Waiting on a Breakout for Minnesota's Young Core

In recent seasons, the Twins have seen some solid offensive seasons from players considered among the team's top prospects at the time. These four batters have been named the organization's minor league player of the year over the last five years. The Twins took all four players listed below in the second round or higher, and three of the four were considered top-100 prospects earlier in their careers. After some struggles at the big-league level, let's examine each player and their future with the Twins. 

Alex Kirilloff, 1B/OF: 2018 Twins Minor League Player of the Year 
MLB Career: .253/.307/.396 (.703), 96 OPS+, 0.4 WAR, 109 G
Entering the 2019 season, Kirilloff was considered among baseball's Top 15 prospects by MLB.com and Baseball America. His rise on prospect lists was tied to a dominant 2018 season when he hit .348/.392/.578 (.970) with 44 doubles, seven triples, and 20 home runs. Projections had Kirilloff developing into a middle-of-the-order hitter that could powerfully spray the ball to all fields. Obviously, wrist injuries have slowed down his ability to produce at the big-league level. The Twins hope his most recent wrist surgery will put him back on a path to being the player many expected him to be five years ago. 

Trevor Larnach, OF: 2019 Twins Minor League Player of the Year
MLB Career: .225/.319/.368 (.687), 93 OPS+, 1.9 WAR, 161 G
Larnach followed Kirilloff's footsteps during the 2019 season with a breakout minor league campaign. At High-A and Double-A, he hit .309/.384/.458 (.842) with 20 doubles, one triple, and 13 home runs. It was easy to imagine Kirilloff penciled into the number four spot with Larnach following him in the five-hole. Larnach has yet to find nearly as much offensive success while climbing the organizational ladder. He has posted a .769 OPS in 27 games at Triple-A, which has risen by over 100 points since his recent demotion. His biggest issue has been making consistent contact with offspeed and breaking pitches. Hopefully, he can rediscover his swing at Triple-A. 

Jose Miranda, 3B/1B: 2021 Twins Minor League Player of the Year
MLB Career: .257/.314/.400 (.714), 102 OPS+, 1.1 WAR, 159 G
Miranda entered the 2023 season with high expectations based on a rookie campaign where he posted a 114 OPS+. Also, his 2021 season was one of the best offensive campaigns in Twins' minor league history, with 32 doubles and 30 home runs. Unfortunately, his offensive performance has struggled to begin the season. In his first 34 games, he has hit .219/.275/.313 (.588) with three doubles, three home runs, and a 22-to-9 strikeout-to-walk ratio. According to FanGraphs, he has been worth -0.5 WAR, and the Twins decided to send him to Triple-A to regain his previous form. 

Matt Wallner, OF: 2022 Twins Minor League Player of the Year
MLB Career: .200/.316/.338 (.654), 88 OPS+, -0.2 WAR, 24 G
Wallner has the smallest sample size with the Twins compared to the other three players because the Twins drafted him more recently. He is the only player yet to appear on a Top 100 prospect list, because of his age and player type. He's been one of St. Paul's best hitters this season with a .857 OPS and nine extra-base hits in 21 games. Kirilloff and Larnach have been ahead of Wallner on the organization's depth chart, but there is a scenario where he can surpass them during the 2023 season. All the other players on this list have been given significant time with the Twins to work through struggles, and Wallner should get that opportunity sooner rather than later. 

Which player has the highest ceiling? Who still has the best chance to impact the big-league roster long-term? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion.