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    Twins Won't Rule Out Trading For Lance Lynn


    John  Bonnes

    He’s a starting pitcher with outstanding underlying numbers that are disguised by pitching in a tough home ballpark. He’s signed to a reasonable deal that keeps him under team control through 2021. He’s recently been made available on the trade market, and I can report that the Twins are “very serious” about him as a potential low-cost addition.

    But would the Twins really consider trading for Lance Lynn?

    Image courtesy of © Bob DeChiara-USA TODAY Sports

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    Lynn, of course, pitched for the Twins last year, and disappointed Twins fans and the organization with a 5.10 ERA. He seemed unwilling or unable to throw strikes. But immediately upon being traded to the Yankees, his control returned as he posted a 4.14 ERA with a 2.17 FIP. Over the offseason, the 32-year-old signed a three-year $30M deal with the Rangers, and has posted a 3.93 ERA and a 3.00 FIP while pitching in one of MLB’s tougher parks. That’s good for an ERA+ of 129.

    That’s a better ERA+ than any of the Twins pitchers other than Jose Berrios. That’s a lower FIP than anyone on the Twins staff. And he’s thrown more innings than anyone in the Twins rotation, too. This is not the Lance Lynn you remember.

    But, geez, just try to forget. Those first pitches out of the zone. The nibbling. The early exits. The dour demeanor….

    There’s no indication that Lynn is anything more than another option the Twins are considering, but given his history, that is news all by itself. Lynn hasn’t been a talked-about option in the Twins Daily forums, while teammate Mike Minor absolutely is. But Lynn clearly should be.

    The situation around Lynn was not that different than it was for Ryan Pressly. He was moved in a trade deadline deal, and thrived with his new team. Over the offseason he got a multi-year deal and continues to produce at a high level.

    But the expectations and narrative around them is totally different. Pressly, who didn’t have much in the way of expectations, is viewed as an organizational failing. The Astros convinced him to do something that the Twins didn’t and turned him into an outstanding trade deadline addition.

    Lynn, however, had all kinds of expectations, and his performance is viewed as a personal, not organizational, failing. He was angry about his contract. He didn’t want to be here. He was unwilling to throw strikes.

    But what If those narratives are incomplete? Or what if they don’t really matter? The simple reality would be that the Twins could acquire a solid #2 starter under contract for 2021, whose only blemish is that he had a rough few months under the old coaching staff. Breaking news: a lot of the Twins starting pitchers had a rough few months under the old coaching staff.

    Do the optics matter here? For how long? If Lynn is the only starting pitcher the Twins acquire at the deadline, from a public relations perspective, they’ll be torn to shreds. It will be worse than if they don’t add any starting pitching at all. Lynn will need to be even better than he has been in Arlington (which should be possible, given the difference in ballparks) to eventually erase that narrative. Hopefully, the reality would eventually overcome the perception.

    The Twins, who we pride as increasingly analytical, might have this one right. Twins Territory (and Twins Daily), who we pride as passionate, might be challenged to take a more objective look.

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    I think he means trading for a controllable pitcher in the offseason, not a free agent.

    Are Stroman level pitchers available at reasonable cost every offseason in trade? There have been some but it sure doesn't seem like it is necessarily an every offseason type thing. And if a team doesn't forecast any that they like being available in this upcoming offseason, that could justify the premium, no?

    To be honest by the time we traded him last year I was disappointed to see him go because he seemed to finally get right after the rust from missing spring training. His success with the Yankees wasn't a shock to me.   And even when he struggled last year, he did a good job beating the average teams that we are going to need to beat down the stretch this year.  I've got more confidence in him consistently beating the Royals or Tigers down the stretch than Perez.  Granted Smeltzer could probably do the same, but he's still a small sample size.   I wouldn't want him pitching a one game wild card against the Red Sox, but that wouldn't be his job either.

    Edited by Hawkeye12

    Fangraphs has the two Mets prospects as 45 FV in the Stroman deal. That's the same as Balazovic, although neither one seems as good as Balazovic -- the older one looks like more of a back-end starter, and the younger one is still a little behind Balazovic.

     

    How does that look as a premium? Stroman had that bad 2018, but logged 5.2 bWAR in 2017 and is on pace for another 5.0 this year. Worse by fWAR, of course, but on pace for a career high 4.6 this year. How easy is it to get that level of pitcher this winter? (And that's not really rhetorical, I am honestly asking and open to input here!)

    Edited by spycake

    Fangraphs has the two Mets prospects as 45 FV in the Stroman deal. That's the same as Balazovic, although neither one seems as good as Balazovic -- the older one looks like more of a back-end starter, and the younger one is still a little behind Balazovic.

     

    How does that look as a premium? Stroman had that bad 2018, but logged 5.2 bWAR in 2017 and is on pace for another 5.0 this year. Worse by fWAR, of course, but on pace for a career high 4.6 this year. How easy is it to get that level of pitcher this winter? (And that's not really rhetorical, I am honestly asking and open to input here!)

    I'm not sure I have an answer to this or your previous post.

     

    I'm just assuming that 1.33 years of team control is going to cost more in prospects than 1 year of team control, theoretically.

     

    You may be right that these types of pitchers aren't traded often in the offseason, but they also aren't often traded to teams well below .500 at the deadline either. I just found it to be an unusual move. Not necessarily that I think it's bad or the wrong move.

     

    I think it might be a little harder to find them in the offseason than you are giving credit for. Depending on the FA market, sometimes there are very few such pitchers, with a lot of suitors, and they can command $50+ mil or even $100+ mil long term contracts. In that sense, getting a single prime year of such a pitcher might be worth the prospect premium. Especially if you like the specific pitcher -- if the Yankees, Astros, etc. trade for him now, you simply can't acquire that pitcher for 2020 no matter what.

    Obviously depends on the premium. I guess we have some evidence now with Stroman going to the Mets...

    I wasn't necessarily only speaking of free agency but also via trade. Stroman isn't an elite arm, it shouldn't be terribly difficult to find someone of his caliber on the offseason market.

     

    But also, Stroman to the Mets...

     

    *facepalm*

    I wasn't necessarily only speaking of free agency but also via trade. Stroman isn't an elite arm, it shouldn't be terribly difficult to find someone of his caliber on the offseason market.

     

    But also, Stroman to the Mets...

     

    *facepalm*

    who was traded in the past couple offseasons, similar to Stroman, at similar cost?

     

    Get players when and where you can. And he could be most likely be flipped at next years deadline if need be.




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