Twins Trade Kintzler To Nationals

His FIP (in a ridiculously small and should never be used seriously sample size) is simply saying that if he continued to pitch at the peripherals that he currently has, you would expect his ERA to settle in at roughly that neighborhood.

 

Flawed? No more than any other statistic. Perfect? Not even close, but doesn't try to be either.

I really don't believe FIP would be even a rough estimate of what Kintzler's ERA would be. In Kintzler's full seasons, his FIP has been within half a run of his actual ERA just once, in 2013. It's primary inputs (BB, K, HR) are all things he tends to have smaller than typical totals of. In other words, his FIP is always going to be skewed by SSS simply because the input data is small.

I really don't believe FIP would be even a rough estimate of what Kintzler's ERA would be. In Kintzler's full seasons, his FIP has been within half a run of his actual ERA just once, in 2013. It's primary inputs (BB, K, HR) are all things he tends to have smaller than typical totals of. In other words, his FIP is always going to be skewed by SSS simply because the input data is small.

I hope that you never used FIP against Santiago.

With the amount of data (almost 300 IP) that Kintzler has I believe that he very likely will pitch better than his FIP (about 0.50 difference).  I tend to not trust low K pitchers but he has been an effective pitcher so far and I don't think someone should expect him to turn into a lemon.

FIP relies on HR rate which stabilizes around 1320 batters faced. It is pretty useless for relievers but starters can get there in two years.

xFIP relies on fly ball rate which stabilizes much quicker at 70 balls in play. This assumes however that pitchers trend to the same HR/FB rate which probably isn't correct.

Comparing to a reliever's ERA is further complicated by pitchers who enter mid inning or leave mid inning where inherited runners are part of the equation. Those factors have no impact on FIP. For a starter where most of their innings are self contained, partial innings has limited impact. For a middle reliever it is significant.

ERA and FIP are virtually useless for relievers. I don't think any conclusion can be drawn from comparing them.