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    Arizona's Cautionary Tale


    Nick Nelson

    In efforts to build a championship-caliber club, the Arizona Diamondbacks took just about every step that many Twins fans would like to see from their own hometown team.

    It, uh... hasn't worked out.

    Image courtesy of Mark J. Rebilas, USA Today

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    In 2014, Arizona hired a baseball legend in Tony La Russa to oversee their baseball ops department as chief officer. Creating this position, rather than simply hiring a new general manager, is the same route that Minnesota reportedly plans to take.

    Later that year, La Russa hired Dave Stewart to become the new D-backs GM. Stewart was an against-the-grain hiring with no meaningful previous connections to the franchise. As a former All-Star hurler who went on to work as a pitching coach (among other things) following his retirement, Stewart looked like a fine choice to overhaul the roster and rebuild the pitching staff.

    The Diamondbacks went 79-83 in 2015, their first year under the Stewart/La Russa regime. Their high-powered offense ranked second in the NL in scoring but was held back by a sub-par rotation, so Arizona decided to go all-in on pitching during the offseason.

    And I mean all-in.

    In December, the D-backs stunned the baseball world by signing free agent Zack Greinke to a massive contract approaching $200 million in total value. The very next day, they pulled the trigger on a blockbuster trade, acquiring 25-year-old Shelby Miller in exchange for a gaudy prospect package headlined by last June's No. 1 overall draft pick Dansby Swanson.

    In theory, Arizona had just picked up two starting pitchers to slot at the very top of their rotation, expending massive resources in order to do so. And the results?

    Well, you're probably aware. Greinke owns a 4.54 ERA, which would be his worst since 2005 if it sticks, and Miller has gone 2-10 with a 6.81 ERA in 15 starts sandwiching a two-month demotion to Triple-A.

    Despite enlisting a brand new front office structure, despite drafting arms heavily for years (seven of Arizona's last eight first-round selections prior to Swanson were pitchers), and despite making perhaps the most aggressive series of moves to acquire high-end pitching ever... the Diamondbacks find themselves in fourth place. They've somehow allowed as many runs as the Twins.

    Local fans can surely see some staggered parallels between the two franchises. Obviously the Twins aren't going to enter the offseason with a mindset that they're a couple arms away from being a World Series contender, but their need to upgrade the rotation is equally urgent if not more so.

    Arizona's postseason drought does not extend as far Minnesota's, nor does their record of consistently terrible pitching results. While the Twins' new head of baseball ops will not come in facing the kind of win-now directive that La Russa evidently felt, there will be pressure to orchestrate a big move or two and give fans some reason to believe that a vastly better product is in store for 2017.

    But as the D-backs and their new front office have illustrated, big moves aren't always a good thing. What's important is making the right moves. The Twins, under Terry Ryan, didn't do that often enough to dig out of their lengthy era of horrendous play.

    Here's hoping the new crew can do it, and that they can look ahead to better outcomes than the embattled bunch down in the desert.

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    This thread has become a lot like the threads from last offseason, debating whether the Twins should spend money to improve. Well, they didn't spend money to improve. The results are officially in.

     

    AZ still has an ace and a 25-year-old who has had one bad season, but is still a proven starter, going into next season. They are much closer to having a sustainable winning team than the Twins, imo.

     

    Well Chief, you do have a point.  In the first paragraph I was simply trying to point out this premise is  unreasonable in that it assumes we can just outbid every other team for premier agents and that they all want to come here.  The 2nd and 3rd paragraphs do not take the extreme example of the first paragraph literally.  Free agency is a tool this team should use.  They just need to be very smart and timing is part of the equation.  

     

    The answer is there is no way the twins could afford 3 premier free agents.  However, I do think they could afford a front of the rotation starter plus whatever other hole needs the most attention.  They can do this and still extend a couple of their key young players if they are patient and let this core come together.  That includes all of the SP prospects (Berrios / Gonsalves / Jay / Romeo / Stewart / Meija and perhaps their pick nexct June.  Of course, the reason for this is that would have a large portion of their 25 man roster in their cost controlled years.

     

    I say this recognizing that there are only two instances of teams this century with equal or less revenue than the Twins that have landed this type of SP.  The Rookies in 2002 (Hampton) and Grienke last year.  I am not sure we can count Grient given Arizona had just received a billion dollar TV deal.  Plus, while some here advocated for going after Grienke, most posters here would agree that contract was a very bad idea for Arizona.  I would also concede the over pay is indicative of the difficulty of landing these players for a team that is not in a major market.

     

    I have always agreed with you that lower revenue teams don't do this. I have disagreed that they shouldn't ever do it, though in this post, we seem to be agreeing that IF there is a premier FA SP, they should try to sign him (even knowing the last 1-2 years will probably stink relative to the contract).

     

    I think AZ has a much bigger tv deal, so I agree, I'm not sure they are like the Twins. 

     

    Clearly, rightly or wrongly, lower revenue teams agree with your general stance, that they should not go in for big time FAs (though the Cards have re-signed their own players to big deals, or tried to).




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