DodgerFan1234
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Everything posted by DodgerFan1234
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This. And WAR is not always WAR when it comes to what a team is willing to pay. Pitchers tend to get paid more per WAR than hitters. The Pirates just got done paying Ivan Nova $8.5MM/WAR. Whereas a more consistent albeit older hitter in EE than Dozier got paid $5MM/WAR. EE's averaged 4WAR the last 4 years whereas Dozier has averaged 5. Chris Carter, a guy that hit 40 homers just last year is still looking for a job. Bautista and others are still struggling in this market. So, Dozier's alleged excess value is imaginary. JDL is a good headline piece. More will need to be added. But it's laughable hearing some people's packages based on "excess value" as the driver.
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The only good thing about yesterday's news is that my in-laws are die-hard Chargers fans. I don't like my in-laws. I
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Personally, I'm going with door #3. Dozier is not as important to the Dodgers fans as it is to the Twins fans and thus the boards are more dead. All of them. The Dodger fans here are the psychopaths that enjoy the lively conversation. For playing in such inhospitable conditions, Twins fans sure are pleasant people.
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The very sentence after that says that they tend to stay within .5mph of peak velocity through age 28. 0 brownie points for intellectual dishonesty. Hey, you supplied the article.
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1st paragraph of initial thoughts tends to contradict your and Nick's statement, but its still overall a good read. As far as separation, I stated that it was my opinion and it's based on hours and hours of discussions with a family friend that's a HOF pitcher and picking his brain about what made him so successful. He always seems to come back to separation, because yes, at some point velocity goes and it comes down secondary stuff and making each pitch look similar but act differently.
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Can you please point to some articles that show that pitcher velocity typically starts decreasing in the mid-20's? That's not at all my understanding but I'm happy to be proven wrong. Velocity is also just one metric as well. Separation (velocity delta between the fastball and changeup) would in my opinion have a greater impact on getting swinging strikes than strictly velocity. But again, I'm happy to read up on it and re-assess the value of DeLeon and his relationship to this trade.
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I love that Twins fans continue with the narrative that Jose De Leon is a "24 year old"(age 23 season) with a negative connotation tied to age when the player they are trying to peddle didn't do bupkis until his age 26 season. Fact is JDL was playing against older competition in AAA and had the highest strikeout rate in 4 years of any pitcher with a minimum of 15 starts. Not every pitcher develops at 18 like Urias or King Felix. That doesn't mean they are without value.
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Nothing stops the Tigers, Tampa, or some other team from picking up the same phone in the interim. First rule of negotiating to me is "he who speaks first, loses". It doesn't mean a deal gets done, but if Levine is blabbing about being in a position of strength, it speaks volumes about what he internally believes his position to be. As far as Friedman/Tampa, I think in part you're right. Just because somebody worked for a team means nothing to future deals. Often overplayed in the media. But as far as bad blood, the first deal Friedman did was with Tampa. Minor deal for relievers, but still.
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Greinke did not have the best year last year. The Dodgers not getting to the WS had more to do with MLB fixing game 4 in Cubs favor than Greinke. Calling AGon (clearly safe) out with the Dodgers having both the lead in the game and series was the largest single momentum shift in the playoffs. Hill was a fine and capable replacement for Greinke in the playoffs. The thing that honestly puts the Dodgers over the hump next year more than Dozier is health. The great thing about health, is that it's free if it happens. The combo of Kershaw, Hill and Urias need to make more than 42 combined starts (as they did in 2016). The Dodgers need to throw less than 15 pitchers in a season, leaning heavily on the likes of Bud Norris and scrubs like Tepesch
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Have you given thought to the possibility (and I limit it to possibility) that while you should be trusted that you do have a source (in the Dodger FO given the way you word things) that your friend may be playing you given the power of social media today. Your position has definitely caught fire to the point that historically credible writers have had to address the possibility of Alvarez in a deal.
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I honestly applaud your dedication to this at this point. Call me a skeptic. Mostly because I am a David and I have a natural distrust of anybody that chooses to go by Dave .
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Well, Twins fans thinking they were getting Alvarez on top of JDL gave me quite the chuckles, so least I could do was return the favor a little.
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Now get out!
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Wait. I only read 626,831 posts. I missed one? Now I gotta go searching. Crap!
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I sure hope so. Our long national nightmare has gone on for far too long. If not I'm going to start suspecting some Baghdad Bob level trolling going on.
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Dozier rumors. The only thing that wouldn't die in 2016
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What's Holding Up The Dozier Trade?
DodgerFan1234 replied to Nick Nelson's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
ROFL You're a funny guy! -
Absolutely has red flags I am not denying that. I would absolutely be concerned as an acquiring team about a shoulder issue in the prior year, but to say he "just can't seem to stay healthy" is a false narrative because the issue has not been a thing in the years prior to that. Also, using innings at age to me is as arbitrary to me as using wins to determine how good a pitcher is. "Errrrr, he just doesn't know how to win games," "he's not even a .500 pitcher" "being fully established by 24 is the standard" 'well, he's 24, must be a bust." All arbitrary.
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I'm sorry, I must have missed where 140 innings by 24 is "the standard"? Also, to your quote: "This post just simply isn't true. Kershaw was able to pitch 180 innings his age 20 season." He actually pitched 171IP (+6PS) in 2009 vs 122IP in 2008, which falls exactly within the range quotient I stated. #math Coming back the the age 24 hangup you have I'm not really understanding it. Some guys get drafted out of college at age 21 and don't really get started until the next full year in full season ball at age 22. Some organizations (like the Dodgers) baby these arms to protect them. That's what they've done with JDL. If you don't want to believe it because it furthers your narrative, fine. One of these Dozier threads has a list of well known guys who did not establish them until 24. Let me give you another example. In the 60's, an era when 325 IP was the norm, Sandy Koufax never topped 175IP through his age 24 season. Running with some innings pitched by age 24 narrative (if its some Twin thing) is a terrible way to evaluate talent. You evaluate talent baed on t-a-l-e-n-t regardless of age.
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I don't think this is an accurate statement at all. In the last 5 years the only guy I can think of that was a known prospect at the time going through the system that then needed surgery was Stripling. Kershaw came through the system and has been a workhorse for a decade before the back this year. Buehler required it before he entered the system hence why he dropped. McCarthy/Ryu/Wood/Kazmir were not babied through the Dodgers minors. As far as the Dodger philosophy of handling average or better pitchers in the minors they have a specific quotient. They aggressively push the level of competition but remain very conservative in the number of innings and go up 30-50% from the prior year once they have them at the top level or 2. So they may see100 innings top out until AAA or MLB. Then they ease guys in over 2 years. It's what they did with Kershaw. It's what they'll do with Urias and what they'll do with DeLeon should he stay. And who really cares about the Twins philosophy on pitching. For as good as the hitting development has been the pitching development has been crap. Exact opposite with the Dodgers. Just organizational philosiphies and hence why they happen to be decent trade partners at the moment. I (and any team in baseball) would rather get 100 good-great innings than 150 shyte-average innings. The Dodgers generally do a better job at finding those guys that will get you those good innings. Ask them to get you a decent hitting 2B and you get the shrug emoji.
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Kenley got married the weekend before signing. He went on his honeymoon when the deal in principal was announced. Therefore they haven't been able to conduct the physical and finalize said deal. Long honeymoon I guess.
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Saying JDL can't stay healthy is like calling Buxton a bust TBH. "But he's only had one good month!" Not fair and doesn't really look at the whole picture. I guess personally if JDL & Alvarez are in a deal I'd say pass if I'm the Dodgers. Forget about a 3rd piece in that situation. Let me spin another way to look at this deal. Let's say Dave's deal falls apart in the end and the Dodgers end up getting foresythe for say JDL and what would have been the 3rd piece for the Twins, the Dodgers would in essence be getting Foresythe and Alvarez for JDL and the 3rd piece. Personally I take a decent (not as good as Dozier) and Alvarez for less than the Twins deal. 2nd is still plugged very well and you take a flyer on the top international talent from the 2015-2016 class
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Any more specifics on "cave'? From where? Dave's JDL/Alvarez or from every other source's of JDL+(non Alvarez/Buehler/Bellinger)
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Anybody want to join me on February 2nd in Punxsutawney to see if we'll have 6 more weeks of Dozier?
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Same here. I referenced the fine website you do run with Moriyama and that (scab) Petriello and got accused of owning your website and referencing it for profit. I didn't think people could think so low of me until that moment
