Tigers 9, Twins 5: Pitching Falters Again, Detroit Wins Another One

Box Score
Starting Pitcher: Bailey Ober, 5.0 IP, 11 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 1 BB, 9 K (93 pitches, 64 strikes, 68.8%)
Home Runs: Carlos Correa (14), Joey Gallo (18)
Bottom 3 WPA: Bailey Ober (-.330), Jordan Balazovic (-.159), Kyle Farmer (-.144)
Win Probability Chart (via FanGraphs)

Ober is off to a slow start
With a 3.68 ERA (3rd best in baseball) and 13.2 fWAR (2nd best), the Twins rotation establish itself as one of the most dominant in baseball during the first half of the season. In the second half, however, the Twins’ rotation saw a significant decrease in productivity, with an ERA of 4.45 (ranked 15th in baseball). All but one of Minnesota’s starters have had at least one rough start since the All-Star break.

That includes Bailey Ober, roughed up by the Kansas City Royals in his final start of July when he gave up six earned runs in four innings of work, by far his worst start. Ober had been so effective before that only after that start had his ERA gone above three for the first time this season. After an excellent bounce-back start against the Arizona Diamondbacks, he wanted to remain on track with tonight’s start.

But to begin this game, Ober could not prevent Detroit from scoring. Riley Greene drew a four-pitch walk against him in the first, then Matt Vierling singled to put two men on. After striking out Spencer Torkelson for the second out, Ober gave up a single to Kerry Carpenter, and a rare misplay by Max Kepler in right allowed both runners to score.

Correa and Gallo homer, but Ober lets the lead slip away
The Tigers’ early lead was short-lived, as the Twins rallied for three runs in the second. Carlos Correa jumped on the second pitch he saw for a solo home run to center, his 14th of the year. Coming into this game, C4 had a .969 OPS in his previous seven games, and he seems to be heating up at the plate. Tigers starter Alex Faedo managed to get two quick outs after that, but Minnesota did some two-out damage. Ryan Jeffers hit a long double to left, and Joey Gallo went yard for the first time since July 17 to give the Twins their first lead of the night.

But that lead wouldn’t last, either. Detroit scored two more runs after collecting four hits in the bottom of the second and regained a one-run lead. Zach McKinstry and Eric Haase doubled and singled, respectively, and Greene and Vierling hit back-to-back two-out singles to score both runners. It would be the fourth time Ober has allowed four runs or more in a start this season – though one of them was unearned.

Both pitchers settled in briefly, but Ober was in trouble again in the fifth. Torkelson blasted a leadoff home run to right. Now, Ober has given up at least a home run in his last five starts, which hadn’t happened since September 2021. Before the inning was over, Miguel Cabrera hit his second single of the night shortly before McKinstry hit a double to left to put two men in scoring position. Fortunately, Ober got the final out, stranding both runners and keeping this a two-run game.

Twins get within one… but not for long
Faedo departed the game in the fifth, and Minnesota’s offense became more productive. Matt Wallner got hit by a pitch against reliever Brendan White, and then he was waived around third to score a Willi Castro double to left center, putting the Twins again within a run. With great baserunning, the Twins were close to tying the game or even taking the lead: Castro stole third, and later on, after drawing a walk, Jordan Luplow stole second, putting two men in scoring position with two outs. Kyle Farmer fought hard during his at-bat but struck out after six pitches, ending the inning.

Emilio Pagán, who came into tonight’s game posting a brilliant 1.26 ERA over his previous 15 outings, continued his redemption tour by pitching a scoreless 1-2-3 sixth on 14 pitches. He’s prevented opposing teams from scoring in 15 of his last 18 outings. But came the seventh inning, and Jordan Balazovic couldn’t keep the Tiger lineup on a leash. Torkelson smacked a leadoff home run off him to score Detroit’s sixth run. Balazovic went on to give up three singles, allowing Haase to push Jake Rogers across and make it 7-4 Detroit.

Lefty reliever Tyler Holton dominated Minnesota’s lineup for two-plus innings: Twins batters went 0-for-7 with a walk against him. Still, the Twins had a slight chance of rallying back in the ninth if their deficit had remained three runs. However, Balazovic struggled again in the bottom of the eighth, and the game was out of reach. Vierling tripled and then scored on a wild pitch. Torkelson, who had drawn a walk right after Vierling’s triple, scored from second on a Carpenter single.

The Twins put on a fight in the ninth and loaded them up against reliever Trey Wingenter. A.J. Hinch was forced to bring José Cisnero to get the final out. He gave up an RBI single to Kepler that scored the Twins’ fifth run, but he struck out Correa to end the threat.

What’s Next?
Both teams retake the field on Thursday (Aug 10) for the series' final game. First pitch is scheduled for 12:10 pm CDT, with Kenta Maeda (3-6, 4.22 ERA) trying to keep his hot streak alive and Reese Olson (1-5, 4.94 ERA) taking the mound for the Tigers.

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