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Brad Swanson

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Blog Entries posted by Brad Swanson

  1. Brad Swanson
    I have been given good feedback (read: 2-3 kind comments) about the wackier things I have been writing. Here is something I wrote about other Minnesota Athletes playing baseball. It's odd. Thank you to anyone who has given me nice feedback, it really does mean a lot.
     
    Here is something more serious: Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    The 2013 Minnesota Twins are in a unique position. Their present doesn't seem all that promising, but their future looks pretty bright. The future is near as well. It is entirely possible that this team starts their turnaround as early as next season. Some might argue that the turnaround started in June of 2012 at the draft, with a new commitment to power pitching. This commitment was renewed during the off-season when fan-favorites Denard Span and Ben Revere were traded for young, power arms. The Twins are building something here. I can feel it.
     
    Who will be a part of that something? For many players, the 2013 season is an audition to be a part of the next good Twins team. These are young players who need to prove that they can contribute to a contending team. If they can't, the Twins have the money and resources to replace them in the near future. I feel the Twins are going to be much more likely to make major moves, once they know where their foundation lies. Who has the most to prove this season?
    Something to prove in 2013
    Brian Dozier
     
    Brian Dozier needs to show that he can replicate the plate discipline that he showed in 2011. He needs to show that he can handle second base as well. He was not a good player in 2012. He may have been rushed to Minnesota, but he didn't show a whole lot in AAA either. Dozier will be 26 this season. In order to be looked at as more than a stopgap or a utility player, he needs to show something this season. If he posts another sub .300 OBP in 2013, there is no reason to think that he should be a part of the Twins' future plans.
    Joe Benson
     
    Joe Benson is probably getting his last real chance with the Twins. He doesn't necessarily have to win the center field job outright, but he needs to show that he can make contact against major league pitching. He has a good glove and a good arm. He has power and speed. It all comes down to contact. If he can't make contact, there is no reason to keep giving him chances. All that being said, he could still carve out a niche as a fourth outfielder, even if he can't overcome the contact issues.
    Chris Parmelee
     
    Chris Parmelee needs to hit. Odds are, he will never be an above-average defender. In fact, he could be pretty bad in the outfield. However, he can't help that the Twins chose that position for him. All he can do is go out and play right field as best he can. His real value should come from his bat. I won't be expecting huge home run power, but a .275/.350/.450 line is what he will need to provide to overcome his defensive limitations. Those aren't huge numbers, but very valuable from a young, cheap player. If he doesn't hit, then he might get relegated to the bench.
    Trevor Plouffe
     
    Is Trevor Plouffe a steady, powerful third baseman, or a shaky, low-contact third baseman? Plouffe's thumb injury makes it hard to properly evaluate his 2012 season (which, was a make-or-break season in itself). Even with his early struggles and late swoon, he still slugged over .450. If he can provide steady defense and 25 home run power, he can be a very useful player going forward. If his June/July power surge was a fluke, his future might be as a super utility player, capable of playing infield and outfield.
    Brian Duensing
     
    It looks like Brian Duensing will get to show what he can produce as a full-time
    reliever in 2013. Over the past two seasons, Duensing has been a terrible starter and a productive reliever. His platoon splits are fairly massive, and it is very clear that his role should be that of a lefty specialist. The team has needed him to start games due to injuries, but should have enough depth to avoid this going forward. The question about Duensing is just how effective he can be. Is he a set-up man, or a middle reliever? We should learn the answer to that question this season.
    Something, but less to prove in 2013
    Scott Diamond
     
    Scott Diamond will be a part of the Twins' plans, regardless of how 2013 goes. However, we will get answers about whether Scott Diamond can be as effective in the future as he was in 2012. I broke his 2012 season down in detail, and I think it was real production that can be replicated. However, he has a very small margin of error. I'm excited to watch him try to duplicate his 2012 success.
     
    Liam Hendriks
     
    Liam Hendriks was not impressive as a Twin last season. However, he was very good for Rochester. As a Twin, Hendriks gave up a lot of home runs. In Rochester, he limited home runs, and posted a 2.93 K:BB ratio. While 2013 will be an important season for Hendriks, he should not be given up on if he struggles. He is only 24 and has a good minor league track record. It will be very interesting to see how he adjusts to major league hitters this season.
    Kyle Gibson
     
    Kyle Gibson is coming off of a serious injury. His innings will be limited and he may not get to pitch in Minnesota very much, if at all. He is still relatively young. He was never known for his stuff. His command and control make him a good prospect. If he needs another season to get his feel back, it would be worth giving it to him. I feel that he should be ready to contribute full-time in 2014.
    Aaron Hicks
     
    If Aaron Hicks looks awful in Spring Training and loses the center field job, that should change nothing about how we view his future. If he then goes to AAA and struggles, that should still change nothing about how we view his future. Hicks has typically adjusted to new levels slowly, and the same could happen this season. He is only 23. Defensively, he is ready to go. He'll likely need time to adjust to new pitchers. This could take a full season or more. However, he has the skills and he seems to have the aptitude to eventually adjust. I still hope he comes out like a freight train and wins the 2013 Rookie of the Year award though.
    All of the Prospects
     
    Any player that is considered a legitimate prospect should not be given up on
    during this season. If Oswaldo Arcia fails to get to Minnesota, that doesn't change his long-term future. If Miguel Sano hits 15 home runs, if Byron Buxton and Jose Berrios struggle, if Alex Meyer is a little wild, if Eddie Rosario boots a bunch of ground balls, if... You get the point. We kind of collectively gave up on Aaron Hicks last year, and look, he might be the 2013 Rookie of the Year. Right? The Twins aren't a good enough team to give up on prospects. At least not yet.
    Who did I miss? Who else has something to prove in 2013? Also, who am I wrong about? Let's chat. A/S/L please.
  2. Brad Swanson
    Originally Posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
    Warning: Stats ahead! If you prefer to learn about Scott Diamond's unique place in baseball history, you can read it here.
     
    2012 was a completely lost season for the Minnesota Twins. I don't need to rehash all the details, as we all lived it together. One of the few bright spots was a 26-year-old former Rule 5 draft pick in Scott Diamond. Diamond shined brightly for the Twins in 2012. He won 12 games, posted a 3.54 ERA and dazzled hitters and fans alike with his pinpoint control. Diamond will go into the 2013 season as the only certainty and likely would have been the Opening Day starter, had he been healthy. As it stands, the expectations for Diamond are high. Should we expect to see a repeat of 2012, or will he revert to pre-2012 Scott Diamond? Let's use any and everything FanGraphs.com has to offer to find out.
     
    The very first thing I see when I look at Diamond's stats is his below-average strikeout rate. Diamond posted a 12.6% strikeout rate in 2012, where league average was around 19%. This stat alone means only one thing - Scott Diamond doesn't strike out a lot of batters. Not exactly breaking news. However, the rate is so far below the league average, that it bears a closer inspection. Here is a list of "successful" pitchers with a career K rate of 13% or lower (from 1993-2012). I used an ERA- of 100 or less as the gauge for success, but within that number there is much fluctuation. A 100 ERA- is considered league average. I used ERA- instead of FIP- because I wanted to reflect actual performance and not peripheral skill. I only looked at pitchers who were considered starters through the majority of their career.
     
    Note: ERA- is a stat that standardizes ERA for park factors and era. It is a great way to compare ERA from players in multiple seasons and eras. A smaller number is better and 100 is always the average, much like IQ.
     
    [TABLE=width: 163]


    Aaron Cook


    Chien-Ming Wang


    Mark Gubicza


    John Lannan


    Jon Garland


    Paul Byrd


    Dennis Martinez


    Tomo Ohka


    Butch Henry
    [/TABLE]
     
    9 names and no one that really jumps off the page. We can add players who posted a 13 to 14% K rate and then these names appear: Mark Buehrle, Kenny Rogers, Orel Hershiser, Ken Hill, and Jarrod Washburn. The names are a bit more impressive, but we are also talking about a 10% increase in K rate. It is possible to have success with such a low strikeout rate, but it is pretty rare. However, K rate is just one part of the puzzle. What else should we look at?
     
    Diamond's walk rate was 4.3% last season, almost half of the league average of 8.1%. How rare is a walk rate that low? Looking at the same sample as before, here is a list of pitchers who posted a walk rate as low as Diamond's 4.3%?
     
    [TABLE=width: 163]


    Bret Saberhagen


    Bob Tewksbury


    Kevin Slowey


    Greg Maddux


    Scott Sanderson


    Josh Towers


    Brad Radke
    [/TABLE]
     
    7 names, and all but Towers and Slowey won at least 100 career games. Sanderson doesn't really fit, as the sample was from the tail end of his career. Towers and Slowey couldn't keep balls in the park, something Diamond did at roughly the league average. Maddux, Saberhagen and Radke are the class of this group. Each had a significantly higher K rate than Diamond. However, it is clear that Diamond had elite control last season. If he can maintain that control, he should remain effective.
     
    Limiting walks as Diamond does really keeps runners off of the bases. The low walk rate masks his low strikeout rate a bit. His 2.9 K/BB ratio last year was well above league average. in our 1993-2012 sample, only 75 pitchers had a K/BB ratio higher than 2.9. Of those 75 pitchers, only 6 posted an ERA- over 100: Kevin Slowey, Ricky Nolasco, Bob Tewksbury, Josh Towers, Scott Sanderson and Steve Woodard. We discussed Slowey, Towers and Sanderson in the prior paragraph. What is the deal with the other three?
     
    Let's talk a bit about LOB% or left on-base percentage. This is basically the percentage of batters that pitchers put on-base, but then strand. Low strikeout pitchers often have troubles with LOB% because they can't just rear back and get a strikeout when they need it. This seems to be why Tewksbury was only league average. He had a 11.6% career K rate, even lower than Diamond. Nolasco and Woodard have low LOB% as well, but did not have the same issues with strikeouts, as each approached league average. Their low career LOB% could indicate that they pitch worse out of the stretch, or perhaps they just pitch poorly with runners on base. Whatever the reason, this seems to be hurting their overall performance. Scott Diamond has a LOB% above league average. Now, that could regress a bit, but if he can maintain that rate, he could continue to succeed as a low-strikeout pitcher.
     
    Another reason for Diamond's success was a significantly improved ground ball rate of 53.4%. Only 58 pitchers in my 1993-2012 sample posted a rate that high. High ground ball rates mean fewer line drives and fly balls, therefore leading to fewer extra-base hits. Here is a list of pitchers from my sample who posted a ground ball rate comparable to Diamond's with a walk rate in his neighborhood: Roy Halladay, Kevin Brown and the oft-injured but always effective Brett Anderson. Not bad. Each of these pitchers gets more strikeouts, but no one limited walks like Diamond did in 2012.
     
    So, why was Diamond more effective in 2012? Why did he get more ground balls? Why did his walk rate dip? Let's look through some PitchF/x data and see if we can figure it all out.
     
    A couple factors jump out at me. Diamond has a great curve ball. He gets far more swinging strikes on that pitch than is considered normal. Batters swing at roughly half of his curve balls outside the strike zone (30% is about average), but only make contact on those half the time (68% is about average). This is pretty impressive.
     
    His fastball doesn't generate many swings and misses at all, but the fastballs that are put in play against him are mostly ground balls. This improved ground ball rate on fastballs pretty much explains his overall increase in ground ball rate. Is this something he is doing differently with his fastball? The heat charts are not perfect because the sample was much smaller in 2011, but it seems that he is working away from left-handed batters more and working in on right-handed batters a bit more. It also seems that there is a trend toward him working lower in the zone, which certainly could explain the extra ground balls.
     
    There are a couple other items I learned looking at his PitchF/x data. First, he almost exclusively uses his change-up against right handed batters. He keeps it low and away and works that pitch mostly out of the strike zone. He induces mostly weak contact with that pitch, making it an out pitch of sorts. He likes to put his curve ball down and away from left-handed batters and down an in on right-handed batters. This indicates a match in approach with his fastball. Consistently keeping the ball down is a great way to get ground balls.
     
    Looking at two specific games shows the two sides of Scott Diamond. On June 24, against the Cincinnati Reds, Diamond was efficient. He went 8 innings, struck out 7 and walked just one. PitchF/x shows that he worked the outer parts of the strike zone, kept his curve ball down, but not too far down, and ran his fastball in on righties. He kept the ball away from lefties as well. On September 16, the White Sox tagged him for six runs in 5.1 innings. Against righties, His curve ball was all over the place and his fastball was out over the middle of the plate. Against lefties, the ball was up more over the middle of the plate.
     
    A few other items. Diamond didn't have much of a platoon split in 2012, showing relatively equal effectiveness against lefties and righties. Lefties actually made better contact, but Diamond gets more strikeouts and walks against lefties as well. Home/road splits don't vary much either, although he did get hit a bit more on the road. Diamond's walk rate increased and his ground ball rate decreased as the year went on. This would help to explain his ever increasing ERA.
     
    Diamond's FIP (fielding-independent pitching, which measures peripheral skill) was pretty comparable to his final ERA. His extra-base hit rate was in line with league average, as was his home run to fly ball ratio. His BABIP was around league average as well. Basically, when Diamond was effective, he wasn't lucky, he was good.
     
    2012 Scott Diamond started hot and cooled off as the year went on. He gets a lot of ground balls with his fastball and he has a really good curve ball. He doesn't get a lot of strikeouts, but his curve ball generates a lot of swings and misses. He has truly elite control.. He can overcome the lack of strikeouts when he keeps his pitches down. He is an efficient pitcher who can go deep into games. If 2012 Scott Diamond is the real Scott Diamond, the Twins have found a uniquely effective pitcher who can defy a lot of widely-held notions about starting pitchers.
  3. Brad Swanson
    All content was originally published at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
    I figured out how the Twins could win a baseball championship. However, I don't want to waste anyone's time, so this theory falls quite a bit short of reality. If you want realistic baseball analysis, I have been writing about some Twins-related players in the last couple weeks, and you can read about them here:
     
    Joe Saunders signs with the Mariners
    Matt Capps signs with the Indians
    Kevin Slowey signs with the Marlins
    Delmon Young signs with the Phillies
     
    There.
     
    However, if your interests in baseball expand beyond reality, I invite you to join me. If nothing else, it will give you insight into what I think about on a day-to-day basis.
     
    Not long ago, I woke up in the middle of the night, laughing to myself about the thought of 9 sets of Twins playing each position on a baseball field. I'm not sure why this idea was in my head or why it woke me up, but I spent roughly the next hour lying awake trying to figure out it any team filled with the actual embodiment of their own team's nicknames would be able to defeat the Twins in a baseball game.
     
    I figured, I could go grab my laptop and start typing away. This would have certainly ended with me explaining to my pregnant wife what I was doing and the ensuing legal fees that come with a divorce. Instead, I decided to trust my brain to come up with this idea once more, only when awake, away from my wife and with time to write about it. This is that epic time! Let's do this!
     
    Before we investigate, I figure every good exercise requires rules. Essentially, rules are what separate humans from animals. I can't think of any other differences. Before you start, I am fully aware that humans are animals, Bill Nye. I have created rules that I am legally obligated to follow. Please read these rules in reverse order.
     
     

    Rule #1 - Take this very seriously.
    Rule #2 - Be as literal as possible. The Rockies will be mountains, the Red Sox will be socks, the Reds will be the color red, lying flat on the ground.
    Rule #3 - Abandon rule #2 for humor. Or, at the very least, attempted humor.
    Rule #4 - Don't address any social issues. This isn't Grantland.
    Rule #5 - Real life MLB Playoff style with 6 division winners, 4 wild-cards, 2 play-in games, and the World Series at the end.
    Rule #6 - Ignore all rules. Did you read these in the wrong order? If so, you wasted so much time reading fake rules. Just kidding, rule #6 is "have fun."

     
    Time to start!
     
    AL Central
     
    Controversy right off the bat. Are "Indians" good at baseball? Please refer to Rule #4 before commenting. In all walks of life and within all groups of people, there are people who are good at things and people who are bad at things. Within the population of Native Americans there would likely be some excellent players. If we go by all-star team rules, The Indians would have a great team.
     
    Same goes for the Royals. One would assume that being wealthy Monarchs, these Royals could pay for the best hitting and pitching coaches, plus have ample time to train. However, there is an ever shrinking number of true Monarchs, so the player pool is not huge. All in all, I bet the Royals could field a pretty good team.
     
    The Tigers would be intimidating, but show me a tiger that can hold a bat. All it would take is one brave player on the other team to go out, throw balls over the plate, and run for his life while recording enough outs to win. Plus, I think we overlook how sleepy and adorable your average tiger is. The other team could simply wait for all the Tigers to fall asleep in a heap and then just go out and pump fastballs.
     
    The White Sox stand no chance. Pairs of socks would ultimately fair very poorly against Tigers. In addition, most of the people on other teams would be wearing socks, removing any possible advantage that socks have within baseball.
     
    Ultimately, the Twins would be the heavy favorites. Think about it, if there were 9 sets of Twins on the field, the defense would be insane. Plus, there exists a great chance for pitching trickery. A set of twins with differing handedness would eliminate any platoon advantage that a right-handed Tiger, White Sock, Royal or Indian would have. I'm not sure how hitting would work, but I don't think it is reasonable to expect both Twins to hold the same bat or anything. If they could work out a way to turn into a giant wheel while running, as in cartoons, they could really break up some double plays.
     
    Projected Division Finish:
    Twins
    Indians*
    Royals
    Tigers
    White Sox
     
    *Wild Card winner
     
    AL West
     
    We've all seen Angels in the Outfield. We all know that Angels can turn a broken-down Tony Danza into Justin Verlander. But, can Angels play as well without human bodies to manipulate? A team composed of Angel-assisted players would be excellent, but I feel that an all Angel team might be paper champs. I feel like they would struggle with stronger teams and possibly have to forfeit games to take care of much more important things. However, if the Angels were former MLB players, things could get really interesting. A team filled with deceased former Angel baseball players would be impressive, but still might have the same issues as a team filled with Angels who were not Angels.
     
    The Astros are new to this division. Astros seems to be short for Astronauts, so lots of science dorks here. If I have learned anything from the Twins' clubhouse it's that dorks need not apply. I still think they would struggle in this division filled with manly men and Angels. Though, some dorks are manly, which I think is probably the most important take away from this exercise. This would be a great opportunity for the smart folk to get back at the jocks. Speaking of jocks...
     
    The Athletics would be a team filled with athletes. That sounds pretty promising. However, take time to think of those athlete prospects that never pan out because they don't have baseball skills. They just sprint around, jumping and hurdling, but they can't make good contact. I'm not falling for it. I say these athletes would struggle against big-league Angel or Twin pitching. They would lead the league in eye-popping plays though.
     
    This division really comes down to whether you think fishermen or cowboys are better at baseball. The Mariners would have the advantage on the water, but Rangers are land mammals. Subscribing to my theory about samples of people, I am guessing both teams would be stacked. I give the slight edge to the Rangers, due to baseball being played on land.
     
    Projected Division Finish:
    Rangers
    Mariners *
    Angels
    Astros
    Athletics
     
    *Wild Card winner
     
    AL East
     
    Quite possibly the weakest and most bird-laden division of them all. Blue Jays and Orioles are vastly different birds. Blue Jays are a type of bird (there are 4 subspecies) and Orioles are an entire family of birds. That means the Orioles have an much larger bird pool to pull from. If the two teams played each other, my money would be on the Orioles. Although, Blue Jays are much prettier.
     
    The Rays would be terrible. A ray of sunlight is powerful. Powerful enough to power a building if working in tandem with its fellow rays. However, rays can't play baseball. Well, can't is the wrong word. There isn't a rule against it or any sort of discrimination, but they wouldn't be good at baseball. Occasionally the Rays would get in the eyes of the people and birds they are playing against, but I am guessing the Rays would have an equally difficult time holding a bat or glove. They might burn a hole through them too, which would just be a waste. I'd personally vote to contract the Rays.
     
    For my analysis of the Red Sox please copy and paste my thoughts on the White Sox into Word. Hit ctrl+F, then click the Replace tab. From there, choose to replace the word White with Red and the word Tigers with any divisional bird of your choosing.
     
    The Yankees would absolutely run away with this division. They are the only humans in the division, which would be a huge advantage in the areas of size, strength and brains. Sunglasses could be worn to combat the Rays, as there is no specific rule against it. Now it is true that the Yankees would only consist of Northerners, which would limit the pool of players, but not enough to lower their talent level to that of birds or socks. Plus, Randy Johnson has already proven that
    when it comes to baseball.  
    Projected Division Finish:
    Yankees
    Orioles
    Blue Jays
    Rays
    Red Sox
     
    NL Central
     
    Pirates have scurvy. It seems important to point that out. Scurvy results from a vitamin C deficiency. It is easy to treat; just add vitamin C. However, Pirates are notoriously stubborn and constantly plundering. Adding all these factors together, I don't expect the Pirates to be very consistent. This will likely be a very tough adjustment for Pittsburgh fans, who have come to expect a very consistent baseball team.
     
    Brewers make beer. I know it is shocking that the Wisconsin team would be beer-related, but my sources indicate this is true. Brewers worry me because they could consume their product and then try to play baseball impaired. However, anyone with good business sense knows that you do not embezzle, even beer. Therefore, I am not concerned with impairment. The Brewers would be scurvy-free human beings, which is huge in this division.
     
    Cubs are bears, but smaller. In fact, they are child bears. Now, full-sized bears would be nearly unstoppable. I am nearly certain we could train them to hold bats (or tape bats to them) and bears are freaking strong so there would be mass dingers. Cubs are smaller and more docile. They are strong, but not as strong. Plus, they are still developing. I think a team of beer makers or treasure seekers could outwit young bears. This diagram might help (remember, the alligator eats the larger thing):
     
    Bears > Humans > Baby Bears (Cubs)
     
    Cardinals are birds. We covered birds earlier. Cardinals are a family of birds, much like Orioles. So, if we had just a three-team bird baseball league, I would say the Cardinals would be heavy favorites to make the playoffs, along with the Orioles. However, trying to determine which bird team would win in a game between the two is something science is simply not ready to address. Luckily, we don't have to worry about it. Remember Randy Johnson. Get it tattooed on your hand.
     
    Now, Red is a color. Reds are a color? Under the guise of rule #3, I have decided that the Reds will be Communists. We all know that Fidel Castro was a noted baseball-playing communist. I haven't heard of others like him and most of the former Soviet countries are not known for baseball. Therefore, I think this would be a rather weak team. They are humans though, and thus would be better than birds and baby bears by this corollary: Bears > Humans > Baby Bears (Cubs).
     
    Projected Division finish:
    Brewers
    Reds
    Pirates
    Cubs
    Cardinals
     
    NL West
     
    Giants are huge. By definition, this is a fact. Is simply being huge enough to win a baseball game? I'm not sure it is, but it certainly does not hurt. The reality is that while Giants are notoriously slow, their steps are notoriously large. Base-stealing will be nearly a cinch, as the Giants would simply take a step and be at the next base. One flaw for Giants: Giant strike-zones. Think of how easy it would be to get a fastball by them. A ruling would need to be made on whether or not their bats would be proportional to their size or if they would be forced to use comically small human-sized bats.
     
    Dodgers would be good at base stealing. See, the Dodgers were named after the people of Brooklyn, who were referred to as Trolley Dodgers, due to the network of Trolleys in Brooklyn around late 1890s. Teams were poorly named in those days. Since they are good at dodging Trolleys, I guess they'd be fast. Or something. At least they would be humans. Humans seem to have a distinct advantage in this league, especially when facing birds or socks.
     
    Diamondbacks are terrifying. They are rattlesnakes, for the non-snake peeps. Rattlesnakes are terrifying. They are poisonous too. However, if the other team had any of those long, thin, curved rods that can hold a snake head up, they would probably have a huge advantage. If the snakes could guard the bases, they might be able to deter other teams from running the bases. However, baseball players wear cleats and run fast. There would be many dead snakes and that is just not cool.
     
    Rockies are mountains. Mountains don't move very fast. In addition, they are prone to erosion. While a mountain may be able to get on base, I don't think they would ever score. In fact, I bet they'd get picked off a lot. However, I bet they would have a lot of range! HAHAHAHAHAHAAHAHAHAHA!
     
    I would think the Padres would be very nice. The name comes from the Spanish friars that founded the city of San Diego. Anyone who takes the time to found a whole city is pretty cool. However, they passed away long ago. Now we're getting into whether ghosts should be allowed to play baseball. Personally, I don't discriminate. However, I'm not sure if ghosts can hold things, and holding stuff is important in baseball.
     
    Projected Division finish:
    Giants
    Dodgers*
    Padres
    Diamondbacks
    Rockies
     
    *Wild card winner
     
    NL East
     
    The Braves. We addressed this earlier. According to Wikipedia, a Brave is a Native American Warrior. I think warriors would be great at baseball. They have to be fast, strong, brave and smart. This particular division is swimming with humans, so it will be harder to win. Warriors are impressive humans though. We may be on to something.
     
    Nationals are peoples of a nation. Since this nation is the United States, that means that every baseball player in the United States would be eligible to play for the Nationals. This team would be loaded. It would be an all-star team. Some might think they would be unstoppable. We'll see, I suppose.
     
    Mets are city-folk. They are metropolitan. They go to museums, theatre and then eat fancy foods. They walk places. They take public transportation. They rent bikes. All the metropolitan folk could make up a great baseball team. However, anyone who is a metropolitan in the U.S. would also be able to play for the Nationals. This could end up being the biggest decision they ever make!
     
    Phillies are people from Philly, not horses. You are thinking of fillies. Horses would have no chance, but people from Philly might be ok. Mark Gubicza and Roy Campanella are from Philly and they were good. It stands to reason that the Phillies could field a decent team. However, Philly is also a Metro area. It is also in the U.S. This segmenting is just too much for my tastes. Until the Phillies branch out, they will struggle to compete in this division.
     
    So, logically: People of the US > Native Americans in the US > People just in U.S. Metro Areas > People from Philly (the alligator simply eats the larger sample size, this is not a commentary on these people)
     
    Marlins are fish. All types of people catch fish and then eat them. This does not bode well for the Marlins' chances. If they could somehow harness their sliminess, they might have something. I'm not sure it would be enough. They do have that giant, sharp horn thing and some are bigger than some humans. Their biggest weakness might be their complete lack of arms. Arms hold stuff, and if we can learn nothing else from this exercise, it would be that holding stuff wins baseball games.
     
    Projected Division finish:
    Nationals
    Braves*
    Mets
    Phillies
    Marlins
     
    *Wild card winner
     
    In the near future, we will play out these playoffs and determine a champion. Or, we won't. I don't think anyone will be losing sleep over it. Except me.
  4. Brad Swanson
    Hey everyone! I took a look at what each of the 4 other teams in the AL Central were up to this off-season. Once completed, the 4 previews consisted of a lot of words. Really, too many words. Therefore, I split each one up and posted them individually at my blog, Kevin Slowey was Framed!. I thought I would just provide links to each of the 4 previews here, for any who are interested. I swear this was not a ploy to get more pageviews, it was a simple ploy to continue to be lazy even though it is just copy and pasting. I really want to go take a nap.
     
    Anyway, here they are, in order of how I think they will finish. I'm leaving the Twins out due to sadness. Please don't be turned off by the first sentence in each preview. I don't really talk like that. K, brahs? Thx.
     
    Detroit Tigers
     
    Kansas City Royals
     
    Chicago White Sox
     
    Cleveland Indians
  6. Brad Swanson
    I am a teacher by trade. I am a teacher period. One of the most important parts of teaching is giving quality feedback. Students need to understand what mistakes they are making and how they can fix them. It is equally important to provide good feedback to students when they do something well. Without feedback, students have a hard time understanding whether or not they met expectations.
     
    Grades are given because they are fairly universal. Most people know what an A or an F is. Although, a letter by itself is not effective either. Combining a letter grade with good feedback can help a student understand where they are successful and what they need to work toward. The Twins are a work-in-progress. They need reinforcement for what they are doing well and they need instruction on what they can do better. Who better to give them this feedback than some random Middle School Social Studies teacher with just enough free time to write about the Twins a couple times per week?
     
    Can someone mail this report card to the proper place for me?
    Language Arts
    Teacher Feedback:
    The Twins have shown both increased creativity and decreased creativity during the same period of time. Signing a player like Ryan Doumit shows that the Twins are willing to think outside of the backup catcher box. Doumit is versatile enough to play outfield and has enough pop in his bat to DH. Having a player like Drew Butera on the roster as a 3rd catcher shows that the Twins still value that backup catcher role.
     
    I'd like to see the Twins think creatively more frequently going forward. Creating some platoons might be a good avenue, rather than employing a bench with mostly utility players.
    Grade - C
    Statistics and Probability
    Teacher Feedback:
    The Twins seem to be a lot less interested in the statistics part and much more interested in the probability part of this equation. I will say, the Twins seem to be more interested in some of the new ways of statistical thinking, as they seem to be trying to add on-base type players to their lineup (Willingham, Doumit, Carroll, etc) instead of simply looking for guys with high batting averages. I would like to see the Twins continue in this way, over the next offseason. My comment about probability refers to the fact that the Twins seem to think it is good enough to have a 1 in 5 chance of winning a poor Division, rather than trying to build a team that can win a World Series.
     
    I would like to see the Twins continue to build a statistically balanced team. In addition, I would like to see the Twins break the American League Central
    Probability conundrum.
    Grade - C+
    Chemistry
    Teacher Feedback:
    I don't see any specific issues with Chemistry on this team. It seems that the manager is well-liked by his players and there doesn't seem to be a particular player that rubs his teammates the wrong way. Even through two consecutive long, losing seasons, the team does play hard. They were trying all the way until the very end, which is commendable. Hopefully this team will be given a chance to show how their chemistry works in more pressure situations going forward.
     
    I imagine that there are some players who assume the role of team leaders within the clubhouse. Since I was not invited to the clubhouse, I cannot comment on that area of chemistry.
    Grade - B
    Economics
    Teacher Feedback:
    Some of the issues the Twins had with economics this year were beyond their control. The team was terrible for the second straight year, which really hurts attendance. Lower attendance means less revenue. Less revenue means a lower payroll. However, the Twins must remember that lowering a payroll for another season will be a major turnoff to the fans. The demand might go down. They can't build another ballpark, so the Twins have to stay creative with their economics.
     
    My advice would be to spend the money. Forget about the lower revenue and put money toward the big-league club. A temporary loss of revenue can be made up with future revenue, if the team becomes competitive again. Spend as though the team will be good again. Get the fans energized and keep the demand high. The 2012 Twins were better than the 2011 Twins, but you wouldn't know it from the stands.
     
    Invest in pitching. There aren't going to be off-seasons with the quality of starting pitching available very often. Take advantage of your opportunities, Twins.
    Grade - D+
    Health
    Teacher Feedback:
    The offense stayed mostly healthy. The pitching was mostly unhealthy. The medical staff was much maligned. I am not going to go through the litany of odd injuries with inaccurate recovery times. Needless to say, this part of Health was not a success. The Twins need to make sure that injuries are diagnosed properly, by their experts. Don't rely on players to be honest about their injuries. Players gon play.
     
    The Twins have not been fully healthy for 2 straight years. I will be very interested to see what a healthy 2013 can bring.
    Grade - D
    Anthropology
    Teacher Feedback:
    The Twins do not seem to have a good handle on the evolution of the game of baseball. They seem to be stuck in an era where "pitching to contact" and "doing the little things" were King. Those things are all well and good, but have not lead to a bit of playoff success for this team. The Twins' bench often consists of players who are just flat out terrible or have but one skill. This works on a good team, but not on a bad team.
     
    Perhaps the Twins should look to Oakland and their model of using their bench to create platoons. Instead of having a 3rd catcher, why not sign a lefty who can play 3rd base and let him split time with Trevor Plouffe? Maybe they could find an infielder who can hit for some power? Your middle infielders don't all have to be slap hitters with zero power. Paying close attention to how the game is evolving is key. I am not sure the Twins are doing that.
     
    I won't harp on the lack of power pitching. That is much harder to find than we give credit for. However, the offense needs to evolve to make the bench more efficient and a part of the team that can contribute.
    Grade: Incomplete
    Architectural Design
    Teacher Feedback:
    Target Field is a wonderful place. No one can take that away. The field is beautiful the concourse is easy to navigate. The seats are pointed in the proper direction and there seems to be no bad seat in the house. I have nothing bad to say about Architectural Design.
     
    However, Twins, don't rest on this building's charm. The charm will wear off eventually. Pretty soon, everyone will have been there, and done that. When that happens, the team better be watchable. I can sit outside just about anywhere, so that novelty isn't going to cut it forever. Make sure that the product on the field is equal to the product that is the field.
    Grade - A
    What grades would you give the Twins?
  7. Brad Swanson
    Shane Mack was my little brother's favorite player. It was perfect because Kirby Puckett was my favorite and Mack was almost like the little brother to Puckett. Well, maybe that isn't perfection, but it is poetic if nothing else. Regardless, in most cases, there comes a time when the little brother "catches up" to the big brother. They start to be more competitive in head to head sporting events, they get taller/bigger and they get more confidence. Often, you can tell who grew up with big brothers, as they tend to be surprisingly athletic, due to competing against older kids as they grow up.
     
    By 1992, you could make the argument that Shane Mack was just as good a baseball player as Kirby Puckett. Some will scoff at that sentence and shut their laptops too strongly, breaking the escape key. Some will immediately run to baseballreference.com to see if I am crazy.
     
    Are you back?
     
    I'm not crazy, right? Here is a chart for those who are too lazy to hit ctrl+t and then type in baseballreference.com, search Shane Mack, then hit ctrl+t, type in baseballreference.com, search Kirby Puckett, then open Microsoft Excel, create a chart with some stats, then move Google Chrome to one side of your screen, move Excel to the other, then start filling in the chart:
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 583]


    1992
    Age
    G
    AB
    H
    R
    HR
    RBI
    SB
    TB
    AVG
    OBP
    OPS+
    WAR


    Shane Mack
    28
    156
    692
    189
    101
    16
    75
    26
    280
    .315
    .394
    139
    6.3


    Kirby Puckett
    32
    160
    696
    210
    104
    19
    110
    17
    313
    .329
    .374
    139
    6.8
    [/TABLE]
     
    1992 was a freaking great season for the Twins left and center fielders. Mack was every bit as good as Puckett. He was probably a better outfielder by this time, but you can't just move Kirby Puckett off of center. Mack got on base at a higher rate, stole more bases and was 4 years younger. Kirby Puckett was 2nd in MVP voting that year; Mack didn't receive a single vote. Mack was the younger brother after all. George Bell received some votes that year. Go look at his stats if you want to get a good laugh. Puckett was robbed that year and should have been the MVP of the league. Dennis Eckersley won, and he looks like Gallagher.
     
    MVP arguments aside, this was the second consecutive monster season for Shane Mack. He was only going to be 29 years old in 1993 and the Twins were coming off of two straight excellent seasons. Unfortunately, things did not play out as one would have expected in 1993. Mack didn't play as many games, didn't steal many bases, didn't add any power and was just generally less exciting. 1994 was better statistically, but he only played 81 games that year. He did hit 15 home runs and post a 147 OPS+ that year, but that means a lot less over the course of a half season. Although, it wasn't like he was injured the whole time, as most of that season was lost to a Player's strike.
     
    Then, Mack signed a monster deal to play in Japan. I was only 12 and my family didn't get the newspaper. We didn't have time, what with all the TV we had to watch, so I have no idea why he signed in Japan. Now, I know it was a pretty big contract and there was some speculation that the strike could last for a long time. By the time he returned to the U.S. , he was older and not really a full-time player. He also was not a Twin, so I didn't care.
     
    Mack's 1992 is very interesting to me. The MVP vote shows that he was not a player that was strongly appreciated nationally. He had just played for a World Series championship team and was one of the better players on that team. He had a great balanced game, with power, speed and defense. He is the type of player that would likely have been more appreciated now, with advanced statistics and metrics being more mainstream. He played in the shadow of one of the greatest Twins of all time, but by 1992, he seemed to be reaching his equal.
     
    I can't really remember if Shane Mack was appreciated in 1992. I was 10. My brother doesn't remember either. He was 7. I am sure there were some fans that appreciated him. My brother did, although neither of us can remember why. I do know that if anyone wants a fairly large volume of Shane Mack baseball cards, I can give you my brother's number.
  8. Brad Swanson
    2007 was a rare poor season for the Twins in the first decade of the 21st Century. They finished under .500 and in 3rd place. A long-time Minnesota Twin was heading for free agency after the season as well. Torii Hunter was likely the fourth or fifth best player on the team at this point, behind Joe Mauer, Justin Morneau, Johan Santana and possibly Joe Nathan (I think Hunter was better). In addition, he was 31 years old and slipping defensively from a great centerfielder to an aging centerfielder who probably would benefit from a change to right field. I know that I was personally against signing Hunter to a long-term deal, but Hunter obviously wanted to cash in on what had been a good career to this point.
     
    I remember hearing that the Twins offered 3 years and 45 million dollars. I thought that was too high, but the years were not offensive to me. I tried calling Terry Ryan, but realized quickly that I didn't have his number, and that he doesn't care what I think. It was all irrelevant anyway, as Anaheim and Hunter agreed to terms on a 5 year, 90 million (actually 89.5) dollar contract on November 21, 2007. I found this to be laughable, and I was more than relieved that the Twins did not offer anything close to that.
     
    I thought that Hunter might do well for the first 2 or 3 years of that deal, and then completely fall off the table as a 35 and 36 year old. Knowing that his defense was slipping a bit, moving him to right field might have made some sense for the Twins. So, I wanted to see how he did against Twin center and right fielders. The results? Well, let's just see, shall we? I took the liberty of making some charts; I hope you don't mind.
    Chart 1 - Torii Hunter's WAR, compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years.
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 341]


    WAR
    Hunter
    Twins CF
    [/TD]
    Twins RF



    2008
    2.6
    Gomez
    2.6
    Span
    3.2


    2009
    3.9
    Span
    4.1
    Cuddyer
    2.8


    2010
    3.7
    Span
    2.6
    Kubel/Cuddyer
    0.4


    2011
    2.6
    Span/Revere
    4.2
    Cuddyer
    3


    2012
    4.4
    Span
    3.5
    Revere
    2.7


    Total
    17.2

    17
    [TD]12.1

    [/TABLE]
     
    As you can see, Hunter was more valuable (by Fangraphs' WAR) than either Twins' center or right fielders. Although, it was very close in center field. If nothing else, this chart makes me appreciate just how good and underrated Denard Span is. Hunter has been really consistent over the 5 year deal and definitely exceeded my expectations.
    Chart 2 - Torii Hunter's Salary (in million dollas), compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years.

    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 280]


    Dollas (in mils)
    Hunter
    Twins CF
    Twins RF


    2008
    16.5
    0.4
    0.4


    2009
    18
    0.4
    7.66


    2010
    18.5
    0.75
    13.516


    2011
    18.5
    1.4
    10.5


    2012
    18
    3
    0.5


    Total
    89.5
    5.95
    32.576
    [/TABLE]
     
    I chose dollas over dollars, because I am currently wearing my trucker cap tilted slightly to the side. As is clearly seen, Hunter has been significantly more expensive than these two Twins outfield positions combined. The center field situation is almost a laughable comparison. So, let's take this one step further.
    Chart 3 - Torii Hunters WAR/Million Dolla, compared with Twins' center and right fielders over the past 5 years.
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 263]


    WAR/Dolla
    Hunter
    Twins CF
    Twins RF


    2008
    0.16
    6.50
    8.00


    2009
    0.22
    10.25
    0.37


    2010
    0.20
    3.47
    0.03


    2011
    0.14
    3.00
    0.29


    2012
    0.24
    1.17
    5.40


    Total
    0.96
    24.38
    14.08
    [/TABLE]
     
    I'm still using dolla instead of dollar, although my trucker cap did fall off. I am still wearing my favorite shirt. This is a rather crude measurement, I admit. However it does show that the Twins got comparable production from these positions and at a much lower price. Over the 5 years Torii Hunter was worth 17.2 WAR. Over that same time, Denard Span was worth 15.6 WAR. He also make approximately 200 billion dollars less (I don't feel like checking my math).
     
    Chart 4 - Torii Hunter statistics over the past 5 years
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 479]


    Hunter Totals
    2008
    2009
    2010
    2011
    2012
    5 Year Total
    5 Year Avg


    Games
    146
    119
    152
    156
    130
    703
    140.6


    HR
    21
    22
    23
    23
    15
    104
    20.8


    RBI
    85
    74
    76
    80
    74
    389
    77.8


    SB
    19
    18
    9
    5
    9
    60
    12


    OPS
    0.810
    0.873
    0.819
    0.765
    0.802
    0.814
    0.814


    WAR
    2.6
    3.9
    3.7
    2.6
    4.4
    17.2
    3.4
    [/TABLE]
     
    If you had shown me this chart in 2007, I would have said two things: 1. What is WAR? 2. Wow, that honestly surprises me. Over the last 5 years, Torii Hunter has been a good player. He has been about a 3 and a half win player and has produced good counting stats. He also seems like a really good guy and someone that the Angels like having around. My charts did not measure things like clubhouse chemistry, ballpark factors of anything like that. I am sure there are ways to make the Twins' decision to let Hunter leave look bad. As much as I have grown to appreciate Hunter over the years, I am glad he left. Denard Span has really flourished in his absence and has become an overall more valuable player than Hunter (when you consider salary and age). In addition, he also seems like a good guy. The good guy stuff balances out!
    Were you sad or glad when Torii Hunter left? Were you mad? Did you feel you'd been had? Don't feel bad. Love, Brad.
  9. Brad Swanson
    The Twins suck. Sorry, had to be said. I do consider myself a bit of a shock-jock, so this is fitting. However, the reward for sucky teams is a good draft pick. I was talking with a friend of mine and he said, "who cares about the draft, it's a total crapshoot." This got me wondering; is the draft a crapshoot?
     
    Yeah, probably.
     
    However, is the MLB draft more of a crapshoot than the other 3 major sports' drafts? I did some research to see if any one league has a more crapshooty (crapshootish?) draft than any of the other sports.
     
    I wasn't able to do any super extensive research, as I do have a pretty awesome social life to maintain (Netflix, Dog Walks, Couch, etc.). As a result, I looked at a 10 year sample of MLB, NFL, NHL and NBA drafts. I looked from 1981 to 1990, so that most players would be done with their careers. I am going to spit this up a bit, to give me time to do my shoddy research properly.
     
    I will investigate 3 different factors:
     
    · What is the percentage of 1st round picks that made an All-Star team?
    · How does the average career length of Top 10 picks compare to the average career length of a player in that league?
    · Where do MVPs come from?
     
    While these are obviously not perfect measures, I feel they give some sort of data to look at and then analyze. Some might accuse me of cherry-picking, but I could give one rat's behind about that. This isn't a research journal, last time I checked.
     
    So, here are the results:
    Question 1 - What is the percentage of 1st round picks that made an All-Star team?
     
    This was the easy one to figure out. I just looked at draft results, all-star appearances and did some simple division. Full disclosure: Excel did the division for me. Here is a chart of the results:
    Chart 1 - Percentage of 1st Round Picks that became All-Stars from 1981 to 1990.
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 219]


    MLB
    Total


    # of 1st Round All Stars
    52


    # of 1st Round Picks
    269


    % of 1st Round All Stars
    19.33%


    NFL
    Total


    # of All Stars
    118


    # of 1st Round Picks
    275


    % of 1st Round All Stars
    42.91%


    NBA
    Total


    # of All Stars
    61


    # of 1st Round Picks
    244


    % of 1st Round All Stars
    25.00%


    NHL
    Total


    # of All Stars
    46


    # of 1st Round Picks
    189


    % of 1st Round All Stars
    24.34%
    [/TABLE]
     
    Well, obviously this is a flawed design. This is true for a couple of reasons. Not all drafts have the same amount of rounds. Not all leagues had the same amount of teams. Not all leagues have the same rules for player eligibility. Not all all-stars are created equal. Draft strategies could be evolving and changing since the '80s. However, in a perfect world, the first round would produce the most talent, regardless of these differences.
     
    It does appear that in this decade, it was more difficult to find an All-Star in the MLB draft first round than in any of the 3 other leagues first rounds. There doesn't seem to be any trend data throughout the years as the percentage was pretty stable from '81 to '90. Over 40% of first round picks in the NFL became All-Stars. The number is under 20% for MLB, the lowest of the 4 leagues. Obviously, I am using the terms All-Star and Pro-Bowler interchangeably.
     
    The total number of All-Stars from the 1st round are pretty comparable when you compare MLB and NHL. However, there were fewer players drafted in the 1st rounds overall in the NHL. So, the 1st round of the MLB draft is a bit of a crapshoot, especially when compared with other leagues. However, does this mean that the top end of the draft is a crapshoot? If not, it might point toward teams being even more likely to try to get the top end picks. Here is another chart:
    Chart 2 - Number of Top Ten Picks that became All-Stars between 1981-1990.
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 231]


    MLB
    Total


    # of Top Ten Pick All Stars
    30


    NFL
    Total


    # of Top Ten Pick All Stars
    54


    NBA
    Total


    # of Top Ten Pick All Stars
    35


    NHL
    Total


    # of Top Ten Pick All Stars
    43
    [/TABLE]
     
    Since there were a total of 10 Top Ten picks in each draft, the total number for the decade would be 100. So, all these numbers are equal to the percentages as well. Therefore, we can see that Top Ten picks are easily more likely to become All-Stars than just 1st round picks. That makes sense as the top ten should be the real cream of the crop. However, the gap between leagues widens slightly between the MLB and NFL, significantly between the MLB and NHL, and narrows between the MLB and NBA. When you consider that far fewer NBA All-Stars are named each year, the narrowing seems less significant. 70% of MLB top ten picks failed to become All-Stars. When you think of it that way, it is a bit worrisome for teams looking for All-Star players.
     
    My main problem with this data is that the MLB draft is just so much longer than other drafts. The player pool is so much larger. The top ten of 1500 players is a much smaller percentage than the top ten of 250 players. So, I thought it might be interesting to look at a percentage-based player pool.
     
    Here is another chart:
    Chart 3 - Number of Players selected in the Top 5% of Drafts that became All-Stars between 1981-1990.
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 199]


    MLB
    Total


    # of Top 5% All-Stars
    72


    NFL
    Total


    # of Top 5% All-Stars
    78


    NBA
    Total


    # of Top 5% All-Stars
    32


    NHL
    Total


    # of Top 5% All-Stars
    47
    [/TABLE]
     
    Just for explanation sake, I took the total number of players drafted, multiplied by 5% and then counted the number of All-Stars taken within those pick values.
     
    Ah, perhaps a point in the MLB's favor! When you look at all players selected in the top 5% of these drafts, the number of MLB All-Stars is much higher than the NBA and NHL and right in line with the NFL. Maybe this simply means that we have to consider the size of the player pool, in order to see that the MLB draft is not a crapshoot. Well, maybe not. Here is another chart:
    Chart 4 - Percentage of Players selected in the Top 5% of Drafts that became All-Stars between 1981-1990.
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 559]


    [/TD][TD]# of Top 5% Picks

    # of Top 5% All-Stars
    % of Top 5% Picks All-Stars


    MLB
    538
    72
    13.38%


    NFL
    167
    78
    46.71%


    NBA
    79
    32
    40.51%


    NHL
    123
    47
    38.21%
    [/TABLE]
     
    Giving you all the data is quite important, eh? Now MLB doesn't look so great. When you look at the top 5% of any NFL, NHL, or NBA draft, there is close to or more than a 40% chance that a team will get an All-Star. In the MLB, that number is under 15%. Yikes.
     
    According to this data, if you wanted to draft an All-Star in the 80s, you should have been a terrible team the year before and had a top ten pick. Even then, you were going to fail to get an All-Star 70% of the time. Once you leave the Top Ten, the numbers are pretty awful. There were only 22 players drafted in the first round, but outside the Top Ten from 1981 to 1990 that became an All-Star, only about 2 players per year. It appears that the MLB draft is a bit of a crapshoot, and much more of a crapshoot than any of the other leagues.
     
    This does not surprise me though. Well, one part does. The NHL seems like it should have had numbers more in line with MLB. After all, their player pool seems to be the most similar, with high school players and young foreign players making up a lot of their first rounds. I guess the one explanation would be the glut of Club and Junior Level teams that younger players could play for. These types of teams produce a higher level of competition than simply high school teams that future MLB draftees would play for. If I had no life whatsoever, I might investigate High School vs. College, but that seems like a huge undertaking.
     
    To me, the MLB draft is more about upside than the others, especially in the very early picks. NFL and NBA teams have the benefit of watching their players in college. The NHL teams can see how players fare in either Junior, Club or College hockey. These leagues can have a pretty good idea of what type of player they are getting. MLB is often relying on high school leagues, which would seem to have the most volatility. The MLB draft lacks certainty, almost by its design and structure. However, I am 100% certain that no team would ever want to create a system where high school players are not drafted, so the uncertainty is here to stay.
     
    I wish that I could travel ten years in the future to do this same exercise with the 1991 to 2000 drafts, but many players (especially in the later years) are still active and the data points for All-Star appearances could change over the next few years. Someone please remind me in 2022 that I have work to do.
     
    You can see the full charts here, with each year shown individually:
     
    Data
    Please feel free to question my methods and criticize my lack of devotion to the Scientific Method. Part 2 will investigate career lengths in the Top Tens of these drafts.
  10. Brad Swanson
    In July of 2010, the Texas Rangers traded a prospect package highlighted by Justin Smoak for Seattle Mariners ace Cliff Lee. The trade helped propel an already talented Rangers team to the World Series in 2010. In the Winter of 2010, Lee surprised everyone by signing a multi-year contract with the Philadelphia Phillies, spurning a reportedly larger offer from the New York Yankees. Ok, so what? What does this have to do with our beloved Minnesota Twins?
     
    Well, the Twins were reportedly in on Cliff Lee during the summer of 2010. No one really knows for sure, but it sounds like the prospect package would have centered around Kyle Gibson and Aaron Hicks, with some lower level prospects potentially added to sweeten the deal. I remember being very confident that Twins would make this happen. I thought those prospects were extremely attractive. The Twins were coming off a decade of relative success, but were languishing through a pretty difficult first half. Cliff Lee could have changed everything, but it didn't come to fruition.
     
    Without Lee, the Twins surged in the second half of 2010. They instead decided to bolster the bullpen by trading for Matt Capps and Brian Fuentes. Their strong second half brought them home field advantage in the divisional series against the Wild Card winner New York Yankees. In Game 1, Francisco Liriano pitched well through 5 innings, fell apart in the 6th and then watched a seesaw game that ended with a Yankee win. The Yankees then won the next two games, started by Carl Pavano and Brian Duensing. The Twins had been swept by the Yankees once more.
     
    The question is, would Lee have helped? I'm not so sure. The Twins didn't hit in that series, other than game 1. Perhaps winning game 1 behind Lee (who was brilliant in the first two rounds of the 2010 playoffs) would have allowed the Twins to find their bats in Game 4 and have Lee ready for Game 5 at Target Field. That alternative reality might exist, but it is also entirely possible that the bats stayed dormant in Game 4 and the series ends anyway.
     
    From this point, it is impossible to know how things would have been different. Texas may not have beat Tampa Bay in the other first round series without Lee. Or, Texas may have traded for a different stud pitcher and still won. It is impossible to know. Lee would have helped the Twins to a Game 1 and Game 5 advantage, but would Liriano, Pavano and/or Duensing have been favored in any of the other games. Well, it is hard to know considering we cannot even know which team the Twins would have met. Texas had a better offense than the Twins and Tampa had a better rotation, even with Lee. It is very likely the Twins would have lost in the ALCS, even if they beat the Yankees in the ALDS.
     
    Odds are, Lee walks after the 2010 season. The Twins would have gotten a draft pick (number 33 to be exact) and would not have had some of their top prospects. Knowing what we know about Kyle Gibson now, that impact might not have been felt as immediately. Hicks floundered in 2011 but has bounced back in 2012. Gibson looks like he could be in the rotation by the end of 2013.
    Who knows which low level prospects would have been included.
     
    So, I guess my question is, would it have been worth winning that 2010 ALDS and having a chance to get to the World Series, for what looks like a future number 3 or 4 starter and an outfielder with exciting upside? I would personally take that trade-off every time, as I tend to subscribe to the "World Series or bust" philosophy. I can see the argument on the other side though. The Twins need pieces to rebuild after two terrible seasons. However, I don't think anyone would have thought in 2010 that things would fall apart so spectacularly.
     
    Would Seattle have even been interested in the Twins' package? Justin Smoak was a better prospect, at that time, than pretty much anyone the Twins had in their system. He projected as a switch hitter with a swing that would produce power and average. He also was graded as a good defensive first baseman. That sounds like Mark Teixeira to me. Gibson was considered a future MLB starter, but nowhere near that level. Odds are, the Twins were never really that close to acquiring Lee.
     
    Ok, in a field of uncertainty, one thing is certain: Trading for Cliff Lee would have been a ton of fun. The 2010 Twins had a great second half and ended up hosting a playoff series. With Lee, the team would have been even better. In addition, Lee was so locked in that year that every game would have been an event. The excitement leading into the playoffs would have been even greater and when Lee took the mound for Game 1, there would have been an extreme sense of confidence at Target Field. It is impossible to know how that series would have turned out differently, but the psychological impact with Lee on the mound could have been enough to turn the tides. We will never know for sure, but it is one of the more interesting What ifs in Twins history.
  11. Brad Swanson
    I decided that I could predict the playoffs just like everyone else in the World. Or, I could ask my wife Liz, what she thinks. Liz knows a lot about baseball, way more than most. She also has a lot of crazy ideas and a bit of attention-deficit disorder. She is self-proclaimed to be "eccentric." Anyway, I decided to get her opinion on the series and write her thoughts. She gets off topic in an extremely effective manner and some of her thoughts are often completely unrelated to anything that is asked. That being said, she does know a lot about baseball. Trust me. It doesn't always come through in print. She knows less about answering my questions properly.
     
    So, basically, from here on out, these are her thoughts. My own predictions and notes will be in bold, with no analysis, as I have no fun opinions.
     
    AL first.
    Wild Card Game - Baltimore v. Texas
     
    Can I just say, it's really cool that the As made the playoffs, with their $52 million dollar roster. Baseball is the only sport that would work in. Its Moneyball style.
    Texas
     
    Snake. I liked all the cool gestures they made last year. Let's hope Hamilton doesn't get in trouble again and/or caught with 'roids. (Note: Liz thinks everyone is on roids) My prediction: Texas
    ALDS - New York v. Texas
    New York
     
    Hmm, that's a tough one. I'm gonna go Yanks. I'm not too happy about it though. After the playoffs last year, I had a real loyalty for Texas, who knew? Yanks have deep pockets and they are cocky. They have Jeets and ARod. My prediction: Texas
    ALDS - Oakland v. Detroit
    Detroit
     
    Who cares? I guess Detroit, right? Fielder. Cabrera. Two fatties equals two good hitters. Detroit needs something, right? They lost LeBron, who got caught with a bunch of drugs or something. (Note: What?!? She doesn't know much about basketball.) My prediction: Detroit
    ALCS - New York v Detroit
    Detroit
     
    Let's go Detroit. The Yankees are kind of over. They need some fresh blood. They kind of lost the pizzazz. People aren't feeling them, myself include. Although, I did like Robinson Cano, but I haven't heard anything about him since the hitting competition (Note: Huh?). Ah, the Home-Run Derby, the lameness. Why Detroit? Two fatties - see above. Don't they have a Yank? Whatshisname? I can see him... Older, dark hair. Seriously? (Note: No clue). My prediction: Texas
     
    NL Next.
    Wild Card Game - Atlanta v St Louis
    Atlanta
     
    Ugh. I don't like either. I don't even know who plays on either team. Is Atlanta still the Braves? Isn't that not PC? (Note: I might have overstated her baseball knowledge). I seriously don't know. St. Louis lost McGwire and they lost the coach (Note: Tony LaRussa). Wait, McGwire doesn't play for them anymore? Who is their hitter? Hmm. I guess we'll go with the Braves. Seriously, who plays for St. Louis, or the Braves? My prediction: Atlanta
    NLDS - Washington v Altlanta
    Washington
     
    Washington, duh. Harper, did they hold Strasburg for the playoffs? I only know about that saga because I had him on my fantasy team (Note - She finished 3rd of 12). Did they end up saving him? (Note: No). Well, whateves. Let's hope Bryce Harper shoots his mouth off at the media again. That's a clown question, bro. My prediction: Washington
    NLDS - Cincinnati v San Francisco
    San Francisco
    (Note: Still trying to figure out that Yankee player. Not figuring it out, thinks she made it up). Giants. Do they still have that stoner? (Note: Lincecum?) Plus, my parents, you know. (Note: You don't know, but her parents live in Santa Cruz. Also, we have an update on the Yankee player - Matt Damon. Still getting there. Ok, its Johnny Damon). I'm too old-school to know these new players. I miss Damon and McGwire. I don't really care much about this one. My prediction: San Francisco
    NLCS - Washington v San Francisco
    Washington
     
    Washington. No hesitation. I'm not really that big in the Giants. Washington has a couple players I've heard of. I feel like they are getting a lot of buzz, I want to ride that wave. Harper seems kind of frat-boyish. (Note: He did not go to college). This would have been easier to talk about if hockey wasn't gone. I'm taking that very hard. Plus, football has all the buzz right now. Kluwe took his shirt off for a magazine, so there's that. Plus, Frank is pawing me. (Note: Our dog). My prediction: San Francisco
    World Series - Detroit v Washington
    Texas
     
    Throwing a curve-ball. I can't really see them winning 3 years in a row. Plus, as a first-born, I am all about fairness and Cabrera just won a bunch of stuff and shouldn't be allowed to win more. I don't feel super confident about Texas though. (Note: She is fully aware she picked against Texas earlier. She just thinks they will make it, despite her earlier picks. Nothing magical I believe, but just that they will win a series she thinks they won't. If that makes sense)
    (Note: While we were working on this, the news of the Twins' coaching staff changes came out)
     
    Whoa, the Twins fired all their coaches but one. Did they fire the fat pitching coach so I don't have to watch him go out to the mound? No, just the guy who stands at first and the guy at third. (Note: Bored with this, she now posted some stuff on Facebook)
     
    I really just like the Snake. We need to start a softball league again, so I can do all those moves. Ok, I thought we were getting some ice cream tonight. I usually just guess a team without much rationale behind it. Usually it comes down to the least fat players or coaches. That is the beauty of it. My prediction: Texas
    I'm very excited for these playoffs. I think having teams like Baltimore, Oakland and Washington makes the playoffs a lot more exciting. When teams come back to the playoffs after long absences, they really win my heart. I hope that one of those teams plays another of those teams in the World Series.
    I tend to think that San Francisco and Texas will meet in a rematch from 2010. I love San Francisco's pitching and I love the balance of Texas's team. I think this is the year Texas wins the whole thing. This seems odd, since they just collapsed to lose the division. However, that could be a wake-up call as well. I don't trust the Yankees against good pitching and I don't trust Detroit against a good offense. The National League teams are all pretty even. I'd like Washington a lot better with Strasburg.
    Anyway, I hope you enjoyed our analysis. This was meant to be fun, so my apologies to any player that was disparaged by Liz. If you are interested in her opinions, we are planning to start a blog with some undetermined topics and ideas. Just give me a call if you want the url.
    Who do you think will win "it all" this year?
  12. Brad Swanson

    Awardin'!

    By Brad Swanson,

    End of year awards are fun. That is really all they are, but they are fun. Fun is fun, and everyone knows that. Therefore, I thought it might be fun to share my Award Winners. Regardless, I will have fun. My 5th grade Gym teacher always said, "if you had fun, you won." So, I win. Fun = Won.
     
    We'll start with the most fun award and move down the list.
    NL Cy Young Award - R.A. Dickey
     
    He lead the league in Batters Faced. Need I say more?
     
    Yes? Ok. Well, this was super close for me. I thought Johnny Cueto and Clayton Kershaw were right there. According to BaseballReference.com, Clayton Kershaw is nicknamed "The Claw" and that almost convinced me to select him. However, I am trying to not let nicknames sway me, now that I am in my 30s. R.A. is a nickname as well. So...
     
    Dickey throws a cool pitch. If you know me well, and none of you do, you know that I love novelty. Kershaw is your prototypical left-handed, dominant pitcher. Cueto is an outstanding right-handed pitcher. Dickey was a Twin. When he was a Twin, he had some success. He also had a lot of failness. Failure. Now, he is inning eater. He also led the league in strikeouts and innings pitched. He had consecutive 1-hitters. The late-career emergence is impressive. With three candidates who have such similar resumes, I tend to vote for novelty and no one is more novel than R.A. Dickey, at least not this year.
    NL Rookie of the Year - Bryce Harper
     
    I think Bryce Harper hits 40 home runs next year. That is not why I am selecting him. He is 19. When I was 19, (insert story of immaturity and weak strength here). He hit 22 home runs and had an OPS+ of 119. I am told he had the greatest teenage season of all time. Beyond being a good hitter, he played great defense, as he received a lot of his surprising 5.0 bWAR from his defense. He gets criticism for doing hilarious things like blowing kisses and pointing bats, but really, isn't he everything people want in a player?
     
    He plays really hard. People tend to like that. Although, it seems like they like that less when it is a really talented player who is playing hard. When Nick Punto or Matt Tolbert makes that "I'm running as fast as I can" face, they get praise. Harper didn't seem to get his due gamer-cred. Perhaps he will in the future. For me, the combination of immense talent, hard work, and effortful effort, makes him a generational talent. I am looking forward to watching him for many, many years, hopefully never as a Yankee.
    NL MVP - Buster Posey
     
    This was an interesting race. You could make good, logical arguments for Posey, Yadier Molina, Ryan Braun, David Wright, and/or Andrew McCutchen. Braun's offensive numbers are very impressive, as are McCutchen's and Wright's. The latter two fell off a bit as the year went on. Braun got stronger. But, so did Posey. I swear that every time I turned the Giants on, Posey was driving in a run. I know that RBI are evil, but I can't shake that anecdotal evidence from my dome. Molina is just a fantastic catcher and is starting to be a better offensive player. With many things being equal, I think that being a catcher on a playoff team matters. Posey was just slightly better than Molina, so that would be my pick.
     
    Posey is like Joe Mauer 2.0. I know I wrote about this before, but it is just so true. If Mauer had power, he'd be Posey. In fact, if you combine their names, you get Pouer. Think about it. Posey is just outstanding, and has been since his extended debut in 2010. He hits for average, gets on base, hits for power and plays most of the games (some at first). Most of his value comes on offense, but he isn't a horrible catcher. That sounds a lot like Pouer to me. He also led the NL in WAR, so he must be selected by any sane person with a brain and access to decimals.
    AL Cy Young Award - Justin Verlander
     
    I just realized that I always add Award to the end of this award, but none of the others. Is that true of everyone? I choose Verlander because he is the best. See last night for proof. He also led the league in batters faced, strikeouts, innings pitched and then also threw in ERA+ for the pitching QUADRUPLE CROWN. I made that up. David Price is right there. He led the league in ERA and had 20 wins. I just think Verlander is better. If Price had thrown 25 more innings, I think his ERA would have been higher. I have no way to prove that, but I don't have to either.
     
    Verlander could win the next 4 Cy Young Awards and it would not surprise me a bit. He is a true workhorse and probably the best pitcher in baseball. He throws hard and has good control. There is a lot to like. The fact that he maintains and sometimes exceeds his early game velocity in later innings is impressive. He throws a lot of pitches and it doesn't seem to affect him. He seems like the type of pitcher that could be dominant for a long time.
    AL Rookie of the Year - Mike Trout
     
    I am kind of surprised that I haven't come across any articles that are arguing for someone else. You know, someone saying that Player X is actually the Rookie of the Year for such and such reasons. People love to do that kind of stuff just to poke bears. Wait a minute, I should do that!
    Actual AL Rookie of the Year - Yu Darvish
     
    Have you seen how many pitches this guy has? He has like 7, each cuts in and out. Therefore, if you take the number of pitches he has and multiple by the number of cuts, it is literally like he has 400 pitches. Ok, my heart isn't in this.
    Just Kidding, Actual Actual AL Rookie of the Year - Mike Trout
     
    Trout is just too obvious. He hit 30 HR, stole 49 bases, had an OBP around .400, and played a ridiculous center field. He led the league in WAR by a extremely large margin. He had one of the greatest rookie seasons of all time. It was like he was shot out of a cannon, but then just stayed in motion for 5 months. When he finally hit that fat guy in the stomach, he had amassed stats that are jaw-dropping and perhaps a little iconic?
    AL MVP - Mike Trout
     
    Miguel Cabrera won the Triple Crown. No one should even attempt to take that away from him. Anyone arguing that leading the league in those three categories doesn't mean anything, is just trying too hard. Cabrera was the most dominant offensive player this year. In fact, he is probably the best overall offensive player in the game right now. People tend to criticize him for his lack of base running and defense, but then ignore the fact that he is one of the best contact and power hitters, lumping those two things together to downplay his overall dominance.
     
    I read a lot of opinion pieces on the AL MVP race. Pretty much everyone picks a side and then states that their choice is the obvious choice. There is no obvious choice in this race. You can pick Cabrera, explain why and be either right or wrong. You can do the exact same thing with Trout. My point would be that base running and defense matter to me. You can't argue that Trout isn't a better base runner or a better defender. In addition, he plays a more difficult position. At the same time, you can't argue that Trout has more power than Cabrera. Cabrera's track record alone gives him the nod in overall hitting, although Trout is extremely close.
     
    A few arguments, I simply do not subscribe to. Cabrera agreeing to play third base does nothing for me. He could have just as easily agreed to DH, and their offense would have been just as good and their defense likely would have been better. He also does not get extra credit for mediocre play at a position, just because he wanted to. Trout is just naturally awesome in center, and I think that is a lot more impressive.
     
    The Tigers making the playoffs means nothing to me as well. The Angels had a better record, but played in the much better division. I wonder how well the Angels would have finished if they would have played Kansas City, Minnesota and Cleveland over 50 times. You can't say for sure, but it is enough of an argument to remove that factor from my decision. Also, the Angels won more games than the Tigers. I don't like that argument, but I get it.
     
    I don't get the "Trout didn't play in April" argument or the "Cabrera was awesome when games mattered" argument at all. Had Trout played more games, he likely would have accumulated more stats. While he should be slightly penalized for playing fewer games, that fact should even that part out. Cabrera was awesome in September, but Trout was awesome in June. Last time I looked, all those games count the same. I get the pressure of September, but I don't think that is enough to sway this decision.
     
    Ultimately, either choice makes at least some sense to me. I will not be upset, regardless of who wins. I might cry just a bit, but quickly recover. Likely just alligator tears. For me, Cabrera was the most impressive offensive player this year, with Trout trailing slightly behind. Since offense is not the only part of baseball that matters to me, his defense and base running push him past Cabrera. This does not mean that I don't value Triple Crown stats. This does not mean that I am not completely impressed with what Cabrera did this season. This does not mean that I think the Triple Crown is stupid and/or overrated. This does not mean that I think RBI is a terrible stat. This does not mean that I think WAR is the only important stat. This does not mean that Cabrera did not have a truly amazing and historic season. It just means that I think Trout's season was better. Sometimes, that is all there is to it.
  13. Brad Swanson
    This Twin of the Future is also a Twin of the past. Joe Benson was drafted in the 2nd round of the 2006 draft. He has tools. He has power, speed, an arm (yeah yeah, he has two, a good arm, smart guy), and he is a good fielder. The one tool he doesn't seem to have is the hit tool. Regardless, he showed enough in the Minors to earn a September call-up in 2011. He and 2006 first round pick Chris Parmelee were given some time that month. They were two completely different prospects. Parmelee was a 1st round pick who didn't really show much to get excited about. Benson was a 2nd round pick who flashed enough to be interesting. He was the 2010 Twins Minor League Player of the Year, after all. Well, Parmelee thrived that month and Benson floundered.
     
    Benson's 2012 was about as bad a year as a prospect can have. Benson was sent to AAA after Spring Training. Had he been successful, he may have earned some MLB time around June or July (maybe earlier, I have no idea). Instead, he went the absolute opposite direction. He was so awful that he was sent down to AA, where he had already played over 200 career games. Instead of dominating the league as I am sure the Twins had hoped, he was terrible there as well. Then, he got hurt. Then, he came back. He proved he could hit in Rookie and A ball, then resumed being disappointing in a level much too low for a player of his experience. Then, he got hurt. Specifically, he had knee surgery late in the season, will miss about 3-4 months, but should be ready for Spring Training in 2013.
     
    So, why even be excited about a guy who failed as a big leaguer (in an extremely small sample), then seemingly regressed as a minor league player, then got injured a whole bunch? Well, those tools are still there. At his peak, Benson has the ability to be a 20 HR, 20 SB type of player, with some upside from there. He is a good enough fielder to play all three outfield positions, as he has the range for center and the arm for right. That player has a ton of value. That player has statistics that don't look super exciting, but ends up with a 5.5 WAR. That player reminds me a lot of Shane Mack.
     
    Ok, all Mackness aside, as I am going to be writing about him soon. Benson reminds me of two current MLB players, depending on how things shake out. One is Jayson Werth and the other is Drew Stubbs. At his peak, Werth was a player with a 4 WAR, 20-20 HR/SB (sometimes more HR), and could play the outfield adequately. Benson is a better fielder. Stubbs had that same type of upside. He even flashed it in 2010, when he had 22 HR, 30 SB and played a decent center field. Stubbs has had issues with contact since that breakout year, with it all falling apart in 2012, to the tune of a 61 OPS+. Stubbs has major contact issues, and strikes out a ton. Werth only strikes out a lot.
     
    So, which one does Benson become? Maybe neither. However, if Benson can cut his strikeouts down, he can have a Werthwhile career. If not, he might be too Stubby to last. Wordplay! It really does seem that contact and strikeouts are the key. His power did disappear a bit last year, but that could have more to do with the injuries. Knee surgery also worry me a bit, as it could sap some of his speed. Diminished speed would make Benson a lot less exciting. If the tools he has always had are still present in 2013, he jumps right back to the top of Twins prospect lists for me. I can't quit those tools.
     
    He will be 25 (25!) when 2013 starts. 2013 is make or break time, and that might be an understatement. It is even too premature to label Benson a AAAA player, as he hasn't proved he can cut it in AAA. The outfield picture is only going to get more crowded, as Aaron Hicks and Oswaldo Arcia are likely ready for AAA themselves. Further down the line, there are even more talented outfielders to watch for. If Benson wants to have a career with Minnesota, he had better translate tools into performance, or he will be out of the Twins' plans.
     
    It is entirely possible that Benson seizes an opportunity and wins a spot with the Twins in 2013. Terry Ryan recently said that no one is untouchable on this team. The Twins could go completely loco and trade Josh Willingham and Denard Span this off-season, in their eternal quest for good starting pitching. If that happens, a corner spot would seem to be right there for the taking. Benson is certainly good enough with the glove to make that work.
     
    Will he hit enough? You can't steal first base, as they say. You also can't hit a home run while striking out. Or wait, can you? If so, that might be a sight to see. Unlikely. Anyway, Benson will have to make better contact and cut his strikeouts down. Some strikeouts are fine, but the 7:1 K to BB ratio he flashed in 2011 (in a small sample) will simply not work. Benson could be a late bloomer, or a player that simply needs a lot of at bats in a new league to adjust. If either of those scenarios are correct, the Twins should be patient. The payoff could be Werth it. I am so sorry.
  14. Brad Swanson
    Last night's Yankees-Orioles game got me thinking about the idea of the Closer Mentality and the Closer Role. I absolutely believe in the Closer Mentality. I consider myself a statistically inclined baseball fan. I understand that research shows that closer is just a word. A good reliever makes a good closer and whatnot. However, I don't believe the Closer Mentality is a myth. The idea that some people perform better or worse in specific situations makes perfect sense to me. Human Psychology, blah blah and so forth. I understand the concept of small samples and unfortunately, most failed closers have a small sample. Does that prove that Closer Mentality does not exist? No. But it certainly does not help prove that it does either. Regardless, I believe in it, even if I cannot quantify it. And I do that without regret.
     
    However, the Closer Role is something that I do not believe in. Last night, Jim Johnson was left in to face Raul Ibanez after he pinch hit for Alex Rodriguez. Brian Matusz was available and even pitched later. In fact, he gave up a home run to said Ibanez. Whatever. In a Bizarro World, point proved! Robinson Cano was due up in the 9th regardless of the pinch hitter. Brian Matusz had dominated left-handed batters. Had Cano come up with 2 outs (no Ibanez pinch hit), Johnson would have faced Cano because he has the Closer Role. However, Matusz would have been a better matchup for Cano.
     
    In that same scenario in the 8th inning, Matusz would have relieved someone like Darren O'Day (who might be a reliever just as talented as Johnson) and faced Ibanez and/or Cano. Why did the one inning matter? I guess I don't get it. It makes sense with someone like Mariano Rivera or someone like... well, maybe no one else. Why play the match-ups for 8 innings, then ignore them for the 9th? This isn't an original thought, but what do others think?
  15. Brad Swanson
    Miguel Sano steps into the box. He is just a huge man. The game is tied at 1 and the opposing pitcher is locked in, but Sano already has 3 hits, including a double that hit the top of the fence. The pitcher has been working him away, and Sano is taking what he is getting, driving all three hits to right-center. He really has become a good all-around hitter in this league. The pitcher deviates from the game plan for just one pitch, comes inside, and Sano absolutely launches it to the seats in left field. He just drilled his 11th home run in 30 games and raised his batting average over .350. Midway Stadium just can't contain him.
     
    When Miguel Sano was signed out of the Dominican Republic in 2009 he was only 16 years old. He was being pursued by more famous teams, but ultimately signed with the Minnesota Twins for just over 3 million dollars. He wasn't the giant man that he is today, but you could see the size and strength coming. He started at third base and showed that he could handle the position, but maybe not at a high level. He wasn't terrible though. Besides, his glove was not the tool that got him signed. His power looked like it could become legendary.
     
    By 2012, he was the number one prospect in the Twins system. He was already showing that great power. In 2012, he hit A ball and kept the power going, hitting 28 home runs. There were some signs that he was not a complete prospect though. He had some strikeout issues and was making a lot of errors at third base. Some thought that he might end up in the outfield, possibly first base, and maybe even DH. However, the kind of power he had was something that could not be ignored.
     
    2013 brought Sano to high A, where he didn't do anything to hurt his prospect standing. In 2014, Sano hit AA. He kept up that power to such a degree that he earned a surprising call-up to AAA in July. He struggled there, but it was also important to remember that he was only 21 years old, and in the Twins system, he moved about as quickly as any prospect can. By 2015, he was ready for a full year of AAA. By now, the hype machine was in full force. Twins fans had gotten used to losing over the past five years, and they were ready for something exciting.
     
    Now 22 years old, Sano would spend a full season at AAA, before earning a September call-up late in 2015. When he stepped into the batter's box, Twins fans serenaded him with applause, clearly ready for the next big thing to take his rightful place in Twins history. As if it were scripted, Sano launched the 3rd pitch he saw into the left field bleachers. As he rounded the bases, every fan was convinced they were watching the next Twins superstar.
     
    Struggles are very normal for young players. Sano was an early Rookie of the Year favorite in 2016. Instead, many of the issues that scouts were worried about early in his career started to surface. It became clear, early on, that he could not handle third base in the majors. He made 9 errors in April and was splitting time at 1B and DH by July. His power was still there. He finished the year with 21 home runs; definitely not a terrible for a 23 year old rookie. He also struck out 195 times and did not walk much at all. He ended with a sub .800 OPS and did not finish in the top five in Rookie of the Year voting.
     
    2017 and 2018 were very similar seasons. Sano showed great power, but little else. By 2018, he was a DH, and he didn't hit enough to play that position. By age 26, he was in danger of being released off the 40-man roster altogether. A brief power surge at the end of 2019 kept him in the Twins plans for at least one more year. When he didn't hit as a 27 year old, he didn't survive the offseason with the Twins, being traded for a AA pitcher that threw strikes. Sano bounced around to 3 different teams over the next two years, never even showing the power that made him an elite prospect. He simply could not make contact. When you add that to his lack of any sort of defense, he was no longer a major leaguer.
     
    Which brings us back to Midway Stadium. Baseball fans in Minnesota are finally enjoying Miguel Sano. He is killing the pitching in this independent league, and some are whispering that he might get a chance with an MLB club next Spring Training as a 32 year old. In many ways, he is a success. He has spent half of his life playing professional baseball. His prospect status helped him earn more money that he likely would have had he not played baseball. He might even get another shot in the majors. However, if you ask any Twins fan, they will more than likely call him a bust. The great hope that never materialized.
     
    Once considered the building block that would lead the Twins back to the top of the Central Division, Miguel Sano is now rounding the bases after a monster home run. There is a giant pig statue in the background and the PA guy announces every train that passes by. While only about 10 miles from Target Field, it has to feel like a million miles from Major League Baseball. This is often a reality in the prospect world. No one really knows what the future holds. For Miguel Sano, hopefully the power that he is showing in this rundown stadium will translate in Spring Training and help him back onto a Major League roster. Regardless, the lofty expectations that were never met, were unlikely to ever be met in the first place.
    This is the first part in a 4 part series. Don't be depressed, it gets better...
     
  16. Brad Swanson
    I have had the honor of watching the Detroit Tigers play 23 innings in about the last 24 hours. Wait, honor is the wrong word. What is the opposite of honor? The Tigers are brutal. I know their record is much, much, much better than the Twins' record, but they are brutal. They have 3 great starting pitchers: Verlander, Fister and Scherzer (who can be pretty hit or miss). They have three great hitters: Cabrera, Fielder, and Jackson. They have one player who is regularly in the lineup that provides good defense: Jackson. Oh, and Joaquin Benoit is a legitimately good pitcher.
     
    Their defense is lower than rat excrement. The infield defense is particularly terrible. I usually enjoy watching good teams play, but either this is not a good team, or this is some crazy exception. I wanted the Tigers to overtake the White Sox, so I could watch Verlander in the playoffs. I am starting to think that having to watch their terrible defense for even one more minute might not be worth watching one of the very best pitchers in baseball.
     
    Am I missing something, or is Detroit just an awful team masquerading as a decent team? If Detroit and Chicago are the class of this division, then how bad are the Twins and Indians?
  17. Brad Swanson
    I'm sitting here watching Samuel Deduno regress before my very eyes. In a way, it is sad because it would be fun for a 29 year old journeyman pitcher to suddenly harness the talent that he obviously has and become a dominant starter. The reality is that this rarely happens and while Deduno's results were good in his first couple months, the underlying stats did not support his success. He still walks way too many batters and doesn't strike enough batters out to mask it. He is starting to give up home runs and getting fewer double plays. All in all, it seems he is the exact type of pitcher that gets released by a couple of bad teams before turning 30. I worry that if Deduno is in the rotation next year, he will be nothing but frustrating for fans.
     
    All that being said, if there aren't a lot of options, why not give him a chance? Maybe an off-season working on his control could make him a serviceable pitcher. But, how many off-seasons has he already had to try to work on control? It seems hard to believe that he will suddenly become a consistent pitcher at age 30. The few dominant starts that he had were fun, but these blowup starts are not.
     
    What does everyone else think? It is a sad state in this franchise when a guy with a 4.5 ERA and 1.55 WHIP is maybe the second best option for a rotation spot next year.
  18. Brad Swanson
    Point - The Twins should try to pass Cleveland for 4th place in the Division
     
    The final two weeks of the season are extremely important for the Twins' momentum as they move into 2013. Currently, the Twins are in last place in the AL Central and the entire American League. This embarrassing situation is one that the Twins should work hard to remedy over the course of the next two weeks.
     
    There are plenty of exciting players to watch on this team and the future seems very bright, even as early as next year. The lineup is great and the bullpen has been solid. With just a couple starting pitchers, this team could really contend next year. The Twins need to see what they can get from their players in critical games. Placing high importance on finishing out of last place can potentially replicate future important September games. If a team is just trying to play out the season, the players learn nothing that they can take with them in the future.
     
    Draft picks mean nothing to me, so don't get me started on that topic. Baseball players are drafted so young that they don't contribute for a very long time. Why would the Twins sacrifice the chance to build momentum and confidence for a guy that might not play a game until 2017? What is really the difference between the 5th overall pick and the 8th overall pick? It is all just a huge crapshoot and not worth purposely losing games over. Most draft picks flame out anyway, right?
     
    Also, fans aren't going to stick around if a team is terrible and finishing in last place each year. If this team doesn't show some level of growth, fans are going to stop going to games, buying drinks and expensive memorabilia and might even stop watching altogether. A 4th place finish is a step in the right direction for fans as well. This needs to be seen and measured, or fans will stop supporting a loser.
     
    It all boils down to, do you want to cheer for a last place team? I would prefer to cheer for a team that is not in last place. A 4th place team is closer to the ultimate goal of making the playoffs than a 5th place team. With a few games of improvement next year, this could be a Wild Card team or maybe even a team that sneaks into the Division title. After all, isn't the goal in baseball to make the playoffs?
    Counterpoint - 4th Place is not a thing
     
    2nd Place is the first loser. That's a No Fear shirt. What is 4th place? Who cares? The Twins should be doing everything under the sun to achieve a last place finish. In addition, they should work as hard as they possibly can to finish as far down the standings as they can. Next year is no given and the future of this team lies a long way down the line.
     
    Most of these guys won't even be on the team next year. I'd say that half the rotation is gone, some of the lineup is traded and the new guys will be years from helping. This team has to get younger, so anything taken from these last two weeks will be basically irrelevant. Even if they do finish 4th, will that benefit next year's Rochester team? Because that is where quite a few of these guys will be playing if they are still in the organization.
     
    Draft picks, on the other hand, are extremely valuable. Top 5 draft picks are even more valuable. I have no proof to support this, but most of the elite players that I watch were drafted very early. You can't sign young talent in free agency, so you have to be able to draft it. This is especially true for 2013, as the steam seems to be that it is another weak draft class. In a weak draft, being near the top is even more important.
     
    Fans have really short memories. Did the '91 Twins have issues drawing fans? Once you start to win, the masses come back to the park. Target Field might not be beautiful enough on its own to draw more fans, but it is nice enough to keep people coming pretty regularly. Plus, what fan will honestly be tricked by a second-to-last finish? Will the Twins print 4th place finish t-shirts? Actually, wait, don't give them any ideas.
     
    For me, if my favorite team doesn't win the World Series, I don't care where they finish. I am an all or none fan. There has been a lot more "none" in my fandom, but the "alls" were extremely satisfying. My hope is that these struggles pay off in the long term. In the short term, I could care less if the Twins finish 4th, 5th, 11th, 40th or 198th. If they don't win the World Series, I don't care.
  19. Brad Swanson
    My Father-in-Law sent me a text yesterday afternoon. Here is what it said:
     
    "I see iron man Mauer has missed five straight. Most overpaid player in the game. Have a great weekend."
     
    The "have a great weekend" part was much appreciated, but the rest of the text just made me shake my head. I want to address each part of this text, as I think these are common sentiments expressed by Twins fans.
     
    1. Iron Man quip.
     
    Mauer plays a lot of games for a catcher. He has had years when he has missed time due to injury. That does not make him an uncommon player. A lot of guys get hurt. However, in the years when he has been relatively healthy, he has played the following amount of games:
     
    2005 - 131 games, 116 at catcher
    2006 - 140 games, 120 at catcher
    2008 - 146 games!!!, 139 at catcher!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
    2009 - 137 games (MVP season, didn't play until May), 109 at catcher
    2010 - 137 games, 112 at catcher
    2012 - 131, on pace for about 140, 68 at catcher
     
    I realize he doesn't play 162 games per year, but no catcher does. Now, I will admit that his games played figures should rise as he transitions from a catcher to more of a catcher/1st baseman, but the other years, he was primarily catching. Those games played figures are pretty in line with the figures put up by most starting catchers.
     
    2. Most overpaid player in MLB quip.
     
    My Father-in-Law doesn't know who Vernon Wells is. It makes for a hard argument, which is why I didn't simply respond. However, Wells, Johan Santana, Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira all make more money than Joe Mauer. At this point in their careers, all are inferior players to Mauer.
     
    3. Nothing in particular
     
    Joe Mauer still gets on base at a higher rate than any other player in baseball. While he may not be a 162 game catcher who puts up 30 homeruns per year, he is still an extremely good player. The value he may give up as a player, he brings back to the franchise in marketability. He is far from overpaid.
     
    Joe Mauer is a rare player. This type of franchise player comes around about once in a generation. This is not to say that he cannot be criticized, but the criticisms should be founded. Just enjoy him while you can.
     
    I think this response might be too many characters for a text.
  20. Brad Swanson
    Yesterday, I posited that I believe that Joe Mauer is great. I stand by this, but I can see why some are frustrated with Mauer. Buster Posey, on the other hand, is seemingly working on wrapping up his first MVP award. Posey hits home runs, catches regularly and seems to be that emotional leader that many fans get behind. In his two healthy seasons, the Giants have won a World Series and are now serious contenders to win another one. So, my question is this - is Buster Posey everything fans wanted from Joe Mauer?
  21. Brad Swanson
    It is common in human nature to be prideful and to want to demonstrate one's abilities. When a person learns a skill, they want to demonstrate that they have that skill. Just look inside any college dorm, and see which dudes learned how to play guitar. It is also very normal for humans to overestimate their abilities to perform certain skills. Often, we can only compare our level of ability to those around us. If those around us cannot play guitar, our skills look better by comparison.
     
    On the flip side, when a person is part of a group, they often will try to either prove they have the same skills as the rest of the group, or they will learn a new skill that the group does not possess, in order to stand out. This concept fits very well in the group of baseball players. If you narrow down even further, it is very interesting to look at a very select group of players: Major League Baseball players.
     
    It is common to hear of MLB players belonging to a "fraternity" of sorts. Anyone good enough to get to the big leagues is part of a very select group. These people are the best baseball players in all of the World. In fact, anyone good enough to get to the MLB is an elite baseball player. This includes Nick Blackburn and Nick Punto. Making it to that level means that the player is elite. However, that does not mean that these elite baseball players do not have deficiencies.
     
    Alfred Adler, a well-known Psychologist from the late 1800s, early 1900s, came up with the concept of psychological compensation. He believed that human existence was all driven toward perfection. He felt that people respond to inferiority by compensating. He took this a step further with the concept of organ inferiority, where all people are born with weaker and stronger parts of their anatomy and physiology. These things could be heart murmurs, stutters, ability to add muscle mass or the inability to add muscle mass. He felt that humans compensate for weaker organs by focusing much more on those stronger organs. Rather than trying to improve what a person cannot do, they focus on what they can do, and make it even better.
     
    Ok, Psychology lesson over. However, I do feel that this theory applies in baseball and that it applies differently to different players on this Twins team. In my opinion, some players take the route that Adler suggests. However, I feel that some players go the complete opposite route and that hurts them as players. Let's investigate a couple of examples that support Adler's theory and a couple that do not.
    Does not support Adler's Theory
    Ben Revere's Arm
     
    I was watching a recent game, I think it might have been Friday, and Revere made what many would consider to be a bad play. He fielded a fly ball deep in left-center field with runners on 1st and 2nd. He caught the ball and then immediately tried to throw the runner attempting to advance to 3rd. As Dick Bremer said, the throw got there on four bounces. Bremer and Bert Blyleven spent the next few sentences talking about what a bad play it was, based on the fact that the bad throw allowed the runner on 1st to also move up a base. Getting the ball to the cut-off man would have stopped that runner from advancing. There is a logical psychological explanation for this throw.
     
    Ben Revere, for all his strengths, has two major weaknesses - his arm and his power. It is odd to look at him, as he is a well-built individual. However, some people just have weaker organs. Revere's arm isn't going to get a whole lot stronger. If it didn't in his first 24 years on the planet, it is unlikely to get much stronger as he gets older. However, Revere can take this weakness in two ways. He can work hard to perfect the mental aspect of hitting cut-off men instead of trying to throw everyone out, or he can assume that his hard physical work is going to actually make his arm stronger. Odds are, he is better off throwing to the right player and taking what he can from his arm. In the heat of the moment, will pride or compensation take over?
     
    The interesting thing about Revere is that he does seem to know his limitations as a hitter. He doesn't have much power at all, so he drives the ball downward, into the ground, in an effort to use his speed effectively. In addition, he uses his great contact skills to foul off pitches, until he gets one that he can do something with. This creates a player that will never have traditional power numbers, but one that can get to second base with relative consistency either by grounding/lining doubles down the lines or by hitting singles and using his speed to get to second base via a stolen base. Regardless, if Revere can take his smart hitting approach with him into the field, he can better compensate for his lack of throwing strength.
    Pitchers' Control
     
    This might be more of a coaching/player development/player personnel issue than an actual issue with the players, but it does seem that this current Twins rotation has a lot of nibblers. I would identify Liam Hendriks, Cole De Vries, Esmerling Vasquez and P.J. Walters in this way. NIbblers try to be too refined in the strike zone, hitting corners and edges, presumably to try to get hitters called out on strikes without swinging. This style does not really fit the "pitch to contact" Twins' philosophy. As a result, there seems to be a disconnect between the type of pitchers the Twins have and the type of pitchers the Twins want to have.
     
    Do these pitchers overcompensate for their lack of natural ability by nibbling? Probably. They have good control, but mediocre raw stuff. Therefore, they try to be too fine around the strike zone. This can run up large pitch counts. Plus, good hitters just take those marginal pitches or simply foul them off. Eventually, you either have to throw and obvious ball or an obvious strike. The results haven't been great when it comes to that. When you think about it, marginal stuff is marginal stuff whether it is on the corners or not. For these pitchers, the "pitch to contact" strategy that we all make fun of, might be a better option. If they trust their defense over their stuff, they may at least luck into some success.
    Support Adler's Theory
    Joe Mauer's Power
     
    For my money, Joe Mauer supports this theory better than any player I have ever watched. Joe Mauer knows exactly what he is good at, and what he is not good at. Mauer knows that he does not have the range to play the outfield, which is why he resisted that move a couple years ago. He does know that he has the ability to play first base, so he supported that change. In fact, he has worked to get better as a first baseman, which supports this theory. As a hitter, Joe Mauer knows his limitations better than anyone. In fact, he knows his limitations so well, that he will actually take strikes, rather than swing. He knows which pitches he can drive and he doesn't deviate from his game plan. He also knows where his power lies. He knows that he has gap power and opposite-field power. He rarely tries to pull a ball over the fence, because he simply isn't that type of player. Joe Mauer knows who he is and he doesn't really seem to care what everyone else wants him to be.
    Josh Willingham's Strikeouts and Defense
     
    On the opposite side of the batter's box, Josh Willingham epitomizes the three true outcomes hitter. He walks a lot, he strikes out a lot and he hits a lot of home runs. He could try to change his approach and add 30 points to his batting average, but he likely does not know how that would affect his ability as a hitter. Instead, he emphasizes his natural power and uses his good batting eye to get on base via the walk. He doesn't seem to worry too much about the strikeouts, and they don't really affect his overall value all that much. In the field, Willingham doesn't have the arm or range for right field. Therefore, he stays in left field. This hurts his versatility, but allows him to play a position that he is comfortable with. Rather than try to learn a new position, Willingham sticks with his "strengths" and stays in left field.
     
    So while it is human nature to try to show off one's abilities, it should also be human nature to try to mask deficiencies. Players that successfully mask their deficiencies can hide what they can't do and then we only remember what they can do. They emphasize their strengths and become better players, if not always complete players. Players that don't learn to play to their strengths often show major holes in their games that may never be fixable and may never have been fixable in the first place. Ben Revere will never have a cannon, but that doesn't mean he can't hit a cutoff man.
    These are just a few examples, can you think of any others?
  22. Brad Swanson

    Micro Post - Walk-Offs

    By Brad Swanson,

    So, Denard Span just hit a walk-off single to win a pretty exciting game. Walk-offs are always fun, but I am very over the "beat the crap out of the game-winning hitter celebration." First off, Span has had concussion issues and just had a shoulder problem. Seems like hitting him on the head and tugging at his body isn't the smart move. Second, it is played out. The water jug/pie-in-face thing is played out too. Is this the real reason Drew Butera is on the team? Does he have the water jug access keys, just in case?
     
    The first player that does something inventive with a celebration will win my respect. The freeze-out after a home run is usually comical. The guy who hit the home run never really knows what to do. If a team ever successfully pulls that off after a walk-off, I would salute. I would like to see an entire team just stand in the background, doing absolutely nothing, while the walk-off hero gives his cliched post-game interview. It would be eerily unsettling. Much better than a pie in the face or some water on their uniform.
     
    What celebrations would you like to see?
  24. Brad Swanson
    I didn't provide a video last week, so here are two by Brad:
     


    The Games
    Monday - Loss to Chicago - 4-2
     
    I did not watch this game, as I had an awesome bout of food poisoning to keep me occupied. Deduno seems to have had a quality start, although the 3 Ks and 3 BBs don't make for a good ratio. Joe Mauer was caught stealing, so he is clearly overpaid.
    Tuesday - Win over Chicago - 18-9
     
    Well, that was something. The offense lit up the White Sox and Phil Humber was far from perfect. Chris Parmelee hit another home run too. I am to the point with him that I want to see what he does with 500 or more at bats next year. Between these two Septembers (granted one is still in progress) and his AAA numbers this year, he has earned it. I wouldn't be too surprised if he put up numbers similar to Justin Morneau's 2012 numbers, if given the chance. With 2013 a very unlikely year for actual contention, it seems to make sense to see what he can do.
    Wednesday - Loss to Chicago - 6-2
     
    Well, that was the P.J. Walters we were waiting for. You could say it was just Alex Rios that killed him, but 99 pitches in 5 innings is not done by one hitter. Chris Parmelee had a couple more hits, and hit play just seems to be begging for a full-time job next year.
    Thursday - No Game
    Friday - Loss to Cleveland - 7-6
     
    As hopeful as I was about Liam Hendriks and his potential for MLB success, I am starting to think it might not happen. He doesn't look comfortable at all. I realize that is not a great statistical argument, but maybe something in his personality will keep him from being a successful pitcher. Perhaps he is just adjusting to this league. It seems that the way he works on the mound (slowly) is not going to make him popular in this organization. He might have a shorter leash than others, but that could just be conjecture on my part.
    Saturday - Win over Cleveland - 3-0
     
    Cole De Vries deserves praise for this pitching performance. I have criticized him for being inefficient with his pitches and in this game he got through 6 innings using just 84 pitches. That is much better. However, it is a bit telling that he didn't get to go out for a 7th. Maybe the team wanted to make sure he got the win, and maybe Gardenhire thinks 6 innings is all you need from your starter when you can go Duensing-Burton-Perkins in the last 3. I think it is a bit odd that he didn't get to start the 7th inning. I'm not really criticizing the decision as much as I am curious as to whether it means something.
    Sunday - Win over Cleveland - 8-7
     
    Esmerling Vasquez is not great. He nibbles with bad stuff. That just a brutal combination. Greg Maddux can paint corners, Vasquez cannot. It shouldn't be too surprising that he isn't good, as his relief numbers with Arizona were pretty bad too. Sometimes, a player is what he is. Ben Revere made a play that really bothered me and the broadcasters in this game. With runners on 1st and 2nd, Revere caught a fly ball in deep center and tried to throw the runner out at 3rd. He has a really weak arm. That is just the reality. His throw wasn't even close and it allowed the runner on 1st to get to 2nd. Ultimately, it didn't matter much, but it does seem Revere doesn't know his own limitations. What an interesting idea to pursue further...
     
    Walk off home runs - always fun.
    The Transactions
    9/4 - Called up Eduardo Escobar and Luis Perdomo
     
    It seems the more significant news related to these call-ups is the fact that these were the only call-ups. It seems odd that Brian Dozier went from starting shortstop to not on the roster. There is a petition started to get Anthony Slama an opportunity. It isn't surprising that guys like Arcia and Hicks weren't called up, but it would have been fun to see them play. Escobar is probably better than Pedro Florimon. Is that really something though? Perdomo is nothing more than bullpen depth.
    The Injuries
    Matt Capps - Shoulder - September?
     
    Capps is throwing off of flat ground and I guess he could pitch at some point. But, what is the point?
    Denard Span - Shoulder - Soon?
     
    It sounds like Span should be back soon, which will be nice. Span is still one of the better players on the team, and I like to watch him play.
    Josh Willingham - Hamstring - Day to Day
     
    Willingham is likely to get a lot of days off as the year winds down. He has been the team MVP, so he certainly deserves some rest.
    The Standings
    [TABLE]


    Team

    Win-Loss

    Games Back

    Last 10



    Houston

    44-96

    ---

    4-6



    Chicago Cubs

    54-86

    10

    4-6



    Colorado

    56-82

    13

    3-7



    Twins

    58-82

    14

    5-5



    Cleveland

    59-81

    15

    4-6



    Boston

    63-78

    18.5

    1-9



    Miami

    63-78

    18.5

    4-6

    [/TABLE]
     
    The Twins have actually been the best of these 7 rotten teams over the last 10 games. I have become resigned to the fact that Cleveland will finish in last place and many Twins fans will rejoice. I will not be one of them. Boston doesn't seem to be trying at all, and could be a dark horse bottom 5 team. I still hope the Twins can finish in the bottom 3, but I am a notoriously negative nerd.
     
    The Future
     
    MLB.com updated their prospect lists! 4 Twins were in their top 100 and I am sure Oswaldo Arcia (who wasn't) was close. The farm system outlook is seemingly looking up. The four guys in the top 100 - Miguel Sano, Byron Buxton, Aaron Hicks and Eddie Rosario, all have a lot of promise. Sano and Buxton have star potential. However, this system has a lot of interesting prospects outside of the top 100. I'll highlight my excitement over these players in the future, but I am certainly keeping an eye on Travis Harrison, Max Kepler, Niko Goodrum and Jose Berrios, to name a few. I also like that there are three guys outside the top 5 who could still deliver big on past promise - Kyle Gibson, Alex Wimmers and Joe Benson. What was considered a weak farm system going into 2012 certainly looks more promising after a good 2012 in the Minors.
    The Big Picture
     
    In a previous post, I posited that the Twins in 2013 would at best be a 2012 Baltimore Orioles type of contender. I am starting to think that might be a whole lot of fun, possibly more fun than a season of assumed success. If you were an Orioles fan going into this year, you had almost no hope of getting to the playoffs. They started out well, and just kept defying odds and statistics. Now it is September and they are currently a playoff team (if the season ended today, which it won't). How much fun would that be for the fans? You basically have no expectations and the whole season is gravy. Even if they ultimately miss the playoffs, it would still be an extremely fun ride. It would be hard to be disappointed with a season like that. For Twins fans, this would be a more than welcome change from the past two seasons.
    Fantasy Tip of the Week
     
    DROP ADDISON REED ALREADY! He just makes you angry. Even when he gets a save, he gives up like 50 hits and walks everyone else. He has been a train wreck for a month now. It is time to cut ties, if only for your own health and well-being. You don't even need saves. You have plenty of good pitching, just drop him and be done with it.
     
    Sorry, that one is aimed at the author. I need to talk some sense into myself.
     
    Have a nice week everyone!
  25. Brad Swanson
    The end of a season is almost always disappointing. Only one team wins the World Series each year, and for each and every other team, there is some level of failure. Some teams fail a lot more spectacularly than others. Some fail like a gas main breaking or a lady falling out of a grape-stomping rig. In a lot of ways, the 2012 Twins are like the grape-stomping lady. They asked everyone for a break while they gathered themselves from the 2011 filled with injuries and disappointment, only to fall flat on their face, writhing in agony as their biggest supporters looked on without a clue how to respond.
     
    September of 2012 is going to be a very important month. The future of the organization can see a slight improvement, if the present it not quite so tolerable. Losing every game in September is really in the best interest of this team. Tanking is not cool though. The Minnesota Timberwolves tanked pretty visibly in the final game of the 2005-06 season, and were able to get a slightly better draft pick. They totally blew it though, and drafted Brandon Roy, only to trade him for Randy Foye. Rhymes and basketball aside, tanking has some karmic negatives, which cannot be proved using sabermetrics.
     
    The Twins can lose as many games as needed, without resorting to all-out tanking. Last September, it was an easier task. There were so many injuries last year, the team had no issues putting out a lineup and pitching staff that couldn't match up to other teams. This year, the rotation is terrible, but the lineup and bullpen have been good. This team seems more equipped to win games this year, compared with last year's team. Now, many probably don't care about draft picks much, but under the new CBA, higher draft slot means more money to spend. Having more money could allow the team to draft some high school players and keep them from going to college.
     
    Tanking is not an option. They can't just roll Matt Carson out every game or karma will get suspicious. This takes a more delicate touch. They have to use the best team they have available, while also giving "rest" to the veterans that need it. They are in a position to give a lot more rest to these older players. They can also introduce some youth. Young players need to be evaluated at the MLB level, and this seems like the perfect opportunity.
     
    However, all of this means that Ron Gardenhire is going to have some very difficult conversations to have. This is what they might sound like:
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Denard Span:
     
    "SpanMan, we need to talk. SpanMan, I know you're a gamer. You want to get out there and get at it. Your shoulder is barking and we'd love to see you back on the field. However, we want you to rest that shoulder, to be ready to get at it in 2013. We're going to give some at bats to some young guys, to see how they get at it. If you want to battle, I get it, but let's save the battle for next year."
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Trevor Plouffe:
     
    "Plouffey, we need to talk. Plouffey, I know you are a gamer. You are back out there and you're getting after it. Your thumb is still bothering you, but we need to see how you get at it in September. Next year, we are going to need you to battle through 162 games, because that is a full season. So, get out there, battle, and play hard through September."
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Justin Morneau:
     
    "Morney, it's good to see you out on that field, getting after it. We've always known that you're a gamer and that you battle. We've got some young bucks that we want to get a look at though, so we're going to give you some rest here and there. That way, you are ready to get after it again next year.
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Josh Willingham:
     
    Big Joshy, we have to have a chat. Joshy, I know that you want to be out there, getting after it. We want you out there battling too. We're going to sit you down a few days though, just to see how the other guys get after it. We need to see more from Benjamin, The Family Parm, and Matty Cars. We'll get you in the lineup most nights.
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Samuel Deduno:
     
    Deduner, time to talk. I've been impressed with how you are battling these last months. We need you keep going out there, getting after it, but start pounding the strike zone. Make sure those hitters put those balls in play and let your defense get after it as well. Battle, pound and get after it, ok?
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Matt Capps
     
    Capper, take a seat. I'm happy to see how the rehab is going. You could have given up, but you kept battling. We're going to need you in September to throw some innings. Keep working hard, get after it and battle. We have to see what's in the tank, so that we can find some innings for you in 2013.
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Terry Ryan:
     
    Terry, I need some time. I need Blackie back up here. The pitching staff is battling, but they are tired. Blackie is a bulldog and we can really use him right now. He will come up and get after it, and that is what I want in one of my pitchers. We need to see what he can give us next year and see if that sinker is sinkin'
     
    Gardy's Conversation with Joe Mauer
     
    Joseph, can I have a second? I know you want to be out there every day, and I'll make sure you are. Are you sure you don't want some breaks though? Maybe rest your knees? We could get you some DH time or even some days off? Will that work? You've been a warrior and a bulldog, so it would be great to give you some time off. Is that cool?
     
    As you can see, Gardy has a lot of tough talks coming up. Resting regulars, giving "young" players some time and seeing what some retreads can do next year, are all good ways to lose without trying to lose. But really, they seem to have the losing thing down, if the last two seasons are any indication.
     
    Yikes, this one got away from me. Sorry about that.
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