Twins Fantasy Fix (8/20): All About Pablo

I could have gone a few different ways with this week’s column, but let’s be real – Pablo Lopez had to be the focus.

He’s on an amazing run right now (more on that below) and could end up winning the championship for his managers, especially considering his relatively modest ADP. Simply put, he’s been everything the Twins and fantasy players could have hoped for.

Before diving into the Pablo show, I’ll continue to look at under-the-radar options, inspired by this article from a few weeks ago. Today, let’s look at the NL East:

Atlanta: Orlando Arcia (32% ESPN ownership). The Atlanta offense is a machine, and Arcia’s low ownership plus fairly solid stats could be your way to get in on the action.

Philadelphia: Taijuan Walker (33%). Walker has an OK 4.03 ERA and only 106 strikeouts across 131 2/3 innings this year, though he’s managed 13 wins. Backed by a strong offense, he could continue to excel there, and he may be able to lower his ERA after finishing with a 3.49 mark last year.

Miami: Eury Perez (35%). The rookie righty has dazzled with a 2.91 ERA, 1.07 WHIP and 83 strikeouts across 68 innings. While workload restrictions are a concern, Perez’s per-start upside is very high.

New York: Adam Ottavino (4%). When the Mets traded David Robertson, it opened the door for Ottavino to see regular save chances. Brooks Raley is in the mix too, but the righty Ottavino looks like the top option right now, and he’s widely available.

Washington: CJ Abrams (33%). Abrams remains under-owned, as the young shortstop is batting a respectable .250, and he’s supplemented that with 12 home runs and 33 stolen bases. 

Let’s now take a look at some key injury updates, plus which Twins have their stock rising and falling from a fantasy perspective due to results from the past week as well as a prospect to keep an eye on. I’ll also take a look at the week ahead and highlight some matchups to target and avoid.

Twins Injury Updates
Joe Ryan
Expected return: Late August
Ryan made his first rehab start for St. Paul on Friday as he comes back from a groin strain. He looked good, allowing just one run across four innings while logging 71 pitches. His next start could come for the Twins, though that’s not been announced yet.

Byron Buxton
Expected return: September
Buxton has returned to some baseball activity as he recovers from a hamstring strain. A return in September seems possible, and manager Rocco Baldelli indicated that Buxton could return to the outfield for a playoff push. That won’t do much for his fantasy outlook, though it would make many Twins fans happy.

Alex Kirilloff
Expected return: September
Kirilloff doesn’t have a clear timeline for a return, though he has started to hit off a tee. He’s been out for a few weeks with a right shoulder strain.

Willi Castro
Expected return: Late August or early September
Castro is dealing with a mild oblique strain and should be able to return soon. He’s been a valuable utility player for the Twins, though with Royce Lewis and Jorge Polanco both back in the fold, the playing time might not be there for Castro to have a ton of fantasy value.

Stock Rising: Pablo Lopez
ESPN ownership: 97%
I had Lopez in this space last week, but I couldn’t justify going with anyone else. The righty hasn’t allowed a run in his last three starts, a span of 19 innings. His three starts before that weren’t too bad, either, as he allowed just five earned runs over 18 innings. All in all, the good stretch has allowed Lopez to lower his ERA to 3.51, and he’s tied for the AL lead in strikeouts with 187. He’s been the best fantasy pitcher in ESPN formats across the last 15 days and one of the best options all season long. Lopez is entering the Cy Young chat and has been a roster lock for fantasy managers.

Stock Falling: Griffin Jax
ESPN ownership: 1%
Jax is lightly owned, but he had a chance to show some value in deeper leagues as a reliable 1B to Jhoan Duran’s 1A. However, Jax has struggled a bit lately, allowing five runs over 6 1/3 innings this month. At the same time, Emilio Pagan has emerged as a dependable option, and Caleb Thielbar has returned as well. As it stands now, Jax still should have a high-leverage role, though he may not be as consistent of a source of holds and even a few saves with more competition around him.

Prospect Spotlight: Austin Martin (Triple-A St. Paul)
Martin is reintroducing himself as a prospect. The 24-year-old didn’t get off to a great start with the Saints, though he’s been much better lately. Since the middle of July, he’s batting .315 with a .904 OPS across 28 games. If Martin can stay hot, he could be a September call-up, and his ability to get on base and swipe a bag could make him a useful option if he sees regular playing time.

Upcoming Week Matchup Notes
2 Games at Milwaukee (Wade Miley, Corbin Burnes)
4 Games vs Texas (Andrew Heaney, Dane Dunning, Max Scherzer, Jordan Montgomery)
It’s a tough and important week for the Twins, as they’ll face two playoff-caliber teams in their own quest for the postseason. Every starter on the docket has a sub-3.75 ERA as well except for Andrew Heaney, who has a 4.27 ERA and may be worth targeting, though he is a lefty and Minnesota has struggled mightily against southpaws.

Two-Start Starting Pitchers
Bailey Ober is lined up to start Tuesday and Sunday. He’s been good this season but has struggled a bit lately, and he makes for a risky option in standard formats next week, particularly against a tough Texas team that is second in the majors in runs scored.

Twins Fantasy Hitters to Watch
Matt Wallner took a pitch to the hand Friday and sat out Saturday. Thankfully, X-rays did not show any broken bones and he's back in the lineup Sunday, so he should be good to go moving forward. The powerful outfielder is still a bit boom-or-bust at the plate, though he does have four home runs, 13 RBI and an .811 OPS in 13 games this month. His power potential makes him worth watching in fantasy.

Meanwhile, if you believe in targeting Heaney in daily leagues as the weakest starter the Twins will face this week, consider using Correa in that spot, as he’s 8-for-21 all time against the southpaw with three doubles. I’d probably include Royce Lewis in a stack against Heaney as well as Ryan Jeffers, who owns an .801 OPS and .462 slugging percentage against lefties over the last three years. 

How would you describe Pablo Lopez’s fantasy impact this year? Let me know in the COMMENTS, plus post your thoughts on the matchups this week.