Louie Varland Has a Home Run Problem

When Twins starting pitcher Tyler Mahle was placed on the 15-day IL with a posterior impingement and flexor pronator strain in his pitching elbow on May 3, the Twins elected to recall right-handed pitching prospect Louie Varland from the Triple-A St. Paul Saints. 

Varland, who made a spot start for the Twins earlier in the season against the New York Yankees on April 14, where he threw six innings, giving up three earned runs on six hits and one walk while striking out eight hitters, was finally getting his first extended look as a member of the Twins rotation.

Varland's extended look started on a not-so-hot note when he gave up four earned runs on seven hits while giving up two walks and striking out six through 4 2/3 innings pitched against the White Sox on May 3. Varland struggled initially, but things turned around quickly. 

Over Varland's next five starts, spanning from May 9 through May 31, Varland pitched a combined 30 1/3 innings while giving up only nine earned runs, striking out 25 hitters, and walking only five. 

Varland also pitched to a combined BABIP of just .246, which is lower than the league average currently sitting at .296, a Left On Base % (LOB%) of 92.5%, which is 20.74% higher than the league average, and an ERA of just 2.77, which is 1.52 points lower than league average. 

During that five-game stretch, Varland was incredible. Unfortunately, Varland has struggled over his last three starts against the Toronto Blue Jays on June 6, the Tampa Bay Rays on June 11, and the Detroit Tigers on June 18 (Happy Father's Day!). 

Through this three-game stretch, Varland has given up 21 hits, eight walks, five home runs, and 17 earned runs over 15 innings pitched. Varland also mustered a LOB% of 51.2%, which is 41.3% less than what he earned over his previous five games, an ERA of 8.64, which is 5.87 points higher than the previous five games, and a Home Run to Fly Ball Ratio (HR/FB) of 19.45%, which is 7.25% higher than league average and 6.95% higher than what he generated over his previous five games.

Varland's promising start to his first opportunity as a full-time starting rotation member has since been dampened by three rough outings.

It is important not to overreact and make critical judgments over relatively small sample sizes. Still, some serious red flags have been present all season for Varland, and the most significant red flag in Varland's game is the inability to limit home runs. 

Varland has a home run problem. 

There is no way around it.

Through 51 2/3 innings pitched, Varland has given up an HR/9 of 2.09, which is 0.92 points higher than the league average of 1.17, and an HR/FB of 21.1%, which is 8.9% higher than the league average. To add context, Fangraphs classifies an HR/FB for pitchers of 13.0% as awful, so, in a sense, Varland's HR/FB ratio of 21.1% is "Below Awful." 

I don't mean to slander Varland, and I am optimistic that he can still be a key member of future Twins rotations alongside Joe Ryan, Pablo López, and Bailey Ober. Still, his inability to limit home runs is very real and very concerning. 

Why is Varland struggling with giving up home runs?

Let's take a deeper look. 

First, it is essential to understand what it looks like when things are going well for Varland on the mound. Here is an example. 

In this sequence, which shows only two pitches, Varland strikes out Astros first baseman/designated hitter José Abreu on a slider low and outside. Varland's slider begins looking like it is going toward the inside half of the plate but then quickly jumps out to the outer half, confusing right-handed hitters like Abreu. 

The reason Varland's slider tends to be so effective, like in the video example above, is because his off-speed pitches come from the same arm slot as his fastball. Varland's average arm slot when he throws fastballs comes in at 5.5 feet, while his average arm slot for when he throws sliders comes in at 5.4 feet, virtually the exact same, especially to the human eye. 

On average, Varland's slider moves 11 inches horizontally from right-handed hitters and drops 40 inches, which is impressive considering the league average for right-handed pitchers who throw sliders horizontal movement is six inches along with 36 inches in drop. 

In the next at-bat shown in the video example, Varland strikes out Astros outfielder Jake Meyers looking on a fastball high and outside. Varland's fastball, like most pitchers, works best when he is working it on the outside edges of the zone both vertically and horizontally. In this specific example, Varland strikes out Meyers by being able to pinpoint his fastball on the upper left-hand edge of the strike zone. 

Varland's unique wind-up, which looks like his arm is slinging the ball toward the plate, reminiscent of a trebuchet or a catapult, helps him confuse hitters as, when he is effective, his off-speed pitches and fastball come from the same unique arm slot, making hitters question every pitch coming from his hand. 

Vice versa, it is essential to understand what it looks like when Varland is struggling. Let's look at an example. 

In this sequence, Varland leaves an 84 MPH changeup center cut to Toronto Blue Jays third baseman Matt Chapman. 

Now, any 84 MPH center cut changeup will more likely than not get hit very hard and very far by any worthwhile Major League hitter, especially those the likes of Chapman. But it is still essential to analyze what might have gone wrong, despite the obvious. 

Varland has struggled with his changeup this season, likely because it is a very average pitch, if not slightly below average. Varland's changeup moves 14 inches and drops 31 inches. In comparison, the league average for changeups thrown by right-handed pitchers is 15 inches in horizontal movement with 31 inches in drop. 

Varland's changeup movement is almost perfectly average, which isn't inherently discouraging. What is discouraging is that Varland threw an average pitch toward the middle of the zone to an above-average Major League hitter, a story that has been told far too often this year.

Varland has allowed 10% of balls put in play hit off of him to be barreled, which is 3% higher than the league average. This measurement is further evidenced by Varland's Barrel% being in only the 20th percentile. When Varland gives up contact, it tends to be hit hard and in the air, which can be a recipe for unfortunate outcomes for Varland, the Twins, and Twins fans alike. 

Now, this formula can work well in pitcher-friendly ballparks like Target Field. Still, when facing teams away from Target Field in hitter-friendly ballparks, as illustrated in the Blue Jays video, things can quickly go wrong for Varland if teams begin to make hard contact off him. 

Can Varland's Home Run Problem Be Fixed?

Yes, but Varland will need to work on changing things.

First, Varland needs to develop better off-speed pitches and locate them better. Can that happen at the Major League level? Yes, but it's not a foregone conclusion that the Twins would be comfortable with that, especially with potentially better options in the recently emerging left-handed pitching prospect Brent Headrick doing well in Triple-A and his most recent long relief appearance versus the Tigers on June 17, and the return of veteran right-handed 35-year-old Kenta Maeda imminent. 

Varland also needs to stop leaving as many fastballs hanging in the zone as he does. Varland throws 67% of his fastball in the strike zone, which is why he is so good at limiting walks, but when a pitcher throws 67% of his fastballs in the zone, that leaves the possibility of more hard-hit balls being put in play. 

If Varland can find ways to make his off-speed pitches more effective and play a complementary role to his fastball that needs to not be left in the middle of the zone as often, then he could become a solidified member of the Twins starting rotation alongside Ryan, López, and Ober. 

We will have to see if the Twins will allow Varland to make those adjustments at the Major League level or if he needs to undergo more fine-tuning in Triple-A with the St. Paul Saints and their coaching staff, but with Varland giving up two more home runs through 4 1/3 innings pitched while also propelling his ERA on the season to 5.30 in his most recent start against the Detroit Tigers on June 18, it feels like Varland has pitched himself out of a spot in the Twins rotation.

What do you think about Varland's home run issue? Do you think he should get optioned to Triple-A or can he work out his command and location issues at the Major League level?