John Bonnes

FWIW, in the story, I don't mention FanGraphs calculation. I haven't really studied it. IMHO, A decent, but not stellar right fielder whose defense (and positional flexibility) also helps, is probably worth $6-7M in the open market. Even if he's nothing more than a guy who mashes the strong side of the platoon, he's worth about that. And if he's not, he's not worth too much less - $4-5M would be the lower end, so at most they're burning a year or two. The non-monetary risk is that he never really develops enough to help a contending team. But if that happens, I still think its a tradeable contract to a team that is looking to fill a spot. Would he have gotten that contract from any other team if he was on the free agent market? Undoubtedly. Would he have agreed to it? I bet not.

The Twins announced long-term deals with Max Kepler and Jorge Polanco yesterday. Both are somewhat unusual players with whom to sign to a long-term deal, and thus required an unusual deal, which is fantastic, because truth is often found at the edges. Let’s look at how these contracts usually are structured, how Kepler’s is different, and what it says about the Twins and Kepler.MLB Salaries 101 Long-term contracts usually follow the same structure as a player’s natural earning power. For the first three years of a players service time, a player makes whatever the team wants, so long as it’s above the major league minumum. In years four through six, the player gets substantial raises, provided the club opts to retain him. The purpose of these raises is to get him close to what he would expect to make in free agency, which happens when he has six full years of service. An established young player could expect salaries that look something like this: Download attachment: Screenshot 2019-02-15 at 10.36.01 PM.png The long-term contract for an established young player usually mimics this, taking a little less in each year along with an option year on free agency. He does this because the money is guaranteed. Otherwise, if the player is hurt or never develops, the team can decide not to retain the player in those lucrative arbitration years. The team might also give a small signing bonus up front. So it might look like this: Download attachment: Screenshot 2019-02-15 at 10.36.01 PM (1).png An Unusual Challenge Kepler provides some unusual challenges to this structure. The first is procedural: Kepler is a Super-2 player, which means he got arbitration to start a year early. So even though he’s only in his third year, he was going to make $3.125M this year. The bigger issue is that Kepler is not an established young player. He’s made peripheral improvements in his nearly three years in MLB, but his numbers have essentially stayed steady and underwhelming. There’s a lot to like in his profile, and he just turned 26 years old this week, plus he’s relatively new to this baseball thing being from Germany. But the later years of a typical contract provide a significant challenge to the Twins. This year and next year were easy to work out. Even if Kepler doesn’t develop further this year, the Twins would almost surely offer him arbitration for next year, meaning he would get about $6M. His numbers are worth that, and he would be entering his 27-year-old season, which is still on the upswing of a baseball player’s career. But if he didn’t break through, there is a decent chance the Twins would not offer arbitration for the 2021 season. If they did, Kepler’s salary would be raised to $8-9M, he would be turning 28, and he would be a middling hitting corner outfielder, albeit with good defense. He might improve and be worth that money, but maybe not. And if he stays the course again, there is no way they offer him arbitration in his sixth year. That pessimistic career arc shows the challenge the Twins faced in working out a long-term deal. If Kepler doesn't develop, a typical long-term deal would really hurt them in the later years. A fiscally conservative (or if you prefer, “cheap”) team can’t guarantee $10M and $12M paydays to someone who might be a below average outfielder. The available spend every offseason is usually $20M - $60M for a team. Losing $10-12M of that hurts. On the other hand, losing $6M is probably acceptable, especially for a guy who at worst is a solid strong-side-of-the-platoon hitter with good defense. Which is why it’s now time add Kepler’s contract to the chart: Download attachment: Screenshot 2019-02-15 at 10.36.01 PM (2).png A Balanced Deal The Twins lock in a player that is arguably already worth $6-7M to a slew of $6-7M/year contracts. To do so, they pay him an extra $3M this year (remember, he was already going to make $3.25M), guarantee next year (which they almost surely would have done anyway), and then get two years of similar pay without having to worry if he takes a big leap forward. The only really risky year is Kepler’s 7th year, when they pay him $8.5M, so they’re betting on minor breakthrough sometime before he turns 30 years old. The Twins reward? If Kepler does take that giant leap, he’s a bargain, not just for this year and next (which he already was) but for FOUR more years. I’m a Max fan, admittedly, but even objectively that’s a good risk on a 26-year-old with really good plate discipline and power who has a career .730 OPS, even if he’s a career .233 hitter. And for Kepler? He’s guaranteed $35M, even if he never takes the next big step. That's nice. Plus, there’s some upside for him too, if he can look out that far ahead. He’ll be able to hit free agency as a 31-year-old, which is a plenty marketable age. If he’s hitting and if salaries bump up a bit, he could be in line for a deal worth twice as much. The Twins and Kepler have found a middle ground that balances the risk and reward each needed, despite Kepler not being the prototypical extension candidate. What’s more, it appears the Twins were able to do the same with Jorge Polanco, and tomorrow we’ll examine his contract a little more closely, to see what it tells us about the Twins tendencies. Click here to view the article

I always wondered what happened to Clete. He had that short run that showed so much promise.

Aaron and John talk about the Twins' PECOTA projections, expectations on Miguel Sano and Byron Buxton, signing Lucas Duda, payroll theories, buying into Willians Astudillo, and the intrigue of minor-league deals. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.Sponsored by Barrel Theory, Native, and Pick and Shovel. Click here to view the article

I always suspected that Falvey was an expert on his 80s era Marvel comic writers. If he has copies of Wolverine 1-4 stashed away somewhere, we may need to get an apartment together.

Aaron and John are at TwinsDaily's Winter Meltdown, interviewing Michael Cuddyer and Twins beat writers Dan Hayes, Betsy Helfand and Do-Hyoung Park. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.http://traffic.libsy...3?dest-id=74590 Click here to view the article

It was an incredible event at Brothers Bar & Grill on Saturday night as Twins Daily readers were joined by Michael Cuddyer to talk Hot Stove and start gearing up for the 2019 season. Thank you so much to everyone who attended and to all our sponsors for making it happen.This year’s Winter Meltdown included two free 612 Brew craft beers, a free Winter Meltdown pint glass, drink specials, a Pick & Shovel prize pack, autographed prizes and swag from Pizza Luce. We also had a panel discussion with our new Twins beat writers - Betsy Helfand of The Pioneer Press, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. But Michael Cuddyer was the headliner and lived up to every kind word that was written about him over his 15-year major league career. He entertained on stage, wandered through the crowd, had endless pictures taken with fans and even performed a magic trick for some of Twins Daily's forum moderators. If you want to be part of the fun, you can download the Gleeman and the Geek podcast of the event and start looking forward to next year. You can also participate in Fan Duel's Winter Meltdown Contest and win an autographed picture of Justin Morneau. Thank you to all those who came and all those who continue to support Twins Daily with their work and attention. We could not do any of this without you. Click here to view the article

The tickets were won by Rick Trueman. Congrats Rick! You have an email waiting for you.

Just because you didn’t attend the Winter Meltdown, doesn’t mean you can’t join in some of the fun and win some cool stuff. Meltdown sponsor Fan Duel has opened up a private Twins Daily contest around the big game, exclusive to our readers, and not only can you win money but you can win this Justin Morneau signed picture.Just click on this link to head over to our private Twins Daily contest. You’ll pick the five players you think will have the biggest impact in next Sunday’s big game and then get: A $10 bonus for signing up,Big cash prizes if you win (and remember, it’s a game only for Twins Daily readers and Gleeman and Geek listeners)Bragging rights on Twins DailyPlus, we’ll randomly pick someone to send the Justin Morneau-signed picture.It does not get any better than this, and Fan Duel makes it so fun and so easy to play. If you like analyzing sports, you’re going to love Fan Duel. So join the party and Enter our private contest Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about the Twins signing Martin Perez just seconds before the show started, the nearly empty free agent reliever shelves, why the Twins' lack of spending should leave fans disappointed, returning to KFAN for another season on the radio, selling out the Winter Meltdown, and Willians Astudillo finishing runner-up to Delmon Young. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. Click here to view the article

But of course, they didn't really need to invest heavily in multi-year contracts. They could have added any number of solid relievers or starting pitchers with a one or two-year commitment. It may be that they tried and failed, similar to a roto owner realizing he has way too much of his budget leftover and very few desirable players left. I don't know if screwing up is better than being cheap, but a sub-$100M payroll is just embarrassing for a team whose core players are not into their arbitration years.

The Winter Meltdown sold out of $40 tickets, but Fan HQ can still set you up, and for FREE! Just enter the Fan HQ Giveaway here and you can win four free tickets to our big winter event. You'll be in town anyway for Twins Fest, so just walk over to Brother's Bar & Grill on Saturday (1/26) at 5 and join us, Michael Cuddyer, ........the new Twins beat writers, and revel in two free 612 Brew craft beers, a free pint glass, drink specials, Pick & Shovel prize pack, autographed prizes, and pizza swag. Giveaway ends 10 PM CST on Tuesday 1/22. This is the last way you can get tickets to the Meltdown. Enter now! Click here to view the article

We're sorry, but we're sold out! Thank you to those who bought tickets and we'll see you along with Michael Cuddyer, the new Twins beat writers, two free 612 Brew craft beers, the free pint glass, drink specials, Pick & Shovel prize pack, autographed prizes, and pizza swag. This is going to be the best Winter Meltdown yet.Twins Daily’s Winter Meltdown will be January 26th from 5:00-7:30 at Brother’s Bar & Grill. You’ll be in town going to TwinsFest anyway, so stop by and bask in the warm glow of the hot stove with other Twins fanatics. Again, we're sorry, but tickets are sold out. Click here to view the article

Aaron and John talk about Blake Parker joining the Twins' bullpen, Miguel Sano and Willians Astudillo making winter ball headlines, announcing Michael Cuddyer as the Winter Meltdown special guest, arbitration settlements, Brian Dozier's new home, and the earliest over/under lines. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link.Sponsored by Away Traveland Harry's Razor's. Click here to view the article

Twins Daily is very happy to announce that Michael Cuddyer, Minnesota Twins slugger, All-Star and magician, will be joining us as our special guest at the Winter Meltdown. Remaining tickets for the event go on sale tomorrow (Tuesday, the 15th) at 8 AM and are expected to sell out fast. Cuddyer is a fan favorite, but there will be a lot of fan favorites at this year’s meltdown.This year’s Winter Meltdown includes two free 612 Brew craft beers, a free Winter Meltdown pint glass, drink specials, a Pick & Shovel prize pack, autographed prizes and swag from Pizza Luce. We’ll also have a panel discussion with our new Twins beat writers - Betsy Helfand of The Pioneer Press, Do-Hyoung Park of MLB.com and Dan Hayes of The Athletic. Plus, we are very excited to have Michael Cuddyer join the Meltdown as our special guest. Cuddyer played in the major leagues for 15 years, including 11 with the Minnesota Twins from 2001 through 2011. He was a two-time All-Star, Silver Slugger Award winner and even received MVP votes. He ranks 12th all-time in home runs for the Twins. He was elected to the team's Hall of Fame in 2017 and now serves as a special assistant in the front office. You won’t want to miss this event. Twins Daily’s Winter Meltdown will be January 26th from 5:00-7:30 at Brother’s Bar & Grill. You’ll be in town going to TwinsFest anyway, so stop by and bask in the warm glow of the hot stove with other Twins fanatics. Again: tickets go on sale at Twins Daily at 8:00 on Tuesday the 15th right here for $40. Click here to view the article