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John Bonnes

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Everything posted by John Bonnes

  1. Aaron and John talk about Chris Paddack's elbow problem, Yennier Cano's debut, the Twins getting swept by the Astros, the roster having a Triple-A feel because of so many injuries, the odds of Royce Lewis sticking around, and Alex Kirilloff's struggles. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  2. (*Get it? Fielding? Little baseball pun there. It's well known that The Baseball Gods love baseball puns.) The team didn't look "for real" last night against the Astros and Justin Verlander, but Verlander clearly has some celestial blood running through his veins. He's 39, coming off Tommy John surgery, leads MLB in innings pitched, and has a 1.55 ERA. If that doesn't whisper "demigod," you deserve whatever wrath those Divine Deities of the Diamond throw your way. But despite last night, the Twins are for real. I won't suggest the path will be an easy one because I don't want to assume that the Twins players won't continue to drop like flies. (The Baseball Gods hate it when you assume your team's players won't drop like flies.) And because The Baseball Gods love stats (they work overtime devising new stats), let's look at a few. Twins run differential +35 Runs are the currency by which wins are purchased. I think Bill James wrote that, and if so, I'm sure it'll be referenced when The Baseball Gods consider him for Assumption. Runs tend to stay in sync with win-loss records. If they don't, one or the other is likely to adjust. But they're in lockstep for the Twins. Given how many 1-run games the Twins have recently won (seven in a row), they might feel like they're getting a little lucky. And they are. The crazy endings versus the White Sox and Tigers were undoubtedly The Baseball Gods entertaining themselves. But their run differential, which ranks third in the American League, suggests the team is also pretty good. Twins record vs teams better than .500 = 5-3 Doubters love to look at a team's record against winning teams, but the Twins are one of only three teams better than .500 versus winning teams. That can be a tricky stat. Some teams go back and forth over that line. For instance, the Twins are 3-0 versus the White Sox, who are precisely .500 when I'm writing this. If they win one more game, the Twins' record improves to 8-3, which is even better. AL Central's cumulative record = 12 games below .500 The Baseball God hate taking opponents for granted. But they also hate the hubris that can result from leading a bad division. So let's be clear: the AL Central is bad. The Twins need to take advantage of that. The Twins get to play 67 more games against the worst division in the American League. Finishing atop that division doesn't guarantee any postseason success (a fact that The Baseball Gods have emphasized mercilessly for the Twins' last 18 postseason games), but it still punches a postseason ticket. The news gets better. There are also three Wild Card teams in the postseason this year. While the Yankees, Rays, and Jays are scrapping, the Twins will be competing with the Guardians and White Sox for a high 80s win total. So put me in the "cautiously optimistic" category about the Twins' chances this year because that is as high a category as The Baseball Gods condone. It might even be too high. (After all, they were already merciful once in that category. Remember, we were "cautiously optimistic" about Buxton's knee.) But to be safe, let's sit and watch and enjoy the season. The Baseball Gods love that.
  3. The AL Champion Astros are in town, proving again that The Baseball Gods answer prayers. They've been fielding* the same invocation from Twins fans: are the first place Twins for real? Like for real, for real? This series should give a hint. (*Get it? Fielding? Little baseball pun there. It's well known that The Baseball Gods love baseball puns.) The team didn't look "for real" last night against the Astros and Justin Verlander, but Verlander clearly has some celestial blood running through his veins. He's 39, coming off Tommy John surgery, leads MLB in innings pitched, and has a 1.55 ERA. If that doesn't whisper "demigod," you deserve whatever wrath those Divine Deities of the Diamond throw your way. But despite last night, the Twins are for real. I won't suggest the path will be an easy one because I don't want to assume that the Twins players won't continue to drop like flies. (The Baseball Gods hate it when you assume your team's players won't drop like flies.) And because The Baseball Gods love stats (they work overtime devising new stats), let's look at a few. Twins run differential +35 Runs are the currency by which wins are purchased. I think Bill James wrote that, and if so, I'm sure it'll be referenced when The Baseball Gods consider him for Assumption. Runs tend to stay in sync with win-loss records. If they don't, one or the other is likely to adjust. But they're in lockstep for the Twins. Given how many 1-run games the Twins have recently won (seven in a row), they might feel like they're getting a little lucky. And they are. The crazy endings versus the White Sox and Tigers were undoubtedly The Baseball Gods entertaining themselves. But their run differential, which ranks third in the American League, suggests the team is also pretty good. Twins record vs teams better than .500 = 5-3 Doubters love to look at a team's record against winning teams, but the Twins are one of only three teams better than .500 versus winning teams. That can be a tricky stat. Some teams go back and forth over that line. For instance, the Twins are 3-0 versus the White Sox, who are precisely .500 when I'm writing this. If they win one more game, the Twins' record improves to 8-3, which is even better. AL Central's cumulative record = 12 games below .500 The Baseball God hate taking opponents for granted. But they also hate the hubris that can result from leading a bad division. So let's be clear: the AL Central is bad. The Twins need to take advantage of that. The Twins get to play 67 more games against the worst division in the American League. Finishing atop that division doesn't guarantee any postseason success (a fact that The Baseball Gods have emphasized mercilessly for the Twins' last 18 postseason games), but it still punches a postseason ticket. The news gets better. There are also three Wild Card teams in the postseason this year. While the Yankees, Rays, and Jays are scrapping, the Twins will be competing with the Guardians and White Sox for a high 80s win total. So put me in the "cautiously optimistic" category about the Twins' chances this year because that is as high a category as The Baseball Gods condone. It might even be too high. (After all, they were already merciful once in that category. Remember, we were "cautiously optimistic" about Buxton's knee.) But to be safe, let's sit and watch and enjoy the season. The Baseball Gods love that. View full article
  4. Aaron and John talk about the Twins' streak of one-run wins, Carlos Correa's injury and Royce Lewis' debut, Jose Miranda stepping in for Miguel Sano, Gilberto Celestino swimming instead of sinking, and Josh Winder and Jhoan Duran remaking the pitching staff on the fly. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  5. Aaron and John talk about the Twins' rise to first place in the AL Central, Aaron's return from the injured list, Jose Miranda's big-league debut, Miguel Sano's knee injury, Jhoan Duran's first chance in the closer role, and how this team is starting to resemble the early 2000s version. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  6. Aaron and John talk about the Twins' ongoing hitting issues, Byron Buxton's return, Joe Ryan's slider, Nick Gordon's upside, Jhoan Duran's new bullpen role, and Lewis Thorpe's release. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  7. Aaron and John talk about Byron Buxton's knee injury, Alex Kirilloff's wrist injury, Trevor Larnach's return to the majors, Jhoan Duran's future role, and Clayton Kershaw's perfect game that was never going to happen. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  8. Aaron and John compare notes on the Minnesota Twins' opening weekend, including Byron Buxton's superhero origin story, the surprising trade of Taylor Rogers, and Gary Sanchez's redemption tour. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  9. Nick Nelson and John Bonnes explore the most memorable moments of the 2005 season: Johan Santana unfairly losing the Cy Young to Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse infamously taking a baseball bat to manager Ron Gardenhire's door, Carlos Silva's minimalist complete game, and more. View full video
  10. Nick Nelson and John Bonnes explore the most memorable moments of the 2005 season: Johan Santana unfairly losing the Cy Young to Bartolo Colon, Kyle Lohse infamously taking a baseball bat to manager Ron Gardenhire's door, Carlos Silva's minimalist complete game, and more.
  11. Aaron and John evaluate the addition of Chris Archer, speculate on the Minnesota Twins' final roster moves, and then give their over/under picks on the American League teams, including the Twins' 2022 win total. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  12. John Bonnes and Nick Nelson explore the best players of the Minnesota Twins' 2005 season, which including a breakout season from sophomore Joe Mauer. But leading the charge that season was the best pitcher in baseball during the mid-2000s, Johan Santana. View full video
  13. John Bonnes and Nick Nelson explore the best players of the Minnesota Twins' 2005 season, which including a breakout season from sophomore Joe Mauer. But leading the charge that season was the best pitcher in baseball during the mid-2000s, Johan Santana.
  14. I wonder if the new rules banning the shift might help Kepler considerably starting in 2023.
  15. Aaron and John recap all thing Carlos Correa, wonder if help is still coming for the Twins' rotation, and discuss other notes from spring training. You can listen by downloading us from iTunes, Spotify, Stitcher, iHeartRadio or find it at GleemanAndTheGeek.com. Or just click this link. View full article
  16. Nick Nelson and John Bonnes move to the 2005 season, which saw the end of three consecutive AL Central championships for the team. But in a brighter light, it was also the first full season from the next wave of Twins players; both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau played their first full seasons in a Twins uniform that year. View full video
  17. Nick Nelson and John Bonnes move to the 2005 season, which saw the end of three consecutive AL Central championships for the team. But in a brighter light, it was also the first full season from the next wave of Twins players; both Joe Mauer and Justin Morneau played their first full seasons in a Twins uniform that year.
  18. Fortunately, the sabermetrics on this doesn’t require a spreadsheet. In fact, it requires one hand. Just count the number of games between off days a team has, and when you run out of fingers – that means you need a fifth starter. Then keep counting, until you run into an off day or run out of fingers again. But since we do love us some spreadsheets, here’s a data table of the strings of games the Twins play, starting with their second game of the season: Games in a Row 5th Starts Needed Notes 5 1 vs SEA, vs LAD 10 2 at BOS, at KC, vs CWS 13 3 vs DET, at TB, at BAL, vs OAK 9 1 vs HOU, vs CLE, at OAK 18 3 18 games in 17 days In the Twins' first 29 games, they’ll need a 5th starter five times, which is just one time less than they’ll need the other four starters. There’s almost no reason to even juggle anyone around. That’s all before mid-May. The Twins just aren’t blessed with too many off days early in the season. To be fair, all of MLB is playing a slightly condensed schedule, trying to fit three extra games into their previous schedule. (The other three CBA impacted games are being added to the end of the schedule.) But that isn’t even really the problem for the Twins. They just had a fairly heavy April and May schedule to begin with. On the other hand – sometimes, it rains. That can be especially true in April for teams in the AL Central, and especially in Minnesota. Having just one game canceled in that first series, and one more during that first road trip, could buy the Twins a little more time. But that can’t be the plan. This is a bad schedule to engage when facing rotation questions. If you’re looking for a further reason the Twins need to still address their starting rotation, you can add their lack of early off-days toward the bottom of that already formidable list. MORE FROM TWINS DAILY Latest Twins coverage from our writers Recent Twins discussion in our forums Follow Twins Daily via Twitter, Facebook, or email
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