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    2017 Twins Player Predictions: Jason Castro

    Seth Stohs

    By Seth Stohs

    The Minnesota Twins offseason is generally considered to have been very quiet. It would be difficult to dispute that too much. However, the Twins new front office was very aggressive in their pursuit of one free agent. By mid-November, just weeks after the new regime began, it was clear that the Twins were a serious player in negotiations for catcher Jason Castro. By the end of the month, Castro had signed a three year, $24.5 million deal with the Twins.

    As has been written about, ad nauseum, much of Castro’s value comes from the his work behind the plate. No need to go over there much here, but Castro has great pitch framing stats. He presents the ball well, but he’s also touted for working well with pitchers and calling a good game. His numbers indicate that he is average at controlling the running game. He also seems to give up a fair number of passed balls.

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    However, we are here to provide predictions for the offensive side of the game. Castro was the Astros first-round pick in 2008 (10th overall) out of Stanford. He was an All Star in 2013 when he set career-highs in most statistical categories. The last three years have not been great offensively, particularly if you only look at batting average. He has hit .222, .211 and .310. However, he generally appears to have a good idea at the plate, and he has had ten or more home runs each of the last four years.

    So let’s get to it. Below you will find my predictions (or guesses, if you prefer) for Jason Castro’s 2017 season. Hopefully you will consider posting your thoughts and your predictions into the comments below. It’s always fun to take a look at the end of the season and see how our predictions look.

    KEY NUMBERS

    30 - No, Castro isn’t going to hit for average, and he won’t be an on-base machine, but the last two years he has had 30 extra base hits and 11 home runs each year. He will occasionally show some pop in his bat.

    .149 - Castro only hit .231 against right-handers last year, but he hit just .149 against lefties. The American League Central Division has several quality left-handed starters (Carlos Rodon, Jose Quintana, Danny Duffy, to name a few), which is why it is important that the backup hit right-handed. Aside from Opening Day against Duffy, hopefully Castro will have limited plate appearances against southpaws.

    PREDICTIONS

    Jason Castro: 390 at-bats, .228/.302/.372 (.674), 20 doubles, 0 triples, 12 home runs.

    ---------------------------------------------------------------------------

    I think that Castro will play around 120 games, and obviously he’ll bat in the lower third of the lineup. It’s unlikely that Castro will hit even .250, but I think he can hit for a better average if he is used appropriately. He’s got a smooth swing, and he should continue to hit plenty of extra base hits.

    Now, a .674 OPS for a catcher would be pretty solid. I think coupled with his defense, it would be a successful season for the 29-year-old.

    YOUR TURN

    Your turn. Share your thoughts on and predictions on Jason Castro in 2017. We can take a look back at the end of the season and see how we did.

    Seth Stohs has been blogging about the Minnesota Twins since May 2003. A founder and owner of Twins Daily (including Brewer Fanatic, North Side Baseball), Seth has been a Twins fan for 40 years and has a passion for covering the minor leagues and prospects. #GirlDad
    Follow Seth Stohs on Twitter: sethtweets

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    Featured Comments

    Mike Sixel

    Mike Sixel 55,014

  • Old-Timey Member

    • Posted

     

    Just to follow up on some evidence about the relationship between pitch framing and quality of pitching staff.  Consider Fransisco Cervelli.  In 2015 as the catcher for the Pirates he led MLB in pitch framing, creating 1.79 strikes/game and saving 26.7 runs over the course of the season as the Pirates catcher.

     

    In 2015, the Pirates had the 2nd best ERA in baseball with a 3.21 team ERA.  However, in 2016, Cervelli only created 0.83 strikes/game and saved 9.9 runs. He was still on the same team, but in 2016 the Pirates pitching staff was the 18th best in MLB with a 4.21 ERA.  

     

    I am sure that there is some real skill in pitch framing and that catchers like Ryan Doumat (whom is used almost as a standard for bad catching) will always be bad because of their bad form, when you have a statistical measure that has such variance it is probably not a good thing to base signing decisions on.

     

    The other thing that worries me about the Castro signing is how the balls/strikes works teh other way.  For a good part of his career teh Astros were at least a competitive team.  He was a poor hitter with a little pop in his bat.  But, moving the the doormat Twins when the ball/strike calls work AGAINST him at the plate does he have enough skill to overcome that.  When you are a career .699 OPS and an extra strike called is worth  .113 runs, it doesnt take much to impact your hitting into below replacement level.

     

    I hope I am wrong and that Castro's other skills behind the plate help the Twins staff get more consistent. 

     

    You realize there are entire treatises on the interwebs about this, right?

     

    You can believe the math, or not, up to you. 

    mlhouse

    mlhouse 826

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    You realize there are entire treatises on the interwebs about this, right?

     

    You can believe the math, or not, up to you. 

     

     

    LOL at the math.  Maybe you have to "believe" the math, I don't.  I outlined why I think that the statistic is weak:  it does not control for the quality of pitching staff and the estimate for how many runs a single strike saves.  You can make a counter argument, or not but just because it has 'math' and it is on "interwebs" does not make it "settled science".

    Mr. Brooks

    Mr. Brooks 7,174

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

    LOL at the math. Maybe you have to "believe" the math, I don't. I outlined why I think that the statistic is weak: it does not control for the quality of pitching staff and the estimate for how many runs a single strike saves. You can make a counter argument, or not but just because it has 'math' and it is on "interwebs" does not make it "settled science".

    I can understand why someone could disagree with projecting how many runs it is worth.

    But why would it have to account for quality of pitching?

    It is simply measuring something that factually happened- a pitch that factually missed the zone being called a strike, and vice versa.

    mlhouse

    mlhouse 826

  • Verified Member

    • Posted

     

    I can understand why someone could disagree with projecting how many runs it is worth.
    But why would it have to account for quality of pitching?
    It is simply measuring something that factually happened- a pitch that factually missed the zone being called a strike, and vice versa.

     

     

    Quality pitching is going to put the ball closer to the strike zone more often and they are going to get the benefits of the umpire's calls more often, which is another factor that needs to be controlled across these studies.   I also have seen pitch framing studies were they narrow the run factor by count:  obviously a created strike on a x-2 count has a huge value vs. some other counts and they built data on how a strike projection leads to runs.  I still think the number is inflated, but it is an argument I really don't think is all that important  because even using their data I think pitch framing is not all that important.

     

    If you have a catcher that can call a great game, work with your ptichers, control the running game, and is a good pitch framer then that is a positive.  If you throw a rock into your pool we know that it increases the water level even if you cannot measure it.  

     

    Regardless, my biggest issue with the Castro signing is that instead of giving Mitch Garver the opportunity to prove himself, they got a poor hitting catcher that may or may not be able to make a contribution with his glove (and what is the net impact of his offense-defense?).  I go with Garver and see if he can hit.  If he can't then we would ahve to find alternatives, and I think you can find guys like Castro anytime you want.



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