Win Probability for the Wild 7th in Toronto

[Jham]

After leading in statistical probability of advancing to the ALCS for most of the game, the Rangers and Hamels found themselves in virtual coin flip scenario partway through the 7th inning.  After a lead-off single in the top of the 7th, the, the Rangers jumped to 56% favorites to win.  A sacrifice bunt followed which actually dropped their odds of winning 2% historically.  A ground out advancing Odor to 3rd put us back into a coin flip, with the Jays actually a slight favorite to win.  

 

Then one of the most bizarre plays I've ever seen.  I love playoff baseball because every single pitch means so much.  It could mean the season.  But who could predict a throw back to the pitcher could almost serve as the defining play of the postseason?  Unbelievable.  As the ball deflected off of Choo's bat and Odor crossed the plate, the Jays went from slight favorites to 2-1 underdogs.  The Rangers were 65% to win and advance at that point.  

 

Which means the Jays with much help from shakey Rangers D went from 35% dogs to 93% favorites after Joey Bats blast in the bottom of the inning.  

 

What a wild inning.  It will be hard for the rest of the postseason to live up to this drama!

 

Full live probabilities here: http://www.fangraphs.com/plays.aspx?date=2015-10-14&team=Blue%20Jays&dh=0&season=2015