mike8791

The MLB meetings are officially over and many more questions remain than have been answered for most organizations. While the lack of activity, especially among the top player categories, has been surprising, there are some tentative conclusions that can be drawn about Falvine and their impact on the Twins. We recognize the jury is still out until the dust settles, but let's stop for a moment to look at the state of the Twins as of now, at least. There has been much talk about the opening of the Twins' window for contention. Last year, coming off a 103 loss season, there was little chatter on these pages about the Twins emerging as contenders. Essentially, the Falvines were given a pass on their lack of roster additions a year ago because of the improbability of making a great leap forward in 2017. Well lo and behold, a miracle occurred, the Twins won 26 more games, made the playoffs and Molitor was MOY. No doubt Falvine was as surprised as the rest of us, even at the trade deadline when they sold off rather than added. While they were subject to much criticism at the time, their moves were generally looked at as positive in adding longer term depth to a very shaky pitching staff. Now there is much talk on TD about how close the Twins really are to contention, not just for a wild card berth again but for a real strong run deep into the post season. Should the Twins bide their time, see how sustainable their 2017 season was, and make bolder moves next offseason or even 2012 or should they go all in now? This is really a chicken and egg question. If managment does little more than they've done to date, they are basically treading water for 2018, hoping on a wing and prayer that the young hitting core continues to improve, the few veterans at least match 2017 results, and a fair number of one year vets or rookies surprise and become larger contributors to a winning team. But isn't it just as likely some backsliding will occur(as it did in 2016 vs. 2015) if certain holes aren't filled? The simple fact is that it is up to the boy wonders to make sure the window not only stays open but widens. This is what Epstein and company did as the core of position players was rounding into shape in 2014, resulting in them taking major steps in free agency by signing FA's like Lester and Lackey to bolster a thin starting staff. It should be emphasized that the Cubs also opened the window wider by making so many astute trades to land the likes of Hendriks, Rizzo, Russell and Arrietta - without ransacking their farm system. Brilliant trading and drafting, combined with astute FA signings, catapulted the Cubs to a World Championsip in 2016. Some on this board might dismiss this comparison to the Cubs as stretching the point, saying that the Cubs operate in a much bigger market than the Twins. When it comes to media dollars, this is true to a point but let us remember the Twins have greater attendance capabilities than the Cubs and an owner reportedly the richest in baseball. The big difference really in the two organizations is new Cubs' ownership committment to bringing a championship to Chicago and went right out to hire a front office and field manager to accomplish just that. Has anyone seen Twins' managment making similar pronouncements? Everything we've heard from Twins' ownership indicates they wil;l support Falvine in their efforts and that money is not the overriding concern. There are some promising hints that this offseason might represent a departure in that the Twins FO is making a concerted play fort Yu Darvish, probably the top FA pitcher on the market. If, indeed, they accomplish such a signing it will be long-needed signal to Twin fans accustomed to a reactionary FO that things really are changing and that Falvine is pro active in actually sending a strong message to the existing roster that they are going to do whatever is necessary to bring a winner to the twin cities. Not that the signing o Darvish alone would assure a widening of the window to the extent enough to compete with the Indians, Astros, Yankees, etc. in a playoff series. The signing of Rodney as closer is a step forward but by no means turns the bullpen into a position of strength. A shutdown 8th inning(or 9th) reliever is almost a must to jump to the next level. A real RH DH is critical to helping sustain and possibly improve the lineup. And most importantly, one more solid starter must be added to shore up a woeful back end of the rotation. Relying on Gibson and Mejia to be part of a playoff bound starting rotation is more in the category of a hope and prayer. With Mauer's contract coming off the books after 2018, this is the time to spend the dollars and take the risk of trading top minor leaguers to land one additional mid to top rotation starter. So opening the window further is strictly on Falvey at this time. If they fail to add Darvish, all this talk about "crushing it" will be just words. Yes, they have done some clever things regarding roster managment but it's all window dressing for now. They must realize that the core who outperformed so remarkably in 2017 needs help - lots of it. If they don't act in the next few weeks(most major moves are normally made before the holidays) to fill these very real holes, then they will have Failvined in their responsibilities. They will have flushed it, not crushed it. There can be no excuses any more. The opportunity is there for the taking if they have the b...s to go for it.

Nice writeup Nick. "Crushing it" is a bit hyperbolic at thios point, as others hjave pointed out, but their small moves have impressed so far - from the draft to their multiple player transactions to their recent use of intl. dollars. Compared to the Ryan regime, these moves appear almost miraculous. But before we annoit the new team the saviors of Twins baseball they face the most important month, December, in their year + regime. With the MLB meetings next week, you can expect to see a flurry of activity. From past years,one can expect the quality FA's and major trades to be completed by Xmas(although the Ohtani ordeal threatens some delay in the timing). The Twins need one top-of-the-rotation starter, another starter that can slot in at #4 or #5, at least two and preferably three shutdown relievers, and one RH DH/1B who can fit into the middle of the order. Yes,I know, this is a major shopping list but the time is right for the move. The lineup is expected to improve, the veterans, Santana, Mauer, and Dozier have one, maybe two years left, and our pitching staff is substandard. If the Twins fail to get one of the widely acknowledged top four FA starters they must do something that Ryan never did(at least with a successful outcome), that is, trade for a top starter, starting with names like Archer, Cobb, Stroman or Gerritt Cole by agressively packaging their prospects. This would not only bring the Twins closer to contention for playoff success but show the players, fans and organization that this is a managment committed to winning it all. That's why they were brought in(at least that was the hype) and if they fail in this task this offseason, then any accolades bestowed upon them will be just fluff. I like the way this new mgt. has built the farm system so far but for now these are just crumbs. They've really made three major decisions so far - hiring Rowson and Alston and rehiring Molitor. The Rowson hiring is too soon to grade, though last year's improvement in hitting was encouraging(was this Rowson's doing or the young core learning from more abs?). Molitor's rehiring was a gimmee after the Twin's 26 win improvement leading to MOY award. The Alston hiring is still troubling as the Twins whiffed on hiring one of 3 or 4 well established pitching coaches available this offseason. Hiring a proven pitching coach could only have hel;ped in attracting a better class of FA's. Do the wonder boys know more that other exdecutives by bypassing these proven PC's or awere they just a little too full of themselves in trying to outsmart the competition. Only time will tell but if they whiffed on the Alston pick the needed pitching improvement will be that much more difficult. Was it worth the risk?

I certainly can't fault mgt. for taking risks.. This was one of Ryan's greatest faults. Nor can I fault Falvine for not biting on a Dozier trade if the only return was Jose DeLeon(an unverified rumor btw). And one can give them a pass(sort of) on doing very little their first year when they were assessing organizational strengths and weaknesses(though the state of the bullpen at the end of 2016 demanded a more robust response than Belisle/Breslow, IMO). But I have to question the hubris of Falvey and company in addressing the team's biggest need, improved pitching, when they reach far out on the limb to grab Alston, an undistinguished lower minor league pitching coach who went from one organization to the next without much upward promotion. The question one has to ask is: are F&L really that much smarter than the most experienced GMs in the league who quickly scarfed up some of the elite pitching coaches available this offseason? We all agree that the Twins' window for competing at higher levels is opening now. Can they take such a risk with an unknown PC at this juncture? How will Alston's selection affect the team's ability this offseason to attract top pitching talent? Would Ohtani, for one, be more or less attracted to a team that rolled the dice on an unproven PC or would the presence of a Mike Maddox improve the Twins' admittedly low odds of attracting high end talent in the off season? Put me down for an "incomplete" grade for our year old managment team. So far they've nibbled at the edges and done a little dumpster diving. It would be foolhardy, I believe, to give them too much credit for the Twins' 26 win improvement last year. Their inherited roster accomplished this jump. Now it is up to them to fill the holes we all agree on. Can they accomplish this in the offseason is the big question? Time to separate themselves from the Timid Terry regime and go for broke now as their young core matures. No doubt, all Twin fans will be pulling for them to succeed. Are the Twins the next Cubs/Astros organization to emerge? Too soon to tell, but so far the biggest decision of the offseason, i.e., Alston, has not been a promising sign.

The one year anniversary of the new Falvine Team has come and gone. We have a year's activity to judge this duo and like any new management there are some pluses and minuses, as follows: PLUSES: 1. The Twins improved by 26 wins over 2016. In truth, even F&L's biggest supporters would be hard pressed to attribute this improvement to their actions, as the only FA signing was Juan Castro and while he was a noted improvement defensively, he didn't come close to Suzuki's offensive contribution with Atlanta in 2017. The improvement came primarily from Ryan's young nucleus that started to emerge in 2017, especially Buxton, Berrios, Rosario and to a lesser extent, Polanco. Good years from veteran holdovers Santana, Mauer and Dozier played a significant role, as well. 2. Hiring James Rowson as hitting coach. He has been given credit for working with young players like Buxton and Polanco for their second half surges. How much of this improvement is due to Rowson's tutelage and how much due to the individual's natural maturation is a relevant question, but there is little doubt that the Twins' were a much improved hitting team in 2017 and for this, Rowson should be given some credit, at the very least. 3.The double trade of Jamie Garcia. While steeped in controversy, Falvine's move to acquire a solid mid-rotation starter for a low level prospect was a refreshing change from the previous regime who rarely dipped into the trade mart in midseason, except for adding several veterans at the deadline when the Twins were very much in the race in the 2002-2010 seasons. More shocking was their dumping of Garcia at the deadline for two prospects. While ccriticized at the time for waving the white flag, year end results affirmed that this was the right move, adding two good prospects without losing much in the way of rotation depth. 4. The pickup of Colon, while pretty much derided at the time, proved important in stabilizing the rotation in August when the Twins surged back into the playoff race. While Bartolo showed his age in September, his contributions in August provided a huge lift to a team struggling to stay above water. MINUSES 1. Failure to significantly improve the bullpen. This was the most glaring omission in Falvine's 2016-2017 offseason. Bringing in Craig Breslow and Matt Belisle as the only two outside relievers was a mistake from day one of the 2017 season. The bullpen was a glaring weakness in 2016, yet despite a good number of FA's available, the duo was surprisingly passive in trying to improve the situation. One can fairly ask : what were they thinking? 2. Failure to agressively go after a right handed bat that could be the primary DH and provide some backup at 1B. With the large number of DH-types available, failing to improve upon Robby Grossman should be looked at as a glaring omission in last offseason. 3. The trade of Kinsler at the deadline failed to bring sufficient return(at least based on Wheeler's MILB record). Giving a talented closer up for peanuts made little sense at the time and less so as we go into the offseason still looking for 2-3 late inning shutdown relievers. It was fortuitous that Belisle managed to fill the hole adequately and that Busenitz and Hildenberger provided a surprising bridge to the closer. 4. The hiring of Garvin Alston as pitching coach. I know, I know - it is much too soon to damn this move before he even steps on the field, but there are two reasons to doubt the veracity of this move. First, he has a very undistinguished coaching career, having not been a pitching coach above the Single A Minor League Level, having more experience as a pitching rehab coordinator than pitching coordinator, having been fired after a couple months as San Diego's pitching rehab coordinator, and never having any major league pitching success. And yet our wonder boards went out on a limb and hired him because they thought he was a good communicator. And this decision was made in an offseason when such worthies as Mike Maddox, Carl Willis, Chris Bosio and Jim Hickey were all available. Are F&L so arrogant to think they know better than all the top baseball minds who went with proven pitching coaches because they see something no one else has?? I hope I am sorely mistaken about this choice but with an open window to improve the team, the risk/reward ratio seems perilous, at least as of now. We are now entering the most significant part of the offseason - the GM Mtgs this week and the Owner mtgs next month. It's too early to tell what our new team will do. After years of torpidity under Terry Ryan, we are all hoping that Falvine will be up to the task. This means not waiting until all the quality free agents have signed elsewhere; no more Ricky Nolasco-type signings; no more dumpster diving for washed up relievers; willingness to trade top prospects for bonafide major leaguers who can fill gaping voids at the head of the rotation and shutdown relievers. Early reports(and yes they are in the infancy stage as of now) indicate the Twins will be significant players for top end starters like Darvish or Arrietta. As most Twins Daily readers acknowledge, with no #1 or #2 starter types in their minor league system, if the Twins are going to make the big jump to compete with the Indians and Astros, they need to find at least one potential ace. Will they spend the money to do this. Pohlad has always been quoted as saying he will authorize the money when asked by his GM for the right player(s). Well, this is the time to do that! And while the FA pickings seem slim, Ohtani should be high on their radar(by which we mean more than just sniffing around). They have factors in their favor to make an all out pitch for this guy. If they wind up settling for their usual average pitcher then mark down this offseason as a failure. The need is clear, but is the will and determination there? Reports that they are seeking the Red's closer by trade do little to add to our confidence. Even us amateurs know that there are enough quality FA relievers available to significantly bolster the bullpen. Why give up 2 or 3 of their limited number of prospects for a reliever when their needs in the rotation are so much more glaring. I would hope that the Twins would consider trading said prospects for a stud starter than for a reliever. In any case, the duo will now have to produce - in a big way. Their creativity and moxie will be tested to the max in an offseason that is a seller's market for pitching. How they do will go a long way to see whether the Falvey/LaVine team will turn around our 26 years of futility and bring a championship back to the Twin Cities. The clock is ticking!

A nicely balanced argument! Gets to the root of what bothers at least some of us about the off-season so far - Twins' have focused almost exclusively on Dozier to the exclusion of making any other significant moves. This is just not acceptable after a 103 loss season! What is so bothersome is there have been players available(Tyson Ross, Neftali Feliz, Greg Holland, to name a few) who could provide small, yet perhaps significant improvement in areas of obvious need. Adding a big bat would augment an iffy offense that could make a major jump forward or just as easily, sideways, Counting on first or second year players is very risky business, especially when considering the Twins' decade long stretch of futility in failing to develop their draft picks into solid major leaguers. As the Cubs blueprint shows it is a combination of trades, excellent draft choices, and free agent signings that lead to long term success. F&L have not had a chance in drafting yet(and their reassigning Deron Johnson is a start in the right direction) but they have been strangely passive in the other two areas. Hoping that the current core progresses significantly to achieve contention is not a strategy - it is a hope. We've seen enough of that policy under Ryan to remain sceptical that this is the right path.

I, too, take nothing away from Joe's former accomplishments. He truly was one of the greatest Twins/ ever - until concussed. As a fan, at the time I was happy the Twins signed him to a long term contract. But not so any more. With a long rebuild in store, isn't it time now to move on from the Mauer years? He has become a millstone at a position that historically has required above average power numbers. His presence limits the AB's of some players,e.g., Vargas and Park, already on the roster, not to mention the one or two year signing of a veteran free agent power hitter currently still on the market(Napoli, Trumbo, Davis) who by their very presence in place of Mauer improves the team and allows the younger players to develop. A franchise intent on turning things around would eat the $46MM remaining on his contract(perhaps by contributing a large portion, they might find a contender in need of a veteran bat). After all, this money is a sunk cost, anyway. If ownership is truly interested in building a championship contender as soon as possible, then the money should be secondary to unblocking position openings, like done with Plouffe. But if F&L's hands are tied by ownership to make such a bold move, as they have been with Molitor, one has to question the ballclub's true commitment to winning at all costs. Other than the monetary angle, there can be no other reason for keeping Joe on the field.

Don't buy argument that Falvey/Levine should be concerned about what the existing Twins staff feels or about trying to save Molly's job. Pohlad mentioned a total systems failure of the Twins organization and while he did not give carte blanche to clean house, as evidenced by his stated desire to keep the manager, it is obvious they have a free hand to make changes. A new scouting director is a sure sign, as is a new hitting instructor. F&L were brought in to turn this organization upside down and if some of the old-time employees don't like it, well, the exit signs are well lit. But F&L do owe it to long suffering Twin fans, if not to ownership, to right this ship. To go into the new season with a roster no better than last year's, which is the current situation 30 days from spring training, should be worrisome to loyal fans who have withstood 5 out of 6 years of ineptness. Failure to trade Dozier does not indict the new managment team yet, but failure to make any improvements to a 103 loss team leaves a great deal of uncertainty to what they are capable of. Patience is a virtue at times, but after sitting thru the many years of Ryan's inaction, I doubt many of us will sit still for continued ineptitude much longer. Hopefully, this roster will see some significant changes by midseason at the latest.

Appreciate your comments. I just have a couple: -Predicting the young core will improve enough to carry this team even to respectability is like drawing to an inside straight(which is why adding a strong veteran bat is so appealing, given it would take some pressure off the youngsters to produce immediately). Kepler had one hot streak which made his final numbers look like a bit of a reach. Any hot September streak, ala Buxton, must be viewed with a bit of scepticism given how many September phenoms flame out in his first full season. -A compelling reason for adding a Bautista-like bat is to protect a Dozier(or Sano) hitting in the 3-spot. Hitting Dozier first would not only be a waste of his power, but more importantly, would hinder Buxton's development as the ideal leadoff hitter he is touted to be.

Talk is cheap. Let's see the action! Problem is at this late date in the offseason, any "big" moves are highly improbable given that the most impactful free agents have already been signed. I held out hopes for a Tyson Ross signing, because that is the type of agressive, high risk deal this club needs at this juncture. Yes, they would have had to outbid a contendingh team for his services but wasn't Pohlad quoted as saying money is no object in improving the team. We'll never know what he really meant by this, but if F&L didn't go hard after Ross, I'm afraid that shows a certain timidity with the new boys that augurs poorly for any sort of rapid turnaround.

Thanks for your comments! Just wanted to point out that Falvey's appt. was made in September and while he was still employed by the Indians, it is fair to say that he should have begun his due diligence back in September. Reports from the December GM meetings had the Twins new managment team "getting to know" the Twins personnel. Shouldn't we have expected greater emphasis at that time in reshaping the roster - an action almost mandatory after a 103 loss season?

My first blog on TD site. Hope you enjoy!! As background, while terribly discouraged about the team's 2016 season, I must say there was a major silver lining : recognition by ownership that Ryan and Company had failed miserably in his second attempt at a rebuild. Finding new baseball leadership was a breath of fresh air this dormant franchise has needed for so long now. The good old boy network was finally broken with new, young, forward-thinking leadership with Falvey/Levine, or so we all hoped. While retention of Molitor was a dark cloud, as was retention of the pitching coaches, the 2016 postseason was something all true Twins fans were eagerly anticipating. Granted our new leaders have only been on board less than 3 months so it is unfair to grade this duo, but I am troubled by several patterns that have appeared so far that are strong indications that the new team might not be so different from the old. Let's take a look at some troubling trends: 1. Instead of firing the pitching coach, who has been of little help to veterans(Gibson, Santiago, to name two) or rookies(Berrios comes to mind here) in his two years at the helm, F&L fire Bruno who was certainly not a roaring success either and undoubtedly earned his dismissal and hired a guy, Rowson, who might be a great communicator but certainly failed to take the brass ring with both the Cubs and Yanks. When new ownership took over the Cubs, they started afresh but dismissing Rowson; similarly, while he was rehired by the Yankees as minor league hitting instructor, he was not promoted to the major league team when an opening arose. These are two organizations who wanted to win at all costs and went elsewhere for a major league hitting coach. That fact alone should send warning signals to an organization desperate for top level coaching talent. 2. The one offseason addition, Jason Castro, was hired essentially for his defense, especially his pitch framing abilities, or so we are told. Finding a good defensive catcher is certainly a real need for this team and this move no doubt represents an upgrade at a critical position. In terms of offense, however, his prior stats give little hope he will be as good as his predecessor, Suzuki, which is not saying very much. 3. While hitting is considered a relative strength of this lineup(at least compared to the pitching), it is still a leap of faith to think this will be any more than an average team hitting-wise in 2017. First of all, they have likely taken a small step back at catcher, they have lost a pretty consistent hitter in Plouffe, their run production was buoyed by a career season(most likely) from Dozier. But as most followers acknowledged, improved hitting on this team is largely dependent on a big step forward by first or second year players. The likelihood is some will progress, others will regress. The net effect of the new lineup looks, at least to this observer, highly likely to have some difficulty equaling last year's production. Obviously, this scenario can change greatly if both Sano and Buxton start performing like the all stars most experts think they could become. 4. As has been pointed out, surprisingly, some well established bats remain free agents, even at this late date. With below average offensive numbers at 2 supposed power positions, first base and DH, there is certainly a need for some additional offense. Remember the jolt Jim Thome gave to the Twins in 2010? Granted no one expects the Twins to contend for the division title this year, but that doesn't mean F&L shouldn't be agressive in going after the likes of Bautista, Napoli or Trumbo if they are willing to sign incentive-laden one year deals. But word out of the FO is that such a deal isn't likely unless the numbers drop significantly. This sounds like the thinking of a Terry Ryan who never met a free agent that he thought offered good value. Ryan's ;ack of risk taking was a prime reason the good Twin teams in the 00's could never get over the hump. Are Mauer, Vargas, and Park such valuable players that they should block free agents who could help? No, they will not bring us into contention in 2017, but their presence might provide a spark like Thome dis, especially by showing these young players that managment is committed to winning, both in the present and near future. 5. In turning to pitching, let's first focus on the bullpen, where going into the new season, more question marks exist than we had a year ago, when most of on this site were clamoring for dumpster-diving Terry to add some established arms from a relatively deep free agent class of relievers. As usual, Ryan did nothing, Perkins' decline accelerated, May proved fragile and unreliable, and Jepsen turned back into a pumpkin - a result most casual observers predicted in reviewing his past history, and the Twins' bullpen contributed mightily to a historically bad season. With more question marks going into spring training the new "brain trust" has done nothing noteworthy to give one hope for improvement in the new addition of the pen. Last year we saw very little help from the highly touted flame throwers in the farm system and yet, going forward, the new team seems to be relying on a wing and a prayer that somehow things will be better. Sound familiar? Nick had the idea that Neftali Perez would make for a relatively inexpensive pickup that would most certainly bolster the all important back end of the bullpen. That hope seemingly has evaporated with today's report that he is close to signing with the Brewers. 6. And of course we have to end with the team's biggest weakness - the rotation. Certainly, no one expects mgt to spring for big dollars on a free agent, particularly with the mediocre supply. The plan of swapping our one star player for immediate pitching help seemed to hold out high hopes for the start, at least, of a turnaround. Enough debate has centered on the impasse between the Dodgers and Twins that we won't try to place blame on either side for getting it done. The one fact remains: not trading Dozier for rotation help has to be considered a massive failure in the stated rebuilding process. I reqalize the market for Dozier is more limited than we had hoped, but an agressive front office must remain proactive in getting this done. Passive leadership will stress being fair to the Dozier family, set a deadline, etc., but this is not what a hungry GM does;instead, they must be more creative, work to uncover more willing trade partners, even in a multiple club trade, or take on an unwelcome contract if necessary to bolster the team's weakest link. Waiting for LA to stoop to giving up another of their baubles is just not acceptable for a team(and new managment) clearing in a rebuilding mode. BtW, this is not the rant of some Twin fan disappointed over the Dozier to Dodgers failure. Nor is it a prediction that the F&L boys are no better than the previous regime. It truly is too soon to tell, but the portents are certainly discouraging. The new team seems unagressive in fixing some areas of the team that cry for improvement. Obviously, one major move is not going to do it, but by now this group should have demonstrated more creativity and gumption than shown so far. This is a Ryan redux offseason. With statistics, new theories, etc., you can put lipstick on a pig but....... As pointed out earlier there were some excellent opportunities for making a bold statement to long-suffering Twins' fans - dave Dombrowski, Cherington, McLeod, et. al. Ownership went with a totally untested team. Unlike the world champion Cubs, who spent money to get the best people available, Pohlad went the other way, finding people who were unproven, who were no doubt much cheaper(and more compliant with ownership dictates) to add, and most likely not the best executives available. Unfortunately, total systems failures begin and end with MR. Pohlad. Until he sells this team to a group totally immersed in winning a championship, we will continue to see half hearted attempts to get this team to respectability, at best.