2024 Minnesota Twins X-Factors: The Sheriff's Back in Town

Chris Paddack is ready to get back on his horse, pin his badge back on his chest and resume his role as The Sheriff, this time in the Twins’ starting rotation. With his trusty six-shooter reloaded after undergoing major repairs (i.e., a second Tommy John procedure), the 28-year-old is ready to show this town what made him an appealing trade candidate back in 2022. And while the Twins are encouraged by the raw stuff he displayed in the final couple weeks of last season out of their bullpen, they need to be ready to see the good, the bad and the ugly from their promising starter.

Barring a surprising move to acquire another starting pitcher, it looks like the Twins’ rotation picture is mostly solidified. Staff ace Pablo López has his name written in pen atop the depth chart, with Paddack, Joe Ryan, Bailey Ober and Anthony DeSclafani pegged to fill out the MLB starting group in some order (although there's likely to be at least some uncertainty about DeSclafani, at least until we get closer to Opening Day). But how that rotation performs depends heavily on what version of Paddack shows up, and how far his horse can take him this year.

High Expectations
If the Twins get the version of Paddack that they’ve seen on the field in two brief stints since acquiring him, they’ll see a high-energy arm, with excellent raw stuff and a top-prospect pedigree. In five starts upon joining the club in April 2022, he had a 4.03 ERA across 22 ⅓ innings pitched, with 20 strikeouts and just two walks. His numbers under the hood (including a 1.72 FIP) suggest his small-sample success might’ve been legitimate.

Paddack got good swing-and-miss rates from his three secondary offerings (25% from both curveball and slider, and an impressive 30.6% from his standout changeup). He’s also working on adding a cutter to his repertoire to complement his other offerings, especially against right-handed hitters.

When paired with his standout performance upon returning to the mound last September (wherein he pitched a combined 8 ⅔ innings between three regular season outings and two postseason appearances), those skills have Paddack looking primed for a breakout as he tries to reestablish himself as a starting pitcher. And the Twins seem to believe in him, as they’ve stated on numerous occasions that they are counting on him being a force in the rotation despite the fact that he's missed most of the last two seasons. According to manager Rocco Baldelli, just being back with the big-league club could work wonders for Paddack.

"I think just being with the group is going to help him a lot, He hasn't spent a lot of time actually with our team. He's been rehabbing. He's been getting his work in in Florida where he can get the attention that he needed," Baldelli told a scrum of reporters that included Twins Daily's John Bonnes on Monday. "But I think him spending time with his teammates, with our pitching coaches, with our staff is going to help him out a lot. I still think he's probably figuring some of those things out."

If Paddack is able to stay relatively healthy this season, he could try to hit a self-imposed goal of 140-160 innings pitched. It remains to be seen whether that is a reasonable target, but if he can put up something similar to the 4.28 ERA (with 9.2 K/9 and 1.0 BB/9) that he’s displayed in his limited Twins tenure thus far, then the club would gladly take that. 

Possible Challenges
There’s no escaping the uncertainty that comes from returning to game action after undergoing one Tommy John surgery--let alone two. Paddack isn’t the kind of person to shy away from a challenge, but the mind can only go so far once physical limitations take their toll. Now 28 years old, the righty has time on his side as he hopes to reclaim his promising career, but it’s hard to put any stock in him reaching the same peak he was shooting for earlier in his career. 
No matter how much confidence the club can put out to the public, the reality is that Paddack is going to have to miss time at some point in 2024, whether that is due to injury, skipping starts to try and preserve his arm through the calendar year, or giving him a quicker hook in-game.

"We never have hard limits really on almost anyone," Baldelli answered when asked about a potential innings cap to Paddack's season. "But anyone who has been out for that period of time, you just have to be very aware of where they're at, both short-term in a particular start, and longer-term when you look at the bulk of what he's putting on his body."

Determining how much time he’ll need to miss as he ramps back up is going to be key. If he falls much short of his goal of throwing 140 innings, the Twins will need to find somebody to replace him for the rest of the starts from that spot in the rotation. The biggest variable around him might not be his performance, but the size of the innings chunk that the team will need to find elsewhere to round out his place in the rotation.

Fastball velocity is going to be another huge development to keep track of for Paddack going forward. Out of the bullpen last year, he averaged 95.5 MPH on his heater, and his other offerings were very effective when paired with the fastball at that velocity. But he will likely have to rein that in as he moves to a starter’s workload, and it's hard to guess how the rest of his repertoire is affected.

Realistic Outcome
There are a few paths that Paddack and the Twins can take that will lead them to realistic success in 2024. Both sides are going to need to be pragmatic, whether his performance is going better, worse or as-expected. One consideration could be to mostly let it fly (as the team did with Kenta Maeda in 2023), where the club was able to get about 20 starts of solid results (4.23 ERA, 10.1 K/9 and 2.4 BB/9). Of course, they had to navigate a two-month stint on the injured list early on, but upon returning, Maeda rattled off a 16-start stretch in which he had a 3.39 ERA across 85 innings pitched. That type of performance would certainly interest the Twins, but a workload that just barely crosses the 100 innings pitched mark (Maeda totaled 104 ⅓ innings last season) probably falls short of what the club is hoping to get from their pivotal starter this year.

Maybe a more reasonable expectation is to see what he can provide as a starter into July, and hope the Twins can swing a trade for an established, playoff-caliber starter at that stage. If Paddack remains healthy and effective through the trade deadline, it’s a good problem to have. If his raw stuff starts to diminish, maybe they determine whether he needs rest for his recovery, or pivot to another temporary move to a relief role for the home stretch of the regular season. That would effectively limit his inning count, while still providing positive value, especially if he looks as electric in relief as he did in his brief 2023 stint.

What do you think? What are reasonable expectations for Paddack as he returns to the rotation after missing most of the last two seasons? Let us know what you think in the comment section below, and as always, keep it sweet. 

Reporter credit: @John Bonnes