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Tom Froemming

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  1. I know I poked fun at Rhett in the article (which was all tongue in cheek, if that wasn't obvious), but he did a really nice job going in depth on that Buxton catch. His article over at MLB.com is definitely worth your time.
  2. I don't think I understood your first question, but no, the amount the ball is slicing or hooking is not factored into catch probability. The only things factored into that are the distance the fielder had to travel and the amount of time they had to get to the ball. So really, that almost does a better job at measuring a player's speed and route efficiency than anything. Calling it catch probability is a bit misleading (and there's a reason why MLB won't allow this stuff to be brought up in arbitration cases). And you're right, while Byron may have played that into a more difficult catch by getting turned around, the TrackMan map Rhett shared shows some curvature in the path the ball traveled from home plate. I'm guessing even that little amount slice is very uncommon on a ball hit to center field. Toss in the fact it was hit nearly 110 mph, and you have a very difficult read/adjustment. It's also possible the wind could've had an impact on the ball, and that's not tracked, either. So it is far from a perfect system.
  3. I could be wrong, but I think if you have the exit velocity and the launch angle, you can pretty much calculate the horizontal angle, as well. But, either way, hit probability doesn't factor in the defender at all, and unfortunately catch probability numbers aren't available on a play-by-play basis to us common folk. You can see leader boards of who has the most five-star catches and fun stuff like that, but there's not like a game feed that has that info for all plays, unlike the hit probability. The hit probability on Kepler's double play was 49 percent.
  4. Make it six straight victories. The Twins crushed the Tigers Friday night, scoring nine runs on 16 hits. At the conclusion of the game, Minnesota was tied with Seattle for the second wild card. It’s happening!Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx811.png The Twins lineup is suddenly a finely-tuned machine. Over their six-game winning streak they’ve scored 42 runs, an average of seven per game. The big blows tonight were home runs from Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, who both had three hits. Joe Mauer also had three hits for the second consecutive game. And, of course, Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco had two hits each. I suspect Polanco won’t actually hit .500 for the rest of the season, but he’s now 16-for-32 this month, has a nine-game hitting streak and multiple hits in five-straight games. He was hitting .213 at the beginning of the month, that mark is already up to .242. Along with a stellar night offensively, the Twins also had a couple nice defensive highlights. Byron Buxton made a great diving catch on the warning track in the fourth inning. Twins W-L Record Overall: 58-56 (.509) Last 10: 8-2 (.800) Last 20: 10-10 (.500) Last 40: 19-21 (.475) Last 80: 39-41 (.488) AL Central Standings Cleveland 61-52 Minnesota 58-56 (-3.5) Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 60-53 WC2: Minnesota 58-56, Seattle 59-57 (tied, Mariners game still in progress) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Download attachment: Lineups811.png Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen811.png Looking Ahead Saturday: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT Sunday: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 12:10 pm CT Next Series: vs. Cleveland Tues, Weds, Thurs. Click here to view the article
  5. Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) The Twins lineup is suddenly a finely-tuned machine. Over their six-game winning streak they’ve scored 42 runs, an average of seven per game. The big blows tonight were home runs from Eddie Rosario and Max Kepler, who both had three hits. Joe Mauer also had three hits for the second consecutive game. And, of course, Brian Dozier and Jorge Polanco had two hits each. I suspect Polanco won’t actually hit .500 for the rest of the season, but he’s now 16-for-32 this month, has a nine-game hitting streak and multiple hits in five-straight games. He was hitting .213 at the beginning of the month, that mark is already up to .242. Along with a stellar night offensively, the Twins also had a couple nice defensive highlights. Byron Buxton made a great diving catch on the warning track in the fourth inning. https://twitter.com/MLB/status/896171055429152768 Rhett (a.k.a. Wet Blanket) Bollinger pointed out that Buxton didn’t take the most efficient route, but that ball was smoked. It came off the bat at 109.2 mph, and Baseball Savant had the hit probability at 86 percent. https://twitter.com/RhettBollinger/status/896166884088741888 Later on in the eighth inning, Kepler made a nice leaping catch at the wall that resulted in a double play. https://twitter.com/cjzer0/status/896193119619829760 Kyle Gibson was rolling right along until BAM, his start was derailed, as so often seems to be the case. In the fifth inning, he walked two batters, gave up two hits and uncorked a wild pitch. Gibby was pulled with runners on first and second with two outs and Miguel Cabrera due up. Ryan Pressly came in and got Cabrera to fly out to end the inning. Pressly also pitched a perfect sixth inning, finishing the night with his sixth-straight scoreless appearance. The bullpen did give up a run tonight, it was Trevor Hildenberger in the seventh, but it was after the Twins already built a four-run lead. Taylor Rogers pitched a scoreless eighth for his MLB-best 26th hold. Tyler Duffey turned in a 1-2-3 ninth inning. Gibson has been the beneficiary of some strong run support and help from the bullpen, but it’s worth noting that the Twins are now 10-10 in games he has started. Postgame With Buxton https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/896201050692009984 Twins W-L Record Overall: 58-56 (.509) Last 10: 8-2 (.800) Last 20: 10-10 (.500) Last 40: 19-21 (.475) Last 80: 39-41 (.488) AL Central Standings Cleveland 61-52 Minnesota 58-56 (-3.5) Wild Card Standings WC1: Yankees 60-53 WC2: Minnesota 58-56, Seattle 59-57 (tied, Mariners game still in progress) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Saturday: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT Sunday: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 12:10 pm CT Next Series: vs. Cleveland Tues, Weds, Thurs.
  6. The Twins beat the Brewers Thursday night to win their fifth-straight game, putting them right back in the thick of the playoff picture. Dietrich Enns didn’t last long in his debut, but the bullpen was outstanding and a couple of slumping hitters busted out.Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx810.png Now that Jorge Polanco is out of his funk, the only slumping Twins hitters are Joe Mauer (.194 average over last four weeks) and Byron Buxton (.559 OPS since returning from the DL). Well, better make that were Joe Mauer and Byron Buxton. Joe and Buxton had three hits each, Miguel Sano had a pair of hits and, of course, Polanco collected two more base knocks. Jorge is now 14-for-28 so far this month. I haven’t had the chance to fire that through my Internet machine to analyze, but that seems pretty darn good. Enns walked in a run with one out in the third inning, and that was enough to get the hook despite the Twins holding a four-run lead. He gave up two runs (one unearned, but due to his own error) on five hits and a walk while throwing just 53 pitches. The average velo on his fastball was 89.6 mph and his go-to secondary offering was his curveball, which averaged 79.8 mph, according to Baseball Savant. Enns will still be searching for his first MLB strikeout his next time out, whenever that may be, but he did cross another big milestone off the list. He got his first hit. Like, first hit ever as a professional. Enns had zero plate appearances in the minors, which was evident as he struck out trying to bunt in his first plate appearance. Things went much better his second time up. Twins W-L Record Overall: 57-56 (.504) Last 10: 7-3 (.700) Last 20: 10-10 (.500) Last 40: 18-22 (.450) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Download attachment: Lineups810.png Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Bullpen810.png Looking Ahead Friday: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 6:10 pm CT Saturday: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT Sunday: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 12:10 pm CT Click here to view the article
  7. Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Now that Jorge Polanco is out of his funk, the only slumping Twins hitters are Joe Mauer (.194 average over last four weeks) and Byron Buxton (.559 OPS since returning from the DL). Well, better make that were Joe Mauer and Byron Buxton. Joe and Buxton had three hits each, Miguel Sano had a pair of hits and, of course, Polanco collected two more base knocks. Jorge is now 14-for-28 so far this month. I haven’t had the chance to fire that through my Internet machine to analyze, but that seems pretty darn good. Enns walked in a run with one out in the third inning, and that was enough to get the hook despite the Twins holding a four-run lead. He gave up two runs (one unearned, but due to his own error) on five hits and a walk while throwing just 53 pitches. The average velo on his fastball was 89.6 mph and his go-to secondary offering was his curveball, which averaged 79.8 mph, according to Baseball Savant. Enns will still be searching for his first MLB strikeout his next time out, whenever that may be, but he did cross another big milestone off the list. He got his first hit. Like, first hit ever as a professional. Enns had zero plate appearances in the minors, which was evident as he struck out trying to bunt in his first plate appearance. Things went much better his second time up. https://twitter.com/cjzer0/status/895815797599285249 Alan Busenitz was the first man out of the bullpen, making his first appearance since Aug. 1 and just his third outing since being recalled on July 24. Booze threw 2.2 perfect innings while striking out two batters. Sano made an excellent inning-ending double play to help him out of a jam in the third. https://twitter.com/TwinsHighlights/status/895840206003339264 Ryan Pressly held Milwaukee scoreless in both the sixth and seventh innings, Tyler Duffey pitched a perfect eighth with two K's and Buddy Boshers capped off an impressive night for the bullpen with a scoreless ninth. Since the Brandon Kintzler trade, the Twins bullpen has given up just three earned runs over 31.1 innings (0.86 ERA). It’s so obvious now that trade was simply a motivational tactic by the new front office. Man, those guys are good. Both Cleveland and Kansas City lost again, putting the Twins back into second place in the AL Central, 3.5 games back. At the conclusion of the game, the Twins were just one game out in the Wild Card race, but Seattle’s game was still in progress. With all the victories lately, you’d think the Twins would loosen up a bit and have some fun. But, as evidence from this behind-the-scenes footage from FOX Sports North, the fellas have been all business: https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/895845091465543681 Postgame With Buxton https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/895850990624096256 Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/895857350539530240 Twins W-L Record Overall: 57-56 (.504) Last 10: 7-3 (.700) Last 20: 10-10 (.500) Last 40: 18-22 (.450) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Friday: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 6:10 pm CT Saturday: Twins (Jose Berrios) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT Sunday: Twins (Ervin Santana) at Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 12:10 pm CT
  8. It's pretty easy to look at the pitching staff and predict doom and gloom, but on the flip side, what would happen if Mauer and/or Buxton got hot right now? Polanco's outburst so far this month has dramatically changed the offense and extended the lineup. If those two get rolling and Dozier stays hot, this team is going to be very difficult to beat. Joe has been getting on base, but he's been really slumping with the stick. Over the last four weeks he's hit .194/.371/.239 (.610 OPS). Buxton is hitting just .222/.300/.259 (.559 OPS) since returning from the DL. But in order to stay in the race, they'll have to start playing better on the road again. The Twins have one of the softer schedules down the stretch, but 29 of these last 50 games will be played away from Target Field. They got off to a great start on the road, going 20-8 over their first five road trips, but are 9-14 since. The very end of the season is particularly road heavy, as 10 of their last 13 games will be away games (3 at NYY, 4 at DET, 3 at CLE).
  9. I don’t know where Bartolo Colon found the cheat code that’s allowing him to do the things he’s doing at 44-years-old, but this sure is fun. Big Sexy followed up a complete game by throwing seven shutout innings against the Brewers Wednesday night, boosting the Twins to their fourth straight win.Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx89.png There are very few things I feel I know for certain about baseball, and one of them is that the game is very difficult. That being the case, how in the world is it possible that Bartolo Colon can make it look this easy? Big Sexy cruised through 7.0 innings of work, holding the Brewers scoreless on five hits and a walk. He even struck out five batters. Milwaukee only managed to get two runners as far as second base against Colon, one of who was after the Twins had already built a 4-0 lead. You know what? Jorge Polanco and Brian Dozier have also been making baseball look really easy so far this month. Polanco got the scoring started with an RBI double in the second inning. He had a single later on in the game, and is now 12-for-24 so far in August. The second run came on yet another Dozier home run in the third inning, which was his fifth homer of the month. Friday: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 6:10 pm CT Saturday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT Click here to view the article
  10. Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) There are very few things I feel I know for certain about baseball, and one of them is that the game is very difficult. That being the case, how in the world is it possible that Bartolo Colon can make it look this easy? Big Sexy cruised through 7.0 innings of work, holding the Brewers scoreless on five hits and a walk. He even struck out five batters. Milwaukee only managed to get two runners as far as second base against Colon, one of who was after the Twins had already built a 4-0 lead. You know what? Jorge Polanco and Brian Dozier have also been making baseball look really easy so far this month. Polanco got the scoring started with an RBI double in the second inning. He had a single later on in the game, and is now 12-for-24 so far in August. The second run came on yet another Dozier home run in the third inning, which was his fifth homer of the month. https://twitter.com/MLB/status/895452278186004480 The Twins tacked on two more runs in the seventh, one on a Joe Mauer reached-on- error and the other on a Miguel Sano double. Taylor Rogers pitched a perfect eighth and Matt Belisle struck out the side in the ninth. It was Belisle’s third outing in the past four games and it was not a save situation. Here’s hoping Paul Molitor doesn’t regret running him out there somewhere down the road. The victory gives Minnesota four straight wins, which is their longest winning streak since May 21-24. This streak has also put the Twins back to .500. Postgame With Polanco https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/895491100034572289 Twins W-L Record Overall: 56-56 (.500) Last 10: 6-4 (.600) Last 20: 9-11 (.450) Last 40: 18-22 (.450) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Thursday: Twins (Dietrich Enns) at Milwaukee (Zach Davies), 7:10 pm CT https://twitter.com/MikeBerardino/status/895480311164932097 The Twins acquired Enns in the trade that sent Jaime Garcia to the Yankees. He’ll be making his major league debut. The 26-year-old lefty has made just eight starts in Triple-A this season, posting a 2.38 ERA and 1.08 WHIP while averaging 8.1 K/9. To make room on the 25-man roster, poor Kennys Vargas is being optioned back to Rochester yet again. https://twitter.com/LaVelleNeal/status/895494846588301312 Friday: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 6:10 pm CT Saturday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT
  11. Silly me, this whole time I was sitting here thinking you were talking about Lord Voldemort.
  12. Check out the current wild card standings. 1st WC: NYY 59-52 2nd WC: KCR 57-55, SEA 58-56, TBR 58-56 (all tied) BAL 56-57 (-1.5) MIN 55-56 (-1.5) LAA 56-58 (-2.0)
  13. Brian Dozier hit the first grand slam of the season for the Twins and both Max Kepler and Eddie Rosario hit two homers in an impressive display of power at Target Field. Unfortunately, Adalberto Mejia was forced to leave this game early due to an injury, but Dillon Gee was outstanding out of the bullpen, earning his first career save for pitching the final four frames.Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx88.png The Brewers took a 1-0 lead in the second inning on a squeeze bunt. How adorable. After Kepler’s two-run homer, Milwaukee took back the lead in the top of the fourth, rallying for three runs. The Twins responded by scoring six runs in the bottom of that inning and never looked back. Rosario had a three-homer game this June, but tonight was the first two-homer game of his career. Kepler had really been struggling coming into tonight, posting a .162/.213/.344 (.469 OPS) line over his previous 80 plate appearances. Here’s hoping this gets him rolling. Speaking of guys on a roll, Dozier already has four homers in August, which is as many as he had in all of July. Twins W-L Record Overall: 55-56 (.495) Last 10: 5-5 (.500) Last 20: 9-11 (.450) Last 40: 18-22 (.450) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Download attachment: Lineups88.png Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen88.png Looking Ahead Wednesday: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Milwaukee (Brandon Woodruff), 7:10 pm CT Woodfuff, 24, will be making just his second career start. The right-hander pitched 6.1 scoreless innings against Tampa Bay while striking out six. He had a 5.45 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts this year, but that was in the PCL with his home park being Colorado Springs. Colon will be making his 518th career start. Last time out, he threw his first complete game since 2015. Ryan Braun is 5-for-12 with a pair of home runs and a 1.333 OPS off Colon. Hernan Perez is 5-for-6 with a couple of doubles off him. Thursday: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Milwaukee (Zach Davies), 7:10 pm CT Friday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 6:10 pm CT Saturday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT Sunday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 12:10 pm CT Click here to view the article
  14. Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) The Brewers took a 1-0 lead in the second inning on a squeeze bunt. How adorable. After Kepler’s two-run homer, Milwaukee took back the lead in the top of the fourth, rallying for three runs. The Twins responded by scoring six runs in the bottom of that inning and never looked back. Rosario had a three-homer game this June, but tonight was the first two-homer game of his career. Kepler had really been struggling coming into tonight, posting a .162/.213/.344 (.469 OPS) line over his previous 80 plate appearances. Here’s hoping this gets him rolling. Speaking of guys on a roll, Dozier already has four homers in August, which is as many as he had in all of July. https://twitter.com/MLB/status/895124308405702656 Mejia lasted just three innings, as he was forced out of the game due to what the Twins are calling left lateral upper arm pain. That’s somehow the most specifically vague description of an injury I’ve ever heard. Mejia gave up three runs on seven hits and a walk while striking out three batters. Tyler Duffey, making his first appearance this month, gave up an unearned run over two innings. Gee came on to make his second appearance as a Twin and was terrific. He threw the final 4.0 innings to earn his first professional save on any level. He held the Brewers scoreless while giving up just three hits. He struck out five and didn’t walk anybody, giving him eight K's in 7.0 innings of work for the Twins. Dozier, Kepler and Rosario all had three hits each. Jorge Polanco was 2-for-3 with a triple and a walk. Byron Buxton stole a base, improving to 19-for-20 in stolen base attempts this season. That total of 19 doesn’t really seem like a ton, but the AL leader coming into tonight had just 27 steals. Joe Mauer also stole a base, his second of the season. Miguel Sano returned to the lineup and went 1-for-5 with three strikeouts. Postgame With Dozier https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/895130739045302273 Twins W-L Record Overall: 55-56 (.495) Last 10: 5-5 (.500) Last 20: 9-11 (.450) Last 40: 18-22 (.450) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Wednesday: Twins (Bartolo Colon) at Milwaukee (Brandon Woodruff), 7:10 pm CT Woodfuff, 24, will be making just his second career start. The right-hander pitched 6.1 scoreless innings against Tampa Bay while striking out six. He had a 5.45 ERA in 15 Triple-A starts this year, but that was in the PCL with his home park being Colorado Springs. Colon will be making his 518th career start. Last time out, he threw his first complete game since 2015. Ryan Braun is 5-for-12 with a pair of home runs and a 1.333 OPS off Colon. Hernan Perez is 5-for-6 with a couple of doubles off him. Thursday: Twins (Kyle Gibson) at Milwaukee (Zach Davies), 7:10 pm CT Friday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Anibal Sanchez), 6:10 pm CT Saturday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Jordan Zimmermann), 5:10 pm CT Sunday: Twins (TBD) at Detroit (Matthew Boyd), 12:10 pm CT
  15. Stumbled across a couple more interesting tidbits. This win improves the Twins record in one-run games to 13-8, which is the fifth-best in baseball. Also, per Baseball-Reference, the Twins have attempted the second-most sacrifice bunts in the AL (33). They have the worst sac bunt success rate in all of baseball at 42 percent (league average is 64 percent).
  16. Got a few more things to pass along ... If you think the Twins have been bad with runners in scoring position you should probably go hug a Brewers fan. Here are their RISP numbers since the All-Star break: Twins: .219 AVG, .647 OPS, 73 wRC+ (ranks 26th) Brewers: .164 AVG, .537 OPS, 31 wRC+ (dead last) The Twins have continued their trend of loading up the bases at the highest rate in the league since the break. They have 37 PAs with the bases juiced. Only two other teams have reached 30 PAs, and just 12 other teams have even had 20 PAs. Both the Royals and Angels lost last night, so the Twins jumped up to ninth place in the AL and are 2.5 games back of the Wild Card.
  17. The Twins made their share of mistakes Monday night, but Eddie Rosario managed to force the Brewers into a blunder that ended up being the difference in the game. While on third base and no one holding him on, Rosario flustered the pitcher into committing a run-scoring balk that went down as the game-winning run.Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx87.png Rosario’s run made the difference, but the other big stories of this game were Jorge Polanco breaking out of his slump and the bullpen delivering another great performance. Polanco went 4-for-4 and hit a huge two-run double. It was his first multi-hit game since July 1 and just the second time all year he’s had more than two hits. Polanco had as many hits tonight as he did all last month. He’s opened August with a five-game hitting streak after going 4-for-51 (.078) in July. Paul Molitor has gone back to running Polanco out there at shortstop everyday again, and it appears to be paying off. Ervin Santana went 6.0 innings, was only credited with two earned runs of the four he gave up and had six strikeouts. For the second straight night, the bullpen shined bright. Trevor Hildenberger struck out the first two batters he faced before giving up a single to Ryan Braun. After Buddy Boshers recorded the last out of the seventh, it was Ryan Pressly who came in for the eighth. He walked the first man he faced on four pitches, but miraculously had a seven-pitch inning. His fifth pitch on the frame turned into a double play and he got the final out on a fly ball to end a two-pitch at bat. Molitor turned to Matt Belisle again for the save, despite the fact that he entered the night with a 9.85 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and 1.045 OPS against when working on zero days rest. Belisle answered the call and got the job done. Here’s the bullpen’s line from the past two games: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. All’s well that ends well, but this was not a very pretty win. The Twins had a difficult time scratching across runs tonight, going 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position while leaving 11 men on base. They left runners on second and third in both the third and fourth innings, then left the bases loaded in the fifth. In the sixth, they got runners on first and second base with no outs. Those runners were stranded. In the seventh, Rosario was at second with no outs after Milwaukee right fielder Domingo Santana appeared to lose his fly ball in the lights. With no outs, Paul Molitor had Buxton bunt him over to third. Rosario managed to induce the balk, but the Twins left two more runners on that inning. Twins W-L Record Overall: 54-56 (.491) Last 10: 5-5 (.500) Last 20: 8-12 (.400) Last 40: 18-22 (.450) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Download attachment: Lineups87.png Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen87.png Looking Ahead Tuesday: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Brewers (Matt Garza), 7:10 pm, CT Old friend alert! After a couple of underwhelming and injury-riddled seasons, Garza is back to being an above average pitcher this year. He has a 3.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and hasn't given up more than two runs in five straight starts. Mejia is having an encouraging rookie season, but he's going to need to start pitching deeper into games. In his 17 starts this year, he's thrown 100 pitches just three times and has gotten an out in the sixth inning in six of those starts. Click here to view the article
  18. Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Rosario’s run made the difference, but the other big stories of this game were Jorge Polanco breaking out of his slump and the bullpen delivering another great performance. Polanco went 4-for-4 and hit a huge two-run double. It was his first multi-hit game since July 1 and just the second time all year he’s had more than two hits. Polanco had as many hits tonight as he did all last month. He’s opened August with a five-game hitting streak after going 4-for-51 (.078) in July. Paul Molitor has gone back to running Polanco out there at shortstop everyday again, and it appears to be paying off. Ervin Santana went 6.0 innings, was only credited with two earned runs of the four he gave up and had six strikeouts. For the second straight night, the bullpen shined bright. Trevor Hildenberger struck out the first two batters he faced before giving up a single to Ryan Braun. After Buddy Boshers recorded the last out of the seventh, it was Ryan Pressly who came in for the eighth. He walked the first man he faced on four pitches, but miraculously had a seven-pitch inning. His fifth pitch on the frame turned into a double play and he got the final out on a fly ball to end a two-pitch at bat. Molitor turned to Matt Belisle again for the save, despite the fact that he entered the night with a 9.85 ERA, 2.10 WHIP and 1.045 OPS against when working on zero days rest. Belisle answered the call and got the job done. Here’s the bullpen’s line from the past two games: 7.0 IP, 2 H, 0 R, 1 BB, 5 K. All’s well that ends well, but this was not a very pretty win. The Twins had a difficult time scratching across runs tonight, going 1-for-13 with runners in scoring position while leaving 11 men on base. They left runners on second and third in both the third and fourth innings, then left the bases loaded in the fifth. In the sixth, they got runners on first and second base with no outs. Those runners were stranded. In the seventh, Rosario was at second with no outs after Milwaukee right fielder Domingo Santana appeared to lose his fly ball in the lights. With no outs, Paul Molitor had Buxton bunt him over to third. Rosario managed to induce the balk, but the Twins left two more runners on that inning. https://twitter.com/cjzer0/status/894753770747248640 Along with struggling to deliver timely hits, the Twins also committed three errors. With two outs in the third inning, Polanco made a fielding error on what should have been the inning-ending ground out. That was the only really bad error -- the only one that should have resulted in an out. The others were on misplays that resulted in a player taking an extra base. That same third inning, Buxton mishandled a slow roller and turned a run-scoring single into a two-run hit. The next inning, Dozier was changed with a throwing error that allowed a runner to advance from second base to third. Luckily that runner was stranded. In the ninth, Buxton again misplayed a ball that allowed the runner to advance from first to second with two out. That was also originally scored an error, but was updated to a double after the conclusion of the game. Postgame With Rosario https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/894765565360742400 Twins W-L Record Overall: 54-56 (.491) Last 10: 5-5 (.500) Last 20: 8-12 (.400) Last 40: 18-22 (.450) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Tuesday: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Brewers (Matt Garza), 7:10 pm, CT Old friend alert! After a couple of underwhelming and injury-riddled seasons, Garza is back to being an above average pitcher this year. He has a 3.68 ERA, 1.25 WHIP and hasn't given up more than two runs in five straight starts. Mejia is having an encouraging rookie season, but he's going to need to start pitching deeper into games. In his 17 starts this year, he's thrown 100 pitches just three times and has gotten an out in the sixth inning in six of those starts.
  19. I have a few more things to add this morning. -There are some people out there still pointing to the fact that the Twins are only 3.5 games back of the wild card. That's true, but there are also four other teams closer to KC for that second wild card spot (the Rays, Mariners, Orioles and Angels). -At the same time, both KC and Cleveland have cooled of late. The Royals have dropped five of their last seven games and the Cleveland club has lost five of their last six. Just something to keep an eye on. -The Twins bullpen has not been a strength, but on the year the unit ranks fifth in BB/9 (3.06) and eighth in ground ball rate (46.2%). They've also been overworked all year. The Twins have the fourth-worst quality start rate (37%) and fifth-lowest IP/start (5.4). -The Twins rank 24th in wRC+ vs. LHP (85), and have the fifth-worst slugging percentage vs. lefties at .379. Southpaw Brent Suter, who is starting for the Brewers tonight, has held same-sided hitters to a .573 OPS this year. For more on Suter, check out this great profile at Beyond the Box Score. He throws really slow and works really fast. Suter is a Harvard product, but was not a teammate of current Twins prospect Sean Poppen. Suter was with the Crimson from '09-'12 while Poppen pitched for them from '13-'16.
  20. The Twins were down 5-0 before they even came to bat, but home runs by Max Kepler, Brian Dozier and Eddie Rosario got them back in the game. Jose Berrios got off to a rough start, but got back on track, and Matt Belisle earned the team’s first save since Brandon Kintzler was traded away to Washington.Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx86.png This game got off to a terrible start for the Twins, as Berrios gave up a three-run homer to Adrian Beltre and a two-run shot to Joey Gallo in the first inning. But the Twins answered with a pair of second inning homers of their own, as Kepler and Dozier each hit two-run blasts. Rosario provided a solo shot in the third to tie it up. Twins W-L Record Overall: 53-56 (.486) Last 10: 4-6 (.400) Last 20: 8-12 (.400) Last 40: 17-23 (.425) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Download attachment: Lineups86.png Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen86.png Looking Ahead Monday: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Milwaukee (Brent Suter) Tuesday: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Milwaukee (Matt Garza) Next Series: Twins head to Milwaukee for two games. Click here to view the article
  21. Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) This game got off to a terrible start for the Twins, as Berrios gave up a three-run homer to Adrian Beltre and a two-run shot to Joey Gallo in the first inning. But the Twins answered with a pair of second inning homers of their own, as Kepler and Dozier each hit two-run blasts. Rosario provided a solo shot in the third to tie it up. https://twitter.com/BaseballByTom/status/894329813103718402 The only run scored in the game that wasn’t on a homer was on a bang-bang play. With two outs in the fifth inning, Robbie Grossman hit a ball off the right field wall. Shin-Soo Choo played in beautifully, and nailed Grossman at second base. Luckily Eduardo Escobar touched home just before Robbie was tagged out to end the inning. But it doesn’t get much closer than that. https://twitter.com/BaseballByTom/status/894330659996663810 This outing won’t look so good in Berrios’ game log, but he did a great job at collecting himself after a really ugly first frame. After a clean second inning for Jose, he had to sit through a 32-minute rain delay. He stayed in the game and retired the Rangers in order in both the third and fourth innings before facing five batters in a scoreless fifth inning. That effort, along with a great performance by the pen, allowed Berrios to pick up his 10th victory. Hildenberger pitched two scoreless innings and Taylor Rogers pitched a perfect eighth for his first shutout inning in seven tries. Belise needed just 13 pitches to record his first save since 2012, and just the sixth save of his 14-year career. He got Carlos Gomez to fly out, induced a ground out from Drew Robinson before striking out Choo to end the game. Miguel Sano, whose hand is still recovering from a hit by pitch from Friday, was out again. Dozier was forced to leave this game in the sixth inning due to an illness. Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/894319931872784385 Twins W-L Record Overall: 53-56 (.486) Last 10: 4-6 (.400) Last 20: 8-12 (.400) Last 40: 17-23 (.425) Last 80: 38-42 (.475) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Monday: Twins (Ervin Santana) vs. Milwaukee (Brent Suter) Tuesday: Twins (Adalberto Mejia) vs. Milwaukee (Matt Garza) Next Series: Twins head to Milwaukee for two games.
  22. I highly doubt Mauer requested a day off. Here's what he told reporters prior to the season: “I think there’s certain times of year it makes sense,” Mauer said of sporadic rest. “You guys know me, you ask me I want to be in there every night. There’ll be times when it makes sense [to sit] but I don’t think that’s a part-time deal. “You’re not going to play 162 [games] but my conversations with Mollie, it’s been upwards of that number. Not anything less. Like I said, I think our best chance is when I’m on the field and I’m trying to stay on the field.” This quote is from a February piece by ESPN 1500's Derek Wetmore.
  23. Yeah, I should've said Mauer's absence was understandable in a vacuum, because 1) I wanted to see him sit more this year, especially vs. LHP, and 2) baseball has no business being played inside a vacuum I would not have assumed, however, Mauer sitting would mean shortstops playing first base, but heck, Molitor has stuck shortstops everywhere else on the diamond during his time here, so why not?
  24. The Twins third and fourth hitters were Eduardo Escobar and Chris Gimenez. Ehire Adrianza was the starting first baseman. Also, Cole Hamels was on the hill for Texas. How many runs could we have expected them to score?Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Download attachment: WinEx85.png Hamels had his way with the Twins, carving up an “interesting” lineup. The veteran lefty pitched a complete game, with the only run he surrendered being unearned. Joe Mauer was getting an off day against a tough lefty and Miguel Sano was forced to sit after being hit in the wrist/hand by a pitch on Friday night. Both of their absences were 100 percent understandable, but since the Twins are still carrying an eight-man bullpen, Paul Molitor was very limited in his options for replacements. Kyle Gibson returned from Rochester, where he pitched quite well, to give up three runs over 5.1 innings. He threw more pitches (97) in that brief of an outing as Hamels did pitching a complete game (96). Gibby gave up seven hits, walked two batters and had four strikeouts. The Twins offense mustered just four hits. Jorge Polanco hit a double, the team’s only extra-base hit. That was especially nice to see, since he entered the night with a .465 OPS vs. lefties on the season. Dozier singled and drew the team’s only walk, but was also picked off while trying to steal second base to end the third inning. Eduardo Escobar hit a single in the fourth, but was thrown out trying to stretch it to a double. Buxton scored the only run on a weak tapper to first after he stole second base and advanced to third on a throwing error. The really fun highlights from this one came from the defense. The Twins, starting three shortstops in their infield in this game, resulted in some predictable problems in terms of generating offense, but the glove work was a thing of beauty. In the fourth inning, Jorge Polanco started a gorgeous inning-ending double play. Twins W-L Record Overall: 52-56 (.481) Last 10: 3-7 (.300) Last 20: 7-13 (.350) Last 40: 17-23 (.425) Last 80: 37-43 (.463) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Download attachment: Lineups85.png Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Download attachment: Pen85.png Looking Ahead Sunday: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Texas (Nick Martinez), 1:10 pm CT It’ll be interesting to see if whether or not Sano is able to get back into action for this one. In three career plate appearances against Martinez, he’s hit two homers. Martinez was hammered for seven runs over 5.1 innings in his last start. Berrios has been able to do an outstanding job at keeping the ball in the park at Target Field this year. He’s given up just one home run at home and has a 2.61 ERA. On the road, he’s surrendered eight homers and has a 4.38 ERA. Jose was phenomenal in his last outing, pitching 7.0 two-hit innings while giving up one run. Monday: Twins (TBD) vs. Milwaukee (TBD) Tuesday: Twins (TBD) vs. Milwaukee (TBD) Next Series: Twins head to Milwaukee for two games. Click here to view the article
  25. Win Expectancy (via Fangraphs) Hamels had his way with the Twins, carving up an “interesting” lineup. The veteran lefty pitched a complete game, with the only run he surrendered being unearned. Joe Mauer was getting an off day against a tough lefty and Miguel Sano was forced to sit after being hit in the wrist/hand by a pitch on Friday night. Both of their absences were 100 percent understandable, but since the Twins are still carrying an eight-man bullpen, Paul Molitor was very limited in his options for replacements. Kyle Gibson returned from Rochester, where he pitched quite well, to give up three runs over 5.1 innings. He threw more pitches (97) in that brief of an outing as Hamels did pitching a complete game (96). Gibby gave up seven hits, walked two batters and had four strikeouts. The Twins offense mustered just four hits. Jorge Polanco hit a double, the team’s only extra-base hit. That was especially nice to see, since he entered the night with a .465 OPS vs. lefties on the season. Dozier singled and drew the team’s only walk, but was also picked off while trying to steal second base to end the third inning. Eduardo Escobar hit a single in the fourth, but was thrown out trying to stretch it to a double. Buxton scored the only run on a weak tapper to first after he stole second base and advanced to third on a throwing error. The really fun highlights from this one came from the defense. The Twins, starting three shortstops in their infield in this game, resulted in some predictable problems in terms of generating offense, but the glove work was a thing of beauty. In the fourth inning, Jorge Polanco started a gorgeous inning-ending double play. https://twitter.com/BaseballByTom/status/894011268914348033 Not to be outdone, Escobar responded by making three outstanding plays, all three of a different variety. In the fifth inning, he charged in on a ball and made a fine barehanded play. In the seventh, he climbed the ladder to keep a ball from getting into left field. To cap things off in the eighth, playing in the shift, he made a great diving stop. https://twitter.com/BaseballByTom/status/894026808928161793 Ryan Pressly had a very encouraging outing, pitching two perfect innings while striking out a pair of batters. Taylor Rogers gave up a run in the ninth, and has now been scored on in six-straight appearances. Postgame With Molitor https://twitter.com/fsnorth/status/894032332427886592 Twins W-L Record Overall: 52-56 (.481) Last 10: 3-7 (.300) Last 20: 7-13 (.350) Last 40: 17-23 (.425) Last 80: 37-43 (.463) Defensive Lineups Here’s a look at the starting lineups from the past seven games: Bullpen Usage Here’s a quick look at the number of pitches thrown by the bullpen over the past five days: Looking Ahead Sunday: Twins (Jose Berrios) vs. Texas (Nick Martinez), 1:10 pm CT It’ll be interesting to see if whether or not Sano is able to get back into action for this one. In three career plate appearances against Martinez, he’s hit two homers. Martinez was hammered for seven runs over 5.1 innings in his last start. Berrios has been able to do an outstanding job at keeping the ball in the park at Target Field this year. He’s given up just one home run at home and has a 2.61 ERA. On the road, he’s surrendered eight homers and has a 4.38 ERA. Jose was phenomenal in his last outing, pitching 7.0 two-hit innings while giving up one run. Monday: Twins (TBD) vs. Milwaukee (TBD) Tuesday: Twins (TBD) vs. Milwaukee (TBD) Next Series: Twins head to Milwaukee for two games.
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