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    Minnesota’s Undervalued Reliever: Griffin Jax Staying in Twins Bullpen for 2025


    Cody Christie

    Griffin Jax is staying in the Twins’ bullpen for 2025. However, the broader baseball community may not have noticed how valuable he has been in recent seasons.  

     

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    This offseason has been filled with speculation about Griffin Jax’s role with the Minnesota Twins. Rumors swirled about possibly moving him back to the starting rotation, following examples set by pitchers like Reynaldo López and Seth Lugo. However, the Twins have put those rumors to rest, at least for now, with GM Jeremy Zoll confirming Jax will remain in the bullpen for the 2025 season. While this decision may have disappointed fans hoping to see Jax take on a more significant role, it’s a smart move that solidifies Minnesota’s bullpen and leverages Jax’s elite skill set in high-leverage situations.

    "It's something we've been working through heavily throughout the offseason with Griffin, his agent, his family, all those things," Zoll said on the Inside Twins show. "As we've worked through all that, our plan is to keep Griff in the bullpen for 2025."

    Jax's Exclusion from MLB’s Top-10 Relievers List
    Despite his stellar 2024 campaign, Jax was left off MLB.com’s recent list of the top-10 relievers in the game. This omission highlights how undervalued Jax remains in national discussions, even as his numbers speak for themselves. He had a 2.03 ERA, a 0.87 WHIP, and 95 strikeouts in 71 innings pitched in 2024. Jax finished with ten saves and allowed just four home runs all year. He was worth 2.8 WAR, tied for seventh-most among all MLB relief pitchers. The Twins clearly recognize his value, even if the broader baseball world hasn’t caught on yet.

    Rotation Depth vs. Bullpen Needs
    The argument for moving Jax to the rotation hinges on his background as a starter and the success other teams have had transitioning relievers into starting roles. However, Minnesota’s current roster construction doesn’t necessitate such a move. The Twins have a wealth of starting pitching depth in the upper minors <knock on wood>, with Simeon Woods Richardson, Zebby Matthews, David Festa, and Marco Raya all projected to begin 2025 at Triple-A St. Paul. This pipeline of young talent provides ample options for the rotation without disrupting the bullpen.

    Conversely, the bullpen is a more pressing area of need. While Jhoan Duran remains one of the game’s most electrifying relievers, the Twins lack proven depth behind him and Jax. Cole Sands emerged as another late-inning option last season, and other young arms could set into a more significant role. Keeping Jax in the bullpen ensures the Twins have two reliable late-inning arms to anchor a unit that is still developing consistency.

    "Obviously, he was tremendously valuable in 2024," Zoll said. "We feel like he's one of the best relievers in the game and feel really good about that role and plan for the upcoming year, and know Griff's excited about that as well."

    The Potential for a Trade
    One wrinkle in this story is the possibility of a trade involving either Jax or Duran. Both pitchers are entering arbitration and will become increasingly expensive in the coming years. Duran will earn $4.1 million in 2025 and Jax will earn $2.4 million. The Twins have not ruled out the idea of moving one of their top relievers if the right deal materializes, though Zoll’s comments suggest such a move is unlikely in the near term. If Jax continues to excel, he could become an attractive trade chip for a team looking to bolster its bullpen. For now, the Twins appear committed to maximizing his value as a reliever.

    Lessons from Around the League
    The Twins can learn from how other teams handle similar situations. The transition of pitchers like López and Lugo demonstrates the value of flexibility and highlights the risks of removing an elite reliever from their comfort zone. Minnesota hopes that Jax’s continued dominance will make such a transition unnecessary, allowing him to remain a cornerstone of their bullpen for years to come.

    "At the end of the day, through the different conversations in the offseason with Derek (Falvey) and Rocco (Baldelli) and Griff and the whole group, we feel like there's a lot of alignment for the upcoming year," Zoll said. "Everyone's in a really good spot with the decision. It's definitely something Griff has thought about and processed. At this point, he feels good about that decision and we're all on the same page for the upcoming year. Not ever ruling anything out for the future, but ultimately think this puts everyone in the best spot for success in 2025."

    As the 2025 season approaches, Griffin Jax’s role in the Twins’ bullpen seems firmly established. His ability to shut down opponents in critical situations makes him vital to Minnesota’s roster. While the debate about his long-term role may persist, the Twins’ decision to keep him in the bullpen is a testament to their confidence in his abilities and commitment to building a winning team. For now, Jax will continue to fly under the radar as one of baseball’s most valuable relievers, even if MLB.com’s top-10 list doesn’t reflect it.

    Should the Twins have moved Jax to the rotation? Is Jax one of baseball’s top-10 relievers? Leave a COMMENT and start the discussion. 

     

     

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    20 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Plus the IL spot(s) that will be needed. The likelihood of all seven being healthy at the end of spring training is a decimal, some number of zeroes and a 1 percent. 

    Still, there are at least 3 relievers who look like they'll end up in AAA who could reasonably be expected to be as good as Paddack in the bullpen. $7.5M is a lot to pay for your 10th best reliever. To justify that salary for the Twins he needs to be an All-Star closer.

    Similarly, I want Festa to get April starts instead of Paddack because I would rather invest those innings in Festa. Paddack's my 10th choice for the bullpen and my 6th choice for the rotation which makes him quite expendable. They have the depth to make it through the season without him.

    20 minutes ago, DJL44 said:

    Still, there are at least 3 relievers who look like they'll end up in AAA who could reasonably be expected to be as good as Paddack in the bullpen. $7.5M is a lot to pay for your 10th best reliever. To justify that salary for the Twins he needs to be an All-Star closer.

    Similarly, I want Festa to get April starts instead of Paddack because I would rather invest those innings in Festa. Paddack's my 10th choice for the bullpen and my 6th choice for the rotation which makes him quite expendable. They have the depth to make it through the season without him.

    To focus on Paddack as a starter, you're really comparing Paddack to something like your 11th starter. I chose 11th because you listed (or implied) nine other starters besides Paddack. What I mean by that is if if you dump Paddack just for the sake of dumping him, you're sliding everyone up the ladder. In many (most?) seasons, you're going to need to go at least 11 deep. So if Paddack doesn't get starts, you're saying that you're willing to use someone not on that list.

    I get that you're saying Festa will be better in the long run, but with Festa never having thrown more than 125 innings, I don't think it's a huge loss to plan for a best-case (in terms of health) scenario that he starts in St. Paul. Ober in 2023 is a good case in point. He only started five games (22.2 innings) in St. Paul before he was needed. If he's healthy and effective, Festa won't be in St. Paul long enough to shoot many of his bullets. 

    And in reality, I wonder if folks are underestimating Paddack. Will he last the season healthwise? Perhaps (even probably) not. But if you look at his game log from a year ago, his shaky overall stats are really driven by a couple games where he took one for the team, which happens much more for a veteran than it does for a young guy. He had a good number of games that were decent or really quite good. Said another way, Paddack's best games were better than Festa's best games. I'm glad to roll the dice with Paddack as a starter and buy continued development time for Festa, et al.        

    5 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

    To focus on Paddack as a starter, you're really comparing Paddack to something like your 11th starter. I chose 11th because you listed (or implied) nine other starters besides Paddack. What I mean by that is if if you dump Paddack just for the sake of dumping him, you're sliding everyone up the ladder. In many (most?) seasons, you're going to need to go at least 11 deep. So if Paddack doesn't get starts, you're saying that you're willing to use someone not on that list.

    I get that you're saying Festa will be better in the long run, but with Festa never having thrown more than 125 innings, I don't think it's a huge loss to plan for a best-case (in terms of health) scenario that he starts in St. Paul. Ober in 2023 is a good case in point. He only started five games (22.2 innings) in St. Paul before he was needed. If he's healthy and effective, Festa won't be in St. Paul long enough to shoot many of his bullets. 

    And in reality, I wonder if folks are underestimating Paddack. Will he last the season healthwise? Perhaps (even probably) not. But if you look at his game log from a year ago, his shaky overall stats are really driven by a couple games where he took one for the team, which happens much more for a veteran than it does for a young guy. He had a good number of games that were decent or really quite good. Said another way, Paddack's best games were better than Festa's best games. I'm glad to roll the dice with Paddack as a starter and buy continued development time for Festa, et al.        

    But the 10th-11th starter will get like 5 games. Is it worth $7.5M to make sure Marco Raya or Travis Adams don't get 5 starts combined in 2025? There is downside to giving 20 starts to a pitcher with a 4.90 ERA (Paddack's ERA over the past 5 MLB seasons) to avoid giving 5 starts to a pitcher with a 6.00 ERA.

    3 hours ago, DJL44 said:

    But the 10th-11th starter will get like 5 games. Is it worth $7.5M to make sure Marco Raya or Travis Adams don't get 5 starts combined in 2025? There is downside to giving 20 starts to a pitcher with a 4.90 ERA (Paddack's ERA over the past 5 MLB seasons) to avoid giving 5 starts to a pitcher with a 6.00 ERA.

    I'm not trying to be a smark aleck with this question, but when's the last time a starting pitcher that is ready has legitimately been blocked by ineffective starters? 

    And I used the 10th/11th man at the end of the season as my argument, but let's also think of it differently. Because of injuries, I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that Matthews ends up starting one of the first five games. So if you accept my argument that there's a better than 50/50 chance that someone outside the "projected" top five begins in the rotation (or if you prefer, that there's a better than 50/50 chance that a projected starter begins the season on the IL), then the question becomes, do you want to take Paddack out of the mix and expect that Zebby Matthews will likely start the season in the rotation when one of Lopez-Ober-Ryan-SWR-Festa ends up on the IL?

    With how Matthews threw last year and knowing that he's only had four AAA starts, I don't.  

    41 minutes ago, IndianaTwin said:

    Because of injuries, I think there is a better than 50/50 chance that Matthews ends up starting one of the first five games.

    First five weeks, maybe. If it's in the first 5 games then it's probably Paddack who is injured.




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