Breaking Down 2024 Twins Rookies, Part 1: Hitters Who Debuted

Austin Martin
One of the two returning pieces from José Berríos trade, Martin made the Twins roster out of the gate in 2024 and made his debut by pinch-running in the second game of the season. He’d earn his first start on Easter Sunday, going 0-for-3 at the plate, and wouldn’t get his first hit until Apr. 9 against the Los Angeles Dodgers. In all, Martin had four different stints with the Twins this season, slashing .253/.318/.352 in 257 plate appearances across 93 games. He hit one home run, drove in 16 runs, scored 41 times, and stole 7 bases, while splitting time between second base, left field, and center field.

The Good
Martin showed great plate discipline and bat-to-ball skills. He was better than the league average in chase, whiff, and strikeout rates, and supplemented that with plus speed and baserunning ability. He managed not to be overpowered by a big-league fastball, while being able to adjust to offspeed stuff, as he produced .308 and .386 wOBAs against those pitch types, respectively. His stat line is dampened by a rough stretch in May and a horrid month of July. Otherwise, he produced at an average-plus clip for a majority of the season. Possibly his most impressive ability was hitting with runners on base, where his numbers were better across the board as compared to his season-long stat line. On the defensive side of the ball, he graded out as having a plus arm in the outfield, showing the ability to hold runners from advancing to extra bases.

The Bad
Martin will need to improve his ability to hit breaking balls, as he saw a decline in production against those pitch types. While his discipline and contact ability are pluses, his quality of contact was not a strength. He only barreled up two balls across 188 batted-ball events. This isn’t surprising, as power has never been part of his game, but that small of an output (.099 ISO) is going to limit his production and where you can put him in the lineup. While there is value in the ability (and willingness) to play multiple positions, Martin graded out as a poor defender at each of the positions he played, especially in the outfield.

The Outlook
A deeper dive into Martin’s season might be required to get a true look at where he excels and where he struggles. His monthly splits are wild, ranging from a 154 wRC+ in June across 32 at-bats all the way down to a -7 wRC+ across 30 at-bats in July. Obviously, those samples are all small enough to defy analysis, but they also make that analysis more important to perform, as best we can. Martin showed that he can be a solid but unspectacular contributor at the big-league level, but at this point, his lack of power and ability to play defense make me wonder if he is more of a utility depth piece than a fixture in the Twins lineup over the long term. At just 25 years old, Martin has time for more development and growth in his game, but I think he plays a similar role in 2025.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Brooks Lee
The eighth overall pick from the 2022 Draft debuted on Jul. 3, going 2-for-4 with an RBI and a strikeout. He’d go on to earn 175 plate appearances over 47 games, slashing .216/.263./.321 with nine runs scored, three home runs, 27 RBIs, and three stolen bases. The versatile switch-hitter played a mix of second base, third base, and shortstop, grading out as an above-average fielder at third and below average at the two other spots, per FanGraphs's UZR/150 metric.

The Good
Lee’s ascension through the Twins farm system was impressive, and his dominance at Triple-A St. Paul earned him a regular spot on the big-league roster when injuries created an opening. He has good bat control supported by solid whiff and strikeout rates, plus the ability to hit to all fields and square up the baseball. Albeit in a small sample, Lee did his best work against changeups and cutters, suggesting he's not restricted to sitting on heaters. More impressively, especially given his rookie status, Lee was one of the Twins' best hitters with a man in scoring position, with a .722 OPS. He produced more walks than strikeouts in those situations.

The Bad
His approach at the plate isn’t “bad,” perhaps, but given his below-average walk rate and above-average chase rate (swings at pitches outside the zone / pitches outside the zone), he could benefit from being more selective at the plate. Moreover, his exit velocity and launch angles aren’t ideal, limiting his power. A slight change in approach could help in those numbers. In his first stint at the big-league level, Lee struggled to produce against four-seamers and sinkers, sporting .470 and .377 OPSes, respectively, while also having trouble connecting with sliders.

The Outlook
The team still hopes Lee is going to be a fixture in the lineup for years to come, and based on what we saw in a limited sample, he may be best used at third base. We know Royce Lewis can play there, and prefers to play there over second base, but with his injury history, he may be better off at the keystone instead of the hot corner. As seen this year, Lee is likely going to be the “next man up” if (or more probably, when) Carlos Correa misses time due to injury.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

DaShawn Keirsey
Keirsey only had 12 plate appearances over five games played in 2024, so there isn't a ton to glean from such a small sample. In those 12 plate appearances, he got his first major-league hit, struck out once, and got plunked once.

The Outlook
Keirsey was not protected from last year's Rule 5 Draft, but wasn't selected, either. No team believed him a ready big-leaguer for 2024. He responded with a fantastic season for the Saints, setting the team's single-season record for hits by slashing .300/.368/.476 with 14 home runs and 36 stolen bases and boasting solid walk and strikeout rates.

He is a phenomenal defensive center fielder, and it may be as soon as next year that we see Byron Buxton start transitioning into a near full-time DH, which would open the door for Keirsey to take over the middle of the Twins outfield for years to come.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Michael Helman
Like Keirsey, Helman wasn't protected from the 2023 Rule 5 Draft, but went unselected, leaving him in the organization. He responded with a .271/.350/.487 slash line in Triple A, earning his spot in the big leagues when rosters expanded on Sept. 1. He earned his first hit in his MLB debut, and finished the season going 3-for-9 with two doubles, two runs scored, and three strikeouts.

The Outlook
Projecting Helman’s outlook for the Twins is tough. He's been a solid minor-league utility player over six seasons, but there's a reason he went unprotected last December and he took so long to reach the big leagues. Realistically, he’s nothing more than a Quadruple-A player who will be a good depth piece behind the depth, as long as he’s in the organization.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Jair Camargo
Camargo’s road to the big leagues has been even longer than Helman’s, but he’s only 25 years old after being signed by the Los Angeles Dodgers in 2015 International Free Agency. Since being included in the Brusdar Graterol-for-Kenta Maeda trade, Camargo has done well in the lower levels of the organization, but has struggled in the upper levels--including a .212/.290/.403 slash line for the Saints in 2024. Being a catcher will take you far, though. He made his MLB debut on Apr. 16, drawing a walk in his first at-bat, but is still in search of his first big-league hit after going 0-fer in six at-bats.

The Outlook
I think Camargo’s outlook is just slightly more promising than Helman’s, due to him being a catcher and the Twins' organizational depth at the position.

Here's how ZIPS projects his production over the next two seasons:

Where do you think Lee lands in the lineup next year? Which of Martin, Helman, Keirsey, and Camargo can carve out valuable bench roles? Speak up in the comments.