Alex
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Everything posted by Alex
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Please cite at least one story or report where the Twins matched someone's offer and they went somewhere else simply because it's "Minnesota." Then, find a story where they actually exceeded someone's offer. We have seen people reference stories where the Twins offered less than everyone else or didn't make an offer at all, so where has this idea of competitive offers and then FA turning them down come from simply because its MN? This has become a popular narrative for people defending their lack of spending money with no proof.
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Yes, marginal big league talent will struggle, especially when pushed from the minors in AA in the case of Dozier (his short stint in AAA at the start that showed he wasn't really knocking the door down). Doesn't that seem like an even more valid criticism then? Let's not forget that, especially in the case of Dozier, it was the Twins who were pushing and publicizing his readiness and thrust this "marginal" talent into a full time starting role. The fact that they sent him back down proved that they didn't expect this as "normal struggle" for even for first year players. They advanced and moved him too quickly, and here's the thing, most stat people saw it coming (his success coming as one of the older players in the leagues in the minors) but those that trusted the Twins to evaluate him apologized away putting it to first year struggles. They didn't even call him back up for 40 man roster expansions. The Twins are again hoping that a AA player makes the transition at a key position, and while I have more faith in Hicks for sure, it requires another leap of faith, not to mention they really didn't address the other position last year or this year. Believe me, I would have been happy to say I was wrong in that case, and I'd be happy to be wrong here.
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Just for discussion purposes, that's the big question and hopefully something that can be maintiained. Based on a scouting report last season that I read, minor league players that are patient can take a lot of walks because of the quality of pitching. The scout specifically said something about Hicks high number of Ks and high number of walks being because he took so many of both pitches, something that doesn't translate with as much success in the majors because of the quality of the pitching. I interpreted that to mean that while patient, he's not as discerning as you'd like to see.
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Totally agree.
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Right. My concern would be his AA success doesn't translate against big league pitching, and I think you get a better sense if he's actually ready or might need another season in the minors. I think it would be a shame if he's called up and after two months is on pace for 200 Ks and a .600 OPS and ends up getting sent down to AAA for the season anyway.
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No, it won't, but if he does well at AAA, it's more likely that those ratios are going to hold up in the majors. If he struggles more at AAA with those ratios, it would be a sign that he's not ready. I think it's tough to tell if a hitter like him is ready from AA stats, and frankly, I'm not confident in the Twins scouts right now.
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I bet the Twins offered Greinke more, too, but we don't have enough real fans in Minnesota, so he turned them down. ... (too much?)
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One other point of reference in comparison of Hicks to Hunter. Hunter had 2540 plate appearances in the minors and struck out 446 times. (He walked only 178) Hicks has 2110 plate appearances and has struck out 425 times. (Walked 313). If Hicks starts the season in the majors, I think he could be very prone to strikeouts. He does have a lot more patience but it would be interesting to see how major league pitching affects his numbers. I think you could see him strike out a ton (maybe 150 times or more) and not walk nearly as much facing the superior pitching of the majors. I still think that his patience will be an asset long term and hope it translates but those K levels should be a concern and will be the major challenge of his transition.
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I don't know. Their assessment of Dozier's readiness and putting Parmelee on the roster to start the season last year didn't work out that well.
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Interesting comparison. In AAA at 22 Hunter posted an .891 OPS in around 100 AB. Hunters's first two seasons were not impressive in the majors. His third season he crushed the ball and but still posted an OPS below .800 thanks to poor plate discipline and had an OPS + of 80. It's hard to say what would have happened with more seasoning, but the Twins certainly didn't get much out of his first three seasons. Also, it's a minor point but one of Hick's season's above .800 was 45 games in the rookie league. Look I'm not saying keep him down for the whole season, and if they start him I certainly hope he does well but some PAs in AAA wouldn't hurt, for multiple reasons.
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I just don't see the reason to call him up to start. I always like to see a player force the move rather than organization force the move. I also think if a player isn't really ready for the majors time up is mostly wasted.
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My fault for not including the tweet originally. I assumed it would be more universal information, especially as Nick Nelson retweeted it later.
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Brian Murphy @murphPPressTwins GM says Aaron Hicks leading candidate to secure CF job in camp and leapfrog AAA
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Sounds like Hicks is front-runner for the starting CF job. I'm not excited about this for several reasons; however, the options are probably slim. Was the last successful player called up from AA by the Twins Joe Mauer? Edit: Here's a copy of the Tweet: Brian Murphy @murphPPressTwins GM says Aaron Hicks leading candidate to secure CF job in camp and leapfrog AAA
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I agree that it's probably something to do with medicals. That said, you cannot lump Ryan in with those other GMs. No other (or at least most) shouldn't be as criticized for not taking a risk on Marcum because no one else had the need the Twins do. Marcum was also the last in a line of other available pitching upgrades that the Twins didn't get.
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Article: Scott Diamond looks to avoid sophomore slump
Alex replied to Cody Christie's topic in Twins Daily Front Page News
Fantastic point. This is exactly what happened with Dozier last year, I think even from the Twins perspective. They over-estimated both his readiness and talent and then punished him for it. As for the Radke/Diamond Comparison, Radke had some very good years, but early in his career, he struck out almost six batters p/game (except for when he was 22 in his rookie season). -
My point in cutting payroll is that these players clearly improved the lineup top down and they did it for good value. Doumit and Willingham were net gains over those two, both of whom thought Target Field should play like the Dome. Doumit turned out to be less of a replacement for Kubel than a replacement for many a Drew Butera game and allowing the Twins a back-up catcher who didn't kill them at the plate. I agree with the payroll issue, as well, but my point was that this didn't cost them a lot. This offseason, by comparison, they haven't really made improvements at all.
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No one is saying they could have turned this into a 92 win season. That's just as tiring a counter argument. However, they haven't even really improved them to the point of them hoping to be competitive.
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The Correia move is the cherry (or something else) on top. The Twins made more interesting FA moves last year that clearly improved the team and managed to do so while cutting their budget. Willingham, Doumit, and Carroll were all solid to good signings. However, they were filled with equally puzzling "scout" type moves, especially related but not limited to pitchers: Marquis, Gray, Dozier, Slama (?). The lone success was Burton. To add, their rhetoric around pitcher evaluation is equally puzzling and doesn't strengthen confidence. Whether or not this is a ploy, it's tough to tell, but they don't exactly have a staff that shows it is. Finally, there's the way they've handled injuries (Pavano, Baker). Considering their current status at the major league level I don't think the Twins have really done anything to disprove this narrative -- a narrative that is the sum total of all of these things and for which Correia's signing (not even him as much as the contract) becomes a lightning rod for it.
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Most people liked the trades, but I think to actually get positive marks, you need to make solid improvements in the major league team. What this offseason hasn't come with major question marks, heck, even including the trades? Worley recently had surgery, Meyer and May may not turn out to be starters. Every pitcher we signed is either a #5 starter or is coming off of significant injury. They spent no money to improve other positions (middle infield?) They now have a big hole in center (though again, I'm fine with the trades) and drastically weakened their OF defense. There's no way this offseason could look positive overall right now. In two years, we could be saying it was better, but we could also be saying it was a disaster.
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Yeah, but this information is just an accurate record of what happened. They don't tell the emotions, intangibles, or mystical connections Pavano and his teammates used (or failed to use) that won or lost the game . Perhaps the other team's wizards were just better that day and besides, if I remember it differently, your numbers don't matter. /sarcasm *To be clear, I understand that there are intangibles and that scouts certainly have access to information we statheads (some of us former baseball players and coaches, too) don't, but on some level, especially after 10 years in the case of Correia, I'd think they -- or their influence-- would show up in results. I also think that PIT wouldn't have demoted him to the bullpen if they thought he had these intangibles. Or, they would have traded him to another team that saw them if they, you know, actually existed. @ashburyjohn, seriously, great work and research is always appreciated.
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I really appreciate the research and you're right that it sounds like he was paid appropriately, but doesn't it point out exactly that the Twins were cheap in signing pitchers, which is really what the discussion is about? The Twins paid Pavano (at at time they were actually spending a lot more on payroll) $8M dollars a year, less than 39 other pitchers in baseball and he was their #1 and opening day starter. While this may be more than they will likely spend this year on pitching, I think where he ranked says a lot about the Twins desire, or lack thereof, to spend on pitching. Of course, that year from what I gather, there really wasn't anything on the market, so that might not be a fair comparison either and he did get one of the top 3 contracts that year. I'd agree that the Twins recently haven't seemed as afraid to sign their own players, especially under Smith, Capps was the only one I could think of recently...Nathan, Kubel, Cuddyer, and now Baker and Liriano have all waked. We don't have a lot of players who will test that anytime soon Morneau? though I'd guess he he'll be gone.
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Great point that while some of us may not care as much about the pitcher win stat, some teams still pay for them, including the Twins.
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Thanks for the response guys. Sound like it's a bit out of my league. I was hoping for an hour or two. I obviously had no concept!
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We've done this dance before and, IMO, being linked means nothing. It might not be as easy as I think, but other teams sure seem to be having an easier time than the Twins make it out to be. I believe that the Twins either a) arne't making offers or aren't offering as much as other teams. I don't think it's c) that they're making the best offer and it's getting turned down.