. Instead, he went to AAA, and for longer than we all thought he should or wanted him to. Just now this year, he has become what we thought he could become. So there is a cautionary tale of us assuming a guy can make the jump from AA to the big leagues… or even from AAA to the big leagues. This game is hard. Big leaguers are really good.

But all three of these pitchers will likely pitch in the big leagues. They have different ceilings, but all three of them will get their time. Like I said, I feel like Jorge could be best served by spending the full season in Chattanooga. I think that Romero should spend the full season starting in Chattanooga, unless the Twins are competing and he can contribute out of the bullpen. With Gonsalves, I think a couple more starts in AA and he should move up to AAA. If the Twins pitching situation isn’t much improved, I could see him making starts for the Twins by early August.

These three are exciting prospects. What do you think their paths should be?

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