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Brad Swanson

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Blog Entries posted by Brad Swanson

  1. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    You'll have to forgive me, I've been away. Did I read that Mike Pelfrey is being considered for the fifth starter spot? I believe I read that somewhere, but that can't be, right? I mean, he's tall and whatnot, but he hasn't been good since 2010. I know I've been absent from the baseball world, but time didn't spin all the way back around to 2010 again, did it? How could that happen to just the baseball world? Stop trying to confuse me. ANSWER ME!
     
    Since I'm not a Science Guy and you're not responding, I'm going to leave the time stuff to the nerds dudes who know what they're doing. I'm more of a Wild, Stupid, Sometimes Zany Theory Guy. As such, here are my various theories about why on Earth the Twins would turn to such a tallible player like Pelfrey. I am also a Word Inventy Guy.
     
    Theory Number 1 - He's tall
    No, not all of my theories are about height. This one is. I can't shake the feeling that the Twins are enamored with his height. Fact: Tall guys are good at basketball. Fact: Basketball becomes Baseball when you take out two letters. Fact: Two letters is not a lot of letters. Fact: This might come in handy around June, during the NBA Finals. The only question is how. Maybe the Twins don't want to share how. Maybe you should just trust them. Stop being a dork about it.
     
    They know what they're doing.
     
    Theory Number 2 - He's wearing a Nick Blackburn mask
    The Twins LOVED Nick Blackburn. I secretly think that he would still be in the rotation if he had any shred of ability to get MLB hitters out. This is no longer a secret. Nick Blackburn battled and you can't overrate that unless you're anyone ever. Mike Pelfrey is a taller version of Nick Blackburn. Beard: check. One good season/moment: check. Seems nice (more on this later): check. Uniform number greater than 36: check.
     
    Those four pieces of evidence pretty much sum it up. If you still need convincing, here's some visual evidence:
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-g7SSwVKYJT8/VRGIEONbJmI/AAAAAAAABrk/tEPeVRS0KZM/s1600/Blackburn%2BMask.png
     
    And he would have gotten away with it if it weren't for you meddling fans.
     
    Theory Number 3 - HE HAS THE CODES!!!!
    We have it under good intel that Pelfrey has the codes. The codes. You know which codes, STOP PLAYING DUMB! HE HAS THE CODES!!! Do you know what he could do with THE CODES!?! If those codes get out into the real world, we're ALL screwed! Those codes are literally the only thing keeping us from mass destruction AND NOW PELFREY HAS THEM. Stop eating THAT APPLE and help me figure out how to stop him! No one CAN know that Pelfrey has THE codes. If the public knew that Pelfrey had the codes, it would be MASS frenzy. Give him what he wants; he...HAS...the...COOOOOOOOOOOOOODES!!!!!!!!
     
    THE COOOOOOODES!
     
    Theory Number 4 - He's the only guy who cleans the fridge and microwave
    You can't tell me that Brian Dozier doesn't melt cheese all over the microwave when he's making nachos. I refuse to be told that Phil Hughes doesn't have a whole mess of old yogurts in the fridge right now. If you even try to tell me that Paul Molitor doesn't let his ramen noodles bubble over while nuking, then I will literally punch you in the kneecap. Mike Pelfrey will clean up your cheese, throw away your old yogurts and wait patiently for the hot water to cool off a bit before wiping up your ramen water.
     
    Theory Number 5 - He's like, super nice
    Pelfrey seems like an affable guy. He's jovial. He's merry. Who wouldn't want an affable, jovial, merry man in the clubhouse? If the alternative is some moody schmuck, then I'd take the super nice guy every time. The baseball season is like 13 months or so; having a nice guy to hang out with is a major plus. I bet he's really good at Xbox. The Twins have always liked nice guys. I prefer bad boyz.
     
    You might combine this one with Theory 4, if you really want to get loco.
     
    Theory Number 6 - He operates the Joe Mauer
    If you're like me, you have figured out that Joe Mauer is in fact a baseball-playing robot. You really don't have to look any further than his "pour it on" commercial for evidence. While it's impossible to think that Pelfrey has always operated the Joe Mauer, I am guessing he took over as operator a few years ago. Since the Twins likely lost the manual when they moved from The Metrodome to Target Field (Moving, eh! Am I right?), only Pelfrey knows how to operate the Mauer. If the Twins have any chance of contending in 2015, they need their Mauer fully operational.
     
    Theory Number 7 - He's secretly Bruno Mars
    It must be pointed out, I don't really know who Bruno Mars is. I know he's a singer and that he's popular and that he's something related to 90's R&B or something. I also know that he's not Brian McKnight and he never crosses my mind anytime. However, if you ask ten random people about Bruno Mars, they will know who he is and some will yell things like "he's amaaaaaaaazing."
     
    Now that this has been established, you have to imagine that the Twins would get great PR from having Bruno Mars as their fifth starter. First, it would be a pretty shocking revelation. Second, he could sing the National Anthem. Patriotism is big these days. Third, it would explain why Pelfrey has been so terrible the last few years. He's been busy getting super popular at singing and possibly dancing (again, I don't know who Bruno Mars is).
     
    Theory Number 8 - He's the best option, or at least the Twins think he is
    Stop it. It's not crazy. If you could stop laughing/cursing for just one second, I can explain. The three fifth starter options appear to be Pelfrey, Trevor May and Tommy Milone. Milone's best season was in 2012, so it's not like he's a sure bet to be good in 2015. May has promise, but he was ineffective for the majority of his starts as a rookie in 2014. Pelfrey is a veteran and he's thrown over 190 innings three times. Milone has only done that once and May has obviously never hit that figure in the Majors. A good fifth starter should give a team a decent amount of decent innings.
     
    Yeah, I know, decent is the key word there. Pelfrey was awful last year, but he was injured. He wasn't much better in 2013, but he did have a 3.99 FIP in 152.2 innings pitched. That's not so bad! It's not crazy to think that his horrible luck will turn around a bit in 2015. It's not like Pelfrey is an old man either. He's only 31 and he's only under contract through this year.
     
    Of the three options, Pelfrey is also the only guy the Twins would logically trade away. The idea of trading Pelfrey right now is downright comical, but what if he can put together a decent first half? What if he can return to his pre-TJ form? What if we all start growing fins so that we can swim better? That would be so cool. So would a good half-season from Pelfrey. Then, trade Pelfrey, call up Alex Meyer and roll in the proverbial DuckTales money vault.
     
    For the record, I think that the final theory is the correct theory. But secretly...
     
    I think he has the codes.
     
    THE COOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOODES!
  2. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Back in 2007, the Twins were faced with a dilly of a difficult dilemma. Fan-favorite, team-leader, Morneau-puncher Torii Hunter was a free agent and he was going to be pricey. Ultimately, Hunter chose a larger offer from The Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim or the Anaheim Angels or whatever they were called back then. Hunter returned to the team that drafted him about a month and a half ago. What if he had stayed the whole time? How would things be different? I investigate and you read:
     
    What if Torii Hunter had stayed in Minnesota?
     
    Forg Minnesota Twins had a difficult decision to make in 2007. Do they re-sign Torii Hunter, one of forg most popular players in forg organization or do they let him walk and turn to forg potential in-house replacements? Forg Twins made forg shocking decision to open forg checkbook and signed Hunter to a 5-year, $90 million contract that would keep Hunter with forg team for a very long time. Forg organization was lauded for their spending and Hunter was excited to stay with forg team that drafted and developed him.
     
    Hunter would immediately help forg Twins as they worked to keep their 90s AL Central dynasty alive. Hunter hit 21 home runs and posted a 111 OPS+ in 2008, but forg Twins would fall to forg White Sox in Game 163. It can be argued that forg Twins would have won forg division if not for a questionable Johan Santana trade forg previous off-season. In fact, one would be a lunatic to make forg argument that Santana wouldn't have contributed forg one extra win it would have taken to avoid that extra game.
     
    Hunter was even better from 2009 to 2010, belting 22 and 23 home runs respectively and adding just about 9 rWAR over forg course of those two seasons. Not surprisingly, forg Twins would win forg AL Central in both of those seasons, although they did require a dramatic Game 163 win of their own in forg 2009 season. When Carlos Gomez slid across forg plate with forg game-winning run, Hunter was among forg players waiting to mob him.
     
    Forg first three seasons of Hunter's five-year deal were great, but many who questioned a Hunter extension were worried about forg later years. Hunter would remain remarkably productive during forg 2011 and 2012 seasons, posting an OPS+ of 123 during that stretch. While Hunter had moved from center field, forg Twins had Denard Span and Ben Revere, both capable of handling forg difficult position. Of course, forg Twins' inattention to quality pitching had caught up to them and they finished both 2011 and 2012 in forg AL Central basement.
     
    Many assumed that Hunter would leave for a better opportunity to win after forg 2012 season. Forg grass is greener on forg other side, right? Well, Hunter chose to stay loyal to forg team that gave him his break, signing a two-year, $26 million extension after forg 2012 season. Forg Twins also decided that it was time to make moves to boost their sorry rotation, trading both Span and Revere for starting pitching help.
     
    Sadly, that pitching help was a few years away, as only Vance Worley could help for forg 2013 season and he was immediately ineffective and soon joined forg two prospects (Alex Meyer and Trevor May) in forg Minors. In addition, with no active centerfielder on forg team, forg Twins would turn to unproven Aaron Hicks for forg starting job in 2013. Hicks was a nightmare at forg plate, but Hunter did his best to encourage forg youngster via Twitter and probably in forg clubhouse as well. Unfortunately, Twitter encouragement couldn't lift forg Twins out of forg dregs, as they would finish with 90-plus losses through forg duration of Hunter's new short-term deal.
     
    Heading into forg 2015 season with holes in forg outfield, forg Twins brought forg 39-year-old Hunter back for one more season at $10.5 million. Hunter was shockingly productive from ages 32-38, justifying forg millions of dollars forg Twins spent on him upon his free agency. Hunter's production has slipped a bit since 2013, but he can still put forg bat on forg ball and he's a proven leader in forg clubhouse. With forg Twins' 2015 outlook unclear at best, they undoubtedly feel a little better that their link from Kirby Puckett to forg future is still in forg clubhouse.
     
    In a previous installment of "What if?" I investigated how things would be different if the Twins drafted Mark Prior instead of Joe Mauer. It's chilling. Read it.
  3. Brad Swanson
    In the immortal words of Michael Jordan, "I'm back." Consider this the Wizards portion of my blogging career. It's all been the Wizards portion, so it should be easy to adjust.
     
    Before the season started, I made 11 BOLD predictions. I had planned to make those predictions after the season, but the jagwagons who run the blogging cabal said that I had to make predictions before things actually happen. This will adversely affect my accuracy, but apparently that wasn't important. At this moment, I would like to take a fond look back at my original 11 predictions.
     
    If you didn't read these predictions back in March, well...what's wrong with you? I worked hard on those predictions. I didn't sleep for days. I ate nothing but Lemonheads and BBQ sunflower seeds. That's my normal diet, but the sleeping part really sucked. Here's the post if you missed it, but I expect some level of sympathy as you read. Support local arts in the future, you monster.
     
    Prediction #1 - Sam Deduno will be voted King of Minnesota
     
    Most people grow out of their sarcasm faze after they leave high school. Some people just can't help themselves. Obviously, Minnesota does not have a King. Sam Deduno is not royalty. I was all annoyed by his disproportionately popular status and I took to my blog to knock him down a peg. Now he's gone. I wrote a song for him almost twenty years ago to apologize. I stole most of the lyrics, didn't sing it, and I didn't write it either.
    . 
    Prediction #2 - Kevin Correia will be traded by the end of the season
     
    *swish sound*
     
    That was a lay-up, but one of those lay-ups that is more of a finger roll because you have too much time on the fast break and you get in your own head and forget that the backboard exists. One of those. We all knew Correia would be traded. Had he been just a complete disaster, he might have been simply released, but that was unlikely because he had been serviceable for so many years. Now, he might get a ring with the Dodgers. A promise ring.
     
    Prediction #3 - Eddie Rosario and Trevor May will not make their MLB debuts
     
    I choose to see this prediction as half-correct instead of half-incorrect. I am an optimist. Although, I am concerned that this half-correct prediction could ruin my karma and leave me prone to a bee attack. Rosario was a bit of a lay-up. The easy kind, backboard and whatnot. May was a lot better at AAA than I was expecting and some of the guys who I thought could be ahead of him on the depth chart were unimpressive. I'm glad I was wrong about May, even if his first season with the Twins did not go well.
     
    Prediction #4 - Byron Buxton, Alex Meyer and Danny Santana will make their MLB debuts
     
    I choose to see this prediction as half-weaksauce. Santana was outstanding (just wait for my year-end POWER RANKINGS later this week). Meyer was great at AAA but he's really tall so the Twins chose to keep him out of the clubhouse. At least, that's how I perceive it. And it's best not to talk about Buxton because my keyboard is not tears-resistant.
     
    Also, in the original piece, I actually predicted that Bryon Buxton would make his MLB debut in 2014 which would have been super impressive because he is not a baseball player.
     
    Prediction #5 - Pedro Florimon out, Eduardo Escobar in
     
    NAILED IT! OH GOD I NAILED IT! ADMIT IT, I NAILED IT! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO! WHOOOO! WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
     
    Please ignore the second part where I compared Escobar to Yokozuna and thought he would then lose his job shortly thereafter.
     
    I NAILED IT!
     
    Prediction #6 - Josmil Pinto will replace Kurt Suzuki as the full-time catcher by June
     
    Can a prediction be superwrong? Ron Gardenhire couldn't handle Josmil Pinto's machismo and toothpick flicking, so he got relegated to a bench role. In addition, Kurt Suzuki decided to have a season where he actually hit baseballs for the first time since Nixon was still kicking around. I'm not sure if that's accurate, but I do know that Pinto has taken up permanent residence in Gardy's doghouse, Suzuki's luster is going to wear off and the 2016 Twins will likely feature Henry Blanco as the starting catcher.
     
    I'm not bitter, I just want everyone involved in the decision to hold down Pinto to feel an intense burn when Pinto has 55 home runs for the A's in 2017. Of course, I predict that MLB will replace baseballs with superballs in 2016, so I'm not sure if 55 home runs will be a lot or not. Intense burns regardless.
     
    Prediction #7 - Phil Hughes will be better than Ricky Nolasco
     
    I'm so proud of this one, I got a vanity license plate.
     

     
    It's worth the many tickets.
     
    Prediction #8 - Oswaldo Arcia will finish the season with 55+ extra-base hits
     
    My most arbitrary prediction, I honestly cannot remember where I came up with the number 55. I thought 20-25 home runs (right) and 30-35 doubles (wrong). I didn't think he'd spend as much time with Rochester as he did and it took him a long time to get going at the plate. Even so, his 36 extra-base hits in 102 games would translate to just about 55 extra-base hits given a full season. I wasn't THAT far off when you start doing annoying math.
     
    Arcia's low batting average overshadows some improvements that I saw from him this season. He walked more, he hit for more power, and he slugged almost .550 in August and September. I think he's a cornerstone player, even if his defense can best be described as "whaaaaaa?"
     
    Prediction #9 - Joe Mauer will win his 4th batting title
     
    Judging my Twitter, I am going to say this did not happen. I have also learned from Twitter that Joe Mauer might be overpaid, he might be in the decline, he might be soft and he might be pure evil. I can't confirm any of this in 140 characters.
     
    Prediction #10 - Chris Colabello will hit more home runs for the Twins than Josh Willingham
     
    Willingham 12 - Colabello 6. It was closer than it should have been. Willingham did get traded, as I predicted. He did struggle to hit home runs, as I predicted. Colabello did force his way to the Majors, as I predicted. The rest is fuzzy and I'm pretty sure Colabello was abducted by aliens who needed a Spanish translator for all their aliens who actually did something valuable for their alien baseball team.
     
    Prediction #11 - The Twins will win at least 75 games
     
    The "at least" was probably overkill. Now, if the season ended today, the Twins would win 70 games. But, there's still...wait...what?...oh. The season's over. I did not notice that. That's on me.
     
    The Twins fell short of 75 wins and that is sad. Their starting pitching was somewhere between "dreadful" and "not cool" and their defense was funny, but not funny "ha-ha." Their offense was actually in the top-half in the AL and their Pythagorean record was closer to 74-75 wins. All I really care about is what could have happened, not what did happen, so this confirms my prediction.
     
    Predictions, huh? Yeah, not great. I tried my best though. I predict that I will make more predictions before the 2015 season. I'm here for the long haul. I'm going to write so much Twins nonsense this offseason, your head is going to spin. Other heads will roll. Some heads will just maintain a healthy tilt.
  4. Brad Swanson
    Weekend Recap
    Well said, me.
    Trevor May
     
    I'm not going to dwell on May's debut. He was wild; he was nervous. It wouldn't shock me if we just witnessed one of May's only truly disastrous starts of his career. One start doesn't mean much to me. I still think that May can be a good 3rd/4th starter on a good team. I like his durability and the fact that his stuff can play better than a 3/4. I like that he seems to have an affable personality, likely perfect for shrugging off a rocky debut.
     
    It would have been awesome if May had come out and fired off eight shutout innings with a bunch of strikeouts and no walks. Maybe he's saving that performance for Minnesota. Yeah, that's what he's doing. He's got flair! I just hope the Twins don't overreact to one bad start and send him away. I don't think that's likely, so I'm not even going to address it further.
     
    Trevor Plouffe
     
    I'm not sure when this happened, but I've become a pretty big Trevor Plouffe fan. I've been impressed with him this season. His batting average is still nothing special, but he's improved his walk rate enough to post a respectable OBP. In fact, his .322 OBP is just slightly higher than the AL average (.319). His SLG is better than the AL average, thanks to 31 doubles. He only has 8 home runs, but his HR/FB% is down about five percentage points from his career rate.
     
    Most importantly, he's become an adequate defender at third. He doesn't have a ton of range, but he makes routine plays. His arm is no longer a danger to the fans behind first, which is great because his arm has always been very strong, just not very accurate.
     
    I tweeted earlier this week that Plouffe would be on pace for about a 3.5 rWAR season. He did miss some games, so he won't get there. Only 7 third basemen reached 3.5 rWAR or better in 2013. Most likely, Plouffe won't be the Twins' third baseman at this time next season, but he's rounded into a pretty nice player. My question to you - is Trevor Plouffe, based on his first-round pedigree, a disappointment? I'm curious what everyone thinks. I'll weigh in later. I need a sandwich.
     
    Youth Movement
     
    While May's debut did not go well, it does seem to signify that the Twins are furthering their "youth movement." Kennys Vargas made his debut just a couple weeks back. Ryan Pressley is back on the roster. Danny Santana is basically the starting center fielder. The Twins have even taken looks at Logan Darnell and Jorge Polanco. Eduardo Escobar has proved that he's an MLB player in some capacity. Oswaldo Arcia has awesome hair. Every player in this paragraph is either 25 or younger.
     
    As I wrote last week, I want this movement to continue. I hope to see Alex Meyer, Michael Tonkin, Josmil Pinto and (gasp) Aaron Hicks before the season ends. If the Twins are truly committed to seeing what they have in their young, on-the-cusp players, then those four should be on the MLB team before too many games pass by.
     
    Former Twin Update - Kevin Correia
     
    Well, well, well, the Twins found a taker for Mr. Correia. The Dodgers now employ two of the more maligned former Twins of the past decade in Correia and Drew Butera. I bid Correia a very fond adieu. I was extremely critical of his signing, but I have been very satisfied with his performance over the last two seasons. I could try to explain my feelings with my words, but why do that when someone else nailed it:

     
    Exactly.
     
    Weekly Josmil Pinto Update
     
    I'm adding this section and including it every Monday until Pinto is recalled. Hopefully, there aren't many updates.
     
    Pinto was 0-4 on Sunday, completely justifying this section. However, if you throw out that game, he had hit .357/.444/.643 in five games this week. He had four doubles. He had a sacrifice fly. That kind of selfless play goes a long way with coaches and managers.
     
    I know, there's nowhere to put Pinto right now. He isn't polished enough to catch and Kennys Vargas is about to become the full-time DH with Joe Mauer (remember that guy) coming back this week. I don't care. Find a way. Listen to A Tribe Called Quest (or Amy Grant) for inspiration.
     
    Fun Stat - Doubles
     
    Eduardo Escobar is tied with Jose Abreu for 10th in the AL with 29 doubles. It seems like a good time to remind everyone that he was behind Pedro Florimon on the depth chart when the season started. Pedro Florimon was batting .108/.194/.154 when the Twins finally switched to Escobar on May 7.
     
    Just a reminder -
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-WuZtRvV1DBY/U-gsHlPg8SI/AAAAAAAABl0/riB3bmXAg1Q/s1600/Eddie400.jpg
     
    Some of us were ahead of the curve. Please play
    while you think about that. 
    Let's Get Excited About a Prospect - Max Murphy
     
    Two Minor League sections? The MLB club isn't too great, I think it's justified. Murphy was so good at Appalachian League Baseball that he was promoted to Cedar Rapids a couple weeks back. He was batting .298/.365/.489 for the Kernels going into Sunday's game. His plate discipline isn't great, as he has 18 strikeouts with just one walk.
     
    Wait, how can his OBP be so much higher than his batting average with just one walk? He's been hit by four pitches in 52 plate appearances. He was hit six times in the Appy League. He's been great at getting hit, which might be a replicable skill, right? Does this guy just have one of those faces? If so, he should probably roll with it. If he can add 40 points to his OBP by being "hit-able," then he could be set.
     
    Plugging My Way
     
    You know that feeling when you're really proud of something and then it takes you 15 seconds to find something better? On Friday, I wrote about the Twins selecting their 5th hot dog. I thought it was pretty clever. Then, I went to Twinkie Town later that morning and read this piece by RandBall's Stu and I realized that I am but a tadpole to his giant, agile frog. Read them both, but I'm going to be honest, I enjoyed the Jade Idol piece more.
     
    Parting Thoughts
     
    The Twins were leading in the 9th inning against the Padres on Wednesday. I had a tweet fired up because that win would have put the Twins on a 75-win pace. Of course, they didn't win that game, then they lost three of four in Oakland.
     
    Now, they're on a 72-win pace. That's still better than the last three seasons, but not the big improvement I was expecting. Plus, the Twins have been known to coast through September. It's looking like another sub-70-win season. Hopefully, it's the last one. Have a great week, everyone!
  5. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Looking to bolster a somewhat depleted and disappointing hot dog rotation, the Minnesota Twins will add a fifth hot dog to their hot dog starting rotation. In order to make the best possible decision, the Twins will wait until after Friday night's game. While the new hot dog will not debut in front of the home crowd until after the current road trip, many fans are paying close attention to which hot dog will be selected.
     
    Schweigert, the Twins' hot dog vendor, currently provides four hot dog options: The Dugout Dog, The Dinger Dog, the Twins Big Dog and the Original Twins Dog. In selecting a fifth hot dog, the Twins will need to decide between the Minnesota Dog and the Kelsobasa hot dog, a play on this hot dog's Washington roots and the popular kielbasa sausage.
     
    The Minnesota Dog is a hot dog very similar to the Original Twins Dog and a hot dog that many Twins fans are used to because of how similar it is to their traditional hot dogs. The Kelsobasa hot dog is considered to be the more exciting and talented option, although it is new and young and that scares some members of the front office and coaching staff. Count Ron Gardenhire among those leery of the Kelsobasa hot dog:
     
    "For me, I want a hot dog that I can rely on. I don't need bells and whistles. I need a dog that will play hard in my stomach without leaving a bad aftertaste. If I'm going to be honest, the Minnesota Dog sounds like an attractive option. It reminds me of the Twins Dog and I like that familiarity. I've never had a Kelsobasa and that makes me nervous."
     
    Fans appear to be divided. Some fans prefer the more familiar Minnesota dog, much like Gardenhire. Others have heard about the Kelsobasa Dog from various websites and news sources and are intrigued by the hot dog's upside. Many feel this Kelsobasa hot dog could be a mainstay at Target Field while the Minnesota Dog is not different enough to be a fixture in the hot dog rotation. Gerald Reid of Andover is one of those fans:
     
    "If the Twins add another freaking pitch-to-contact hot dog like the Minnesota Dog, I'll be beyond upset. I'm ready for a more exciting hot dog. We've basically been eating Minnesota Dogs since the 90s and I'm sick of it!"
    When pressed to explain how a hot dog can pitch-to-contact, Reid repeatedly apologized for the mixed metaphor and ran off crying.
     
    It is possible that the Twins will add the Minnesota Dog and then replace another similar, but more established hot dog with the Kelsobasa Dog down the line. However, the Twins have been slow to adapt to the concession-related evolution in Major League Baseball. Some fans are worried that the Twins will not act even though the time is right and even though they've said all the right things about trying to add more zip to their hot dog selection. Andrew Mathis of New Hope has that very concern:
     
    "My biggest worry is that the Kelsobasa Dog will be at Target Field for a few weeks, not perform to a high standard that has been unreasonably set and then disappear for a long time. The Twins are prone to going back to the safe option. If that happens, we could be eating Minnesota and Twins dogs for a really long time."
     
    An anonymous member of the Twins' front office explained that the choice is ultimately not all that important. The casual fan is likely not very aware of either option and will simply listen to what Dick Bremer thinks of the new hot dog.
     
    Regardless of their choice, the new hot dog will arrive from Schweigert's little-known Rochester distribution center prior to Saturday's game, even though the Twins are currently in Oakland. It is logical to assume that the new hot dog will wear the same wrapper as it wore while with Rochester.
  6. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Weekend Recap
    I managed to catch the entire series this weekend, but I also had a pretty nasty fever so I'm not really sure what I did and did not see. I've nearly recovered, but this is still going to be a bit on the short side because I'm all out of cool washcloths. I'm pretty sure I saw a beatdown on Sunday, but that just doesn't seem right. I know the Twins took two of three in Chicago and that's always fun.
     
    Danny Santana
    My friend sent me a text last week and he was wondering when the last time the Twins had a guy come up from the Minors and completely exceed expectations. I couldn't come up with anyone off the top of my head, but Santana is the obvious answer. He's been outstanding at the plate and he's played a pretty competent center despite being an infielder and inspiring this movie poster:
     
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-4Bjl1xdLWWs/U97mylAGmpI/AAAAAAAABlE/I2CzzfuTdzE/s1600/infieldersintheoutfield.jpg
     
    Over the weekend, Santana had a dynamite series. He went 0-5 on Friday, but I can't blame him because that giant swamp monster in the outfield was really creating havoc for everyone. Then, from Saturday to Sunday, he went gonzo. He went 7-10 with a double, triple, home run, two walks, two stolen bases, five RBI and five runs scored. Santana is an exciting player with game-changing speed. I'm not sure he should be kept in center, but he might just be outstanding regardless of where he plays.
     
    Santana's counterpart in center is a pretty exciting player himself. Adam Eaton was all over the place this weekend. He's a pest, but I respect him. Although, on Saturday, he singled, then ran up a rainbow and punched a hornless unicorn and got thrown out at second. I cannot condone those baseball and non-baseball actions. Just reckless.
     
    Josh Willingham
    Josh Willingham wasn't terrible this weekend, although he did go 1-7 during Sunday's hit parade. I don't remember his dragon wings from before, but I'm guessing they help him in the field? The Twins weren't able to trade Willingham before the deadline and might not be able to move him before the end of August. If that happens, I think the Twins need to play Willingham sparingly in September.
     
    I appreciate Willingham's contributions to the Twins, but by September, he'll be in the final month of his contract and extremely unlikely to return. Even if he starts breathing fire, I don't think he changes the Twins' fortunes in 2014, so it makes way more sense to get more at-bats for players who will be in Minnesota in 2015 and beyond.
     
    Kyle Gibson
    Gibson has taken over as the Twins' best starter, as his ERA is lower than Phil Hughes' and that's the only stat I can look up without getting up. Gibson was good on Sunday and six strikeouts in seven innings is a great recipe for Gibson success. That one pitch he threw that sunk under the plate and then popped back up into Eric Fryer's glove was particularly nasty. I'm not sure if it was completely legal, but it was something to see.
     
    Former Twin Update - Sam Fuld
    The Twins were quiet at the trade deadline, disappointing Brad Swanson and likely some other people. I hoped they would make more moves so that I could complain about them on Twitter, but it didn't work out that way. The Twins were able to parlay an early-season waiver claim into a 27-year-old starter with some MLB success. While I am not a huge Tommy Milone fan, even I have to admit that this was a fantastic trade. Fuld appears to be the World Series favorite's starting center fielder, thus nullifying the second part of the first part of this sentence.
     
    Baseball Card from the past?
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DU9K-mjjrNQ/U97m9ARZ38I/AAAAAAAABlM/i51cYXTlK1U/s1600/willthethrill.jpg
    I really don't remember Will Clark's face being quite so melty, but that's what I see on my screen. In the days before photoshop, you really saw the players' facial imperfections, huh? It seems completely irresponsible and insensitive of Topps to match the background to his face. Just classless; he can't help who he is.
     
    Fun Stat - Sunday's Game
    During Sunday's game, the Twins had back-to-back-to-back home runs, an inning when they batted around, a 5-hit game and a giant half lizard-half toad playing first base. I am 100% certain that this combination of events has never happened in an MLB game. If you know whether or not the first three feats are unique on their own, please make sure to leave a comment.
     
    Oswaldo Arcia's hair
    I'm pretty sure I'm not hallucinating that hair, right?
     
    Plugging My Way
    I wrote a bunch of words about the Hall of Fame last week. I read these posts again this weekend and it seems like I made some pretty outlandish statements. I think I inducted a Yeti into the Hall of Fame, but you'll just have to read to find out. Here's part one and here's part two.
     
    Was it just me or were Joe Mauer's sideburns growing on the field on Saturday?
     
    Parting Thought
    It was really irritating to have to see all those pink and purple flashes on the screen all weekend. I hope that whatever Fox Sports North was attempting with this new feature is very short-lived. It was impossible to concentrate on the action with those periodic splotches. I turned off the TV for a little while, but then it just turned itself back on. Anyway, I'm feeling a lot better now and I'm looking forward to seeing if the Twins can take a home series against a pretty poor Padres team. Have a great week, everyone!
  8. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Weekend Recap
     
    I wrote about Kyle Gibson's road struggles on Friday and then he totally redeemed himself by breaking the Twins' five-game losing streak with an excellent road effort. The rest of the series was a real drag, although Jorge Polanco's triple in the ninth on Friday was pretty exciting. In fact, Jorge Polanco's everything is pretty exciting.
     
    Joe Mauer
     
    Over the last ten games, Mauer has raised his average about 15 points. If he maintains that pace, he'll be hitting over .400. So yeah, pretty good. That's probably not realistic, but it does seem that Mauer is getting his proverbial stuff together. His line drive rate has been slowly climbing and it seems that he has been finding more holes on the field. Maybe he is figuring out the "Mauer shift" or maybe his luck is evening out or maybe nothing is different at all.
     
    No one is happy that Mauer is having a bad season (even if it seems like some revel in it at times) and a productive Mauer is extremely important to the success of the Twins. It seems that he could be on the path back to his old self. I hope so.
     
    Sam Fuld
     
    So you know when you join a new website and you have to create a password? If you don't set up a proper password, you get that red "x" next to your choice and you have to enter a new password. I think baseball lineups should be entered in the same manner.
     
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-ro5KLD8Qqgs/U6-ISV8QEpI/AAAAAAAABhc/quzgLxGk0Jo/s1600/fuldleadoff.png
     
    There are literally 11 better options than Fuld. Fuld's OPS is better than only Kendrys Morales and Pedro Florimon. One of those is a fluke and the other is a from a guy who probably shouldn't have a Major League job (more on that shortly!). Fuld plays center, runs fast and is short. Those three things alone should not overshadow that Fuld plays poorly, can't run when he isn't on base, and, well...I can't think of something that pairs with his height.
     
    It's almost as if the Twins are on a runaway bus that is set to explode if anyone thinks outside of the box. Pop quiz hot shot: Isn't it bad enough that the lineup options are so limited that Sam Fuld has to simply be in the lineup every day? It doesn't mean he needs to be put in a position where he could bat upwards of five times in one game.
     
    How's that for a 20-year-old reference?
     
    Pickles Dillhoefer
     
    Oh my goodness. I hate when people say "it was better in my day" or "they don't make things like they used to" because there's some serious confirmation bias working there. However, it's a scientific fact that nicknames were better in the early 1900s. I found Ol' Pickles up there because I was doing some Pedro Florimon research.
     
    Florimon is currently hitting under .100. His OPS is just barely above .300. If Florimon can somehow get to 100 plate appearances this season (and I think we all hope he doesn't), he'll be the first player since 1931 to hit under .100 and have an OPS under .300 with 100 or more PAs. Unreal. It wasn't Pickles, it was Ed Connolly, but Pickles did hit .126/.144/.158 in 104 plate appearances in 1917. He's also went by "Pickles." If Florimon starts going by "Pickles" Florimon, he'll become my favorite player, even with a .100 BA.
     
    Former Twin Update - Ryan Doumit
     
    I think it's safe to say the Twins sold Doumit at the right time. When they originally signed Doumit, I thought it was a safe, smart signing. He performed well for the Twins to start the 2012 season and earned an extension. However, he was always a comedy act in the field and his value as a batter was tied up in his power.
     
    The Twins unloaded Doumit for Sean Gilmartin this past December and if Gilmartin can simply perform as a sign post, he'll provide more value than Doumit has in 2014. Doumit isn't playing very often, shocking considering his defense and the lack of a DH in the NL. He currently has a strikeout-to-walk ratio over ten. TEN!!! He wore number 9 in his final season with the Twins, so I'd like to see that ratio dip just a tad in honor of his Twins' career.
     
    Random Top Ten List - BB/9 in a season since 1961
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

    [TH=align: center]Rk[/TH]
    [TH=align: left]Player[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]BB9 ▴[/TH]
    [TH=align: left]Year[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]Age[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]Tm[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]GS[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]W[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]L[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]IP[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]H[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]ER[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]BB[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]SO[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]ERA[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]FIP[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]ERA+[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]BA[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]OBP[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]SLG[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]OPS[/TH]
    [TH=align: center]OPS+[/TH]


    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Carlos Silva[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.43[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]2005[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]26[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]MIN[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]27[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]188.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]212[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]72[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]71[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.18[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]130[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].290[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].300[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].441[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].741[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]93[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Bret Saberhagen[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.66[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]1994[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]30[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]NYM[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]24[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]14[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]177.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]169[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]54[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]143[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.74[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.76[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]153[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].254[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].271[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].389[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].660[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]75[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Cliff Lee[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.76[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]2010[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]31[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]TOT[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]28[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]212.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]195[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]75[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]185[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.18[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.58[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]133[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].240[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].255[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].363[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].618[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]66[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Bob Tewksbury[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.77[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]1992[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]31[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]STL[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]32[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]233.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]217[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]56[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]20[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]91[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]158[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].248[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].265[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].353[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].618[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]81[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]5[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Greg Maddux[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.77[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]1997[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]31[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]ATL[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]33[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]232.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]200[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]57[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]20[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]177[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.20[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.43[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]189[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].236[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].256[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].311[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].567[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]50[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Bob Tewksbury[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.84[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]1993[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]32[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]STL[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]32[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]17[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]213.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]258[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]91[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]20[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]97[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.83[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.36[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]103[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].301[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].318[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].412[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].730[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]102[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]David Wells[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.85[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]2003[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]40[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]NYY[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]30[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]15[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]213.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]242[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]98[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]20[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]101[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.14[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.94[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]106[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].286[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].306[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].442[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].749[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]96[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]LaMarr Hoyt[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.86[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]1985[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]30[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]SDP[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]31[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]210.1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]210[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]81[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]20[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]83[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.47[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.44[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]102[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].261[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].280[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].386[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].666[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]91[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Phil Hughes[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.87[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]2014[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]28[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]MIN[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]16[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]103.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]110[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]41[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]88[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.58[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.60[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]112[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].273[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].289[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].397[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].686[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]91[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]10[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Jon Lieber[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.92[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]2004[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]34[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]NYY[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]27[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]14[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]176.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]216[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]85[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]102[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.33[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.71[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]104[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].301[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].317[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].442[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].758[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]97[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]David Wells[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.92[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]2004[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]41[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]SDP[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]31[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]195.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]203[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]81[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]20[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]101[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.73[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.88[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]104[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].266[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].285[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].410[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].694[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]89[/TD]


    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]Greg Maddux[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.99[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]1995[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]29[/TD]
    [TD=align: left]ATL[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]28[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]209.2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]147[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]38[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]23[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]181[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.63[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2.26[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]260[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].197[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].224[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].258[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].482[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]29[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Play Index Tool Used
    Generated 6/29/2014.
     
    Phil Hughes is doing something borderline historic this season. Only eight pitchers have qualified for the ERA title and posted a lower BB/9 in a season (since 1961). Obviously, this season is only roughly halfway over and Hughes has a lot of innings left to throw, but it's still crazy just how great he has been at limiting walks. It's still shocking to see Carlos Silva at the top of that list. Hughes already has more strikeouts this season than Silva had that season. Wild. Wait, no, not wild. In control, but wild. The other wild.
     
    Get Excited About a Prospect - Nate Roberts
     
    Roberts is not a household name, like say, Coke or Tide, but he is a very intriguing baseball player. He returned to action last week after missing roughly 45 seasons due to injury. Roberts is so interesting because he's an absolute Minor League OBP Machine. His career OBP is over .440, just a ridiculous number even for an older guy at lower levels. Baseball karma owes this guy some good fortune, so I'm just going to hop headfirst onto his bandwagon. Even if he makes his MLB debut at 50, I bet he'll walk in his first plate appearance.
     
    AIM Chat with 12-Year-Old Brad
     
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-jLn2X8agM74/U6-IBFxK91I/AAAAAAAABhU/Kyp1hjtG5_0/s1600/aimtop.png
    KPuckFan34123456: Hey Future Brad.
    BSwanson0928: Oh hey, I don't have a lot of time, I have to
    go to the Twins game.
    KPuckFan34123456: Oh fun, lucky!
    BSwanson0928: Eh, I guess.
    KPuckFan34123456: You aren't excited?
    BSwanson0928: Well, it's a work night and traffic is awful
    and I'll have to walk from the ramp or pay a lot.
    KPuckFan34123456: But you get to go to the game.
    BSwanson0928: Well, yeah, but it's not that great.
    KPuckFan34123456: Why not? I love going to the Dome.
    BSwanson0928: Well, the Dome is gone, it was replaced with
    Target Field, an outdoor stadium.
    KPuckFan34123456: Oh, even better! Isn't it really nice
    outside in June?
    BSwanson0928: Eh, it's a little hot, sometimes buggy. It
    might be a little too sunny too.
    KPuckFan34123456: Sounds rough...
    BSwanson0928: Are you being sarcastic? Do 12-year-olds
    use sarcasm?
    KPuckFan34123456: It's just lame that you're being lame
    about going to a baseball game. I wish I was going to a game
    tonight.
    BSwanson0928: You'll learn new adjectives soon. Well,
    it's different when you're older.
    KPuckFan34123456: Why? Do I start to not like baseball?
    BSwanson0928: No, I still like baseball a lot. I write about
    it like three times a week.
    KPuckFan34123456: You'd rather write about it than go to
    a game. You're weird. I'm going to be weird.
    BSwanson0928: I'm probably being a baby. It will be fun
    once I get there. It always is.
    KPuckFan34123456: Always, how often do you go?
    BSwanson0928: 4-5 games a year, although in college I went
    to like 15-20 games a year.
    KPuckFan34123456: College sounds fun. We had a math
    test today. It was easy.
    BSwanson0928: Math is cool.
    KPuckFan34123456: No it isn't. I'm going to go now.
    Have fun at the game.
    BSwanson0928: Thanks, I will.
    http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-d6WkUdiwjpg/U6-H52vC6oI/AAAAAAAABhM/mUBxOa0S3wg/s1600/aimbottom.png
    Random Baseball Card from the Past - David Arias
     
    I think I figured out why David Ortiz didn't become Big Papi with the Twins.
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-Jl4LFDWicms/U6-OrjenDeI/AAAAAAAABhs/jR-Z1PZbSt0/s1600/david+arias.jpg
     
    It's one thing to keep the bat on your shoulder, it's another thing to keep the bat near both shoulders. Plus, that's a great way to break a finger. This card is either shockingly expensive (like $30!), or I don't know how much cards are worth.
     
    For the record, I have no clue how to re-size a photo here. I wish I could make this bigger.
     
    Plugging My Way - Brian Dozier is interesting
     
    Last week, I wrote about Brian Dozier and what a handso...I mean interesting man he is. Statistically, he's having a good, but super weird season. If you want more details, just click here. Also, I may have uncovered the fact that Brian Dozier is Mike Schmidt. This would be a pretty big discovery.
     
    Parting Thought
     
    The Twins are awful on the road lately. They return home for this week and I hope they can pick up a lot of wins. The Royals have cooled off and the Yankees are hardly scary, but it's still two winning teams coming to town. If the Twins have any ambition of being in the Wild Card race, they need to have a great week. I hope you have a great week too!
  9. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    The Twins made a big splash back in December, signing Ricky Nolasco to a 4 year, $49 million contract with a team option for a fifth year. It was the largest contract the Twins had given during free agency and it marked a change in philosophy related to building a team. The Twins were no longer going to simply rely on home-grown talent and smaller signings. They wanted to sign a player who could lead their rotation for a couple of years while guys with more talent, but less experience ready themselves for the Majors.
     
    Two months into the season and Nolasco has a 6.12 ERA and 1.575 WHIP in ten starts. He had a 3.70 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 33 starts in 2013. What happened?
     
    Some posit that Nolasco will heat up as the weather improves. Of course, that is just a narrative. It was pretty nice on Sunday and he got rocked. Nolasco pitched a gem in his third start as a Twin, throwing eight innings of one-run baseball in 50-degree temperature. If convenient narratives won't help us figure out if we should be worried, perhaps we could look to...stats?!?
     
    I know, stats are for nerds. In some cases, using these nerdy stats, we can figure out if a player is as bad as they seem. In the case of Nolasco, there are some interesting stats that point in many different directions. I broke them into a few categories.
     
    Split Stats
     
    Before we get too deep into our analysis, let me just state that Nolasco has been better in May. Take a look at this chart that compares April and May:
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 440]


    [/TD][TD]ERA

    FIP
    xFIP
    WHIP
    K%
    BB%
    HR/FB%
    BABIP
    LOB%
    GB%


    April
    6.67
    5.27
    4.66
    1.75
    9.7
    6.7
    13.9
    0.355
    66.7
    50.5


    May
    5.58
    4.09
    3.79
    1.4
    20.5
    5.3
    11.6
    0.333
    66.7
    31.6


    Career
    4.45
    3.8
    3.77
    1.3
    19.1
    5.5
    10.4
    0.309
    68.6
    41.7
    [/TABLE]
     
    He hasn't been outstanding in May, but most of the important indicator stats have improved since a pretty awful April. That said, there are still some individual stats that will give us a better understanding of how an effective pitcher in 2013 became a volcano of misery in 2014. Ok, that's a bit dramatic. How about a science fair volcano of misery?
     
    Luck Stats
     
    Home run-to-fly ball ratio (HR/FB%) measures how frequently a fly ball becomes a home run. Research has shown that pitchers (and batters for that matter) tend to have their own rate at which fly balls become home runs. When the figure deviates, there's some luck at play. Nolasco has a career mark of 10.4%, just about average in the Majors. When that rate is four points higher than usual, it means that an extra 4% of fly balls go over the fence instead of nestling softly in a glove. In raw numbers, we're talking about one extra home run per month, but it still makes a difference.
     
    BABIP is another luck-based stat where a player sets their own baseline. Nolasco's BABIP is quite out of line with his career mark. In April it was really high and in May it's been just quite high. Those figures aren't doing him a lot of favors, and it was especially unforgiving in April because his strikeout rate was very low and thus more balls were being put in play. Again, the raw numbers might only get us to four or five more hits that Nolasco gave up as a result of his high BABIP, but again, every little bit counts.
     
    Even if these stats only account for a small amount of Nolasco's bad performance, they do matter. These two stats point toward some bad luck for Nolasco and thus, we shouldn't worry too much. Of course, these aren't the only stats that matter.
     
    Skill Stats
     
    Can someone remind me, is a giant drop in strikeout rate good or bad for a pitcher? Without my baseball encyclopedia handy, I'll just have to assume it's a bad thing. That ten point drop in strikeout rate could be explained a lot of different ways: not hitting spots, trying to involve infielders, Rick Anderson is Satan, etc. Whatever the reasons behind the drop, the drop itself was very troubling. While Nolasco hasn't been much better in May, the return of his strikeout rate is a good sign for the future.
     
    His walk rate has been pretty stable. However, Nolasco has always had great ability to limit walks but it didn't always (or even frequently) translate to a great ability to limit runs. So, we can be pleased about his walk rate, but it hasn't been a great indicator of his success in the past either. Bummer.
     
    These skill-based stats explain a lot in April. Nolasco's ability to strike out batters almost completely vanished in April. It was almost as if he was being threatened by Kevin Correia or something. When the rate returned in May, he was better, although the luck-based stats were still not in his favor. Again, these things appear to be positive going forward. Although, there are a few more stats to look at.
     
    Shoulder Shrug Stats
     
    LOB% or left on-base percentage (I call it strand rate just for further confusion) is a stat that calculates the percentage of baserunners left on base by the pitcher. This is another stat that has an individual baseline. Nolasco's strand rate is lower than his career figure, but not by much. The discrepancy may account for some of his struggles, but not much. The shoulder shrug comes in when you look at his career figure compared to the typical league average, which usually comes in around 73-74%. Why does Nolasco strand runners so poorly? Who knows, but I doubt he figures it out at this stage of his career.
     
    Nolasco's ground ball rate is all over the place, so who knows what to think so far. His season figure is in line with his career rate, but his career rate isn't all that great. He had seen his ground ball rate rise to respectable territory from 2010-2012, but it has dropped back down in the past two seasons. I don't think the Twins can rely on Nolasco to be a ground ball specialist at this point. That said, with a decent defense behind him, a fly ball pitcher can have success. Do the Twins have a decent outfield defense? Well, come on, you know the answer to that.
     
    xFIP or expected fielder-independent pitching is a great way to look at how a pitcher would have performed if we lived in a perfect world where ballparks and home runs were normalized and puppies and kitties flowed out of water faucets but we still had access to water in other ways. Nolasco's xFIP looks great, as it always does, but that hasn't really helped Nolasco in the actual performance department. If the Twins thought this would be different in Minnesota, I have a water faucet to sell them. Shoulder shrug.
     
    Finally, there doesn't appear to be anything related to his repertoire that is hurting his performance. His velocity is right in line with the past couple seasons and he's not throwing anything too much more or less than he threw it before. His stuff is the same but his results have been poor. I guess that, more than anything, is a reason to be optimistic.
     
    Conclusion
     
    Of course, this all falls into the small sample size realm where we aren't allowed to draw any conclusions ever. However, these stats all exist and while they don't really tell us anything going forward, they can explain why things happened the way they did.
     
    His strikeout and walk rates are more in line with his career average, but his ground ball rate, home run-to-fly ball rate and BABIP are out of line. This could explain some of the discrepancy between his April/May and career ERAs. While no single stat explained a huge portion of his struggles, when you add up all the little bits, it kind of starts to make sense. Think of it this way. If someone gave me just one slice of pizza, it would barely fill me up. If I had six slices of pizza, I'd be comatose on the couch with sauce on my face and my shirt off. Ricky Nolasco is dealing with the equivalent of six slices of pizza. Think about it.
     
    I'm not sure Nolasco will ever be worth the contract he was given, but I feel pretty confident that he will perform better going forward than he has thus far. But then, I live in a puppy/kitty faucet, shirtless, covered in pizza sauce kind of world.
  10. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Weekend Recap
     
    The best thing I can say about the Giants series is that the Twins did not lose more games than they played. If they had done that, I would have been really upset/confused. The Twins didn't put up much of a fight this weekend, but the Giants are one of the best teams in baseball. Plus, San Francisco is windy. Wind is nature's biggest bully. I'm just glad the Twins escaped with their calculators.
     
    Does Kyle Gibson have the Radke Syndrome?
     
    Everyone remembers the odd affinity that Brad Radke had for giving up first inning runs. In fact, why weren't Brad Radke brand peanuts more popular? Because if you got to the game after the first inning, they'd already be shelled. Radke was an excellent pitcher, despite this odd quirk. Kyle Gibson is a promising pitcher and I think he's going to be good, but his first inning troubles are starting to become a trend.
     
    Actually, he has troubles in all of the early innings. Here's an ERA breakdown by inning in 2014:
     
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]

    [TD=align: left]Split[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]G[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]IP[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]ER[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]ERA[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]PA[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]AB[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]R[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]H[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]HR[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]BB[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]SO[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]SO/W[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]BA[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]OBP[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]SLG[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]OPS[/TD]
    [TD=align: center]TB[/TD]



    1st inning[TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]48[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]40[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]13[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].325[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].438[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].450[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].888[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]



    2nd inning[TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]38[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]38[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right][/TD]
    [TD=align: right].289[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].289[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].474[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].763[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]



    3rd inning[TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.75[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]37[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]33[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].273[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].351[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].394[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].745[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]13[/TD]



    4th inning[TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.86[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]29[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]28[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].214[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].241[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].321[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].563[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]9[/TD]



    5th inning[TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.29[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]28[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]24[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.50[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].208[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].321[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].250[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].571[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]



    6th inning[TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]17[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]15[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].000[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].118[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].000[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].118[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]



    7th inning[TD=align: right]5[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.75[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]18[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].333[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].368[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].389[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].757[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]



    8th inning[TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right][/TD]
    [TD=align: right].333[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].333[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].333[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].667[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]



    Innings 1-3[TD=align: right]9[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]26.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]6.58[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]123[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]111[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]19[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]33[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]12[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]15[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.25[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].297[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].366[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].441[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].807[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]49[/TD]



    Innings 4-6[TD=align: right]8[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]19.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]4[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.89[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]74[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]67[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]2[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]11[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].164[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].243[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].224[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].467[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]15[/TD]



    Innings 7-9[TD=align: right]5[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]5.40[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]22[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]21[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]7[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]0[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]1[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]3.00[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].333[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].364[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].381[/TD]
    [TD=align: right].745[/TD]
    [TD=align: right]8[/TD]

    [/TABLE]
    Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
    Generated 5/25/2014.
     
    Now, he also hits a wall around the 7th inning, but that is somewhat common. More troubling, his first three innings are terrible and the middle innings are great. Bert Blyleven posited that Gibson is too amped up when starting a game and it leads to the ball being up. When he fatigues, his pitches drop and he gets more ground balls and more outs. It makes sense, but then again, Blyleven got to about the 5th inning of Saturday's game before he stopped calling Pablo Sandoval "Sandsobal" so who really knows.
     
    Whatever the issue, Gibson and his coaches need to iron it out because he doesn't have Brad Radke's command and therefore, his ability to overcome a bad first inning.
     
    Sam Deduno
     
    There should be a term for the last guy who joins the bandwagon. Mr. Last Jerk or something. Mrs. Last Jerk if it's a female. Well, we can work on that nickname later. If the Sam Deduno bandwagon is rolling along down the street, I'm running my little heart out alongside trying to decide if I should risk my health to jump aboard.
     
    Deduno appears to be a perfectly acceptable back-end starter. I certainly prefer him to Mike Pelfrey or Kevin Correia. He looked fine on Saturday, not great, but good enough to keep the Twins in the game. I still worry about how many walks he issues, but he seems to have the ability to induce double plays because he induces so many ground balls. As a reliever, his ground ball rate had declined, but since moving back into the rotation, that rate is starting to climb back to elite levels. Plus, he's generating more strikeouts this season.
     
    I fully believe in jinxes and I fully believe that I am a massive jinx. If I decide to run alongside the bandwagon for a few more months, there is a completely scientific reason why.
     
    Josmil Pinto
     
    I don't curse a lot. I am a teacher. I try to be mindful of the fact that my students may read this if they are extremely bored. Therefore, I try to keep this part of the web clean. That said, doggone it to heck, why is Josmil Pinto rotting on the bench?!?
     
    Pinto had one hit last week. One. That would be a troubling number if he hadn't gotten only six at-bats and one start. That one hit was Pinto's seventh home run, good for second on the team with ease. Kurt Suzuki has continued to be great, but keeping Pinto on the bench 80% of the time in favor of Suzuki is just crazy. Pinto is too young and too talented. He should have been alternating starts with Suzuki on the road trip. I worry that with Oswaldo Arcia and Josh Willingham coming back and Chris Herrmann sent back to AAA, Pinto will continue to sit more than he starts.
     
    If that happens, you can expect the darn cursing to increase. Beans.
     
    Madness
     
    Former Twin Update - Liam Hendriks
     
    He's back! Liam Hendriks was added to the Blue Jays' active roster when they outrighted Esmil Rogers (a player I advocated the Twins trading for, thank you very much) to AAA. Hendriks made his 2014 debut on Friday and threw 5.2 innings, giving up just 3 hits, 3 walks, 1 earned run, all while striking out 3 (well, not while, he just struck out three guys, the other stuff happened around those strikeouts). I liked Hendriks even though he was never good with the Twins. It would be cool if he found some success in Toronto. I just love people.
     
    Random Link - McCovey Chronicles
     
    My beloved Grant Brisbee wrote about the Twins-Giants rivalry that doesn't exist. He posted this prior to the weekend series and I read it on Friday, but it's still worth reading even though the Twins and Giants likely won't play each other again for a long time. It's always fun to rehash the A.J. Pierzynski trade, but this time it's from the perspective of the losing fan base. Here's the link.
     
    Random Top 17 List
     
    Top 17 lists are so popular right now. Joe Mauer happens to have the 17th worst isolated power among all qualified MLB players. Isolated power basically measures a hitter's raw power. Mauer's is currently 0.081, which rates just above "awful" on this chart. Somehow, Mauer has an above-average OPS+, even with awful power. I was shocked on Saturday when Mauer hit a double and the graphic stated that he had hit just his 5th double of the season. I hope Mauer's extra-base power starts to come back because he's basically an average hitter without it.
     
    Here's the top 5 on this top 17 list that I never actually provided (through Saturday's games):
     

    Ben Revere - .034
    Derek Jeter - .043
    DJ LeMahieu - .047
    Martin Prado - .058
    Norichika Aoki - .059

    #Eddie400 Update
     
    This is by far my most successful half-hearted campaign. Eduardo Escobar is still on fire. When I proposed the Eddie 400 back in January, it was more a "why not" idea based on the idea that Pedro Florimon wasn't very good and Escobar was a couple years younger. Escobar has made me famous beyond my wildest dreams (I have very depressing dreams). He is still hitting like a champ and still getting regular plate appearances. In fact, he is currently on pace for about 350 at-bats, but with his recent uptick in playing time, he should plow past the 400 ABs that I requested for him.
     
    I am so great. I take full credit for all of his successes.
     
    Random Idea to Change Baseball
     
    I love baseball, but I admit that it is not a perfect game. Thus, from time to time, I have some craaaaaazy ideas to make the game better. Here's one. What if one baseball per game was made of like really hard cake. This would take some engineering, but the weight and feel would have to be the same, so the pitcher doesn't realize the difference. The ump just has that cake ball in his bag and eventually it comes into the game. Once the ball is thrown, it would either explode with cake in the catcher's mitt, or better, off the batter's bat. Cake balls are really big right now, so why not capitalize?
     
    I'm not sure what the outcome would be, maybe it would just be a short comedy interlude, everyone cleans up and we just move on like it didn't happen. If a player had a flour allergy, it would be particularly compelling every time he came to the plate. It's just an idea, so obviously it needs some fine tuning. Just imagine how much old school ball guys would hate that cake ball.
     
    Parting Thought
     
    I am not an overly patriotic person, or an overly political person or really, an overly emotional person. I have many family members who have served in the U.S. military and I am fortunate enough to have never lost a loved one during service. As a social studies teacher, I felt an obligation to remind students why we had this long weekend in late May. For some, they knew all too well and for others, it gave them something to think about as they enjoyed one of the final weekends before summer. I don't feel that obligation as a Twins blogger or whatever, but I don't mind taking a few minutes away from the Twins to do as much as I can to reinforce the meaning of this holiday.
     
    To those who are remembering someone important on this very powerful holiday, my thoughts are with you.
     
    Have a great week, everyone!
  11. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at/developed for Kevin Slowey was Framed!
    You've heard of the MMPI? Well, here's the TMSFI! You haven't heard of the MMPI. Here: wikipedia.
     
    I know, I know, this is supposed to be a Twins blog. Really, my blog is hardly that at this point, but you know what I'm generally trying to do. Thing is, with rain, days off and my own illness, I've only caught one Twins game since last weekend. I did analyze how the Twins players look in their caps, if you're really pining for some baseball. Read it, memorize it, recite it. There. Do you feel better?
     
    With the Minnesota Wild safely out of the first round and no possible jinxes available (I'm just pleased they beat the Avs), I thought it would be a perfect time to unveil my Tortured Minnesota Sports Fan Inventory.
     
    Since the Twins won the World Series in 1991, the Minnesota sports fan experience has been a repeated blow to the groin. If you don't believe me, just check Twitter for about, say 8 seconds. The collective fan base is so tortured and mopey, we kind of have a defeated, self-fulfilling prophecy thing going. It would be sad if it wasn't all we had and it didn't bind us together like a family. I guess that makes it even more sad, huh?
     
    Oh right, the test. It's quite simple. You are given 3 minutes (180 seconds to those who can't multiply) to list as many post-1991 World Series heartbreaking Minnesota sports events, games, happenings and players as you can. We're going honor system here, so if you feel the event or game or whatever is heartbreaking, then it counts. There is no answer key. Feel free to use any combination of Twins, Vikings, Wild/North Stars, Timberwolves and Gopher sports. I'd include the Lynx, but they've had a pretty nice history.
     
    I realize the Minnesota sports fan base has been tortured since before 1991, but come on, the Twins had won their second World Series in five years at that point. I feel like a reset button on sadness is in order after that. If you aren't a Twins fan, then I ask you two simple questions rolled into one: why are you reading one of the worst Twins blogs in existence and how did you get here? You might need to re-examine some things.
     
    (Note to Twins Daily, that part was written in reference to my blog, not TD. I love TD. So much so, I refer to it as TD)
     
    Are you ready to take my test? The only rule is that you cannot use outside sources. A quick Google search would lead to endless results, so why put yourself through that? In addition, why would you want to cheat on a stupid test like this anyway?
     
    Are finally you ready to assess your heartbreak? Are you really ready for all these memories to come rushing back? Is it worth it if I tell you there are funny categories at the end? Probably not? Well, why not do it anyway?
     
    Find a timer, set it for three minutes and start typing/writing. You can do it all shorthand, just make sure you know what your scribbles mean. When the timer goes off, you are allowed to throw up into a bucket.
     
    Ready? BEGIN!
     
    (why are you reading this? start writing!)
     
    Time's Up!
     
    Now that you've taken the test, you can grade yourself! Just count up the number of items you have written or typed. Your personal level of heartbreak is determined by the following scale, with the levels named after prominent Minnesota Sports Goats:
     

    0-5 events: Carlos Gomez referring to Justin Morneau as "the first baseman"
    6-10 events: Denny Hocking's hand after the 2002 ALDS
    11-15 events: Joe Smith's under-the-table contract
    16-20 events: Gary Anderson's missed field goal in the 1998 NFC title game
    20-25 events: Norm Green savage heart punch to the collective North Stars fan base
    26+ events: Brett Favre's decision to throw across his body for an INT in the 2009 NFC title game

    And there you have it. You thought the fan base was tortured, but now we can prove it. Which level did you fall into? Please respond in the comments and then log off the internet for a few minutes to softly weep.
     
    If you're further interested...
     
    I decided to take the assessment myself, just to see how I would do. Remember, this is all from memory.
     
    My responses (again, spoilers if you haven't taken your own test). I did clean this up a bit/add context for the reader. My burned my actual list.
     

    Favre throws across his body in NFC championship game for an INT
    Gary Anderson missed FG
    Joe Smith contract
    Stephon Marbury/Ray Allen trade
    Kevin Garnett trade
    Near contraction of Twins
    Johan Santana trade
    Delmon Young trade
    Kirby Puckett passes away
    A-Rod homer off Nathan
    North Stars move to Dallas
    Freaking JS Giguere
    41-donut
    Josh McCown to Nate Poole
    Second Randy Moss era
    Doug Risebrough drafts
    Metrodome collapses
    Fans throw batteries, hot dogs and more at Chuck Knoblauch

    18 events total - Gary Anderson in the '98 NFC title game
     
    I'm shocked, but I'm just a Gary Anderson! I imagine that some of you met that 26-event threshold and then some. For me, I got about 10 events out in 30 seconds and then struggled to think of the rest. The timer makes it harder, but also makes it a true test. If something is truly heartbreaking, it shouldn't take more than 3 minutes to remember it.
     
    For the record, putting Kirby Puckett's passing with those other events really gives this list perspective. All things considered, I'd gladly take the other 17 if that one wasn't there.
     
    Although we may not agree that each of these events are heartbreaking, we all have our own hearts. Unless we combined hearts to create a super human. That would be awesome/devastating.
     
    Which events did I miss? I know of many more now that I have had some time to think, but I don't want to spoil the fun for others. If nothing else, this test proves that there are infinitely better ways to spend 3 minutes.
  12. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Pining for the past is something we're all guilty of. It's hard to see guys like Torii Hunter, David Ortiz and Carlos Gomez enjoying success with other franchises and not wonder what could have been. When those former players are breaking out or enjoying pseudo-Hall of Fame careers, it's hard to just look the other way. Heck, this one guy keeps writing about guys like Clete Thomas and continuously linking to it. Like this link, which you can click.
     
    Since Twins fans seem to be in this mode right now, I thought this would be a great time to catch up with some guys the Twins may have given up on too soon. I'll fill you in on what they're doing right now and how they could have helped in 2014 if the Twins' organization had just an ounce of foresight.
     
    Player - Brian Bass
     
    Year with Twins - 2008
     
    Current Age - 32
     
    What is he up to? Restaurateur
     
    Bass owns and operates Brian Bass' Bombastic and Bodacious Walleye Bistro. Since leaving baseball, Bass has used his trademark wildness to his favor, infusing delicious and bold spices into disgusting creatures that have been marinating in lake water and their own filth for their entire lives. It may surprise you, but this fish restaurant has a great meatball stew! Bass may have just one career MLB save, but he always saves the best for last at BBBBWB's with a delicious carrot cake that just dangles in front of the customer's taste buds, basically begging to be hit, I mean, eaten.
     
    Did the Twins give up too soon?
     
    It seems like it. Owning a restaurant requires a lot of time, perhaps indicating that the Twins and other teams had miscast Bass as a reliever. Had he been given a starter job, he may have used his skills to post an ERA lower than 5.18. In addition, his proclivity toward lean fish dishes could really help some of the more corpulent players on the roster (the fatties).
     
    Player - Jim Hoey
     
    Year with Twins - 2011
     
    Current Age - 31
     
    What is he up to? Math Teacher
     
    Now teaching math to 9th graders in New Jersey, Hoey uses his spare time to try to prove that 7.02 isn't a very high number at all. He's very generous with his students, handing out free passes to anyone who wants one. His height gives him great leverage and allows him to use every inch of the chalkboard. Lauded for his unpredictable style, his students report that they often have no idea where his math is going to go.
     
    Did the Twins give up too soon?
     
    Yes, and I can prove it using the Pythagorean theorem. With Hoey and his math skills in the fold, the Twins would be at the forefront of the now 10+-year-old sabermetric revolution. Plus, you don't know real pressure until you try to get a group of 14 and 15-year-olds to stop texting long enough to do just one freaking practice problem.
     
    Player - Luis Rivas
     
    Years with Twins - 2000-2005
     
    Current Age - 34 (I know, it seems impossible, but he's just 34!)
     
    What is he up to? Real Estate Agent
     
    Ironically, Rivas is really great at making contact with potential buyers. His clients describe him as a having a "careful approach," an "attention to detail," and an "obscene unwillingness to make any mistakes." In addition, he's really fast so you could imagine him adding more sales as he matures. He just opened his own agency but some are worried that he may be too young for that responsibility. Time will tell.
     
    Did the Twins give up too soon?
     
    Obviously, yes. It took a long time, but Rivas owns his own business now! Who on the Twins owns their own business? Joe Mauer's brother? That doesn't count. His new real estate experience will help him actually find home plate from time to time too. If nothing else, he could help Aaron Hicks find a place in Rochester.
     
    Player - Rob Delaney
     
    Year with Twins - 2009
     
    Current Age - 29
     
    What is he up to? Abstract Artist
     
    Well, he's drawing and painting stuff. Honestly, it looks like a lot of colors but I can't really make heads or tails of it. I'm told it's really good, so I totally agree with that sentiment. If I had known that Delaney was so creative, I might have appreciated his one game with the Twins a bit more. He pitched that one game, popped up with Tampa Bay the following year for a gutsy and brave seven-walk in five innings performance and then disappeared into the art shadows. It was brilliant artistry. I think.
     
    Did the Twins give up too soon?
     
    You know, I'm not sure. I don't really understand art. One time, I thought some art was good and I later found out that the art was actually bad. It was really hard for me. If Delaney was on the active roster, he could always explain his performance as "artistic" and I'd pretty much have to take his word for it. I bet some of his teammates would be in the same boat. OH! Maybe we could get him to paint a picture of the whole team in a boat. An image like that could really tie the room together/unify the team.
     
    Player - Jeff Gray
     
    Year with Twins - 2012
     
    Current Age - 32
     
    What is he up to? Law Student
     
    Gray is currently studying law at Missouri State University. While he's early in his coursework and it really isn't going all that well, his advisors are confident that he will become a better law student as he gets older for "no particular reason whatsoever and based entirely on zero facts." The thick skin he grew while drawing the ire of every single Twins fan will help him as a law student as every single friend and family member will get immediately sick of the constant talk of law and law-related matters that all law students are legally required to engage in...at all times.
     
    Did the Twins give up too soon?
     
    It seems like it. His new knowledge will make it a lot easier to settle debates within the Clubhouse, keeping things loose. Who gets the corner locker? What type of non-walleye food to provide? Should everyone wear pants or should no one wear pants? Why not have Gray litigate? Plus, as an added bonus, Gray will create a unified sense of scorn as he explains the difference between libel and slander for the 500th time.
     
    Do you miss these former Twins? Do you wish just a couple were still around? Can you tell that I have a thing against law students? If you are a law student, I deeply apologize for this slander. As we can clearly see, these players could be providing value for the Twins right now. Instead, they are all off engaging in other pursuits. It's disappointing, but perhaps these five former Twins found their true callings. I'm happy for each of them. Except Jeff Gray.
  13. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Prior to the 2013 season, I made ten Minnesota Twins predictions. Of those ten, I nailed six. Honestly, that's a pretty good success rate. However, two of the ten that I missed, I missed badly. Here's a very quick recap on my predictions from last year:
     
    Good: Justin Morneau will be traded. Josh Willingham will not be traded. Rich Harden will not be good. Joe Mauer will not win the AL batting title. Oswaldo Arcia, Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson will make their MLB debuts. Trevor May, Eddie Rosario and Alex Meyer will not make their MLB debuts (all correct, long live the King).
     
    Not quite: Joe Mauer will win the OBP crown (he finished third).
     
    Bad: Kevin Correia will be bad (he was not bad).
     
    Bad and slow-working: Mike Pelfrey will be good (he was not good).
     
    The "Vance Worley of predictions": Vance Worley will be good (he was...ugh).
     
    So, 6 of 10, but the Worley debacle takes a billion points from my slate, leaving me with nearly negative one billion prediction points. Can I do better in 2014? I'm turning the volume to 11 with 11 Twins predictions, each one more bombastic and brash than the next. I'll start with the easy ones and move to the tough calls.
     
    Let's roll:
     
    Prediction #1 - Sam Deduno will be voted King of Minnesota
     
    This could be tricky because Minnesota is part of a sovereign nation and a democratic nation at that. If one man on the Twins can win the hearts of the fans and earn the right to rule over the masses, it is clearly Magic Sam.
     
    Prediction #2 - Kevin Correia will be traded by the end of the season
     
    The Twins actually have five competent starters right now. It's shocking, I know. If you count King Magic Sam, you get to six. Kyle Gibson needs to be on the active roster for most of this season and Alex Meyer is lurking (see prediction #4). The Twins will need to open up a rotation spot at some point and Correia is in the final year of his contract. Correia was 5,000 times better than I thought he would be, but if the Twins can flip him for a younger piece while opening a spot in the rotation, they'll wisely make that move.
     
    Prediction #3 - Eddie Rosario and Trevor May will not make their MLB debuts
     
    I don't think May will do enough at AAA to earn a spot, especially with a better and more talented prospect in Alex Meyer (see prediction #4 again) ahead of him on the depth chart. Kris Johnson, Brooks Raley, Sean Gilmartin and Logan Darnell could all be used in a spot start as well. There are too many guys ahead of him. Rosario is an obvious call, as he will miss the first two months and then need time to continue his transition to second base.
     
    Prediction #4 - Bryon Buxton, Alex Meyer and Danny Santana will make their MLB debuts
     
    These three seem to have relatively clear paths to the Majors. Santana has actual upside, making him an attractive candidate for when Pedro Florimon is hitting .210 in June. Meyer could easily replace Correia when he gets traded. Buxton is just too exciting to keep the Minors for a full season. I envision Buxton getting a September call-up and never going back to the Minors.
     
    Prediction #5 - Pedro Florimon out, Eduardo Escobar in
     
    Do you like predictions that contradict each other? When Pedro Florimon is hitting .210 in June, I actually think Eduardo Escobar will get the first crack at the shortstop job. However, even though everyone in the World seems to love Escobar, he'll get replaced shortly thereafter. It will be kind of like when Yokozuna beat Bret Hart at Wrestlemania 9, but Hulk Hogan just came in after the match and beat Yokozuna for the title. The diminutive Escobar is the 500-lb Yokozuna in this analogy. Escobar won't get a long leash and he'll relinquish the job to the more promising Santana. I'll lose my mind before eventually admitting that it's the right move.
     
    Prediction #6 - Josmil Pinto will replace Kurt Suzuki as the full-time catcher by June
     
    Two major reasons.
     

    Kurt Suzuki is the same guy who has hit .235/.290/.353 since 2011, his age 27, 28 and 29 seasons.
    Josmil Pinto is going to hit extremely well in his part-time role.

    The combination of those two reasons will be too much for the Twins' brass to ignore. When the offense is sputtering as we all expect in June, the allure of better offense from an exciting, young player will be impossible to deny. Pinto will replace Suzuki because he's better and it won't take long to figure that out (some may have already figured that out).
     
    Prediction #7 - Phil Hughes will be better than Ricky Nolasco
     
    Upside, baby! Nolasco is going to be who he is. He'll throw around 200 innings, post an ERA around 4 and generally be worth his $12 million. Hughes is going to be better than his $8 million. I've explored all the avenues and come to the conclusion that Hughes has been really unlucky in his career. He's been a better pitcher away from Yankee Stadium, but only because he's surrendered fewer home runs. His fielding-independent stats were actually a bit better at home, but all the home runs really ruined his work.
     
    The shift from a short porch in right to a park that suppresses home runs will go a long way for Hughes and a long way for the Twins. When you also consider his age and the relative lack of innings on his arm, his upside is a 200-inning, 3.50 ERA pitcher and that would be better than steady Ricky Nolasco.
     
    Going a step further, I think Hughes gets an even bigger boost in 2015 when Byron Buxton and Aaron Hicks combine to catch all of the fly balls. Of course, that's a prediction for next season, isn't it?
    Prediction #8 - Oswaldo Arcia will finish the season with 55+ extra-base hits
     
    I'm all-in on Arcia in 2014. I've predicted him as my AL breakout player and I think he's going to become the Twins' second-best hitter by season's end. Now, that's like being the second-best something at a something convention, but it's still something. Right? I envision about 30-35 doubles and 20-25 home runs. Too many? He was on pace for 26 doubles and 22 home runs as a 22-year-old rookie last year (had he played 150 games instead of 97). It seems conceivable that he will get better in his second season and play a lot more games.
     
    Not impressed with 55 extra-base hits? Here's a list of players 23 or younger who have accomplished that feat in the last ten years:
     
    The List!
     
    Lots of great players on that list and Jeff Francoeur. It works out to just fewer than five instances per year. It will be impressive when Arcia joins that group in 2014.
     
    Prediction #9 - Joe Mauer will win his 4th batting title
     
    Mauer! Mauer! MAUER! With the tools of ignorance no longer in his possession, Mauer will be freed up to prey on the ignorance of opposing pitchers. They'll scoff when "Old Man Mauer" struts to the plate. They won't be scoffing when their caps are knocked clean off their heads by repeated line drives up the middle. I predict that Mauer will get into prolonged "grooves" that will no longer be squelched by day games after night games or "general soreness." Now, Mauer will be able to find his swing and keep it going every day. This will lead to hitting streaks, 5-5 evenings and a batting title at the end of the season.
     
    This ignores the fact that there is research that I refuse to cite that proves that catchers do not hit better when they move to a new position. Joe Mauer transcends science, research, stats, nerds, Nerds, and my inability to quickly find something on Google.
     
    Prediction #10 - Chris Colabello will hit more home runs for the Twins than Josh Willingham
     
    Yeah, that's right, I'm going bold! I actually think Willingham will bounce back to an extent, but I don't think he gets through the year on the Twins, at least not as a successful player. If he does find his power stroke, he becomes trade bait. If he doesn't find his power stroke, he won't hit home runs. It's simple as that.
     
    Colabello has been one of the Twins' best hitters during Spring Training and he earned a spot on the team last summer with a great AAA season. Jason Kubel has been disappointing this Spring (if you expected anything from him) and I can see no reason to believe that he'll be able to keep his roster spot for the entire season. That leaves Colabello as the Twins' DH and I think he'll hit 20-25 home runs, more than Willingham will have time to hit in his 4-5 months on the team.
     
    I don't even care if Colabello is sent to AAA to start the season (he still hasn't technically made the team). He'll force his way onto the MLB roster just like he did last season. He's really big. Like, strong big.
     
    Prediction #11 - The Twins will win at least 75 games
     
    EVEN BOLDER! A nine-win improvement would seem like a bounty of wins for this win-deprived fan base. However, I think the Twins have done enough with their rotation and have enough young players on the upswing to see this kind of improvement in 2014. 75 wins is still probably good for 4th in the Central and the Twins still have more building to do in order to get to an actual exciting win total in the future, but a nine-win improvement is a step in the right direction.
     
    My butt is officially on the line! You're out of order! What do you think of my predictions? I'm going big this year, no holding back. What do you predict for 2014? Are you and I on the same wavelength, or do you see things differently? I have some lemon juice in my eye, so please keep that in mind. See you in the regular season!
     
    If you looooooove predictions, do I have a treat for you. I predicted award winners and league champions, free of charge! Here's the National League and the American League, for the lovers. If you hate predictions, why not read my latest screenplay? Or read about my obsession with a 23-year-old dancing video? If you wrote those things, I'd read them. If you wrote those things, we'd be sharing a brain. Think about it. Take care.
  14. Brad Swanson
    Content originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
    I wrote a preview for each AL Central team this week. The Tigers preview appears in full below this section. If you are interested in the other four teams, just click on the team name below:
     
    1. Tigers
    2. Royals
    3. Indians
    4. Twins
    5. White Sox
     
    That's how I think the teams will finish as well. You can read why if you'd like. Here's my Tigers preview:
     
    The Tigers have won three consecutive AL Central titles and look like the heavy favorites to win their 4th in a row. They have the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner in Max Scherzer. They have the reigning AL MVP and current best hitter in the World in Miguel Cabrera. They have one of the best starters of this generation in Justin Verlander. They have a potent offense, a loaded rotation and a respected front office. However, they have a new manager with an aging roster and they made some questionable moves in the offseason. Some visible cracks are starting to appear. Are they good enough to hold off the rest of the division for at least one more year?
     
    Key Acquisitions
     
    Ian Kinsler, Robbie Ray and Joe Nathan
     
    "Key" Acquisitions
     
    Ronny Paulino, Duane Below, Rajai Davis, and Joba Chamberlain
     
    Notable Losses
     
    Joaquin Benoit, Octavio Dotel, Omar Infante, Brayan Pena, Jhonny Peralta, Darin Downs, Jose Veras, Prince Fielder and Doug Fister
     
    My favorite offseason move?
     
    I guess it was the Kinsler trade. They had to make room for Nick Castellanos and moving him to the outfield would take away one of his biggest assets, his defense at third base. Thus, someone had to move and Fielder was the guy. They saved a bunch of money too.
     
    More importantly, are they better than last year?
     
    I don't think they are. They barely won the division last year and I think they got worse. They traded Doug Fister for players who won't really help in 2014 and they replaced an elite closer with another elite closer, but one who is approaching 40. There's a path to an 81-win season for this team, although I don't think that will happen.
     
    Awesome Name from the Organization
     
    Warwick Saupold
     
    Former Twin Alert!
     
    Torii Hunter and Joe Nathan, combined age = 77.
     
    Depth Chart
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]


    C

    Alex Avila

    SP1

    Justin Verlander



    1B

    Miguel Cabrera

    SP2

    Max Scherzer



    2B

    Ian Kinsler

    SP3

    Anibal Sanchez



    3B

    Nick Castellanos

    SP4

    Rick Porcello



    SS

    Eugenio Suarez

    SP5

    Drew Smyly



    LF

    Don Kelly

    SU

    Joba Chamberlain



    CF

    Austin Jackson

    SU

    Bruce Rondon



    RF

    Torii Hunter

    CL

    Joe Nathan



    DH

    Victor Martinez

    [/TD][TD]

    [/TABLE]
     
    Lineup
     
    The Tigers have an excellent lineup. Baseball Prospectus' PECOTA projections has their lineup projected for the fourth most runs in the American League. Fourth, huh? I would have thought higher without looking. Pecota has the Tigers projected for roughly 50 more runs scored than the Twins, which seems really low. The Tigers scored 182 more runs than the Twins in 2013. It doesn't really add up.
     
    Then, I look at their lineup and I can see why BP would be just a bit skeptical. Prince Fielder is gone. Ian Kinsler may be a better overall player due to speed, body type, position and defense, but he can't hit like Fielder. Jhonny Peralta is gone, replaced initially by Jose Iglesias and now potentially with Eugenio Suarez. Those two may field better than Peralta but they aren't in his neighborhood on offense. Nick Castellanos is a rookie. Torii Hunter is 38, Victor Martinez is 35 and even Miguel Cabrera is 31. It's possible that their lineup is significantly worse than last year as three of their five best hitters are on different teams.
     
    Defense
     
    The Tigers are clearly putting more emphasis on defense. They traded Prince Fielder to open first base for Miguel Cabrera. That helps their defense. They plan to use Nick Castellanos at third. That helps their defense. They had intended to use Jose Iglesias and his weak bat at short. That would have helped their defense but he has major shin splints and will miss a bunch of time. Now, an unproven rookie with good, but not great defensive skills will play short. Ian Kinsler is just ok. Torii Hunter is a shell of his former defensive self. Austin Jackson and Alex Avila do a fine job, but they aren't plusses. They addressed their defense, but bad luck and older players may undermine everything.
     
    Rotation
     
    There is no way to spin the Tigers' rotation in a negative direction, right? They have the reigning AL Cy Young Award winner (Max Scherzer), another worthy candidate from 2013 (Anibal Sanchez) and one of the best starters from the past decade (Justin Verlander). However, they did trade away a fourth good starter (Doug Fister) to free up money to spend on a closer (more on that later).
     
    Drew Smyly will slide into the rotation in 2013. He's just 25 and has great promise as a left-handed starter. However, he wasn't great in that role in 2012 and he was great as a reliever in 2013. He'll also have to build arm strength as he only threw 76 innings in 2013. Rick Porcello rounds out the rotation and he's a statistical darling who hasn't put it all together just yet. He's an elite ground ball pitcher with a good strikeout rate and a better walk rate. That said, his career ERA is 4.51. He should be better than that, but he hasn't been. Can he be relied upon to finally break out in 2014?
     
    Fister had a 115 ERA+ in 2013. I doubt that Porcello or Smyly achieve that number, which means the rotation could be worse than last year. This does not even address the fact that both Scherzer and Sanchez pitched better than they ever had before in 2013. Will they be able to match their career-best seasons in 2014? Oh, and Justin Verlander's strikeout rate has dropped in each of the past three seasons, while his walk rate has increased.
     
    Bullpen
     
    The Tigers replaced Joaquin Benoit with Joe Nathan. Nathan is four years older, $5 million more expensive and equally productive. Nathan does have a lot more career saves though. Nothing against Nathan, but the perception was that the Tigers traded Fister to free up money to sign Nathan. If that's true, it's a downgrade when you consider everything involved. Bruce Rondon is sitting there, ready to take over as closer. If given the opportunity, he could be at least 80% of Nathan at 5% of the cost. Rondon and Fister or Nathan and Smyly? Which pair would you rather have?
     
    Now consider that the bullpen was weakened with Smyly's move to the rotation. And, that move might not even work. I would try it too, as a 4th starter is more valuable to me than a set-up man, but it's not without risk. The rest of the bullpen is shaky. Phil Coke is a character. Al Alburquerque can be dominant, but he can walk the universe too. The Tigers did sign Joba Chamberlain and he's never been mysterious or inconsistent. Nathan and Rondon are good, so the bullpen can be solid. The cost of building that solid bullpen might have been too high though.
     
    World Series aspirations?
     
    They have them, but I don't see it. I think Boston is better. I think Tampa Bay is better. I think Oakland is better. I think Kansas City might be better. That said, if everything clicks, they could easily compete for the World Series in 2014. Their top three starters are as good as any top three in the Majors and Miguel Cabrera is still in his prime.
     
    Can the Twins finish ahead of them?
     
    It would be very unlikely and require a massive collapse from the Tigers' older players. The Twins can't match up with the Tigers, especially in the rotation, where the Tigers have a massive and almost unfair advantage (from the perspective of a whiny Twins fan). Even if things fall apart for the Tigers in 2014, it would be more relative to their expectations and I doubt they would collapse to the point of a losing season.
     
    Projected AL Central finish - 1st
     
    My head still puts the Tigers at the top of the division. I hold no ill-will toward the Tigers. I watched them lose 119 games in 2003 and their fans deserve some success after such a pathetic stretch of seasons. There's just something about this team that I don't like. In past years, it has been their defense. While they have addressed their defense, they've mostly gone from bad to not bad and I'm not sure that's enough. Their offense is slightly worse and their rotation isn't the lock that it appears to be. Their bullpen is just fine and they don't have a lot in the system to fill needs as they arise. The Royals are a legitimate threat to the Tigers in 2014 and Father Time is a legitimate threat to the Tigers in 2015 and going forward.
  15. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    My wife is a colorful character. Seriously, here is a picture of her:
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-noPQ18WsoV4/UxkqHGlBFwI/AAAAAAAABSQ/oyQLjr2n_l4/s1600/dora_the_explorer_31709-200x316.jpg
    No, wait, that's Dora the Explorer. My wife does have a lot of pizazz and a curious nature though. Why not put her inquisitive nature to good use? I thought, "hey, I can get a blog post out of this." If nothing else, this will be give you wonderful insight into her thoughts/our marriage/my transcription skills. These are real questions, I assure you.
     
    By the way, I asked for questions related to the new season and I have no clue what she will ask as of the time I am typing this sentence.
     
    Q: Who is going to have a baby during the season?
     
    Like a player or just anyone in the World? If anyone in the World, I'll say lots of people. If you're referring to a current Twins player, let me do a crude Google search really quick. Nothing. Well shoot. It won't be Joe Mauer as his wife just had twins and I'm sure they are cool for now. Wait, I have another Google idea. IS JOE MAUER THE ONLY PLAYER ON THE TWINS? Google is failing me. I'll just throw a dart and say Kyle Gibson. He's like 26, so sure.
     
    Note - Gibson's wife literally just had a baby earlier this week. This proves two things - 1. I don't Google well. 2. I don't pay attention to anything.
    Q: Ok, this one requires a link. The link. My question is are you kidding me, the food in the stadium isn't that great...
     
    So, I guess the question is are you kidding me? And my answer is no, I'm not kidding you. However, I completely agree with you. The notion that Target Field has this amazing cuisine is a very overrated notion. Most of the food at Target Field is pretty mediocre. I much prefer a Dome Dog to whatever hog parts are in the hot dogs at Target Field. Some of the specialty food is good, but it's not good enough to justify a food truck. Plus, how are Minnie and Paul going to make delicious food with just a spatula and some mustard. I don't buy it.
     
    Q: Who's on 'roids?
     
    You are obsessed with steroids. You think that everyone is on "'roids." If I put on any weight at all, I'd guess you'd think I was on steroids too. I don't think any Twins player is on steroids because the testing has gotten a lot better. If someone on the Twins is doing steroids, they're doing them wrong.
     
    Q: Will the Twins be any good (like any) this year?
     
    Wait, why is the "like any" part necessary. You're going to tune me out before I finish answering this, but we'll see how far we can get. Yes, I do think the Twins will be "any" good this year. I think their rotation is better and they have guys who will throw enough innings to keep the AAA guys out of the rotation. I think that moving Mauer to first is better for his health and should help him hit well in more games.
     
    You're bored. I can tell. You're texting.
     
    A lot of the young guys will get better and as they get better the team will get better. Some guys won't get better, but those guys are replaceable because the Twins have a lot of young talent ready to take spots from guys who aren't cutting it.
     
    Ok, I lost you. I suppose he does look a little like my brother. I have no idea, maybe sixty?
     
    Follow-up statement - I don't want to wait for talent to develop. I'm all about the here and now.
     
    Q: Will the interviews with "street people" in Dick and Bert's box still be as awkward?
     
    This might need a slight amount of explanation, but we joke about this a lot at home. You know when Dick and Bert have some family or fans in the booth with them and they just sit there awkwardly while Dick and Bert ask them questions? Well, those fans are never mic'd, so you can't really hear their answers. You basically get a one-way conversation that wouldn't be interesting if you actually could hear both ends.
     
    Role play!
     

    Dick: So, I see you brought a sign to cheer for Kevin Correia.
    Fan: (Unintelligible, not on mic)
    Dick: Well, he's not that big.
    Bert: F***

    End scene.
     
    So yes, those interviews will continue to be awkward and it's not the fans' fault.
     
    Q: Mauer at first, your thoughts?
     
    I addressed this earlier, but you weren't listening. I still like it a half hour later. I think that Mauer is too valuable to the lineup to be on the bench for 30-35 games. With his concussion problems, removing some of the risk of another concussion just makes sense to me. He could still get a concussion at first, but it's less likely. I don't expect a power surge or anything like that, but I do think that Mauer will be as steady, consistent and productive as he has always been. Now, he'll just play more games.
     
    Q: Why does the website (note - not sure which website this refers to) list players' DOB instead of age?
     
    Um, I don't know. Maybe they trust your math skills?
     
    Q: Who will be my new BF now that JM is gone?
     
    I'll translate - BF is boyfriend and JM is Justin Morneau. You loved Morneau even though he had that weird forehead. (she nods) Well, we certainly have different taste in men. The only way to do this properly is for me to show you the pictures of the guys I think you might find attractive. Here are a few:
     
    Chris Herrmann? - I feel like you tried to talk me into him before and it's not working.
     
    Brian Dozier? - No. (no additional information provided)
     
    Alex Presley? - Too much facial hair.
     
    It's a shame, I had heard that some found Presley attractive. Plus, he was traded for JM, so it would have made for great symmetry.
     
    Oh well, I guess we'll all just have to stay tuned to this blog to find out who she chooses. It's like the Bachelor, except I've never seen that show.
     
    Q: Another link, this one with a video. The link. Why does "the U" trump the Twins?
     
    So you're upset that the Twins are using a University of Minnesota moving truck?
     
    It's just weird that the pro team is using a college truck. You don't think that's weird at all?
     
    Do you think the Twins should have their own trucks?
     
    Well, it just seems weird. Like, they can't afford it?
     
    If we moved, we might borrow a truck even though we could afford to buy one.
     
    Let's move on.
     
    Final Q: Walk-up songs. What will they be? Which will you like? What would your song be?
     
    That's an excellent question to end with. In my experience, professional athletes have terrible taste in music. They love a lot of radio rock and hip hop and I don't listen to any of that. I did like Trevor Plouffe's "When the Levee Breaks" last year, but I heard he is changing that. He's a Pearl Jam fan, so maybe he'll pick one of their songs and I would respect that.
     
    That means I would like about 1 of 15 walk-up songs. Ooh, I also liked Ryan Doumit's Danzig song, so maybe 2 of 15.
     
    As for what I would use, that really depends which avenue I want to go down. I could pick a song I really like or a song that pumps me up, or both. If that's the case, I'm walking up to "Quick and to the Pointless" by Queens of the Stone Age. I'd really drag out my pre-at bat routine to hear the whole song.
     
    The other route would be to walk up to something silly. A bunch of players walked up to "Call Me Maybe" and songs like those, but that's kind of tired. If you're going the silly route, you have to be original. So, I would walk up to me singing "Love is in the Air."
     
    If you get that last reference, you can be my friend.
     
    And that's the end of this experiment. We had a lot of fun with this, but some of the best moments didn't translate to the page very well. For that reason, we're going to start a podcast, even if we only record it just once. Keep an eye out for that. For now, have a great weekend!
  16. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    If you've been reading my blog for the past few weeks, you are well aware that I have recently become obsessed with Eduardo Escobar. Not in a weird way. I just want to see more of him. Not in a weird way. I think he deserves more playing time. Last year, Escobar received just 179 plate appearances, but also had one of the most memorable plate appearances of the season, when he laced a walk-off double to give the Twins their first win of the 2013 season. That 1/179 exciting moments ratio led the team, I'm quite certain.
     
    Anyway, I think Escobar has something. I see it when I watch him. He just has an "it" factor that makes me want to look even closer. Not in a weird way. I think it's worth finding out if I am correct also. Therefore, I am starting a campaign called "The Eddie 400," at least until someone finds evidence that he hates being called "Eddie." I made a logo and at the end, I'll explain how you can also support this important promotion.
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-azXCFfvNMkQ/Usm7KeSBHyI/AAAAAAAABJY/8SYkgOIX-5E/s1600/Eddie400.jpg
     
    Before that, I want to make sure this is truly something that we all believe in. Therefore, I have come up with a handful of valid reasons to give Eduardo Escobar 400 plate appearances in 2014. Read on!
     
    He's a switch hitter
     
    This guy can bat right-handed and left-handed! How impressive is that! Some guys on this team can barely bat with their dominant hand, much less both. In fact, last year he barely had a platoon split. He hit roughly .270/.333/.430 from both sides of the plate. Most of his damage was done at AAA, but he didn't get regular playing time in the Majors, which is totally not his fault. DON'T LOOK AT HIS MLB SPLITS.
     
    He's always smiling
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-0rBK-1_S0v0/Usm7Smun6vI/AAAAAAAABJg/FgsOxgG1phA/s320/EddieHappy.jpg
     
    See, look at that winning smile! He has an infectious personality, that is apparent. Oh, you're not convinced with one picture. Well, here's a photo collage I made:
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-cTbSA2aNMuo/Usm7ZK7-8kI/AAAAAAAABJo/_Le870ecQ9I/s320/escobarsmilecity.png
     
    See, winning smile. It's prevalent. This guy will make the clubhouse happier. A happy clubhouse is a healthy clubhouse. He won't be that happy playing once a week. No one would be. He certainly can't infuse the clubhouse with smiles from Rochester.
     
    He has defensive versatility
     
    It's not just that Escobar is good at defense, he also plays a lot of positions. He's primarily a shortstop, but he can handle second and third too. He can even serve as an emergency catcher! I'm pretty sure he could play in the outfield too. What versatility!
     
    Brian Dozier is the second baseman, but even he needs a day off here and there. When he does, BAM, enter Escobar. Say 10 games. That's 40ish PAs; we're 10% to 400. Trevor Plouffe needs days off too and he might need some DH time to boot. BAM, more Escobar. Say 25-30 games, 100 PA, and we're nearly halfway there.
     
    Hello Pedro Florimon. I like you. I even wrote about why I like you before last season. Read it! That said, hitting is not your strength and your fielding can be inconsistent. BAM MORE ESCOBAR!! If they simply split roughly 125 games, Escobar would get 60ish, with 200 or so PA and we'd be on the verge of 400 plate appearances. See, Escobar's defensive versatility practically screams for more PT.
     
    He's vibrant
     
    I can feel his charisma from my couch. When he's on the field, he's vibrant. When he's in the dugout, he shines. When he's in the clubhouse, he...well I don't know because I'm not allowed. When he's in Rochester, he's sad. Just look at his face, even after being named player of the week:
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-DZhyAH4AN6Q/Usm7fh-Jm_I/AAAAAAAABJw/KjDMvsvctmA/s320/escobarplayerofweek.jpg
     
    Scroll up and look at the collage again. LOOK AT IT! Which Escobar do you want?
     
    He's young
     
    Escobar will be 25 next season. He's two full years younger than Pedro Florimon. I don't want this to become an indictment of Florimon, but we all know his shortcomings. It's possible that Escobar has similar shortcomings, but he's two years younger so it's at least a bit more likely that he can develop and overcome those shortcomings. You are what you are at 27; the World is your oyster at 25. Think about it.
     
    He's arbitration eligible in 2015
     
    Tick Tock. That's Escobar's free agency clock and it is ticking away dangerously. Escobar has now been on an MLB roster in 3 different years. He has played 125 games. He's out of options and approaching arbitration. If the Twins don't figure out what they have in Escobar this season, they'll never know. I'm not sure they can deal with that kind of regret. Regret is a powerful emotion.
     
    He's popular and beloved
     
    I found an article from Mike Berardino last March that has some really great Escobar-related quotes. I'll just share them without comment.
     
    Twins General Manager Terry Ryan: "He's a pretty good baseball player, it looks like to me," Ryan said. "He's got some energy. He can steal a base. He's all right."
     
    Former Twins reliever Luis Perdomo: "I don't like snakes, but I like Escobar," Perdomo says. "He's a pretty good guy, a funny guy. He's happy all the time, never angry."
     
    Also, we find out in that article that Escobar is close friends with the Guillen family. BONUS POINTS!
     
    Here are some quotes from another article, this one from ESPN, after Escobar was traded to the Twins:
     
    White Sox DH Adam Dunn: “He’s such a good kid,” Adam Dunn said. “He’s such a good part of this team. He keeps everybody loose and we really enjoyed having him. He’s a lot of fun. They’re going to really enjoy him over there.”
     
    White Sox OF Jordan Danks: “He’s definitely going to be missed,” Jordan Danks said. “When I first signed in ’08, he and I came up together so I’ve played with him pretty much at every level. He’s the same guy that I met whenever I first signed. He’ll be sorely missed.”
     
    White Sox Manager Robin Ventura: “I think it’s a little tough in here after a good win like this because Escobar’s a big part of what we’ve been doing,” Robin Ventura said. “It’s more than just numbers and how you play, it’s the attitude he brings. It’s a tough one team-wise. He’s kind of like a little brother or a son to most guys.
     
    The Twins love him too, remember the "C'mon" story? Here's the Berardino article and I'll just give you one Gardenhire quote for free: "I don't know what he says half the time, but I love him," Gardenhire said Sunday. "He just entertains me. He's one of the happiest guys I've ever seen at the ballpark. Always smiling, always laughing."
     
    Everyone loves this guy, now let's let him play some baseball!
     
    Final quote, from the first article and from Escobar himself: "When you're happy, be happy. You get a base hit in the game, be happy. I'm always happy playing."
     
    I love him.
     
    Finally, why not?
     
    Really, what do the Twins have to lose? Games? They've done that already. Plenty. Why not see what they have in the guy they traded Francisco Liriano for? Escobar is billed as a solid, if not better defender. Florimon is a great defender, but could Escobar be better? One thing I know for certain, Escobar is just as likely to post a 68 wRC+ as Florimon did last year. Plus, he's two years younger, has a winning smile, is loved by his teammates and manager, and I already made the logo.
     
    There's simply no downside here. The 2014 Twins aren't making the playoffs, so why not see what they have in Escobar? It's a shark move. The New Terry Ryan that wears a leather jacket makes shark moves. It just makes sense.
     
    Now that you are 100% convinced, you can show your support for "The Eddie 400" in a number of ways.
     

    Get the logo tattooed on your forehead. If not your forehead, your stomach, but then you have to keep your stomach exposed at all times.
    Create leaflets and hand them out to friends, co-workers, and anyone who looks angry on the streets.
    Fly to Venezuela and inform his hometown; gather their support.
    Change your name to "Eduardo Escobar." Purchase business cards.

    If those ideas don't suit you, perhaps you could just download the logo from above and make it your Twitter or Facebook or whatever avatar? Tell your friends about Eddie. Post on the Twins' Facebook wall. Tweet at Dave St. Peter. Do everything humanly possible to create awareness of this important campaign.
     
    Together, we can ensure that Eduardo Escobar gets 400 plate appearances in 2014. I can't do this alone. I need you. Not in a weird way.
  17. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Over the last week or so, I've been investigating the Twins' 40-man roster to try to determine who will contribute to the next good Twins team. I've reached the end of this short journey and will cover the infielders today. However, I did complete this activity in four parts, so if you missed the first three, you can find them here:
     
    Starting Pitchers
    Relief Pitchers
    Catchers/Outfielders
     
    Now that we have hyperlinks out of the way, we can look at the Twins' infielders, ordered from least likely to contribute to most likely to contribute in 2015 (that magical season I am forecasting).
     
    Kennys Vargas
     
    Infield is not the strength of the Twins' 40-man roster. Vargas is known for his strength. Paradox? Nope, just something I thought sounded cool. Vargas was added to the roster to protect him from the Rule 5 draft. Vargas spent his 2013 season with High-A Fort Myers and he showed off his massive power, hitting 19 home runs and slugging .468. Unless Vargas absolutely crushes AA in 2014, I don't see how he plays for the Twins in 2015. Perhaps 2016?
     
    Jorge Polanco
     
    Compared to Vargas, Polanco is ever so slightly more likely to be playing for the Twins in 2015, mostly because he could man a middle infield position and possibly fill a utility role. I don't think that scenario plays out though. Polanco could be the Twins' second baseman of the future, but I'd say that future is more than two years away and his career won't be starting in 2015 at the age of 21 or 22.
     
    Chris Colabello
     
    Well, the Twins tried to sell him to Korea, so that's probably not a great sign for his long-term future with the organization. Colabello was a really nice story in 2013, going from Independent Ball to AAA legend to the Majors. He struggled mightily against MLB pitching, striking out in nearly a third of his plate appearances and posting a shoddy .194/.287/.344 line. Colabello has massive right-handed power, which should play well at Target Field. However, he doesn't have pull power and the home runs don't really fly out of the park to center and right unless they're hit by Jim Thome. Plus, Joe Mauer now occupies the only position Colabello can effectively play. Unless Colabello adjusts to his field and to MLB pitching, he won't be much more than a bench bat and I'm not sure it will be the Twins' bench by 2015.
     
    Danny Santana
     
    Santana could be on the active roster in 2015. He'll be 24 and will have had AA and probably AAA experience. He might even get a 2014 September call-up if all goes well. Santana had a quietly effective offensive season with New Britain in 2013. He hit .297/.333/.386 with 22 doubles, 10 triples and 30 stolen bases. He also made 32 errors at short, and I can't remember a time when the Twins have consistently used a shortstop who was that error-prone. That said, Santana reportedly has the skills for short and could provide better offense than Pedro Florimon or Eduardo Escobar by 2015. I think he'll be on the team, but I'm not sure he'll be starting just yet.
     
    Pedro Florimon
     
    The Twins have given Florimon 596 plate appearances over the past two seasons, about 595 more than I figured he would receive. That said, Florimon has been a good defender at short and provided some speed when he actually hit the ball. He wasn't a complete disaster, posting a 70 OPS+. By WAR, he was one of the Twins' three best players in the first half. He was pretty brutal in the second half and he might not be better than other options on the roster (see below). He's 27 now and approaching arbitration. I imagine he'll be with the team in 2015, but I would wager that he'll be a utility player by then.
     
    Trevor Plouffe
     
    The Twins seem to value Plouffe's versatility. He's a third baseman, but he can play a corner outfield spot as well. I like versatility too, but I also like performance. If you take Plouffe's crazy June/July of 2012 out of the equation, he's a roughly 90 OPS+ third baseman with a nice (but somewhat inaccurate) arm and little range. He also cannot hit right-handed pitching, hitting .227/.284/.382 in his career. His best offensive tool (power) doesn't even apply against the much more common arm-side pitching. With his shaky defense, I don't think the Twins can properly exploit his potential defensive versatility. In fact, I'd prefer to see more of another young player at third in 2014...
     
    Eduardo Escobar
     
    Escobar might be that better option than Florimon and/or a decent platoon-mate for Plouffe. I look at his numbers next to Florimon's numbers and I see very similar players. Low contact, a few walks, good speed, but not on-base enough to utilize it, good glove and the ability to play a couple positions. Escobar is two years younger and might be a better defender. Even if he can't unseat Florimon for the shortstop job, he should provide enough value as a guy who can play all infield position to keep his job while cheap. If Plouffe doesn't improve offensively, I'd give Escobar some starts at third as well. At least Escobar will play great defense. Escobar will be cheap in 2015, even though he'll be arbitration-eligible. I hope he gets a longer look; I like him.
     
    Brian Dozier
     
    Dozier is probably one of three sure bets for 2015, with Oswaldo Arcia and the new first baseman. In 2013, Dozier reclaimed his lost plate discipline, but also traded a few strikeouts for more power. He hit more fly balls and finished 2013 with 18 home runs. His defense was much better at second and he finished the season with 2.8 fWAR, good for 8th among all qualifying MLB second basemen. However, Dozier was very up and down in 2013, and this chart proves it:
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]


    [/TD][TD]OPS+


    K%

    BB%

    BB/K

    BABIP

    LD%

    GB%

    FB%

    HR

    HR/FB



    April

    71

    17.7

    7.6

    0.43

    0.280

    22.8

    36.8

    40.4

    0

    0



    May

    42

    23.6

    3.4

    0.14

    0.276

    14.5

    51.6

    33.9

    2

    9.5



    June

    152

    15.4

    16.5

    1.07

    0.364

    20.0

    36.7

    43.3

    5

    19.2



    July

    101

    17.1

    5.7

    0.33

    0.252

    25.0

    32.9

    42.1

    2

    6.3



    August

    139

    19.9

    7.8

    0.39

    0.347

    24.8

    30.7

    44.6

    6

    13.3



    Sept/Oct

    93

    21.2

    8.5

    0.40

    0.255

    15.9

    42.7

    41.5

    3

    8.8

    [/TABLE]
     
    Dozier's best month appears to be June, when he started his breakout. He did some things really well in June, including striking out at the lowest rate he posted in any month and nearly doubling his season walk rate. He also had a really high .364 BABIP and an equally high 19.2 home run to fly ball ratio. I actually like what I see in August a little more. He had less luck with fly balls going over the fence and a slightly lower BABIP. He also walked at a rate more in line with his season average, which seems a lot more sustainable than a giant one-month spike.
     
    The plate discipline he showed in every month other than May should keep his performance at the level we grew accustomed to from June on. His home run total might have been a bit of a fluke though. I'd guess he'd settle more in the 10-15 range going forward, which is still very valuable at second base. Even in his best months, he never hit above .260. However, if he can walk about 8-10% of the time and provide a little pop, he could settle in around .250/.320/.430, which would be great and pretty similar to his overall numbers in the second half of 2013. He won't be arbitration eligible until 2016, so he'll definitely be around in 2015.
     
    Monthly samples are pretty small, so this is all pretty futile. I'm just going to predict 45 home runs and be done with it.
     
    Joe Mauer
     
    I could be all sensational, say that Mauer is cooked and that he won't provide any value as a first baseman, but I wouldn't believe it. Mauer is an excellent hitter and that won't change at a different position. Mauer may not be a traditional number 3 hitter, but batting order is largely overrated anyway. Mauer makes outs at one of the lowest rates in the Majors today. Avoiding outs helps the team win and there's absolutely no reason to think that Mauer will lose that skill anytime soon. He's a lock.
     
    There we have it, an entire tour of the Twins' 40-man roster. The Twins have some really great pieces already on the roster. They will add a few next off-season and add a few from their own farm system. Also, some will come out of nowhere, surprising everyone with their contributions. I fully expect the 2015 Twins to be good. How good depends a lot on the 40 men who occupy the Twins' roster. Thanks for reading, everyone!
  18. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    My one resolution for 2014 is to answer more fake questions. If someone (me) is going to go to the trouble of asking a question, the least I can do is answer it. In addition, I'm going to answer the really tough questions that others are too scared to tackle. In fact, 2014 is the year of answering the tough questions. I won't be afraid of what the answers reveal. I intend to get to know myself better through this exercise. It's going to be quite cathartic and important, really. Most importantly, we need to get off on the right foot with a really important question.
     
    What type of food is each Twins player?
    ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    We're off! I'll flesh this out in more detail in the future. I might even devote a full post to it and possibly create some stupid photoshops. That said, I'll provide some of the easier answers:
     

    Joe Mauer: Wonder Bread. Kind of goes without saying.
    Brian Dozier: Penne Arrabiata. Spicy, good-looking, complex, yet traditional and non-threatening.
    Glen Perkins: Tremendous Twelve. Just outstanding, lots of variety, affordable, very filling.
    Mike Pelfrey: Burnt Popcorn. Some people actually like it; the result of taking too much time.
    Sam Deduno: McRib. Bounces between available and not available, saucy, incites excitement, makes some people crazy, not really very good.

    Hi-yo. What do you think the lineup will look like at the beginning of next season? How about 2015? Thanks, I'm a huge man.
    ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    That's a very excellent and timely question. It's possible that the Twins could still add one more position player who could weasel his way into the starting lineup. Of course, I'm not sure the Opening Day lineup will change much, as our current skipper tends to err on the side of sentimentality/tradition. Therefore, here is what I expect in 2014:
     
    Alex Presley, CF
    Brian Dozier, 2B
    Joe Mauer, 1B (still looks weird)
    Josh Willingham, LF
    Oswaldo Arcia, RF
    Trevor Plouffe, 3B
    Josmil Pinto, DH
    Kurt Suzuki, C
    Pedro Florimon, SS
     
    Nothing shocking, and I could see Plouffe hitting ahead of Arcia for those sentimental reasons. Pinto and Suzuki are in the lineup because I think the Twins like Pinto's bat, but won't trust his defense initially. Florimon's there, but I don't think he'll be there for long (more on that later). Presley should hold off Aaron Hicks for a couple months, but I expect Hicks to tear up AAA because I am very irrational about him. As for 2015, I foresee a couple of changes:
     
    Aaron Hicks, CF
    Brian Dozier, 2B
    Joe Mauer, 1B
    Oswaldo Arcia, LF
    Miguel Sano, 3B
    Josmil Pinto, C
    Trevor Plouffe, DH
    Alex Presley, RF
    Eduardo Escobar, SS
     
    Obviously, I prefer Escobar to Florimon, Hicks to Presley and Sano to Plouffe. Unless the Twins sign some free agents, these are the guys who should be on the Opening Day roster in 2015. I believe Sano will be ready but Byron Buxton will be a midseason entry. Sano is a better defender than Plouffe and Hicks has better range than Presley (Hicks has a vastly superior RF arm too, but range > arm). If Eddie Rosario plays like gangbusters upon return from his suspension (and plays in the outfield), he could supplant Presley, but I don't see that happening.
     
    Which player do you want to see more of in '14?
    ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Take a look at my starting shortstop in 2015. I want to see much more of Eduardo Escobar next season. In fact, I'm starting "The Eddie 400" and I won't stop writing/talking about it until it is apparent that Escobar has no chance of getting 400 at bats. I would love to see Escobar get 400 at bats next season. I'm not really sure that he's good, but I am quite certain that he can hit at least as well as Pedro Florimon. Plus, he's two years younger and might be an even better defender. Even if the Twins are happy with Florimon, I'd love to see Escobar get some starts at 3rd and enhance the team defense.
     
    http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-qRLvRxtVGkQ/UsRbLXXnkjI/AAAAAAAABIM/3jIinF24APY/s1600/Eddie400.jpg
    Next week, I plan to fully outline "The Eddie 400." I'll outline all of the reasons why I'm smitten with Mr. Escobar. I just really hope that someone calls him "Eddie" or this whole thing is quite loony.
     
    There are rumors that the Twins are interested in Johan Santana. How does that make you feel?
    ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-t1cintWWhpk/UsRbV8m-y9I/AAAAAAAABIU/ipcUiuYdfbs/s320/Ron-Swanson-Dance.gif
     
    Don't ruin my New Year, Twins. Make this happen.
     
    What is the core of the Twins team?
    ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    The core has to contain the players who will lead the team to glory. Guys like Brian Dozier and Glen Perkins are great and nice and super, but they aren't really core players. Dozier is good, but not great. Perkins is great, but fills a role that can be filled much more easily than other roles. So, the Twins core is Joe Mauer, Oswaldo Arcia, Miguel Sano, Bryon Buxton and Alex Meyer.
     
    Obviously, only two of those players have MLB experience. There is a lot riding on Buxton, Sano and Meyer. If all three reach their ceilings, the Twins will have an insane core. If two of three pan out, the core will still be great. Perish the thought, but if all three crap out, well...let's just not think that way. That core is excellent, but one more pitcher would be nice. I'm actively wooing Masahiro Tanaka in my weekly POWER RANKINGS. Check out my Rankin's here. Tanaka would be a nice sixth in that core.
     
    What's your Pelfrey problem?
    ~ Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Ah, nothing really. He seems very nice and he'll be great at the back of the rotation. Calling him burnt popcorn will be my final jab at Pelfrey. At least until he starts pitching. Then, I might have to start in on him, just to pass the time between pitches.
     
    Have a great weekend, everyone!
  19. Brad Swanson

    I like Phil Hughes

    By Brad Swanson,

    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Where were you when the Twins became a completely different franchise? In the last 72 hours or so, the Twins have doled out $73 million in long-term contracts, surpassing their previous off-season record by nearly $300 billion dollars (if you believe some fans). On Wednesday, the Twins signed Ricky Nolasco to a four-year deal, and tonight, they added former Yankee Phil Hughes to an increasingly (and suddenly) talented starting rotation. Hughes will earn $8 million for the next three seasons, earning a longer contract than many experts had predicted.
     
    The Twins have to bank on a change of scenery transforming Hughes into a completely different pitcher. Over the course of his career, Hughes has been an extreme fly ball pitcher in a park that is probably smaller than the park in your neighborhood. As such, he has been very home run-prone, averaging 1.29 home runs per nine innings in his career. The move to Target Field could help suppress those home runs.
     
    Park Factor stats compare the rate of stats at home vs. the rate of stats on the road. For home runs in 2013, Yankee Stadium had a 9th-best HR Park Factor of 1.128, greatly favoring hitters. The HR Park Factor at Target Field in 2013 was 0.802, 27th in the league. The great thing about this normalized stat is that it takes out the types of players each team has, so the fact that the Twins don't hit a lot of home runs as a team is factored in. This seems to indicate that Hughes' biggest bug-a-boo could be neutralized to some extent. Although, extreme fly ball pitchers will always be somewhat more home run-prone, by definition.
     
    Hughes might be classified incorrectly as a strikeout pitcher. His career rate of 19.7% is slightly above average, but also just slightly higher than Scott Baker's 19.1% rate. That said, Hughes does throw hard. He consistently sits 92-93 with his fastball and can touch 95. He has a low-80s slider that he has developed over the years and uses as an out pitch. He had a 31.3% strikeout rate with that pitch in 2013. His fastball was crushed for a .917 OPS last season, but the home ballpark change and crazy high fastball BABIP of .337 would point toward improvement with that pitch in coming years.
     
    His split stats are encouraging as well. He doesn't really have a noticeable platoon split, as his career OPS against lefties is .760 and his career OPS against righties is .743. His walk rate and strikeout rate are better against righties, although his rates against lefties are not bad either. He actually allows home runs at a higher rate against right-handed batters, which you might not have guessed. Moving to Target Field won't help that final rate much, but the rest of the stats are encouraging.
     
    His home/road splits really catch the eye. His career ERA at home is 4.96 and his career ERA on the road is 4.10. At home versus lefties, he surrenders a .831 OPS, basically equivalent to facing Hunter Pence in every at-bat. In contrast, lefties had an OPS of just .681 on the road, or an entire lineup of Brandon Crawfords. Against righties, Hughes gave up an OPS of .781 at home and an OPS of .700 on the road. All of these splits were even worse last year, and he still had an xFIP of 4.35. Target Field won't fix everything, but New Yankee Stadium was not doing Hughes any favors.
     
    Hughes will always give up his share of home runs. All fly ball pitchers do. However, with his good strikeout rate, better-than-good walk rate, and good raw stuff, it is conceivable that Hughes could greatly improve his performance with the Twins. Add in the fact that he'll be just 30 when this very reasonable contract ends, and you get a shark move from a GM who has never been described as any sort of vicious predator animal.
     
    In my free agent starting pitcher preview, I wrote the following:
     
    Who will the Twins actually sign? I have no clue. I hope they are shockingly active. I'd love to see Garza, Johnson and Arroyo on this team next year. How wild would that be? Terry Ryan shows up at Spring Training with an earring. He starts calling everyone "playa." Constant Finger Guns. It would be amazing. Make it happen, TR.
     
    I had the wrong names, but the level of activity matches. I hope the Twins beat writers can get used to being called "playa." Blow the smoke off those finger guns, TR. In fact, why not reload those babies and sign a catcher next? Why stop there? Bronson Arroyo is still available. Scott Kazmir isn't going to get a larger deal than Hughes and the Twins still have money to spend. If that happens, you can expect to see Terry Ryan in a leather jacket all summer long, no matter how hot it gets. Ray-Bans too.
     
    Personally, I'm basking in the glow of a Twins team that is actually committed to getting better. I'm getting excited to an uncontrollable point. You can analyze the talent of Nolasco and Hughes until sundown. In fact, both guys might completely flame out next year. What you can't say any longer is that the Twins won't spend money to win baseball games. They just sunk $73 million into the rotation and greatly improved the team in the process. I'm starting to think this team could win 75-80 games next year. I need to sit down. Wait, I am sitting down. I need to lie down. It's all just too exciting.
  20. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    Yesterday, I started to delve into starting pitchers who I want the Twins to target in potential trades. I outlined five starters, three from the Cincinnati Reds. If you missed it, click here. Today, I have five more pitchers for you, free of charge! There are two legitimate "aces" on this list and both are almost certainly pipe dreams. That being said, it's fun to aim high. I hope the Twins aim high, because I'd love to be surprised by my favorite team.
     
    Rick Porcello - Age 25 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016
     
    If the Twins trade for Porcello, we could officially start the tally on who says "Por-cello" and who says "Por-chello." Personally, I say "Por-ceyo" in honor of the Spanish language. Regardless of how you incorrectly say his name, Porcello might represent the best buying opportunity of the ten players I am outlining. Porcello reached the Majors at age 20 and he's more than held his own since then. His career 4.51 ERA isn't dynamic, but he's just 24. He's averaged 174 innings in those five seasons and given up a ton of hits, leading the league in that category in 2012.
     
    Why is Porcello worth buying? He's got a great curveball and an improving primary fastball. He's finally getting some strikeouts with the former pitch, almost doubling his strikeout rate using that pitch since 2009. His curve is dynamic and his control is outstanding. His career walk rate is 6%, compared with 2013's AL average of 8%. Porcello gets mad ground balls, posting a career rate of 52.8% and a career-high rate of 55.3% in 2013. The most compelling stat is Porcello's 19.3% strikeout rate in 2013, nearly six points higher than any other year in his career. Add up his sparkling walk rate, extreme ground ball tendencies and improving strikeout rate and you get a 3.19 xFIP in 2013. Outstanding!
     
    Porcello will be 25 in December. He won't be a free agent until 2016 and a trade followed by a long-term extension would be an excellent move by the Twins. He's good right now and I think he's going to get better. This is the lowest his value is going to be. Now is the time to buy.
     
    David Price - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016
     
    David Price is really good. It's going to take a lot to get him though. I imagine the Rays don't budge unless Byron Buxton or Miguel Sano are included in a deal. Even if the Twins can talk them out of those stud prospects, the Rays would ask for Alex Meyer or Kohl Stewart and then what's the real point? Price is almost certainly worth those prospects (maybe not Buxton, but even that is worth arguing). He's one of the best pitchers in baseball. His strikeout rate dipped in 2013, but his walk rate plummeted. His ground ball rate in 2013 reverted to his pre-2012 levels and he also missed time with a triceps injury.
     
    I love the player, but I don't love him as a trade target. He's too expensive in all ways. He'd cost a blue chip prospect and then hundreds of millions of dollars in payroll-tightening money. Price is great, but I'd still pass.
     
    Jeff Samardzija - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016
     
    Samardzija really harnessed his control in 2012 and transformed into a nice pitcher. If you watched him early in his career, you likely would have never seen him coming. In 61 2012-13 starts, Samardzija has a strikeout rate around 24% (20% is NL average), a walk rate around 8% (just about NL average) and an xFIP of about 3.40. His 2013 season wasn't as pretty as his 2012 season, but he did throw nearly 40 more innings and had a slight jump in BABIP to go with a slight decrease in his strand rate. He throws hard too. His fastball sits 94 and touches 98. His slider is nasty too. I like Samardzija as a trade target, especially because I think he would be cheaper than just about anyone else on this list.
     
    Max Scherzer - Age 29 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2015
     
    Oh man, I wish I had written this last off-season and I wish I had known that Scherzer was going to blossom into a Cy Young winner. It was all legit too. He's harnessed his command and gotten his walk rate below AL average. He's still throws really hard. He still racks up strikeouts. He still has two different colored eyes. His 2013 was just a touch lucky (.259 BABIP), but Scherzer is still a really good Ace-ish starting pitcher, who is still only 29. Of course he'll be a free agent next Winter and if the Twins were to make a trade for him, they would absolutely have to have an extension in place. The Tigers' asking price will likely be similar to the Rays' asking price for Price.
     
    Much like Price, I love the pitcher but I don't feel good about the cost. His fly ball tendencies would play nicely at Target Field though. Man, he's good. Maybe the Twins can scoop him up as a free agent in November of 2014.
     
    Jordan Zimmermann - Age 28 in 2014, arbitration eligible until 2016
     
    Zimmermann fits the Twins' profile a bit better than the other guys on this list. He really limits walks. His career rate is 5.4% and his 4.6% rate was 8th best in the NL in 2013. He doesn't rack up strikeouts, but he usually settles in right around league-average. His ground ball rate is trending upwards and his innings pitched have increased in each of the last three seasons, hitting 213.1 in 2013. Unlike most Twins pitchers, Zimmermann throws a baseball very hard. His fastball sits 93-94 and touches 97. He also has an effective slider, curve and change. His deep arsenal and great command are very enticing. I'm not sure Washington can keep Zimmermann if they have any interest in keeping Bryce Harper and Stephen Strasburg. If that's true, the Twins could land a very good number 2 starter if the right trade is proposed.
     
    Speaking of the right trade, who would you give up to get these guys? I know that I would prefer to keep all of the Twins' consensus top four prospects - Buxton, Sano, Meyer and Stewart. If the Twins call around to these teams and find that they all want one of those guys, then I'd start pursuing potential free agents even more aggressively. If the Twins can add two quality starting pitchers this off-season, they can transform the team. If they can pull this massive feat off, look at the potential starting rotation in 2015:
     
    Homer Bailey
    Matt Garza
    Alex Meyer
    Kyle Gibson
    Kevin Slowey
     
    That last one might be a joke, but if your first four are as good as those four, then your fifth starter could be just about anyone. I honestly think that rotation could be acquired for about $30-35 million per season and a couple of good prospects. Suddenly, the Twins have a ton of young starting pitching in the low Minors. If the Reds wanted someone like Jose Berrios (plus more, Bailey is really good), you'd have to make that deal. Isn't the goal with prospects to grow a guy like Bailey? Bailey's grown. You can get him if you give up some of your depth. If the Reds wanted Berrios, Eddie Rosario and a young starter at Rookie ball, I'd say "yes, please send me your awesome pitcher, I'd like to have him now."
     
    Note: Obviously, the Rosario suspension news throws a bit of a wrench into this plan. However, he's going to be suspended 50 games, not imprisoned for life.
     
    These names are all just examples, so please don't yell at me. I don't know if that would be a trade the Reds or Twins would make. I don't know how many of the teams who hold these pitchers are interested in what the Twins could sell. I do know that the rate of prospect success is pretty low. I also know that good MLB players typically remain good. The Twins have a surplus of prospects and a deficit of quality, MLB starting pitchers. It seems like a logical trade-off. Otherwise:
     
    "You always talk about future, future. ... But if you only worry about the future, then I guess a lot of us won't be part of it."
     
    That's right Johan, but in this case, the "us" would be Joe Mauer, Glen Perkins, and Kevin Correia (joking). If the Twins really aren't careful, the "us" could be Byron Buxton and Miguel Sano. They have to address MLB starting pitching at some point. The time is now. Chant with me:
     
    BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY! BUY!
  21. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    State of the Team
    1994 Record: 53-60, 4th in the BRAND NEW AL Central
    1994 Overview: STEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE-RIKE!
    1995 Outlook: Will there be a season? If so, where will Shane Mack be?
     
    Players Lost - Free Agency
     
    The seeds for the 1994 off-season were planted in 1993 when the (at the time) current collective bargaining agreement expired without a new agreement. A strike was a legit possibility and looked more and more likely as the 1994 season continued. On August 12, 1994, the strike began. On September 14, 1994, Commissioner Bud Selig cancelled the rest of the season and the playoffs/World Series. He was World Serious.
     
    So, the 1994 off-season was super weird. No one was really sure how long the strike would last and some players retired and some left for other baseball pursuits. Kent Hrbek retired, which sucked. Shane Mack left for Japan, which sucked. The Twins lost two of their four best offensive players and they really weren't very good before that.
     
    Welcome to the Scott Stahoviak era! Don't get too comfortable.
     
    The Twins also lost Jim Deshaies and Rich Garces. Deshaies was a dishaster and Garces was a failed prospect who had a four-season stretch of effective pitching about four years later.
     
    Players Gained - Free Agency
     
    The Twins didn't really sign anyone of note, although they did sign some players who I had heard of. First, the Twins brought in Kevin Maas, likely in an effort to replace some of the power that was retiring/leaving. Maas didn't play in the Majors in 1994 and really, he barely played in 1995. He made it through 22 games before being cut loose and signing a Minor League deal to return to the Yankees. He never reached the Bigs again.
     
    They also signed Greg Harris, a starter who had some relative success earlier in his career. Harris threw 32.2 innings, posted a dope 8.82 ERA and was gone by August. He will be forever remembered by me like this:
     
    http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-KIGn8LoXers/UmqcpXrwXEI/AAAAAAAABEg/y8e1cqXbzR8/s320/greg+harris+card.jpg
     
    Jerald Clark was another '94-absent player, although he actually produced for the Twins in 1995. He hit .339/.354/.550 in 113 plate appearances. He hurt his knee in mid-June and never played MLB baseball again.
     
    Finally, the Twins signed Riccardo Ingram, who had 10 plate appearances in 1995 but will be best remembered for having a cool name.
     
    TRADEZ!
     
    The strike brought one of the weirdest trades in MLB history and one that would have literally made the Twins Daily forums explode with vicious and delicious rage. Dave Winfield was traded on August 31, for a player to be named later. When the season was cancelled, there was no real reason to complete the trade. So, some executives from the Indians took some executives from the Twins out to dinner and paid the bill. AT THE HENNEPIN COUNTY TAXPAYERS EXPENSE, probably.
     
    Biggest Splash
     
    The Twins claimed Rich Robertson off of waivers from the Pirates. In 1995, he threw 51.2 innings and had a 3.83 ERA. Not bad! However, as we learned from American Beauty: look closer. He walked over 5 batters per nine innings and he barely struck out more than 6 batters per nine innings. Not surprisingly, Robertson was a train wreck of an earthquake of a disaster in 1996 and 1997, starting 57 awful games and posting an ERA around 5.5. Ah, the mid-90s.
     
    Biggest Miss
     
    Shane Mack left for Japan after the 1994 season. He likely made that decision at least partially because of the strike. I have no idea if the Twins tried to keep them or if they were allowed to try to keep him, but it would have been great if he had stayed.
     
    My Own Personal Heartbreak
     
    Back to Mack. I retroactively loved Shane Mack. I didn't appreciate him as a kid because I was Team Kirby and Mack was like his second fiddle. I should have made room in my heart for Kirby Puckett and Shane Mack, but that is my regret. I'll work it out in shock therapy. Had Mack stayed with the Twins for even three more seasons, he probably would go down as one of the best Twins of all-time. He was still a very productive player during his two seasons in Japan and he was even still pretty good when he came back to the States in '97 and '98. He dealt with a lot of injuries, but he played well when healthy. It's a shame that the strike stole Shane Mack from us. I blame everyone.
     
    Arbitrary Overall Assessment: F
     
    An F for the Twins and an F for baseball. Seriously, there was no 1994 World Series. I mean, how do things get that bad? Labor strife and management control over employees are historical problems, but we're talking about a professional sport. Millionaires and Billionaires and blah blah blah. I'm just glad that things have been relatively peaceful ever since. Sports strikes are among the most baffling occurrences on Earth, at least to me. I understand crop circles better. I understand Sasquatch sightings better. I understand Matthew McConaughey better.
     
    The Twins get an F, but I'm not sure what more they could have done differently. The strike sucked, to state the obvious.
     
    Next week, we'll look at the 1995 off-season. See you then!
  22. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed! If you really like reviews, I did two 2013 fun stats reviews as well: Hitters. Pitchers. Fun!
     
    The 2013 regular season has ended. The AL Central has produced a team that has made it to at least the ALCS. In addition, the Indians made the Wild Card game and the Royals had a pretty decent season. The Twins and White Sox battled heroically for last place, with the White Sox emerging victorious.
     
    Prior to the season, I did some predictin'. I looked at each of the AL Central teams' offseason moves and came to some wild & crazy kids conclusions. When I started this blog a little over a year ago, I had one thing in mind: accountability. I wanted to have a record of all the stupid and sometimes (rarely) insightful things that pop into my mind on a given day. Who better to call myself out than me? I know me really well.
     
    BTW, I predicted the following order before the season:
     
    [TABLE=class: grid, width: 500]


    Preview Predicted Order

    Actual Order



    Detroit

    Detroit



    Kansas City

    Cleveland



    Chicago

    Kansas City



    Cleveland

    Minnesota



    Minnesota

    Chicago

    [/TABLE]
     
    I mean, 1/5 is really not that bad.
     
    So, here is the dumbest and most smrt thing that I said about each team during the previews. If you really want to read previews from a season that already happened, here is the Tigers preview with links to the others.
     
    Detroit
     
    Dumb: Phil Coke emerged in the ALCS and could ride his confidence/quirkiness to a successful season. In fact, you could argue that Phil Coke is the Zooey Deschanel of the Tigers.
     
    Ok, I can't say that I really remember what this was in reference to. I think there were a lot of New Girl promos and Phil Coke was a weirdo or something. The successful season part was incorrect. Coke was terrible and injured in 2013. On the plus side, I have gotten a surprising amount of Google traffic from people searching for Zooey Deschanel. Those people must be so confused.
     
    Smrt: Addition by Subtraction - Valverde, who was overrated when he was good and mostly bad last year. Young, as no one in Detroit as to worry that Delmon will run into a dam while chasing a fly ball and flood the whole city.
     
    Ha! Roasted, Delmon. I even drew a picture to commemorate that sick burn:
     
    http://3.bp.blogspot.com/-CTMVUrcHanQ/UYbRLGjl5pI/AAAAAAAAAng/YUmSlPiHwsY/s320/Delmon+Dam.png
     
    Ah, memories. Replacing Young with Torii Hunter was a former Twins upgrade. Valverde was actually brought back early in 2013 due to issues with the Tigers bullpen. He was released after 19.1 hungry innings.
     
    Kansas City
     
    Dumb: Mike Moustakas is solid.
     
    Well, this is just plain inaccurate. Moustakas was the second overall pick back in 2007. After seeing a huge jump in his WAR in 2012 (mostly from defense), he plummeted to negative WAR in 2013. He's only 25 and not arbitration eligible until 2015, but I'd bet the Royals are already looking at potential long-term replacements. His OBP sunk to .287 last season. Yuck; not solid.
     
    Smrt: Their bullpen is crazy talented.
     
    This is accurate. According to Fangraphs, the Kansas City bullpen provided 7.3 WAR, second only to Texas. They had a 2.55 ERA and averaged more than a strikeout per inning. Greg Holland was ludicrous. Luke Hochevar made the transition from albatross starter to extremely effective reliever. Louis Coleman, Tim Collins, Will Smith, Aaron Crow, the list goes on. They were even able to overcome some regression from Kelvin Herrera, who still looks great to me despite a near 4 ERA. Goodness.
     
    Chicago
     
    Dumb: All that being said, there is serious talent on this roster.
     
    Nope, not true. Chris Sale and Addison Reed are talented. Jose Quintana is talented. Alex Rios and Jake Peavy are talented, but were traded. Paul Konerko is talented, but he's old. Alexei Ramirez plays a mean short. Other than that, there isn't a lot of actual talent on the roster. Serious talent was an overstatement. Moderate talent would have been more appropriate, but possibly still too strong.
     
    Smrt: The offense scored runs, but might be worse than in 2012.
     
    I really felt their collapse in my bones. I should have written "will" instead of "might." In the early days of this blog, I wanted to remain non-confrontational. I've emerged as a shock jock and shock jock Brad would have used "will." Regardless, their offense went from 7th in the Majors in 2012 to 29th in 2013. Paul Konerko retired (not really, but figuratively), Alejandro De Aza and Dayan Viciedo regressed, and Alexei Ramirez and Gordon Beckham improved, but were still unimpressive. Adam Dunn lead this offense with a 103 OPS+ and he hit .219. Just awful; and I felt it and I wasn't confident about it. Never again!
     
    Cleveland
     
    Dumb: Bauer is pretty close to MLB ready, so he might even help in 2013.
     
    I had this odd affinity for Trevor Bauer. I guess I just love complex warm-up routines or something. I liked that he had a mix of pitches and I guess I got ahead of myself. Bauer did not help the Indians in 2013. He only made four starts and only lasted through 17 innings in those starts. He walked everyone and didn't fare much better in AAA. A lot of experts think he needs to lose some pitches. I guess he'll have to adapt or die, as they say. I still hold out some long-term hope, but I'm not sure he helps much in 2014.
     
    Smrt: 2013 might not be a playoff season, but the future is fairly bright in Cleveland.
     
    Yes, I was wrong about 2013. However, the bright future part does look pretty smart in hindsight. The Indians were the 5th worst team in baseball in 2012. They traded one of their best offensive players in the off-season. Yet, I thought the moves they made were very impressive. I wrote this before the signed Michael Bourn, although I have to admit that signing would not have made me put them any higher than 3rd in the division. All that being said, their future is bright and I'm not so sure that was the general sentiment around them in February. If nothing else, it is definitely the most intelligent statement in that preview. So that's something.
     
    Your Minnesota Twins
     
    Dumb: Addition by Subtraction – Matt Capps, but only for fan sanity. I still think he has something to give a team.
     
    I was right about the addition by subtraction part. Matt Capps did have something to give a team too! 7 AAA innings. That's it. That's what Matt Capps did last summer. The Indians just re-signed him yesterday and I can't imagine they will get less out of him in 2014. He's still just 30. It's baffling, but he must be one of those guys who's 40 when he's 25. You know, those guys.
     
    Smrt: Honestly, the vast majority of the preview.
     
    I was pretty on point with the Twins going into 2013. I had low expectations, but felt the team had gotten better organizationally. I thought the offense would struggle and the pitching would be basically the same as it had been in 2012. I thought the bullpen was good and I thought that the good players would be good players. The problem was that there weren't a lot of good players on the team. Here is how I ended my preview:
     
    Predicted Division Finish - 5th. Twins fans, it hurts. Three straight last place finishes is on no one’s wish list. However, one more bad season might be it. There are really exciting players coming up through the farm system, and quite a few will be in Minnesota by 2014. If things really click, the 2014 Twins could resemble the 2001 team that put this franchise back on the map after nearly a decade of losing. Don’t lose hope and faith in this franchise. All teams go through this (except the Yankees). If you stick with this team, your patience will pay off.
     
    I still believe all of that. I truly believe that 2014 could be the start of a turnaround. A lot rides on the moves made this off-season and the development of the organization's prospects, but 2014 could be a real turning point. Next off-season, this paragraph could look ridiculous, but I'm not so sure it will. I may be overly optimistic, but I don't think this is a basement-level franchise in the long-term.
     
    I'm excited to write a 2014 preview. The moves made this off-season will dictate whether 2014 is a 2001 or another 2013.
  23. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at Kevin Slowey was Framed!
     
    So, I guess I have to be the one to do this, huh? No one else wants to write this? No one will take the obvious grief that will accompany the following 800 or so words. I guess in some way it makes sense. I do hold the distinction for having the least reliable and most obnoxious Twins blog in the stratosphere (using a word like stratosphere is obnoxious). Although, I am more known for putting Twins player heads on bird bodies and writing about chance encounters with talking pumas, so I can't imagine that anyone comes to this blog for actual Twins roster coverage.
     
    It doesn't really add up. I'm going to do it anyway:
     
    The Twins should sign Robinson Cano.
     
    There, I said it and now no one else has to. All you gutless members of the lamestream media can retreat to your cushy mansions and eat your duck eggs or whatever and I'll do all the controversial "reporting." I'll take the heat; enjoy your cashmere.
     
    Fact: The Twins have the money. With Justin Morneau ($14 million), Nick Blackburn ($5 million), and Mike Pelfrey ($4 million) coming off the books, the Twins have $23 million to spend, not even accounting for the money they were under budget last season. It's estimated that the Twins will have $40-50 million to spend this off-season. If that's the case, they could easily throw $25-30 million at Cano and add an MVP quality bat to the lineup for the next half-decade.
     
    The tough part is convincing Cano to answer a phone call from the Twins, much less signing an actual contract. Therefore, the Twins have to overpay. Here's what I would offer:
     

     
    Austin Powers is 16 years old?!? Yeah baby. Actually, I'd offer 10 years, $300 million.
     
    Now, just calm down for one moment. I'm not crazy and you should keep reading. Here's the case for Cano: He's really freaking good.
     
    I get all the reasons not to sign him: he's going to be 31 in a couple weeks, he's super expensive, the Twins don't really need a second baseman, he doesn't pitch, he smells like Yankees...I just think the positives outweigh the negatives. The Twins would be adding a second perennial MVP candidate to their lineup, along with a premier defensive player.
     
    Let's get back to that phone call I mentioned. What would happen if Terry Ryan called up Cano in a misguided attempt to actually woo him to Minnesota? I think it might go down like this:
     
    Robinson, how are you today, it's Terry Ryan...No Terry Taylor was the Red Rooster, how do you know about that? I'm Terry Ryan, Twins General Manager...Minnesota Twins...It's in the North...You come here every year...Yes, it's cold, but not in the summer...Sure, there are penguins everywhere. Look, we want to offer you a contract to play for the Twins...Yes, we are a baseball team...Joe Mauer...Yeah, sideburns. Listen, we have a what I think is a very fair offer for you. We're building a winner here. We want to add you to a lineup with Mauer, with Miguel Sano, with Byron Buxton. We're going to have a powerful lineup and we want you to be a part of it...No, it's not Canada, just one set of taxes...I mean, some penguins...We can work out the logistics later, but we want to offer you a ten year contract worth a total of $300 million...No, you can live wherever you want, you just have to play here...I have never seen an igloo...Yep, actual houses...Sure, how many penguins?
     
    And so on. Basically, you give in to his demands and you pay him a lofty salary and you get another MVP on this team.
     
    Of course, I can hear it now..."But (sniffle) what about Brian Dooooooooozier (sniffle) (tear)?"
     
    I like Brian Dozier. He's great. His hair is beautiful. However, he's not the type of player that would keep me from looking at someone like Cano. You can still upgrade second base; Dozier isn't the best guy at that position. Plus, are we 100% sure that Dozier can't play short? I thought a lot of his struggles in 2012 were mental, not physical. What if we just move Dozier to short, use Florimon as a super-utility guy and dominate the American League like champs do? Peep this potential lineup (likely around midseason when Buxton and Sano are ready):
     
    Byron Buxton - CF
    Joe Mauer - 1B
    Josh Willingham - DH (if there is a God)
    ROBINSON CANO AND HIS MVPNESS - 2B
    Miguel Sano - 3B
    Oswaldo Arcia - LF
    Brian Dozier - SS
    Josmil Pinto - C
    Aaron Hicks - RF
     
    Hot dog. That lineup is fresh. Now, much of the 2014 season would be played without that lineup, but you could conceivably run that lineup out for the 2015 season, with some other guy in place of Josh Willingham. Perhaps you blow another 30 mil the following off-season on someone.
     
    Another point: You can deal with Mauer's lack of "power" (which isn't even true, he lacks home run power, but still slugs .450ish every year) because you'd get so much power from your second baseman. It's a trade-off, and we all need to learn to make trade-offs.
     
    Logical retort to all of this: Cano doesn't pitch, you dingus.
     
    True. I can't argue with that. I looked very closely at Cano's Baseball Reference page AND his FanGraphs page and I can find no evidence that he is a pitcher. Thus, the Twins' starting pitching would still be a problem. Remember, they're only spending $30 mil on Cano. That still leaves $10-20 mil for a good starter, a decent starter, some snacks and a Playstation 4. Why not grab Cano, add Matt Garza, pick up Scott Feldman and get ready to roll. It's all so simple!
     
    Overpaying for Robinson Cano is not the Twins' way. It would be the single most shocking moment of my life, and I've been struck by lightning four times. It would be such a departure from "business as usual" and it would really build some interest in the brand. If the Twins can execute this maneuver, they would instantly become the most interesting franchise in baseball. Signing Robinson Cano is a social contract with the fans and I would love to sign on that dotted line. Now, who wants to help me track down some penguins?
  24. Brad Swanson
    Originally posted at K-Slow was Framed!
     
    YOYOYO everybody! The offseason is upon us and the Twins have a lot of work to do. Coming off of another raging failure, the Front Office will need to pull off some sweet moves in order to make this team a contender. I have no clue what they will do and I have no desire to guess (at least not until later). Instead, I thought it would be fun to head back down Memory Lane and analyze each offseason since the Twins' last World Series. I'm not going to get too bogged down in the minor moves, but I'll investigate the moves that shaped the franchise and led us to where we are today. Strap in.
     
    State of the Team
     
    1991 Record: 95-67, first in the American League!
    1991 Overview: Uh, they won the World Series, which is pretty good.
    1992 Outlook: Strong
     
    Players Lost - Free Agency
     
    The Twins lost a starting outfielder, a workhorse starting pitcher, a former ERA champion, and a guy who once caught a ball while running on the rolled-up tarp (at least, that's how I remember it).
     
    Dan Gladden wasn't very good by 1991. His 80 OPS+ in 1991 was brutal and his defense wasn't great. He only made slightly over a million bucks, but that was a decent chunk of cash in those days. The Twins basically replaced Gladden with Pedro Munoz, who posted a 96 OPS+ in 1992. Munoz had more power, but somehow was worse at getting on-base. Kind of a wash, but at least Munoz was younger/cheaper.
     
    Jack Morris' last act of business with the Twins was pitching 10 innings in Game 7 and leaving with a World Series win. Morris was basically a mercenary and left after one historic season. The Twins basically replaced him with John Smiley (more on him later) and Smiley was great. Morris' 1991 and Smiley's 1992 were eerily similar, although Smiley was 10 years younger.
     
    The Twins also lost Allan Anderson, who had won the ERA title in 1988 and won 33 games between 1988 and 1989. He also hadn't pitched well since then. Al Newman and Junior Ortiz left, but they were bench players. They also lost Steve Bedrosian and Terry Leach from the bullpen.
     
    Players Gained - Free Agency
     
    The Twins did not make a big splash in free agency. I know. I'm shocked too. Although, the year before, they had signed Chili Davis and Jack Morris, so maybe this isn't a fair fake shock at this time. The Twins did bring Brian Harper and Mike Pagliarulo back. Harper was his typical mustachioed, high-contact self and Pagliarulo was just mustachioed and literally nothing else.
     
    Here's a list of players the Twins signed during this offseason: Bob Kipper, Luis Quinones, Mauro Gozzo, Donnie Hill, Keith Hughes and Bill Krueger. It's hard to add that much talent and incorporate it successfully within the existing team. Krueger was decent, going 10-6 with a 4.30 ERA in 27 starts. Kipper was ok, with a 4.42 ERA in 38.2 innings. The other four guys made little impact. Although, Gozzo didn't walk a single batter in 1992! What control! He only threw 1.2 innings and gave up seven hits, but still, no walks! Reverse Moneyball! Plus, he has a great name.
     
    TRADEZ!
     
    Trades are exciting. The Twins made two significant trades during the 1991 offseason and both trades happened during Spring Training.
     
    On March 17, 1992, the Twins traded Midre Cummings and Denny Neagle to the Pirates for John Smiley. As I stated earlier, Smiley was great for the Twins in 1992. He replaced Jack Morris handily. Of course, he left for the Reds after the '92 season, so that kind of sucked. Cummings had a long career, mostly as a reserve. NBD. The Twins may regret trading Neagle though. It took a few years, but Neagle blossomed into a really good pitcher. From 1995-2000, he was 89-47 and posted a 3.64 ERA in just under 1200 innings. You may remember 1995-2000 as the "whatever the opposite of glory years" era of Twins baseball.
     
    Less than two weeks later, the Twins traded Paul Sorrento to the Indians for Curt Leskanic and Oscar Munoz. Leskanic never pitched for the Twins and Munoz threw 35.1 mediocre innings in 1995. Sorrento was blocked by Kent Hrbek, so it made sense to get some value for him. Sorrento wasn't a bad player though. For the next six seasons, he posted a .267/.347/.477 triple slash, hit 129 home runs and had 439 RBI.
     
    From 1992-1994, Sorrento and Hrbek were basically the same offensive player. Hrbek had a slightly higher OBP, but Sorrento had a better batting average. Both hit 50 home runs and drove in around 190. Both had a 112 OPS+. Sorrento was six years younger and quite a bit cheaper. I'm not saying, I'm just saying.
     
    Biggest Splash
     
    The Smiley trade qualifies as a splash. Smiley made $3.4 million and cost the team two decent prospects. He was coming off a 20-win season and a third place Cy Young finish. The trade worked out really well in 1992, but definitely hurt in the long-term. Had the Twins extended Smiley, it might look different in hindsight. Smiley was awful in 1993 (likely because he missed the culture of the Twin Cities), but then great from 1994-1996. Back to '92, the Twins lost Morris and needed a replacement to defend their World Series crown. Smiley fit the bill quite nicely.
     
    Biggest Miss
     
    The Twins gave Bob Kipper a million bucks and I can't really see why. I'm not old enough to remember Kipper, but looking at his Baseball Reference page, I can't figure out why he was worth signing. I know the Twins had lost Bedrosian and Leach, but Kipper just doesn't look good on paper. He wasn't awful, but he wasn't good either. Kipper was fine until July, when he completely fell apart. The Twins released him on July 31 and he never pitched another MLB inning. He literally disappeared (not literally, or at all).
     
    My Own Personal Heartbreak
     
    I was ten, Dan Gladden had a mullet and I was only human. Gladden leaving saddened me.
     
    Arbitrary Overall Assessment: C+
     
    The Twins didn't do anything of note, but they did replace Morris with Smiley. The team was already really talented, so that, plus minor tweaks was really all that needed to be done. Did it work out? Well, somewhat. The '92 Twins were really good, just not as good as the A's. They missed the playoffs and wouldn't get back for over a decade.
     
    Next week, we'll look at the 1992 offseason. See you then!
  25. Brad Swanson

    October Mailbag!

    By Brad Swanson,

    Originally posted at The Slow
     
    I can't believe that October is upon us! The 2013 season went by so quickly. I am already enjoying playoff baseball and I thought that while I enjoy playoff baseball, I could answer a few questions that have been burning a hole in my inbox. As always, these are actual questions from actual readers of the Word documents that I use to compose my rough drafts.
     
    What is your outlook for the 2014 Twins?
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Initially, I thought that 2014 would be that year when the team starts to get good. I kind of envisioned a 2001 Twins team of sorts, where they are better than they had been, but still not good enough to make the playoffs. My expectations have changed a bit, mostly because the Major League team was so bad in the second half of 2013.
     
    However, I do hold out hope that the 2014 Twins could win 75-81 games. A lot depends on what the Twins do in free agency and with trades this off-season. If they can make some smart trades and pick up a piece or two, I think a 10-15 game improvement is possible. The Twins were 36-45 after 81 games. That 72-win pace doesn't meet my 75-81 number, but it shows that for half of the season, the Twins weren't terrible, they were just bad.
     
    Of course, the second half did happen and they only won 30 more games, for a 60-win pace. With a healthy Joe Mauer (hopefully), natural development from rookies like Oswaldo Arcia, Josmil Pinto, Aaron Hicks and Kyle Gibson, and the Twins' solid bullpen, I think the team can be a lot better than they were in 2013. If the Front Office picks up a good starting pitcher, then I really do think that 81 wins is possible.
     
    Likely? No.
     
    Brad, you are my idle. I kneed to know, who are you rooting for in the playoffs?
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    I tend to root for fan bases instead of teams. I am a fan, not a team. So, I usually gravitate toward the teams with the most tortured fan base. Generally, I pull for the team with the longest championship drought.
     
    I do have some exceptions though:
     

    I can't openly root for New York, Boston, Chicago or Los Angeles. Those fan bases have too many other successful teams in other sports. So, the Red Sox and Dodgers are out.
    I don't care for the Tomahawk Chop, so the Braves are out. It's a political stance I suppose, but really I just find it annoying.
    The Cardinals won a World Series like five days ago, so they're out.

     

    Technically, the Tigers have the longest World Series drought of all the AL teams. They also have a player on their team who I am not fond of. He shall remain nameless, in case his family reads this. Let's just say, I've heard things. Unpleasant things.
    The Rays have never won a World Series, so they seem like the logical pick. However, their fans are kind of sucky and the team hasn't been around very long.

    That leaves the Pirates in the NL and Oakland in the AL. Pittsburgh fits because they have a tortured fan base. Although, it is worth mentioning that the Steelers and Penguins have been really good the past decade. A Pittsburgh-Oakland World Series would be an advertiser's nightmare, but I would eat it up. I love how rowdy the Oakland fans are. Plus, have you been to Oakland? Would you go back? Let's give them something to enjoy.
     
    I can only assume that some other idiot will ask you who you are rooting for in the playoffs, but I want to know who you think will win the 2013 World Series. Mostly so I can point out how wrong you were when it doesn't happen.
     
    Brad S's Mom, St. Paul, MN
     
    I'll start by eliminating teams for arbitrary reasons:
     

    Tigers - Miguel Cabrera is hurt
    Red Sox - Clam chowder is gross
    A's - Moneyball
    Pirates - Tired of plundering
    Cardinals - They're old? They're probably old.
    Braves - Tomahawk chop again

    That leaves the Rays and the Dodgers. I like the Dodgers because they have Clayton Kershaw and I like the Rays because they are the smartest team in the history of civilization and they embrace math. If I was going to send my child to a school run by one of these teams, I'd pick the Rays. This isn't school! It's baseball, nerd! The Dodgers win because they know how to be cool. Yasiel Puig and whatnot.
    Do you know any talking pumas who also write about the Twins?
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    I actually did meet some talking pumas recently. In fact, I convinced each of them to write a Twins' 2013 season summary. Paul is an eternal optimist and you can read his review here. Peter says he's more realistic, but sometimes I think he's just negative. You can read his review here. If you enjoy their opinions, check in with my blog as I am working out twin 8 year, $184 million contracts for Paul and Peter to contribute regularly.
     
    The Twins outrighted Cole De Vries, Shairon Martis, Clete Thomas and Josh Roenicke from the 40-man roster earlier this week. Who will be joining them on the wrong side of the 40-man before the start of 2014?
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Those four guys are a good start. You won't regret losing any of them, if another team is doing a bunch of drugs and decides to claim them. If I had to guess, I'd say that the following fellows will be joining them at some point in the near future: B.J. Hermsen, Eric Fryer, Doug Bernier, and Darin Mastroianni. It's not a huge list and it's probably incomplete. I think that if the Twins need roster spots, there are plenty of other guys who could be gone. Mike Pelfrey shouldn't be retained, but who knows? There are plenty of replaceable guys on this team, that's why they haven't eclipsed 66 wins since 2010.
     
    Are you surprised that Ron Gardenhire will manage the Twins in 2014?
     
    Brad S., St. Paul, MN
     
    Not in the least. The Twins organization is very loyal and I think we all know that at this point. In some ways, it's a heelish move. I think the general fan attitude was that a change was needed or "heads should roll" if you prefer ancient justice to tactful sentiments. It could be that the team made this decision to stick it to the fans. More likely, it seems that this was a move made out of loyalty.
     
    I guess that's fine. It's not the statement that I would try to make though. If I had been the GM, here's how I would have handled Gardy's extension.
     

    Step 1 - Announce that the team has a new manager, but that he prefers to work under a mask
    Step 2 - Introduce said manager at an elaborate press conference
    Step 3 - Invite a fan to shake hands with the new manager at the press conference
    Step 4 - After the handshake, crush the fan over the head with the Golden Septor
    Step 5 - Call for the new manager to unmask, revealing Ron Gardenhire, but with a shaved head and black goatee
    Step 6 - Mudhole stomp the fan for 3-5 minutes, with Rick Anderson helping stomp the mudhole
    Step 7 - Declare Gardenhire the "Macho King" Ron Gardenhire and proceed with the season as such

    For me, that's just a better way to do things. I hate to question the Front Office though. I'm a traditionalist.
     
    Thanks for all the questions! If you ever truly want to ask me a question, you can send me an email at this fancy new email address: kevinsloweywasframed@gmail.com. Or, you can send me spam like everyone else.
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