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Brad Swanson

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Blog Entries posted by Brad Swanson

  1. Brad Swanson
    A couple months ago, a bunch of extremely talented baseball writers came together to write a book about players who are not Hall of Fame worthy, but had careers worth remembering. The book is called The Hall of Very Good The Hall of Nearly Great. It is an eBook, it highlights about 40 players and it is amazing. It was a Kickstarter deal, and I can say I proudly contributed. There are three Twins profiled in this book: Frank Viola, Brad Radke and Mr. Battery-Magnet himself, Chuck Knoblauch. If you bid enough money on Kickstarter, you were allowed to pick a player to have profiled. I would have picked Gary Gaetti.
     
    Gaetti was a very valuable player for quite a few years. He was also a not-so-great player for a few years. 1986 was a year where he was an extremely valuable player. 1986 was also a pretty significant year for the Twins and its players. Tom Kelly became the manager, and eventually led the team to two World Series titles. 2 players hit 30 or more home runs and the same 2 players won their first Gold Gloves. Kirby Puckett was one player and Gary Gaetti was the other. According to Baseball Reference, Puckett and Gaetti shared the team lead with a 5.5 WAR. Puckett made the All-Star Team, Gaetti didn't.
     
    We all know that Kirby Puckett was the star of the Twins. What I didn't remember was just how valuable and important Gary Gaetti was to the Twins in that era. Here are some of his 1986 numbers: .287/.347/.518, 34 home runs, 108 RBI, and 34 doubles. Throw in Gold Glove quality third base play, and it is easy to see just how important Gaetti was to this Twins team. Gaetti was 27 that year and went into 1987 as the clear starting third baseman.
     
    Gaetti hadn't really had a good season before 1986. He didn't hit for much average, didn't get on base and didn't have much power. He was getting older and not really fulfilling a lot of his 1st round promise. Defensively, he was good, but his hitting was not there. That clearly changed in 1986. Gary Gaetti's 1986 season made him a pillar of the 1987 Championship team. He would stay with the Twins through 1990, when he left via free agency to play for the Angels. The Twins won the World Series in 1991 without him, but he continued to be a good (1991), sometimes great (1995) and sometimes not-so-great (1992) player.
     
    When I thought of the 1987 World Series Champion Twins, I thought of players in this order: Kirby Puckett, Frank Viola, Bert Blyleven, Kent Hrbek and then Gary Gaetti. That year, that order was about right. For that era, Gaetti was on par with those players and sometimes better than those players. All 5 are in the Twins Hall of Fame, right where they should be. Gaetti's strong 1986 made sure that he was remembered as one of the best players on a Championship team.
  2. Brad Swanson
    The Games
    Monday - Loss to Seattle - 1-0
     
    Felix Hernandez is the Maestro. I have no problem calling him that. Roy Smalley was saying that he really has 12 pitches, and I totally agree. He is truly one of the best pitchers of this generation. Liam Hendriks was really good too. He doesn't work quickly, but if he can keep runners off the bases and pitch efficiently, he can be successful. He has good enough stuff to get
    hitters out, if he trusts it. No offense to discuss here.
    Tuesday - Loss to Seattle - 5-2
     
    I watched this whole game and I don't remember a thing. Diamond was neither good nor bad. When pitchers put a lot of balls in play, sometimes they fall and sometimes they fall over the fence. Diamond is bound to regress a bit, but hopefully this is just a blip on the radar. Hisashi Iwakuma owns the Twins.
    Wednesday - Win over Seattle - 10-0
     
    When you follow and root for a bad team, games like this are really important. The Twins have lost so much recently, that you sometimes forget how fun it is to watch winning baseball. The team hit, pitched and fielded well in this game. Trevor Plouffe had a big game and hopefully it was a sign that he is going to get back on track and have a strong September. The Samuel Deduno that pitched in this game can help a team going forward. It was only one game, but as always, he deserves credit for that one game.
    Thursday - Loss to Seattle - 5-4
     
    I didn't watch this one (day job), but from the box score, it doesn't look like I missed much. It is too bad that Mastroianni couldn't have stolen home in the 9th. That seems a bit unfair though. Duensing pitched well for awhile, but couldn't get out of the fifth.
    Friday - Postponed
    Saturday - Win over Kansas City - 3-1 and Win over Kansas City 8-7
     
    Considering how hard it has been for the Twins to win one game per day over the last month, two wins in one day is a bonanza. In game 1, Cole DeVries was a lot more efficient and almost got through 7 innings. In game 2, Liam Hendriks pitched poorly, after being staked a big lead. I still like Hendriks more than DeVries, this doubleheader notwithstanding. Joe Mauer launched a grand slam. It was the Twins' first grand slam of the season. Chris Parmelee hit his first home run since being recalled.
    Sunday - Loss to Kansas City - 6-4
     
    Chris Parmelee hit his second home run since being recalled. Esmerling Vasquez didn't pitch particularly well in his first start. He walked 3 and gave up 7 hits in 5 and 2/3 innings. Brian Duensing pitched in relief; a role he will likely employ next season. Oh, Tim Collins pitched like crap and got the win for Kansas City.
    The Transactions
    8/29 - Outrighted Jeff Gray and Recalled Chris Parmelee
     
    I had some hilarious and snarky comments about Jeff Gray in my Pitchers that can Contribute post from last Friday, but I had to delete them when Gray was taken off the 40-man roster. No one will ever read those words. We all know that Gray was awful and Parmelee needed to be in the majors. Span seems to still be favoring his shoulder, so maybe Parmelee will get some playing time this go around. He has certainly earned the opportunity.
    8/31 - Recalled Matt Carson from AAA
     
    This is nice for Carson, but I honestly hope he doesn't play much. With so many younger and more promising outfielders on the roster, I am hoping that Carson is only used on occasion.
    9/1 - Recalled Esmerling Vasquez from AAA, Activated P.J. Walters from the DL
     
    We should all get a decent look at what these two can do over the next month. I don't expect much from Walters. His AAA stats over the last few years are very unimpressive. Vasquez was pretty good at AAA but not great as a reliever for Arizona the previous 3 seasons. It definitely does not hurt to give him a chance, as the season is lost anyway.
    The Injuries
    Denard Span - Shoulder - 15 day DL
     
    Time will tell if this injury is more serious than let on, but he certainly is missing a lot of time with this "minor" injury. Putting him on the DL takes the choice of playing out of his hands. To me, that is the fairest way to do things. I hate putting the onus on players to report their injuries. If they are hurt and don't play, they aren't tough. If they tough it out when they shouldn't, the can get re-injured. It is a zero-sum game. On the bright side, his absence could open up playing time for other outfielders, but that is a pretty morbid way of looking at things.
    Joe Benson - Knee - Needs 3 months of rest
     
    Wow, what an awful season for Benson. He has been terrible when he has played and injured the rest of the year. Hopefully, this injury will heal with rest and he will be ready for Spring Training. I still insist he has a bright future, but the bright spots are certainly not shining right now.
    Lester Oliveros - Out - Tommy John Surgery
     
    This is a bummer. Oliveros likely isn't headed for stardom, but he was young
    enough to see what he had. He'll almost certainly miss all of 2013 as well.
    Josh Willingham - Day to Day - Hamstring
     
    Doesn't sound serious; we'll see him in 2014. Just kidding; it was just an excuse to use a semi-colon.
    The Standings
    [TABLE]


    Team

    Win-Loss

    Games Back

    Last 10



    Houston

    41-93

    ---

    2-8



    Chicago Cubs

    51-82

    10.5

    4-6



    Twins

    55-79

    14

    4-6



    Colorado

    55-77

    15

    6-4



    Cleveland

    56-78

    15

    2-8



    Miami

    59-75

    18

    2-8



    Kansas City

    60-73

    19.5

    5-5

    [/TABLE]
     
    Although they have played better the last 10 games, The Twins seemed destined for a top-5 draft pick next year. However, if one team can crash the bottom 5 party, it might be Miami. They are pretty terrible. The Twins are going to have difficulties winning games with this pitching staff, but you could say that about a lot of these teams. Everyone points toward this 2013 draft being a weak one. Which to me is all the more reason that you want a top 5 or higher pick.
    The Future
     
    Arizona Fall League rosters were announced this past week. I have to say, I am not super excited about the names that the Twins are sending, but I'll get over it. It will be fun to watch Kyle Gibson pitch. A lot of the games are broadcast on the MLB Network, if you want to check them out. There are some very interesting names being sent from other teams though. Here they are: Javier Baez (Cubs), Anthony Rendon (Nationals), George Springer (Astros), Kolten Wong (Cardinals), Christian Yelich (Marlins), and Billy Hamilton (Reds) just to name a few.
    The Big Picture
     
    2014 could be a huge year for the Twins. They will be hosting the All-Star game (and the Future's Game by proxy, which is super dope) and it might be the first year in their movement back toward the top of the AL Central. I have been very clear that I do not see any sort of real contention in 2013. However, with some smart moves, prospects starting to contribute and a return to the budget that they opened Target Field with, 2014 could be a year that we remember along the same lines of 2001. There is still a lot of talent in this organization. Some will need to be traded away, some will need to be retained and others will need to improve and grow. However, 2014 is a year that I am very excited for. After the disappointing 2011 and whatever this 2012 is, I know I will be very excited to see what 2014 brings.
    Fantasy Tip of the Week
     
    Auction instead of drafting. Drafting is fascist. You have to fit these specific slots, you don't have access to all the players, and you just can't build your team the way you want it. Auctions are more democratic. Everyone gets to participate in all parts, but they can sit out on players they don't like. If you want to pursue the American Dream of owning Albert Pujols, Miguel Cabrera and Justin Verlander, you can do that. If your American Dream is to buy cheaper players to show off what a huge genius you are, you can do that too. So, I beg of you, give auctioning a try. It's the American Way.
     
    Have a nice week everyone!
  3. Brad Swanson
    Last week, I investigated which position players on the current 40-man roster can help a potential Twins playoff team. If you want to read it, click here. In my mind, the first possible contending season is 2014, although I feel that could be a bit of a stretch. For the purposes of this post, I am going to look at 2014 as the first year of the turnaround, which might be putting too much faith in the rebuilding process. There are some very interesting position players on the 40-man roster. Pitchers, not so much.
     
    Again, we will start at the bottom and work our way up.
     
    First, there are a few minor leaguers who are not on the 40-man roster, who likely will be a part of the 2013 and 2014 teams. Pitchers can really come and go, especially cheap pitchers. However, I don't see these arms as huge contributors, beyond potential middle relievers or spot starters. There are also a few AAA starters who could get a shot, but none really interest me long term. There is one exception:
    Kyle Gibson
     
    John Sickels of SB Nation wrote extensively about Gibson this past week. You should read it. In this piece, he states that Gibson still has the ceiling of a number 2 starter, if all things click. Gibson was drafted as a low ceiling, low floor pitcher. The fact that he will be fully recovered from Tommy John surgery in 2013 will give us a good idea of how close he gets to that ceiling. I see him as a mainstay in the Twins rotation starting in 2014 and I think he can contribute significantly as a young, cheap command specialist. I am very high on Gibson.
    Luis Perdomo, Jeff Manship, and Kyle Waldrop
     
    To save your time and mine, let's lump these three together. Nothing to see here, let's just move along.
    Lester Oliveros
     
    Oliveros has actually pitched well in AAA this year. He is young enough (24) to get a shot. If he can maintain his AAA strikeout and walk ratios, he could be an effective reliever. He hasn't maintained those rations when in the MLB in the past, but he is worth a look. I doubt he is pitching high-leverage innings on any playoff team though. He also had Tommy John surgery this week, so he won't be doing much of anything in 2013.
    Pedro Hernandez
     
    He has really good minor league walk rates and really poor minor league strikeout rates. I'll go out on a limb and say he has about zero upside. He could spot start here and there, but lots of spot starts don't typically equate to fantastic team success.
    Carlos Gutierrez
     
    According to Wikipedia, Carlos Gutierrez is an American former CEO and former U.S. Cabinet Member who is currently a Vice Chairman of Citigroup's Institutional Clients Group. He has previously served as the 35th U.S. Secretary of Commerce from 2005 to 2009. I don't remember any of this. He lost most of this season to injury and he will be 26 next season. His business skills must be pretty good though.
    Deolis Guerra
     
    Ah, the Crown Jewel! The most intriguing piece in the Johan Santana trade might finally be MLB ready. He is actually posting his highest walk rate since he was 19 years old and his strikeout rate is not good enough to mask it. It seems like we have been hearing about him for 50 years, but he is only 23 years old. If he can get his control in order a bit, he might be able to help in the bullpen. Of course, you can say that about quite a few pitchers and sometimes, it still doesn't work out.
    Alex Burnett
     
    Speaking of not working out; zing! That is unfair. His walk rate has dropped each of his three MLB seasons. But, his strikeout rate has dropped as well. In fact, he currently sports a nifty 1:1 strikeout to walk ratio. Nifty is the wrong word, I think I was looking for terrible. His ERA and WHIP aren't bad though. I do not know what to think of Alex Burnett. I think there have to be better options.
    Tyler Robertson
     
    Man, Robertson is a hoss. He is left-handed, doesn't throw all that hard, but has a good strikeout rate since being called up. Currently, he is walking too many batters to have long term success. If Glen Perkins closes next year, having a second lefty to go with Brian Duensing could be useful. The thing with all these bullpen guys is that they are so interchangeable. Many are so much the same that you can use just about anyone and get similar results. In 2012, the Twins drafted a bunch of college relievers. These guys could move fast and take the place of these mediocre relievers that are currently playing for the Twins. Most of these draftees throw a lot harder too.
    PJ Walters
     
    6.47 ERA in 87 MLB innings over 4 different seasons. The best thing that ever happened to his 2013 chances of playing with the Twins was the long term injury he is almost over. Oh, he also has an ERA over 4.5 in over 500 AAA innings. That seems like a big enough sample.
    Anthony Swarzak
     
    Swarzak isn't a bad guy to have around. A long man/spot starter can have value, if used properly. Instead of having a 13 man pitching staff, a properly used long man/spot starter can help increase the bench players on the offensive side. Ideally, an 11 man pitching staff would be used. This doesn't seem likely though. Times have changed and the long man/spot starter has a lot less value these days. Swarzak isn't terrible, but he can't start long term. So, he doesn't really have much value.
    Matt Capps
     
    Capps was once a useful reliever. Back when he was young and cheap, the Pirates used him as a closer and he had success. Washington signed him to a short term deal, he had success as a closer there and they parlayed him into a young, promising catcher. Let's not discuss that. Now that he is free agency eligible, he has not been a useful reliever. However, some team is going to sign him to a super cheap contract next year and he could pay off. He has good control to go with a decent strikeout rate. It isn't crazy to think that he could help a playoff team as early as next year. He will only be 29 and if he was just injured the last two years, he might return to the pitcher he basically was from 2006-2010.
    Carl Pavano
     
    I think Pavano is done with Minnesota. He might not retire, but he has been injury prone almost his entire career and will be 37 next year. I actually forgot how well he pitched in 2010, but that magic is almost certainly gone. Oh well, at least he had a mustache.
    Cole De Vries
     
    I have devoted a decent amount of words to Cole De Vries in my weekly notes. I am not a fan. He nibbles and he has no out pitch. As a AAA starter who can come up in a pinch, he's fine. On a playoff team, you really don't want a guy like this in your rotation. A team like the Yankees could use him I guess, since they can score a million runs and they are pretty much a lock for the playoffs every year. The degree of difficulty is just a touch higher here in Minnesota.
    Samuel Deduno
     
    I plan to spend a lot more time discussing why I have no faith in Sam Deduno, but not here. Let's just say that it is better for everyone involved if he regresses to the mean during September. His strikeout to walk ratio is below 1. I realize this isn't the only stat that matters, but come on. He isn't going to have long term success, based on the history of well, baseball. He was compared to R.A. Dickey and Justin Verlander during a recent Twins broadcast though. Not bad company.
    Casey Fien
     
    He's fien. Well, that was irresistible. Actually, he has been more than fine since getting called up. His minor league track record is actually pretty good, although he didn't start pro ball until age 22. He didn't have any MLB success in the past, but his minor league peripherals seem to have come with him to the MLB this time around. His hit rate is super low and he hasn't thrown a lot of innings, so he could certainly come back to Earth a bit. It seems like giving him a chance in 2013 wouldn't hurt too much. The point I made about younger relievers coming up does affect his long-term value a bit though.
    Brian Duensing
     
    Now we get to the "two players" portion of the roster. In this case, Duensing is one player in the rotation and one player in the bullpen. That one player in the bullpen is a lot better than that one player in the rotation. He likely was only put in the rotation this year because there were so many injuries. He is clearly better off as a lefty specialist. I made a crude Carlos Beltran reference in my weekly notes column on Monday, but basically Duensing vs. right handed batters = nonstop Carlos Beltrans. It is best to leave him where there are not nonstop borderline hall of famers facing him. As a lefty middle reliever, he can have some value.
    Liam Hendriks
     
    Liam Hendriks seems to be two different players as well. AAA Hendriks is dominant, MLB Hendriks loves home runs. He is still young and promising enough to figure it out. If he does, he can be a 3 or a 4 in a good rotation. I hope he doesn't have to ever masquerade as a 1 or a 2 though. A playoff Twins team in 2014 likely depends on Hendriks at the end of the rotation.
    Scott Baker
     
    There are two Scott Bakers as well, because I love this gimmick. Scott Baker healthy is great. Scott Baker injured is injured. Unfortunately, Scott Baker injured seems to be more common. It is a shame because his season last year was really fantastic. He was finally getting good results to go with his excellent peripheral stats. Scott Baker injured showed up and then stuck around through the offseason. Hopefully, he can come back from Tommy John and pick up where he left off. I am a huge advocate for finding out if he can as a Twin. I hope they sign him to a one or even two year deal and see what he has. He will only be 31 next year, so he could still have 4-5 good years left. At this point, given his injury history, it is very hard to rely on him as an impact player going forward. If anyone on this list can exceed expectations, it is Baker.
    Scott Diamond
     
    Every statistical bone in my body says that his success cannot be sustained. His strikeout rate is just way too low. Throw in the fact that he wasn't much of a prospect at any point and the fact that he was taken in the rule 5 draft, and it just doesn't add up. However, I have a hard time arguing with his results. He just doesn't walk anyone, ever. He basically is the left-handed Brad Radke (or at least he has been for half a season). I want to see it repeated at least once. If he has a comparable season in 2013, then I will be ready to admit that he is a statistical anomaly. Anomalies exist, so it is certainly possible. I still don't think a good Twins team is relying on Scott Diamond to pitch a Game 1 or Game 2 in the playoffs, but maybe Game 3? A pretty decent statistical comparison for Diamond is Mark Buehrle. Although, Diamond actually gets more groundballs and has a lower walk rate. Again, he has to repeat it, but it's possible.
    Jared Burton
     
    Jared Burton was a really nice find. He has cut his walks down significantly since his days in Cincinnati and it has made him into a really good pitcher. His surface stats are fully supported by the peripheral stats. Having a good, cheap set-up man or closer is very valuable. He does hit free agency in 2014, which is worrisome. It is especially worrisome if he closes next year. Saves are expensive. It is possible that he falls victim to the young relievers that are coming down the line as well. If he pitches like he has this year, he can help any team. If he gets expensive, I hope it happens elsewhere.
    Glen Perkins
     
    The brightest star in the Twins pitching sky just happens to be a failed starter. This is not entirely unique, as a lot of relievers are failed starters. Not all failed starters take to the bullpen as easily and dominantly as Perkins has. He has good stuff, a good strikeout rate and a good walk rate. I also think he has something that some would argue does not exist: the closer mentality. I will always believe that some pitchers just can't handle the 9th inning, regardless of the numbers not supporting that claim. Arguing against the concept of a closer mentality argues against the concept of human psychology, in my opinion. Ok, that is a separate subject for another day. Perkins is great though. There really isn't much more to say. He looks calm on the mound, he throws a good fastball and he isn't afraid to go right at hitters. I really like him and I am glad they locked him up cheaply for a few years.
    In summary
     
    In my opinion, the following players will play a significant role on a future Twins playoff team:
    Glen Perkins, Kyle Gibson, Scott Baker (if resigned)
     
    The following players could play a significant role, if the Twins contend in 2014:
    Jared Burton
     
    The following players could play a smaller but maybe not significant role on a good Twins team:
    Brian Duensing, Liam Hendriks, Scott Diamond
     
    It is too early to tell, but these young players are exciting and could contribute:
    None
     
    The remaining players either will not be around, or will not contribute positively.
     
    What do you think of this list?
  4. Brad Swanson
    Niko Goodrum is far from an elite prospect. He was a 2nd round pick in 2010 out of a high school in Georgia. Baseball America and Kevin Goldstein of Baseball Prospectus both listed Goodrum as the 19th best prospect in what is generally considered a weak Twins farm system. Aaron Gleeman listed him 16th and Seth Stohs listed him 19th. Jonathan Mayo of MLB.com did not have him in his top 20 and Keith Law did not have him in his top 10 (which really should not surprise you if you read the previous few sentences). The rankings are not exciting, but at the same time, I can't help but have an interest in this particular player.
     
    I am not going to pretend that I have seen any more of Goodrum than a few YouTube clips, but I will say that what I have read about him has me intrigued. He is listed at 6' 3" and 175 lbs. He is only 20 years old, so he will likely add some size. If he can, the height could help produce and upward lift and some powerful swings. He has a very strong arm and according to the Baseball America Prospect Handbook, he is a hard worker, which we all know goes a lot way in this organization (probably all others too). The fact that he runs well could result in a player that plays up the middle, can steal some bases and hit for some power. That kind of player has immense value.
     
    However, his projectable size could work against him as well. If he fills out too much, he may slow down and lose range. If that happens, he may have to move off of short. There is also the possibility that he never fills out and doesn't hit enough to play any position. In addition, Goodrum is somewhat old for rookie ball, and his stats aren't eye-popping for a player repeating a level. Frankly, his numbers aren't that exciting for a player in his first year at that level. His numbers point toward decent to good on-base skills, with little power. His K:BB ratio is good, but it is hard for me to know how much that represents a more patient hitter or an inexperienced set of pitching staffs. His walk rate has increased from last year, and he deserves credit for that.
     
    I have read that some think he may be a future centerfielder, which could be great. Personally, I think that third base could be a landing spot, especially if he does add some power to his game. He clearly has the arm strength for that position and working hard to learn the position seems like something he would be willing to do. The nice thing is that he does seem to be a player who will be versatile enough in the field to find a home, as he was working a bit at second base last year as well.
     
    I would think that Goodrum would go to Beloit next year, as a 21 year old entering his third full pro season. The odds of seeing Goodrum in Minnesota before 2015 are pretty small. In fact, there are pretty good odds that he never gets to Minnesota at all. That is just the way of the minor league world though. Most minor leaguers don't get to the Majors. In fact, most minor leaguers aren't prospects at all, for this very reason. As far as I am concerned, there are two types of minor league players. There are guys with upside and guys without upside. Niko Goodrum has upside, which makes him a prospect and makes him interesting to me.
  5. Brad Swanson
    Here is a fun 14 minute version of You Can't Quit Me Baby, by Queens of the Stone Age to accompany these notes.
    The Games
    Monday - Win over Oakland - 7-2
     
    WHOOO! Monday wins count double right? Oh, they don't. Well, at least they stopped the losing streak. Brandon McCarthy was awful in this game. He didn't command any of his pitches and he looked to be nibbling a lot. The Twins took advantage and Brian Duensing gave them a good start.
    Tuesday - Loss to Oakland -4-1
     
    Cole DeVries does not have an out pitch, in my opinion. That is likely why he wasn't a prospect and why he isn't long for the big leagues. He is a nice story, and he comes from the state that I come from, but I don't see him being successful for multiple years. He isn't efficient with his pitches and while he can get hitters down 0-2 in counts, he doesn't have a pitch that can put them away. This leads to high pitch counts and short starts.
    Wednesday - Loss to Oakland - 5-1
     
    Liam Hendriks is back and he didn't give up a home run! He also didn't pitch well. The offense couldn't get anything going against Tommy Milone. Did you guys know that there is a lot of foul territory in Oakland?
    Thursday - Loss to Texas - 10-6
     
    I am not a fan of the "eye for an eye" code of baseball. I don't like things that are done just because "that's the way things have always been done." Diamond likely was tossed because the ball was too close to Hamilton's head. I think that if he connected in the back or ribs, he would have stayed in the game. The ump really had no choice when he missed high like that. It was good that the fireworks stopped after that. That 8th inning was hard to watch.
    Friday - Loss to Texas - 8-0
     
    Well, the Twins were nearly no-hit and gave up a cycle to Adrian Beltre. It would have been interesting had both happened, instead it was just the 4th straight loss for a team that is starting to look like it might lose 99 games again. Sam Deduno regressed before our very eyes, although he only walked one batter. He also did not strike anyone out. This game could have been worse, as Deduno had 2 double plays turned behind him and a runner picked off of first base. His WHIP is now 1.667 for the season. A pitcher cannot be successful when putting 5 batters on base every three innings, just ask Nick Blackburn.
    Saturday - Loss to Texas - 9-3
     
    Brian Duensing was not effective at all. It does seem that in a perfect world, he would be a lefty specialist. He just doesn't get right handed hitters out. His OPS against vs. righty handed batters is .856. That is roughly Carlos Beltran's OPS for his career. So Duensing basically faces Carlos Beltran every time he faces a right handed batter. Or something like that (it's actually nothing like that). He is still better off in the bullpen long term.
    Sunday - Win over Texas - 6-5
     
    Cole De Vries was fine. He really was nothing more than that. He pitched poorly in the first inning and then settled down. It took him 98 pitches to get through 19 batters though. Denard Span and Ben Revere did a great job of setting the table in this game. Ah, Jeff Gray... Jeff Gray won't be a Twin much longer, so that is something. Glen Perkins was great. His emergence is one of the few obvious bright spots from these past two years.
    The Transactions
    8/20 - Outrighted Tsuyoshi Nishioka and Nick Blackburn to AAA.
     
    I covered this in an emergency blog last week. If you want, check it out.
    8/21 - Called up Liam Hendriks from AAA.
     
    With the injuries to the starting pitching, and Hendriks' great pitching at AAA, this was a no brainer. He didn't pitch all that well on Wednesday, but he should be given a shot to work out his MLB struggles when it really doesn't matter much for the team. He does seem to be the one promising, young starter in the system without major injury issues. His good control and semi-decent strikeout potential could make him a reasonable 4th or 5th starter down the line.
    8/24 - Optioned Matt Carson to AAA, Recalled Kyle Waldrop
     
    This was done because Scott Diamond was ejected after 2+ innings the previous night. Waldrop pitched Friday night. Carson will be back soon, although I don't expect his "good" hitting to continue.
    The Injuries
     
    There are no new injuries to report this week, but there are a few updates.
    Carl Pavano - out for the season
     
    Pavano has a bone bruise and now will not pitch again this season. He is almost certainly done with the Twins, unless he will accept a very cheap one-year contract. He also kind of ripped the Twins' medical staff when asked about this news, which would put him in a non-exclusive club of people who have (perhaps justifiably) questioned the competence of this team's medical experts.
    Denard Span - Back!
     
    Span returned to the lineup on Thursday. He missed about 10 days with a day-to-day injury. I guess as long as they measure in days, all injuries are day-to-day.
    P.J. Walters - Rehabbing in AAA
     
    Walters pitched his 4th and 5th rehab starts this week. It seems he should join the rotation sometime in September. Who do you take out of this historic rotation though?
    The Standings
    [TABLE]


    Team

    Win-Loss

    Games Back

    Last 10



    Houston

    40-88

    ---

    1-9



    Chicago Cubs

    49-77

    10

    3-7



    Colorado

    51-75

    12

    6-4



    Twins

    52-75

    12.5

    2-8



    Cleveland

    55-72

    15.5

    1-9



    Kansas City

    56-70

    17

    5-5



    Toronto

    56-70

    17

    1-9

    [/TABLE]
     
    Well, the Twins are still in line for the 4th pick in next year's draft. Colorado made some progress toward passing the Twins too. Cleveland looks awful right now, so they seem like the best bet to knock the Twins out of the bottom 4. Hopefully next year we can look at the standings the right way.
    The Future
     
    Kyle Gibson is back in AAA! This is actually pretty exciting news. His rehab has gone well and he should be ready to start next year at AAA. If he can show the good command that he had before his injury, he should force his way into the rotation by the middle of next year. It is easy to forget how bright Gibson's future was just a little over a year ago. Baseball America had him listed as the 34th best prospect in all of baseball before 2011. He has had a strikeout to walk ratio over 3 in the minors and his strikeout rate might be high enough that he won't simply be another Radke-clone. He has a chance to be a good 3rd starter for a long time, which is something to get excited about.
    The Big Picture
     
    This is obviously the second consecutive lost season for the Twins. There are some positives though. Trevor Plouffe has been a pleasant surprise. I worry that he was almost too hot back in June/July and that expectations are higher than they should be for him. I do think that he could be a 20 HR, .800 OPS player with a good (if only a little wild) 3B arm. He might even have some upside from there too. He is cheap right now and will only get expensive down the line if he continues to develop. I think that would be a pretty good trade-off. However, he has been awful since returning from the DL. His thumb might still be bothering him, and eventually shutting him down in September might be a good idea.
    Fantasy Tip of the Week
     
    Get rid of Wins. Nothing is more frustrating than having a starter give you 8 dominant innings and then have Matt Capps blow the whole game for you. Wins are lucky. Try to find a category that captures the value of a starting pitcher without using wins. If you figure that out, please let me know.
     
    Have a good week!
  6. Brad Swanson
    The Twins are far from contending. It really is the sad reality. As much as we may think that adding two starting pitchers to the roster for 2013 will make the Twins contend, the reality is that 2 high quality starting pitchers added to this year's roster might have lead to a .500 finish. .500 teams are worthless in my mind. You either want to make the playoffs or rebuild, but you don't want to be in the middle. Middling teams usually do not compete for the playoffs and have difficulties drafting and developing high-end talent.
     
    The one caveat is that the Central is a weak division and a .500 team might be close to a playoff spot. We all know from history that a Central Division Championship is nice, but not a predictor of Twins' success in the playoffs. In my mind, a few years of rebuilding can really replenish the farm system and lead to a bright future. The tradeoff is an unpleasant present. However, reality is reality. Perhaps the Twins can have a Baltimore Orioles type success next year, but I doubt that would lead to the World Series. A long term plan is needed. I am going to look at the players on the current 40 man roster, to see who could help a contending Twins team (likely in 2014 at the earliest). There are a variety of factors to consider, but each player will be analyzed based more on their future value than their current value. While a playoff spot in 2014 is certainly possible, 2015 or 2016 seems a lot more reasonable.
     
    Let's start from the bottom:
    Drew Butera - Catcher
    No
    Matt Carson - Outfielder
    Carson is a 31-year-old outfielder with about 50 games of MLB experience. He is not a piece to the puzzle and he is not a piece to any team's puzzle. The fact that he made it back to the big leagues is a cool story, but that is about all it is.
    Alexi Casilla - Infielder
    Casilla has been a useful player over the past few years. Ok, useful might be a stretch, but a guy who can play both middle infield positions well is pretty useful. He really can't hit at all, but he is fun to watch. He has some charisma, but that doesn't really help a lot on the field. I have enjoyed watching Casilla play the infield these past few years, but I don't think he will be in Minnesota next year. A good team would maybe use him as a late inning defensive replacement/pinch runner, and nothing more.
    Oswaldo Arcia - Outfielder
    The future looks bright for Arcia. He is a great hitter, and his AA stats are pretty impressive. He isn't much of a fielder, and he might have to move to left field, as his arm is not right field quality. The way he is hitting in AA and the fact that he is already on the 40 man roster, could combine to get him to the Twins' active roster in September at the young age of 21. If Denard Span needs rest, he could easily get some playing time in right field with Ben Revere moving to center. He likely will not be a full-time regular until 2014, but he might be a bit of a Jason Kubel (at his peak) type player down the line, and that type of player can definitely contribute on a future playoff team.
    Joe Benson - Outfielder
    Benson did not leave a good taste in fans' mouths last September and his struggles continued throughout this year in the minors. He strikes out a ton. He likely always will. However, a strikeout is the same as a ground out, fly out, line out, pop out, and any other kind of out in the box score. If he can be productive around the strikeouts, he has a lot of potential value. He runs well, fields well, throws well and has power. Put it this way, he could be what Trevor Plouffe is right now, with the added defensive and speed values. Benson has a right field arm and potential 20 home run/20 steal ability. He is still pretty young and I think he can contribute. Personally, I hope the Twins can fit him in the lineup next year, regardless of his struggles in 2012. I would not give up on this player just yet.
    Eduardo Escobar - Infielder
    Escobar was acquired in the Francisco Liriano trade back in July. He is already 23 years old, and is likely a utility man at best. According to what I have read, he is a very good fielder. He is also versatile enough to play second, third and short. He could be a better version of Nick Punto, if he hits. As much as Punto was disliked in Minnesota, his type of player does have some value off the bench.
    Pedro Florimon - Infielder
    Florimon has a pretty similar skill set compared with Escobar. He is a skilled fielder, but not an accomplished minor league hitter. He could also be a utility player, but likely not one with as much value as Escobar. I don't think he can contribute to a playoff team.
    Brian Dozier - Infielder
    I am not a huge Dozier fan. He will be 26 for most of next year, and he didn't really impress while in Minnesota. He didn't hit enough to be valuable, especially when you consider that his defense needs work. As unexciting as Escobar might be, his glove makes his shortcomings with the bat a bit more tolerable. Dozier hasn't shown enough in the field or at the plate, and he is 2 years older. Some have compared him to Jamey Carroll, but he doesn't walk nearly enough for that to be an accurate comparison.
    Jamey Carroll - Infielder
    More than 10 percent of the Twins' current 40 man roster consists of utility players. Not all utility players are created the same way. Carroll is a very valuable utility player. He can play second, short and third in a pinch. He gets on base enough to make up for his lack of power. He is old. I would not be surprised if he was retired the next time the Twins are contending.
    Darin Mastroianni - Outfielder
    Mastroianni is exactly the type of player that when used properly, has good value, but might be just good enough to earn more playing time and become an issue. I know that might not make sense, but to me, Mastroianni is a good 4th outfielder. When he becomes a regular, he looks a lot less impressive. He clearly has the glove for any outfield position and he gets on base enough to be valuable. However, he also appears to be a "gamer" and that worries me. Gardenhire likes his gamers and a guy like Mastroianni may earn more playing time on that basis. If he works hard and plays well, he certainly deserves that opportunity. I just prefer to have players in positions that best emphasize their skill sets. So, in summary, 4th outfielder Darin Mastroianni good, starting outfielder Darin Mastroianni bad. Outfield is actually a position of strength here in Minnesota in the present. Looking to the future, I hope there is never a situation where a guy like Joe Benson or Aaron Hicks is blocked by Mastroianni. Then again, Matt Carson was getting starts over him the last week, so maybe Gardy doesn't like Mastroianni as much as I thought he would.
    Chris Parmelee - 1st Base/Outfield?
    I'm not sure Chris Parmelee should play the outfield on a contending team. I am also not sure he can be productive enough with the bat to play first base on a contending team. He is down in AAA earning the right for everyone to find out. If the power translates, like Trevor Plouffe's AAA power surge in 2011, then he could be valuable. He isn't likely to hit 30 bombs in the Majors, but 20 could be possible. If he can draw walks and mix in some doubles, he could contribute at first base. A player like that, under team control and cheap, can really contribute. Spending a million or so on a starting first baseman can free up a lot of money to spend in other places. Pitching comes to mind, but that is a story for next week.
    Ben Revere - Outfielder
    It is almost hard not to think of Juan Pierre when I think of Ben Revere. Both have tons of speed, good contact, no power whatsoever, great range in the outfield and no arm. This type of player is very dependent on stolen bases and batting average. Research shows that batting average can vary significantly from year to year. Without a .300 batting average, Revere is not a player that can help a good team. That is my worry. He makes contact so well and he is so fast, that he could defy variance and be productive for years. Realistically, he might be best served as a 4th outfielder. I will say, he is extremely fun to watch in the outfield and that provides some visual value for fans during down years.
    Trevor Plouffe - 3rd Base
    If Plouffe could just throw, the Twins would have an extremely valuable shortstop. At third, he still can contribute. The power surge in June/July was likely somewhat lucky. His home run to fly ball ratio was very high, but that doesn't take the home runs off the board. If he can provide an .800 or so OPS and can continue to make the throw from third base, he can be valuable in the same way as Chris Parmelee. He will be cheap and under team control for awhile. Corner infielders with average to good power have value and can help on a playoff team.
    Ryan Doumit - Catcher/Outfielder
    In many ways, Doumit is a perfect backup catcher for this team. The fact that he could catch 4-5 times per week and put up good numbers, gives him the versatility to move to corner outfield positions and not look out of place offensively. Catchers simply cannot play every day behind the plate, but having a good offensive player like Doumit to replace Joe Mauer a few days a week is extremely valuable. Doumit isn't even a good fielder, regardless of where he plays, but his bat is above average and his positional versatility makes him a good piece. He will be 33 in 2014, so the only way he contributes to a Twins playoff team is if they have success sooner than expected.
    Justin Morneau - 1st Base
    I don't see it. Morneau was a very important part of the Twins' success in the 2000s. He won an MVP award and may have won another had he not suffered a concussion in 2010. His season in 2012 has started to look good, but the looming head issues are a concern. In addition, he will be 32 years old next year. With Chris Parmelee seemingly ready for a shot and making more than 10 million dollars less in salary, I wouldn't be surprised if Morneau's healthy season earns him a ticket to another team. I hope he can contribute to another team's success, as he has been a player I have enjoyed watching over the years.
    Denard Span - Center Field
    I heard Span on the radio and the host asked him who the most underrated player on the Twins is. He said Jamey Carroll, but the correct answer would have been given had he said "me." Span is a player that it took me a while to warm up to. I focused too much on what he couldn't do (power, arm) and didn't see all the good things that he can do (hit, get on base, range in the outfield). His base running is not great, but he doesn't need to steal bases to have value. He gets on base at an above-average rate, he plays a good center field, and he has started to hit a lot of doubles this season. He is a legitimate leadoff hitter and his healthy (head-wise) season is very encouraging. All that being said, if the Twins can trade him for legitimate pitching prospects, I would do that. You can't just sign quality pitching prospects as free agents. You have to give something to get something. However, iIf Span can't fetch a good return, I wouldn't trade him right now. Down the line, if the outfield prospects (Arcia, Benson, Hicks) develop, you might trade him just because there are equally attractive options. Right now, he is still the best all-around outfielder in the organization.
    Josh Willingham - Left Field
    Josh Willingham is having a wonderful season. He is getting on base and hitting for a ton of power. He might have been the best free agent signing off the offseason in all of baseball. His contract is reasonable and he is signed at that reasonable rate for two more years. In addition, he replaced Michael Cuddyer, which earns him a special place in my heart. On the other hand, Josh Willingham is a terrible outfielder. He can only play left field, which is unique, but not cool. He has very little range and his arm isn't great. He is 33 years old, but if he stays healthy, there is no reason he can't put up similar offensive numbers for the next two years. I would prefer that he does that as a full-time DH though. With Joe Mauer on the roster, having a full-time DH is not an option. So, yes, he can contribute, but he might be too old and not versatile enough to contribute to a Twins playoff team. He is another candidate to trade for young pitching and after this season, he actually might bring something significant back in return.
    Joe Mauer - Catcher/DH
    Joe Mauer is an excellent player. It is very easy to look at all the things that he does not do and be critical. To do that would ignore all the things that he does extremely well. He gets on base as well as any player in baseball. Only 3 active players have gotten on base at a higher rate than Mauer in his career: Todd Helton, Albert Pujols and Lance Berkman (4 players if you count Manny Ramirez as active. He might not have home run power, but he does have good gap power. He may not be the elite catcher that he once was, but he can still play catcher at a respectable level. He has played more games this year than any other Twins player with the exception of Josh Willingham. Joe Mauer is the type of player that every team would want. Of course, he is almost certainly overpaid, but that was as much a business decision as a baseball decision. How could the Twins let a MN-born, homegrown player walk with a new ballpark opening. Plus, he was coming off one of the greatest seasons ever produced by a catcher human. The Twins had to overpay to keep him and it was the right decision. While his salary adds a degree of difficulty to the rebuilding process, his talent makes it a lot easier to build a good team. If the Twins contend in the next 6 years, he will be a positive contributor.
    In summary
    In my opinion, the following players will play a significant role on a future Twins playoff team:
    Joe Mauer, Trevor Plouffe, and Chris Parmelee
    The following players could play a significant role, if the Twins contend in 2014:
    Josh Willingham, Denard Span, Ryan Doumit
    The following players could play a bench role on a good Twins team:
    Ben Revere, Eduardo Escobar, Darin Mastroianni
    It is too early to tell, but these young players are exciting and could contribute:
    Joe Benson, Oswaldo Arcia
    The remaining players either will not be around, or will not contribute positively.
     
    Next week, I will tackle the pitchers.
    What do you think of this list?
     
  7. Brad Swanson
    Mike Trout is the toast of the baseball town. He was called up to the Majors on April 28 and has literally been the most valuable player in either league since that day. He has hit for power, stolen bases and made some outstanding catches in the outfield. Any team would be lucky to have a player like Trout, and he just turned 21, in case you needed extra convincing.
     
    Kyle Gibson has a bright future as well. Odds are, he will not suffer another injury as debilitating as he is recovering from. He was a top tier prospect for the Twins with great control. His AAA numbers last year looked bad, but if you looked closer, he did have a good strikeout rate, a great walk rate and a strikeout to walk ratio well above 3. While many would compare him to Brad Radke, he might have actually had more ability than Radke, who was a Twins mainstay for about a decade.
     
    Every single GM in baseball would take Trout over Gibson right now and going forward. Gibson still could be a number 3 starter on a good team, but Trout could end up as the best player in the AL for the next 10-15 years. Trout vs. Gibson is a 1st round knockout.
     
    That is not to say that every GM would have taken Trout over Gibson 3 years ago. Gibson was taken 22nd by the Twins and Trout was taken 25th by the Angels. In fact, 21 teams passed on Trout, with Washington and Arizona passing on him twice (imagine Trout with Harper and Strasburg!). Anaheim even passed on him once, although, they had consecutive picks, so there was no risk in losing him. That seems crazy now, but Trout came from a part of the country that is not known for baseball. Therefore, some wondered if he was just a big fish in a small pond. Turns out, Trout is a whale shark. Enough fish puns though.
     
    So, this is not a critique of the Twins' front office. They had taken Aaron Hicks, a toolsy, slick-fielding, cannon-armed, with good power potential outfielder, just one year earlier. While you should take the best player available in drafts, Gibson also fit the Twins' profile for a starting pitcher. He flew through the minor leagues, and likely would have been in Minnesota last September, had he not been injured. He will be only 25 years old next season, and likely will spend at least some time with the Twins in 2013.
     
    So, what if the Twins had drafted Mike Trout in 2009?
     
    First, I doubt Trout would be tearing up MLB pitching in 2012 in a Twins uniform. The Twins do not rush prospects, although, Trout was obviously not rushed. However, my gut says that Trout would be in AAA right now, at the highest. His minor league numbers aren't so insane that he would have forced the Twins' hand. He was good enough that he would have likely split years at different levels, as he did with the Angels, but he almost certainly would not have been called up in 2011 at age 19 with the Twins. The Trout Phenomenon would have almost certainly have started later, but I do not think he would be any less a player had the Twins drafted him; it just might have taken longer to find out. He likely would have debuted in September of this year, or possibly even mid- to late-2013.
     
    Second, Gibson almost certainly would still have all of his original ligaments. No, that's not true. Gibson would have been just as likely to get hurt with any other team. You cannot predict health with pitchers and Gibson could have just as easily blown his arm out pitching with another team. Although, I do think that he may have done so in the Majors. Gibson had pitched 3 years at Missouri, and was therefore 21 years old when drafted. In their 2010 prospect rankings, Baseball America listed his MLB ETA as 2011. By the way, those same rankings had Gibson rated 61st and Trout 85th as prospects in all of baseball. So, while Gibson has never reached the majors in real life, in this What If scenario, he may have.
     
    Finally, the Twins would have the number 1 prospect in baseball right now. As I said before, I think he would be in AAA at the highest, but I also think he would be coming up to the MLB any day. In fact, he may have been a very recent call-up, as Trout would make Denard Span an even better trade chip for the Twins. They might have been more willing to trade Span back in July for some pitching help, under this scenario. They would need even more pitching help, as they never drafted Kyle Gibson, and therefore do not have any sort of starting pitching prospect in the system.
     
    This type of transaction is not likely one that can change a franchise in the short-term. The 2012 Twins would likely still be a bad team with terrible starting pitching. Trout would be an exciting player for the fans, but ultimately would not make them a playoff team. This can be seen with the current version of the Angels, as they are falling dangerously close to missing out on the playoffs this year, even with Trout. The 2015 Twins might have been another story. A player like Mike Trout has the ability to be an MVP caliber player for many years. He has power, speed, and defense, at a premium position. While he cannot win a World Series on his own, he is a fantastic start for a rebuilding club.
     
    Kyle Gibson is the only actual Twin between the two players. Pre-surgery Gibson never threw the ball through a wall, and hopefully can reclaim the control and command that he had before his elbow issues. If he can, he still has the ability to be a number 3 starter in the MLB. If the Twins knew they would be getting a number 3 starter with the 22nd pick in any draft, they would take that every time. Gibson is no Trout, but he can still prove to be a good draft pick for the Twins.
    (Note: As I was writing this, Mike Trout hit a freaking missile out of the park off Felix Hernandez. I guess he felt I wasn't giving him enough credit.)
  8. Brad Swanson
    This is like the mother lode for frustrated Twins fans. I mean, take both of these guys out in one fell swoop! I hardly enjoyed these two players as a fan. Blackburn was a player that I harped on repeatedly, refusing to give him credit for pitching one important game back in the 2008 Game 163 (we lost that game too, no one seems to remember that). I felt he was living off that reputation for far too long, considering his failures over the past 3 years. I did not know what to think about Nishioka when he signed, but wow, it did not take long for me to figure it out. I was not impressed with any part of his game, and I am not surprised he has been removed from the 40 man roster so quickly after his signing.
     
    I also know that we aren't supposed to feel sorry for millionaires that get to play a child's game for a living. Each of these men will likely earn more money next year than I will make in my entire life, even if they don't play a single inning. I know that both of these men will likely get to continue to play baseball for at least a few more years, maybe just not in Major League Baseball. I also know that their lives have not ended and that both are young men with plenty of life to live.
     
    I try to think about how it would feel to work so hard toward something that you really want, reach the highest level of your field, and then have such public, horrifying failure. Failure to the point that no organization really wants you around anymore. It is true that most do not reach this level, but that likely will not put these two at ease. They have reached the crossroads of their careers. There aren't a lot of people that reach that point in their career at such young ages. The reality is that either man can likely stay with baseball for as long as they want to. There is really no rational reason to feel badly for them, but I still do feel somewhat badly for them.
     
    There are plenty of minor leaguers who never get this far. I certainly don't feel badly for them. There is clearly some psychological difference here. With Blackburn, I feel like I have seen his entire career and it seems to be ending really early. He was an exciting prospect once upon a time, but in my eyes, he never really reached any sort of exciting potential. At his peak, he was average at best. At his worst, he might have literally been the worst pitcher in all of Major League Baseball. How much longer would he even be willing to keep playing at that level?
     
    Nishioka had some success in Japan, but is unlikely to have any sort of career in MLB. In fact, his MLB career will likely not be remembered much at all, except by those fans that remember just how poorly he played all parts of the game. He left his home as a successful player to try to play in the best league in the World. To fail so mightily and have to go back to those that he left would be extremely humbling.
     
    Who knows, maybe one or both of them will find something in their pasts that made them players that the Twins wanted on their team. If they both end up on the Twins' roster in September for some reason, please pretend you never read this. Thanks!
  9. Brad Swanson
    The Mondayne Notes will be posted either late Sunday night or on Monday. They are best accompanied by
    of "Spinning in Daffodils" by Them Crooked Vultures.The Games
    Monday - Win over Detroit - 9-3
    Samuel Deduno walked fewer than he struck out. Ryan Doumit hit a late bomb to put it away.
    Tuesday - Loss to Detroit - 8-4
    The Twins scored 4 unearned runs in the 3rd inning, but Doug Fister pretty much shut them down the rest of the way. If anything will keep the Tigers from success in the regular season and postseason, it will definitely be their infield defense.
    Wednesday - Loss to Detroit - 5-1
    Cole DeVries was pretty inefficient and Max Scherzer basically dominated the Twins with 10 strikeouts.
    Thursday - Off Day
    Friday - Loss to Seattle - 5-3
    A late pair of solo home runs by Joe Mauer and Josh Willingham were not enough as Nick Blackburn gave up 3 runs in the first 2 innings and his season ERA jumped up to 7.39.
    Saturday - Loss to Seattle - 3-2
    In a wonderful demonstration of how overrated wins and losses are for pitchers, Casey Fein gets the loss by facing one batter and getting him out. He inherited a based loaded, no outs situation. He got a sacrifice fly to shallow center, but deep enough to score the run. He also got the loss for that. On the other side, Tom Wilhelmsen faced one batter and got the win. He also got his batter out.
    Sunday - Loss to Seattle - 5-1
    The game was close until Jeff Gray came in and showed us all how to win. Deduno had a "quality start" and also walked 6 more batters. His walk rate is almost historically high and I am planning to investigate just how high sometime in the future. Ben Revere did return to the lineup after missing the previous two games.
    Week in Review
    Not a great week. The Monday night game was fun, but the Twins' offense was not great the rest of the week. They scored 9 runs on Monday and then 10 runs the rest of the week. Unfortunately, they cannot win games without getting good or better offense. Sam Deduno and Scott Diamond had good results in their 3 combined starts, but the rest of the starting pitching dug holes for the team in the early innings. Deduno walked 11 guys in his 2 starts and had 4 double plays turned behind him. There are about 5 reasons (high strand rate, low strikeout rate, high walk rate, low BABIP, lack of any sort of track record) I can think of that point toward some major regression from Deduno, but it is hard to argue with the results right now. I am not a Nick Blackburn fan at all, but I am honestly starting to feel a bit sorry for him and I hope he has a couple lucky starts in a row because he isn't going to get good results based on his talent anymore. Pedro Florimon made his Twins debut and made some nice plays on deep pop-ups behind short.
    The Transactions
    8/13 - Trevor Plouffe activated, Nishioka send to AAA
    The Plouffe is no longer on fire. I still like him though, and think he can be a cheap third baseman for the next couple years. Nishioka going back to AAA is probably the best thing for him. Each MLB game he plays is just more and more embarrassing for him. I honestly hope the Twins buy him out and let him go back to Japan. That is likely the best situation for all sides.
    8/15 - Brian Dozier to AAA, Pedro Florimon called up
    This one surprised me. Florimon is not a prospect, so there is nothing to get too excited about with him. I am not super high on Dozier, but I am hopeful he can get some confidence back in AAA. I refuse to believe that there isn't a psychological element of baseball, as that would make it completely unique to all other human activities. He seems like the type that could have some good gap power and he isn't a terrible fielder. Long term, a move to 2B might be best for him though. He really doesn't have much AAA experience, so this time could be helpful. He'll be back in September regardless.
    8/16 - Luis Perdomo to AAA, Jeff Manship to AAA
    Meh and Meh. Perdomo had a 1.50 ERA in 6 innings, but only 3 strikeouts to 7 walks. Sam Deduno would scoff at that ratio. Manship is just a guy. You can use him as a mop up guy when down by 10 runs. Otherwise, he actually hurts the team.
    8/17 - Activated Anthony Swarzak, Called up Matt Carson, Outrighted Rene Tosoni
    Carson isn't a prospect, but can be on the bench if needed without hurting his development. While many would have liked Parmelee to be called up, it would be wasteful, unless he was going to play every day. His call-up in June/July pretty much proved that will not happen.
     
    Tosoni was awful in AA and AAA and with the surprising glut of outfield prospects that the Twins have now (Arcia, Hicks, Rosario and even Benson), they really just don't need a 26 year old corner-only outfielder who really didn't show that he could hit, run, get on base, or even field last year. He seemed like a nice guy though.
     
    Swarzak is a semi-useful pitcher as a long man out of the bullpen and spot starter. If nothing else, having a guy like Swarzak should allow the Twins to eventually cut the number of pitchers on the 25 man roster down to a reasonable number (long term of course, this year doesn't really matter much).
    The Injuries
    Scott Baker - out for season
    It seems that he is throwing more often. I am an advocate for signing him next year. He would likely be the ace of the staff, unfortunately. I mean that in the nicest way possible, as I do like Scott Baker. But, a number 3 starter coming off of TJ surgery is not a very exciting ace.
    Matt Capps - 15 day DL
    It sounds like he might be out until September. It is possible that he has pitched his last game for the Twins. Which is sad because we never got to give him the standing ovation he deserved as he walked off of Target Field for the last time. We might just have to settle for serenading him with cheers when he comes back next year with another team.
    Carl Pavano - 60 day DL
    Another guy who might not pitch for the Twins again, although he is likely to return late August. I wonder if he will even get a Jason Marquis type deal for next year.
    Ben Revere - day to day
    Revere sprained his ankle on first base during Wednesday's game. He stayed in the game, but the play looked pretty nasty. It must have been, as he missed the next couple games. He was back today and should be fine going forward.
    Denard Span - day to day
    Span last played on August 12, meaning he has missed over a week now. He can be put on the DL retroactively, but that doesn't really change the fact that this type of injury situation is all too common for the Twins. While it really doesn't mean a whole lot in a lost season, it is the type of situation you want to have fixed by the time the team is successful again. Having a two man bench of Drew Butera and Tsuyoshi Nishioka during an August pennant race is means for being disqualified from the playoffs out of principle.
    P.J. Walters - 15 day DL
    Currently pitching rehab starts in AAA. I guess it would be good to see what he has in September, just to see if he can be a stopgap starter in 2013.
    The Standings
    [TABLE]


    Team
    Win Loss
    Games Back
    Last 10


    Houston
    39-83
    --
    3-7


    Colorado
    46-73
    8.5
    6-4


    Chicago Cubs
    47-73
    9
    3-7


    Twins
    50-70
    12
    1-9


    San Diego
    53-70
    13.5
    4-6


    Cleveland
    54-67
    15.5
    3-7


    Milwaukee
    54-66
    16
    3-7
    [/TABLE]
     
    Some are not going to like how I display the standings, but realistically, the best way to look at this season is from the bottom up. The worse the Twins' record at the end of the year, the better it is for the future. There isn't a bonus for finishing in 3rd place or getting to .500. But, finishing in the bottom five means a better draft pick, and more importantly, more draft money. Under the new system, you can get double punished for winning games you shouldn't or don't need to win. I am working on a column about losing with dignity that I will have up in a couple weeks. The team doesn't have to tank to lose, but there are ways improve your draft standing while still keeping the team interesting. It might not matter much, as the Twins are the worst of these listed teams over the past 10 games.
    The Future
     
    Jose Berrios struck out 11 batters in 5 innings on Friday night. Berrios is only 18 years old and was quickly promoted to high Rookie ball in Elizabethton. Berrios is fairly short for a pitcher (listed at 6' 1"), but does have good life on his fastball and is not the Twins' typical soft-tossing strike-thrower. According to ESPN's scouting page, Berrios might be a bullpen arm long-term or his three pitch arsenal of fastball, curve and change could help him stay in the rotation. Regardless, getting this guy with the first pick in the 1st supplemental round was a demonstration that the Twins are serious about drafting and developing some power arms with upside.
    The Big Picture
     
    This past year, the Twins drafted quite a few relievers that throw hard, in the hopes that they can turn a few into starters. Berrios is obviously one of them. To me, this is a great strategy, as these pitchers are talented enough to profile as good bullpen arms regardless of whether they can develop new pitches in the minors. Young relievers can be extremely valuable, as they save the club from spending too much on veteran relievers and give flexibility to the club to allocate their resources to other parts of the team. A young, talented, team-controlled and hard-throwing bullpen sounds to me like a winning formula.
    Fantasy Tip of the Week
     
    Use total bases in place of home runs. Home runs are fun, but so are triples and doubles. Plus, I find the higher the numbers, the more fun the category is. Total bases still give a bonus for home runs, but adds other extra base hits to the party.
     
    Have a great week everyone!
  10. Brad Swanson
    Baseball is certainly evolving. There are many experts. Their expertise comes from many different backgrounds. Some come from the scouting background, some come from a statistical background, some are journalists, and some are former baseball players. All of these experts have a lot to offer. Initially, I relied on the journalists and broadcasters to learn about baseball. As I got older, I read Moneyball, gave myself a Billy Beane haircut and started getting really into statistics. A couple years ago, I bought a Baseball Prospectus subscription and started learning more about the scouting side of things from some really fantastic writers like Jason Parks and Kevin Goldstein. I often find myself watching MLB Network and learning the intricacies of baseball from former players. Some former players are better than others, but it is always great to hear from those that played at the highest level.
     
    As a result, I have learned that using statistics to evaluate minor leaguers might not be the best way to predict their futures. I have learned that a good strikeout to walk ratio for a pitcher is 3.0 or higher. I have learned that power isn't necessary equal to home runs. I am also aware of the human side of baseball and that even though players make far more money than I ever will, they are still in possession of human brains and human faults.
     
    In summation, I have tried to become a very rational baseball fan. When Brian Dozier debuts for the Twins, I know that he will not be a superstar. When Francisco Liriano is on the trading block, I know the Twins cannot get Jurickson Profar from the Rangers just because the Rangers need a starting pitcher for their playoff run. I know that the Twins cannot fire Ron Gardenhire, in spite of his team's current issues, because he is well liked in the clubhouse and well respected in baseball.
     
    However, I am a fan. I have knee-jerk reactions. I have desires to see my favorite team reach massive levels of success. When Brian Dozier debuts for the Twins, I want him to come up and start bombing doubles into the gaps. When Francisco Liriano is on the trading block, I want the Twins to move him for two young pitching prospects that can throw 96-98 on the radar gun. I would like to see my favorite team have more success than simply winning division titles and I am bothered by the playoff record of Ron Gardenhire.
     
    This blog will be an attempt to reconcile the rational and irrational side of my fandom. I am not an expert on any of the subjects that I have mentioned above. I watch a lot of baseball, I read as much as I can, and I have a lot of ideas. Some of my ideas are going to seem very strange. Occasionally, I might deviate from analysis to storytelling. As much as I like baseball, I don't take it very seriously, so don't get upset if I get a little strange at times. Oh yeah, I'll probably be wrong a lot. I guess I should not admit that, but I hope it makes me look really humble. I am super humble. Enjoy!
  11. Brad Swanson
    Weekend Recap
     
    Who won the most recent game? Those of us with a healthy recency bias are pretty high on the Twins right now. Everyone else? Not so much.
     
    Logan Darnell...sort of
     
    Congratulations to Darnell for making his first MLB start on Saturday. He got lit up, but it's still a great moment for him. Darnell absolutely deserved this opportunity. He's slowly climbed through the Twins' system since being drafted in the 6th round in 2010. In 2014, he's made 17 AAA starts and has a 3.43 ERA. When the Twins needed a starter on Saturday, Darnell was a logical choice.
     
    In fact, Darnell, Yohan Pino (who was great on Sunday) and Kris Johnson have all deserved the starts they have received. Each has pitched well at AAA and each has paid their Minor League dues. That said, can we please have Trevor May and Alex Meyer now?
     
    Darnell, Pino and Johnson are deserving, but Meyer and May are more talented and much more likely to be in the rotation for a long time. Pino is 30, Johnson joins him at 30 in October and Darnell actually has a higher AAA ERA than either Meyer or May.
     
    I understand being patient with prospects, but at this point in the season, Meyer and May need to be on the active roster, learning how to get MLB hitters out. If the Twins have any shot of contending in 2015, one or both of these talented pitchers need to contribute.
     
    Brian Dozier and Oswaldo Arcia
     
    Here's an old Bill Simmons trope for you:
    Player A - .230/.325/.418
    Player B - .221/.303/.385

    Player A is Dozier, Player B is Arcia. Player A was elected President of Twins Territory, Player B is having an abysmal sophomore season. At least, that's how I've read and heard things. Since May 21, when Dozier's line peaked at .263/.377/.480, he is batting .211/.290/.383.
     
    This isn't even meant to be a criticism of Dozier, more of a call to "back off" of Arcia. I'm glad to see Arcia in the lineup most days, something I called for last Monday. He rewarded the Twins with a pretty decent week. The major difference between Dozier and Arcia is the Twins' willingness to let Dozier work through his slumps. Arcia needs to be afforded the same opportunity, especially if the Twins want him to be a cornerstone player in the near future.
     
    Why I hated 2011-2013
     
    You may have already picked up on a trend from these past two sections, but the thing that bothered me most during the crummy 2011-13 seasons was the Twins' unwillingness to commit to young players with an eye toward the future. To me, a disappointing season is a great time to see what you have in a young player. I'll give the Twins a pass in 2011, because they didn't think they would be bad. 2012-13? No pass.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia was shuffled from AAA to Minnesota routinely in 2013. Liam Hendriks wasn't given a chance to work through struggles in 2012 or 2013. Brian Dozier wasn't even on the Opening Day roster in 2012, which I had actually forgotten about.
     
    When Josmil Pinto was called up in September of 2013, it didn't seem like he was going to get much playing time. Then, he hit like freaking Ted Williams and the Twins had no choice but to give him more playing time. The better plan would have had Pinto as the primary catcher from the start of September.
     
    Well, at least they tried with Aaron Hicks. Of course, they also gave up in the middle of the 2013 season. Granted, he was awful, he had hit better as the season had went on. As such, the Twins came into 2014 with no clue how Hicks would perform. He performed as the baseball equivalent of Courtney Love.
     
    Maybe these guys hadn't fully earned their chances. They almost certainly should have played better when they actually arrived. But what was the point in either waiting on them or not giving them opportunity to adjust? It wasn't an effort to win games because if it was, it was a massive failure.
     
    After the trade deadline later this week, the Twins should be prepared to commit to their young players. Meyer, May, Arcia, Pinto, Danny Santana, Michael Tonkin, maybe even Kennys Vargas. There is no way the Twins plan to be bad in 2015, so they need to figure out if any of these guys are going to be reliable next year and after next year.
     
    Or, they can just call up a bunch of AAA duds and watch the fans enjoy the Vikings pre-season. It's really up to them.
     
    Former Twin Update - Trade Deadline
     
    Next week, I'll have a current Twin to profile in this section. Kendrys Morales was traded last week and he won't be the only 2014 Twin on a different team by the end of this week. The Twins appear to be fully committed to selling, something I applaud them for. Anyone who isn't a part of the future should be jettisoned. I hope that I'm picking between a few different guys for this section next week.
     
    For this week's update, Kendrys Morales continued to be Kendrys Molasses with the Mariners.
     
    Random Gif - Totally Worth It
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qS177k8ViQM/U9Wu5UbwKpI/AAAAAAAABko/HHdj2M5BCEw/s1600/guyfalldown.gif
     
    People love baseballs that are discarded into the stands. This clip is proof. A few things. One, the guy was okay. Two, the guy to his left (from his perspective while laying in traction on the ground) seemed legitimately concerned. Three, hey guy who got the ball, it's actually pretty bad form to hold your trophy over the carcass of the guy who fell neck-first into metal seats to make sure the ball got to you. Four, Willingham smoked one of the next pitches into the bullpen. Ryan Presley resisted the urge to try to back flip into the bleachers to catch the ball.
     
    Get Excited about a Prospect - Lewis Thorpe
     
    For those who aren't in the know, Lewis Thrope is an 18-year-old Australian lefty who is making his full-season debut with the Cedar Rapids Kernels. While you may not get excited about a guy with a 4.91 ERA in 9 starts, I am ecstatic. Thorpe had a rough outing on Thursday, but his overall numbers are pretty impressive. He was a little wild in his first two starts, but since then, he's thrown 29.1 innings over seven starts, has a 4.30 ERA with 32 strikeouts while allowing just 12 walks (4 on Thursday).
     
    I cannot remind you hard enough (can one remind hard?) that Thorpe is a full four years younger than the average player in the Midwest League. He may not be dominating like he did in the GCL in 2013, but he's more than holding his own against much more advanced players. And, he's dominating at times too. On July 2, he went just 4.2 innings, but he struck out 8 and walked just one. This guy could be special. Let's get excited!
     
    Plugging My Way
     
    I really love plugging my own writing. It's kind of my thing. Last week, I wrote about Trevor May and the value of a good, cheap, durable 4th starter. I did some crude research and found that shockingly, they are very valuable. If you missed it and want to criticize my research skills, just click here. n = the sample size, I'm pretty sure of that. Everything else I cobbled together from Moneyball and cereal boxes.
     
    Parting Haiku
     
    Last weekend was lame
    Now they go out on the road
    Time for BBQ
  13. Brad Swanson

    July Mailbag

    By Brad Swanson,

    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    A mailbag on a Thursday? WHAAAAAAA? I know, I know, mailbags are for Fridays, but tomorrow is Independence Day and that day deserves to be free from fake mailbags. In this installment, I have TWO actual questions! One is from a family member, but it still counts. Enough dilly-dallying, let's answer some questions.
     
    Escobar has been one of the most consistent bats in the lineup and boasts the 3rd highest OPS on the team. If Oswaldo Arcia can't find a way to produce by the time Plouffe returns from the DL, should Gardy consider playing Eddie in RF to keep his bat in the lineup?
     
    -Duncan
     
    An actual question! Send me something and I'll answer it.
     
    Thank you for your question, Duncan and thank you for being a big supporter of this blog! This question was sent about two weeks ago, and Escobar has cooled significantly since then. He is batting just .143/.163/.190 over the last 14 days. Even before that, I would have probably tried to keep Arcia in the lineup, just because I like his power potential and hairstyle. But so much has happened since I received this question!
     
    Plouffe and Eduardo Nunez are back. Danny Santana is hurt. Jorge Polanco was here and gone. Chris Parmelee is suddenly hitting. With Parmelee hitting, he fits nicely in right if Arcia doesn't start to produce. If Parmelee cools, Santana returns and Arcia isn't producing, I could see trying Escobar in right, provided he's hitting again.
     
    I like when managers try to move people around to see how it works. It never hurts to try to make your players and roster more versatile. Worst case, you put an infielder in the outfield and he can't find the warning track and the team loses. But, really, how often does that happen?
     
    The Twins have had a plethora of shortstops on the roster this year. Please rank the many shortstops in the order of your preference. Thank you, I really enjoy your 3:1 puns-to-analysis ratio.
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    3:1 seems low, but thanks for the compliment! It's actually crazy to think that the Twins have had 6 different shortstop this year. That position has been a problem for the Twins for almost two decades and now they have some pretty impressive organizational depth. Here are my rankings for this year:
     

    Eduardo Escobar - The Eddie 400 has been a rousing success, even if Escobar has cooled off in recent weeks.
    Danny Santana - Would probably be number one if I wasn't so connected to the powerful Eddie 400 movement. Very exciting player to watch.
    Jorge Polanco - Would probably be number one if he wasn't still two years from regular MLB duty. Very exciting player to watch.
    Eduardo Nunez - Would probably be number one if he was better than the first three guys on the list. He seems like a nice guy.
    Pedro Florimon - What a disaster. A loyal reader suggested we create the "Florimon Abyss" for players who the "Mendoza Line" doesn't do justice. I love it. I'm in.
    Jason Bartlett - Yeah, remember this? All your anger about scholarships and country clubs is just rushing back!

    Derek Jeter is in town this week and I really want to get him something nice to celebrate his retirement. Can you suggest a gift or 10 for me? Thanks!
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Wow, you are in luck! I literally wrote on this very subject yesterday! What a wonderful coincidence! Here's the link to that piece, complete with images of Jeter enjoying his new stuff. For the record, I would give him the 25 hand-drawn pictures. It would be an amazing spectacle.
     
    Hey Brad you think you're so smart about what the Twins need & how to build their team. What about all those rotten softball teams you played for & all along you knew someone close to you that was a career .700 hitter & classic #3 guy for his teams for 20 plus years. Yeah maybe he pulled his hammies often, usually both at the same time, but I still say I'm good for 5 runs a game.
     
    Dad S., St Paul, MN
     
    Another real question, from my actual Dad! I'm going to address this in a few parts:
     
    1. One of those "rotten" teams won the Shoreview Slow-Pitch Co-Red D Softball League in 2010. I have the shirt to prove it; I got bleach on it. We won the championship game 2-0. A 2-0 shutout in slow-pitch! What a team!
     
    2. I regret my decision to keep you off the team. What we really needed was veteran presence and I was too brash to know it at the time. There's a reason we moved to that Fall League and completely self-destructed. There's a reason we haven't played in that Shoreview League since winning the title. We didn't even defend! I couldn't get a team back together.
     
    That was on me. I was riding high after our title. I started referring to myself as "Rickey," I recorded that bluegrass album with one of the guys in Steely Dan, and I bought so many gold chains. My neck still hurts. I should have focused on our dynasty. What a monster.
     
    I have a follow-up to your Dad's question. Since you're such a super baseball genius who can't even plant a tree, what is the first thing you would you do if some moron decided to actually put you in charge of their baseball team? By the way, there's still a bunch of your lame stuff in our basement.
     
    Mom S., St. Paul MN
     
    Ok, that question might not be real. It is an excellent question, however. My very first move would be somewhat minor, but very impactful. I'd take a look around the proverbial room, see what I see, take it all in. Then I would get to work on organizing and designing my office.
     
    I always envisioned an entire wall of bookshelves, filled with all kinds of different books. I'd have a bunch of Vonnegut novels that I'd never finish, some baseball books that make me look smart, some books from other sports to give the appearance that I'm looking for new ideas and a whole mess of childrens' books to show that I have a playful/confusing side. You know what, let's just line three walls with bookshelves. I do need one wall for something else.
     
    Once the books are in place, a good desk is really important. L-shaped desks are popular because they add space, so I'd push two L-shaped desks into a square for maximum space. Sure, I'd have to crawl under by desk square every day, but that would be a fun thing for reporters to witness and hopefully comment on. Again, the playful/confusing side.
     
    Finally, I'd need something to write with and write on. That fourth wall would just be a giant chalkboard, a call-back to my previous position as a teacher where I never once used any chalk. I could get a bunch of that colored sidewalk chalk to write with. That way, every time I shake hands with someone, I would literally leave my mark in pink and purple chalk dust.
     
    Once my office is set, I'd probably DFA Mike Pelfrey just for kicks.
     
    The Twins are currently significantly below .500, but they're also within "striking distance" of the second (and first) Wild Card. With this being their reality, how should the team determine when they are buyers or sellers?
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    This requires a nuanced perspective, something I am not known for. The additional Wild Card basically keeps all non-Cubs teams in the race for much longer than they probably should be. Hypothetical scenario: The Twins tread water for the next week and enter the All-Star Break seven games under .500 and eight games back in the Wild Card standings. Technically, they're still in it, but does that mean they should start buying?
     
    I don't think they should. I mean, a couple of minor moves would be fine, but they shouldn't trade anyone of any prospect significance. The move they made for Eduardo Nunez earlier in the season would be a good barometer. Trading a low-level prospect for someone of value is always a good move. However, trading a top ten, or even top twenty prospect to upgrade the bullpen or outfield would be unwise.
     
    When it comes to selling, they don't have to go full "fire sale" mode. If the right deal comes along, they should take it. Most importantly, they shouldn't turn down a trade for one of their players because they're "still in it." Seven games under .500 is not really in it, even if they are only eight games back.
     
    I don't think this team is capable of playing 10-15 games over .500 in the second half, which is likely what they would need to do to actually win a Wild Card spot. Simply put, they aren't in a position to sacrifice the future for the present, even if it hurts for a few more months.
     
    Next year, they might be sitting at .500 in mid-July, just five games out. At that point, I'd be interested in doing some serious buying.
     
    Follow-up to that previous question. If the Twins do become sellers, who do you hope they trade? Thanks, I'm psychic.
     
    Mr. Magic, St. Paul, MN
     
    Wow, two follow-ups within something printed! History!
     
    My feeling is that no one should be untouchable. It really depends on who is being offered. For instance, I don't want the Twins to trade Phil Hughes. However, if the Nationals call and say "we're goin' fer it." and offer Lucas Giolito, the Twins have to take that offer. So while the Twins should keep players like Hughes, Glen Perkins and Brian Dozier to build around, you can't turn down the so-called "Godfather" offer.
     
    Of the more reasonable trade chips, I would be willing to part with everyone for the right price. Kurt Suzuki? Thanks for the surprising season! Josh Willingham? I enjoyed your home runs and outfield runs. Kendrys Morales? Maybe we can be pen pals. Kevin Correia? I hope the nightclub scene is great wherever you land.
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-IHxe91CxyP8/U7MDQdMo_3I/AAAAAAAABjQ/9eNFSBvADcI/s1600/CorreiaDanceLights.gif
     
    That's all I have time for today, thank you so much for all the wonderful and intelligent questions! I'll be back next month, ON A FRIDAY, to answer more questions. Have a nice long weekend, everyone!
  15. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Weekend Recap
     
    The series started good but ended up doing poorly. Kyle Gibson was excellent on Friday, but Sam Deduno and Ricky Nolasco got boomed like dynamite. Oh well, losing 2 of 3 in Detroit would have to fall into the "expected" category. Who did stuff that was notable? Let's find out!
     
    Ricky Nolasco
     
    On May 28, I asked if we should be worried about Ricky Nolasco. Since that day, Nolasco has made four starts. He's thrown 24 innings, given up 12 earned runs, 29 hits and 8 walks. He also has 21 strikeouts in that span, but his ERA is still 5.66 right now. I'll go ahead and answer my original question: yes, we should be worried about Ricky Nolasco.
     
    My biggest concern is that the Twins will be very slow to yank him from the rotation if he continues to struggle. Nolasco has been durable and inconsistent for basically his entire career. The Twins can rely on him to make his starts, but if better options are present, should they want that reliability? Nolasco is under contract for three more seasons after 2014 and I imagine he'll get many opportunities to improve his performance. I think this is justifiable, but at some point, the Twins have to examine the sunk cost and determine if there are pitchers in the organization who give the team a better chance to win.
     
    I'm not sure we're at the point of replacing Nolasco. That said, if Kyle Gibson was having Ricky Nolasco's season, is there any doubt that Gibson would be in Rochester? it's not a perfect hypothetical, but it's interesting to consider.
     
    Trevor Plouffe/Deibinson Romero
     
    Trevor Plouffe is on the disabled list with what MLB At-Bat referred to as a "side injury." An injury to an entire side sounds extremely painful, although I have no idea how one injures an entire side without slipping on ice, flying into the air and landing completely on your side. You know what, I can't really describe it in words, here's a picture:
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Ucy2HvJxtMM/U54KrFgZ-PI/AAAAAAAABfU/D-bMu2AO1Sk/s1600/sidecomic.png
     
    That looks bad. It sounds like he could miss significant time. It's a shame because Plouffe has hit pretty well this year (100 OPS+, exactly league-average) and he was placed on the DL on his 28th birthday. The Twins recalled Pedro Florimon to take his place and he'll slot in on the bench where the fact that he won't get any hits is expected because you're not allowed to get hits when you are on the bench.
     
    The Twins do have a third baseman at Rochester who could have taken Plouffe's spot quite nicely. Deibinson Romero has been in the organization since 2006. He's slowly climbed through the Minors and he's batting .310/.406/.452 in 62 games with Rochester this year (through Satuday). Romero isn't on the 40-man roster, so that might be the justification, but it seems that if Romero isn't getting his chance in this tailor-made situation, he may never get a chance with the Twins. Too bad, I'd be interested to see if he could translate some of his MiLB OBP skills to the Majors.
     
    Josh Willingham
     
    I was looking forward to Willingham's return from injury, mostly because I wanted to see how much he had left in the tank. I hoped he would hit for some power and become a trade chip at the deadline. Now, I might lean toward bringing him back for a season or two. Willingham displays "old player skills" in that he draws walks and hits for power. These are skills that older players can maintain if they maintain health.
     
    Obviously, Willingham is a health risk, but if he were to sign at a decent number and agree to move to DH, he could be a useful piece as the Twins transition in more young players. We know his power plays at Target Field and he likes playing in Minnesota. It seems like a good fit. That said, if someone offers a good prospect at the deadline, I'd take it and hope the love we let go finds his way back home. It would be so poetic.
     
    Former Twin Update - Vance Worley
     
    Vance Worley returned to the Majors on Sunday and because it is apparently super fun to troll Twins fans, he decided to have an awesome debut. Worley went seven innings, allowed zero runs on five hits with five strikeouts and no walks. Frick. It's just one start to I'm going to resist the impulse to throw my horn-rimmed glasses through the window, but a Worley success story would be about as frustrating as any former Twin finding success elsewhere.
     
    Worley legitimately gave the Twins no reason to put him in the MLB rotation after Spring Training. They got him through waivers near the end of Spring Training and could have used him in AAA. Instead, they sold him to Pittsburgh. Yes, the team that everyone rips for being cheap actually sold a player for money because they also apparently like to troll Twins fans.
     
    The reason they sold him (beyond cash being fun and the perfect way to buy stuff)? The Rochester rotation would have been too crowded. Scott Diamond has a 6.94 ERA with Rochester. The rotation was just too crowded! I don't think Worley turns into anything truly special, but he's just 26 and he would have been an interesting choice to replace one of the ineffective Twins' starters. Worley is one month older than Kyle Gibson. One month.
     
    Fun Stat - Nolasco's "Adjustments"
     
    I can't remember where I found this stat, but I'm going to share it anyway:
     

    MLB Leaders for most times adjusting pants:
    Ricky Nolasco - 25,000
    Everyone else - much less



    Interesting. I noticed that he adjusts his pants a lot, but I had no idea how elite he truly was.
     
    Random Animation
     
    Is it time to replace Sam Deduno with Trevor May? Perhaps this creepy animation will help me express my feelings on the subject:
     
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/--jqVxfdmu1k/U54Lg8msDdI/AAAAAAAABfc/2iL-PsX3cdY/s1600/dedunotomay.gif
     
    2 things - I promise not to do that again and Sam Deduno's head is bigger than Trevor May's. That part isn't my fault.
     
    KWL Chart - Kendrys Morales
     
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-KIHPYZ0-0sU/U54Ll1DjboI/AAAAAAAABfk/6kVEchYIS34/s1600/KWL+Morales.png
     
    Pro-tip: Click it and it gets bigger.
    Baseball Card of the Week
     
    In honor of the Twins facing Joe Nathan this past weekend, here is an early Nathan baseball card:
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-vFx9UzmuJw8/U54LunEVmCI/AAAAAAAABfs/1vTMs4ltg4Y/s1600/nathan+rookie.jpg
     
    This was from the era when Fleer was trying to capture what baseball would be like if every player was constantly zoned out and looking off into space.
     
    Plugging My Way
     
    Last week, I wrote about Joe Mauer's historic slump. I looked at the number of players who performed as well or better than Mauer through age 30 and how they performed from 31 and on. I think the "research" is somewhat interesting, so here's the link for anyone who likes things that are "interesting." In addition, check back on Friday as I will examine how the present would be different if the Twins had drafted Mark Prior instead of Joe Mauer back in 2001. I'm taking a slightly different perspective, so be sure to check it out!
     
    Parting Thought
     
    The Twins head to Boston this week, which means non-stop reminders that David Ortiz hated playing in Minnesota. I'll be honest, it's gotten stale. Maybe he should start talking about how much he hates Seattle. They gave up on him first! They traded him for Dave Hollins! Anyway, I hope Ortiz hits fewer than four home runs in this series, because watching him round the bases for 45 minutes is not how I want to spend my weeknights. Have a great week, everyone!
  19. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    OHHHHH man, the Madness has returned. Normally, a return of my madness would be concerning, but in this case, it's a good thing. Every Monday I'll recap the Twins' weekend series and throw in some silly stuff at the end for the kids. Come for the analysis, stay for some muted chuckles. Let's go!
     
    Weekend Recap
     
    Hey cool, the Twins looked pretty good this weekend. After dropping two of three to a ratty White Sox team, they won two of three against a decent Cleveland team. How did it happen? Let's discuss.
     
    Starting Pitching
     
    Twins starters managed just 14.1 innings against the Indians over the weekend. Mike Pelfrey pitched well through five innings but got rocked by two home runs in the sixth. Kyle Gibson pitched well, earning the win, but he only made it through 5 innings. He walked four batters and needed 97 pitches to get through those five innings. Ricky Nolasco was the worst of the three, getting staked to a 6-2 lead heading into the fourth. He gave up three in the bottom of the fourth and didn't return for the fifth. He needed 91 pitches to get through his four bad innings and he walked four batters as well. Twins starters walked 11 batters in those 14.1 innings against Cleveland, while striking out just 7. Not good.
     
    I fully expect the starting pitching to improve, but it's borderline shocking that the Twins are 3-3 when they've only received one good start (Kevin Correia in game 2 of the season) and they lost that game.
     
    Bullpen
     
    The short starts from the Twins' rotation lead to a lot of work from the Twins' bullpen. As a whole, they didn't perform well. Brian Duensing was great on Saturday, Jared Burton allowed runners but no runs and Glen Perkins shut down Cleveland 1-2-3 in Sunday's game. However, Casey Fien got rocked on Friday and Caleb Thielbar wasn't much better. Perkins had a sloppy inning on Saturday in a non-save situation. Anthony Swarzak gave up 5 hits in 1.1 innings on Sunday. His ERA sits at 20.25 after 2.2 innings this season. He did get the win on Sunday, so he must have done something right.
     
    I also expect the bullpen to be better. It makes you wonder if this team could actually be even better than they have looked so far. The pitching wasn't supposed to be their weakness.
     
    Of course, I have little to say about the offense because they played well. The Twins scored 19 runs in the Cleveland series after scoring 19 the White Sox series. In fact, the Twins lead the AL in runs scored. Of course, they also lead the AL in runs allowed. Their 0 run differential confirms their .500 record, right? Pythag!
     
    The Gardy 1000
     
    Congratulations to Ron Gardenhire on his 1000th (and 1001st) career victory! Whether you think Gardenhire should be managing the Twins in 2014 or not, it's hard to not be happy for the Twins' long-time manager. He led our favorite team to six playoff appearances and who knows, maybe he's got a few more planned for the future. 1000 wins is no small feat, so way to go, Gardy! Here's to 1000 more.
     
    Madness
     
    Random Top 5 List - AL RBI Leaders
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-PxCKL4NHnA4/U0ILgB--u5I/AAAAAAAABWM/c83E3KCHqpM/s1600/colabelloleader.PNG
     
    That looks pretty great, doesn't it? RBI is a passé stat, but it's still cool to see a Twins player at the top of the list. The choice to bring Colabello North was obviously the right choice. With injuries to Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham, I can't imagine that Colabello gets a day off anytime soon. He earned his roster spot in Spring and now he's earning his spot in the lineup on an everyday basis. If he continues to hit, he'll stay in the lineup even longer. Could he top 100 RBI on the season? I think it's possible.
     
    KWL - Jason Bartlett from the Twins fan perspective
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-NrW2cMHGfIY/U0ILtPFpK1I/AAAAAAAABWU/Pb3QowUjr0s/s1600/KWL+Bartlett.png
     
    Question from a reader - Glen Perkins had a shaky Spring, and hasn't been terribly sharp thus far in the young season. How concerned are you about this? - @whitebear1883 on Twitter
     
    I'm not very worried. This question was sent to me prior to the Sunday game and Perkins' performance in that game certainly put any worries I may have had to ease. All great relievers go through rough patches and Perkins will be no different. It would be great if he got the bad stuff out of the way and could just dominate from now until the end of the year. He's talented enough to do it. From what I've watched so far, his stuff still looks great and his velocity seems to be intact. I'll guess that he's sporting a sick 2.00ish ERA by June.
     
    Former Twin Update - Kevin Slowey
     
    Hearken back to 2011; I'm going to tell you a tale...
     
    Are you in '11 mode yet?
     
    Ok, Kevin Slowey will still be an effective MLB pitcher and Scott Baker and Nick Blackburn will both essentially be jobless. Yep, the same Kevin Slowey who apparently bit the heads off of parakeets while pitching for the Twins. He's on the Marlins. Yes, they're still a team. I promise they are. Why would I lie? Yes, there is a giant colorful statue in the bleachers.
     
    Slowey made the team as a starter in 2013 but will work as the swingman in 2014. He's off to a good start too. Ok, he's only pitched in one game, but he did go four innings, giving up just three hits and no runs, while striking out five and walking two. For a guy who couldn't get loose in the Twins' bullpen, he's been pretty good in relief with the Marlins over the past two seasons. Maybe he just didn't like the trees at Target Field.
     
    New Poll
     
    I get a little repetitive at times. I harp on things. I have my pet causes. I put up a new poll at my blog to try to get out in front of my own repetition. Please vote in the poll that sits below Kevin Slowey's face as a baseball. It's important to democracy.
     
    Link to Something I wrote - Mailbag
     
    I'm shameless when it comes to promoting things I've written in the past. Why, just recently I've promoted my newest screenplay, an analysis of the 1991 Twins dancing video and some player profiles I wrote throughout the Winter. Now, I'm not here to promote those items, I'm here to promote the fake mailbag I wrote last Friday. I answered some truly insightful questions and I think you just might enjoy it. Here you go.
     
    Parting Haiku
     
    Twins are .500
    But it is a long season
    Still a happy fan
     
    Have a great week, everyone!
  20. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at
    Ligaments are stupid. The 12 people who follow me on Twitter already know that I feel this way. It's childish perhaps and it certainly ignores their important function in the human body, but I don't care; ligaments suck. A report came out this morning that super prospect and ultimate swagger-haver Miguel Sano needs Tommy John surgery, a surgery performed to replace the ulnar collateral ligament in an elbow. In this case, it's the right elbow of one of the more exciting prospects in recent Twins history.
     
    As I said, ligaments are stupid.
     
    Why can't they just be cool and stop fraying and ripping and tearing? For Sano, this means that he will almost certainly miss the entire season, a season that many felt would include his MLB debut. I had just written about Sano on Thursday and I listed him as the Twins' 5th most important player in 2014. I felt this way because of his massive power potential and the fact that he was nearly MLB-ready. Well, number 5 went down before the second Spring Training game. We're off to a great start in 2014, Twins fans!
     
    By the way, you can still read that post. Just replace all the 2014s with 2015s and add a sentence about Tommy John recovery. It's basically all the same, as this surgery shouldn't change anything I wrote, just his timeline. You'll be fine. Eat some breakfast, it's early.
     
    Wallowing aside, this isn't a huge deal in the long run. Sano will be just 21 in May and will resume his career just one year later. This shouldn't affect his power, it shouldn't affect his ability to hit and it shouldn't even affect his arm, should he make a full recovery. Basically, the Twins lose Sano for a year and Twins' fans lose what could have been one of the biggest events of the Twins' 2014 season - Sano's MLB debut.
     
    In some ways, the Twins were lucky with the timing, since Sano will miss this season prior to being added to the active roster. Basically, they will get to keep his entire pre-free agency career, instead of losing a full season of team control (Francisco Liriano, for example). In addition, they found out early in the season and Sano can have his surgery soon and be ready in time for Spring Training in 2015. There's also no reason to believe that the Twins can't rely on Sano for 2015 in the same way they had planned for 2014. Although it does put in doubt his ability to make the 2015 Opening Day roster, seemingly a lock prior to this surgery.
     
    Of course, if he had surgery back in November, he'd be four months into recovery...
     
    Therefore, I'm sure we'll see a lot of smarmy quotes about the Twins' medical staff and how inept they are. I have to say, I can't blame them in this instance. This whole elbow fracas started in November, when Sano was shut down while playing in the Arizona Fall League. At that time, he was diagnosed with just an elbow strain and that diagnosis was confirmed by renowned surgeon Dr. James Andrews. If Dr. Andrews doesn't suggest surgery, you know that a guy doesn't need surgery. You could be shopping at the same mall as Dr. Andrews, turn your back for just one second, and BANG, your ACL has been repaired. I've seen it a hundred times.
     
    Then, Mike Berardino reported in January that Sano was confident that he didn't need surgery. Sano said that his elbow felt pretty good and that he was throwing again. There was no reason to sound the alarm. Well, January optimism has officially given way to February and March sadness. Sano barely started Spring Training before being shut down with elbow soreness. He had an MRI yesterday and today he's gone for a year. Although, if he recovers quickly, he might be able to play some Winter ball. Who knows at this point, it all depends on how his surgery and recovery goes.
     
    Yesterday, I preached overreaction. Today, I want everyone to chill. Sano will miss all of 2014 and that's a huge bummer. However, he's still the same prospect he was earlier this week and he should resume what could be a monster career in fewer than 365 days. That's just a shade over 31 million seconds, so start counting if that makes you feel better! You can complain about the Twins' medical staff, but I don't think they can save a ligament that is hell-bent on tearing. You can be upset that the Twins season is ruined, but that's just not true. Basically, Sano will be out of our lives for a year, but then he'll be back, just as smiley and promising as before (with a shiny replacement ligament that we can name and use as a mascot, if we want to).
     
    Ligaments suck, but what can you do? I hope that Sano's surgery and recovery go well and that he'll be ready to hit some dingers in 2015.
  21. Brad Swanson

    February Mailbag

    By Brad Swanson,

    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    I'm not really one to brag, but this mailbag is starting to take on a life of its own. I have not one, not two, not three, but FOUR questions from people who are not me. Sure, three of those questions are from the same person, but who are you to pick nits? In fact, what would you do? Wha-wha-wha-what would you do? I know what I'm going to do. Answer these questions:
     
    I really enjoy reading your blog - keep up the good work! Anyway, I saw something that the Twins intend to ship (Andrew) Albers to a Korean team for cash considerations. Why would the Twins ship their Minor League pitcher of the year, and one of their most promising young prospects off for nothing? Seems kind of crazy for me.
     
    Emailer, Webspace
     
    First, thank you very much for the positive feedback. I really do appreciate it. I take very little about this blog seriously, but the nice things that people say are truly valued. I also appreciate the constructive criticism. The invitations to shove "x" into or up "y" are not quite as cool, but I have a strict policy in my life to consider everything. So...Albers...right!
     
    On the surface, it makes almost zero sense. Albers might have been the best human interest story of the 2013 season. His first two starts didn't come with the fanfare of Kyle Gibson's debut, but Albers delivered A+ results. However, after those first two starts, Albers managed just a 5.70 ERA in 8 starts. He barely averaged 5 innings, gave up 58 hits and only managed 21 strikeouts. Albers isn't a strikeout pitcher, but a strikeout every other inning is paltry, if we're being kind.
     
    Then, you have to consider the fact that the Twins likely have just one spot open in the rotation, with Ricky Nolasco, Phil Hughes, Kevin Correia and Mike Pelfrey already penciled in. That left Albers, Vance Worley, Scott Diamond, Kyle Gibson and Sam Deduno to battle for the fifth spot. Albers would likely have been near the bottom of that list, so the Twins did him a solid and let him pursue a season in Korea where he'll get to pitch and maybe build himself some value for an MLB return. I imagine that when he is ready to come back to the Majors, the Twins and Albers will be mutually interested.
     
    Although I cannot read your mailbag before it is posted, I have a follow-up to a question I am guessing you will answer about Andrew Albers. If you could ship one Twins player to Korea, who would it be and why? Thanks, big fan -
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-jyNLzmzNez0/UvGnkkFf_vI/AAAAAAAABQI/Ewi4GXqjffQ/s1600/449262809_67838bd97d_o.jpg
     
    Is this Airplane? Well, the ideal candidate signed with the Phillies, so he's out. If I'm going to start selling humans, I'd prefer to make a big score and get out of the game ASAP. Thus, I'm selfishly selling Joe Mauer to Korea for 25 million bucks. I'd have all the money I need to live or at least all the money I'd need to get myself a sweet one-hour documentary about wasting a fortune in a short period of time. I'd be hated in Minnesota and likely in the U.S., but I could just build a gold wall to keep angry people away. I'd also build a catapult, but that's just for fun.
     
    Here's a three-pack from @TalktoContact, the always entertaining Twins podcast. Follow them on Twitter and listen to their podcast. If you do, I will be your friend.
     
    Which current Twin forecasted to make the 25-man roster is the edgiest? Does anyone have attitude? Grit?
     
    Edge. Attitude. Grit. I can't find these words in Excel. I literally have no idea how to sort these columns. I'm going to try to answer this anyway. I'm not sure that anyone has "grit" or "edge" but I do think that some of these players have "Minnesota Grit," a term I just invented that some will certainly find offensive. Brian Dozier and Trevor Plouffe had long hair, so that counts. Sam Deduno eats necklaces, so he's got MG (Minnesota Grit, acronyms sell, baby!).
     
    Typically, these terms are used to try to attach value to an otherwise valueless player because he plays really hard. Or, it's used to describe the guy on the team who is most likely to mix his chaw with sunflower seeds and dirt from the infield. I don't think the Twins have one of those guys, so I'll go with Sam Deduno and his own version of pica.
     
    How is it possible that Gardy and Rick Anderson both still have their jobs?
     
    Why is Anderson Andy? I wish he was Ricky. Gardy and Ricky has a nice ring. Gardy and Andy is a mouthful. Seriously, say it out loud right now. Now try yelling it. Is your boss coming over?
     
    Anyway, I think they have their jobs because it is very hard to pinpoint why the Twins currently suck. Well, that's not fully true. They suck because they don't have a lot of talent. In my opinion, you fire a coach or coaches when a team performs poorly relative to their talent level. If the talent level is low and the team performs at a low level, then the World makes sense. If the talent level is high and the team performs at a low level, then heads should roll. The Twins have a few talented players, but they don't have a talented team.
     
    Firing Gardy would be a symbolic move or a move that panders to those who think that "something has to change." Terry Ryan would be blaming the poor performance of his untalented roster on the manager, which might or might not be justifiable. If the Twins want to make a symbolic or pandering move, that is their prerogative. I just don't think that type of move would fix the issues with the team. Of course, the team is getting better, which brings us to...
     
    What would have to happen for Gardy to get fired during the 2014 campaign? What about AFTER the season?
     
    For Gardy to get fired during the season, he'd have to lose the clubhouse. There would have to be negative and troubling reports in the papers and on prominent blogs (read: not this one). He would have to get publicly questioned by a good player and since the Twins don't have a lot of good players, this would be quite difficult. Gardy is a players' manager, so I don't see this scenario playing out.
     
    For Gardy to get fired after the season, the Twins would have to lose another 96 games (or more). That symbolic, pandering move I mentioned earlier? That would look pretty good to the Front Office after another terrible season. If it meant that Terry Ryan and other prominent members of the Front Office could keep their jobs, then I think they would fire Gardy for self-preservation. I know I would. In fact, if my company told me, "you need to fire Ron Gardenhire, or we'll find a new teacher to take your place," I'd do it immediately. It would be unprecedented. For the record, I think the Twins will win 70-75 games in 2014 and Gardy will keep his job. This is all on the record.
    Is Josmil Pinto Chris Parmelee? Thanks, I love reading.
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    That question is confusing. I think it needs a comma...or a dash...or a hyphen...or something else...
     
    This obviously refers to each player having crazy hot Septembers and bringing hot, crazy expectations with them to Spring Training the next year. It seems that some are fearful that Pinto will flop in his season-starting debut, much like Parmelee did. I get it. However, we're talking apples and oranges here. These are two completely different players. It isn't even about their talent or performance or pedigree or what have you. It's as simple as the fact that they are two completely different human beings with different DNA and genes and pheromones and everything.
     
    There are a billion examples of a player having a good September call-up and then being a good player going forward. There are a billion examples of a player having a terrible September call-up and then being a good player going forward. You can mix and match good with terrible in those phrases all you like. In fact, I'm creating a turn-based iPhone app for that very purpose. Boring Words with Friends.
     
    The fact remains that each player is an individual. So, no, Pinto is not Parmelee. He's Pinto. And you know what, that's pretty neat.
     
    Are you excited for pitchers and catchers? I know I am.
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Not to disagree with myself a loyal reader, but no, not really. I know this is the symbolic start of the baseball season, but it's not a real start of the baseball season. I love playing catch, I kind of love watching pros play catch, but I'm not a fan of reading about players playing catch. Once the actual Spring Training games get going, I'll be excited for about an hour. Then some scrub like Gloob Newstrom will step up to the plate wearing number 87 and I'll remember why I never make it through a full Spring Training game.
     
    I'm excited for Opening Day in April though. Sorry to be such a bummer. It's part of my new plan to end every post on a bummer.
     
    NOT! Here's a rare photo of Ron Gardenhire in concert:
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-6rD-dIbrRD8/UvGkw24YUPI/AAAAAAAABP8/iLcu1CrfyMM/s1600/gardysings.jpg
     
    Oh, evenflow. Have a great weekend, everyone!
  22. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Hey all, time for another installment of Forgotten Twins? If you don't remember, I scour the most important websites in the universe to determine if a particular Twins player is forgotten by society. I decided to sub out Bing for Fangraphs going forward. I thought it would be funny to use multiple search engines, but they're all the same, so the joke is on me. ENOUGH EXPLAINING!
     
    My memories of Fred Manrique
     
    This is going to sound awful, but I remember his dork glasses. I can picture him now...
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-F4wF4LCLJko/UthpHOCrc1I/AAAAAAAABMg/guwSiyOPVgo/s1600/manrique.jpg
     
    See? He could. Because of the glasses. My apologies, I had hoped that picture would be bigger.
     
    Now, making fun of someone who wears glasses is really uncool. I know this now. I was only aware of Fred Manrique as a seven-year-old with perfect vision. It was hard to keep my anti-glasses feelings to myself. Well, this joke is also on me, as this is what I look like today:
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-PbPzqDNOzis/UthpOhi7JjI/AAAAAAAABMo/vRxXBwne2XY/s1600/weird+al.jpg
     
    Fate is weird. Let's move on.
     
    Baseball Reference
     
    Manrique played just one season with the Twins. He hit .237/.254/.346, or as I like to call it "Rivas Style!" Manrique accumulated 1459 plate appearances over his nine-year career. He racked up 340 hits and 65 walks. He barely played three years' worth of games in those nine seasons. He played 376 of his games at second base, including all but one of his games with the Twins. Manrique very nearly went 20-20...in his career, ending with 20 bombs and 18 base bombs (a term I am trying to coin for stolen bases).
     
    Oh, and he was traded for Sammy Sosa. Don't look at the rest of the trade, just leave it alone.
     
    Fangraphs
     
    I'm adding Fangraphs to appeal to the saber crowd. From what I can ascertain on Fangraphs, Manrique was gritty. Wait. He had a .105 isolated power, which is poor. He had a 4.5% walk rate, which is poor. He had a .294 BABIP, which is about average. Manrique accumulated 2.0 fWAR in his career, almost entirely from some solid defense he played in the 1987 season with the White Sox. It's cold, but you could probably call him Fred Man-reeky.
     
    Wikipedia
     
    Wikipedia tells me that Manrique is a fifty-year-old former second baseman. That's a solid lead. He was born three weeks before my Dad, which is conveniently left out of his entry. He is from Bolivar State, Venezuela. Another former, forgotten (?) Twins player is from Ciudad Bolivar and you'll never guess who. Les Straker. It's Les Straker. According to his entry, he was a solid second baseman and an above-average shortstop. Whoever wrote this entry must have known something that his managers didn't know. In 1981, he was the youngest player in the Majors. Trivia!
     
    Google
     
    A cursory Google search brings back many glasses images of Manrique. I did find this card and he isn't wearing glasses:
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-ousqm7DeN5k/UthqnJsYw4I/AAAAAAAABM0/Uy_ETysy7KY/s1600/manriquenoglasses.jpg
     
    I gotta say, he's pretty handsome. He looks good in his glasses too. A few pages into the search, I found this article about Manrique's ejection from a random June game in 1990. Apparently, he didn't like Jim Joyce's strike zone. Or, he knew that Joyce would one day rob us (and Armando Galarraga to a lesser extent) of a perfect game and staged a protest 20 years in advance. All I'm saying is that Manrique might be a Timecop.
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-Nh9IoCCEttk/Uthq9If8mKI/AAAAAAAABM8/ckD7k8LxxhY/s1600/manriquetimecop.jpg
     
    Oh, and apparently Manrique is a member of Twins Daily. See. Now, he hasn't blogged or posted, so I'm guessing he's feeling self-conscious. Please Mr. Manrique, share your wisdom. Don't be afraid.
     
    eBay
     
    Most Manrique-related items on eBay are baseball cards. However, I did find this curious 8 x 10 autographed photo. It appears that Manrique wanted people think that he peed his own autograph. Don't believe me, check it out. I'm not sure what that accomplishes, but I imagine it makes for a good urban legend.
     
    If you don't like peeing autographs, here's a 50 baseball card lot of all Manrique! There are only 21 different cards for some reason. One of the cards appears to be a math cheat sheet or something and another has the word "glossy" on top. You can check the lot out for yourself. Was Manrique a Timecop nicknamed "Glossy?"
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-neBDPhVWczY/UthrLaXcArI/AAAAAAAABNE/WzEmxFc7bqA/s1600/manriquetimecopglossy.jpg
     
    Facebook
     
    Manrique does have a Facebook fan page, but it's just his Wikipedia entry. He doesn't even get a picture. Perhaps we could use this image:
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-rRoLIZZflRY/Uthrf6RqbvI/AAAAAAAABNM/DxzVerlRnIU/s1600/manriquesplits.jpg
     
    See, he's a Timecop! 18 people like Manrique. I'd "like" him too, but I wouldn't be able to deal with his constant updates. I'd probably block him like I block all my friends and co-workers. Just for the record, Manrique has three more likes than this blog. You can fix that...by liking Manrique's page and righting the ratio.
     
    Twitter
     
    I found a few cool Manrique-related tweets:

    Happy Birthday Fred Manrique! Former Minnesota Twins legend. pic.twitter.com/ACv5e1K9QD
    — H.M.S. Pinniped (@hmspinniped) November 5, 2013
     
    This one (link) makes me laugh because it would be so easy to find a card with Manrique actually in a Twins uniform.

    Celebrity Sausage 4/2~ The Fred Manrique~ Portuguese Linguica with Saffron Rouille and Casa de Mendevil Velho Cheese
    — Hot Doug's (@hotdougs) April 2, 2013
     
    I'm not sure what to say...

    @EdRad Fred Manrique! I love it! I have his autograph... he was the happiest person ever to give me one. That's awesome.
    — Brian (@Go_GoSox) August 13, 2011
     
    I really like that one. It humanizes him. Even if he does like to make signature urine.
     
    Youtube
     
    Sadly, our beloved Fred Manrique is not represented on Youtube. You can blame MLB and their totalitarian video policy for that. Instead, here are a couple of youngsters also named Fred Manrique, each showcasing their skills.
     

     

     
    Looks good to me.
     
    Random Person
     
    I stopped someone in the hallway at work today and asked if they remembered Fred Manrique. He said, "Was he a math teacher?" Interesting that he would ask that without even knowing that Manrique wore glasses. I told him no, Manrique was on the Twins for a season in 1988. He replied, "Oh, I was two, so no, I don't remember that." I set him on fire.
     
    Verdict: Not sufficiently remembered!
     
    Manrique is remembered solely for his glasses and that is a shame. He was a useful back-up infielder who liked to suggestively autograph photos and very likely is a Timecop. He probably saved Ferris Bueller's girlfriend from some past future murder and then went on with his mall shopping. If nothing else, Manrique was a short-time Twins player with a big-time heart. I made that last part up, but doesn't it make you feel better about him?
     
    If you enjoyed this trip down Twins memory lane, why not check out the archives for more Forgotten Twins? You can just click here, you don't have to move or anything. If you'd like, make a request and I'll run him through my database.
     
    Brad Swanson is the inventor of Tae Bo. He forgot how much he enjoyed writing by-lines. He is a frequent contributor to that group of people who are in your way at the grocery store.
  23. Brad Swanson

    December Mailbag!

    By Brad Swanson,

    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    A mailbag on a Tuesday? Now I've heard of everything! Remember that song "December" by Collective Soul? This mailbag is dedicated to that song. As is typical, these are actual questions that will be actually answered by me. This month, I even have some questions written by others! Fame! FAME!
     
    The Twins have been surprisingly active this Fall, adding two starting pitchers and cutting one Australian. What do you think the Twins' next move will be? Also, what do you hope the Twins' next move will be? Thanks, I am an avid scanner of your work.
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    What an intelligent question-set! I think the Twins will make their next move this week and I think it will be something relatively minor. I could see the Twins adding a veteran backup catcher like John Buck or Kurt Suzuki, but no one overly sexy. If not a catcher, I'll bet that the next move will be for one more starting pitcher. The Twins have watched injuries and suckiness decimate their rotation for three years now. I'd guess that adding one more arm to the rotation will be a priority.
     
    My hope is that the next move the Twins make is really smart. As opposed to a dumb move, of course. I'd like to see the Twins target a starting pitching reclamation project to use in the rotation until Alex Meyer is ready, hopefully in July or August. I think there are three interesting names: Shaun Marcum, Johan Santana and Scott Baker. Each has talent and each has major injury issues. When Colby Lewis signed a minor league deal, I was slightly surprised. I'd say each of these three are in the Colby Lewis range of talent/injury concern. I'd like to see the Twins land one on either an MiLB deal or a deal in the one year, $1-3 million range. Seems like a decent investment.
     
    Real Questions! - Thanks to Paul and Eric Pleiss of the always entertaining Talk to Contact podcast and Puckett's Pond and Knuckleballs, respectively. Check out their work on the internet.
     
    Do you think the Twins will sign a 1B/DH type guy, or even a 3B or middle infielder off the of free agent market? Essentially what I want to know is, will Nick Punto or Mark Reynolds be a Twin in 2014?
     
    -P
     
    The greatest flaw in a fake mailbag is that while you wait for questions to answer, things actually happen. Thus, Nick Punto signed a very fair contract to hustle for the As in 2014 and probably 2015 because they will fall in love with him like everyone else does.
     
    Reynolds is still a free agent and I don't hate the idea of bringing him in on a small deal. Reynolds mostly sucks, but he does have massive power. He has 20 or more home runs in each of the last six seasons. Sure his career batting average is .233 and he strikes out more than I fail to come up with analogies, but his awesome right-handed power could play well at Target Field.
     
    That said, I think that Jason Bartlett will be the only Twins' infield signing this off-season. Joe Mauer moving to first closed off that position for the next half-decade, Brian Dozier is entrenched at second and the left side can be cobbled together with Trevor Plouffe, Pedro Florimon, Eduardo Escobar and possibly Bartlett.
     
    Twins HOF voting is open on Facebook (Facebook voting is, obviously, the best way to make any decision), who are you voting for besides Chuck Knoblauch?
     
    -Eric
     
    Don't forget about Twitter! I remember when everyone thought that Thomas Dewey beat Harry Truman in the 1948 presidential election, but everyone forgot about the Twitter results. I actually wrote an entire post about my Twins Hall of Fame ballot. If you missed it, you can find it here. If you don't like reading, I would vote for Knoblauch, Shane Mack, Tom Brunansky, Brian Harper and Corey Koskie. I would not vote for Dazzle. I have standards.
     
    What does the former Minnesota Twin Matt Fox say?
     
    -Eric
     
    Ok, I did not get this reference. I listen to "The Starters," a truly glorious NBA podcast. One of their promos has Rick Fox (former NBA player and "actor") saying, "The dog says woof, the cat says meow, but what does the Fox say?" He laughs like a total knob after he says it too. Real creepy laugh, like he's going to try to steal your significant other. Anyway, the reference comes from a viral video seen by literally millions of people and not by me. I prefer
    , with just over 17,000 views, mostly from me. I have every intention of re-casting this video with current Twins players. Just be patient.  
    That said, I am guessing Matt Fox would say "thanks for giving me one start, Twins." Or, he might say, "why couldn't I have been born just three years later when the Twins really sucked and could have used a random AAA starter for a few months." It just depends on how negative he is.
     
    The Twins missed out on Jarrod Saltinecracker and I am bummed out. I am not ready for the Josmil Pinto era and I think the Twins need Salty or the veteran presence/punch-ability of A.J. Pierzynski. What do you think?
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Not to go all meta and disagree with mysel...I mean a reader, but I am glad the Twins didn't land Saltalamacchia. I outlined five very reasonable reasons why in a post here. More self-promotion! Basically, I don't think Saltalamacchia is that great and much of his success in the past has a flukiness to it that scares me away from a three-year deal when Pinto could end up being a better offensive player as early as 2014. I'm sure he'll enjoy his two months with the Marlins.
     
    Ok hotshot, you always think you're so smart. I have report cards that say otherwise. How many games do the Twins win in 2014? Don't be gutless like you usually are and give a range. Pick a number. Put your name on it.
     
    Brad S's Mom, St. Paul, MN
     
    First off, most of my teachers were out to get me. Second, I'm going to be brave and say 74 wins. The additions of Nolasco and Hughes might be somewhat overrated for 2014. My opinion is that each pitcher is pretty good and could be better than that if things break correctly. I am more excited about their signings as a symbol of a potential shift in thinking within the Front Office. The Twins either see that free agency is an important component in building a team or they feel the team is close to contending and need to fill remaining holes quickly. Either way, I prefer that to treading water.
     
    Back to 2014. The Twins won 66 games in 2013, but their Pythagorean record gave them 63 wins. Those figures are pretty close, so I don't put too much stock in the difference. Replacing Mike Pelfrey and Vance Worley/Scott Diamond/Pedro Hernandez with Hughes and Nolasco has to add a few wins to the total. It just has to. I mean, look at those names. Gross.
     
    In addition, the Twins played all of September without their best player (Mr. Charisma himself, Joe Mauer!). The Twins were 8-20 in September. Mauer last played on August 19. The Twins were 54-69 on that day, good for a 71-win pace. I don't really think Mauer was the reason why the team fell off that pace, but he was likely part of the reason. In addition, a bad team is likely to use a lot of odd pieces in September, which could explain why guys like Doug Bernier, Eric Fryer, Cole De Vries, Pedro Hernandez, Shairon Martis and Liam Hendriks were playing in September.
     
    The team I watched in 2013 was more competitive than the team I watched in 2012. Both teams won 66 games. I believe the Twins were better in 2013 and could have won more games if the needed/wanted to. I think that the team will be trying a bit harder to win in September of 2014 and I think the roster will be more talented as well. 74 wins seems reasonable.
     
    Both the real and fake mailbags have been emptied and I feel very satisfied. If you want to contribute a question to a future mailbag, feel free to send me an email at kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com. Or, you can find me on Twitter - @bridman77. Or, you can come to my house. It's a little messy right now. Have fun, everyone!
  24. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Man o' Man, the Hall of Fame season is all around us! I see columns and posts everywhere! I even contributed a post to my own blog yesterday, where I went through my personal fake Hall of Fame ballot. If you missed it, check it out! Today, I want to discuss an even more important and personally significant Hall of Fame: The Minnesota Twins Hall of Fame.
     
    Voting is going on as we speak, using the democratic hallmarks of Facebook and Twitter. The ballot has been live for a week or so, and I wanted to weigh in on my official picks for the Twins Hall of Fame. I have identified seven Twins I might vote for (eventually, I'm very busy of course). You aren't going to see a lot of advanced stats here. The Twins Hall of Fame is all about wonderment. It's about memories and dingers. It's about the intangibles. It's really about me not wanting to do any research for this. And really, isn't that what life is all about?
     
    I'm only voting for players I've watched play. I'll leave Larry Hisle's campaign to my Dad, who has no clue how to use Twitter. Godspeed, Larry and Dad.
     
    Tom Brunansky (OF, 1982-88) - Yep
     
    Bruno's debut with the Twins was just shortly before I was born. He made it through six and a sliver seasons with the Twins before being jettisoned for a vastly inferior player with feathered hair. Now, he's back with the organization as a coach, he had an epic mustache and he was a really important part of a World Series team. He has the ninth most home runs in Twins history. I think Michael Cuddyer is a lock for the Twins HOF in the future, and Bruno was better. I think he's a worthy candidate and he gets my vote.
     
    Dan Gladden (OF, 1987-91) - Nah
     
    This is hard for me. He won two World Series with the Twins, scored the winning run in 1991 and I actually enjoy Dazzle as a broadcaster. The problem is that he wasn't really a very good player. He was the team's leadoff hitter, but didn't really have the skills to hit in that position in the order. He only had a .318 OBP as a Twin, lower than guys like Delmon Young, Scott Leius and Nick Punto. Gladden was actually pretty bad in both World Series seasons too. I'm not sure how exclusive the Twins want their Hall of Fame to be, but Dan Gladden doesn't really fit with the guys currently included.
     
    Brian Harper (C, 1988-93) - Yes
     
    Only four players in Twins history have a higher batting average than Harper (minimum 2400 plate appearances): Rod Carew, Joe Mauer, Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack (who we'll get to shortly). Rare air. Harper provided quality offense and adequate defense at one of the most important positions on the diamond. He was consistent and durable in his six seasons with the Twins. He was a very important part of a World Series winning team. I consider him underrated, although I'm sure stats guys would think he's overrated. I'm voting for him regardless.
     
    Chuck Knoblauch (2B, 1991-97) - Oh goodness, yes.
     
    This is a slam dunk. Knoblauch took over as the best player on the team from Kirby Puckett, and actually did so in 1994 while Puckett was still active. Knoblauch is right behind Harper for sixth on that batting average list from above. He has the most stolen bases in Twins history, the sixth most runs, the 10th most hits and the 11th most doubles. He also has the seventh highest rWAR (for hitters). Simply put, he's one of the best players in Twins history. We (as fans) have a complicated history with Knobby, but it's time to bury the hatchet. I think he will get a ridiculous ovation when he comes out for his enshrinement.
     
    Corey Koskie (3B, 1998-2004) - Yep
     
    Koskie probably is the most underrated player in Twins history. It's not really that fans didn't appreciate his contributions, it's that he contributed even more than we thought he did at the time. Only Mauer, Carew, Knoblauch, Harmon Killebrew, Matt Lawton (who probably should be on this ballot), Steve Braun and Mack have a higher career OBP with the Twins (min 2400 PA). He also has the tenth highest slugging percentage in Twins history (min 2400 PA too). He was a great defender early in his career and remained good until he left for Toronto. Leaving for Canada is a ding, but his career with the Twins was great.
     
    Shane Mack (OF, 1990-94) - Oh yeah
     
    Mack doesn't have the longevity of others on this list, but he was a fantastic player and produced better than everyone but Knoblauch when he was with the team. Using that 2400 PA sample I already have in Baseball Reference's season index, Mack is 4th in batting average, 4th in slugging, and 7th in OBP. If it weren't for the stupid players' strike, he may have stayed longer and he'd be that high in the counting stat categories as well. He was really good in Japan. Even with just five years of service, he still has the 15th highest rWAR in Twins' history (hitters only). Plus, I said this on Twitter last week, he's been AWOL from team functions for years. This might bring him back into Twins Territory. It's a human interest story AND he's deserving. Let's do this, Twins fans!
     
    Kevin Tapani (P, 1989-95) - Eh, maybe...no
     
    A lot of the methods I used to justify players above, could be used for Tapani. He's 9th all-time in Twins career wins, 9th in innings pitched and 12th in strikeouts. However, the Twins have some outstanding pitchers in their history and then a whole lot of unimpressive hurlers. Emphasis on hurl. Only ten pitchers have thrown 1000 or more innings for the Twins and Tapani is second-worst. Tapani wasn't a bad pitcher, but he was more of the best of a mediocre bunch than a good pitcher among other good pitchers. He was outstanding in 1991, and average or worse in every other season. I can't vote for him.
     
    There you have it. It's very hard for me to make an informed decision about these players. I watched them growing up and I loved each of them. All I want to do is find reasons why they should be added to this important institution. I'll enjoy watching their ceremony and I might even try to go to Mack's in person. I'm not very objective, but I don't care. This Hall of Fame is for the fans, and I was a big fan of all of these players. I'll probably even vote for Gladden and Tapani, just because I can and it's fun.
     
    Thanks for reading. Who are you voting for?
  25. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! I haven't posted these here lately because I am comically lazy. Luckily for the both of you who care, I have an archive set up right here. Enjoy!
     
    State of the Team
     
    1999 Record: 63-97, 5th in the AL Central
    1999 Overview: At least fans were only subjected to 160 games.
    2000 Outlook: Welcome to the Jay Canizaro era!
     
    Players Lost - Free Agency
     
    As has been the case for the last few off-seasons, the Twins didn't lose anyone of substantive value because they barely employed anyone of substantive value. After the 1999 season, the following "notable" names left for greener pastures: Brent Gates, Tony Fiore, Gary Rath, Shane Bowers and Kevin Ohme. Sweet mix.
     
    A few reasonably notable players did leave after the '99 season including a reliable reliever, a local catcher and a former ROY. The Twins drafted Mike Trombley way back in 1989. At his peak, he was a decent, but not great reliever who could throw a lot of innings and get some strikeouts. He peaked in 1996 and at well over a million bucks per season, he was a luxury not needed on a very crappy team. He left for Baltimore and never looked back...until he returned in 2002 for four innings.
     
    Marty Cordova was also drafted in 1989 and won the AL Rookie of the Year award in 1995. In his five seasons with the Twins, he hit .277/.348/.451, providing great value as a former fifth-round pick. He never had a season as fine as his rookie season, and at times he was pretty brutal. All in all, not bad for this era. Cordova signed a free agent deal with the Red Sox and didn't make their team out of Spring Training. Yikes. He did latch on with the Blue Jays the next day and played four more seasons in the Majors.
     
    Terry Steinbach was drafted in 1983 and signed with the Twins before the 1997 season. He was coming off of a monster '96 season and he didn't really match his '96 numbers in his three combined seasons with the Twins. That said, it was fun to have a local boy on the team. I guess. He retired after the '99 season.
     
    Players Gained - Free Agency
     
    Are you ready?!? JASON MAXWELL! BOBBY AYALA! BUTCH HUSKEY! TODD RIZZO! ROBIN JENNINGS! RICK GREENE! MARCUS JENSEN! Let's get physical! The Twins went ape this off-season, right?
     
    Maxwell spent his 2000 season as a utility man, playing games at second, short and third. He also hit .243/.298/.324, meaning he had no utility at the plate. Not to fear, he was signed to just a one-year deal and there's simply no way the Twins would bring him back. Oh wait, they did. They spent over $400,000 on Maxwell over two seasons, money that would have easily been better spent on eWorld stock.
     
    Butch Huskey is likely best remembered for his heroic quest to tear down the Berlin Wall. He even went so far as to show the danger of walls when he crashed skeleton-first into the left-field wall at the Metrodome. Sadly, no one had the heart to tell poor Butch that the Berlin Wall had been torn down over a decade earlier. Oh well, at least he hit .223/.306/.353 in 64 games before being traded as PART of a deal that netted the Twins "The Immortal Todd Sears."
     
    We'll get to Ayala in a minute.
     
    TRADEZ!/Rule Five Madnezzz!
     
    The Twins had the very first pick in the Rule 5 draft. This was their trophy for finishing dead last in all of Major League Baseball in 1999. With that first pick, the Twins selected Jared Camp, a walk-heavy, 24-year-old reliever who pretty much sucked.
     
    Now, the next part can be looked at in two ways. One, the Twins realized their mistake and quickly worked out a deal with the Florida Marlins, who had selected a 20-year-old dude named Johan Santana. The Twins would get Santana and some cash and the Marlins would get Camp, the pitcher they truly wanted.
     
    Or, you can look at it very cynically and deduce that the Twins really wanted Santana, but they really, really wanted more cash. Therefore, they slow-played the Marlins for extra chedda.
     
    However it went down and however you want to look at it, the trade for Santana was probably the best deal the Twins have ever made. Santana blossomed into the best pitcher in recent Twins' history, won 2 Cy Youngs, earned 2 more and basically won the hearts of all of Minnesota, North Dakota, South Dakota, Iowa, Manitoba, and parts of Wisconsin that should really just cheer for the Brewers.
     
    Kidding...or am I...I am...but wait, what if...no I love Wisconsin...I just hate those shirts that say "Bucky" more than anything...Not because of the University, because I think those shirts are stupid...
     
    Biggest Splash
     
    Bobby Ayala didn't play a single game for the Twins and therefore, he was the best signing of the off-season. By simply not playing and not providing negative value, he was the best player the Twins acquired in the off-season. Way to go, Bobby!
     
    Sorry, can't count the Santana move, there's simply no way the Twins had any clue it would work out as it did. No credit! NONE!
     
    Biggest Miss
     
    A crap-way tie for everything. What a bummer of a Fall/Winter/Early Spring. If you have to pick one, it's Huskey because I think the Twins reasonably thought he could be useful, coming off of a decent '99 season. He was useful in testing the structural integrity of the Metrodome.
     
    My Own Personal Heartbreak
     
    I always hated Tony Fiore and he wasn't around to complain about any longer. Does that count?
     
    Arbitrary Overall Assessment: F
     
    Consecutive Fs! Not only did the Twins appear to have no interest in actually fielding a competitive team, they didn't seem to have any interest in fielding a merely bad team. Look at the moves that were made this off-season! That's a stack of garbage placed between two slices of rye bread (editor's note: Brad hates rye bread). In 2012, the Twins were ripped when Kevin Correia was their best free agent pickup. Kevin Correia blows this garbage sandwich out of the water. I lived these moments and I can't remember how it felt to be a fan at this time. Then again, that might just say it all.
     
    Next Monday, we'll look at the 2000 off-season. See you then!
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