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The Oakland Athletics are rumored to be shopping their star, young, flame-throwing reliever, Mason Miller. How interested should the Minnesota Twins be?
In the first two months of the young MLB season, A's closer Mason Miller has been one of the most exciting young players in the league. In 26 innings this season, Miller has an ERA of 2.08 with a FIP of 0.85. Yes, a FIP of 0.85.
Apart from just the results, Miller also has arguably the best stuff of any reliever in baseball, pairing a triple-digit fastball with a devastating slider to create a two-pitch arsenal that is striking out batters at a video game rate of 51.5%. Additionally, Miller leads all relievers in fWAR at 1.4 and is top-10 in Win Probability Added.
With the Oakland Athletics franchise in complete turmoil until they complete their move to Las Vegas, they will be hearing out trade packages this deadline and seeing if now is the time to move their stud reliever, when his trade value will never be higher.
Should the Twins be interested? This potential move comes with benefits and significant drawbacks that the Twins must carefully weigh.
Miller, with his elite stuff, could elevate the Twins' bullpen from good to great. This kind of bullpen strength is invaluable in the playoffs, where games often hinge on late-inning performances.
Pairing him with Jhoan Duran, who has already proven to be an elite reliever, and the excellent Griffin Jax and (hopefully, soon) Brock Stewart, the Twins could create one of the most formidable late-game bullpens in baseball. Additionally, acquiring a cost-controlled, high-impact player like Miller might be one of the few moves that Twins’ ownership would be willing to sign off on.
We saw this offseason that payroll is a huge point of contention for this ownership group. With the television deal in flux even more now than it was last season, payroll is unlikely to rise. Miller, being a rookie, would be under team control for several years, providing significant value on a minimum contract. The Twins likely won’t be able to be in the market to trade for a veteran like Vladimir Guerrero Jr. simply because they won’t be willing to pay whatever part of his contract is remaining. Miller will be one of the few players that would both provide value and that the Twins would be able to “afford."
However, acquiring Miller will undoubtedly require a substantial package of prospects. According to Ken Rosenthal, a Miller package would need to include “a young player of comparable ability, or a substantial package of multiple youngsters who could be part of the A's future."
The Twins have a strong farm system, but parting with top-tier talent always carries risk. A deal for Miller would likely need to include two top-100 prospects plus another prospect or two. That's a lot to give up for a reliever.
Historically, relievers do not provide the same level of value as starters or position players. They pitch fewer innings, and their impact, while significant, is limited to specific high-leverage situations. Overpaying for a reliever can be detrimental. The Twins must consider whether the potential upgrade in the bullpen justifies the cost in prospect capital.
There is also the matter of Miller's health record. Prior to this year, he had been used as a starter, but the A's moved him to the bullpen in part because they wanted to see if he could stay healthy for a full year. In his four-year professional career, he's never topped the combined 52 2/3 innings he hit last year in the minors and majors.
The decision to trade for Miller is not straightforward. On one hand, his addition could transform the Twins' bullpen into one of the most feared units in baseball, giving them a significant edge in the postseason. On the other hand, the cost in prospect capital and the inherent risks associated with relievers make this a gamble that the Twins must consider carefully.
Given the Twins' financial constraints and their current playoff aspirations, Miller represents a unique opportunity to add an impact piece without spending money on it. However, with the prospect capital required and the ridiculous amount of risk involved in acquiring a reliever, it’s not worth it.
What do you think? Should the Twins make a move for Mason Miller? Leave a comment below and join the conversation!
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