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    Anthony DeSclafani Needs a Pitch Mix Fix


    Lucas Seehafer

    The Minnesota Twins acquired starting pitcher Anthony DeSclafani from the Seattle Mariners on Monday evening. While his superficial numbers aren’t particularly eye-popping, DeSclafani provides solid rotation depth. He may also have some potential waiting to be unlocked.

    Image courtesy of © D. Ross Cameron - USA Today Sports

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    Anthony DeSclafani was once considered among MLB’s up-and-coming starting pitchers before injuries began to hamper his career. He has spent significant time on the injured list, due to a right UCL sprain (all of 2017), right flexor-pronator strain (2023), right ankle inflammation (2021) and surgery (2022; peroneal tendon repair), right shoulder fatigue (2021), right teres major strain (2020), and two left oblique strains (2016 and 2018).  

    However, when healthy, DeSclafani has proved he’s a viable MLB starter. He has posted ERAs of 3.17, 3.89, and 4.05 in the three seasons in which he’s made at least 30 starts, and 3.28 and 4.93 in the two seasons in which he started between 20 and 30. He's a traditional five-pitch mix, but has largely relied on his sinker and slider over his past two seasons with the San Francisco Giants. (The Mariners traded for DeSclafani earlier this offseason, before flipping him to the Twins.)

    DeSclafani’s best and most-thrown—44.8% usage rate last summer—pitch is that slider. It sits at 87-89 mph, with poor spin efficiency (43% active) and a 60-minute deviation in observed versus spin-based movement. In English: DeSclafani’s slider features more gyroscopic spin than active (i.e. movement-causing) spin. Thus, it relies more on gravity and seam-shifted wake to create drop, rather than on the Magnus effect to create run.

     

    As a result, his bullet slider is a ground-ball machine, with the average launch angle against it in 2023 registering at 10 degrees; he’s only surrendered 34 home runs across 4,578 career offerings. It’s a legit weapon, though it works in defiance of the Twins’ sweeper-crazed ethos last year.

    DeSclafani’s second most-utilized pitch is a sinker. (Notice I said second-most utilized, not second-best. More on that in a second.) To be blunt: It’s nothing special. It does exactly what you’d expect of a sinker. It has decent arm-side run (16 inches; basically league average) and a modest 2,128 RPM spin rate (same). It’s used for inducing ground balls, and that’s about it.

     

    Those two pitches became his bread-and-butter during his tenure by the Bay, but there might be much more to him than what the Giants have tapped into recently.

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    Sinkers generally benefit from being located down in the zone, exactly because they spin less quickly and with more gyroscopic elements. This causes the ball to break down and away to same-handed batters. (Sinkers left above the lower third of the zone tend not to sink to the same extent, thus reducing their effectiveness.)

    I'll push back on this statement because as we've seen in recent years, the trend is to throw fastballs in the upper third and sinkers have started to follow their 4-seam brethren up there as well. While it is common to see more home runs, it also gets lower batting average in play, more swinging strikes, and more foul balls (strikes overall). 

    Random convo here but the interesting development over the last 10 years is how the 4-seam went from a pitch that was 50/50 on upper half and lower half in 2013 to one that is now 65/35 in 2023 and the sinker went from a pitch that was 42/58 inner half/outer half to 53/47 in/out this past year. Down is now up and outside is now inside. 

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    23 hours ago, Matthew Trueblood said:

    If it nudges you at all, our goal going forward is to deliver two Caretakers articles per week. Great value! This premium content lets us get deeper into some subjects and supports expanding coverage on all fronts. Totally understand if it's not in the budget; I have to eschew a lot of subscriptions I'd very much like to have. Just want to put it out there. We're going to keep the good stuff coming on this front, and we hope to add another couple of names to the rotation of writers for these pieces soon.

    You got me to subscribe with this one! $50 a year is pretty reasonable, especially to me if it funds deep dives like this. 




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