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    Can Lewis Thorpe Translate Whiffs into Results?


    Nick Nelson

    With two starting pitchers now in the mix who will not be available until well after the season starts, it's increasingly likely the Twins will open with at least one young internal option in the rotation. Among MLB-ready arms, Lewis Thorpe might be most intriguing.

    Image courtesy of Jay Biggerstaff-USA TODAY Sports

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    He's presently a decent contender to make the 26-man roster out spring training. Even if the Twins add another starter and push him to Triple-A, a healthy Thorpe is almost certain to play a role over the course of the season, and perhaps a significant one.

    Named the organization's Minor League Pitcher of the Year in 2018, Thorpe headed into this 2019 campaign with a head of steam. Twins Daily ranked him as the organization's eighth-best prospect coming in, noting that his less-than-dominant results seemed to belie the quality of his stuff, as reflected by an outstanding K/BB ratio and whiff rate.

    Thorpe's paradoxical profile played out once again in 2019, except to an even greater degree, and this time Twins fans got to see it first-hand.

    In 124 total innings between Triple-A (96.1 IP) and the majors (27.2 IP), the left-hander piled up 150 strikeouts. As Thieres Rabelo pointed out here last month: "Among the 73 pitchers who logged 90 or more innings in Triple-A last season, Thorpe had the highest K/9 (11.12), swinging strike rate (14.5) and was second in K% (29.5)." Not half-bad for a 23-year-old with four games of experience above Double-A entering the year. And during his fairly brief time in the majors, hitters kept missing on his pitches. In 12 appearances (two starts), Thorpe averaged 10.1 K/9 and his 11.8% swinging strike rate was higher than – among others – Taylor Rogers, Jose Berrios, and Brusdar Graterol.

    And yet, the results just weren't there for Thorpe. Despite his terrific 28% K-rate between the two levels, he also allowed 68 earned runs in his 124 total innings of work (4.94 ERA). That includes a 6.18 ERA during his MLB debut. It's not like his whiffs were paired with poor control – he issued only 35 walks to go along with the 150 strikeouts – but once again the strong K/BB ratio didn't translate to shutdown production.

    There are a few ways to look at this.

    The pessimistic view is that Thorpe is doomed to this disconnect – capable of attacking the zone and running up the strikeout rate, but lacking the ability to get outs on a consistent basis. Do the strikeout and whiff numbers exaggerate his arsenal's true quality? He'd hardly be the first. Thorpe's limited Statcast data would seem to support this notion.

    thorpestatcast.png

    The more optimistic, and I think more fair, view is that Thorpe's results are still catching up to his stuff. He's finding his consistency. It's important to remember: he lost two full seasons (2015 and 2016) to health issues. Since returning, he's been fast-tracked, making relatively brief stops at High-A, Double-A, and Triple-A on his way to the majors. While he hasn't been amazing everywhere, he has shown the capacity to overpower hitters everywhere.

    The Twins should probably plan on starting him back at Triple-A in 2020, but the 24-year-old could be poised for a big step forward and a sizable impact on the big-league club.

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    They do look similar by the numbers but Gonsalves is 89-90 with the fastball and didn’t generate swings and misses in his short stay. I don’t know the AAA numbers but it is hard to imagine they were anywhere near Thorpe’s swing and miss rate,

     

    I think Gonsalves would have been the first one up last year had he remained healthy and lost his best shot at an opportunity.

    Yeah im hoping that Thorpe does well. But my point was that Gonsalves also was a top ranked pitcher at one point in time, and had amassed a lot of K's in the minors. However, I do not know what his swing and miss rate was? But a lot of K's he had and he also seemed to walk quite a few guys too. So that was my Thorpe comparison, because Thorpe also doesn't throw extremely hard either. I hope Thorpe does well, it just seemed weird to dump Gonsalves so quickly? But it is what it is at this point. I also suppose if you have too many of Gonsalves/Thorpe types of pitchers you probably run into some redundancy also.

    Gonsalves was a 50 prospect after 2017 and entered his first full AAA season in 2018. He walked 55 in 100 innings that year. Like many prospects he rating dropped as he hit the upper levels He was injured all of 2019. This 2017 AA numbers are pretty far back in the rear view mirror in order to commit a 40 man spot.

     

     

    Thorpe, on the other hand, was a 40 prospect the three years before that improved to 45 with his first full season in AAA. That trend is encouraging.

    I don't think Thorpe has a particular problem with his pitches not playing against righties (vs lefties). At least in 2019, both righties and lefties crushed him in the majors...and neither righties or lefties crushed him at Rochester.

     

    To me, he simply lacks major-league command. Young guys without command typically fall into two categories...those afraid to throw the ball over the plate; and those that get crushed when they throw the ball over the plate. Thorpe had periods of both, but mainly fell into the latter category. Give Thorpe Smeltzer's command, and we'll have something. And BABiP regression should help a bit.




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