The Twins Need Bats. The Future of Free Agency is Dim.

Despite my most wishful thinking, Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is now a Blue Jay for life. That’s a good deal for Toronto—as well as the sport of baseball—but it opens up questions for the Twins. While the famed pitching pipeline has been able to flex its muscles, the Twins once again are hampered by a lineup that simply cannot compete with the kinds of bats out there. While Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton will provide strong offense for a few years, the team will may simply need the kind of large investment that other teams have done.

More so, extensions like the one for Vlad or Jackson Merrill of the Padres are becoming more and more common throughout the league. Even hitters without a single day of service time in MLB are locked into team-friendly extensions to secure both their own and the team’s future success.

For the Twins, what does free agency even look like? The obvious answer is likely nothing as we have seen for two straight off seasons. But for this scenario, let’s imagine a Pohlad-less world where the Twins will have some money to spend. And even in one with the Pohlads, the team will see approximately around $30 million coming off the books (though with some likely pricey arbitrations that will likely eat at least a third of that).

But let’s assume that the Twins had $25 million to drop on a free agent going forward. This is where things get trickier than simply “find big hitter.” Here’s a current chart of current top free agent hitters in the near future, the year they reach free agency, and their likely AAV:

This list is likely a little more than what we need, but it also proves a point at what the market will look like. If the Twins are signing a big bopper, the kind due for 40 homer power, you likely are spending no less than the Jarren Duran (the Twins have been in the Luis Arraez business before, and while a fantastic presence at the plate, they simply need a different type of hitter). But a few of the guys above that are approaching their mid-30s by their next free agency. Others like Alex Bregman and Pete Alonso have serious question marks. And I highly doubt the Twins are planning to be in the Kyle Tucker business, who is likely due even more than Guerreo. 

So how can the Twins compete in the hitting department? Some of that will be on the prospects—Walker Jenkins, Luke Keshall, Emmanuel Rodriguez—to develop into true talents (never an easy feat). But more likely, the Twins will have to begin parting ways with their pitching. 

The question is what style of trade will work, and what to pair alongside that. If the Twins continue to disappoint this season and find themselves as sellers, would Joe Ryan or Bailey Ober become obvious candidates? Rather than target a new set of prospects, the Twins could at least try for a pre-arbitration ready slugger. 

Using Ben Clemens’s Trade Value series from 2024, here’s the names that would be useful for the Twins if these teams felt their window was closing. I’ve kept off the names signed to massive contracts, but looked at a mix of pre-arb kids and those under team-friendly extension contracts:

Within this group, you could see some teams willing to get creative. The Astros may finally feel the need to rebuild, and the Twins could use an all time slugger like Yordon Alverez. The Braves might try and close their window and ship of Ronald Acuña Jr. or Michael Harris II. 

But beyond prospects, how much would the Twins have to let go? Consider this challenge trade: Adley Rutschman has essentially three full seasons in Baltimore, and they already have another top catching prospect and a desperate need for pitching. Would they take Zebby Matthews or David Festa (along with Mike Elias’s preferred payroll flexibility) to essentially drive them far into October? Would that cost be enough to get a player that makes it done? And would they be willing to trade now rather than wait till the deadline?

The Twins seem to be in dire help of slugging. Royce Lewis will return, but the question marks all over his injury list have had some of my colleagues discussing a de-centering of his role. And most of all, the Twins have the arms ready to go to, with three full-fledged starters in AAA that seem major league ready. Like the Padres grabbing out Luis Arráez in May from the Marlins, waiting for the deadline can be a sucker’s game. If the Twins want to shake up a team that already looks lifeless, a new bat might make the difference.