Why Mitch Garver is Poised for a Huge 2021

The Bomba Squad. ‘Sota Pop. The monikers came thick and fast for the 2019 Minnesota Twins record setting offense. After setting a MLB record by clobbering 307 home runs in 2019, an encore of that prolific output was expected in 2020. It didn’t happen. The offense sputtered throughout the season.

I decided to use PECOTA to help put disappointing Twins 2020 offensive struggles in perspective. For each player, I found their percentile PECOTA projection which most closely matched their actual 2020 performance. While a small sample size from a shortened season and injuries were a significant part of the Twins 2020 offensive narrative, the dramatic underperformance of the offense needs to be more heavily emphasized, in addition to trying to mine ‘the why’ in each case.

Mitch Garver

Garver was the Twins biggest offensive disappointment in 2020. He was a wrecking ball in 2019, on the way to one of the greatest offensive seasons by a catcher ever. He put up 3.9 fWAR in just 359 plate appearances, along with a 155 wRC+, good for the 7th best mark in MLB. Garver was hampered by an intercostal strain in 2020 which seemed to inhibit his swing. His approach suffered significantly as his K% rose from 24% to 46% while his ISO plummeted from .357 to .097.

From these data, we see that Garver was considerably worse than his 1st percentile 2020 projection and almost 50% worse than the average hitter, more Jeff Mathis than Mike Piazza. We can also see his 50th percentile outcome for 2021 is a significant improvement on 2020.

The Why

So, what happened to Garver, exactly? While no one expected him to replicate his incredible 2019 season, no one expected him to fall off the face of the earth either. So what are some clues about his 2020 struggles?

Garver’s Hard Hit% stayed consistent (50% in both 2019 and 2020) and his avg. exit velocity was actually up to 92.4 mph in 2020. There was no problem with what he *was* connecting with. Here’s the first giveaway. Garver’s swing and miss % rose dramatically for all pitch types between 2019 and 2020. In 2019, Garver feasted on fastballs (WOBA .562), but in 2020 (WOBA .267), he swung and missed at 33.7% of the fastballs he saw, up from 15.8% in 2019.

We know that Garver swung and missed at an extensively higher rate in 2020, but what does that look like in the strike zone? Before we answer that, it’s important to know a little bit about Garver’s strike zone profile.

Garver is a pretty conservative hitter. O-Swing% measures the percentage of hacks you take at pitches outside the zone, while Z-Swing% measures the same for inside the zone. O-Contact% is percentage contact outside the zone, and Z-Contact% is percentage contact inside the zone. Garver typically swings at around 20% of pitches outside the zone, and 55% inside the zone. Overall, he swings at around 35% of pitches. For the sake of comparison, Nelson Cruz swings at around 30% of pitches outside the zone, and 70% in the zone, 48% overall.

Garver saw a 20% drop in his O-Contact% in 2020 and a 12% drop in his Z-Contact%, put simply, he literally couldn’t hit the ball. Here’s what that looks like visually:

You’ll notice that Garver’s performance over the heart of the plate was significantly worse in 2020 (-7 runs) than in 2019 (+10 runs), that’s especially problematic for someone who relies on waiting for a particular pitch.

Garver had a persistent injury in 2020, an intercostal strain. Twins Daily’s resident injury expert, Lucas Seehafer, gave some thoughts on how this might impact a swing:

‘The intercostals lie between the rib bones and forcefully drive air in and out of the lungs. Breathing is usually a fairly passive experience; the diaphragm contracts to draw air in and relaxes to push air out. Every swing Garver made likely came with discomfort at best and significant pain at worst’.

Maybe the injury seems or feels like a too simplistic explanation to hear for Garver’s 2020 struggles, but sometimes things really are that simple. Ultimately, there’s little to suggest that Garver’s underlying skillset to hit baseballs incredibly hard has changed. His intercostal injury certainly seems like a plausible explanation why he would struggle to connect bat and ball, particularly after a strong early Spring Training showing in 2021.

Bottom Line: Don’t expect 2019 heights for Garver in 2021, but do expect a return to crushing fastballs, 25-30 home runs, and being one of the best hitting catchers in baseball.

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