Deal or No Deal: How Could the COVID-19 Delay Affect the Trade Deadline?

Traditionally, baseball’s July 31st deadline is exactly four months, or 57%, into the baseball season. These four months are crucial for clubs to decide their moves to best prepare for the postseason, and these trades have been critical for teams’ performances in the postseason in recent years. Cheating aside, Justin Verlander was the arm that Houston needed in 2017. Nick Anderson was the Rays’ saving grace. And last but not least, the Miami Marlins sent postseason veteran Sergio Romo, one of the most beloved and popular Twins, to Minnesota.

Last week, I posed three possible outcomes for the 2020 baseball season. This week, we have a slightly clearer guess as to how the 2020 season will play out. Sites like SBD are theorizing that MLB won't be back until at least April 15th. Bob Nightengale of USA Today believes that a Memorial Day return could also be feasible, which would indicate a two month delay to the regular baseball season. However, Baseball Commissioner Rob Manfred and all 30 teams are still hoping to play as many games as possible in 2020.

Given these potential outcomes, will the trade deadline remain on July 31st? Will teams start trading before the season even begins? If the deadline can be/is moved, when will it be?

First of all, the most logical step that the MLB could take is to move the July 31st deadline to the new date that represents the completion of 57% of the season. If the season begins on April 15th, the trade deadline would only be moved back a few weeks, even if the season is shortened slightly. However, a Memorial Day return poses a major inconvenience for players and a potential marketing loss. Assuming the entire season is played out, the trade deadline would be pushed back two months, which would be post-Labor Day. Traded players would be expected to move their families after the beginning of a new school year, which would lead to more separated families.

In addition, the traditional trade deadline captures its flurry of media attention partly because of the excitement surrounding the trades, but it’s irresponsible to ignore the fact that no other sports are occurring on July 31st. All major sports outlets direct their entire focus towards baseball, starting from approximately a week before the deadline. However, a later trade deadline could run into the marketing blockage of the NFL. The team on Francisco Lindor’s jersey is appealing to baseball fans, but Tom Brady’s first few weeks as a Buccaneer will greatly overshadow a September baseball trade, which would indicate a large revenue loss by the MLB.

It’s unlikely that teams will begin trades prior to the season. The NHL and NBA have imposed roster freezes that prohibit trades during this hiatus. Until the MLB imposes the same roster freeze, it’s not completely out of the question that no trades will occur before the season starts. Teams in competitive divisions could be concerned about a heavily condensed season, where interdivisional games will greatly affect the outcome of their season and outnumber games against other divisions and leagues. These teams could make a move for a superstar before they've ramped up for the year.

Rumors have been swirling of the trades of many AL Central heavyweights, such as the previously mentioned Lindor, Matthew Boyd, and Whit Merrifield. There are also still numerous Twins fans hoping for a trade for another arm. Therefore, these blockbuster deals and other trades before the season begins could greatly alter the landscape of the entire season before the season even starts.

The 2020 baseball season’s outlook is as clear as mud. There are more questions asked then answered. However, if baseball goes on, it’s not a stretch to say that there will be a trade deadline. Although Baseball Christmas may not be in July this year, you may still see a top-of-the-line player under your team’s tree.