Tom Froemming

With an ugly loss to Detroit Sunday, the Twins dropped to third place in the AL Central, and they’re now 2.5 games out of first place. The team had its opportunities to win this ballgame, but just couldn’t put together a sustained rally. The bullpen giving up seven runs didn’t help, either.Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays Per WPA (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx723.png Download attachment: TopPlays723.png The Twins had a golden opportunity to seize this game in the bottom of the seventh. Down 4-2, Eddie Rosario led off the inning with a single, which was followed by a Joe Mauer pinch-hit walk. Max Kepler laid down a picturesque bunt on the first pitch he saw. There was absolutely nothing Detroit could do with it, as Max got a single to load the bases. Jason Castro came off the bench and was called out on strikes. Zack Granite hit a ball on the ground that should have ended the inning, but instead was booted by Ian Kinsler, allowing a run to score. Just as it seemed the Tigers were going out of their way to give this game away, Brian Dozier and Eduardo Escobar both struck out with the bases juiced. Escobar’s at-bat was an epic 13-pitch battle. So, just to review, the Twins managed to strike out three times with the bases loaded and hit a double play ball (that was misplayed) all in the same inning. That’s tough to do. Here is that Kinsler error: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen723.png Monday Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Dodgers (Hyun-Jin Ryu), 9:10 pm CT Ryu, who made just one start over the previous two seasons, will be activated off the DL to make this start. He was recovering from a left foot contusion. The lefty has a 4.21 ERA, 1.40 WHIP and 8.5 K/9 on the season. Rumors swirled about Colon considering retirement, and the Twins tried to add Jaime Garcia to the rotation, so you’d figure one way or another there’s a good chance this is Colon’s final start. In four career starts at Dodger Stadium, Bartolo has a 6.08 ERA. Click here to view the article

Twins pitchers have been much more successful this season when Jason Castro has been behind the plate. Are there stats we can point to that prove he’s a far superior game caller/pitcher whisperer than Chris Gimenez? Or are there too many variables that cloud the numbers?One of the fun parts that came from the Twins signing Castro as a free agent over the winter was we had numerous writers take deep dives into the value of catcher framing. Castro has long been considered to be excellent at presenting pitches, and the numbers indicate he’s having another good season. Castro ranks ninth in the league in framing runs above average, but what about his game calling and ability to manage a pitching staff? Unfortunately, there doesn’t seem to be any good way of quantifying those things. Twins pitchers have performed significantly better when throwing to Castro than Gimenez. Is that trend likely to continue? That I’m not sure. In terms of framing, Gimenez is no slouch, either. He ranks 31st among the 83 catchers Baseball Prospectus has ranked. Gimenez also controls the running game well and, at least from the outside looking in, seems to be one of the more fun guys to be around on the team. Plus, he’s provided valuable versatility and has even hit better than Castro this year. If it sounds like I’m trying to butter him up before I drop the hammer, it’s because that’s exactly what’s happening. I like Gimenez, and think he’s a good backup catcher, but the following numbers don’t put him in a positive light. Overall team stats Pitching to Castro: 587.2 IP, 4.13 ERA, .758 OPS against, .286 BABIP Pitching to Gimenez: 267.9 IP, 6.30 ERA, .882 OPS against, .324 BABIP Castro: 26 of 65 starts (40%) have come against teams with OPS above league average. Gimenez: 10 of 31 (32.3%) starts have come against teams with OPS above league average. Broken down by pitcher (minimum 50 IP total this season) Ervin Santana Castro: 96.2 IP, 2.61 ERA, .664 OPS against, .244 BABIP Gimenez: 33. IP, 5.18 ERA, .745 OPS against, .172 BABIP Kyle Gibson Castro: 56.2 IP, 6.19 ERA, .879 OPS against, .323 BABIP Gimenez: 38.0 IP, 5.92 ERA, .912 OPS against, .342 BABIP Jose Berrios Castro: 42.0 IP, 3.00 ERA, .558 OPS against, .254 BABIP Gimenez: 37.2 IP, 4.06 ERA, .776 OPS against, .297 BABIP Adalberto Mejia Castro: 55.2 IP, 4.04 ERA, .754 OPS against, .279 BABIP Gimenez: 14.2 IP, 4.91 ERA, .915 OPS against, .308 BABIP Hector Santiago Castro: 60.0 IP, 4.65 ERA, .715 OPS against, .242 BABIP Gimenez: 10.1 IP, 11.32 ERA, 1.109 OPS against, .387 BABIP Phil Hughes Castro : 28.2 IP, 6.91 ERA, 1.046 OPS against, .388 BABIP Gimenez: 25.0 IP, 3.96 ERA, .709 OPS against, .263 BABIP I’m confident in concluding that Castro has been much better at the game calling/pitcher handling aspect than Gimenez this season. I’m less confident saying Gimenez has been downright bad at it. Santana has thrown by far the most innings for the Twins this season, so his numbers weigh heavily on the team stats. So this could be the case where, for whatever reason, Ervin is much more comfortable pitching to Castro and his splits have skewed the big picture. There is some debate whether looking at catcher ERA between two guys on the same team is even valuable, but it really doesn’t hold much value when comparing guys on different teams. I’m going to do it anyway. For what it’s worth (maybe nothing) Gimenez has the worst catcher ERA among all players with at least 10 starts behind the plate. If it sounds like I’m having a hard time drawing conclusions from all this info, it’s because I am. That’s where you come in. Let me know what you think. Full disclosure: I am a huge Mitch Garver fan, but I see no reason why he can’t coexist on the roster with both Castro and Gimenez (assuming they use a four-man bench). Along with catching, Garver has played some left field and first base down in Rochester. He’s having a fantastic season, but his ability to hit lefties (.996 OPS) would be particularly valuable on the big club. So I see Mitch more as a bench bat who can catch than a threat to take over as the primary backup catcher. Click here to view the article

Kyle Gibson had his longest outing of the season and everybody in the lineup recorded a hit, as the Twins celebrated a victory on the night they honored the 1987 World Series championship team. The Twins built a 6-0 lead and it appeared they’d coast to victory, but things got way too interesting in the final two innings.Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays Per WPA (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx722.png Download attachment: TopPlays722.png In his last outing, I thought Gibson looked pretty darn good against the Astros but that his defense let him down a little and he was left out there a batter too long. The result was that outing looked much worse on paper (6 IP, 4 ER). Well, it happened to Kyle again tonight. Gibson was shutting out Detroit through seven innings. He was sent back out for the eighth and got the first batter out. From there, he surrendered a single, a walk and an RBI double before finally getting lifted. Why Taylor Rogers came in at that point, I have no idea. The Twins had a five-run lead and Justin Upton, who entered the game with a .918 OPS vs. lefties, was due up. Hindsight is 20/20 I guess, but Upton cracked a three-run homer off the foul pole. So in a matter of minutes, Gibson went from having pitched seven shutout innings to giving up three runs over 7.1 innings. But to be fair, he seemed to benefit from a Miguel Cabrera-less Tigers team that had little interest in working at-bats. Gibson needed just 22 pitches to get through the third, fourth and fifth innings combined. To his credit, Gibson did pitch well and even managed to miss some bats. After failing to strike out more than four batters in seven-straight starts between June 8 and July 9, Gibby has now hit that mark in consecutive outings. Detroit managed to tack on another run in the eighth, but could not complete the comeback. The top of the ninth inning opened with a crazy play that at first looked like a foul ball, then appeared it would be a leadoff double, but Eddie Rosario gunned down the runner at second base.

I forgot to mention Eddie Rosario drew two more walks last night, extending his career high to 18. He came into the year with a dreadful walk rate of 3.3 percent, but it's up to 5.7 this season. He's got a .324 OBP.

This article beats around that bush in an almost annoying playfulness. I guess not.

Ervin Santana lasted just 3.1 innings, and it took him 95 pitches to get that far into the ballgame. The Twins couldn’t dig themselves out of the hole, but the loss didn’t cloud an exciting night at Target Field in which Tom Kelly’s statue was unveiled and the 1987 reunion weekend kicked off.Win Expectancy & Top 5 Plays Per WPA (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx721.png Download attachment: TopPlays721.png Santana just never seemed to be pitching with the count in his favor, and ended the evening with his shortest start of the season. Victor Martinez did the most damage, slugging a solo homer in the second before blasting a two-run bomb in the fourth. This was Ervin’s 20th start of the year. He has given up two runs or fewer in 13 starts. He has given up five runs or more in seven starts. There is no in-between, he’s either been great or ghastly. Zack Granite had a great game all around. He was 2-for-4, got his first career stolen base, scored a run and had an outfield assist. Ehire Adrianza, who’s getting more and more starts at shortstop of late, had a nice two-out, two-run single. Miguel Sano was 2-for-4 with an RBI and a run. The only extra-base hit the team could muster was a Joe Mauer double. Matt Belisle was the first man out of the bullpen, and he was excellent. Really. He pitched 2.2 scoreless innings, gave up just one hit and struck out three hitters. He threw 36 pitches, which was the second time this season he broke 30. The last time Belisle had thrown more than 36 pitches was May 26, 2015. Belisle hit a low point on June 11 when he gave up four runs to the Giants, seeing his ERA balloon to 8.59. In his 14 appearances since, the 37-year-old has given up five runs over 17.2 innings, just one of which was earned. He has a 0.51 ERA and 1.08 WHIP over that span. What’s been the difference? Well, I’m sure it’s a combination of things, but he's clearly made adjustments. One thing I had noticed is that he’d been relying less on his slider and deploying his curve ball more frequently of late. Here’s a breakdown of Belisle’s pitch usage by month last season with Washington. Notice how he leaned more and more on his slider as the year progressed: Download attachment: Belisle2016.jpeg And here is a breakdown of this year. Notice how he has gradually gone away from throwing as many sliders: Download attachment: Belisle2017.jpeg In April, Belise threw 77 sliders and just 15 curve balls, in June that split was 54 to 28. But here's the weird thing, tonight he threw a ton of sliders, 18. Exactly half of his pitches. So maybe it's simply being less predictable and using a more diverse mix of pitches has helped Belise better keep hitters off balance. Postgame With Santana Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen721.png Saturday Twins (Kyle Gibson) vs. Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 6:10 pm CT Zimmermann is coming off a quality start, but over his past four appearances he’s given up 15 earned runs in 19.1 innings (6.98 ERA). In 10 starts on the road this year, the right-hander has just one win, a 6.29 ERA and a 1.62 WHIP. He’s held Brian Dozier and Joe Mauer to a combined .217 average (5-for-23) with no extra base hits or walks. What can you say about Gibson at this point? We’ve seen him for 115 starts. He is what he is. Over his last five starts against Detroit, Gibby has yielded a 5.74 ERA with 19 strikeouts and 12 walks over 26.2 innings. Current Tigers hitters have a .267/.359/.398 (.756 OPS) line off Gibson. Click here to view the article

Prospect mavens across Twins Territory were bracing for impact all day Friday, anxiously awaiting details on the rumored Jaime Garcia trade with Atlanta. That deal never happened, but it was a good reminder that now is as good a time as ever to get acquainted with the system. There were plenty of notable performances Friday night, including Brent Rooker recording his first hit with Fort Myers. And his second … and third. Also, LaMonte Wade hit a big homer for the Lookouts, Tim Melville was brilliant for the Red Wings, Joe Cronin cracked a couple of homers for the Kernels and Akil Baddoo had a nice debut with E-Town.Find out everything that happened in the Twins minor league system on Friday. Glen Perkins had a big announcement to share on Twitter: Twins radio man Cory Provus elaborated during the big club's broadcast that Perkins would be pitching in the GCL. RED WINGS REPORT Rochester 2, Toledo 0 Box Score Tim Melville was outstanding, pitching eight shutout innings. He gave up just four hits, all singles, and walked a batter while striking out four. The 27-year-old right-hander now has a 2.63 ERA over six appearances with the Red Wings. The bottom of the fifth started by three straight singles from ByungHo Park, Tommy Field and Edgar Corcino, who drove in a run on his hit. In the bottom of the sixth, Rochester added another run when Mitch Garver and Niko Goodrum hit back-to-back singles and Kennys Vargas had an RBI ground out. Alan Busenitz pitched a scoreless ninth for his second save for the Wings. He’s thrown six scoreless innings since being optioned back down from the Twins, tallying seven K's with just one walk and two hits allowed. CHATTANOOGA CHATTER Chattanooga 4, Mobile 2 Box Score LaMonte Wade hit a huge three-run homer in the seventh inning and Dereck Rodriguez continued to impress as the Lookouts improved their second-half record to an insane 22-6. These guys are on some kind of a roll right now. In his seventh start since making the jump from Fort Myers, Rodriguez threw five shutout innings. He gave up four hits, a walk and struck out six batters. He really cruised through the first five innings, but opened the sixth by giving up a single and a walk. Rodriguez was lifted after 77 pitches in favor of Ryan Eades, who got out of that sixth inning, but ended up surrendering two runs over 3.1 innings. Nick Anderson recorded the final two outs, both on strikeouts, for his third save. Andy Wilkins hit his sixth homer and Travis Harrison was 2-for-4 with a double. MIRACLE MATTERS Tampa 6, Fort Myers 4 Box Score Brent Rooker started off his tenure in Fort Myers 0-for10, but he busted out by going 3-for-3 with a walk. Jermaine Palacios and Sean Miller also had three hits each. The Miracle scratched across a pair of runs in the bottom of the ninth, but could not complete the comeback effort. Sean Poppen is in the middle of an excellent season, but he struggled tonight, giving up four runs over five innings. Michael Theofanopoulos gave up another couple of runs over his three innings of work before Andrew Vasquez pitched a scoreless ninth. The big lefty has now thrown 19 scoreless innings for the Miracle. Brandon Lopez was 2-for-4 with two RBIs. Center fielder Tanner English scored three runs, stole his 18th base and threw out a runner at second base. KERNELS NUGGETS Cedar Rapids 7, Great Lakes 4 Box Score Kernels shortstop Joe Cronin made an appearance on the mound in a blowout loss Thursday night, striking out a couple of batters while giving up a run. Tonight, he made sure nobody would be thinking about converting him to a pitcher. Cronin slugged a pair of homers, his first two home runs for Cedar Rapids. Starting pitcher Evan Sanders had a very uneven night. The good: He only gave up two hits and struck out seven batters over five innings. The bad: He walked five batters and gave up four runs despite just the two hits. Colton Davis and Hector Lujan each pitched two scoreless innings out of the pen. Lujan, whose ERA is down to 1.63, picked up his ninth save. Lewin Diaz was 2-for-4 and hit his 27th double of the season. Caleb Hamilton was 2-for-3 with two RBIs. Aaron Whitefield stole his 24th base of the year. E-TWINS E-NOTES Bluefield 8, Elizabethton 5 (13 innings) Box Score Akil Baddoo was 2-for-6 with a double, two RBIs and a run in his Appy League debut, but the Twins fell in 13 innings. Bryan Sammons made his second start for E-Town and struck out five batters over six innings, holding the Blue Jays to two runs on four hits. Third baseman Andrew Bechtold made a costly error, his fourth, that led to two unearned runs in the eighth inning, but he also entered this contest with an OPS over 1.000 and added two more hits. Shortstop Jordan Gore was 3-for-6 with a couple of RBIs and second baseman Carson Crites hit a pair of doubles and scored three runs. Venezuelan product Jose Martinez was a stud out of the pen, throwing 4.1 shutout innings. The 20-year-old right-hander has only surrendered three runs over 18.1 innings (1.83 ERA) while striking out 16 batters and walking just three. GCL TWINS TAKES Twins at Red Sox, Postponed Just to fuel trade speculation, the Twins didn’t take just one regular out of the lineup, but they managed to postpone the entire game. No word on whether any of the players were hugging in the dugout. TWINS DAILY PLAYERS OF THE DAY Twins Daily Minor League Pitcher of the Day: Tim Melville, Rochester (8 IP, 4 H, 0 ER, 1 BB, 4 K) Twins Daily Minor League Hitter of the Day: Joe Cronin, Cedar Rapids (2-for-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI) SATURDAY’S PROBABLE STARTERS Rochester vs. Toledo, 5:05 pm CT, David Hurlbut (3.56 ERA, 1.37 WHIP) Chattanooga at Mobile, 7:05 pm CT, Fernando Romero (2.82 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) Fort Myers vs. Tampa, 5:05 pm CT, TBD Cedar Rapids vs. Lansing, 6:35 pm CT, Griffin Jax (2.29 ERA, 0.92 WHIP) Elizabethton vs. Bluefield, 5:00 pm CT, Edwar Colina (2.70 ERA, 1.13 WHIP) GCL Twins vs. GCL Red Sox, 9:00 am CT, TBD GCL Twins at GCL Red Sox, Game 2, TBD Please feel free to ask any questions and discuss Friday's games. Click here to view the article

Anybody else worried this will make the Twins front office look bad around the league? Especially after Dozier to the Dodgers talks seemed to get pretty advanced before fizzling out. As a Twins fan, I'm certainly glad they're not accepting trades they don't feel comfortable with, but I just wonder if other teams would avoid working with a team that had a reputation of being difficult (not saying that's the case yet, just wondering).

If they don't like Garcia's medical reports why in the world would they even still want him?

Ugh, I've been bracing for impact since the rumors started. If it's Brusdar Graterol, I'm gonna be pretty disappointed. He's just about to turn 19, so he's a complete wild card, but he throws in the high 90s. Not the kind of guy the Twins should be flipping. But I guess whoever they're trading away they must not like very much, and Falvey was brought in for his pitching prowess.

Hopefully the Twins are taking on 100% of what's left on his contract, I don't see why they wouldn't, in order to soften the return. But I'm sure it will hurt, the Braves aren't just giving him away. My assumption is whoever is going to Atlanta will be someone Falvine is not enamored with. Someone they don't believe will reach their potential.

Twins have been really good in close games, and when the pitching staff can at least keep them in it they usually win. Record in one-run games Twins 10-5 (.667) Astros 10-6 (.625) Red Sox 13-10 (.565) Mariners 13-10 (.565) Royals 11-9 (.550) Rays 13-11 (.542) Cleveland 9-11 (.450) Yankees 9-18 (.333) Record when allowing five or fewer runs Astros 53-12 (.815) Twins 43-13 (.768) Rays 47-17 (.734) Royals 40-19 (.678) Red Sox 50-24 (.676) Yankees 43-23 (.652) Mariners 41-23 (.641) Cleveland 40-26 (.606)

I'm saying they need those things to even have a shot at the division. If they stand pat, I don't see much of a chance they beat Cleveland (or maybe even KC for that matter). But once you're in, anything can happen. I wouldn't bet on the Twins beating a Boston or a Houston, either, but it's just a five- or seven-game series. I'd just like to see the front office give this team a fighting chance to get in. From there, anything's possible. Baseball has no obligation to make sense.

It seems like a lot of people are interpreting "buy" as in all-out go for it mode. I don't think the team needs to shoot for the moon and sell off the farm. If they could just get a seventh inning guy better than Duffey (who has a 7.59 ERA over the last four weeks) and a fourth starter better than then guys they've been rolling out there (Twins starters not named Santana, Berrios or Mejia have a 6.68 ERA this season), that would dramatically improve this team. Does it make them favorites? Good golly no, but it gives them a great shot to catch Cleveland. One thing about the postseason is it shortens your roster. More off days means you can rely on fewer starting pitchers and fewer guys in your bullpen. You could go with a three-man rotation. Kintzler and Rogers could be available nearly every night. Last year, Cleveland made it to Game 7 of the World Series with Trevor Bauer and Josh Tomlin in their rotation. Ryan Merrit made a start for them, for cripes sakes! They were able to use Allen and Miller in 10 of their 15 postseason games. This Twins team is nowhere near as good as the 2016 Clevelanders, but I do think they deserve a shot. A seventh-inning guy and a fourth starter would give them that shot, and I don't think it would cripple the system.

I voted sell in the poll, based on logic. This Twins team wasn't built to win. It would make sense to squeeze some value out of the veterans by selling them off to further build for the future. Compare the Twins roster objectively to the other teams in the race and you find some serious deficiencies. BUT Baseball doesn't make sense. It's frequently completely illogical. There's only 68 games left and the Twins are only a half game out. There are a lot of teams that were built to win this season that would kill to be in their spot. If the Twins can win the division, the only thing standing between them and World Series glory is needing to win 3 of 5, 4 of 7 and 4 of 7 again. We all know this, we know how the postseason works. But when I really take a step back and look at it I think "man, any team can beat any team 3 of 5 or 4 of 7." So I'm changing my vote to buy, just so long it doesn't mean completely draining the system. We'll just have to trust that the front office can correctly value our prospects better than the teams were trading them to.

Thank you very much. I appreciate the kind words (and assistance) That's as high a compliment as you could give me. I really appreciate the fact that everybody who built this thing up to where it is today has allowed me to take the ball and run with it as much as they have. It's really an honor for me just to be on here, so I'm really happy people are finding value in the content I'm adding. It hasn't been long, but so far so good. I don't honestly know if I could've kept something like this up last season, but how fun is this? You guys ... it's July 19th and the Twins are a half game out of first place!!! I spend plenty of time poo-pooing the roster and picking at the Twins flaws, but we're 94 games into this thing and the team is right there. This is awesome.

I'm fresh outta bells and whistles, would you settle for a kazoo and a wind chime? FYI, I also just added a really fun postgame interview with Zack Granite, via FSN North's YouTube page.

It's up now. Let's just say this was a road game for me, so I didn't have all my usual tools at my disposal.

The Twins picked up their first series win over the Yankees since 2013, as Jose Berrios pitched into the seventh inning and Miguel Sano delivered a big two-out, three-run home run. The victory also put Minnesota just a game behind Cleveland (at least for the time being) in the AL Central standings. Al together now! And we can build this thing together …Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx719.png The bats finally broke out and had a big inning, tallying six runs in the second frame. What's even more impressive is all six runs were scored with two outs. Zack Granite delivered a two-run single, Eduardo Escobar followed with an RBI base knock and Sano capped things off with a three-run homer. Yankee starter Jordan Montgomery got ahead of Sano 0-2, but he hung him a juicy curveball. Bartolo Colon's presence seems to have ignited some interest from certain parts of the fan base, but um, this Sano guy is worth the price of admission on his own. Maybe he doesn't have the freak show appeal since he's only 24 instead of 44, I don't know. The Twins also had a pretty exciting player on the mound, as well. Berrios, who's only 23 himself, cruised through six shutout innings. The Yankees finally got a run off him with two down in the seventh. His final line: 6.2 IP, six hits (all singles), one earned run, two walks, five strikeouts and two hit batsmen. Jose tried a season high with 108 pitches (65 of which were strikes). Tyler Duffey got the last out of the seventh inning with a strikeout, Taylor Rogers pitched a scoreless eighth (ho-hum) and Trevor Hildenberger finished it off with a clean ninth. There was some more curious lineup construction from Paul Molitor in this one. Jorge Polanco was the DH and went 0-for-3 and left three men on base. He's now 1-for-27 over his last nine games. Robbie Grossman started in left field and made an error. I guess things are always going to be a bit dodgy when you've got a 13-man pitching staff. At the end of the day, it was a big series win by the Twins over the Yankees. Good vibes all around. Postgame With Granite This is fun. After delivering his first two RBI as a big leaguer, Granite got a nice ice water shower via Brandon Kintzler. Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen719.png Thursday Off The Twins get to ease back into things in the second half, as Thursday will be the first of three days off between now and the end of the month. They'll host the Tigers for three games over the weekend. Click here to view the article